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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  August 5, 2022 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

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getting stronger, not weaker wages are going up so people have more money, they're spending more money, they have more money than they had pre-covid. they're spending 10% more than last year, 35% more than pre-covid. that doesn't sound like a recession to me, currently. >> mr. dimon gets the last word there. thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" right now. a wild session here to ending the trading week as investors try to make sense of that scorching hot jobs number the most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." take a look at where we stand in the market at one point we were down 1.1% on the s&p we're down half a percent. the dow on the verge of going positive we were positive, up 55 is the high of the day. down 237 is the low of the day the tech stocks are getting hit the hardest on these rising rates. what's holding up the market today, energy stocks on higher
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oil and financials on higher rates. materials just ticked positive but consumer discretionary, communication services, technology, those are the losers it's a reversal of what we've seen in july here's a look at some of today's biggest earnings movers. lyft a winner up 16% carvana, it's up 41% after being left for dead. amc also surging to the upside while warner brothers is selling off, down about 17%. we've got a big show coming your way. we will talk to former treasury secretary jack lew about today's blowout jobs number, plus why he is endorsing the inflation reduction act and what he makes of senator sinema's changes to the bill. wingstop saying that meaningful deflation should benefit its results. we're talking chicken wings. the ceo will join us to explain. mike santoli has a closer look at the market reaction and
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the jobs report, which more than doubled estimates. what a shock, mike what are you watching? >> it really was relatively muted response in aggregate from equities. it mostly triggered a rotation rather than a stampede out or into all stocks. s&p 500 has pretty much held above 4100 all day even earlier in the week on tuesday we got below that so we didn't even wobble down to the week's lows so far now, it still remains right here at this upper end of the trading range. you mentioned banks, energy strong, that reflationary cyclical groups. disinflation, lower yield beneficiaries in growth are giving some back what it shows me in part is that the rally since mid-june has not just been about for hopes for a fed pivot. all of that has helped but it's also about the plausibility of a relatively sturdy economy and soft landing. take a look at the 2-year note yield. this has been a dramatic response this is a stand-in for what the
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market expects of the fed over the next couple of years pretty much going back to the highs. so 3.40 or so right here back in june was the high. we're pretty much as high as we've been in three weeks so still saying that maybe the fed will have to go 75 basis points in september, maybe a couple more after that. we could again start to price in a final terminal rate of 4% but we're not there yet, sara. >> so this bear market rally that we got, 9% in july, continued through this week. is it over if it was fueled on the idea that the fed is going to take a pause on hiking interest rates >> if that's all that was going on, if that was the sum total of the buying impetus, yeah, i would say it's pretty much in deep question if that's the case clearly it's not just that i think you also had 80% of all earnings are through companies didn't say demand is falling apart. you still have some relatively sticky earnings estimates for the second half of the year.
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so i think the idea is the market can thread the needle for a little while longer. >> two cpi reports we'll get one next wednesday which might be more important than even the jobs report. >> very likely that could be massive surprise and the market took it in stride. at least the stock market did. >> mike, thank you. wall street has been weighing in on that jobs surprise a goldman sachs chief economist expects a more hawkish fed as a result >> i think it does increase the possibility that the fed is going to have to do more our expectation is a 50 basis point move at the next meeting, but i think this increases the risk of 75 >> some other tidbits we gathered, an economist from renaissance macro says the report is consistent with an inflationary boom, saying the fed needs to get more aggressive
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in pushing up rates, making the hard landing scenario more likely bank of america now looking for the fed to lift its target range from 3.5 to 3.75 and unifed says they likely overtightened policy joining us, karen kimbro, michelle meyer as well ladies, welcome to both of you on this big jobs report. michelle, do you agree that perversely the better news on the economy and the jobs sets us up for a harder landing, a worse recession potentially because the fed will have to do more tightening >> well, i think it shows that there's more fundamental strength in the economy and if people are still seeing this type of job growth and still getting that type of income in, they're still out there spending which means in order to properly cool down that demand side economy and take out that inflationary pressure, it means
