retail names that could see a short squeeze as the mean traders return, that is coming up on plu"power lunch," which begins right now welcome everybody to "power lunch. glad you could join us i'm tyler mathisen, kelly will be right back with us in a sec here's what's ahead, a double dose of power players. we've got the ceo of valley bank, the stock up 12% over the past month, outperforming the bigger banks we're going to talk lending, the consumer, and why rates, bond rates, are funneling even as the fed hikes their interest rate. plus the vivid seats ceo, the company reporting a rise in revenue and upping its guidance. we'll get his take on discretionary spending in the face of this slowing economy kelly. >> yeah, we're excited to hear more about the consumer, which is showing signs of life in areas, tyler stocks, though, are mostly lower and the nasdaq is the biggest lag

laggard as we hover off session lows the chip names in particular weighing here. the s&p down half a percent. multiday losing streak, about four days it's trying to avoid now and the dow is down 39 let's look at some of those chip players like micron, which today is off 5% after issuing a revenue warning of its own just a day after nvidia's yesterday the smh etf saw 4 .5% today. norwegian cruise line is the worst performing stock in the s&p. they'll continue to be unprofitable in the third quarter and return to 2019 occupancy levels they say is still a year away. the shares are down 11%. it's tdragging down carnival and royal caribbean as well as you can imagine. there's the pressure on carnival and rcl, tyler, down 5.5%. >> kell, if you think the moves in the semis and the cruise lines are dramatic, take a look at some of the meme stock shares of pandemic darlings like amc, bed, bath and beyond, gamestop,

they are down a little bit today and not insignificantly as you can see right there, but over the past week bed, bath, and beyond is up more than 60% amc up over 30%. if meme mania is back, what does it tell us about the state of the overall market let's bring in ed yardeni, ed, good to see you, sir the return of the memes suggests to me the mania of crowds and little more. >> yeah, i think it's a phenomenon that clearly is associated with social media it's easy to get a flash mob or a flash crowd together with social media and this is kind of the analogy that i see between what occasionally happens on social media and what we're seeing happening in the stock market i think there's a lot of speculators that feel like they can get together using social media and move a stock one way or the other, having nothing at all to do with the fundamentals. so it is a mania.

>> yeah, i was going to say, is there any connection to the fundamentals of the stocks we mentioned there, amc, bed, bath, and beyond and others. that's number one. and number two, i wonder why the meme -- i hate to call them investors because i don't really think that's what they're doing, but the meme players keep playing the same stocks. why don't they move on to something else. >> that's a really good question i don't really have an answer to that maybe they're kind of stuck on these names and they figure they've already got everybody focused on these names and it's easy to -- st >> stuck on you, what's that -- >> stuck on you. >> stuck on you. it's the old -- >> like glue. >> yeah, right i think that's got to be it. >> yeah. >> so, i mean, you look at these things not as people who are playing them this is a game this is not an investment strategy, right? >> right >> yeah. it's in many ways sort of an

outo outgrowth of social media and gaming, and you know, if you can make a quick buck or, you know, a a lot of bucks in short time playing this flash mob phenomenon, then why not, and focus -- to focus on a few stocks makes sense because you could really move them if you start to diversify the portfolio of meme stocks that might wear off. >> lionel richie is who i couldn't think of. the brain is going. >> i think i had a different song in mind. >> i always look at it as well as sort of emblematic of what's going on in markets, we know a year and a half ago, two years ago, the meme stocks told you there was way too much liquidity in the system. what is it telling you now >> may very well be saying the same thing all over again. the s&p 500 bottomed on june 16th, and i think the reason it bottomed is because investors started to conclude that maybe we'd seen peak inflation, bond yields started comiing down commodity prices started coming

