it's not true to me that that is the case, but that's an arguable point. as i say, if it's a really weak job number tomorrow, and we realize and that's why it is so inverted. if it's a really strong number, maybe we will say that the feds are telling us that they are not going to be friendly for a long period of time. from what we know, i agree. >> will keep an eye on apple and those other stocks. michael, i will see you tomorrow. another way, another big earning. breaking down the numbers on bringing you the trade. looking backwards, the big trend in the oil markets right now and what that says about where energy stocks are going from here. we are keeping our eye on tesla. we will be watching those and bringing the headlights. i'm currently reagan for this

evening. in the heart of times square and on the desk tonight, we have karen, and tim. they all came to play. we are going to start to the countdown of july. you are looking at more than 200 new pavers to be added. it's a bit of a slowdown for me, but one of our traders is a different sector. we should be paying attention to it. housing and mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level since april. mortgage apps low for the first time. this is where we should be looking for hints of whether we are in a recession or not. why do we need to pay so much attention to high inflation and unemployment? >> we've got two eyes. we put one on each ball here. the jobs are going to be incredibly important, because it speaks to the consumers ability to pay for mortgages and services at a higher level.

the accelerating growth of around 20% to 13%, the claimant existing home sales. week of america reported mortgage rates were down 30%. you add all of that up and they will say, we've got, so home prices are going to crater. i'm not calling for a gnc, but you don't need things to consider for us how much slows down. we need housing to be that engine that drives us forward if other risk assets fall down. if you have a slowdown in housing and construction, and exhilarating spending in home improvements, and financial services around mortgages, servicing and origination. all of that backs up and contributes to that employment number. we need housing to be that link that holds. if we do see employment in other sectors. >> there have been four times

in a fed tightening cycle when the fed didn't call for recession in 1966 and 2019. in this period, we saw the bottom in housing data, according to the nahb's. >> that was spot on with that. one of the powers of this rally and creation around housing and stephanie catton, so who is the patriarch of mmt. she came out on twitter an hour or so ago and said, mobile coordinated recession. the point is that if you listen at your own in june as he walked up , he expectedly said, by the way, you millennial's are think about buying a home, you may want to think again. karen pointed that out at the time and clearly trying to squash a little bit in the housing market. that is probably a healthy thing, but you look at the data points here and consumer savings

is that multi-your low-end consumer debt is at multiyear highs. these things don't warrant the market to hire from here. >> is there any action? >> >> it was quite a nice run at the bottom. we talked about it that day. it's not that they want housing to contract, it's that they needed to contract, because it is essential to the economy. inflation is so high. they needed to contract. that is a byproduct of collateral damage that they are willing to accept. i don't think we are near their, so we got a report on zillow, which i do on zillow. the second quarter starting to slow down and things are a little better in july than june. we are expecting a meaningful slowdown. we are expecting judgment they are right in the center. they are expecting advertising slowdown, transaction slowdown

and i don't know if -- i don't know if rates are going to hang out here. that would sort of make it okay, because it comes a little. i do think housing is going to be in recession. the other thing about payroll, i don't even know where looking for. i don't know what good is. is it a better number, hot number, call number and then people think, that's cold, so it's good, so we will have the feds ease up. i really don't know. >> i know you're shaking your head. >> it gets tough. see the employment numbers look worse than we think that we are saying, the fed has said, we are not in a recession despite two gp readings, because the market has been so strong. if it's week, are we not in a recession? because we are in recession, are we no longer going to tighten? is a recession now the bull case? if it's too hot, the buzz --

they need to migrate. they are out of here. that definitely isn't the bull case. i don't know what the bull case is. >> tim, i want to get you in here. there are a lot of things you can pull on, but i was thinking about the feds wanting to see some weakness in the housing market. our monetary policy is trying to pull things down and it is working. we need some signal that what we are doing is having an impact. >> financial conditions and the housing market is probably front and center. it is the biggest bubble out there. of course, they want to have the market to off. of course, the feds need to state -- on this. the high inflation and we got a big problem. if you look at the housing center sector does what it was at the bottom on june 17th. we started to heat up this