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the fed really might have to do more as a lot of those forecasts would suggest. does it mean that there will be a hard landing per se? no, i don't know that's a fair conclusion but it's a fair balancing act the fed has to do in terms of cooling the economy just enough to reduce inflation without pushing it into that downturn. but clearly there is just a lot more momentum, particularly from the labor market, than many people gave credit to. >> karen, does it jive with your data at linkedin and how do you square this kind of strength at this point in the cycle with negative gdp growth >> yeah. well, look, we're looking at it that it's not a recession when you add 500,000 jobs to the economy. our data shows that hiring is holding in it is still a solid labor market do we think there are mixed signals? i do i think right now there's no
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question that employers are still hiring but we're starting to see less breadth across the hiring and less momentum. so for me what i would tell the fed is i'm starting to see a little rebalancing maybe between supply and demand in the labor market starting to see job seekers looking for jobs with more intensity coming back to the platform we're starting to see also employers. do they really want to add that next job opening or hold back on that so we're seeing still elevated job postings and openings but not as much as before. we're seeing more people more actively searching for jobs. >> i'm curious about that last point because we saw the labor participation rate go down which was if you had to find a negative in this report, karin, that was it. >> absolutely. but what happens with our data is that it's realtime so we're seeing this as the latest, most up-to-date signs of a labor
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market rebalancing overall i'm not expecting that we're going to see labor force participation rates or employment population ratios go back to where they were pre-pandemic but we do see hiring is around the pre-pandemic trend even if it's slowing, employers are still hiring, people are still looking. i think it's going to be a fairly solid labor market for a while. r g you're going to see some quiet rebalancing and eventually we'll see a tougher time towards the end of the year or early next year. >> michelle, so much of this is predicated on what happens with the consumer, which i know you're tracking very closely at mastercard and you have some really interesting data showing just how strong the consumer is, especially in july what can you tell us >> that's exactly right. the consumer was out there spending in july we actually saw an acceleration in the growth rate of our data. it was across a variety of
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categories yes, the consumer is prioritizing experience-based spending we're seeing outsize gains in restaurants and travel that has not let up i think the shift is very much in play. we're also looking at nominal spending part of this is the inflation story, which is certainly elevating these levels so when you dig into the details for some categories, absolutely real spending is starting to contract the consumer is having to make some choices here in terms of how they navigate this inflation tax. but the important thing and i think what we learned today is that the labor market is still ongoing. people still have their job and they still feel as though they can presumably get new jobs with this churn in the labor market the longer that goes on, the more power for the consumer. >> and they're getting higher wages, more than 5% from last year which certainly helps
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spending finally, michelle, i was looking at some of the numbers relative to where they were in 2019 everybody like to compare it to pre-pandemic and they're so much higher jewelry as a category 100% higher than 2019 how much of that is inflation and how much is the fact that the consumers are in just much better shape >> it's interesting that you picked up on the jewelry because that was one i was looking at earlier today. it shows acceleration right after the pandemic that may have been somewhat retail therapy people couldn't spend as much on experiences. so there's so many different fascinating things to look at when you're trying to understand the consumer behavioral shift. but i do think the bottom line is that right now the consumer is still out there spending. again, they're not pleased by some of these price increases. they're trying to balance some of these headwinds that they're seeing in terms of higher interest rates and i do think i agree with
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karin. it's all about this rebalancing in the economy that's going take time and lead to this ultimate moderation but i think the important thing is that it's time. so many market participants were looking for the economy to switch on a dime and that's just not happening. >> absolutely not. >> no, it's a good discussion. it doesn't sound recessionary based on talking to you guys thank you very much. >> thank you. >> appreciate it with the dow going positive, shares of restaurant chain wingstop have been on a tear they're up more than 50% in the last month in its most recent earnings call, the company cited deflationary tailwinds don't hear a lot about that lately we'll talk to the ceo about it and his read on the labor market and the consumer, next you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. s&p down 0.4 of 1% three sectors are positive, energy, financials and materials.
