in a prison cell in south dakota. he is scheduled to be released in august 2020. >> he just became a really master thief. but master thieves do get caught... but master thieves do get caught... and he did. it's friday, and that means it's time for "options action. here's what's coming up. >> tonight, disney stock down around 30%year-to-date. next earning results could be pivotal for the company. carter worth plays jack sparrow. then tony zhang keeps clear of all volatility and goes bottom fishing instead. after a dip, he likes chips. find out which giant in the sector he's favoring now

finally, a follow on to our previous gold miners trade mike focuses on a possible fed pivot. "options action" starts now. let's get right to it. disney has had a rough start to the year, down about 30% and next earnings report could be pivotal carter worth is here to chart this ride. carter, what have you seen >> well, it's an unmitigated disaster it's a mess. and sometimes there's opportunity when it's all gone sort of kaplewy. here you'll see on the screen these are the worst-performing stocks and i've mislabeled that that is on a 12-month trailing, not year-to-date and you see disney bringing up

the rear at down 40% now let's look at a chart or two and try to figure out what we have so here is a comparative chart two line, very straightforward s&p versus disney five-year basis. disney is essentially hunch. now the question for disney itself look at the drawings on this next chart you can call it whatever you want, but it has the elements of a bearish to bullish reversal. a head and shoulders bottom, doesn't matter what you call it, but the sequencing would suggest that something is afoot. look at the next way to draw the line same chart, same time frame. we've moved above it put those two together, the preceding two charts, and what we have is a stock that one, has moved above a down trend line and has the elements of reversing. finally, there's this.

look at this relative performance chart. this is simply disney relative to its sector. and what you'll see is disney relative to xli, final chart and every time we've come down, and we're in free fall here, absolute and relative to this downward-sloping trend line we bounce hence the arrow's drawn. and this is an instance of so bad's good, play it for a balance. >> what's the trade, then? >> it's interesting. disney, just for a frame of reference, their peak earning, 2018 so many of the businesses were impacted b impacted by the pandemic but we starting to see some areas of life in the parks areas. they have the cruise people are focussing on

streaming and are trying to have their sort of on-demand service, but the biggest asset is espn. this is much like news that you're seeing right now, it's must-see television right now. that's about a third of their ebita. i think that this is a company that may not get back to 2018 numbers but doesn't need to be reasonably valued. if we get back to six bucks like i think we probably will in 2024 i'm looking at selling the put spread, which is the august 105-100 put spread, which is just slightly out of money you've collected a little over $1.60 for that even if the stock essentially trades sideways or fell a small amount you're probably okay here and of course you get to collect

all of that premium if the stock does rise and your maximum risk is $3.40 per share, that's if it fell all the way below that $100 strike price i think that's less likely >> tony zhang, what are your thoughts?? i think there's a holot of optimism also hilton and marriott which reported earlier this week travel seems to be coming back at quite a strong pace and that's good for the theme parks and the streaming business the earnings could be the catalyst that we see break above that level mike's using a strategy i use quite often. two out of possible snaer yoes,

t would be profitable. you have negative risk-to-reward ratio. i happen to be in the camp that i think disney could move meaningfully higher on earnings. i would take advantage of the upside, but i think my preference is based more so on a different outlook than mike, not necessarily because i don't like his trade. >> mike, i'm going to give you the final word and the reaction there. >> i think the real issue is whether or not you think the market might be reaching some area of potential resistance doi i do feel that way. we have inflation numbers to worry about. i have a feeling we're at a different level. but both have their benefits >> okay. good explanation let's switch gears tony zhang likes to consume chips after the dip. >> the reason is similar to what

carter is taking away disney this is a stock that has very dismal chart the $35 that we've now reached down to, this was the level that the stock stuck below 35, for about 16 years after the dot com bubble and it only broke out from there in 2017, all the weay to peakin at about 68.5 bucks. evening quarter of analysts that koofr cover intel have a buy rating. and most don't expect any type of meaningful revenue or growth until 2024 right now the sentiment on the treat is fairly overly bearish, and i think that kind of sentiment leads me to be a little bit more after

