good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm brian sullivan along with melissa lee joe and becky and andrew are out today. melissa, good to quote see you >> i know. it's been a while, brian this will be a fun three hours ahead. >> either that or destroy our careers in an instant. one of two things will happen. >> yeah. >> we can choose >> it's in our power >> i do miss you, melissa. it's been 22 years >> yeah. tv brother and sister, i think the best analogy. >> peter and jan or greg and marsha let's get to the channel and

fast money dow futures are looking fine on this friday morning. up 170 points. incredible rally, melissa. knocking the bears out of the way as the bulls come in oddly, bonds continue to get bought 10-year treasury remaining at the 2.8% mark. bond market and stock market are in different directions. we will add fast money with carter braxton coming up, melissa. we will ask him about the bond market and stock market. we will do segments about gasoline under $4 a gallon nationwide enjoy it i think it will be above that today because the price of oil is $94.50. oil gained $6 a barrel in three sessions among the top corporate stories we are watching is rivian a smaller than expected loss

better than forecast revenues in the latest quarter investors are focusing on guidance trimming the financeial outlook. investors should expect a wider loss rivian maintaining the full guidance of deliveries and production targets brian, that's got news it has cash on hand for a company this young >> listen, here is the thing about rivian the trucks are beautiful somebody in my neighborhood got one. you know, famously they have the price increase they tried to push through they said we're sorry. due to supply chain issues a few months ago and we need to push your price up and in some cases $15,000 to $20,000 a mini revolt internally they said if you ordered before a certain time, you will have the original purchase price. they just sent out a notice a couple days ago saying that the

inflation reduction act may be bad for their business and asking people to lock in contracts so they could get the $7,500 credit. they were trying to push through $15,000 price hikes. if they didn't, you wonder what it means for the profitability or the lack of on each car >> it is the people who put down reservations who were able to say no to the price increase the ones going forward will pay the higher price as the ceo said on the conference call, freight costs and cost thinge lithium is high. in terms of where it sees with the inflation reduction act, that will be a huge question mark at this stage of the game in terms of the longevity, brian, it had the benefit of the ev tax

credit as it barely has cars out the door you have seen a spike of interest in recent days because people want to lock it in. you look at price increases and you look at stripping away at the ev tax credit, that is a bigger bite out of your wallet >> and not all of this credit apparently will go to rivian maybe it has something to do with union labor or whatever i'll try to find the note and post to social a day or two ago somebody sent it to me the inflation reduction act passes and the $7,500 tax credit and some martparts may not applo future rivian purchases. they asked people would had a deposit to lock it in. i will buy the car and you guarantee yourself the $7,500.

it sounds, melissa, rivian is suggesting going forward parts of the $7,500 tax credit is not applicable. >> that is why they want you to lock it in before it is signed into law we will address that there wasn't a clear answer e except they have seen more interest lately. >> i did this on "worldwide exchange" as my random but interesting segment, melissa there is a robust after market for rivian auctions. i looked at a web site and people who buy a rivian and post it to the web site they were selling the trucks

with 75 miles on them for $110,000 rivian stock has been a tough go, melissa. if you flip the truck -- people were making $40,000 instantly by flipping the rivian. >> news you can use. >> yes, if you have a rivian, you can use that let's move on. in covid news, it this is big. cdc is loosening the covid guide lines before kids go back to school the cdc, and get this, people should no longer be required to quarantine after being exposed regardless of the vaccination status except in certainly settings, jails, nursing homes and homeless shelters. cdc recommends wearing a an mas

for ten days and getting a test on day five. and the recommendation to test kids to stay in school after exposure -- this will be politically charged. a lot of people will say i told you so on this whatever you think about it, whatever, but wow. a different disease now. we get it. what a big change by the cdc >> it is closer to return to normal which is a good thing for businesses and every day life. let's get to the big movers in trading this morning. joumanna bercetche is joining us now. joumanna >> good morning, melissa global markets are building on the gains from wall street we had a mixed move from asian equities hong kong is down .8% over

covid-19 breakouts hang seng and hong kong billing building on gains. nikkei is back to levels not seen since the beginning of the year the stoxx 600 is up 1% today continuing to gain momentum to ftse 100 is up still pointing to a decline for the quarter. one name we are watching in the basket is gsk. the pharmaceuticals were talked about yesterday. that is up there is a lot of concern over growing litigation out of the u.s. facing gsk specifically cac 40 up .30% dax is up .60% led by chemicals