down all of that kind of made sense, but that also alerted speculators that maybe it's safe now to come back and play the game and that there is enough liquidity to do so >> so we began the hour by sort of posing the question why are bond yields slumping while the fed is signaling that it is going to continue raising rates? >> yeah, well, you know, a long time ago back in the early '80s, i started talking about the bond vigilantes the bond vigilantes were very vigilant at the beginning of the year bond yields went up dramatically, mortgage rates went up dramatically that certainly has helped to slow the economy down and create a housing recession for all practical purposes but now what i mean, now the bond yield has come down. they're not being very vigilant. it's not as though we are slam dunk assured that inflation is coming down, and yet we've got this drop in bond yields the only thing i can really explain is the bond market must be proceeding, things are going

to get a lot weaker, which certainly wasn't concerned by friday's employment report, and i think for investors are kind of viewing the united states as a safe haven i kind of kind it a new phrase here, t net. there is no alternative country. when people look at all the geopolitical mess we're in now, they want to be in the u.s. and the dollar's been strong and they've been putting it in fixed income. >> tea neck right next door, nice town. ed yardeni, thanks. >> always a pleasure. if investing in meme stocks makes you nervous, our next guest favors more traditional names. it's good to see you, my ichael ed was painting a more optimistic take of the macro backdrop i don't know if you need to kind of wane on the recession question in order to pick stocks right now. >> i don't think you need to weigh in on it i do think the interesting thing here is that we know that the

economic day ta and the earning data are going to kind of bottom, and before that happens, markets will begin to price in a rec recovery, so in many ways, i think investors, this cycle has been going at warp speed and so i think in some ways investors should be thinking about the recovery playbook, even though the economic labor and earnings data hasn't bottomed yet so what will do well in the early parts of a recovery. >> wait a minute, wait a minute, this is interesting. can what does well in the early parts of a recovery also be true if we have, for example, the postponement of a recession? in other words, what do you think the next six months are going to bring >> i do think that's possible. it is somewhat unclear in terms of this idea that if the fed keeps raising rates aggressively, i do think a recession is inevitable, but it may not be imminent and so as long as corporate profitability continues to be strong, which we have seen, labor markets,

certainly friday's job report was outstanding, and they continue to spend in terms of capital expenditures i think that some of these kind of cyclical stocks, particularly value oriented ones, can hang in there and perform well. >> and you have several names here one of them we just talked about, honeywell because it could be a beneficiary from some of the inflation reduction act stuff. 3m as well walk us through these. j >> so we put a few stocks together, one energy, two industrials and a bank those are all again if investors begin to price in a recovery before the data bottoms, these, i think, will all be winners so occidental pe ttroleu multiple 3m, kelly, 3m has increased its dividend for more than 20 consecutive years and it's got a

healthy 4% yield, never mind it beat its earnings top line and bottom line and is going to spin out its health care division this is another stock that should do well, and then finally, honeywell, you had just put on the previous segment should benefit from the inflation reduction act, and again, another company that beat on both earnings and revenues and i think will benefit from an increase in spending in the aerospace and defense industry. >> yeah. >> as you look at -- let's flip over to the bond side, and as you look at where yields are and you look at the inversion that is there between the 10 and the 2s and the 5s, what does that tell you u you say a recession is inevitable, but not imminent does that confirm your review? >> it does what it tells me is bond investors are pricing in a recession. ed yardeni mentioned it as well.

short-term yields are rising because the fed is going to raise rates aggressively the jobs report the other day, a lot of the inflation data continues to suggest that they have a lot of work to do short-term rates are rising still, long-term rates are reflecting -- they reflect three things tyler they reflect growth expectations, inflation expectations, and term premium let's put that aside for a minute growth expectations are falling pretty quickly and i do think that that's important. we just did an inflation impact survey of individual investors, and the majority of them expect a recession in the next 6 to 12 months >> there you go. mic my o'rooney, thank you very much we appreciate your time today. shares of valley bank up 12 proerch the past month, the consumer, the decline in rates even as the fed hikes. plus, we are trading dynamic

spo dick's sporting goods, find out which is a buy in today's three stock lunch. as we head to a break, a look at some of the tstocks hitting 52-week highs. yes, that happens in today's rt a sn, including mckesson, veexnden teen.

