market a full slate of earnings it is august 1st hopefully the stragglers are not too many. house speaker nancy pelosi arrived in asia. she's expected to visit taiwan and a move that china is warning against for weeks. details straight ahead. covid rebound. president biden cancelling several public events after testing positive again over the weekend. it is monday, august 1st, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live in the nasdaq market site in times square.

becky is off today we have three and a half hours to go. things open down nasdaq looking to open 28 points s&p off 7 points treasury yields as we speak. the 10-year treasury at 2.659. looking at the 5-year and 2-year the inversion there. take a look at gas prices. you get gas over the weekend i did. i saw it aaa saying the national average is $4.21 for a gallon. that is down from over $5 per gallon in june you can look at crude prices wti is $96.86. >> 2.65 on the 10-year treasury. a ship carrying grain left the port of odessa on the black

sea. the first ship to leave the ukrainian port since russia invaded. the ship was allowed to leave under the agreement with ukraine and russia brokered by u.n it is carrying 26,000 tons of corn and headed for lebanon. >> joe said at the top of the hour, house speaker nancy pelosi beginning a tour of asia yesterday. officials say they expect to include a stop in taiwan the congressional delegation is visiting singapore today after stopping in hawaii yesterday china's communist party is warning against visiting china vowing to take forceful measures if the speaker visits why visit? the only thing now is everybody

baiting each other >> did someone get to you over the weekend? do you think we should allow her to get bullied >> no. >> why >> it is insignificant i don't want -- >> why do you think -- >> ti prefer not to get into the situation. >> it is weird the way things always align people like mccarthy -- take your pick. anyone who says -- >> don't back down make the trip. >> i support the speaker you go tom freedman last week? it's weird. >> tom why? >> it is an important -- >> why >> you talked about chips. >> what is it important for her

to be there? one day for a photo op >> if she had it planned and rationale where she could go and thought it was important then china says don't do it. we say okay. then it is -- >> i learned you have to pick your fights over the years this is not one that is worth picking. in the prior issues with china >> this is the most powerful democrats in the world you will not back her and country? she thinks it is important to go i personally am with the speaker 100% president biden is isolating in the white house after testing positive for covid again on saturday his doctor said he has no symptoms

a small percentage of patients treated with paxlovid who experience a rebound the pathology of covid is weird. an ace inhibitor which makes it difficult for a virus to replicate. this is not a medical -- i'm not a doctor i can't tell you so if you defeat the virus using it, it helps the immune system and it does not have to do as much >> you don't go into overdrive >> so you come back and the immune system is not ready the first time around, we didn't have to be part of the -- >> that's my understanding for the president and everybody, maybe the does avedosage is too

short? we don't know that >> he's had how many boosters? now had it twice. >> i had boosters. >> so have i i've had it. i feel good. i like my natural immunity we have a story. this may turn out to be the biggest story in business this week new developments in a lawsuit against porn hub mind geek it is something to do with visa. a judge talking about whether visa intentionally helped monetize child porn. a judge denied the payment company's motion to be dropped from the suit. this would be holding visa accountable for what happened on porn hub visa kept in the case because it

is alleged to have continued to recognize as a merchant an immense well known business that it knew used its web sites to host and mondetize child porn the alleged knowledge there was a wealth of child porn on mind geek's web site. bill ackman tweeted and calling visa's behavior inexcusable saying this could cause damage and criminal liability for the board. potentially the executives the statement to cnbc, the spokesperson said this ruling is disappointing and mischaracterizes the role. visa will not tolerate illegal activity we will speak to the lead attorney michael bowe.

it is an important case because it could hold visa and mastercard and financial services companies accountable for wrongdoing that happen as a result of the financial payment. in this case, you might remember nick kristoff wrote a piece exposing what was happening on the porn citesites and how theye used for child trafficking what happened in the aftermath of that was visa and mastercard decided to stop doing business with those companies because they realized there was illegal activity on the sites. however, interestingly enough, after the hubbub visa went back

with the money involved. the decision is fascinating because it roots out the issue and one of the ways to do it is for the financial networks to take responsibility saying there is illegal activity. we don't want to be in business with them. it talks about the role of the financial services companies of the world. >> when you publish the web sites. the top five are porn sites. there is big money there how do they aggregate the content? similar to other things where they have a codray of people how does it slip through people lie about their age or something? >> no, no, no.

in this case, from reading the decision and the various documents in the case, it sounds like executives and people were working at porn hub reloading and people tag the material with words to suggest to the public what is going on >> there must be a way of knowing what is going on and allowing the most -- >> some of the requirements for, you know, the people uploading material, they ask their age that doesn't help. >> it is the public can put things on porn hub >> having read through the whole thing and this having not been experienced with this thing. >> you have no experience with child porn that's good, andrew.

>> it is hard to understand how it works it sounds like -- >> people can upload thing user generated content >> some element of that. an advertising kickback. the company that owns porn hub created the advertisingbusines which also, of course, to advertise on that network, you use your credit card to buy the advertising. the advertising -- a whole sequence of thing going on this was about the case moving forward. what was unique about the decision is the judge basically said what he thinks. interestingly, republican judge, federal court, made this decision thus far it doesn't say where he will finally come out most cases are about motion to dismiss the case and they say we

will keep going with the case. this is like let me tell you. >> porn hub is the most popular. there are 20 others? >> it is precedent setting in that regard. this is the point that you sue bill ackman and others making the point online over the weekend. that is could the board be held accountable? could the ceo be held accountable criminalcriminally we have laws good child porn in the country that are strict. anything you do to allow that to take place there is question for liability with the company >> i hope the law stays. do you see where they talk about child love like it is something advanced society comes to grips

with we know which side of the aisle that comes from. kind of like cannabolism >> we will talk more about the case >> it's bizarre. >> the role of visa and mastma mastercard think about what other potential industries could face. when we return, jobs in focus. the squawk planner the future is down right now 12 points. in that matches the rain outside. s&p off. not pouring. that's the point. we will get comments from minneapolis fed president neel

kashkari bcsqwkoxontching "ua b" cn >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities

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blizzard a lot of people interested in the company. it will be taken over. we will see if it will an awai regulatory caterpillar and dupont and jetblue with the deal with spirit and march riott before te bell we will hear from yum brands and under armour and robinhood we get eli lily and then draft kings and amc and cinemark we get the jobs july report on friday no adp private payroll report. you marked your calendar the company is still working to

retool the methodology >> okay. whatever maybe we won't need it the next month. we will retool our technology. we won't need adp. are these regular calendar year companies that are not ready by august 1st with reports? a lot are retailers. fiscal years are different this could be a quarter ended in july. >> are you asking why? >> why they expect us to jump when they totally miss the reporting period and we are still supposed -- why can't you get it done? if it ended in july, why >> about when they think they get air time not on cnbc. elsewhere. >> most people, if your quarter ends in june, how long does it take to do taxes do you get extensions?

>> of course >> so do i >> this is an extension. >> if they miss the july 31st deadline, we shouldn't report. you missed we'll catch you next time for the next quarter we'll report those you missed your window i'm sorry. a lot of them would be happy a couple from last week. neel kashkari says the central bank is committed to the goal of 2% neel thinks we are a bit away from there. >> we are going to do everything we can to avoid recession. we are committed to bringing inflation down and we are going to do what we need to do we are a long way away from achieving 2% inflation that's where we need to get. >> good headline, andrew i don't need a calculator.

9% minus 2%. are we seven points away in your m mind give or way. we are a long way away let's talk to sri. president of global strategies they put the wrong -- spelled wrong. sri, why do you think 3.5% >> you mentioned to joe in the beginning you have 9.1% inflation. you are far away much higher inflation rate mention you are earning a high negative return on the 10-year

v investment you look at the bond rally look at what happened after the fed finished talking the rally gathered the team as the press conference ended and he was talking about the slowing of the economy and talking about the fact as the increase of interest rates and rate of change will slow down. this man is no paul volcker. he did not have to say that now. he was supposed to say inflation was paramount concern. suddenly it switched to growth and recession. you mentioned kashkari int interview. he said he was surprised why the markets rallied in the last couple of days of the week i can tell him why it rallied. it rallied because every indication he was going to back

off. if he is going to back off 75 basis point increases in the future, you may have a rally for some point in time continuing. as inflation stays high and you have the issues with natural gas and oil and food prices and rent, you will see the 10-year treasury rise again. that clearly, joe, is why i'm sticking with 3.50 on the 10-year treasury >> based on how sticky the inflation situation is i don't know if we know, sri go ahead >> what we know, it may not be 9.1% it may be 8.76%. you are not saying hallelujah because it came down it is still way too high unless you get anywhere near 3% or 4% and suggesting it is going to 2 is when i would change again

remember, i changed my expectation on bond yield in early 2021 there was a reason to that today there is no reason to change my forecast >> the old saying. why do you change? the facts change in the past, you had calls against the grain. remember, you said we will stay below 2 for a long time and we did. did this surprise you that we were on the way to 3.5 now it is 2.65 what do you attribute that to, sri? the perception of the global slowdown and then china with the lockdowns and combination of all these things that is a quick drop back to 2.65 that not many would predicted. >> i did not expect it in the short-term

i did not expect the movement to 3.50 to be smooth. i did not expect this big a drop >> why what's behind it >> one reason is the press conference and the second one is people talk in terms of recession coming recession is cut total demand. inflation comes down and brings down the bond yield with it. that is the reasoning because of the toek10-year treasury coming down we are not in recession. we are in stagflation which we have not had since the late '70s you have recession combined with high inflation because of the fact a few i ttems refuse to co down in price. oil, natural gas, food, rent when you have a combination of recession and inflation, bond yields rise.