and industrial names back to you. >> joumanna, thanks. joumanna bercetche. other stocks to watch. illumina shares down the revenue fell short of e expec expectations citing macroeconomics v challenges also poshmark is reporting a wider second quarter loss. that was mostly driven by higher spending and marketing revenue topping the company's forecast poshmark revenue guidance is short of estimate. the another stock of note. toast. payment systems for restaurants beat forecasts. brian. thank you, melissa we have more to do on "squawk box" on friday

from inflation data to earnings and bulls in charge. the themes driving your in investments right now. we will talk to two money managers about it. check out the biggest s&p winners and s&p losers warren buffett buying more occidental moderna. vax maker may fall chicken. tyson. take-two interactive a long way to go g glad you are up with us on this friday morning we're back after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box. looking at futures green across the board nasdaq higher by 62. 4231 is the level to watch in the s&p. a 50% retracem of the bear marke loss alicia levine is joining us now and greg branch of veritas financial. greg, i feel you don't buy into all of the partying going on with the latest softer than expected inflation reads >> i don't i find little to celebrate despite the market thinking otherwise. at the end of the day, we saw meaningful progress against

energy and airline fares we have little to confirm that the fed acted swiftly enough most agree they didn't encouraging to raise rates in the back half of 2021. they have not acted aggressively enough this will become apparent out of jackson hole james has been walking back with jay powell a couple of weeks ago to put risk back on by saying we like to see a fed fund rate of 4% by december and we like that to be front loaded i don't think the market is pricing that in. i don't think the market prices in recession in january, i said the fed had and raised rates in 2021that we would face risk of recession this year. technically we are in one. that will deepen as we enter the back of the year as wealth >> it is interesting i think there has been some debate over whether or not jay

powell a couple weeks back was hawkish or dovish, alicia, regardless of where you stand on that you think the fed has a long way to go. we shouldn't buy into the respond and tilt >> the rally in the last six-to-eight weeks is driven by the bond p market and precipitous drop of yields from 3. 3.40 to 2.50 let's take the thinking a little bit further. we do think inflation will be sticky on the wages and rental side for housing clearly the question you have to ask is why is it yields have dropped dramatically and driving the multiple in the market the answer is because the bond market is pricing in significant slowdown in the economy. so much so it is pricing in cuts next year.

if we think that, what does that mean for earnings? we are back to the same issue of, yes, the rally was great our clients are invested we don't trademark it. our clients participated in the rally which was great. the question you have to ask is earnings season was better than feared, going forward you can't believe the bond market is right and equity market is right at the same time. looking forward for the next 12 months >> i buy into the notion the 10-year yield is pricing in something not great for the economy, greg, but it has been the green light for particularly tech stocks and high growth stocks that is what we have seen go on in the past six-to-eight weeks in particular. how do you separate what your believes over the economy signaling? >> sequence is important here,

melissa. the time duration is important as well. for a colleague who invested 100% all the time, you look for the things that ride through an environment which has macro challenges and policy challenging up coming. there are lots of great companies over the near term look at the travel and entertainment sector and energy and it will work and have a durable top line those names will continue to work throughout the challenges sequentially we need to go through the market hasn't reached peak fed hawkishness that is something the market will digest in september subsequent to that, the bond market is right. the market will suggest a deepening recession for the back half of the year companies will be more subject and exposed to that than others. that is the opportunity once that is behind us.

remember, many headwinds this year peak inflation that will be behind us peak hawkishness that will be behind us i was looking for downward revisions. we have yet to encounter that for 2023 numbers that will be largely behind us your sequence is important with the duration of investment and time period. >> thank you, alicia and greg. coming up, potentially bad news for a well known hedge friend manager on the meme stock frenzy stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" here on cnbc

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welcome back to "squawk box. time for the executive edge. s.e.c. is investigating melvin capital management over risk controls and investor disclosure after the meme stock rally the founder told investors he would return money and wind down the firm funds. and samsung's lee jay will receive a pardon lee was put in prison twice for bribing the south korean former president. it will wipe a 2017 conviction from his record, but faces legal issues over an accounting scandal. brian. melissa a tha, thank you.