welcome back to "power lunch. shares of the mid sized bank

valley national up about 12% over the past month outperforming lots of big names in the s&p financial sector by almost 6 percentage points it's been a tough environment for banks to navigate. the interest rates continue to drop in many parts of the market as the fed continues to hike joining us with a look at the landscape and consumer and the lending is ira robins, valley bank's ceo and chairman. ira, welcome back. good to have you with us you know, we talked a little bit a moment ago with ed yardeni who said that a recession in his view was inevitable if not necessarily imminent i wonder what you think, and i particularly wonder if you're beginning to see any in your portfolio and business, any of the telltales of recession, namely businesses cutting back on loan demand, not borrowing as much, loans either delinquent or in default what are you seeing there if

anything >> if i was to listen to everyone on tv and read the newspapers, i would think a recession's imminent tomorrow, but when i look at the underlying performance of our organization, loan demand, which was up over 20% this last quarter, commercial pipeline which is up over $200 million going into the first quarter versus what was going into the second quarter, i would say the numbers don't support internally here at valley what a lot of the rhetoric is on the street today. >> so who's borrowing? who's increasing where's the loan demand coming from >> i think for us we're a commercial focused oriented bank, so the commercial demand is still very strong the consumer demand has definitely subsided a little bit today, and i think what we're seeing today, especially on the residential market is probably where we were two or three months ago that said, that's a decline of about 40% from where we were january and about 60% year-over-year so there's definitely been a decline in the consumer demand for loans, but that's begun to plateau. >> so tell me why mid-sized

regional banks seem to be outperforming the big boys, the chases, the bank of americas and so forth what's your hypothesis there >> i think a lot of those large banks are really consumer driven, where valley is a relationship focused commercial bank, and relationship focused commercial bank seems to be doing very well today. the commercial customer still has a lot of liquidity, still has a lot of capital exdemand they're looking for and demand is very strong within that specific segment today, so i think that the regional bank space is going to continue to outperform the large money center banks as well as some of the small banks. >> you've had a recent merger or acquisition of bank lee ooh mee. why and why now? why'd you do it? >> yeah, i think as we think about the future, you know, funding is going to become a greater and greater issue for the banking landscape. they had a significant amount of tech interest from a vertical perspective. we think it's important we continue to diversify the

funding across the entire organization i think the market has generally seen a lot of liquidity in the banking space, and as that begins to come out, going to treasuries, which is obviously impacting the overall yield on some of the treasuries, demand is going to outpace the funding that sits in the banking space today. >> ira, just to circle back, can you talk about those commercial customers and how solid their demand is, what that pipeline you think for loan growth looks like because the confusion people have about this recession and this economy is the fact that the consumer has slowed like you acknowledge, so tell us what's going on elsewhere and whether you think it's sustainable. >> i mean, i really do i think the projects that i see them looking at for certain equipment, seems to be very, very strong at our organization, so i think a lot of companies are looking at clean and environmentally friendly manufacturing, and there's significant demand for that type of product from a consumer perspective. as you see congress is beginning to think about sub psy diadvisig

the demand for some of that as well it's going to increase inflation without any question, but there's strong demand for that. >> let's put some numbers if you don't mind, everybody talks about how in periods of rising rates for banks, it can help net interest income and net interest margin tell us about what your experience has been in the most recent quarter on those two fronts >> i think banks in general did very well this last quarter from an index perspective, banks outperformed by about 4% this last quarter valley alone we were at 14% on our earnings per share, roan growth was over 20% for us, and margin expanded well over 25 basis points as well and typically when interest rates begin to rise, banks begin to -- some of the benefit from it right off the bat there's usually a lagging impact from a funding perspective two or three quarters later, the cost of deposits tend to increase right now is a sweet spot from the bank perspective as to where credit has a necessary turn if we are going to go into a

recession, and margins are really strong and profitability as a result has been fabulous for us. >> and i'm curious if you guys are experiencing what we're seeing on the macro level, ira with a lot of wage inflation you said you have good for profit margin growth right now, but what's that going to look like with productivity it's just terrible i don't know if you have any hypothesis about that. >> i would argue a lot of that's based on how people are working today. i don't want to gonecessarily on record as saying -- >> what's your work from home policy there at valley >> look, we have to be flexible and understanding what the competition looks like today as well you know, for us like i said, demand has been super, super strong we've had to really increase wages as a result of that, effective july 1st we increased 5% across the board wage for everyone making less than $75,000 within the organization. last year alone our average annual salary went up 11%, and we continue to have to make off