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check out the move in shares of wingstop in the last month, up 92nearly 60% chicken wing prices continue to fall the company citing deflationary tailwinds in its report. joining us for more is michael stickler, wingstop president and ceo. michael, welcome everyone is talking about food inflation. bone-in chicken wings are actually falling in price, down 19%. why is that? >> sara, we're in such a unique spot in the restaurant industry. we saw record inflation last year in 2021 our brand partners took the
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necessary pricing to manage our menu and manage their margins. fast forward to today, we're seeing meaningful deflation. so while the rest of the restaurant industry is navigating inflation and likely going to have to take price against a backdrop where the consumer is navigating this record inflation themselves, we actually at wingstop are in a unique spot where we don't have to take price and we can lean into value and present an opportunity where we can continue to grow our top line sales. 2021 was our 18th consecutive year of positive same-store sales for the brand. >> but the same-store sales were a miss and so were the restaurant margins in this latest quarter, but you reaffirmed guidance, which wall street really liked. why were the margins a miss if you're seeing the deflation and why are you confident that things will pick up here >> the deflation really hit towards the end of the second quarter and the table is set for the back half of this year
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our business was hit with a bit of a perfect storm in 2021 we had some really, really strong same-store sales growth when all the stimulus money was provided to the consumer so we were lapping those numbers in q2. in addition to that we have the consumer navigating gas prices hitting north of $4 a gallon as well as the unnecessary war in ukraine. all these dynamics at play with record inflation hitting the consumer, we had to pivot. we have a proven playbook where we lean into value we saw our sales trends improve throughout the quarter as we launched a bundle to consumers at a compelling price point of $15.99 for 20 boneless wings, four flavors, large fries and two dips a really strong value for the consumer it allowed us to change the trending in the sales in the quarter going against a very favorable commodity backdrop so this deflation that we're going to see in our business
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gets really, really strong and improves as we progress through the back half of this year. >> finally, how do you read the consumer right now in some of the restaurant earnings we have, mcdonald's and chipotle, there was discussion about low-income consumers starting to pull back or trade down is that something you are seeing >> we definitely saw that initially as i mentioned in q2, but the way consumers engage with wingstop is different than other brands our average frequency is three times a quarter or once a month. what we've seen as i referenced during those 18 years of positive same-store sales growth, we've been able to grow through previous cycles. where we see consumers pull back are more often on those heavy qsr visits four to five times a week they'll almost save up for that skindulgent occasion with wingstop we're able to retain those
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occasions, not to mention we're in a unique spot where we have a lot of growth levers to pull as a brand, whether it's expanding our delivery base to additional delivery providers we're launching a chicken sandwich for the first time as a brand. it's not just one chicken sandwich, it's 12, with our 12 unique bold flavors. and we have a meaningful increase in the amount of advertising we're able to spend in the back half of this year. our ad spend increasing 35%. so we have a lot of firepower and it gives us the confidence in our ability to continue to grow sales and deliver on our guidance of low digit same-store sales this year. >> the market is certainly excited about it michael, thank you for joining us still to come, former treasury secretary jack lew on his endorsement of the inflation reduction act which is set to face its first vote in the senate tomorrow. and laird david rosenberg, what the jobs report means for the market and for your money. he's been saying we are in a
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recession. i wonder what he makes of this rytrg ve sonread on the jobs market we'll be right back with the dow down 7
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check out today's stealth mover. monster beverage scaring investors after missing profit estimates due to soaring costs for everything, from ingredients to fuel to warehousing it was a 20 cents a share miss even though the top line was better it comes after pepsi took a stake in celsius with a distribution deal so they have a tougher competitive environment there. the stock is down almost 5%. we've got a bonus stealth mover for you. check out shares of goodyear tire riding high after beating wall street's estimates thanks to higher prices and sales volumes offsetting increases in material costs and supply chain disruptions. pricing working in its favor up 4.5%. up next, former treasury secretary jack lew on how the much stronger than expected july jobs report could impact the
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fed's rate hike strategy the dow is unchanged
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the dow is flirting with positive territory it has been a volatile day for the market on the back of that very hot jobs report this morning. it's amazing to see the
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resilience in stocks given we are seeing bond yields and the dollar shoot higher. the 2-year note yield 3.226 on the back of expectations the fed will have to go bigger at its september meeting and for longer even to fight off inflation. joining us in a "closing bell" exclusive is former treasury secretary jack lew it's good to have you, secretary lew, welcome back. >> good to see you, sara. >> so what do you think this jobs report does to the recession debate >> i think it's a good jobs number i don't think there's any way to read it as a bad number. it means there's a strong economy even with hates being increased pretty dramatically. i don't think we should think it's a sustainable number. we don't have enough people to grow the labor force that much continually month after month. but it means that in the very difficult process of transitioning from the covid economy to a more normal economy, so far the fed has
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managed to raise rates pretty substantially without the underlying economy taking too much of a hit. i think we have to expect -- >> what. >> go ahead. >> just this idea of transitioning to a more normal economy, it's something the white house is saying. it's something we heard from secretary yellen and president biden appeared his press secretary in fact today. i wondering if the market is a little skeptical about transitioning into a more normal economy at a time when the economy is being pounded with interest rate hikes and about to undergo quantitative tightening, how it can function as anything, soft landing or into a normal economy when that's happening? >> i think the markets are getting a little ahead of themselves the fed has said over and over again they are going to watch the data and move with determination on getting inflation down but keeping an eye on the effect on employment. i think what today's job numbers show is that they have some room to continue. we don't know what the inflation numbers will be next week.