this exclusive data inn sideser buying this is one segment we normally do only on "worldwide exchange," but because i'm here, we have one massive insider buy this week it is nice to heiit it twice. here we go the fifth biggest insider buy this week is ball corp $1 million buy from the cfo. the fourth most insider buy is parsons. $1.5 million of the engineering and design firm. stock three is transunion. credit monitoring agency ceo making an insider buy of $1.9 million first insider buy for him ever

stock two is civitas resources a denver based oil and gas firm. ceo buying $2 million of stock up 20% in six months check this out the biggest insider buy this t week and one of the biggest we have seen in two years of doing this energy pipeline company energy transfer founder and executive chairman making a $30 million buy of et shares last week per share price was just a couple of cents under $11. this is another big buy for warren, me lilissa who is close putting $30 million. the top five ball corp, parsons, transunion,

civi it tas and energy transfer. i figured, with a $30 million buy, you are the host of fast money and talk about stocks all night long, you might have something to say that's a big buy. >> a big one particularly since the run from july lows and eyeballing it more than 20% he is buying into strength transunion purchase caught my eyes because it was the first purchase by the ceo. when you see the difference of behavior, you want to see if it is the first time or bigger than normal or if these ceos have track records of good buyers they buy it at lousy times for the stock. >> incredibly important point you are making i want viewers if you are new to the segment, this doesn't mean the stocks will go up. melissa, some insiders are not

good ti timing stinks or have contracts to buy them. the cfo of ball corp the first buy in 18 years. that's a long time what does he see now that he likes? >> exactly >> thanks for doing insider buy. coming up on "squawk box." the big washington stories you need to know today including the house expected to pass the inflation reduction act. build back better. whatever you want to call it 3:00 p.m. eastern time is the estimated time of passing. as we head to break, a look at the s&p 500 winners and losers from yesterday. a good run for the markets on the winner side is d eevon energy on the losing side enphase and pfizer and service now and equinix.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the futures are green across the board. s&p 500 poised to log the best period in more than a year higher by 17 points. nasdaq looking to be up by 65. the house of representatives set to pass the inflation reduction act. this will clear the last hurdle before president biden signs the bill into law. we are watching for that, brian. all right. thank you very much. gas prices hit a significant milestone this week. in fact, yesterday, we told you about it the national average of a gallon fell below $4 nationwide for the first time since march $3.99. higher in some places. average is $3.99

first time it happened since march. here is the bad news price of oil risen $6 a barrel in three days. let's talk about it with amrita sen. amrita, you are overseas $4 a gallon. you are probably paying $8 in the uk or whatever you may be. the price of oil has popped ag again. what is on your radar ahead for oil? >> i just got back from the u.s. i was in colorado. i saw the prices being lower than $4. you know, six weeks ago or five weeks ago, it was higher you can absolutely see the difference like you say in europe, they remain a lot higher. i through the key point over here is we have seen a correction lower for both crude prices, of course gasoline prices as well

seas seasonally, this is a lull people are on holiday and not a lot of trading going on and th rece recession. we had positive cpi points the rate of change of monthly prices is starting to slowdown somewhat that means people are not as fearful of deep recession. we are expecting a recession in europe a mild one in the u.s. the market has mispriced or freaked out about the possibility of the recession being quicker and deeper that's what the market was pricing in incoming data is helping the fears. i think prices will continue to rise higher and like you said, the spr is winding down. that is absolutely critical. >> there is also something i think our viewers need to know and i might be quoting amrita sen back to amrita sen if the economy goes back into a

recession, that does not mean that global oil demand is going to go down, does it? in fact, in the past 60 years, we had a number of recessionary periods. i think there has been nine years where global demand has gone down. yesterday, the iaea raising the global demand forecast >> absolutely. you are spot on. that is probably something we've talked about before. only four periods in the history of the oil market where oil demand declined. it adds up to nine years in the '70s and '80s and '09 and 2020 those are specific periods they conflate a recession with 2008 and 2009. that was a credit crisis that wasn't a normal recession a normal recession is what happened in the 2000 and late

'90s when europe was in a deep recession, oil prices were $130 per gbarrel globally it still rose asia hasn't reopened china is still in lockdowns. that is what the market misinterprets recession with the oil demand >> going forward, let's talk a lot of stuff happening in the fall here in the united states, amrita, you just got back from colorado -- by the way, reports of an energy analyst filling her luggage with gasoline to take back to the uk maybe you can help us with that clue >> wasn't me >> yeah. we've got millions of americans who are basically ordered back to the office after labor day. in the new york area, los angeles, a lot more people and they are grumbling they are on the roads or trains commuting back to work

spr release is winding down. it has to be refilled. the full eu sanctions on russia don't kick in until december 5th. i can make a bull/bear case. how do you see this playing out? it will be a crazy couple of months >> i think the most important stats in all of this is like you are saying the spr released 150 million barrels of crude oil u.s. mainly. little bit of europe and japan and korea. commercial stocks, crude oil in the four regions are down about 10 million barrels imagine if the spr hadn't happened, you would have drawn $ 160 million barrels. even with that amount of oil coming out of spr, we managed to draw as soon as that stops, you know