the annual basis adjustments on a month by month basis you know, all this is going to be inflationary as well, and there is still significant wage demand from my perspective >> wow, 11%. >> that's amazing ira, thank you so much. good to see you again. >> great seeing you. thank you so much for the time today. up next, the modern family office these firms are investing north of $100 billion in startups last year they're taking on the likes of the vcors, we're going to get an inside look. today's working lunch, we're getting up close and personal with san francisco fed president mary daily, pl "power lunch" is back in a moment searching for meaningful experiences and new adventures for you to embark upon. they say when you reach the top, there's only one way to go.

we say, that way is onwards. viking. exploring the world in comfort.

welcome back to "power lunch. family offices recently passed hedge funds in terms of money managed. we're talking more than $6 trillion. fortunately robert frank is here to take us inside this sometimes secretive and shadowy world of cozy called family offices, robert, and now they're pushing to the vc world. >> these family offices have gotten so big they are now taking on the venture capital industry their investments doubling last year to over $120 billion.

as you can see, more than 2,300 deals, that's ten times the level of 2014. now, part of the reason is that family offices are exploding in size, but they're also shifting more of their fortunes into private companies. for the latest family office investor, we talk to michael hyatt, he is a serial tech entrepreneur and family office founder. five years ago he invested in a canadian storage company that had only $5,000 a month in sales. now it's called go bolt and is valued at over 600 million >> if you find an entrepreneur you really like, don't be afraid to give that entrepreneur the biggest break they'll ever have because the payoff can be eno enormous, and that's what i did. i find people i really like and i want to row in the boat with, and i give them the biggest break and i bring money and capital and gravitas, and then i help them build something great, and it's worked out for me three, four times. >> and direct deals like that now account for about 20% of

family office portfolios ubs said that's going to grow to over 30% in the next five to ten years surpassing equities. you can see our full interview with michael hyatt on cnbc >> it's interesting to see them looking to put more money into startups it's not like there wasn't already a ton of competition he made this great investments, but vcs have been trying to do this for literally decades now. >> yeah. entrepreneurs love family offices more than vcs because there's no realtime line vcs typically have an eight to ten-year exit. family offices actually love time lines that are 20, 30, 50 years, so it's more patient, and the decision-making process is much faster. >> wow. >> so the entrepreneurs, you're right, they have choices there's competition. many of them are going to family offices also for the advice that entrepreneurs like michael can give them. >> fascinating. >> robert, thank you very much good to see you. good to have you in house. let's get to kate rooney now for a cnbc news update kate >> hi tyler, the biden

administration is preparing to move forward with a plan to stretch the limited supply of monkeypox vaccine doses. it would allow providers to use one fifth as much per shot. this comes a week after the biden administration declared it a public health emergency. police in new mexico are stepping up security at albuquerque area mosques and muslim community schools as investigators hupt for the suspect who gunned down four muslim men over the past nine months the city will be working with the police departments serving the university of new mexico and the albuquerque public school system working to ensure students are safely returning to their respective campuses. and issey miyake who built one of japan's biggest fashion brands has died of liver cancer. he was 84. tyler and kelly. back over to you. thank you very much. ahead on "power lunch" with meme stocks going viral yet again and investors potentially looking

for riskier bets or highly shorted stocks on the table as well, we'll discuss that in prestock lunch. plus, slumping in the seat, ticket prices higher than ever, but sellers like vivid seats lower for the year will the pushes for experiences over things get their stock back on track the ceo joins us next.