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we don't know what the next jobs report will look like. markets want to know today we can't know for a month and two months the fed doesn't act again for a while. there's no question that the economy is transitioning supply chains are getting fixed. you're hearing from industry after industry that it's less of a problem than it was. labor markets are healing. they're very strong actually and to say it's completely normal, we're not completely out of the woods absences are still high because of people getting covid. how many people do we all know who have lost a week of work in the last few weeks so i think it is a transition. markets have no patience for the fact that it has to take a little while and they want to know today what they can't know with certainty for some time but i think so far and today's jobs report underscores it, the underlying economy is remaining strong.
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>> you have endorsed the inflation reduction act which faces its first vote in the senate this weekend, secretary lew. since you came out with four other previous secretaries of the treasury, there have been some changes they altered the 15% minimum corporate tax and added an excise tax on share buybacks are you still supportive >> absolutely. they have made some changes in the legislative process. you do what you need to do to get the 50 votes that you need i think it's important that they have 50 votes because it's important to pass this legislation. you know, the core of the legislation is investing in things that will help reduce the burden on households and high prices it will bring health care costs under more control, it will reduce pharmaceutical costs for
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people on medicare, it will give both individuals and businesses the ability to invest in energy efficiency and alternative energy improvements so that they won't be as dependent on fossil fuels. it will help in the climate efforts but also reduce costs overtime on top of that it reduces the deficit by $300 billion plus over ten years that's an important thing to do. we do need to chip away at the deficit. all in all, it's a strong package and it should be passed. >> on the inflation front, though, even the cbo says that in 2023 it doesn't really reduce or accelerate inflation. it's being billed as an inflation reduction act. most of the studies are showing that there's no real impact on lowering inflation. >> look, i think the impact on inflation will be as much in terms of what is coming on the spending side in terms of the affordable care act credits, in
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terms of the prescription drug price controls, in terms of the energy price impact being absorbed on the margin, i think it will move in the right direction on the macro as well. and certainly over time, $300 billion of deficit reduction is movement in the right direction to reduce inflationary pressures. >> but that doesn't happen until the later part even according to cbo scores, 2027, '28 is when we see real deficit reduction in the bill. >> i think if you would reverse this and say congress was spending $300 billion over the next ten years, people would worry about inflation. so you have to give some credit moving in the right direction. in my time for 25 years working on reduction buiills, it does sw a different way of doing business on both how business is being done but also expectations so i think the scoring over ten
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years is that it is going to lessen inflation i wouldn't overstate the impact tomorrow in the macro economy, but i do think when you're reducing the burdens of inflation on households, that's an anti-inflation effort as well. >> are you surprised that carried interest loophole lives to fight another day every president, so many different politicians have vowed to fight this and get rid of it, and yet another lawmaker stands up for hedge fund and private equity managers' compensation. does that surprise you >> in government and out, i have supported changing the policy here, but every time i tried to accomplish it, i faced resistance as well, so i can't say it's surprising. the fact that it was one, the last vote, maybe means that the day is coming. >> yeah, one holdout, kyrsten
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sinema there getting rid of that carried interest loophole. they were trying to narrow it at least. secretary lew, thank you very much for joining us and weighing in. >> thank you, sara. here's where we stand right now in the markets we climbed a little bit. the dow is up 20 small caps are having a strong showing up 0.6 of 1% the strength is energy and financials, a lot of those in the small cap index. not in technology. the nasdaq is underperforming, down about three-quarters of a percent. check out shares of carvana. they are cruising higher find out why the stock is one of today's big winners, up 40%. do not miss tonight's cnbc special, "inside jobs" focusing on how the very strong employment report will impact wall street, the fednd a your money. that's tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern on cnbc.