they don't come down. >> sri, we will check back we'll be at 3.50 before 2.50 you promise me that? can we bet some money? >> i cannot promise you that if you have one more jay powell statement or miscue. below 2.50 before year end. >> you know it is august 1st today. >> right i have a few months to go. >> below 2.50. that's whacko. sri, we'll check back with you interesting. >> thank you, joe. >> you're welcome. thanks. high profile anti-trust trial kicking off today. what you need to know about the case against united health. join us for the small business playbook on wednesday we'll offer insight and advice

from top experts on how businesses can hedge inflation and labor challenges and more. we're back after this. >> announcer: what's working is sponsored by comcast business. bounce forward at comcastbusiness.com. so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

welcome back to "squawk box. the anti-trust gacase against united health begins today we have bertha coombs with more on the breakdown >> andrew, i'm nin d.c when they wanted to get an assistance to the hospitals fast, they helped out. now the giants have too big a role with data the division is allowed to complete the deal to buy rival

the merger would give them 75% market share in the business they process claims that are not united getting access to the data could give uhc an unfair advantage according to the government. united health care diffivested that the doj says that would not stop optum from replicating it. they operate fire walls to prevent unfair practices and the ceo said the customers include other insurers do well when they do well. >> our external growth to non uhc business was the same rate as internal growth or partner growth rate. that is important. what that shows is all sorts of

united health care are choosing to work with optum >> the company may call witty and the former ceo to testify in defense. the trial is expected to go through august 16th with the doj presenting its case this week. andrew. >> how quickly will we get a final verdict? >> good question a bench trial. it is up to the judge. they will be looking over the evidence to see if they can e excise the claims. five years ago, you saw united competitors getting blocked on the deals with fellow insurers united health has been rolling up services and now they are doing a deal with in-services they are now coming up on road blocks >> thank you, bertha coombs. and record profits from

energy companies and likely to draw more scrutiny from washington as energy costs are high more on that after the break. later, we talk inflation with white house economic v adviser heather boushey. welcome d . oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. ♪♪

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the dow is opening up flat you see the s&p down 7 democrats health care and climate package relies on raising revenue from the country's biggest companies. read the journal today and we have ylan mui with more. ylan >> reporter: good morning, joe democrats plan for a new corporate minimum tax to hit the manufacturing industry hardest that is according to the joint committee. under the proposal, the companies would have to pay a 15% tax rate that means between 150 and 200 companies would need to pony up.

half of them in the manufacturing sector tech and media make up 11% another 11% are holding companies and wholesale and retail firms are impacted too. republicans are slamming the idea the risk of raising taxes ahead of a recession this is the proposal that all 50 senate democrats could agree on. manchin said it is closing a loophole and krysten sinema called this a common sense step. she did say that nine months ago and hasn't committed to supporting it now. she is waiting for the senate parliament to scrub the act before announcing her decision democrats are hoping that process wraps up soon to vote this week. back to you. >> ylan, thank you i appreciate that. let's talk energy debate exxon and chevron with profits in the second quarter which

could bring scrutiny from washington we have heidi heitkamp who is the founder of the one country project. we have former senator and governor of new hampshire. thank you for joining us we have a debate about this if we are not having it already with the role and responsibility of the companies heidi, i'll start with you >> i think that -- i think joe made a good point a couple of minutes ago about profitability of oil companies we can't look at a couple of quarters i know i sound more like judd than heidi at the same time you are asking the companies to invest in a new economy and invest in new drilling and investment and if you focus on one quarter saying it is all their fault, you

really miss the bigger picture i think it is really important we start talking about notinves investment a lot are looking to see the transition through this is not just profitability, but the supply and economics and investment decisions that will have to be made in order to provide energy and security for america in the future. >> judd, we will see kumbaya this morning >> i agree with heidi on that point. you know, what you focus on here is the hypocrisy of the argument look at the bill proposed by schumer and manchin. they will take $700 billion out of the productive side of the economy and put it into the dependency and subsidy side of

the economy. how inefficient is that? that undermines profits. that's a good way to do it i didn't realize profits were bad. basically, a company can't function if it doesn't profit. who gets the profits the people who work for the company? the shareholders of the company. they are not toeing the esg line it is a lot of hypocrisy that the oil companies are making money and two years ago they were losing money and three years from now they will lose money again especially if esg is moving their way. >> what is the answer when it comes to the high prices we're seeing do you believe companies can gouge? is your view that gouging is a misnomer it means the market is what it is >> the gouging is a new york

times word no a practical matter, prices are coming down. why are they coming down the market is responding demand destruction occurring across oil and gas and that reduces prices production is slowly going up. 750 rigs that is the market working the way it is supposed to work i expect the price of gas will be down to $80 a barrel before fall that is where the companies make money, but don't make a huge amount of money. that's where you get the supply you need to run a very modern economy. you can't run this economy on windmills and solar panels >> heidi, it may be a curve ball, i'll move the topic for a second we were talking earlier and i want your view before we finish out. what do you think of nancy pelosi going to taiwan

>> i think what was bad about that is the announcement and the publicity leading up to it i think if she thinks it is important to show that level of support, she should go the overemphasis you hurt china's feelings is ridiculous taiwan is an important trading partner for us and overall structure of foreign policy in the east if she thinks it is important, i think nancy should go. >> heidi, i made the argument that occasionally in life you have to pick your fights you have to decide what is important and not. there is a larger exstrategic fight we have with china over the next decade or couple of years with taiwan specifically why poke the bear for that reason >> at what point does it become ridiculous that one visit is

going to be -- >> it may be ridiculous. occas occasionally, you have to negotiate with somebody who is not rational again, which fight do you want to pick? >> first off -- >> i don't know if it is unnecessarily a fight. i will tell you this, it is important part of the strategic advantage in the east and i think that it is ridiculous for people to overemphasize the significance of this >> at odds with taiwan they will turn their backs on us you have to think how the world works and the ledverages lies >> i think we are sending an important message by her going. >> judd, please. >> heidi, i can't imagine the administration so incompetent. how could the speaker of the house go directly against the policies of the president of the

united states? remember what the president is dealing with here. isn't taiwan so much as ukraine. he is working very hard and i give him credit for this to make sure ukraine gets the military equipment they deserve and make sure russia doesn't find exports for commodities. the chinese agreed up to now to buy less russian materials and breaking sanctions what speaker pelosi is doing if i'm chinese and they are rational, the first pressure point is we're work with russians and give them what they need that undermines our ukrainian policy it is incredible to me the administration is incompetent. we saw it in afghanistan and now this situation >> they cannot tell us what to do that's blackmail, judd >> i'm not saying -- she made

the commitment to go she that's go now. she doesn't have any choice. >> i have one more for you you like our cohost. i wonder where they are on the visa thing would you hold visa, the credit card company, responsible for child porn if you knew there was child porn on a site and continue to do business with them i don't know if you saw it, judd, a republican judge in the state of california, indicated that is what he thinks should happen they should being accountable. >> that is a fascinating issue this is the tip of the iceberg if you hold voisa libel for that if they made a decision to support child porn, they are libel. if this is a simple use of credit card for action which they did not control and which was illegal, think of the number of levels where that imay be in.

you could go to a restaurant that is a front for the mafia in new york >> i cannot believe you are coddling china oh, my god we have 600 million basketball fans we can't say anything about china. i can't believe a strong republican like you is codling china. let's go have lunch. let's talk about oil and our right to go to taiwan. me and you let's go >> if she wants to go to taiwan, go to taiwan the decision -- >> listening to you right now or are you in the dog house

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coming up, ceo of imax will join us to talk about the return to theaters and winners and losers at the box office and very troubling popcorn shortage. later, crude prices fell 7% in the month of july we will talk to goldman sachs head of commodities jeff currie s ith aolling over or not we'll be right back.