week, come back last week and gave people a sense that i am not neutral. we are not at neutral. we an talk about this till we are blue in the face or until inflation comes back before -- below 4%. the entire rally in the market is incredibly on lower rates. we are down to 257. you see what happened to the inversion. i think we are 36 basis points or 35 business points today and counting. what we want to see? we want to see wage growth cool off a little bit. i would say cooled off but i would say it was not hot. when we look on a year-over- year basis, i think we are a few months away from this labor market cooling off. that is what the fed needs to be. they're not going to tell you that, but that the best thing to happen. are you have strong opinions about what he has said. as you look at this report, what are you looking for and

what you did the feds should be looking for? >> respectfully, i think he said it great. quite frankly, they have done a really nice job. things seem to be moving orderly and nothing is out of commission yet. i don't think -- the job market should not be and inflation is front in center. i know commodities have fallen off significantly. even if you take a 30% haircut, which karen said will probably be the peak number for the foreseeable future. you are still talking about and vision somewhere in the midst, which is three times where they wanted to be. added to that 2%, which is not overnight. regardless of what we see, the market is taking its peers from weaker data. i think they are tucking the wrong. >> the market is in danger of

giving back. vice president at cic wealth. malcolm, thank you so much for joining us here today. why do you think investors should not get too comfortable with the games we have seen? do you think recession is on the horizon? >> i have been firmly in the already we are in a recession and refuse to admit it since april. i would certainly -- i expect this earnings season to be a bit more down. there are bigger missions on earnings and revenues across the board. it's not all exciting to me to see markets react positively less than terrible. i didn't hear any real projections of layouts, staff or just making some financial pregnant event more than anything else. i do actually expect that we will start to get some analyst revisions toward the end of earnings season that will be less than positive, which could be that thing that cools off

the excitement that bubbled up to the surface a little bit all throughout july, which we are not talking about. >> earnings are less than terrible, but worried about holding onto these games here in july. tomorrow, we are talking about how we look at these delight job reports. we don't know what to make of it when it comes. is a strong, good, bad and how will you be advising clients or treating your work around this and hoping for? >> i think all of the guests have already said. i am hoping for a number that is not stronger than 372, because it tells us the fed is likely to get even more hawkish then we are hoping they will be. we are really hoping that we will be going into the direction -- i don't know how realistic 258 is, but toward the end of this year, they are not going to need to intervene at the level that they have so far.

maybe that is the good news for the market for the next year, because if they do have to remain hawkish and basically kill all the bugs that are still out there, that is still bad news longer term than we are expecting or than the market seems to be expecting. jobs number somewhere with the to handle, and implement rate somewhere around 3 1/2 and we have artie come to expect. it tells us that we don't have to make any changes to what we are expecting. >> thank you for being on. we talked about this interpretation of the pivot. i think all of us on the desk didn't agree with that. sent out an army of hawks and they have been talking all week. today, they are particularly hawkish. do you think the market believes that the feds will be hawkish or do you think they will be come 2023? >> i think the market is responding exactly as the fed

came out and said. 75 basis points are off the table for the remainder of the year. even so, if we see august turnouts similar to july, i have to assume that there are a lot of folks in there expecting that they will actually see some cuts next year, which i predict it from some folks and i don't think it's realistic. there are so many unknown until the fed comes out again in september and makes a prediction. if we get a cpi number that has come down considerably to maybe a six or seven, then maybe that does say to the fed, take your foot off the gas a little bit and you can hang out here and not have to intervene so much. i just don't know how likely that is to happen. like you just discussed, housing is a big impact on that cpi number. we haven't done much to address the housing supply problem,

which brings down that number, because it also gets folks who have been renting and want to buy into the camp of now but and bringing down what it costs to actually rent an apartment. until we address the housing problem that we have at least everything you guys just talked about, i just don't see how cpi comes down to the point that says to anybody that you can expect. >> it is definitely a key problem. before we let you go, i want to get your top pick. this is a growth name, but you are wrecking microsoft. how do you like this one? >> i added to my microsoft personally last week right after the earnings. i was going into earnings and expecting microsoft to say, we missed earnings by x amount, because consumer demand wasn't what we thought it would be. instead, they basically said that we expect to do more of the same and basically reiterate