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welcome back, everybody. 90 minutes left in the trading day. we want to get you caught up across the markets on stocks, bonds, commodities and a look at consumer spending with the ceo of vivid seats with the dow at fresh session lows here, let's start with bob pisani at the new york stock exchange bob. >> lows for the day and the s&p is faring a lot worse than the dow today and essentially we've been moving sideways for a number of days i just want to show you the big semiconductor names that are out there. micron, remember, has had a tough time this year it's down about 35%, but on the comments they made yesterday, down 4.7%. today nvidia's down another 4% it could have been a lot worse just remember, a lot of people were saying much of the worst-case scenario is already behind us. you see some of the

semiconductor capital equipment names like applied materials, asml holdings, lam lrch down even more than that at this point, so keep an eye on that. airlines have been really strong recently, and they've had a great run. they're giving back a lot of the gains today, some of the other travel stocks are down, norwegian cruise lines, some disappointing commentary, that's down 10 or 11%, and that's affecting royal caribbean as well one of the bright spots is energy we've stabilized in oil in the last two or three days right around $90 here, so you get a little push up once you get oil a little more stable for some of the energy names like that and has exon and apa, the old apache by and large, we're about where we were six or seven trading sessions ago, kelly, and a lot of difficulty pushing the market forward when we do have the good news or the good sense that we're going to see some kind of modest recession or very mild recession, and that's the story the bulls were pushing

at the same time, they can't answer the fundamental question of where inflation is going to be you're sort of at a stalemate at this point in the s&p. >> and watching the energy trade for that reason, we'll talk to pippa about that if we see pressure coming back on the consumer from gas prices. first, though, let's get to the bond market where rick santelli is watching yields ahead of that cpi report in the morning, rick. >> yes, that cpi report is going to be important. you know, this morning we saw some major improvement in non-farm productivity, but that still brought us to a minus 4.6 for the second quarter preliminary, improvement but still really nasty productivity. we know that negative gdp back to back and rising job levels, solid job creation could only mean one thing productivity is not good, and most likely i don't see any improvement on the horizon for tomorrow, it's going to be a big day for the july consumer price index, and there's two areas that i think investors should pay close attention to.

if you recall last month the headline number was up 1.3 1.3 was a 42-year high back to 1980 tomorrow expectations are for 2 to three tenths. the year-over-year headline it was up 9.1 that was the highest in 41 years back to 1981 expected to be up 8.7. there could be surprises how did the market react those data points for june were released on the 13th of july here's a two year note yield since that time. you can see how it's turned back up to a higher yield, whereas the ten-year has gone somewhat flat, and that really does encapsulate the flattening/inversion going on because loan rates are super glued but yet short rates continue to move higher. >> rick, thank you very much. and now let's turn to energy, which is kind of a linchpin between inflation and

the markets, and we're seeing some stickiness around that $90 a barrel level, pippa stevens has the latest. >> yes, we are, oil is moving between gains and losses today in choppy trade. crude did bounce off the lows after russia's state owned pipeline operator said oil flows to eastern europe have been halted due to sanctions preventing the transit fee, but this was not enough to counteract demand, slowdown fears, and oil is finishing modestly lower wti is at 96 with brent crude around $96 nat gas is making back some of yesterday's slide with european gas also on the move, and that huge swing in prices amid europe's energy crisis is hitting consumers. energy firm cornwall released new figures forecasting the price cap level for the uk come january they see it surging above the 4,000 pound mark for the first time that's more than 200% above what households paid this year, and

this comes after the uk energy regulator said it would adjust the price cap every three months instead of twice a year, kelly, due to volatile markets. >> pippa, what is the point of a price cap if they just keep raising it did you say 2,000 pounds >> 200% above what it is this year, that's come january, and they keep raising it because the prices keep going up, so they're passing it along to consumers at a faster rate than they were previously, and that's leading to more and more calls about a crisis for consumers, particularly around the poverty line who just cannot afford an energy bill that's more than 4,000 pounds. >> we see social media campaigns don't pay uk things like that. they're just starting. pippa, thank you let's turn pack to new spending data from the u.s. showing a bit more resilience. we're not facing nearly the same energy crunch. new data shows total payments were up 7% from july a year ago, and card spending per household up 5%. that's amid the talk of