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this weekend "top gun: maverick" crossed 100 million in sales at the imax. >> what a movie. >> it is great it's grossed $1.3 billion.

joining us is rich gelmond, i m max ceo. richard, it's good to have you on this morning. it was a little bit surprising to people that the revenue gain was significant. why still not able to get it into the black for that quarter? >> well, sir, ebitda was over $25 million. joe, in the quarter, it's been two years in a row, we've been positive cash flow and ebitdas you know eps has a lot of noise around it. we took a write-down in china. china and russia, those are non-cash write-downs so if you look at the business itself, it's smoking, doing really well. there was a lot of noise around eps. >> smoking, i love that. >> you need china, and china is still problematic with the lockdown. >> so, joe, you set me up with

that one with a softball, which is this is the best weekend we're just coming off of in china since -- the best summer weekend since september 2019 they had a movie called "moon man," which did over $125 million overall, and imax did $6.3 million, which is the biggest we've done there in a while. so hopefully this is a turning point. that was kind of the story after our earnings report was that the company is doing great i don't think they used the word "smoking." might have what's going to happen in china and this weekend, you know, was really surprising how well china did, so i'm hopeful it's starting to come out of it. >> so in the last year or so, that has been -- it's that important. your business in china can dictate overall what happens to imax at this point almost. >> it's about one third of our revenues in a typical year the great new this year was we

still beat on revenues and beat on ebitda even though china, you know, was really weak in the first half of the year, and all of the analysts' reports said everything's in place, we're waiting for china. as i said it, i'm not going to declare victory. it was the opening of a door and it was a really good weekend so i'm extremely hopeful like you said, "top gun," ""jurassic world,"" "dr. strange strange", we're only down 5% from 2019, which was our best year ever, and that was without china pretty much for the first half of the year we're doing really well. >> it matters, the slate, doesn't it, for imax i mean, would it make sense for me to go to the movie, to imax, to see "coda?" you need "top gun," don't you? that's what it's created for

you need these big grandiose movies to really appreciate it on an imax -- i mean "sense and sensibility" on imax, would i do that >> i don't know. that's not really our top choice of the year. we're in the blockbuster business. >> yeah. well, you need blockbusters. >> fortunately the whole business, that's the direction it's going so a lot of the smaller mid-level movies are moving over to the streaming services, but the big ones, it's kind of like "murderers' row. you go into the fourth quarter we've got "black panther," "avatar. next year we have marvel, three dc movies, chris know land, tom cruise is coming back again with "m "mission: impossible 7."

>> wow teen licorice packaging is a problem. if i can't get licorice and popcorn, i might as well stay home. >> the good news is we don't share popcorn. we have a license in the studio. we make 18 cents on the dollar i hate the popcorn shortage, but it doesn't really affect imax. >> you know about it, but are we dealing with it? usually high prices breed high pro-- we're going to get it under control, aren't we >> i think so it's right behind inflation in terms of national priorities. >> all right, rich thanks. >> thanks as well. >> all right take care. >> nice to see you, rich. coming up, your scorecard for earnings season so far we'll bring you the scorecard right after the break. eater, we'll talk about the week ahd in markets with wharton school's jeremy siegel

just you and your people. ♪ ♪

august, and we're going to tell you what investors are watching. major averages coming off their best month in at least a year and a half. and house speaker nancy pelosi arriving in asia. the big question, will she visit taiwan that's something china has warned against and warned against forcefully. and what does a billion dollars in esg get you in five years? we're going to get you the

answer with the ford foundation president. you don't want to miss it. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin. becky is off today u.s. futures have been around the flat line most of the morning an continue to be in that mode, down three on the dow right now. the s&p down seven or so nasdaq had a great week last week, up -- down 22 points or so this morning treasuries notably, the ten-year is below 2.7 now at 2.669. >> okay. a couple of stories that investors are going to be talking a lot about today.

def defense workers are voting to hold a vote to avoid a potential strike the faa has improved inspection protocol restrictions. we've got two economic reports on today's calendar. both reports are coming out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. the big report of the week coming out on friday when we get the july employment report no adp report this week as we were discussing last hour. there's this a single winning ticket was sold for the past friday's mega millions drawing the ticket was worth $1.3 billion, that's with a "b. it was sole at a speedway gas station in illinois. we may never know, however, because illinois is one of the

states where the winner can choose not to be identified, which is pretty much how i would do it. >> i would recommend that to anyone who does win. >> go into hiding? >> you've seen how they've gone and tracked the lives of a lot of people. >> it doesn't work out for people who win the lottery, sadly. >> it's too jarring. >> that still doesn't stop me from wanting to win. >> you remember how much trouble richard pryor had spending -- >> brewster's millions. >> money is the root of all evil. >> do you think? >> yes. >> look at us on "squawk box." that's what arthur brooks always says it's not about making money. it's getting up, contributing, being productive, earned success. >> if you had won the $1.3 billion, first of all are you taking the lump sum?

>> yeah. >> you're taking the lump sum. >> mm-hmm. >> what are you buying, first thing? >> a ticket out of here. >> you would pay come on. >> i would put it in the bank and still come in every day to be with you. >> i would i would do the same for you, that's how crazy we are. let's check in with dom chu. >> i'm just as crazy as you guys are. i've said it so many times before if i win the lottery, any of the lotteries, i would come back the following monday the first thing i would do is pay off the mortgage, pay loans, things like that, get out of debt that's the first step. after that, you can figure out if you want the fancy cars or houses or anything like that anyway, let's start off with the morning movers the retailer target, big box store, is up premarket on thin trading volumes, at least for right now. helped along by analysts at wells fargo who have helped that stock to an overrate rating.

the target price gets bumped to 195. it was 155 before. that implies 20% upside from yesterday's or friday's close. they're talking about things like bottoming out for the profit margin stoirksry, and a little too much pessimism for the future they had a big day on friday as well next up, you have shares on per k kinelmer it's going to keep the life science and diagnostic stuff perkinelmer ending on the high side and cryptocurrencies, we're

keeping that there let's moving averages that are just kind of above there that could act as maybe some resistance if it gets through there. it might be good for the bitcoin price. if it holds off, it might make a move toward the trading range. ether prices, $1,655, down nearly 4% and kind of the rest of the complex as well we'll keep our eyes on microstrategy. with that, joe, i will send things back over to you. i obviously did not win the l lottery. i think i would get a nice car that would be my first big purchase. >> like what >> i don't know. i always liked the porsche thing, maybe something like that. >> nice. a tie can or internal

combustion >> tie can because here in englewood we have a done of charging stations. i wouldn't have to pay for fuel again if i just drove the car to work. >> did you know that >> i would not be out there. >> you know i would be spending my money on a prius, so what can i tell you. >> i don't like the prius, all-electric prius thanks, dom. we've got to be more than half -- we're only halfway through the earnings season? it's august 1st. we've seen more misses and smaller earnings and revenue surprises from companies, slowing consumer demands struggling ad sales have been major themes strong dollar is weighing on the results. margins are getting squeezed and inflation is an issue. we've been paying suspepecial attention to the ceos. steve liesman joins us with the economic view from the c-suite

hey, steve. >> full of reasons for concern even in some cases it's a bit more upbeat. there are marquee warnings about consumers from walmart and best buy. the outlook is more mixed by company and by industry. >> we're seeing good activity across both the consumer and commercial portfolios, and i think that really bodes well for the environmental we're in right now. >> overall, i think the consumer is not doing bad my view at the moment, things are not so bad. >> the summer has been a blockbuster. we see steady recovery in business sfloovl we expect continued growth in the second half and are planning an increase on consumer demand for the holiday season. >> i've seen a lot of stress i see the same numbers that you see, and we know there are trade-offs it's mostly hitting those in

lower socioeconomic tiers. >> we're getting pinched by all this inflation. >> demand continues to be strong as you know, we've got a very strong labor market consumer balance sheets are generally strong things are very good no recession. >> there's a lot of debate about whether or not we have a recession coming, but in my view we look at a couple of our top markets. all of those showed very robust growth in q2, and i expect that to continue. >> meanwhile, the word from the c-suite says hiring is still difficult for them those who follow the business cycle say it's hard to call a recession when job growth is as it is now.

hirings and firings will play an important role in the outcome. joe, we just don't have the numbers right now to make the call. >> john mohler, if procter & gamble says it's not a recession, it's not a recession, don't you think? they sell everything in the world to the world. >> i would have to do some math, joe, on whether procter & gamble is the absolute average company, but i'd take your word for it. i don't think that's bad call. they're up and down the specter. you have your low income products and go up the line and buy that fancy tie they offer. is that not them >> and the little pods, delicious. no, i'm kidding. do not eat those it's a great cincinnati company. they take a lot of pride in procter & gamble don't you have a lot

how about imax, right? that interview you just did, i would have included that stuff as well. so you've got your travel, middle and high-end consumer companies. and by the way, joe, take a look at the earnings scorecard. it's up 7% year over year, which is not the kind of thing you see. i went back and looked year-over-year earnings tend to fall or at the beginning of recessions like i said, it's possible it started in july, but it's hard to make the call when you have these kinds of numbers you're right it was 56% through the earnings. >> i think this recession is transitory can we mix metaphors >> i think we all are. >> that's true think if it wasn't if you can find a place like that all right. steve liesman, thank you.

okay, coming up, house speaker nancy pelosi in singapore today, but questions swirling whether she's going to anger china by stopping in taiwan we're going to get a live update on her trip. but next we're going to talk hard returns from eng infesting. we'll talk with president darren walker for a wide-ranging discussion in just a moment. before we head to a break, let's take a look at markets take a look at where we are on this monday. down marginally. nasdaq down by 2 points. s&p 500 opening up at 7 points stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: "squawk box" is sponsored by bitwise, the world's leader in crypto index funds.

