such things don't believe the economy is in a recession now. may not get there. but this would be one of those signs that might suggest that, well, labor is falling back just a little, we'll see. and also rising unemployment claims as we've seen the past couple of weeks. >> thank you for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. earnings, fed speak and geopolitics sending stocks on another roller coaster ride today. drifting lower as we head toward the close. the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen take a look at where we stand. we're off 1% on the dow which is underperforming everybody else, down 291 the low of the day was down 375. s&p 500 has held up a little better thanks to strength right now in utilities, energy stocks and communication services some of the media names had a strong showing, names like paramount and warner discovery carrying that group higher

the nasdaq is stronger at the moment it's up 0.1 of 1%. small caps are also doing quite well, up a third of 1% treasuries are weaker, yields are higher and the dollar is stronger the chart of the day showing big moves on earnings. uber jumping 18.2%, turning cash flow positive for the first time pinterest is also soaring today, up almost 12%. and caterpillar is dragging on the dow after a revenue miss. coming up today, a big interview you will not want to miss we will talk to west virginia senator joe manchin about his surprise deal on a democratic spending bill and why he says the legislation is all about fighting inflation let's get straight to the market another choppy session as investors weigh the impact of earnings and the fed's policy path those simmering tensions between the u.s. and china as well in light of speaker pelosi's visit to taiwan. joining us is dan ives from wedbush securities to help put the earnings in context.

dan, what was the read-through from uber. >> i'd say it was probably the strongest quarter they have had since going public ebitda, profitability, rides looked strong in terms of the recovery it looks like finally darah and company has uber on the right path and that's what you see reflected in the stock i continue to think this is the first step to what's going to be a new uber strategy going forward. >> and what about the price, given you said armageddon-like expectations we're seeing a big jump today up 18%. do you still think it's a good value? >> our price target is 38. you can start to justify the stock into the 40s as that ebitda profile continues to increase and it's also about rides. right now i think they were early in terms from a strategy perspective cutting costs, starting to rationalize and now you're going to start to see the benefits i think this is an underearned stock on the street. obviously it's been a disaster

if you look back the last few years. but i think it's a new chapter for uber starting today. >> peter joins the conversation to take it a little bit broader. peter, how do you read some of these earnings reports which do speak to solid demand, uber's doubling of its revenue thanks to strong ride-sharing we had strong commentary from dupont, from marriott how does that fit into your negative view of the overall equity market? >> if we look at the earnings season overall, it's been a mixed bag on the demand side if you look at kimberly clark and some of the industrial companies, they're actually saying that we're seeing unit volume its fall on the higher prices so uber, i think, perhaps somewhat idiosyncratic, but mixed bag at best. a lot of companies have lowered their expectations coming into the earnings season. i think the next catalyst for

equities lower, that is, will come from guidance as the quarter progresses and higher prices and their impact on demand starts to bleed through to unit volumes and that's going to force a lot of companies to guide considerably lower. >> so you're not convinced on the earnings story what about the new geopolitical risk, how should investors think about what's happening right now between the u.s. and china >> yeah, i mean the tensions between the u.s. and china, especially with respect to security issues in the south china sea are nothing new. remember, newt gingrich took a trip during the clinton administration to taiwan and that upset them. there are some big differences now, however china is preemminence in the world has grown considerably there's a lot more trade that goes through the south china sea and taiwan now accounts for about 50% of semiconductor production so i think that's important. i think that's in the background

and is a longer term driver of potential tail risk. but, you know, sort of in the front view right now, the fed obviously as well as in my view margin compression that's going to take place almost inevitably. and guidance is showing that companies have been guiding lower. >> dan, you don't agree, do you? you're positive on a lot of what you're seeing in technology? >> well, and also i think there's two individuals, nadella and cook that disagree with that statement as well. if you look, last week they could have easily ripped a band-aid off look what you're seeing in terms of cloud and demand story holding up look at cupertino. across the board, especially given some of the negative expectations, it's been much better than feared that's really across big tech. i think that's why you're starting to see more and more of