how earnings production that we had three months ago and expect the next fiscal year the next four quarters to see something like $100 billion in cloud revenue that is already on the books. i have to imagine that they are projecting it out. to me, microsoft being as big and impactful as they are and saying that they reiterate the same guidance that we had three months ago at a time when the market is supposed to be kind of soft, it tells me what we are likely to see in the next 6 to 12 months in some of these larger. >> microsoft has about 10%. good job on your timing. you very much for joining us here. what do you make of microsoft or any of the data points that malcolm brought up? >> the cloud with microsoft is an area and i don't blame for making the decision. warner bros. discovery plunging after its

nfenalcoming up next. we are

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welcome back. we have an earnings alert on warner bros. discovery, the streaming stocks shrinking after more than 9 1/2%. they have been listening in and she joins us with the latest. julia, what's being said? >> warner bros. discovery shares dropping as david says they have identified some additional unexpected challenges that have and will continue to acquire our focus and attention. the talk of inflation and the threat of a recession and the like. they are adjusting their guidance and talking about that right now. he was going into some details about the plans to merge xp l max -- hbo max and the new combined service in the u.s. slowly roll it out in the europe and asia and are not rushed, but will be disciplined

and focused on the possibility of the service. as for what it will look like, they say the new scale of content options and improved user experience will minimize overturn and improve monetization. david zaslav and his colleagues are talking about the addition in an ad free -- in addition to the ad free version, they are seeing an opportunity for a totally free ad supported version of this new streaming service, where they will use that to onboard new subscribers who could potentially pay for another version down the line. they are also referencing that controversial decisions of the $90 million movie may have taken some aggressiv challenges there, they are focusing on possibility. >> for the last few days, you have seen the story and all of the bad news out.

this is a lot of news between cnn and -- they are making a lot of changes to a really noisy quarter, but do you think that is what's happening? >> i am just looking at the notes. i took them on the beginning of the early and they said 2022 will be a transition year. they are trying to figure out how to combine the companies concerned and why they'll be disciplined and careful about the rollout. when it comes to the back end and figuring out what they will be doing to run this new combined, it does seem like they are trying to get all of the bad stuff out of the way. logistically, it makes a lot of sense to make the strategic decisions. how do we handle the accounting issues? it does make sense to handle all of these from julia. thank you.

what do you make of this? it is messy. >> it is really messy. it seems like we get a little bit in the last few weeks. some of the other streaming companies is i think. i don't know what to make of it. it's too messy right now. i hope the transition is code for kitchen sink. they should do what they should do. getting it out once in a very big way is much better than the water torture drip every quarter. >> that is probably true. tim, do you have any thoughts? >> i think a lot of these things that we are really heavily beating up is that the stock has had a massive movement in these numbers. it is almost 30% in 24 or 25 days. the entire streaming, bundles and packages and in terms of the fundament around and evaluations that people are putting on these is the assets and content, it's at an all- time low.

the quality dynamics in terms of where prices may be challenged somewhat in terms of the consumer and where the competitive landscape has been brutal. for so many of these companies, this is an opportunity. i'm not saying that this is the one you want, although that content was always considered cream of the craft. and a big enough is given in terms of value. >> it is so messy from a consumers point. i'm trying to figure out how to watch something. was it hbo, hbo max -- with looking like? are we have a lot to get through here. earnings-per-share, steve has the details. >> was shares are up. after solid beats on adjusted eps. loss of recent expected and a solid beat at $79.1 million going away expectations of