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welcome back to "squawk box. five years ago the ford foundation took a billion dollars from its endowment and started on a mission to make investments that address big social issues while at the same time earning a good return at the five-year mark, they earned a compound annual return rate of 28% since its inception. they say they've enjoyed a general social impact. joining us is darren walker.

you're a former corporate trader, banker, bond trader. i would say you're as much a professional bond investor as anyone else. let's talk about esg they're sort of in the crosshairs you were in the early edge of it here, putting this money to work to try to show that it could work, and yet we're now in this sort of remarkable political moment where there seems to be a backlash against it. >> it's really unfortunate, andrew, because this is good for the markets. this is good for our country this is good for investors so let's look at the ford foundation's portfolio in three primary asset classes. in affordable housing, we invested in fund managers who created or preserved over 23,000 units of housing from low to moderate income americans. we invested in 15 fintech companies that are serving the

global south, the developing world. we invested in health companies that served over 76 million consumers around the globe in diagnostics, therapeutics, in vaccine development. so it is possible, we believe, to do both an investment that provides both a financial return and a social return. i agree, andrew. it's a shame that this backlash is occurring it's unfortunate i feel it's ideological and not based on data and facts. this is market driven. this comes out of consumers, client clients. every firm on wall street is creating esg funds, not because they're being brow-beaten by activists but because customers, clients are saying, we want to buy these products, we want to invest in ways that do as little harm or no harm to the planet as

we can >> so what do you think when you see somebody like elon musk who's built tesla. by the way, on the back of the argument around the climate, of course, now calling esg a scam. >> i think it's unfortunate, and hopefully tesla will stand as a company that is both an investment in the planet and an investment that returns you a good financial yield i really don't -- to me, this is less about the personalities who are standing here and more importantly, let's look at the data, the numbers, the social impact, and then we'll question whether we can make the assessment. >> in terms of the assessments that have worked thus far, and, frankly, the investments that haven't, what do you look at in terms of the investments you've

used and what they have been >> we night to make investments that make a difference in the lives of people in this country. housing, for example, health care, education, work force, and the american worker. these are all investments that are rock solid, that get you both a strong roi, get you a social return. so let's look at the things that matter in this country that give people an opportunity to get on the mobility escalator and if we invest in those things, we will get both a financial return and a social return. >> darren, not to bring you back to politics, but one of the things that's happened really in the last year is you've seen political leaders, often on the right, who have effectively decided to go after companies that have made esg a mission you've seen this now from governor desantis in florida

there's a whole sort of movement in west virginia now i don't know if you saw the treasurer there. in the state of texas against some of the banks that were -- decided they weren't going to finance gun manufacturers. so some companies who have decided to make esg a priority are now facing a backlash, and what do you think the ceos who are experiencing that should be thinking >> i think those ceos need to think about all of their stakeholders and think about their employees, their shareholders, the communities they serve, and put them first in their consideration of policy there's no doubt that politics are at play here that's -- this is a democracy. we want a vibrant flourishing democracy, and so there should be debate. but for companies with -- by all

indications, employees, stakeholders, want to see companies take positions on esg. they want to work for, invest in companies in which they're proud to serve, and esg is a critical ingredient to that issue of both recruitment, retention, morale, culture, and impact, both financial and social. >> but, darren, it might very well be that that's the case, but as we've said, there is this unique backlash, and i don't know if it's just political or if there's something happening in the culture i think there were a lot of folks very positive about the esg movement there have been a lot of questions raised, especially on the climate side of, this whether the esg movement went too far, too quickly, in terms of money used for client-only energy projects that effectivelied my have drained fossil fuel companies or investment in that space, now with the war between russia and

ukraine, what that's done to oil prices i do think there are impacts, and how we think about that is very important. >> i agree, and there's no doubt, we're going to have to in the climate investment area have a period of transition a fallacy to agree that fossil investments are going to exist or should not exist. it's imperative that we have a robust and diverse energy sector, and so it may be that some have advocated too vociferously, but at the end of the day, they've raised the issue and urged investing and clean energy. >> what do you think of the argument that policy makers and lawmakers should make laws and that businesses should make profits? and the reason i ask this question, we were actually

discussing earlier this morning this news about the this case in california against visa, visa helping in this case by at least the argument of a republican judge who was helping a parent company of corn hub monetize child pornography, and whether they should be held responsible for that or whether the company should be held responsible for that there is an argument, and i saw it this morning. people say, well, this is a slippery slope if you hold visa accountable for that, would you hold visa accountable for somebody who, you know, drives drunk from the bar and the bartender serves them i don't agree with that argument at all, but i raise it to you because people say, where does this go, and shouldn't it be the lawmakers and the police that are policing these things, not the companies? >> well, there's no doubt that we need stronger policies to

monitor and ensure that those who have broken the law are treated as such, prosecuted. there's no, in my view, andrew, doubt that the company, the corporation in our society is not just to make profits it has to be to be a citizen of this world and to contribute accordingly toward bettering this society and, of course, you contribute by being a good company, and any good company today takes esg seriously, has a robust and muscular program for esg that's not just green washing, but is deep and sincere and has a genuine commitment to putting in a business policy. when you do, you'll do better as a business. >> darren walker, it's great to see you. hope to get to see you in

person have a great sum fehr i don't see you before then. >> thank you ro looking forward to it. the white house is facing a deadline today with regard to chinese tariffs. we'll talk with the white house council of economic advisers member heather boushe and nancy pelosi's possible stop in taiwan plus the ceo of aluminum talks about the monkeypox spread stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc like nike, jordan, the north face, and more. and, with one-hour curbside pickup, it's never been easier to sport your style.

under the redacted version it could happen a lot of folks are wanting to see what he's arguing. the chancellor court ordered a five-day trial to begin. you can mark your calendar for this one, because, boy, this could be like a hot ticket october 17th when we come back, a lot more on

"squawk. we'll talk about nancy pelosi and whether she should visit taiwan this week or not. we're watching it very closely we'll bring you the latest plus china's latest wobbly economic numbers "squawk" returns after this.

house speaker nancy pelosi kicking off a closely watched trip to asia the big question, will she make a top in taiwan? this is something china has warned against forcibly. joining us is eunice yoon. hi, eunice. >> reporter: it's unclear whether or not she's going to be making a stop in taiwan, however, there are more and more reports that seem to suggest she will a taiwan official is quoted by media saying that she will overnight in taiwan. taiwan news outlets are saying she could be there as early as tuesday. and chinese media are quoted chinese intelligence saying she'll arrive on a u.s. military plane on thursday. again, there is no confirmation, though, of her trip. now, the chinese government

which claims taiwan as its own and sees her visit there as an affront to national sovereignty has been ratcheting off its threats. today the foreign military said they won't sit idly by if she visits joe? >> what do we think of that, eu eunice i'm seeing very bellicose comments they see that as almost a mill day move by the united states if a speaker/civilian were to land in what they call sovereign territory. i think that's a stretch do you think they would actually follow through on that honestly? >> reporter: well, there are a lot of people who are concerned that what could happen is china, because it does feel that the u.s. is provoking beijing, that maybe beijing would follow through with some type of

military strike or accompany her plane, potentially leading the u.s. and china into a conflict over a politician. so that's one of the reasons why. there are folks out there who say don't go there it's really not warkworth it for pelosi to do that. on the other hand, there are several people on the other side who say we really as america cannot be seen as being bullied by china, that xi -- she is not the only speaker who's been to ta taiwan newt gingrich was there. it's difficult to say especially with the political climate right now. >> okay, eunice. thanks we'll know soon enough appreciate it. coming up, much more on the markets as we get set for the first opening bell the next hour we're going to speak with the wharton school's professor jeremy siegel. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on

cnbc

investors are gearing up for a big opec meeting on wednesday. this could be the first gathering in about two years where the oil cartel doesn't

simply carry on with its previous output plan in other words, we might get some oil fireworks joining us now, jeff currie, head of goldman sachs commodities research what do you expect, jeff >> in terms of looking iing at e overall fundamental picture, we would expect they would roll over the key point here is that what we see on -- in terms of the fundamentals of the demand, there is a slowdown occurring, but it's not a contraction and i think that's what's being confused in the narratives, is there's a view there's a big contraction recession going on that's broad-based across commodities given the pullback in prices, but the reality is the underlying picture is slower demand growth after a very torrid pace this year and not an outright contraction so it's not like the fundamental picture is distorted extremely one way or the other, but the

financial markets are seeing something very different this is one thing i said in the last week and the previous week. physical markets are telling a very different story than the financial markets. >> we would sometimes view the interest rate sector as a commodity. what the heck is happening there with the ten-year, jeff, and does that inform your decisions and analysis about everything else >> absolutely. it's like the commodity in the sense that the price has an economic purpose in the slowing demand growth or creating supply growth if we look at whether it's the interest rates, breaking prices or commodity prices, they basically priced in an environment in which energy crisis over food advices over energy the five-year sitting at 2.5%, breaking even.

