defense because of the systematic trend following. some of that has been dealt with with the buying, but not all of it. >> i feel like you are getting a chase now. >> some of the lower quality stocks flying, it is rising. >> there is the last word. that does it for us, "fast money" is now. on "fast money," the third straight week of gains from me s&p 500 , the first time since march but the good times may not last much longer. we look at details to find out what we should expect. passing income shares of draftkings soaring after the earnings report, should you take your money and run mike max for earnings season may be winding down by disney and more still on the calendar, we will

find out what names the traders are watching and what the reports could mean for the stocks. this is "fast money." we have guy, tim, steve, and mike. let's start off with the employment report, the labor market adding 520,000 jobs in july, more than doubling estimates, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% not seen since before the pandemic. is the good news really good news? markets closed well off of their lows but were flat. the big cpi report next week on wednesday. as we put earnings season behind us, kind of, how do we expect markets to trade around these numbers? guy, we were trying to find out this number yesterday, whether it was wrong or not, it was very strong but i'm not sure we know what it means. what do you think?

>> if you told me last night that the job numbers would come out north of half 1 million, what will be s&p 500 do ? i would say down 50 handles if not more but that did not happen. i would have said that because this makes the job of the fed more difficult and anybody thought that they would pause would have to take a little bit back, take a step that given the jobs number. it did not happen today. i think it is great for our fellow citizens but i do not think it is good for the stock market. >> tim, does the fed go three quarters of a percent, what does this mean, more than a half 1 million jobs? >> handicapping the fed has been an absurd site even though relatively predictable. fed funds futures, july 28th, down to 360 on march 23rd with expectation, back up to 365, we

have had a massive move and a lot of backend today, half of that move. the market is effectively, since the fed rhetoric that began after the powell, you call it dovish, i call it hawkish, we got more hawkish fed comments. what does it mean for the market? i think good news is good news and ratification, much like second quarter earnings were backward looking. they are pretty much in sync. we did not hear anybody talking about the consumer being dead or rolling over, even on guidance, that was not the issue. i think it is relatively good news. the vix was down, when you have introduced more fed coming that is good semiconductors, which i like, rallying 28%, they were down very small today. the challenge is to see rates continue to push higher. a few of us may be in that

camp. >> how do we make sense of all of this when you have this very strong labor market. we have the inflation number we will did next week. i cannot believe it will fall much lower than where we have been. there are not indication that the tools by the fed have pushed the number to go lower, at least not yet. >> i think the key is, you do not know how much lower or how much lower it will go from where it was. that is the key. we have to get to peek inflation, if we can do that, you can get to peek powell. everyone talks about powell taking a pause, it does not matter, you have a month, everyone knew the jobs market was excellent, it is backward looking, we are looking at where is inflation right now? if you can make the case that

inflation has peaked, you can make the case that it has to pause. the problem is, the job of powell is to crush demand. that jobs number is not crushing demand. he has to go further than the market would like him to go. this is not about whether we are in a recession or not, this is about, will be fed create a recession down the road? this print makes it more likely. on wednesday, you will get the most important cpi we have ever seen. if that comes out to show even a lowering of inflation, i think you have the makings of a little bit more of a rally. and then i think the market will turn south and we will start to see lower numbers, below 4000 in the s&p 500. >> you brought up the recession word, in the control room, i would love to play the soundbite from janie diamond today in boston talking about

what he thinks about the state of a recession or not. >> right now the american economy is strong and the recession, the technical term of a recession, shrinking gdp, i do not know if i can believe the numbers because they are distorted coming out of covid and supply chain, employment is going up i have never seen a recession where employment was getting stronger and not weaker. wages are going up. people have more money and are spending more money, more money than they had before covid . they are spending 10% more than last year. that does not sound like a recession currently. >> mike, jamie dimon sounds optimistic , how do you make sense of the data, do you agree with his opinion, and how do you make money? how do you put it together to make smart decisions going into next week? >> people spending can be going up but that does not necessarily mean all is well.

if you have an inflationary environment which we have had, people will be spending more but getting less which is not a very healthy recipe. that being said, when i saw the jobs number, i cannot help but think it is a positive. imagine we got jobs numbers that were miserable and missed the quarter million estimate that everybody was looking for. and next week we got even worse inflation numbers than any we have seen so far. i do not think that will happen. if that had happened, the fed would be painted into a corner. as far as i am concerned, seeing strong jobs numbers and an employment at 3.5%, even if participation is a bit low, a better place for the fed to negotiate from. when they are negotiating, they are driving down the highway using only the rearview mirror. that is all they have, that and the rest of us riding in the back of the car screaming every now and again at what they are doing. that is where we are. the jobs number today was ultimately a positive. and markets typically climb.