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check out the top search tickers. the 10-year yield on top and it's making a move bonds are selling off and yields are higher the 10-year at 2.827 the 2-year is making the bigger move as interest rate expectations rise on the back of that very strong jobs report tesla is down 7% we'll talk more about the shareholder meeting ahead. irobot is the winner after amazon makes a deal to buy it. and then crude oil which just turned negative. it's had a big down week losing 10.5% overall on the week. up next, david rosenberg on whether the strong july jobs report is bad news for the bulls. that story, plus a big day for
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power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli is here as always to break down these crucial moments of the trading day plus david rosenberg is here on the market and the economy and steve kovach as well we'll kick it off with the broader market, mike the dow is building on some gains in the final hour of trade, it's higher the s&p 500 has four positive sectors. it had two when we started the
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hour surprised to see the strength given we are seeing a spike in yields and the u.s. dollar and fed expectations of a bigger rate hike and maybe not a faster pause? >> a moderate surprise, i would say, sara. one thing about the move in yields and the dollar is, yes, they're rebuilding back toward their highs but not at highs so maybe there's a little play in terms of the way equities react to that. also on some level for most companies, good news and a sturdy demand picture reflected in a strong jobs market is not a terrible thing i think the idea that there is a little more breathing room in terms of what the economy can handle in terms of potential fed rate hikes is probably at work here too again, we're sort of just treading water this week in a big picture way. it's resilient but not necessarily something that seems as if it's an excuse for the market most of the pressure is coming from the big growth stocks that have been pretty strong in this
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resurgence in the last six weeks. >> some of the biggest losers today, tesla, amazon, microsoft, nvidia, apple and alphabet let's big deeper right now david rosenberg joins us you've been in the recession camp firmly and early. so how do you make sense of what we saw today, very strong job growth, lower unemployment rate, higher wages >> well, look, the lower unemployment rate, that comes from the household survey and is a product of the fact that the participation rate went down to the lowest rate of the year and trouble rectifying the comment that we have a vibrant labor market when the participation rate is only moving down now, you're quite right, the payroll survey was a shocker but from my perspective and looking at it through the lens of an equity market investor, and not really talking about what's happening today but bigger picture, i mean let's think about it when you're taking a look at
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today's employment numbers, sara, and you look at the hours worked and the employees, the labor input to the economy is running at a 1.5% annual rate at a time when we know all the components of gdp, which is demand in the economy, output and spending is flat which is telling you that for the third quarter in a row, productivity is at risk of being negative see kwents sequentiall. you'd rather have the labor market alongside an acceleration in demand. we know what output is doing, lagging well behind. the other two only times where productivity declined three quarters in a row and we're talking about the impact on the fed, but productivity is so important for profit margins and
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you've only had three quarters in a row of sequential productivity prints twice, in 1974 and 1979. >> okay. >> so this wonky number, we've seen what's happening on the spending and output side of the economy and that's a bit of a problem. >> i expected you to put a negative spin on it, david my question is what ultimately it's going to mean for the market, which had gotten really excited lately about the federal reserve's no more hikes after this year and cuts starting next year it feels like there's a whole rethink of that if labor demand is still very strong, even with weak gdp and inflation numbers also stay pretty hot >> well, firstly, what you call spin, i call analysis. but we have the fed is chasing -- this particular fed is making its policy chasing lagging and contemporaneous
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indicators so you just want to talk about n non-farm payrolls. okay that is one of the constituents of the conference board's coincident economic indicator. it is basically looking at the trees when you want to look at the forest past the trees. initial jobless claims, which we haven't talked about so far, that's in the index of leading economic indicators. and i think the recession call is pretty well baked in the cake initial jobless claims is in the leading economic indicator, not non-farm payrolls. jobless claims, the four-week moving average is up 84,000 from the low. up 84,000, going back to when the data started in 1967 up 84,000 and initial jobless claims has been a recession call 100% of the call so do you think i'm going to abandon my recession call because of today's non-farm