a risk on. some of the haters, they'll continue to hate on tech, but i believe second half tech stocks move higher. >> are you a hater on tech >> i know dan is focused on tech and i'm referring more broadly to equities. in fact, positioning and sentiment were so negative, you'll recall last time i was on the show i said i thought we were in for a summer rally we've reversed that view and now our tactical view is more aligned with our strategic view. but look at ibm. ibm, their report was not as strong so i think there's a little cherry picking going on apple is not the universe of companies in the united states it's certainly an important one and it's one that you cannot ignore if you're using the s&p as a proxy to hedge your portfolio. but i think the broader picture is not nearly as rosy. >> well, it's a good debate and

one we'll continue to have as we get more results peter, dan, thank you very much for now. with the dow down about 276, after the break we'll talk to the ceo of the national bureau of economic research, the nber the group widely seen as the decision-maker to officially designate a recession. the key indicators he's looking at, next you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect.

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the big recession debate two quarters of consecutive negative gdp growth is one common way to define a recession. that's what happened in q1 and q2 of this year. only one group in the united states officially declares a recession and that is the national bureau of economic research, the nber joining us now is the president and ceo of the nber. jim, under the radar nber, did you ever think there would be so many articles and so much demand for what you have to say >> i will confess, sara, that i have been sprurprised by all th attention the last couple of weeks, absolutely. >> so tell us, how do you define a recession? >> the nber has a tradition of defining recession, peaks in economic activity and recessions which goes back nearly 100 years which goes back to leslie mitchell and eric byrnes and it focuses on finding

periods of time when a decline in economic activity is broadly dispersed across the economy and lasts for a period of at least several months so it's depth, duration and difusion are the three features of a downturn that the nber would look at in order to find periods that would be categorized as recessions. >> so is that what we're looking at right now >> the way the committee will try to assess data as it emerges is for those attributes. the committee doesn't rely on the two quarters of declining gdp definition for a number of reasons. first, it looks more broadly at measures of economic activity than just gdp. second, it is focused on a monthly chronology for peaks and troughs in economic activity if you're looking for monthly, gdp is reported at a quarterly

level so other indicators will tending to be important. and the third is in some sense that something as mechanical as two quarters of negative gdp admits if you have two quarters when there were very slight declines in gdp, minus 0.1%, minus 0.1% again, that might not add up to a deep decline in economic activity. think about something -- you know, a weather-related disruption in economic activity or some geopolitical shock which occurs in the second half of a quarter, it reduces economic activity just a bit in that quarter, bleeds other into the next quarter, but then it resolves and is relatively narrow in terms of its impact in the economy. that could generate two quarters of negative gdp but might not fit the rubric that would

normally be associated with a recession. >> got it. not that we're facing anything like that necessarily right now, that's why you wouldn't look at only two quarters of negative gdp. >> this is to conceptually explain in some sense why something as arbitrary as two quarters might not be helpful. >> what about jobs, how much does that factor into the picture? some wonder how can we be in a recession when we create jaukz and have a 3.6 unemployment rate >> employment is an indicator of economic activity and is one of the many measures that would need to be considered in thinking about whether the economy is expanding or contracting. i do think that it's important to know that historically low unemployment does not by itself rule out the beginning of a downturn because the recession, the downturn is about the change in activity, it's not about the level. so if you go back and look in the history of some of these

things, in july of 1953, the nber dates a peak in activity, the beginning of a downturn following that unemployment was 2.6% in july of 1953 it began to increase in august, by october it was up to 3.1% so that's an example of where despite the fact the labor market was tight, when the turning point arrives, you're seeing a decline in -- a rise in the unemployment rate, a decline in the job market at that point. >> so, jim, when do you expect to make this call about whether we're in a recession >> well, you know, the term data driven is, i fear, a little overworn at this point but the work of this committee is very much driven by the nature of the data and the degree to which different measures of economic activity