contraryian. so the trade structure i want to use is taking into account the fact that i'm looking for long-term opportunity here for intel. i'm going out to the september 9 weekly you january 2023 diagonal spread and i'm collecting about 44 corre cents with the strike miss around 38 bucks. i'm gaining upside exposure through january of 2023, and by sell selling a diagonal spread i reduce the cost of buying these longer-dated calls >> okay. me mike, what's your thoughts on tony's strategy for intel. >> i would point people to earnings we just saw for uber.

when the street is so pessimistic about something, what can happen when you have decent numbers it's interesting the real problem for intel and the reason we've been seeing steep declines and huge underperformance relative to amd, management was focussing more on marketing than engineering, and of course that takes time to correct that problem. >> carter, what's your take? do you see anything in the charts for intel >> as he articulated very similar to disney, this is a prototypical so bad it's good. if you look at intel's relative performance to the stock, intel is making all-time record relative lows. that is the very definition of so bad it's good

>> tony, this is your trade, i'm going to give you the final word >> i appreciate carter's, that's very similar to disney and to mike's comment about using a vertical we just had earnings, so for me it's better to take a longer-dated call diagonal >> there is more "options action" after this take a look. still to come. if the fed pivots more toward recession than inflation, professor khouw is going long gold find out which particular name has him shouting "mine"! plus, calling all "options action" fans action" fans tweehirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. if it's nice, we'll read it on air. mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard

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welcome back to "options action." back at the very beginning of july we took a look at the junior gold miners >> these are the junior miner, the most destroyed they have been like a pinball machine. they have been working within this channel almost perfectly. and what i'm thinking here is that we're going to move to the upside, whether it's m&a or whether it's just again because this is a better time to be in gold than a lot of things. >> i was looking out to

september at the 30, 34, 39 call spread risk reversal >> since a lot of volatility, that is pretty much backwards since july give us the summary. >> sure, so actually the small miners are handling outperforming the larger brethren, but we're going to look at the bigger ones today, gdx. the first chart is the gd kmchlt versus the gdxj. and what my eye sees is the beginning of a reversal the. it's nascent it's only 7 to 15 sessions in the making another way to make the lines is put in the trend line. the question is, is this enough to make a call whereas the gdx has already done that, we think

it is. so the play here is to look at something that's lagged. look at barrick gold it's about a 10% weight in the gdx, and the thinking is that this is up and up. this is an all-data monthly chart, essentially, barrick is unchanged from where it was 1990, which, of course, is pretty shocking. independent of that, let's put some lines on, final chart, we have dipped down to a trend line that's been in effect since 2012 we think you get a bounce here just as you've seen the previous two times. >> all right, well, mike, before we get to your barrick gold trade, give us some thoughts of yours on the junior miners here. >> so obviously, i had that junior miner position on we kind of actually pushed on that

because basically we really needed it to rally sharply higher than when we initiated the trade and we ended up, you know, with a small profit on that one as it happens, we happen to hold barrick gold in our fund on the long side. the equity and so i'm alongside carter here, because we're long gold, and we're long that particular company. this of course is not one of the junior miners. this is a $28 billion company. what was interesting to me as i was taking a look at this today was that there was a pretty favorable risk-reward relationship to be had by simply buying in the money september 15, 18 call spread at the time i was, this was about 50 cents in money, looks like it closed 60 cents in the money by the end of the day, and that was only going to cost me about 85 cents to 90 cents per share to put that on that's up a very fair us

risk-reward relationship on the long side. it basically pays two to one and you're risking less than a dollar per share on the down side between now and september expiration now we having a conversation earlier about rates, about the fed and about inflation. now i think sort of one of the headline inflationary numbers that a lot of people look at, most people kind of see it every day as they're driving past gas stations is the cost of energy we do have bad inflation numbers of the inflation numbers we get next week will look bad but energy costs have been coming down if other inflation numbers are going up, but the price of gold goes up but energy prices are going down, that's good news for the miners, because energy is one of their input costs if you have your costs going down but end product going up, that's a good place to be. >> okay, i'm following so far it's been the mike and carter show, tony, we want to get your thoughts. what are you thinking?