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payroll report it's not the first time it rose into the early part of recession. so what i'm doing is forecasting the future. >> i get it, but what does it mean for stocks, though? is recession a positive for stocks because it means the fed will slow down >> well, if the fed were to pause or even cut rates, of course you get an initial rally. it would be a tradeable rally. but the one thing we know about two fundamental bonds in the stock market is they happen when the yield curve is positively sloped there's never been a bottom with the yield curve inverted usually the bottom in the stock market is when the market is looking in the whites of the eyes of the recovery we're now looking in the whites of the eyes of the recession so the bottom will be next year's story you go back to 2000, 2002, you go back in the 2007 to 2009 bear market, there were eight peaks and valleys along the way. there were eight very significant bear market rallies and you can trade them but the fundamental of those
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happened late in the recession they happened after the fed significantly cut interest rates and steepened the yield kcurve. you can get tradeable in stocks. unless you're going to say this is the first time something is going to happen, you know, in our professional lives so that's the problem right now. it is still a bear market rally, a very significant one we had a few powerful ones in the great financial crisis yeah, you can trade them and they can last a few months too, by the way but no, it's not a fundamental low. i think that will be next year's story. >> david rosenberg, thank you very much. good to have you >> have a great weekend. >> you too a pair of gig economy stocks are moving on earnings today lyft reporting an unexpected quarterly profit and doordash beating wall street's sales forecast due to an increase in monthly active users and also higher restaurant menu prices. it was initially higher but has
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since come down. steve, what are we learning about the consumer and demand from liyft and doordash i was surprised to see such strong numbers from doordash as everyone is going out again. >> both these companies point a picture of a reopening economy uber saying we expect demand to continue to surge and especially surge once we get into the back-to-school season so there is no sign of these letting down from the travel side we heard from airbnb earlier this week that they are also seeing demand just not letting up at all despite these covid spikes and we're going to -- in fact they're so confident about that, they were able to issue a $2 billion share buyback. on the doordash side it's a little different growth moderated a bit and it's more normal growth than the super growth that we saw during the pandemic about 23% growth in doordash orders versus a year ago when we
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saw 60 something percent growth. so it is flattening a little bit. people are going to restaurants instead of having the restaurants come to them a bit more. >> but still growing. >> and part of that is because of the international expansion they closed this acquisition of a company called volt, which is the doordash of europe, and are going to start expanding globally from there. so there's plenty of room for them to grow. >> what about the stock, mike? it's been clobbered along with so many of the other pandemic winners and other stocks, right? >> exactly there has been waves of selling. you see since the first quarter of 2021, they have moved largely in tune with one another this big hypergrowth premium came out and you can say a couple of different things these companies have absolutely established themselves in the consumer habits. they're not going away in thames of people's usage of them but they do still have business
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models that are unproven that's the case even if you go to uber and lyft they're not showing that they're going to be reaping consistent and growing cash flows that's why the market is having this little minor echo boom in the stocks, having some recoveries there by the way, a lot of beaten-up hypergrowth stocks are having a little bit of a muted revival. so it's still a show me and a prove it to me situation. >> steve, while you're here, we've got to ask you about the amazon deal to buy irobot. $1.7 billion in cash irobot stock surging on that news sort of a pandemic darling but 23 facing a lot of headwinds. what does amazon want with it? >> amazon has been building out this network of alexa devices and ecosystem of alenxa devices this all ties into this idea
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that we're going to have everything in our home be smart. keep insp mind amazon bought th wi-fi router maker and ring, the maker of those video doorbells and security cameras ring even has a drone that will fly around your house and monitor security that way. so some really crazy pie in the sky ideas. also robotics. a decade ago, they bought a robotics company to work in their warehouses and move product around the floor it's really neat to watch how robots and humans work together. on the consumer side they introduced a $1500 robot that can even bring you a beer from the fridge, sara. >> that's convenient more data for amazon to have inside your personal space lovely thank you very much, steve