line up and speak with one voice. if you look back over the period since the formal creation of the business cycle committee in the late 1970s, on average it's been about seven months between the peak of economic activity and the month when the committee made an announcement or determination. for troughs, it's been even longer, closer to 15 months. in fact the committee announced in july of 2021 that the trough in economic activity in the most recent downturn had been reached in april of 2020 and i think a lot of people were scratching their heads and saying what's here it's important to know that in trying to figure out these peaks and troughs, it can often be easier to tell that things are declining or rising than to be able to assign a particular turning point. the committee's task is typically to get the precision of it's this month that can lead the committee to wait somewhat longer to get more

clarity from the data that emerges. >> we're in a midterm election year, no pressure to determine it before that i know you're nonpartisan clearly. so whether we're in a recession or not, is there any way to avoid potentially going into one, even if we're not in one right now, with the federal reserve hiking so much, with inflation so high. it's just not what we have been accustomed to in the last few years. >> i'll say two things first, on the point about we are in an election year. the nber has never taken political considerations into account in making these kinds of determinations it's a very nonpolitical process so i think that's very important to underscore. the other thing to mention is there's no -- there's no secret data that the committee is looking at these are all publicly available and all of the information on the state of the economy in some sense is available to everybody who is looking and really the committee in some sense is not trying had to the

same thing that many business economists and many of your viewers are trying to do, which is to make a real-time call on what's happening right at the moment the committee is really more motivated by creating a chronology which viewed retrospectively as we try to have a conversation about what happens during expansions, what happens during recessions, which gets that chronology consistent across circumstances in very different places in different times. so part of the judgment that comes into this activity is trying to align the very different circumstances that could be facing an economy in april or may of 2020 with the circumstances in the first half of 2000 when we were coming off the bursting of the tech bubble and trying to figure out how do you put the dating together in what are obviously very different circumstances. >> right

well, jim, we'll stay tuned. we're all ears thank you for joining us to demystify the whole process of how it works we appreciate it. >> great to see you, sara. take care. >> let's give you a check on where we stand on the markets. down 1% or so on the dow it's lower than some of the other indexes right now. the s&p, for instance, down half a percent. you've got big weights like caterpillar because of earnings, boeing taking 33 points off the dow, visa 35 points off the dow. just a handful of winners, salesforce, travelers. tesla is helping but microsoft, apple, amazon, intel, netflix all weighing the s&p down half a percent. up next we'll look at the chip space as $150 billion company amd gears up for results after the bell today that stock getting a lift today into earnings. plus, we are just minutes away from our interview with senator joe manchin on the democratic spending deal,

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welcome back to "closing bell." time for today's market dashboard. mike santoli here as always. t taking a look at the semi conductors with amd after the bell. >> if you're bullish on the market, you want semi conductors to lead. they're a pretty good bellwether group of cyclical and growth on a five-year look back they're holding above that breakout level from 2020. that's net bullish on the other hands, real loss of momentum, you'd probably wanting to see it rebuild a little bit of leadership. still consolidating these massive gains. that's 70 percentage points of outperformance relative to the s&p so maybe it is a little more digest digestion. when it comes to amd, it had

eclipsed intel in terms of equity market cap. here's what a 20-year look is like i can remember going back decades there was always a bull case for amd that it was going to have a window to outmaneuver intel in pcs and other areas a lot of that has come to fruition intel almost perfectly side waez a and amd is higher. amd is somewhat more reasonably valued it was a little more of a faith play right now it's a little over 20 times forward earnings and estimates have been rising going into the report. >> looking at the nvidia, it is the leader by far. >> it's the largest one in the group in the u.s. >> mike, thank you we'll see you in the market zone. still ahead, senator joe manchin on how his inflation row d reduction bill on how it will cool inflation. but first, katie stockton on the one stock that should be on your radar right now

we'll be right back.