recession and gas prices that are just in july starting to abate. now for our next guest, a large part of that spending may be going to concert tickets vivid seats reported a strong quarter. with us is stan chia, the ceo. how is inflation factoring into all of this? >> hi, kelly, thanks for having me on. yeah, look, i think when we look at consumer spending patterns, you know, i think we're very proud of the fact that we are the only live events marketplace that has a rewards program for every single fan, and we're continuing to see strength in the business as folks, i think, try to move towards experiential things over materialistic things we just reported in the second quarter the largest numbers of orders we've ever done in a quarter, and i think that speaks to the strength of the business and also consumers' desire to go to live events. >> why is it that norwegian is out there saying they're not going to go back to prepandemic levels for another year, stocks get hit today. what's the difference between showing up to a concert and

booking a cruise >> yeah, look, i would tell you when we look at our business, you know, the underlying strengths of, you know, artists wanting to get back out there and tour, the teams wanting to get fans in the stands, and then just the fans' desire to be at live events where, you know, it might be a once in a lifetime chance to see elton john on his farewell tour. maybe this is the last time you'll catch adele performing at caesar's you know, any of these events, which i think have a more impactful experience with consumers, i think that continues to lead us to believe that users and consumers are willing to spend on live events, perhaps more so than other discretionary categories >> didn't adele sort of not show up for one of her things i can't remember. >> vegas, yeah. >> yeah, in vegas. there was one number that keeps getting cited in the reports and that is marketplace gov, $815 million that was a big number, a big increase over the past what does that number represent?

is that the total value of the tickets sold in other words, if i see on your site that a ticket for sebastian man skal coe is $1,700 and so that's -- is that the marketplace gov? >> yeah, hey, tyler, and yes, sebastian, that's going to be a great show you should definitely go check it out. >> i did i went and saw it and i bought him through you guys i was a happy customer. >> i love it, but yes -- >> the prudential center didn't know how to handle the crowd it was all right that's not your fault. that's their fault. >> when we look at marketplace gov, we had a great quarter almost up 20% year-over-yearer marketplace gov is everything that you see there on what consumers pay in aggregate that we've sold for the quarter. >> and so what is your take out of that? what is your revenue out of that total revenue? your total revenue is 120, something like that, for the half >> yeah, we did just under 148

million in revenue this quarter on that 800, over 800 million in gop. >> what is -- what is the strongest part of the business is it live sporti events, the return to concerts, comedy what has surprised you there, or is one stronger than the other or is it everybody just wants to get out and go >> yeah, i think we've seen a pretty concerted uniform effort from consumers to get back to events across all the categories for us we are certainly seeing strength across live events in concerts we're seeing them in sports. we're seeing the return of performing arts as well. sometimes it's really great news like soto going to the padres driving a spike in demand there. we've seen across our platform again, great strength across the categories we attribute a lot of that to the fact we've got a great rewards program out there to continue rewarding users to come

back to our platform. >> there's nothing like a live event. nothing like a live event at jones each that amphitheater there is one of the great viewing places ever stan chia, thanks, man >> thanks for having me, guys. >> yeah, see you soon. >> coming up, jon fortt is going to bring us his interview with san francisco fed president mary daly, hitting everything from the economy to equy itand inclusion. working lunch is next. we will be right back. >> announcer: the bond report is sponsored by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income.

friday's strong jobs number renewed concerns about how the high demand for labor is adding to pressing up on inflation. this week jon fortt brings us up close with a federal reserve official whose relationship with work started very early. jon. >> yeah, tyler, mary daly is president and ceo of the san francisco fed. she also dropped out of high school to work at age 15 after her parents got sick daly went on to earn her ged, bachelor's, masters and doctorate in economics she learned to thrive, until one

day one of her superiors put up a barrier that stunned her. >> and then someone told me that i wasn't going to be able to go in front of a specific group because i was gay. and it might be an embarrassment or it might not sit well because maybe the people we were going to speak to didn't really love gay people and it was the first time in my life where -- i mean, i've been odd for a long time, right i'm lower income, i'm from the wrong side of the tracks i'm gay, i dropped out of high school i got a lot of -- i'm short. you know, i've got a lot of things that don't make me fit. that was the first time that someone had directly told me that because of something i was i was going to be constrained, and it stopped me in my tracks i called a friend of mine and i said i don't know what's happening to me. and she happens to be a black woman, and she said, oh, the