the commodity markets are doing identically what the bond markets are doing, and that can really be seen by looking at the gap between the cash price for oil and where the corporates are trading. september brent went off the board at $110 a barrel today -- or friday. the next one out is 102.50 this morning. you go first out and it's at 100. you keep going out, it's $90 a barrel that is not the market thinking the price is going to go down over the next 12 months. what that means is the consumers are willing to pay a huge premium for physical delivery relative to what investors are willing to pay on the curve. so it's an opposite meaning. >> it has been posited that we've seen the highs for inflation and this you're seeing across the board things rolling over you point out it's not a contraction but certainly a slowing of demand. in two or three months when we look back and think, wow, things are overheated and we're not

seeing that now in the complex, the entire, you know, soft door/hard door commodity >> within the commodity complex, both food and fuel, the next six months is substantial. our target is $110 on brent. that's because physically the market is in debt. you look at the financial conditions they've eased somewhat that's the same thing with the oil price, creating more of a demand you can create more of a demand on top of a deficit, and we haven't factored in the srp is going to go away in october. we would argue in energy, the upside potential to reach new highs in the second half of this year is still very, very high. >> and so regardless of what happens and the supply dynamics

of everything else, you figure it does trickle through. there's no doubt that the most important commodity we follow is oil, no doubt. >> mm-hmm. and i think the point is that the long-term supply picture still hasn't been fixed. i'd like to point out demand and that are temporary >> will we see that given the backdrop, the esg movement, just the instability of governments you never know who's going to be running the show, so if you make a five-year or ten-year commitment to expanding something, you could be shut down three years later, depending on who's sitting in the chair. >> i mean we call that the revenge of the end economy, you know we're not putting money to work in the old economy the situation has gotten worse, not better with the higher prices you know, you look at exxon and

its release on friday. its free cash flow yield once there with microsoft, but m microsoft is at $1.2 billion exxon is at $5 billion it's trading at around an eight, which is that investors d not see the persistency in the problem. the same thing with the commodity market it's not paying for where the physical prices are. and i think what needs to change before you get capital to come in there is some belief of the persistency of this story. >> do you think we're in a recession, jeff? do you use the two-quarter definition >> from a commodity demand perspective? no if you look at oil and metals together, the recession was back in april and may when china went through the severe lockdowns

demand has rebounded substantially following those lockdowns back in april and may, and is in much better positioning. when you look at, you know, the overall demand picture, it's still growing. and i think the other point here is even if we do see a recession, it's likely to be broad-based and rather shallow that's very different from what we saw in 2020, which led to no travel and a collapse in demand. boeing had a financial crisis where they shut everything down and demand collapsed the previous one to that was 9/11 where everyone quit flying. we have it in our heads when a recession should happen, it's a significant demand but the reality is if you go back to the over post-war recessions -- >> is it good or bad, jeff >> it's awesome for the oil

price. >> it's almost -- you know, it's almost good news/bad news. if it's really shallow, the fed is not going to be able to accomplish what it wants to accomplish it's going to need a more serious slowdown to bring inflation under control. so i don't know whether this is good or bad. >> you know, i think one of the key points here is you need to continue to attract investment it's a fine line between killing off demand and keeping the capex cycle going. let's also not forget, the capex cycle really hasn't started yet. i made this point previous times. when volcker did it, he did it after a decade of an enormous c capex boom we don't have that same underlying capex cycle yet that's still to come. >> all we're doing is demand that's not going to work.

>> exactly well put. >> all right we'll check back with you. i like it every two weeks. is that about what we're averaging? >> that's about right. thanks for having me. >> okay. coming up, a story you don't want to miss we're going to speak with the lead attorney for a plaf in a groundbreaking case against visa and a pornography giant. it's got huge implications for e-commerce and the adult entertainment industry you don't want to mussiss that you're watching "squawk box" on -- it's not as rainy as it was before rhterig he in new york city in times square it's the first day in august we're back after this. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire walter hagen. he was equal part style and skill.

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two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. welcome back to "squawk box. the futures right now have turned positive on the dow and the nasdaq as well the nasdaq had been down actually more than the other averages but just fractionally most of the morning. so july came in like a -- it's the wrong expression, but july was a good month after a terrible first half of the year. obviously if you go down 30%,

35%, and you go back 15%, you're nowhere near even, but certainly probably was a good time to maybe get in the market sometime in mid-june, so far, but, you know, we had a lot of people say we're going to retest and maybe set some new lows. did you see tom? >> yep. >> air market is over, it's going to new highs he's like the only guy not everyone can be right. you've got 20 people -- 100 people saying we're going to new lows and one person saying, it's over, we're going with new highs. i'm going with the one guy. minneapolis's kashkari is calling inflation very concerning and the central bank is committed to 2% for inflation for the goal, although, he says, we have a long way to go. >> we're going to do everything

we can to try to avoid a recession, but we're trying to bring inflation down we're a long way away from achieving an economy that was back at 2% inflation, and that's what we need to get to. >> you know, neel has been -- >> it's hard. >> he's been on both sides of things now they're talking tough. let's talk about another topic in news this morning, a u.s. district judge denying a motion from visa to be dropped from a lawsuit against mindgeek. it concerns whether or not visa should be liable for the distribution of child pornography. it comes from journalists at "the new yorker" and new york times. they say, quote, srvsvisa is be

kept in this case because it's alleged to have continued to recognize as a merchant an immense, well known, and highly visible business that it knew used its websites to host and monetize child important and, quote, this pretrial ruling is disappointing and mission characterizes visa's role and its policies and practices visa will not tolerate the use of our network for illegal activity images of her were distributed on porn hub when she was just 13 years old. >> thank you and good morning. it's good to spend time on a very important case. >> it is an important case i want to ask whether visa, mastercard, ore financial services companies should be held liable for things that merchants that use their services do and where you think

the line should be >> right so this is not a hard case because -- and i know the writing you've done with respect to gun retailers this is simple in the gun context t equivalent would be that they knew there was an online retailer who was selling -- without background checks were selling machine guns back, zoo kas, and flame flowers. this one is not a close call we did an investigation for an entire year. we put together a 170-page complaint that details all of our findings that complaint alleged in detail their business model it wasn't just that child p pornography and things were on this site. they not only knew it was on the site it was part of the business model. it was part of the business mod toll drive traffic to the site, and it wasn't just there they then amplified it, wrote

algorithms and more so people could watch more of it, and what was passed on in the decision is visa knew -- i'll use the court's words -- knew that mindgeek with teeming with porn hub, intendeding to help them monetize it and knowingly offered tools to complete the crime. they knew. so the judge found that they -- we allege they were part of a criminal conspiracy, which is entirely different, and our case is not about whether or not credit card companies should be policing particular people's views of porn generally or guns generally. this was illegal conduct that they knew about and decided to finance by allowing it to be run up. >> michael, what do you think

the liability should be? there have been discussions about this over the weekend. given the laws about child poernpo pornography, for people who are on the board of visa >> look. it's criminal liability. we allege -- we can't prosecute people, but the way the statute works is for us to proceed, we have to allege a violation of the child sex trafficking act. the judge found we did, and the judge found we alleged that visa was a co-conspirator in that criminal conduct what should the liability of the ceo and the board be well, let me give you these facts. this is not a situation where some lower level executives made a bad decision about this. that was the case sometime a long time ago. but in the end, they were doing business with mindgeek for over

a decay. they had done the due diligence on this. it was known to visa it was the subject of conversations with mindgeek, then over the course of several years because this was so ubiquitous, there were one high-profile case after another including a 15-year-old who was kidnapped in florida and she was a -- had been a proof model, and 58 videos of her were up there >> michael, if -- go ahead. >> but then for a year, there was -- there was a campaign on twitter that outed all this. advocates and victims went to them we filed a lawsuit with all the evidence and then they still did business at that point it is absolutely at the board and ceo level and yesterday, their statement -- their statement that they

disagree with these -- these allegations are true we didn't make them up we investigated this >> michael -- >> yep. >> -- we're up against a hard break in just a moment, so i have to ask you. r. kelly, do you-- al kelly, do believe he should be legally responsible? >> when they know that their merchants are engaged in crime and he knew -- they knew this was at the ceo and board level for two years, and they continued to do that business, so yes. >> michael, we appreciate you joining us it is a longer conversation. i'm sure we'll be talking to you and others about this big topic. actually, seismic news in terms of what it can do to the industry more broadly. michael, we appreciate you being here. >> this is a very specific case.