where i'm headed, we will see very steep draws the embargo is yet to kick in. look, all of this does point to higher oil prices and let alone we are expecting xi jinping to allow the chinese economy to slowly reopen after the 20th party congress in october. i keep repeating this. we are at $100 without china chinese crude oil is 2 million barrels per day lower than the last few months. the only good news for consumers is seasonally, gas demand peak in the summer. it will come off in the winter seasonal prices suggest that gas will be weaker in the winter again, i'm not -- i don't see a one for one increase because crude oil goes up. >> amrita, we have to go you are right. i wonder with a lot of people going back to the office in america after labor day, the

seasonal trends may go out we will see. amrita sen, i hope you spent money in the united states we need it thank you. in political news, former president trump will not oppose the attorney general's request to unseal the search warrant with connection to the search of mar-a-lago monday. jay gray joins us from washington with the latest >> reporter: good morning, melissa. we started with the unprecedented certify even and seizure of the florida home. a deposition in a separate civil investigation and now in hours, we may learn more about what the former president continues to call a raid at mar-a-lago as the partisan rhetoric along with threats surrounding that situation continue to intensify. >> reporter: attorney general garland ratcheting up the legal pressure on former president trump. asking a federal judge to unseal the search warrant and list of

items seized at mar-a-lago >> in light of the public c confirmation of the search and circumstances and public interest in the matter >> reporter: mr. trump acknowledging online overnight he won't block the release of the information. the unparalleled action by garland and unfounded accusations by the former president and allies and stepped up increasingly violent rhetoric online. >> i will not stand by silently they when are unfairly attacked. >> reporter: the department of justice and other law enforcement agencies. >> when you talk like this, it doesn't sound like pro cop, but pro coup >> reporter: attack on the field office in cincinnati the suspect died after a shootout with police nbc news confirming he was at the capitol during the january

6th insurrection following the search at mar-a-lago, posted on social media, about his desire to kill fbi agents and urging others to engage in violence and be ready for combat this morning, the report of the identity of the judge who signed off on the search warrant and na names of his familiy members ar posted online. >> jay, there is a report this morning from the washington post about nuclear documents? >> reporter: absolutely. washington post reveal sources say the documents of nuclear weapons inside mar-a-lago. not clear if it is u.s. weapons or other countries another note, there are indications this morning that there may be more classified material inside mar-a-lago certainly not the end of this. we should find out more this afternoon. >> jay, thanks

jay gray coming up, we will talk about the apple's recent one e run and don't miss the interview with anthony scaramucci. get the best of "squawk box" in ll sawily podcast. foowquk pod on your favorite podcasting app. stay tuned with next-generation bandwidth. enable ai cameras that spot factory issues in real time, using next-generation speed. and deliver ultra-capacity 5g coverage that's years ahead of the competition. t-mobile for business has 5g that's ready right now.

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welcome back take a check on equities dow looking to at 109. yesterday, six of the 11 s&p finished lower on the session. the major u.s. average on pace to close higher. s&p up 1.5% over the first four days the fourth straight up week. the longest streak since the winning run ended in november. energy is up 6%. financials and materials gained more than 3% since this week began. in corporate news, johnson & johnson will stop selling talc based baby powder in 2023. they stopped selling two years ago following the consumer safety lawsuits. there are 38,000 legal filings claiming it caused cancer. johnson & johnson denies the allegations and maintains testing and regulatory approvals say it is safe

it will transition to corn based powder in technology news, apple is asking supplies to make as many new internation iphones as last year it will suggest apple is confident it will withstand a slowing global economy and supply chain issues and drive of strong demand for the devices. the market is up 15% over the last three months. they have been on the rise. to another important read on the economy. more important than the stock market housing. home prices continue to rise in the second quarter even though higher mortgage rates slowed demand national association of realtors reports the median price is up more than 10% from the year earlier and 80% of the 185 metro

areas surveyed. coming up here on "squawk box. the call of the consumer posting numbers next week. we will get you ready for that and what to expect on back to school check out the nasdaq winners and losers as we head to break netflix, meta. booking holdings a lot more gainers jd.com you are watching squawk. we're back after this.