first time someone stopped me and told me i wasn't going to be able to do something because i was black or i might not fit in because i was black and they said it out loud to me, it's like you've been hit by a car, you know, you're just stunned. and for me, that was the hardest moment in my career. >> a couple of allies at work came to her defense. she did speak to the group and it went well today's challenge for daly is different as she and other fed officials study how to bring down inflation without sparking a recession. is it possible for fed policy to reduce the number of job openings, a precursor to spiking wages without also causiing unemployment to rise it is never been done before, but this time might be different. >> low wage workers are really seeing rapid wage growth restaurants are competing with hotels in this reopening phase if you've been to an airport, it's hard to get in line for something because the food counters are under staffed, tsa is even under staffed. a lot of lower wage workers have

other opportunities now, and one of the main ones is in warehousing and distribution, right? that's been a booming sector, and it just increased the job opportunities for low wage workers, but the thing that makes the matching efficiency not as challenging this time around, though, is if you can work at a restaurant, you're pretty diversified you can go and work at a warehouse and distribution job without a lot of extra training outside of the on the job training that they provide so workers are pretty mobile across these lower wage sectors, a and that means they can get these jobs pretty readily, which would be good news for matching efficiency. >> unlike a lot of economists, daily has personal experience as a lower wage worker and being part of a marginalized group we'll see if the fed policy she's advocating can cool the economy without severely hurting the most vulnerable. guys. >> it's an inspiring story, and i guess it tells me once again, don't tell me i can't. let me show you what i can do.

i mean, and it's often that kind of jolt that is the most inspiring thing you see in business >> indeed and one of the things most resonant with her is the people who helped her at various stages in her journey, one was a teacher when she was in high school who had a friend who sort of encouraged her back into the educational process, which she views as so important for helping people to thrive in this next stage of the economy. >> i mean, the fact that she not only got her ged, do you know how she became an economist? did she talk about -- did she have a particular interest in that it's just such a -- -- look at her at the top of the field now, right? as one of the fed officials that we talk about who's moving all of these -- as everyone's watching the yield curves, she's one of the people we're talking about. >> her initial degrees were in economics and public policy, so her concern for people living in

all kinds of circumstances all, you know, both sides of the tracks was a part of that. she's also doing a podcast called zip code communities where she actually goes in and talks to people who are working in a community in one of the nine states that the san francisco fed covers so continuing to look into the real exacts on the ground of what the economy is doing. >> yeah, she probably represents more of the country than anyone but the president pretty much. it's a big, big portion. jon, thank you very much for bringing that to us. still to come, trading on the short run. tsgastheghlight stocks with huge be ain tm, and our trader will tell you whether or not to buy now

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welcome back toim time for today's three-stock lunch. it's three stocks with high short interest dick's sporting goods at 27%, urban outfitters 25% and cracker barrel at 16%. each of these are also more than 30% off their highs. let's trade them with victoria green from g squared private wealth victoria, what do you do with dick's sporting goods? >> we're a buyer of this rally of dick's. we think the company is in a

really good position they have been modernizing the last five years. you can pick it up curbside, one-hour ordering. they have a lot of high end products like the golf simulators, baseball simulators, they have trained staff to help you pick something out we've seen the high-end part of this market be more resilient. plus they rimmed the band-aid off first quarter so they let everybody know yes, things are more expensive and wanges and labor cost a little more so i am a buyer of dick's after this bounce. >> once sports authority went away, they have that sports superstore, at least in the east, largely to themselves. >> they have 8% of the market. >> let's go to urban outfitters. let us know what you think there. apparel has been a tough place to be. >> it has, it has. we still a seller of urban outfitter. i think this downtrend is intact