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stocks are mixed another volatile session the dow is down triple digits. the nasdaq just hanging on to some gains joining us now is katie stockton to read some of the charts katie, i feel like lately you've been a sell the rally kind of mode are you impressed, though, by

what we got in july and do you think it's something sustainable? >> yeah, i'm definitely impressed and certainly surprised by the magnitude of the move, especially in the last week or so of july with apple's earnings showing a breakout there above its 200-day moving average. what that tells us is that we have some minor breakouts, and those breakouts could contribute to a more extended relief rally, but i don't think it's going to be the stuff of what we saw in july i think it will be a bit more muted for the s&p 500. it had some minor resistance around 4075 but it did manage to get through that the next resistance is roughly 4270 from here that's about 4% upside i think it would be really difficult to capture on the long side some people that are more short term in their orientation might be able to do that but with these relief rallies in bear market cycles, they're super difficult to take advantage of you really have to be there on the right day. >> so you still think that we're in a bear market

what about the low in june, do you think that is the low or do you expect to see lower lows >> i think that is a low, an intermediate term low but not a long-term low. we have improved intermediate term momentum but very much like past bear market cycles, that does tendi to happen, even more than twice you see these relief rallies that have a favorable impact on the intermediate momentum gauges but it's temporary, lasting weeks, not months. we saw it in 2008 and 2000 some of these relief rallies can get pretty impressive but they often give way to lower lows we do think this will be the case this time around as well. the s&p 500 support is still 3815 it's a level we've been watching for some time and we have about 5% room to that level. so here we have a risk/reward that's about a one for one ratio and that test isn't that

compelling. >> so as far as my final question, as far as drivers, katie, we've seen lately, we've been driven on stocks by treasuries, by oil prices, by the dollar the stock market seems to like weaker dollar at the moment, lower oil prices, and lower treasury yields. all three are going the other way today. which do you think has the strongest pull right now >> i think it's more about treasury yields right now more than anything else they do look oversold. that would probably affect the high technology stocks the most. so perhaps they'll be under pressure at least in relative terms in the very near term and we're talking a couple of weeks, not a couple of months, so that might have some impact but our bias on treasury yields is neutral beyond the next couple of weeks in terms of an oversold bounce so we think that influence will dissipate pretty.

>> katie stockton, thank you up next, senator joe manchin on how creating a corporate minimum tax and closing the carried interest loophole could impact wall street. tomorrow, join us virtually for the cnbc small business playbook, which offers insight and advice on how businesses can hedge against inflation and supply chain and labor challenges a good lineup there. to register, use the qr code on your screen. the dow is down about 300. we'll be rhtac ig bk. esg is responsible investing.

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legislation surrounding climate change, the tax code and health care costs may be coming soon last week senate majority leader chuck schumer and senator joe manchin announced they had struck a deal on a

reconciliation bill called the inflation reduction act of 2022, which they said would invest $400 billion over a decade and reduce the deficit by $300 billion. joining us now is senator joe manchin of west virginia senator manchin, welcome to the show good to have you. >> good to be with you, sara thank you for having me. >> so you told my colleague at msnbc earlier that you had planned to speak with senator sinema this afternoon about the bill have you done that yet >> yes >> and what can you tell us? >> we had a good conversation. >> is she supportive >> we had a good conversation, sara i'm not going to say any more than that because she does her own homework and she looks at the bill and looks at the content and she'll make her decision and give her reason for making her decision, i'm sure. but with that, we talked about just an array of different things and we'll leave it at that >> did you talk about carried

interest because i know you had said that she was on board in december about a lot of things, but this provision wasn't in that bill. >> well, we just had a good conversation we'll give her some information that we have and we'll share information back and forth, which is how we operate. it works out well at the end >> all right let me ask it a different way, which is if carried interest does prove to be a sticking point for her, would you be willing to negotiate on that point and what would that look like >> we've really had a good conversation, sara, and i'm not saying anything else i know you're trying and you're doing a great job. >> it's a key question >> yeah. well, it's a very delicate question too and we'll have to talk about all that. but we're just exchanging ideas and exchanging different information on each other's position we've always done that so we're not doing any different than we haven't done before. >> okay. so let's talk about the bill and