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woelcome back. stock futures on the rise. dow futures up 118 points.

this everything rally continues. we see this with the crypto as well a lot of green on the screen here ethereum is up 75% in 30 days down right now it has been a heck of a run for here. they are down right now but overall, it has been a heck of a run for the crypto's for the past couple days. we have a retailer coming out next week as investors wait to hear from the biggest names on the strength of the consumer. it has been a while. it is great to see you. >> it is great to see you. >> it's like a little reunion.

everyone will be watching walmart and target. do you feel that your view of the consumer with the headwind to the consumer is going to change at all? >> i don't think my view will change much about what is going on here. on top of that, we have tjx. estie lauder which is a going out consumer and tapestry is the aspirational consumer. we will see everybody. we will find out that the supply chain, the world is working for containers. the stuff is coming in and we've been spending two quarters adjusting inventory to get into a point of what the customer really wants. i am a little concerned about throwing another billion dollars on the inflation fire because retail inflation,

retail goods inflation, has peaked and is coming down. maybe not so much for the consumer services side of the economy but the retail side of the economy, that clearly had peaked maybe a quarter ago as far as the inflation component so i think we will find out that people are pretty comfortable with the consumer. we have strong back to school. where the inventory for afterschool. the consumer looks fine. the bottom two quintiles are getting really hurt with inflation but they still have a job and they are spending, so they might not be keeping up a some of them are getting more raises than the inflation. summer getting less and are struggling to keep up. but they are still doing pretty darn well and that is the consumer >> i'm wondering because what we've heard from retailers last

quarters that consumers were making trade-offs. you mentioned peak inflation when it comes to retail goods having peaked. speaking doesn't mean that they are not high and some wondering, do you think that trade-off for the trade down is still happening? that influences how we think about some of these retailers. >> that is apsley still happening. walmart will reinforce that when we hear from them next week. we are seeing tried trade down for private label. you will see that until inflation goes away. but the real driver of inflation has slowed down for us. we will continue to see that get better unless there is some other shock pushing at the other way.'s >> home depot and lowe's are different animal because they are impacted by consumer behavior but mortgage rates and how it impacts the consumers' ability to finance project. >> consumers moving away from

where they are. the consumer saying i'm going to go out and do things and i'm going to take vacations and do that i'm not going to put that money back into my house right now but what we will find out is that that part slowed down some but there's a very long with that commercial part of the business and home depot is the commercial part of the business and i think we will see a divergence there and they will talk about that. lowe's will work more with the average consumer. that we will find out that the consumer is slowing down there but to the commercial enterprise is not slowing down. >> commercial there is a real push poll and i guess i think of commercial, it is mostly contractors. contractor work. to finance the project, the cost of financing has gone up in terms of the entire cost of the project. that may have gone up as well. it probably has because of material as well as labor. use it will remain strong but in theory, there should be

quite a few headwinds facing that segment of the business as well. >> there will be it just has not started up because so much business was packed up in the pipeline with the contractor still very busy. so as it starts to work through and it starts to affect the future projects, we will see that happened but we do not see that happen in the second quarter. >> when your top picks at this point? who do you think comes out the best after next week? >> how can you not be a fan of target and walmart given that they are winning the game on market share and that the business that they are competing with with amazon is slowing down. you have to like them. but also very much like tapestry. they will report when they come up. those two i see as similar businesses and i like the aspirational consumer. so i like the strong brands that are dealing with the more affluent consumer will stick with us and i think tapestry

falls into that category. >> it's great to see you. thank you. five big chinese companies will delist their stock from the u.s. stock exchange. they're making the announcements today. these are big names and they include china life insurance, the oil giant side attack, the aluminumpart of china. they are saying that they made this decision on their own. they're not being forced out by the united states. that basically they said that regulatory hurdles and various considerations made this decision for them. there effectively saying that the regulatory requirements from the u.s. government or the ftc, or combination of, made it impossible for them to continue listing. they will list on hong kong and mainland china. but the u.s. stock exchange losing $1 trillion, i am guessing, with the market cap.