>> we seem to have a theme here today the. i promise we didn't discuss this, but we all are looking for stocks down one thing that's really important on carter's charts, we pulled back to a pretty important elf will. t level e the. what we're seeing, these are classic signs of down side exhaustion we salw lower lows and we didn't see implied volatility confirm those lows. i actually took a long position here in gold a couple weeks ago, and i happen to agree that there's further upside, further move here to the upside and gdx

or any of these goldminers is a leveraged play on gold, and i really liking mine mike's setup. it's about 2% higher than where the stock is today p a and he has a more than two-to-one risk reward ratio if we get a nice bounce in gold and barrick reaches $18, he's going to get about two and a half times that he's paying. love the trade in gold and love the trade setup that he's using. >> all right, carter give us your final take on the gold trade. >> one thing that is stunning, basically, the gold mining business is a tough one, right you're digging and hunting and pecking and very hard way to make a living.

there are moments when gold and gold miners are the single best thing one can do and having some here, whether it's the bouillon or the stock h like this, i think it's something that needs to be owned. >> okay. well, coming up next, we answering your tweets. don't go away. your question could be next. flowers are fighters. that's why the alzheimer's association walk to end alzheimer's is full of them.

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because platforms this innovative aren't just made for traders -they're made by them. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade welcome back to "options action." our first note says i've owned united health shares for close to ten years and love the stock. carter, this one's for you >> let's start with the fact that that's pure genius. what do we know about the last ten years? united health care is up fourfold, it has beaten microsoft on a ten-year basis. it has beaten apple and google you are on to a good thing and have the patience to stick with it the stock has just returned to its april high and the

resu presumption is that it will break out above that high. but you have a large operating business that looks like it's got more to go >> tony, what's your technical take on united health? >> yeah, i completely concur with carter here, because not only did we return back to those april highs. if you look at the relative performance of united health to the health care sector, it's already broken out past those april highs. it is an opportunity to add more before the breakout. we're expecting about 14% eps growth over the nest cxt coupler and trading about 21 times next year's earnings is a very reasonable valuation for a name h like united health i think it's a good time to consider adding right before this breakout. >> our next viewer asks, quote, with the huntington ingles

moving higher, what would you take advantage of for the movement >> this has been up a whole hot this year, actually, not a lot of stocks we can point to up more than 20%. those things are all good. that said, it appears to me, and this is probably going to and question that should be directed at tony or carter who have a more technical bent than i do. it does seem like it might be reach ago reaching a difficult level you have an opportunity to substitute your options with earnings but i'll defer to them on the technical. >> okay. tony, do you want to get in on thatall?

>> the one thing you should pay attention to is not just the absolute price but relative price. it has already broken out. and i think that is a good sign for this particular stock going forward. >> okay. well, up next, the final call, and be sure to stay tuned at the top of the hour for a cnbc special "inside jobs." we dive into every angle of the morning's employment report. "options action" will be back in two.

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diagonal >> disney is cheaper than it was in 2019. i like them in earnings. that does it for us here at "options action. but don't go anywhere. >> this is a paid advertisement for csn. >> you know, the one thing you can count on in numismatics, which is the hobby of collecting coins, is that the pace of change, or change, is glacial. [ chuckling ] okay? we would hope from the -- oftentimes, as numismatists in a hobby and in a profession, we hope for a snail's pace from the united states mint. nothing is done quickly. nothing is done without forethought.