inflation. >> yeah, now we're talking. >> on cnbc so you bill it as an inflation reduction act but some of the early studies coming out, senator, are saying that it does nothing to fight inflation, especially in the near term. so isn't that a bit misleading of a title >> well, it's a bit misleading for those who come out and said that because there's been so many others that looked at it so favorably. i think just common sense, i know i've been involved with 17 nobel laureates telling me back in march almost a year ago that inflation would be transitory. the figures i saw and everything i was evaluating said it would not be it would be detrimental and harming to the people of america and guess what, that's what it turned out to be so i know different people have different opinions sara, what we're doing is basically paying down debt we're fighting inflation by producing more oil and gas and making sure that our fossil

industry can carry the load. we're making investments for more jobs, more energy, more jobs here in america with clean energy so we're basically taking care of the needs of energy now and basically investing in energy for the future and we're doing all that while we're reducing the amount of inflation or amount of prices for gas because i think all of us will agree the supply and demand, the more supply you have, the better chance you have of driving down the price. and that's going to be for gasoline, that's going to be for your home heating an air conditioning and everything else you're using so we're doing that. we're also paying down and reducing all the drug prices so when you think that millions of people across america will be paying lower drug prices because of medicare being able to negotiate, that's a tremendous factor they're not factoring any of these things on. all they're taking in is companies that haven't paid anything will be paying 15% minimum. the corporate rate was at 35%

before and that was way too high there was a bipartisan group of us in 2017 thought it would be reduced to 25. it went clear to 21. that was a 14% reduction that was great and people were tickled to death but i guess it's not enough. and all we're saying is companies who aren't paying or are paying very little if any at all and 55 of the largest corporations, this only affects, sara, companies that have a billion dollars of revenue or greater annually that will even be evaluated this way to pay a 15% minimum. i just can't believe that these patriotic companies don't want to help this country defending itself and do what we need to do to be the superpower of the world. >> 50% of those companies would be america's manufacturing companies at a time where, senator manchin, we're trying to reshore american manufacturing, aren't we? >> right we're putting -- >> does that impact investing decisions?

>> if you thought it was going to hurt, don't you think the last two years we would have seen record capital investments? you've seen the least capital investments with record profits. so the only thing we're saying is the thing they tell me most, is reliability that this government will let them do their job, permitting regulations, and that's what we're going to accelerate and streamline to where people can -- we can do things and build things much quicker than we ever have in the past that's all part of this package. so it's going to be wonderful from that end of it. >> well, the national association of manufacturers disagree they say the tax in 2023 alone will reduce gdp by $68.5 million. that's problematic >> i've heard also that the cdc, you've heard about that, the joint tax -- jtc, the joint committee on taxation, you heard that they said it was going to cause -- people paying taxes that made $200,000, which is

absolutely totally a lie, which is not the fact. what they're not telling you, sara, that only came out from one half of the republican side. the joint tax committee has two sides. you have a republican side, democrat side, they work together when they have a joint statement, it's by both sides. this only came from one side so a lot of this is being skewed right now. we are for the first time paying down our debt, $300 billion. haven't done that in 25 years. not in 25 years. we're paying down debt. >> but that doesn't come for five years sorry to cut you off, senator manchin. the deficit reduction doesn't happen for five years. it doesn't do anything about inflation now. >> when's the last time you saw us paying down anything. >> no, we have to k at that el our debt for sure, i'm just going back to the inflation question. >> okay. let me ask you this then how about as far as production don't you think you've got to produce your way out of this, work your way out of inflation

you can't just wait for the feds basically raise the rate until you quit buying anything production is the way to go. we're accelerating permitting which is every one of my republican friends have said we've got to do to get america back and the investments we're making on all the new technology is going to be production tax credits and investment tax credits. so let me give you an example. we have a coal-fired plant in west virginia that's closing down in two years. it's 1300 mega watt. there's a couple hundred jobs that work there. we have a company looking at buying it and turning it into green energy, making green ammonia to ship anywhere in the world. there's other opportunities if we keep our minds open and work together this is an american bill it's not a republican bill, not a democrat bill, it's not a green bill, it's a red, white and blue bill. for god sake, can't we come together and do something for our country? >> it's only voted on by democrats, right