>> will other companies file suit? we're thinking of the big chinese text sump tech companies . they could choose to be off of the u.s. exchanges in advance of formal rulings. so that is sort of plaguing this. as long as the issue has been alive. the biggest stock movers that we will talk about the charge. stay tuned, we are watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

there are green arrows to start your friday. the s&p on t-rac for the longest week. apple is a big part of that, sitting close to a one-month high of 30% from the june low. is it time to buy more apple? and we debate the benefits of working from home versus being in the office. millions are ordered back to the office. how do you get through this confusing time? we will talk about it in the

second hour of "squawk box" which begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i am melissa lee along with brian sullivan this morning. we are looking at a higher opener. this a streak for the s&p 500. looks to be up by 17 points. nasdaq by 56 points. looking at the treasury market, part of the formula is the 10 year yield remaining pretty tame. we are at 2.869%. for oil, it is starting to happen this morning. we see it continue here. brent is just under $100.

as for crypto, crypto winter continues but are we seeing a bit of a bounce back? we mentioned a huge streak in the past 30 days or so. bitcoin is trading 23,780. >> another headlines, higher mortgage rates are slowing demands for homes but not enough to keep prices from rising. the national association of realtors surveyed metro areas and found the 80% of those, that is 8 of 10, prices were up more than 10% from a year earlier during the second quarter. it has started to slow in some markets. >> "the new york times" ping three and $50 million for 7% of the company. the value act wants to more

aggressively market subscriber only market. wordle, which almost nailed on the first time yesterday. that would be the first time for that. walgreens has a severe shortage of pharmacists. it will be big bonuses to solve that problem. the drugstore operator paying from $30,000 the $70,000 to convince them to sign up. you off to stay on the job but that is a big deal and a big bonus in a much-needed industry. and covid news, the cdc is listing covid safety guidelines. no longer recommends people quarantine after being exposed, regardless of vaccination status, except in certain settings including jails, nursing homes, and homeless shelters. the health agency eliminating the recognitions that children stay in school after an exposure.

that is a big turn there. amongst the top corporate stories, the truck and suv maker with a smaller than expected loss. investors are focusing on the guidance. they are trimming the outlook and they should expect a loss may be fewer cars than previously forecast. their meeting the full-year guidance for delivery. and we talked about this at the 6:00 hour. this is a big deal. we talked about how the electric car tax credit, $7500, is an important part of the sale. we have the inflation reduction act being marketed as a climate bill but the buyers got this email i think it was yesterday, which this is what they're

saying about the inflation reduction act. once signed into law, the ira will add new restrictionsto buyers' eligibility to receive the $7500 credit for an ev. under these restrictions, and electric vehicle must be priced below $80,000 and the buyer must fall below certain income threshold to qualify. i don't know, melissa, if this has gotten a lot of publicity or not, but i don't think you can overstate it. the reality about electric car , that means that those buyers, we can argue that they don't need them. if you can for that kind of car, you probably have a lot of money but that tax credit will go away in a bill that is being marketed as a climate friendly bill. >> the question is, how well it impact the rivian buyer.

they obviously can afford a luxury vehicle. right now we are in a period with people are more accepting of ev's as opposed when tesla started delivering those vehicles. people were skeptical about whether they want to charge their cars. so they may not have to be that credit to get people to buy. also, for rivian, they have delivery of the commercial side going on, which underpins this balance sheet. >> i saw my first rivian in person. their gorgeous trucks. not seen the suv yet. don't think the suv has been rolled out yet but the truck is simply gorgeous but i will tell you that i have to toe stuff. >> inquiring minds want to

know. >> i have a 1992 malibu water ski boat. it is 30 years old last month. happy 30th birthday. have a race car that i periodically tow around. like things like that. so love these electric trucks, how fast they are, but i've been doing research about the towing capability like the f 150 lightning. car and driver, reputable trade magazines are saying that they are getting 100 miles on a charge towing a 7000 pound trailer. i'm sorry, but that is a nonstarter. you're not stopping every hour and a half and then have to disconnect the trailer. i think there will be a lot of stuff coming up. we will see. i tow things. >> let's talk apple. asking suppliers to make as many new iphones as they did last year. apple expects to make 200

million total phones this year. the suggest that they are confident they will be able to withstand the slowing economy. apple shares have been on a run up about 15% over the last three months. we will speak to the analyst in just a few minutes about where the stock is headed next. but certainly, people were thinking that maybe apple would be the next shoe to drop in terms of warning about the potential macro impacts. we did not get that with the latest quarter and then we got the report that needs to confirm that story. >> this is a little sideways here, but there was a report out from bank of america, about consumer spending. it was not on apple. it was a macroeconomic thing. they talk about 30% of consumers are delinquent in a bill. i mention that because they noted that even above mortgage

and utility, 90% of people will pay the cell phone bill on time every month. it's a number 1 bill they paid first. literally cell phone and mortgage, utility, everything else. that tells you how important that little particular device is in all of our lives. >> that is a good nugget. tiktok over a roof over your head. >> random but interesting. closing near flat following the short-lived rally on the back of another positive inflation report. joining us now is carter worth. good morning. a lot of people are making a lot about the level. wondering if you think they'll be a 50% trade into the bear market losses. >> at thinking about all of that towing. have not towed anything today. the market, so what do we know?