>> a very specific case. >> it's unique and specific. to try to do -- to try to police and monitor every single activity that visa -- >> there are other cases like this, just so we're clear. >> it's certainly maybe 1% or 2% -- >> it's a small number, but there are a number of companies and merchants visa and mastercard do business with who knowingly know they're involved in criminal behavior and that's the point. coming up, white house council of economic advisers member heather boushey is going to join us "squawk box" is coming right back

good morning get ready for another morning. we have everything you need to know about the earnings calendar and friday's job's numbers straight ahead speaker pelosi plans to visit taiwan in spite of china's warnings. plus a read on the economy from the white house we'll talk with heather boushey from the council of economic advisers about the hot inflation data, weak gdp, and a borrower talks about a recession. we don't want to say recession

we might get fired for it. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in time square joe kernen with me, andrew ross sorkin becky is off. we're set to open higher on the dow, marginally higher nasdaq had been off by 5 points. it had been worse than that. and the s&p off by about 5 points treasury yields, this one is interests. alan greenspan, what does he look like in the morning >> what does he look at in the morning? 2.56 ten-year note that was his most important thing in the morning

>> now it's bitcoin. let's get to the trading dade ahead. cnbc's commentator, mike sa santoli. if you woke up and came into mon on june 30th and said i 50e78 going into the stockmarket and said, yeah, this is easy, this is good, mike, july was good. >> yep last week was good july was good. we obviously were positioned probably for further bad news. we managed to absorb the continued downgrading of estimates because, look, it's still going to to be up a little bit. probably at a record level haven't seen that real erosion just yet financial conditions loosened up a bit. take a look at the s&p 500 index fund this is year to date one thing that's been accomplished here is kind of a first step, which is you broke that kind of down trend that was in place from this early april high that's one step.

i think you'd still have to say it leashes you at the top of the range since we've been in since may. still something to prove it's at the 100-day average. why have we gotten here? in large part it ice because of the huge growth stocks that do power the s&p 500 have been outperformers. this is on a quarter-to-date basis. this is june you see the cap is up 13.5% over that span, equal weighted s&p 500. so that's just approximately the typical stock. up 8%. that's a pretty wide margin. that's why they managed to have such a good month. u.s. dollar index has gotten out of the way and allowed risk assets to do a little bit better take a look here this is on a one-year. you've seen these little highs that happen or at least it flattened out. when they stopped making new highs, in march, it allowed the equity markets to rally. same thing in may and here toward the end of june i'm not a big proponent of

thinking that the dollar and currency moves themselves are the big swing factor, but we're in an environmental where the dollar is a proxy for hawkish fans it's not about growth expectations, and that's why it's been co-ins accident at times when markets have loosened up a little bit and allowed markets to reinflate slightly, joe. >> or back to, really, scrutinizing this friday's number earnings too yeah, jobs are one of the most when known lagging indicators. jobs will tell you at this time whether we're staring into a recession. they may catch up three, four, five months later. i've asked you this question before about actnecdotal high-th moves and others that seem to be telegraphing some weakness in the job market, but we haven't seen it in any first friday of the month numbers yet.

>> we haven't. look, weekly unemployment claims have trended higher from extremely low levels they're up in a magnitude that seems to be consistent with some kind of pre-recession move that's not to say jobs are as strong as they have been i also believe there are unique factors in the current cycle we can talk about it being a recession, but what are we actually saying if we're just talkinging declaring recession when consumer sentiment is already at recessionary levels, and yet you have the gdp growing pretty fast. they have a productivity problem, overhiring problem, they overinvested in the pandemic, and they're taking the opportunity to try to snug things up a bit. >> thanks, mike. happy monday thank you. as we await to hear whether speaker pelosi will visit taiwan, the white house has a deadline to discuss the tariffs on chinese goods that trump

placed kayla tausche has more good morning. >> reporter: good morning. they'll lay out $350 billion in chinese goods that puts the white house in an awkward position of having to defend some of these tariffs even as it considers removing them. in in 2020 scores of companies sued the trump administration arguing the tariffs were overly brown and enacted too hastily. if they find they're right, the u.s. could be forced to reimboerse the importers who so far have paid nearly $250 billion in tariffs some political aides and ustr have argued to keep them for negotiating leverage or to be hawkish on china

that could increase other penalties, a senior u.s. official telling me everything is still on the table, quote, there's no question that as we reorient our policy with china, we're going to need to ratchet up our trade tools in sectors and in areas where you see the clearest threat. the department of justice has said this lawsuit could take a while to reach a conclusion. andrew >> kayla, thank you for that report appreciate it very, very much. i want to bring in heather boushey right now, the white house council member of economic advisers i want to talk about that, heather, but i do want to talk about this, given that it's the issue of the morning, which is what you think or death think that nancy pelosi should be doing on this trip in the next 24 hours >> wealth, i'm here to talk about the economy this morning i think that nancy pelosi's going -- those are separate issues i think what we are really most interested in is what is

actually happening on capitol hill in terms of this legislation, the inflation reduction act that is working its way through congress, that is so exciting for the american people and american businesses it's going to see investments in our economy, and it's going to help bring inflation down over time, and it's going to create good jobs, and all the while lowering the deficit those are the things the economic team is really thinking about most this morning. >> heather, i don't know that -- i'm sure you've seen it. university of pennsylvania, wharton school doing a measure of the inflation reduction act it's not much of a reduction act at all in fact, it may increase inflation marginally. >> you know, economists have various models you know, one of the things we see, they do not say it's going to increase inflation. there's also new data coming out from moodys.com and mark zandi where he's already indicated his model actually does show it will lean into inflation reduction. and here's the thing core parts of this legislation

are going to give significant relief to families by continuing extend the subsidies to health care through the affordable care act. that will certainly help families that are struggling with costs giving the government the ability to negotiate prescription drugs, and, of course, all of the energy rebates to families that are looking to make a transition to clean energy this is going to lower energy costs overtime, make them less volatile it's difficult to imagine it does not significantly support economic secure and help families cope with the high cost of living. >> the joint committee on taxation looked at the bill. the average tax rates were increased for nearly every income category in 2023 under the bill. >> so that estimate -- there are two challenges with that number. first, that estimate doesn't take into account any of the direction tax credits or rebates that families receive.

so they excluded them. that's in the fine print at the bottom so the energy tax credits, the affordable care act reimbursement supporting families to get health care, all of that is not counted in that estimate further, it doesn't take into account the lower cost over time of prescription drugs or energy prices some of those are some important things the other thing is that that is based on a model that assumes that any time a company invests, that will lead to higher wages so if taxes lead to less investment, that will mean wages will come down that is not what we saw with the 2017 taxes and job cuts act. when you lower tax, it does not leave an investment or wage gains families want to see this is going to in velvet in mek. this combined with other legislation the president has worked for including chips and science act and bipartisan infrastructure law, these are all going to increase pro

productivity all across the united states and create better jobs. >> most things look at that. he's got basically half of the tax that's really going to hit manufacturers. that's the one area where, you know, high-paying jobs, we want to make things in the united states 50% of the taxes will hit u.s. manufacturers, again, according to the congress joint tax committee. it just doesn't seem like the time to be doing that when we -- are we in a recession? are we not in a recession? this seems like a -- you know, i know president biden needs a win, you know, and manchin has been -- you know, we didn't get to do the $5 trillion that bernie wanted. i don't know have you heard anything from kyrsten sinema, about what she's thinking on this, heather? do you know? >> here's the thing. i'm focused on how are we going to grow america and the middle class? how are we going to create jobs?

and how are we going to do it with the kinds of industries that will support innovation and investment that's what we're seeing with the inflation and reductions act. already we've seen hundreds of billions of dollars in semi-conductors and new electric vehicles and batteries those pieces of legislation are designed to foster that kind of innovation investment that's going to create good jobs, and that's going to benefit american workers. not all this money is going out immediately. again, there's lots of pieces that are going to help families cope with high costs and let's remember that it will be deficit-reducing. when you look at the may crow eco macro economy, people say time and time again, don't add fuel to the fire. that's what the president has done along with a record-breaking $1.7 trillion

decline in deficits year over year. >> heather boushey, we appreciate you joining us this morning. always good to get your perspective on where we are and where we're headed thanks. >> thank you. coming up, the ceo of lumina on technology and fighting monkeypox and the outbreak first as we head to -- this is not an outbreak. it a rul'segar break crude prices are down, 95. "squawk box" will be right back. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.