$20.5 million. speaking of that, ceo called just now and for 2024, is expected to reach $1 billion. that goes up even more. for q3 guidance, the x company expected revenue 1.0 billion to $1.06 billion. it is lower than the 36% growth in 2021. growing significantly up 50% to nearly $377.2 million. by the way, i chatted with president johnson simmer about that and he told me that the net loss was largely due to the tightening around interest payments and partnering with a large insurance companies to hold saying that those are part going apart inflation. is going to be on the squawk box tomorrow morning and breaking down the results at 8:14 a.m. >> would you rather lift or uber? >> lyft is the answer and has

been for a while. if you lived in this quarter, it wasn't a disaster. 2.1% and a 3.1% this quarter last year. he slowed down to me is mitigated by the effect that there are more efficient companies. they are first to run it better. the stock is at $12 a couple of weeks ago. i think we will be talking about a stock that doubled over three month period. this quarter is --. >> you got these losses and revenue growth is slowing, which makes sense as a growing company, but we would have this strong. what do you make of it here? >> we anticipated a strong quarter from lyft. in the u.s., you got it or would you rather gain. it's more of a pure play in term of its ride-share. as they look for growth and if

revenue remains -- i don't want to say stagnant, but lower than potential in terms of what they are achieving. if they are looking for any strategic to add to that business. >> to become the less pure play. got it. here is more to come. here is with coming up next. >> watch out below. oil plant prices are slipping. the lazy crazy days of summer for the energy market. cities top commodities experts says prices are hitting. stock is ingrained this month. will it go higher here? stick around to that trade and more. you are watching fast money, live a from the market side in times square. we are back right after this

welcome back to fast line. tesla is saying there is an improvement in the stock. meanwhile, check out dropping $90 a barrel since russia has invaded ukraine. a global recession has put a dent in demand. look at for future curves in backwardation. as oil trade and prices down the road. joining us not to talk about what this means for the energy trade is city global head of commodities research. ed, is backwardation a really bad signal here because of what it says potentially about demand and what the global economy will be looking for in terms of energy in the fossil fuel?

>> absolutely. only had a strong accusation in the first place, there is much as $40. what that meant is that $10 one month after the other, it varies tremendously and longer expecting. it is expecting things to loosen up. that is largely driven by what we are seeing on the inside, especially in the u.s. for the rest of the world and what we are seeing on the supply side. against demand and more supply, less demand. something that has to be concerning companies and while something very pleasant for the consumers. >> we are just starting out the month of august, but this can be a productive month when we are talking about hurricanes historically. what is the risk that we can have some kind of stick if there is a big parking that hits? >> i think you picked the one

major risk that lies ahead in the market. it's a major risk as we have seen in the forecast from the government. normally, the third hurricane happens the earliest it happened -- this year, it is august 3, we had it near the end of june. the u.s. government is forecasting 6 to 10 hurricanes and 36 of those hurricanes are a hurricane three or higher. why is this different than the past? we had a significant hurricane season. in 2020, we had the pandemic around the world and u.s. production fell from 30 point million dollars a day to $10.2 million. this year, we have seen the world really depending on u.s. production. we started the year with u.s. export that were around $7.8 million a day, and that

includes products. a week ago, we had the u.s. data showing a gross exporter of $10.9 million a day. i think that is a record breaking number, but it meant that with the russian ukraine disruptions and dislocation to the world, europe in particular, it has been extremely dependent on the u.s.. we have a hurricane season and an active one. we have $1.8 million a day and $2 million a day of climate capacity or a point million of algae exports. the world will see that and you have gas prices into the higher levels and oil prices are quickly turning and going back to 120 or even 130. we have that, but the world -- is

to the infrastructure, meanwhile we are seeing much more supply. >> valero made an all-time high a few months ago. what is a sweet spot to names like that in the refineries and big names? they love high prices and not so much now. >> the finest love it. that is terrific when we had massively high for gasoline and diesel. these are come up significantly. the gasoline parks are really basically collapsing from where they were. they are an issue and gasoline demand is gone down. walter december, january and february see u.s. gasoline demand growing significantly. now, with the latest several weeks of data, we are seeing gasoline not only below a year ago, by about $1 million a day

for gas or diesel and the lowest since 2020. that is remarkable. the refiners are concerned about where it is going and they are happy that the price of crude is going down. without the product demand, they are not going to get the profits from diesel. >> art market does look like it is pricing in a recession going forward. thanks for joining us. bonawyn, what is your take? >> heads versus unhedged production is going to be a big creative disparity between players. we see them open, we see them close, reopen and i think that is going to speak volumes in terms of shock to the demand side. >> that has been a problem for a lot of different companies. meanwhile, auctions traders are betting supply and demand. mike

joins us with the action. what do you see? >> we are looking at marathon oil. this is the e&p marathon and not npc, which is the refining side. they have village doubled and the activity we saw was actually becoming the largest, with the sale in september of 24 calls and 1500 of those go off. it was almost 2000 of those treated hand. found not going to regain the levels as last week as a small consolation. i think it is probably going against. they will collect over 3.7% and a little bit of upside, maybe 15% by december. it will go up on the 16th. >> that's a good one. be sure to tune into the full show tomorrow at 5:30 p.m.