it is fascinating. we have something for everyone at this moment. you have an equity market that plunged 25% of the s&p level. and now, it recovered exactly half of the selloff. so they could say, you this is recovered and we're halfway back. and then the bear could say, we had the plunge and it's real stuff just because you came halfway back on the use of a very bad year for equities and now gets harder because look at apple. the stock you were talking about. it is up 32% from the low of just seven weeks ago. and just as you said, we are exactly the level that is being cited by trend watchers around the world. it is also, to the penny, where the 150 million average comes into play. >> what does that mean?

maybe we have seen a bottom, but it is not necessarily a signal that we will move higher? how do you interpret that? >> so, we are all looking, all of us as a human condition, for an opportunity which in the market is something that is about to move but we have had a lot of movement. the rates have been up for a long time, then they re-rated lower. and we know that the dollar was searching for months and then it rated lower. and the market settle down after plunging. what if we are where we belong? meaning, plus or minus that equity going quiet here. you don't always have to be on the move. plunging or surging or advancing or declining. my hunch is that after all these machinations and gyrations, we will go quiet here for a bit. >> in the category of going quiet or, to use another one of your terms,, you think that the

s&p falls into that category? what are some of the stocks that you think are sort of where they might belong right now? where they should be? >> and it is a curious phrase to use about the market. mostly things are moving but to answer the first question, if you have to put oneself in the barrel, i remain that this is not the beginning of an all clear or heading to new highs. my inclination is to reduce exposure. in terms of favorite areas of the market, healthcare for me is the number one. it's been that way for a while and it's only because it has both offenses and defensive characteristics. we have the drug companies that are at very defenses.

you also have low beta. and the offensive characteristics of biotech which is roaring back to life. if you to pick just one thing to do, that would be mine. >> in terms of prior, it is a big move lower. what is your hunch? >> we have the 50% decline. once we climbed back 50%, we did not go back to the lowe's, you had a setbacks that are 20% plus at any given time. i would rather make that bet and that is how i am. that we do give back a good

deal of this as to whether we make the new low or not, i don't know. >> great speaking to you. thank you. is it time for a cocktail yet? is it 5:30 p.m. on a friday? >> coming up here on "squawk box" apple stock rallying from 130 per share to 170. what is driving apple? we will talk about after the break. and tom farley is back and will be our guest we will talk about inflation. inflation reduction act and much more. that is coming up here in about 15 minutes. tom will join us as well. we will be right back.

let's talk about the markets including tech and apple. apple has been one of the biggest stocks. up to about $600 billion in market cap. can apple keep up the momentum? now we have the senior research analyst. is apple driving the market, or is apple just riding

the wave? >> good morning. i think it's a little bit of both. there have been a few things that have happened. the nasdaq has gone up about 27%. apple is a key component of that so those things have been reinforcing, but we've seen a lot of growth do well over the last several weeks. the second thing is that apple reported earnings if you weeks ago and they were surprisingly confident about the business going forward and many investors feel, okay, we might have economic weakness going forward, but apple is perhaps immune to that given the franchise frame. >> i don't know if we patched in, if we see the random stat

about getting payments before the break. >> i did not. >> i will repeat it. bank of america did a study on consumer debt and found that 30% of bills are being paid late, but in that study, this came out on tuesday of this week, the bill everyone, 91% plus pay on time is a phone bill, even ahead of mortgages or utilities. the cell phone bell always gets paid. i bring it up because you mentioned the economy. is that a sign that the iphone and apple may be truly recession proof? >> i think we have to be careful about interpreting that, because it is less about, and apple's case, they're paying the bill. the real driver of the economics iphone sales and that

is a proactive choice for people to go out and upgrade their phone. if they upgrade at a lower rate going forward, that will material impact at apple. they still elect, by default, or as a positive choice, to pay their bills, that is good for the carriers. doesn't necessarily mean that is good for apple because apple is about selling a new hardware device, that is the principal driver of that. >> got it. so sometimes i'm thinking the monthly payment is also the cell phone payment though. used to buy the phone and then pay the monthly verizon or whatever or xfinity bill. now everything is lumped and mushy into one. is or anything you are worried about going forward? >> it is certainly true that the bill is lumped into one. typically what happens, particularly in the u.s. but increasingly more globally is that a consumer will buy a phone that is on sums can't some kind of payment plan but