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and advanced security at home and on the go to block millions of threats. only from us... xfinity. the world health organization has declared monkeypox a global emergency now companies like lumina have turned their sites into finding therapeutics and vaccines to fight the outbreak joining us now, francis d'souza is the ceo of illumina what was it? mechanical engineering what number was that at kendall square and cambridge what were your two >> core 6, electrical engineering and computer science. >> electrical engineering and computer science suddenly that's big in biotech molecular biology, you don't

even need that i need what you have to run one of these company, especially a sequencing company that must come in handy. if we sequence monkeypox, what does that do for us? >> we understand the genome on the virus. so that tells us how the virus is emerging, how it's moving around the world, how it's mutating that information is essential for us to develop things like the dyiagnostic actuals, to develop vaccines like for covid, and develop virals what we can do is get a very early advance warning of an outbreak that's happening as it's moving so we can use that to make policy decisions, for example, and then we can make sure that as it mutates, that the tools we're using to fight the outbreak t diagnostic actuals, the therapeutics, the vaccines, that the virus hasn't escaped them it's important to continue to

monitor them it's not important just from a public health perspective to look for the next crohn's or monkeypox, but it's also important from a national defense perspective. it helps us identify, for example, any bioterrorist attacks that may be playing out. >> so would you say there's three areas you would like in diagnostics? you would like to have rapid tests for that we'd like to have a vaccine, i guess. and we'd like to have a therapeutic. sequencing it -- once you sequence it, it still seems like the next step to design in drugs is not automatic you don't know once you have the raw sequence, what codes for genes, what's important, what's not, there's more work to be done, right? >> it's the first step in the process. it allows you to look globally if there's an outbreak happening. if it's an outbreak off something we know or an outbreak that's happening, you take that

genomic data and we give that to the companies that then create the vaccines and that therapeutics and the diagnostic tools, and we continue to feed that data to those companies to make sure the tools they have continue to work we also feed that data into the publy health systems so we can understand what kind of policy decisions we made. should we enact a travel ban, for example, so we can continue? if in our community you see only outbreaks coming from the outside and you know that by looking at the genome of the virus in your community, well, then, a travel ban could be helpful because you could contain that from coming into your community but if you're already starting to see local transmission and you can see that by looking at the sequences of the virus, at that point a travel ban won't be helpful and you need to move on to other measures. it helps you identify what kind of policy decisions you need to be making. >> hey, francis, some sort of just news you can use selfishly

for all the viewers out there. who should be getting vaccine? >> at this point people at high-risk immunity over time we need to be much broader in terms of the rollout of the vaccines. but we should be targeting communities that are at higher risk those are the people, i think, who should be prioritized for the vaccine. monkeypox is a disease that can affect all of us we need to know that but in terms of the rollout, we need to identify who the higher risk communities are, just like we did with covid, and start with the rollout in those communities. >> what do you -- let's just talk quickly some housekeeping what's going to happen with the grail acquisition, francis, given some of the recent news from that. where does it stand with the ftc? what's the problem it's not a revenue problem i think you're going to control the entire marketplace if you reacquire what you already have? what do you think caused all of the consternation, especially in

the eu >> some are saying it's a breakthrough test. it's a blood test that can identified 50 types of cancer, stage 1 to stage 4 and we know cancer kills 600,000 people a year. we also know if you catch a cancer early, your chances o survival for even some of the most deadly cancers are much higher than if you catch the cancer at a late stage this grail blood test is a true step forward in the fight against cancer what's happened now is the grail test has been launched in the u.s. and the uk. in the uk, the nhs just announced it's completed enrollment for its clinical trial, one of the largest ever done in cancer the gram is makinging are good progress in terms of rolling out the test we invented it, spun it out to raise the money for the trials,

and now we've acquired it back and we're working through the regulatory process both in the ftc and the european union to get approval our goal is to scale the rollout of grail very quickly, to make sure that it is more accessible to more people more affordably than it would ever be if it was a separate company we're trying to get approval both here and in europe to get the deal consummate and roll the test out more globally. >> okay. yeah, that would be good a quick test for every kind of cancer that's on the horizon some day, i think, hopefully that would be amazing. thanks, francis. >> thank you. coming up after the break, shares of boeing getting a nice pop this morning following a new report about the dreamliner. phil lebeau is going to join us with that next. later, which biggest catalysts and earnings are ahead? we'll check in with wharton

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welcome back to "squawk box. the futures have turned negative the nasdaq down 30 and the s&p down phil lebeau joins us with the latest news on the aerospace giant boeing hey, phil. >> hey, joe. the 787 dreamliner is once again closer to being delivered to customers. remember, since may of last year, boeing has not delivered any 787 dreamliners while the faa was scrutinizing the inspection protocols that boeing goes through when it is manufacturing one of these planes and right before it's delivered. in the process of going back and forth with the faaover the last

y the year and a half, they have literally gone over every single area where you have two pieces coming toechlt you're talking 1/1,000 of a separation. is it within what the parameters should be? they have done this front to become of the airplane and they now have a protocol in place that the faa is saying, yeah, that works for us. so what happens now? the faa still has to sign off on each individual dream line e before it's delivered, but now that it's comfortable with the protocols, it will, as boeing says, we're ready to deliver this particular dreamliner, they'll say, okay, let's check this one, likely do some kind of an awe it where they check a number of areas, say, good to go, and those deliveries resume. the deliveries are going to ramming p up gradually, but bowing will increasing production they've got about 120 pre-built

or built already but not yet delivered 787s, so they will start delivering those, the first one likely to go to american airlines sometime in the next few weeks this is going to be huge in terms of cash flow for boeing. remember, they have not had dreamliner deliverers since may of last year it's been a real drag on the company, and that's the reason the company is getting a pop on stock right now. >> we started hearing rumblings about dave calhoun look at the right side of the chart. there have been a couple of data points that certainly would work in his favor that we've seen in the last couple of months. can he -- number one, how old is he how long would he like to stay and do you think this gets him back in good stead with shareholders >> first of all, it does get hick back in better stead with the shareholders that's definitely what you want

to see that's certainly good news from the shareholders perspective remember, dave calhoun's contract was just extended i want to say a year and a half, two years ago. he plans to stay here for a while. he came in after dennis muilenburg when you talk with him, he makes it very clear he plans to stay for a while. look, they've got some momentum here you have the dreamliners returning, the 787 max production stabilized at 31 a month. if they can keep it there -- the supply chain is the issue, guys. not boeing the supply chain is the bigger issue. if they can stabilize it and grow over the next couple of years, bowing is going to have some wind at its back. dave calhoun knows that they've got a lot of things they need to conquer. he's stabilized the situation. now the question is, okay, what happens over the next couple of years? >> yeah, he was there for a lot

of it, you can see there, when did he -- when did mull inburg leave? >> around christmastime. >> he rode that baby down. now it may have bottomed and is looking better, looking much better. >> sure. coming up -- >> thanks, phil. >> -- inside metaverse, kicking off the virtual world. >> are you suggesting some of that for nancy, a virtual tour might be better? >> we have an astute twitter follower. >> did he just evaporate or does he no longer exist wee into'rgog talk about the big players in the emerging technology next. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk. it's been nine months since facebook has renamed itself meta what does it mean for all the tech giants betting big on the metaverse? that's the question of the morning. for the next two weeks, they're going inside the metaverse julia boorstin joins us. julia. >> they've made it less of a

near-material priority me tarks apple, alphabet, and microsoft continue to make investments in hardware and software to bring the companies into the immersive 3-d world it's created a meta version of its world. it's to lauren later this year. plus it opened a retail store. but meta has suffered some setbacks, reportedly delaying the release of ar glasses, and they're looking to block the acquisition of a vr startup. but it's not just meta in the next year we expect a battle brewing to sell new hardware in addition to meta's coming quest pro along with its headset, apple is expected to release its product next spring. ice working with content creators for the new format.

plus google is working on its own ar headset reportedly for 2024 along with a new version of google glass and microsoft is working to expand its product it says it's working on a consumer version as well venture investors see a growing opportunity in the metaverse, pouring 1pre$1.9 billion into t space. that's more than invested all of last year. one question we're watching more near term is how much a recession could dampen interest in some of these high-end consumer devices andrew >> hey, there. the other thing i think everyone is trying to figure out is this a winner-take-all market, and how important is the hardware piece of it versus the software piece of it? >> i think the person exception right now is that it's not a winner-take-all market, even if you look at the fact there are

these enterprise devices, and threaten are going to be more high-end devices for people who are serious gamers and other devices that cost a couple 00 credit dollars for people who are more casual users of this format there could be a variety in the types of headsets. they're each going to be trying to play in this area in some space. maybe two of them end up being leaders, but i do think there will be a variety of price points and approaches to this. >> julia, you know i live on all of these gadget speculation gossip websites. so what do you think is going to happen with apple this fall? >> i was just discussing this and debating this with some of my west coast colleagues there's a thought maybe we can get a peek of it maybe it's one more thing we hear about at an apple event this fall and that would set it up for the launch. this spring, but we may not hear about it until this spring, there's been

so much speculation about it i think we may get a peek of it ormore information we really don't know. >> what tease price point? some of these sites think it's going to be thousands of thousands. some think it's going to be super expensive and some think it may be at a price point that's more mainstream. >> look, i don't have any inside information on the price point of what those will go for. i do think if you could price these in a low $100 range, then it becomes a mainstream consumer product. the one that meta is working on is going to be high end like the came brea, now quest pro that's going to be more expensive. ultimately for this to really become a mainstream technology, these devices are going to have to cost a couple of hundred dollarser, long term. >> julia boorstin. thanks so much appreciate it.