eastern time. i will be here, too. coming up, cannabis the ceo is breaking down the corridor. that is ahead. congress is dumping partnership with a major investment firm. we'll talk about that deal when fast money returns. get your trades to go with the fast money podcast. catches anytime, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcast app. we are back after this. when hurting feet make you want to stop, it's dr. scholl's time.

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welcome back depressed money. crypto announced that the partnership with blackrock will allow its institutional clients to buy bitcoin. much as 40 percent of their highs. tim, you flagged this one. i find the timing very interesting as we see the price continued to fall. are they a little late to the game? >> first of all, this was an extraordinary in expression of ripping somebody's face off, which is exactly what goes on. client base is a little over

16% now. it has been in the mid 20s. about a month ago, you have seen some of that come in. the absence of blackrock's client base is an enormous opportunity. that type of endorsement speaks volumes to the quality of what's going on at quimby's. toynbee's has been a correlation of one to the underlying price of that coin and some of the other digital currencies. that is the dynamic. they are going to report next week what has been flagged. i think it is something that shows we will have to continue to chase. >> got it. bonawyn, you have been walking watching micro strategy. >> i think i had a colleague who has been in it for a while. essentially, people look at it as a leverage for bitcoin. operating cash flow positive there and they have taken some debt to buy bitcoin.

the breakeven is around 30 or 20,000 or 21,000, but they do still have an engineer. it is just another way to play that bitcoin. >> karen, what do you think? >> i think it is a really interesting position. they put the stake in the ground relatively early. i don't know the economics of this deal, but have access to that blackrock or blackrock has access to client base is huge. i feel like that is a game changer and a stamp for approval . >> clearly investors are liking it too. traders have their pick for the ones you should be watching. you have to stick with us to hearhe tm. seeing green and investors showing about the green thumb. they continue on its high. when we return.

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now is green thumb ceo. thank you for being here. it is such a key whenever we are talking about cannabis, especially when you are talking about the legal market versus the nonlegal market and everyone is throwing inflation as an excuse on things when it don't go right. how does inflation play a role in your company and what happened this quarter? >> thank you for having me. it is certainly a factor. u.s. consumers are under pressure. the u.s. consumer is alive and well to cannabis. there is strong demand. we see an improvement of 5% quarter over quarter and 15% year-over-year. it is bringing our margin over 30% again this quarter. >> are you going with the new customers? are you growing with increasing by current customers? what is your demographic of who is buying from you?

>> there are new customers coming in the store every day. we are seeing strong demographics every day. states are coming online. legally by cannabis, we have a large market share in new jersey and it's growing. portfolio in the country. we are going to see connecticut and rhode island go from medical to adult use later this year. in 2003 and 2024, states like virginia, new york and others. u.s. legal cannabis industry from 25 billion into a number like 50 or 75 billion over the medium and long term. >> then, it's tim. great numbers. the sequential growth is something that i think investors are happy to see. i think you and i can agree that the investment community sometimes is more focused on the macro. one of the great things about gpi's performance is consistently and predictably.