you're doing this through reconciliation >> sara, the things we have in this bill are things that my republican colleagues have talked to me for the last year they were tickled to death for the $3.5 trillion spending bill of build back better i was totally opposed to i was the only one that couldn't get on board and then all this goes on and now i started talking again, see if there's a pathway forward i'm sick and tired of us running around the world asking people to do what we haven't done for ourself, produce more energy and they produce it in a much more climate harming way so there's so much we can do decarbonization works a couple of ways. if the united states of america produces more and we do it cleaner and we replace the dirtier product around the world, then we're decarbonizing. if you look at the geopolitical unrest and what russia is doing to europe by screwing down the lid so tight, they're going to basically have to make some

decisions. they go back to russia for their cheap dirty energy or can we help offset that that's what we've got to do. >> sure. what about this side deal bill for the $6.6 billion pipeline, natural gas pipeline that would run through west virginia. are you confident that you can get the votes for that to become law? >> it's the only piece of legislation we have basically that puts energy in production within six months, 2 billion cubic feet a day do you know what that does it's unbelievable. an it goes down through virginia to north carolina, it gets in the system, goes to the southwest. it basically gives us a chance to reduce the natural gas prices in america because we're putting production into the market we're not waiting five or ten years. 94% of that has already been built. it's been built, put in the ground, covered up, receded, gone and all we're saying is finish that, like the national production we need energy right now to get ourselves out of this mess

the only way you can get energy is by building and production. >> is there a path toward this happening? you would need ten democrats to vote, assuming all republicans vote yes on it >> oh, absolutely. this is a path it's basically a product that we're putting together all as one. that one has to be voted on separately because it doesn't fit into the reconciliation. and we have agreements from the president, we have agreements from chuck schumer and we have agreements from nancy pelosi that's all been worked together in that understanding, and they need it for renewables you can't build transmission lines taking in where the wind projects may be or solar projects unless we can get fast permitting and regulations that we can get this stuff done you can't bring it to market unless you can finish it. >> so you've got guarantees on that just back to the inflation reduction act, you mentioned, senator manchin, the drug pricing and so for a long time the pharmaceutical industry has been fighting this

but it looks like included in this bill medicare, the federal government will be able to negotiate prices sure, we all want to pay less for prescription drugs but we also want key innovations and new blockbusters in fighting cancer and heart disease and all these issues, which the industry says it will prevent because it totally changes the economics for them >> well, let's use some comparisons here the largest provider of health care in america is the va. the largest provider is the va so with them being the largest provider, they have been negotiating for the lowest drug prices for many, many years, way before medicare part d came into play and then george w. bush allowed pvms and all them to come into play, so that has not stymied at all innovation or creation medicaid has been negotiating for prices why shouldn't medicare why is not for some reason medicare not allowed to enjoy

the same low prices? why can't we put caps on life-saving insulin? why can't we do some of the things that we've been allowing other agencies to do that's all we've asked for and something we've all agreed on. i think 80% of americans agree that should be done. and we're -- that's in this bill >> i think they would argue, though, it makes the economics left predictable and makes it even riskier to go into high risk areas of research and development around the health care side. >> those drugs were never touched. those drugs they're talking about which are on the board right now just came into being and still -- and they still have the protection of the exclusivity. those drugs aren't being touched at all, sara it's only the ten most drugs, and it's just unbelievable -- >> well, they think it will expand ten and i think there's room for expansion into 20. but the bottom line, senator manchin -- >> it won't expand unless we

have legislation. >> why are you putting this in this bill? drug prices, i went back and looked at the cpi report in june 2.5% higher than last year this is not what is hurting americans, at least the primary driver of higher prices -- >> 80% of americans, democrats -- we're here representing our constituents. my constituents in west virginia want to be able to get lower drug prices through medicare and life-saving insulin they need. it's ridiculous. 80% of americans across this great nation, democrats and republicans alike, overw overwhelmingly, please, reduce the prices of drugs. this is a start. if they think this is going to disassemble the whole pharmaceutical and big pharma, i'm sorry, that's not going to happen >> no, i think they just think it's harder. it's not the primary driver of inflation. you've been critical, senator manchin, of the federal reserve in the past for being late and slow when it comes to the inflation fight. >> sure. >> do you think they're doing a