let's talk markets and riding a continual high. jeremih seeing sl joining us from wharton's school of business roy do you think, jeremy july was a snap back, but do you think we're headed to new lows, or have we already made a real bottom. >> good morning, joe about an hour ago you mentioned the employment report we're going to be getting on friday, and one of the things that has really puzzled me, over the last six months, first half of the year, we had 2.7 million jobs. how did we get a drop in gdp i don't know why people aren't asking that question what are people doing? you get gdp by people working.

now, the first quarter, we had the worst productivity in 75 years, but it bounced back 75 years. now they're telling us with recent data, the second quarter, we're going to get a couple of weeks, is almost as bad as the first quarter. this is unprecedented. we have never seen the collapse of productivity like that in history what does the biden administration say about it and the fed? the good news is if we get a bounce back to a more normal level, that really slows down inflation because obviously less productivity means more inflation, high productivity, less inflation i think the fed should be near the end of its tightening cycle. i think we're already in an

above neutral mode i know a lot of people think not. larry summers has argued we're not yet. i think the neutral rate is somewhere between 1, 1 president -- 1.5 we're ore 2. i think they have to look at the commodities and housing prices and said, yeah, we miessed up but forward inflation has really been stopped. >> so you don't think that the risk is that there's some kind of stop and start that got us in trouble in the '70s. you think the fed should set a rate that's not data-dependent or if they look like they're having success, they've got to back off >> they can't look at the cpi.

we already talked about that's backward-looking and it understates the housing prices the past cpi over the year went up 10%, 12%. if they put in housing prices properly but all the world from, you know, housing experts and the data says, hey, that housing inflation has come to an end now f they look at the forward-looking data -- and that's what the market wants i think it went up i think we see a pivot there, you know, i think we see powell saying it's softening. we see the softening we don't want them to say, we'll have to wait that would be a disaster i think the market is saying, hey, take a look at what's going forward. there's a lot of inflation coming through the official statistics but forward looking inflation, i think, is yielding on a real basis. i think the fed should slow down

the rate of hiking, and if we get a snapback in productivity, that will put further dollar pressure i'm not going to guarantee we saw the bottom a couple of months ago and they're impossible to sell earnings have really held off over, you know, even half the s&p companies have reported. not as big a beat as last year that was an all-time record. in guidance, yeah, a little bit lower, but i look at the estimate for just this year. i'm looking at 2023. it's not any different from january really even with all that's happened. and on negative gdp over the last six quarters, how do we understand when that is happening, higher 2.7 million workers. you know, you have to try and figure some of this data out before you make rash moves on a

monetary front >> jeremy, what should we hope for on friday? is it nice to see the job market hold up, or does that just make the fed more strident? >> you know, the expectation's for about a quarter million. slower than the first half i'd like to see the growth again, i'm wondering if we added 400,000 a mon on -- month on average and we go down in first half i have never seen that i looked back at the past data since world war ii nothing like that has ever happened i think we have to say, just a minute, what has happened here how can we have a robust increase in employment and a decline in real gdp? and what does that mean for the future and i think if powell and others start talking about that, you

know, we'll get a clearer look of what's going on in the economy and what that means for monetary policy. but that -- that's the puzzle to me right now is what's going on there? >> maybe it's lagging. that's what some people think, that jobs always lag, and there's some slowdown. >> people are twiddling their thumbs they're not working. they say they're working eight hours at home. maybe they're working four hours at home. maybe that's what the government thinks there's a lot of puzzles out there. >> there are. >> i would not just look past the inflation data to say, oh, my goodness, we have to keep on hiking >> okay, all right there you got that side of it. a lot of people think they need to stick to it all right, thanks, jeremy. coming up, jim cramer's first take on the trading day.

we'll see if he agrees i think he does, but may not much more on today's movers. here's a look at the winners and losers on the s&p 500. back after this. controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

let's get down to the new york city. jim cramer joins us now. i hate obsession about jobs numbers, but i can't help myself, jim. is it possible it's lagging and

showing some slowdown or is it possible it's rip-roaring? what which do we want? which do the markets want? >> i think the markets want oil down and they want food down they may get their way with food we know that from ukraine. but it's going to trickle down oil, just fungible i was sitting in on the opec meeting. that's what people want. i think the more important thing is did tech bottom last week i think you saw a lot of tech stocks that seem to be derisk so to speak you can see some taking a little bit of a beating today, but that's silly we have a hangover from july july was a great month all we read was july was an appar appa apparition i don't think the whole month can be an apparition i think the numbers will be strong. >> those who think we hit the new lows definitely talked us into not believing in a pretty good rally.

>> this is over july. >> most people are still saying going just as i told you that it would go, and only to roll over and hit a ream low in like september or october but that gives people a -- that makes people comfortable and not being part of this until it goes, another 10% will say, oh, my god, what was i waiting for. >> i think that -- sure, you can go down there, but the fact is july was a great movement people who think it wasn't a great month are ignoring a lot of the performance. if you stay in this period, you'll find it very gratifying i don't think this is cataclysmic at all. >> jim >> yes. >> i want to get your thoughts thon visa case we've been talking about all morning, the stock down a little over 1%. but the bigger question is the liability for the board and potentially the criminal

liability for people like al kelly, the ceo of the company, continuing to finance porn hub a and others >> i was surprised i did not know that they did i think it would i think that this is a sense of that they can just say we agree with the regulators and then i think they get away with it. >> just so you know, this has been going on for years and brought to their attention years ago. they made the decision not to take the position you have said which is to say we are not going to be in business with these people. i think my too little too late -- visa have repeatedly said

it's not one business to police those but others do. >> they have been considered to be a common carrier. why should suddenly they find themselves to be liable for somebody. i don't know, i think they were same other companies never prosecuted to do anything bad. kelly criminally is unlikely. >> i think in this case you should read the decision. the evidence specifically brought to them in the highest levels there was clear evidence of a child trafficking or

really terrible and gross horrible things -- what where there is incidental criminality among doing things that have been wrong. this is my own view. >> i just thought that no one is only going after him. why didn't senator durbin, he has been investigating them for years. he can shame them into doing something right. something right. i'll do more work. (shelf falling) the aflac pre-pain show. aflac!

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also make a strategic investment in nominated director to the board of celsius. you have celsius up 10% of that news and pepsico unchanged in the premarket. that is moving celsius holdings. we all helped the down s&p positive side of things. they will work on that new proposal or agreement averting a strike that could have been in today. separately, sources tell cnbc the fda has approved protocols that should allow the jet maker to resent deliveries of extreme liners.

their of 4% of those boeing shares and since 6 to 7% of premarket gains you're talking 4250 points added to the dow just because of boeing. i will send things back to you. >> by the way, joe, i don't know if you are looking right now, we are moving down. i wonder if that is on the headlines and nancy pelosi is expected to land in taiwan in less than 24 hours from now. but they moved. i don't know if that's the headline that is moving things. >> we haven't seen the headline and it seems to coincide. it is 100 points. it is nervous. they threatened to shoot down the speaker of the house is plain and she says yeah, i am going anyway, that might engender a little bit of nervousness that does. what a great speaker.

>> i know you are very supportive if we are going. i think it is a mistake. that stark market opportunities with daniel shea, vice president of options as simply trading. what do you think? we are watching the markets move lower. normally i talk about earnings, but this headline about nancy pelosi landing in taiwan, what do you think? >> we are at high risk of it being over. i look for the market to trade higher into major thing earnings which we ended up doing last week. after that exuberance wears off the week after a lot of the time we tend to see the market rate lower in this is in line with the news. >> when you think about where we are in terms of what has the biggest potential to move lower, is it everything that moves last week higher, or you think that where the banks are right now? you look a big text, what do you think? >> what i am doing is focusing on earnings and focusing on tickers that have a high risk of earners destruction. these are companies that do not

have the underlying fundamentals to get through the economic conditions right now. we have a lot of tickers coming up on earnings. for example robin hood, uber, lyft, lucid. these are companies that will most likely report losses and the market will not handle it well. i am looking for those companies to trade lower. >> what would you buy right now? >> right now i am getting interested in the semiconductors in addition to cyber security. i know these are much riskier and volatile areas. i do think a lot of the companies that have reported in the semiconductor space have been trading higher post earnings. i am looking forward to nvidia and am looking at& this week as well. this year we have seen a huge increase in cyber attacks worldwide and i think these companies have come down far enough that it may be time to

look at them again to the far side. >> it is great to see you this morning. we appreciate it. final tech on the markets which are in the way it. the dow is down 123 points that seems to coincide with the news that speaker pelosi plans to visit taiwan tomorrow night tuesday night. haven't checked gold or any of the other things that might move on something like that. the tenure at the to six level. make sure to join usomorrow. squawk on the speak is next. good monday morning, welcome to squawk on the street. i am kyle king with jim faber. august begins coming off the best month for stocks since 2020 with a big week ahead. 150 s&p earnings, 0% of the consumer and a jobs number. futures are weak and oils are down a few bucks. we begin with a july stock rally matching since 2020. bill deadly warning against