and don't think they'll break out of it. it's all about the inventory game right now they're going to struggle to get inventory off the books. barclay's estimation their sales to inventory has been negative growth so inventory continues to build. as we know with fashion, it changes. it changes seasonally and over time so they have to use promos to get this off their books and it's going to be a struggle and drag on margin i know it's a highly shorted stock and in a downtrend struggling to break out, bouncing around 20 to 18 and i'm not a buyer, just a seller. >> tell us how you really feel all right, i love it >> what about cracker barrel, victoria >> oh, cracker barrel is going through an identity crisis so i'm a seller of cracker barrel right now they want to be this home country value store but now they're adding pricier options to their market. they are well endowed -- the senior part of the market is very strong versus other competitors so they face pressures from potentially

people on fixed income as well as they really can't figure out their customer base. they want to grow and appeal to millenials but they're not tech forward, not very to go friendsly. they try to add plant based and it caused an uproar with their client base so they can't add new consumers and millenials and appeal to the vegetarians because that's alienating the seniors. so right now i just think their model is struggling. they have got commodity inflation expected, 8 to 10% wage growth expected and i don't think they're going to see the sales growth so this company needs to figure out who they are, how they're going to grow profits. i will say this as well, they're a value. that's how they market themselves as a value diner but there's always a little cheaper options in the fast food so they're not value enough to be value, but also not trendy enough or high ending enough that you're going to go out for

a treat necessarily at the cracker barrel you'll go to texas roadhouse or outback. so they're in a weird middle ground. >> did i hear you say cracker barrel and vegetarian in the same sentence? >> i did you see it, it kausz caused thi twitter and facebook uproar because they added an impossible meat patty they thought they were being innovative they went viral for all the wrong reasons. >> i like cracker barrel. >> it's not fried, but it was close to fried since it's a fake sausage patty. >> i'm craving some right now. >> my wife loves it. >> thank you, victoria victoria green for more high shortage stocks that could presenting opportunity, head over to cnbc.com/pro or crack er barrel. up next, we'll put some interesting tore stories under microscope for you we'll be right back. but, at upwork, we found her.

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for your free decision guide. medicare supplement plans also let you see any doctor. any specialist. anywhere in the u.s. who accepts medicare patients. take charge of your health care today. consider adding this. call unitedhealthcare today about an aarp medicare supplement plan. welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. he were are a couple of stories that caught our attention today. ford hiking the price of its f-150 lightning pickup the automaker citing significant material cost increases. the starting prices for the 2023 model will range from $47,000 to $97,000. >> wow. >> that's up from $40,000 to $92,000 for the 2022 model year. price hikes come ahead of the reopening of orders on thursday. the company closed orders for the vehicle late last year

they can't keep up with demand this is what we weretalking about yesterday with one of our guests about price hikes tesla doing the same thing, the model y, which used to be at the high 50s, now it's closer to 70,000 so a lot of these electric vehicles are under pressure. >> cynically i couldn't help but wonder if this would be the amount of subsidy they could we getting with the $7500 tax credit i'm not sure they would qualify, the sourcing requirements are so high. >> it is demand and it is lack of supply. you have to wait a long time. finally, people are taking more vacations these days but also spending more time on vacation checking in work. that's just what we do we have these things everywhere. >> they chase you. >> they do so you're working from home. but a recent survey found 60% are still in touch during vacations and i saw dan doing that on vacation yesterday. >> you were off last week, what did you do >> i was with the kids to cover

for the baby-sitter. >> you come here to recover. >> if i touch this device while they're around, it's over, so i was forced to take a true break. >> forced sabbatical i'm pretty -- what is that oh, she's talking -- our producer was checking the 2/10 spread kelly take us out of here. >> thank you for watching "power lunch, " everybody. >> "closing bell" right now. another choppy session on wall street as investors await tomorrow's key inflation report. nasdaq is under pressure down 1.2% as we head into the close the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara ieisen. we're down half a percent on the s&p 500. you've got strength in groups like energy, utilities, real estate and financials. everybody else is down and tech is being hit the hardest the nasdaq is down 1.1%. consumer discretionary and technology weak. a lot of the apparel names i