good job now >> well, they're coming on now they're doing their job now. it took them a little while to get kicked in, but they're doing their job. let's see what happens we can do an awful lot more by producing. taking the chains off of production for energy. let our oil companies do what they do. let's build some pipelines let's get some things done and i guarantee it will drive down prices they're just trying to basically stop everything or cut things down by putting higher interest rates so it takes the desire from people wanting to buy i want people to consume and be in the marketplace, i want them to have good opportunities i want them also to have an affordable energy price. inflation is killing us. it will not let up it's harming west virginians and harming everybody in america, i can assure you. >> who owns that who should get the blame for that the fed? the biden administration congress you passed $2 trillion of spending at a time when america was reopening. >> sara, that's not my job here

to blame people. you blame people, you never get things accomplished. my republican friends are upset for whatever reason, i don't know these are still my friends, they'll always be my friends we did three things they told me to do. they have always said can we produce more absolutely can't we pay down debt absolutely can't we streamline the permitting process absolutely in a normal time that wasn't this toxic because people hate each other so bad, i love them all. this is democrats and republicans. this is not their bill this is an american bill let the american people have a win. one time let them have a win >> what about china? in the news today clearly with house speaker nancy pelosi in taiwan, china has threatened serious consequences is it a mistake that she went? >> not at all. no, i think nancy pelosi did the right thing. >> you support it. >> we've all been there. i support it 1,000%. you can't let someone say you can't come to this country they have been a major trading partner of ours.

we have had great relationships. they embrace democracy and the freedoms of democracy. my goodness, we're afraid to stop and say how you doing are you doing okay can we work better together? we rely on them a good bit on our chips. now we'll have a robust chip industry i was basically very leery about electric vehicles because we were changing our transportation mode, sara, and basically being totally foreign supply chain depending on china for the batteries. and i said that's wrong. so if you want discounts on cars made in america, that battery better be made in america too. and that takes away from china also the dependency we have. so we have to be self-reliant also i respect china for who they are and what they have done. i don't agree with them but they have been very aggressive. we're going to get aggressive now. we'll be aggressive in chips, be aggressive in batteries and producing our own energy here in america. >> senator joe manchin, thank you so much for the time today, sir. >> thank you, sara

appreciate it always bye-bye. >> you too, from west virginia. we've got just about eight minutes of trading here and we are going to go straight into the "closing bell" market zone with the dow down about 360 points or so we've basically been drifting lower in this final hour of trade. joining us senior markets commentator mike santoli here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day mike, we have had a lot of fed speak today, which seems to have turned us lower. the 2-year yield had a bit of a spike and it is now above the 10-year yield. i wonder if all this fed speak about, hey, we're not cutting, we're not at the ends of our cycle, starting to make a dent. >> it's starting to complicate the bull case or interrupt a little bit of that upside momentum that we had over the course of the past few weeks based at least in part on the market's assessment that we might get the fed easing back off the hawkish path now, i think you have to take a lot of the fed speak today with

a grain of salt, because this is the party line they absolutely have to hammer away at to say the job is not done in inflation. but the bond market swings i think are relevant in the morning it seemed like the extreme flattening of the treasury yield curve was the pressure point, this idea that the three-month yield was getting close to where the 10-year was. and then we had this huge jump up in longer term rates as well over the course of the day you can see it there and whether or not that's a good or bad thing in terms of what it says about the economic outlook and the odds of recession, that kind of volatility in treasuries tends not to be the most comfortable thing for stocks all that being said, still pretty much hovering in this range. equities unable to get a lot of traction as the s&p 500 threatened the early june highs, which is also the upper end of the three-month reign. so i see it as digestion and apprehension after a big month we got last month in july, sara.