we have a little bit, implied six month correlation, 50% in the options market, that is worrying posture. the vix is lower but still relatively elevated which is not essentially signaling the all clear. if there is any chance that we were going to navigate our way out of this mess we find ourselves in without having a complete mess on our hands, this jobs number was one of the things we needed to get there. >> tim, vix has fallen over the last month but around 21 and i'm pulling back to what jamie dimon said about consumer spending 10% more money, xrt up 5% compared to the nasdaq and the dow slightly negative. that suggests that investors are not worried about consumer spending so much but not quite yet, what do you think, tim? >> i am recapping retail

earnings and you are the guru, and mike is the vix guru. i think that the vix is too low considering the risk. i am surprised we are assigned when as we are. it seemed like we were getting less fed. vix should be higher. what we heard from the biggest retailers in the world, there was a shift in the product mixed, under pressure, but we were not hearing that the consumer was dead. we were hearing that the margins were under pressure with bad inventory issues that are things we will navigate through. if anything, we have pushed them around and walmart, target, other big front-line stores, very hard, and i do not think the inventory issue is something that is systemic, i think it is a one off. >> we will learn more when the full earnings report come out,

retailers are also at the end of the season. even with the pullback today, the s&p 500 up 14% from the june low . where it will go? carter worth joins us to walk through the levels. take it away. >> reporter: where is it going to go from here? it is fair to say we are all guessing a lot of the time. before we look at the charts, it was a mixed bag. the five sectors down, six sectors up, s&p 500 down , dow, transports, utilities, down, nasdaq is up . let's look at charts and try to figure out. these are fairly short-term. the circle is what is known as overhead supply or congestion that is essentially eight to 10 days of training from friday, may 27 to june 8th. we plunge and we have returned to it. we are contending with that

supply. if you look at the next chart, d-line depicts exactly where we are in relation to that 8 to 10 days of trading, dewey exceeded orbach awake? same truck now with more on the line. there is a lot of symmetry. we are at a level where moving higher would be a breakout above that, and faltering would also have major implications. let's pull this back and include a trendline. if we were to break out, in the next chart, you see where a measure of where we can get to. that is 4300. let's do the lines a different way and look at the next chart. i have taken the trendline away, is this not the same set up as we saw before in the january and march period? what happened then? we got to the former high and

we faltered. ultimately, we will give back a lot of this ricochet, if not all of it. it is impressive, apple up 25%, 26%, s&p 500 up 14% but it is too far, too fast. >> guided, carter, i like it. we will see you in a couple of minutes for options action. i want to say this, steve grasso , what do you make of this, hard to argue against the charts, will we have a hard time holding onto the gains were building? >> i do, we will have a hard time the next couple of months, guy and i are in the camp, we will see about 4200. the red today in the jobs numbers probably should have been more negative for the market but it was not. cpi will be positive, if that is the case, we can 50 number carter just talked about, 4300

before we turn back around with a wishy-washy month. after the midterm elections, or thereabouts, we should probably rally into year-end, but it will be tough going on the way. >> guy, where are we going for the rest of august? >> i agree with stephen carter, maybe another 50 points in the s&p 500 and most of the move has been predictable since the middle of june. now you pick it up, like picking up quarters in the middle of the freeway. it is great that the job numbers was great, i am surprised how the market interpreted it it, i think it makes the job of the fed more difficult and anybody thinks this fed is pivoting, look at the numbers and i would suggest they cannot. i have no idea what cpi will be but i know that inflation does

not come down on a dime, it takes a long time. more fed equals more volatility and we have seen the up move in the market and the next significant move is lower. >> fair enough. i would have liked to see the reaction of mr. powell today when the numbers cannot. coming up, disney outlook earnings next week, will the report be the magic touch for the magic kingdom? and options action, not all chip stocks have been in rallying mode, a trader says it may be time to look at intel. more "fast money" after this e next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.