talk about the business you are in and what you saw in the trends. new jersey was a major driver in the state coming online. the core business is solid. talk about that. >> the core business is solid, because the core u.s. consumer continues to demand cannabis for well-being or branding our products. they are getting incredible traction around the country. we are seeing the number one prewar brand. as we bring these branded product people in new jersey, new york, virginia, connecticut and rhode island, we are seeing a lot of brand recognition and a lot of relationship with the consumer. cannabis is a growth industry. month after month, quarter over quarter, but looking at 3 to 5 industry being way bigger than they are today. >> i have to ask about macro dynamics. it does drive a sentiment in effect there. anything before midterms or anything before year end that will move the market? >> there is a lot of talk in d.c., but we can see faye

speaking and a major u.s. stock exchange, which pesters a lot of american sitting at home. we see care went behind the stock. >> thank you very much, ben. tim, your take on cannabis as an investor. >> cannabis like every other high gross high multiple high- risk sector has treated at a beta to the underlying market. you see the type of rally in the cannabis sector that you see in other spaces. cannabis was the ultimate consumer treated during covid. i think you are starting to see this inflection. you are going to see much better growth in the second half of the year. he should not be investing in cannabis on a federal headline you are expecting to see. do your work and homework, evaluation was in cannabis. >> where are you on the cannabis trade? is it too far off for you?

>> it is different to say. i have never grown any. i wouldn't say that. i have been waiting a while to seal see how things evolve. sometimes there is disappointment, even when we talk about approval. i haven't really saw the evolution and certainly not as loosely asked him. i don't have exposure, but i'm not against it. >> i won't go down that road, but for years now, constellation brands were so early to the space. they are reaping the rewards now. the stocks are at an all-time high. so much in the stock for years. >> they thinking issue in that been brought up. that is a big deal. will break down the big moves and the trades on those names. we are back in two.

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creamer delivered right to your inbox. sign up now at cnbc.com/join the club. you can see it on your screen. we are back with the traders twice. up first, the chipmaker is jumping on 6% from light guidance on tuesday. you'd like to move on this one and it's not because you like what you saying? >> i was surprised about how much it got hit. i think the bounce back is nice, however i still find it expensive. i know it's down a ton, but as great as it is is, the commentary wasn't so great. i'm just being honest. >> guy, what do you make of it amd? >> actually broke through today, so that's probably having more room in it.

i'd rather be in crop and then it amd. are next up, eli on earning investments and forecasts. how was your take on this one? >> 10% on this quarter and it wasn't. i don't know if that is a good thing or bad thing, wildcard here is clearly the old-timer strong, if that were successful, we are talking about 50% from here. it should have been down a lot more, and it's not. i take that as an encouraging sign. >> i am ready for the alzheimer's. >> i do believe that if you are going to see stocks, i think we should be turning it near the end.

we seem to have a great run and not a big surprise. >> the payment processor is suspending hard payments and the parent company might get their lawsuit alleged. the district of power on the site. suspending car payments. what do you make of this? >> they should. i'm going to focus on the result and not on how we -- there is a lawsuit that was seemingly overturned. some people argue that they are strong into this. i'm just glad they took action. anything remotely sniffing around child pornography is a no-fly. mike absolutely not. i am glad they took action and i will be following the case to see how it develops. >> what is your take on this

one? >> we see no and falls in demand. it gets two multiples. i think it is not a multiple here. whether you want to pay for visa and a share on 23 estimates from the street, you can do that math. you are 25 or 26 times. not relative to itself and this is where it chimes in. i do think visa is certainly well positioned here and the consumer is not dead. >> up next, the final trade.

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let's get another check on tonight and after hours. surging 21%, at its highest level from nearly three months. more than 50% and that is at a record number of large customers. beyond meat shares are down about 1%. projected volume growth will be lower than expected in july and shares down almost 7%.

warner bros. after our goes down almost 12% now. karen, what a mess. >> it is a hit or miss. it is very noisy and i really want to listen to the call. i think this might be -- it has gotten crushed. not a three day, but you've got to shake out a lot of -- disappointed. >> will leave the three day rule to this one. it is time for the final trade. 10? >> let's talk about energy and exxon. what we heard was both x is growing slower and you will hear all time it's been a full market and talked about where the future was in backwardation. exxon plays a lot of money and debt in oil prices, which are where well below where we are today.

it is a very big pullback. >> karen? >> i like it down and i like it on its ay up. >> for microsoft, despite the run-up. >> guy, take us home. >> i will take the courtney reagan my mission is simple. to make you money. i am leveling the playing field for all investors. i am kramer. my job is not just to entertain but to dedicate