>> what did you think about senator manchin? clearly it matters for certain sectors. we've seen the solar stocks, for instance, run higher on the prospect of more spending. pharmaceutical stocks, he pushed back really hard against lowering drug prices what is the market expectation on whether this passes he wouldn't give me anything on senator sinema even though he said they had a good conversation. >> aside from the isolated kind of renewable energy plays, it's the minimum corporate tax that's proposed in the bill this idea that you have some low tax rate companies that would probably have to pay more, i think we saw jpmorgan say it might subtract a dollar on net from s&p 500 earnings if it were in place at the start of 2023. that's not really that big a deal obviously sector by sector, there would be significant moves. certainly pharmaceuticals, probably at least on a sentiment basis would not love the idea of the drug prices. but look, i don't think anyone

thinks this is the thing that's going to stoke or suppress inflation despite what the bill is called. >> exactly, something i was trying to get at let's hit paypal kate rooney is here with a key number to watch for and this stock which has been battered from its highs, kate. >> the number one thing to watch for paypal is the executive search the cfo left earlier this year for walmart so there's concerns that the ceo doesn't have an heir apparent. there's a bit of a void on the management side. the second is the elliott investment paypal has not acknowledged that publicly but it sparked speculation about a possible pinterest combination. finally guidance may have to come down based on the international business and currency headwinds as well as a slowdown in china. the bar has been lowered in prior quarters the question for this quarter, is it low enough heading into earnings this time we'll see you in a few minutes back to you. amd is the other big name set to report. kristina partsinevelos has a

preview of that name. >> amd updated their annual guidance in mid-june so making expectations just a little bit more accurate and possibly easier to beat but there are three points i want to focus on we've got to talk about weakness in pc sales that has plagued several chip makers, intel being the latest the second point is data center strength, especially after intel reported a 16% year-over-year unexpected drop. so the big question is will amd have the same trajectory or show market share increase. wells fargo analysts expect amd server cpu business to double in the second quarter that's a big move. lastly, that third point, graphic chips. the prices have been dropping. nvidia saw its high-end gpus dropping so the question is what will that mean for amd and gross margins. amd stock still underperforming the s&p 500. but if you look at amd versus intel the last three months, look at the difference you've got amd 10% higher in the

past three months versus intel you may get 19%. we'll have amd's earnings in less than 15 minutes. >> and we will look to you then. kristina, thank you very much. mike, i was watching this group all day today to see if there was any kind of reaction with taiwan with nancy pelosi there, obviously because the chip sector has so much on the line when it comes to these tensions which appear to be escalating between the u.s. and china. >> yeah, not spechkifically it was much more potentially about any kind of china response and more of a macro geopolitical risk appetite play but even that seemed to have fizzled over the course of the day. >> what do you see in the internals? >> very mixed. the nasdaq has been negative you mentioned on the dow caterpillar's decline has had an outsized influence you see there just about even here, 50-50 advancing versus declining volume

amazon, huge move higher over the last few weeks but look at that, all it really did is bring it to the underside of the prior long-term range so i think it's a wait and see right now. the volatility index is still below or pretty much near the bottom end of its own range that we've been in for a little while but it's inching up. the bond market volatility is not helping here ic ic. >> the 2-year back near 3% we're down almost 400 on the dow jones industrial average the big impact on caterpillar which is dragging down the dow off the earnings miss there, 72 points off the dow itself. boeing is also shaving a good chunk off the dow and sos ivisa. salesforce, travelers and walmart are positive s&p 500 is at the lows, down 0.7 of 1%. now the worst performing groups today, real estate, financials,

industrials and materials. all those sectors are down 1%. the nasdaq had been positive when we started the final hour of trade it has gone lower. tesla is holding it up a little bit. small caps negative at the close. that's it for me on "closing bell." i'll see you tomorrow, everyone. now into "overtime" with scott wapner all right, sara, thanks so much welcome, everybody, to "overtime. you just heard the bells we're just getting started here at post 9 and a slew of earnings starbucks, paypal, amd, electronic arts and others we have our reporters standing by to break in the minute those numbers hit. also mark newton on why he thinks a hot sector might roll over we begin with ou