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welcome back. another big week of earnings on deck with disney, softbank, coinbase , and so much more set to report the latest results. our traders are watching some of the key reports. which name are you watching? >> it is a great list, disney sticks out, for the first time in a long time you can purchase disney, pretty much at a market multiple, slightly higher. 19 times the numbers next year, they will probably have close to 25% or so eps growth. it is not about disney+ but the

sum of the parts. the average price target on the street is $137. >> tim, your take on disney? >> disney has weathered a bunch of hits on the other players and i think you have reset expectations. disney reaffirms 240 to 250 subs on disney+. i think the numbers are fine and the reopening trade which we are things good, the evaluation might have been a little bit cheaper. i love evaluation. find your support at $95 to $100. it is on the upside. >> what are you watching this next week, mike? >> the options market applying a move of 30%, this thing got

slayed after the reported in may, we had a lot of institutional sales coming from ford in their recently reported quarter, they have been reduced to 75 million shares. it has bounced more than 70% off of the low. the problem is they are a niche player and they will be occupying a space that i think general motors and ford will come in on it as a shareholder of ford, i still own a little bit of rivian, they will have to say exciting things to get the stock a lot higher after the big rally. >> what are you thinking about with rivian? >> it has had a huge bounce off of the may low and have july 27th, cutting 6% of the workforce. that does not bode particularly well for me. you are talking about a car

company effectively trading at close to six times revenue which i still think is expensive despite the fact that the stock has been effectively crushed over the last year. if you have enjoyed the bounce off of the may lows, take your money and run into earnings next week. >> what are you tim?watching, >> this is the company that i most of the entire world down, a company at this point with a very different business, a very conservative business, a good thing for all of us, but the property and casualty business is growing, valuation of 4.5 is ridiculously cheap. if you think about where the stock has come from, it has pulled back nicely and the setup into earnings is decent. you will not get much in terms of revenue growth expectations on the street, 1% up with ups down small. steady as she goes, this is one to own in this environment.

>> steve? >> capri holdings, it is trading about $50. this is the strength of the luxury brands, we will see that this coming week. they are about a debt reduction story, they have a buyback in place. they also source in euros and sell in dollars. that is the right side of the fx trade. you will be surprised, the stock is down 25% because it was thrown into, if we are going to have a recession the luxury will not do well. history has shown us the opposite of that. michael kors is not discounting as much as they normally would, versace is doing well and i'm looking for good things from capri next week. >> they took the time to right size operations. thank you all. coming up, place your bets,

draftkings with the best week since 2020 , stay tuned. and we will have a special at the top of the hour, "inside jobs." we dive into the jobs reports and what the number says about the state of the economy ♪ ♪ the thing that's different about a vrbo vacation home. you always have the whole place to yourself. no stranger at the dinner table making things awkward. or in another room taking up space. it's just you and your people. because why would you ever share your vacation home with someone you wouldn't share your vacation with. ♪ ♪

another busy day? with someone you wouldn't shar of course it is.ith. you're a cio in 2022. but you're covered. with security that protects your company everywhere, on-premise... in the cloud... and right here too. comcast business. powering possibilities. welcome back. draftkings soaring 31% this week, almost 10% today, they lifted the full-year guidance

after reporting a second quarter revenue this morning, what waiter should investors make on draftkings now especially after this run? what do you think, tim? >> this was not just about cost savings but the variance from where the street was on revenue and the beat by about 6% was better online sports betting revenue. we heard from caesars and we got a sense that the competitive and overly mercenary environment for advertising and spend, and marketing, was something that was maybe finding rationalization. this is a member of the all squeezed in and up 100% on new melle 12 intraday low. this trades at about seven times revenue. it is interesting because, what is cheap and what is not in the space? i do not know. this is an addressable market growth story and the revenue to sales numbers are expensive but

it has gotten better. >> mike, should you place your bets here, caesars , mgm, or even bitcoin? >> if i was going to go for the gaming names, i would go for an older one as the numbers there are more compelling. as he was just pointing out this is the circumstance, 9% short interest is not off the charts. that can create a squeeze situation with a slightly better than expected number. that can come back up once the situation is corrected and you can see it going lower. >> already time for the final trade. tim? >> i am fired up for disney, we priced and bad news in terms of the dtc business, i like to risk and reward. >> steve? >> same theme, what i'm

watching next week, capri holdings, goodbye. >> mike? >> rivian reporting next week but i would rather own ford. >> rally in gold, gdx catches up next week. >> that does it for us on "fast money." "options action" is next

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it is friday and that means it is time for "options action." here is what is coming up. >> tonight, disney stock, down around 30% year to date, next earnings results could be pivotal for the company. carter worth place jack sparrow and chart the course. and tony keeps clear of all volatility and those bottom fishing instead. after a drop, he likes chips, find out which sector he is favoring