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kovach. tesla is under pressure following its shareholder meeting. meantime, shares of carvana skyrocketing the online used car dealer announcing it is aggressively cutting costs. phil lebeau joins us tesla stock has been losing steam all day. why do you think that is >> well, i think part of this is because it has come so far so quickly over the last couple of months take a look at tesla shares over the last three months and look at where it was back in may. i think it was in the 620 range and went up over 900 that's a 47% gain. it's only natural you'll see some profit taking coming in here this is not tied into the comments from elon musk at the annual meeting overall if you listened to that meeting and watched what he had to say, he was fairly upbeat about tesla's future so this is not a case where there's actual news moving the stock lower, i think this is a
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case of look how far it's come, let's take some money here. >> you've also got twitter up 4%, so there could be an inverse trade as it looks likely that he'll have to buy it. >> elon musk's legal camp did file its response to some of the twitter documents as well and it didn't seem to impress a lot of the legal authorities i've seen. so there has been the relationship there where some pressure on tesla when it seems like the twitter acquisition might be more likely -- elon musk might be forced to buy. the stock ramps into the stock split announcement you got the rubber stamp on the split at the annual meeting. even though that's a nonfundamental effect -- >> phil, how about that huge pop in carvana shares. this stock was left for dead what happened? >> well, they have announced they're going to be cutting costs dramatically, and they
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need to cut costs dramatically if you look at all of the analysts' commentary about the q2 results and the moves they are planning to make to get back to profitability, almost everybody says the same thing. amen, this is what they need to do what you're looking at here is a stock that was so beaten down. look at the stock this year, it's down 70, 80%, even more it was due for a pop on any type of news where the company said we will make the cuts necessary so that we can cut the losses. >> got it. phil, thank you. a bit of a short squeeze there too likely phil lebeau. mike, the other market tidbit i would add in which is fairly bullish, it was a big week for the credit market and for supply you had apple kicking it off, intel doing a deal, meta doing a debut deal and those are all on the higher end of investment credit. >> yes
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high quality. >> high quality. but you had investment grade inflows for the first time after 18 straight weeks of outflows. if you're looking for a signal for the credit card, it's not too recessionary looking. >> not at all. absolutely true. a lot of that capital raised by the big tech companies in the credit markets is going to go to share buybacks in general it reliquefies the system >> two minutes to go what do you see in the internals? >> they have been actually a little better than you might expect, certainly better than this morning the stock split is 2-1 the average stock is doing okay, it's the mega caps weighing on the s&p and even that not very much we're going to finish well above 4100 on the s&p. look at jpmorgan relative to microsoft. it shows you this rotation over the course of the week with that jobs number. you have jpmorgan and the other
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banks popping to meet that strength in microsoft as we saw microsoft and the big growth stalwarts flat line after that 21 has been one of the lower levels of the volatility index we're actually breaching that. you see that steady decline kind of summer, relatively range bound trading. it's bullish until it gets to a real negative extreme, well below 20, and then you'll have people talking about complacency. i don't think we're there yet. >> let's look into the movers as we head into the close we got as low as 237 on the dow. we're now at session highs in this final minute of trading jpmorgan, chevron, verizon and visa are driving it higher boeing and salesforce are the losers s&p 500 well off the lows. it was down more than 1%, it's down less than 0.2 energy, financials, materials,
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industrials lead nasdaq is the loser, down half a percent but climbing well off the lows of the session. higher by about 2% on the week despite the fact that we have a much stronger than expected jobs report we'll see where it settles next week that's it for me on "closing bell." have a great weekend, everyone into "overtime" now with scott wapner. >> all right, sara, thank you very much. welcome to "overtime." i'm scott wapner on this friday. you just heard the bells we are just getting started right here at post 9 in just a little bit i'll speak to eric johnston on whether it is time to throw in the towel on his call for a collapse in stocks we begin with our talk of the tape, whether a soft landing really is possible and if so if it's investors who should pivot to a more positive view on the markets in the months ahead. let's ask courtney garcia, senior wealth advisor and cnbc contributor right here with me at

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