it's usually over 24 months is you will have a bill from your wireless provider and might be $80 or $90 per month and $50 is for the phone and $40 is for the service but what happens is that you pay off your phone within 24 months and then your wireless bill would go down from $80 or $90 per month suggest the service component, which is $40 per month. that is the point at which consumers have to say, i want to upgrade to a new phone. i want to trade this in. at that point, that is really where apple's economics ultimately get impacted. apple receives effectively from an accounting perspective, all the money when a phone is ultimately purchased by a consumer. but the economics are most contingent on the fact that

consumers choose to continue to upgrade at a rate which is about every three years or so. if that expands and moves out because consumers are feeling a little more pinched, that will hurt apple's economics. similarly if they contract big time. that is similar. >> so i have so many questions. where are we in that cycle because let's be honest, phones east hills last five or seven years now. if you take care of and don't care about a slightly better camera or slightly better chip, you can keep your phone now for a lot longer than in years past. where are we in that cycle and talk to us about the services and business which has been booming, is bigger than many businesses' primary business. like when it wraps you went all these things. where do we stand on the services side? >> so, i think where we are in consumers replacing cycle is

the most important driver of apple's economics. what we have observed over the last 10 years is that, as you suggested, replacement cycles are getting longer. they've gone from roughly 2.5 years on average to roughly 3.5 years on average. really, the big question in the next six months with the stock is, how does the iphone 14 cycle go? so the iphone 14 will be released in september and the question is, how do consumers respond to that? do they upgrade at similar rates that they have been recently? or do they upgrade at slower or faster rates? what we observed is that in 2019 and 2020, they were not good cycles for apple. the iphone x and i from 11. the 12 and 13, the last two years were very good cycles so consumers were not upgrading to the 10 and 11 and apple's economics were little slower. but the 12 and 13, a coincidence with the pandemic, but are the

purchasers already upgrade over the past two years and particularly with the consumer pinch could operate upgrade rates below are next year. >> the stock has been red-hot. we appreciate you being up here with us here at "squawk box" and we really appreciate your views. coming up, tom farley on the market earnings and policy coming out of washington that could impact your investment. an office worker versus work from home. should those required to be in the office get some sort of special benefit? there are companies willing to do that. that and more. (shelf falling) the aflac pre-pain show. aflac! paul is about to suffer a shelf-inflicted injury. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills.

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ucl's the ucla and ucsc in the big ten. objects, tom farley will be joining us right here in studio. you are in studio. in the next hour, scabbards capital -- >> coming up 8:00, we have anthony scaramucci, talking bitcoin, the markets and more. were seen markets continue gtoo higher. the bulls are sharing the barriers out of the way. maybe it is because of tom. maybe it is because of tom. we will talk more about it

you're a funny guy. ( golf balls being hit ) oooh that's nice. that one definitell. c'mon, get in. ehhhh, i'm good. suit yourself. oh no, no, no, no, no! ( tires screeching )

several major chinese state owned company say they are voluntarily delisting from the stock exchange. includes china life insurance.

just to take a look at the impacts of the publicly listed companies, we are seeing the pressure along the board and a bunch of chinese tech companies. tom farley is the founder, chairman, and ceo. the former president of the u.s. stock exchange. what is going to happen? the stocks trade as if there is a real possibility that they are going to leave. >> let's start with the five that announce they are leaving for sure. economically, it is a nonevent. the shares trade very little here in the u.s. the institutional ownership is lower than this. they trade more with the hong kong listed shares so it does not matter. symbolically, it is very important because this is china saying these are gone and the next batch to go are alibaba, that would be a big deal economically and symbolically. i think what you saw this

morning is that we will not see any chinese ipos here on the new york stock exchange on the nasdaq. people around the world have built businesses and have said, we wanted to list on the new york stock exchange because it is credible. the market cap is $50 billion. the next closest company is china and hong kong combined. not only is it symbolically important in terms of credibility, but you come here because it is where the money is. this would hurt ali baba. this ould hurt mother china, but this dispute may end up being intractable and he very well may see the companies pick up and go home if the negotiation does not improve. >>, just to start investors here or exchanges here? if you are going to be chewing your nails because ali baba

with all of its volume i go away? >> i'm sure the near stock exchange is involved in the discussions i'm sure they're clued into the conversation with the s.e.c., and also with congress. it is worth $300 million, $400 million, held by american investors. it's messy and destroys value for the shareholders. the stocking change will is quite a bit of volume. quite a bit of volume associated with that. it is important. that said, the reason why people want to list on the near stock exchanges because of the rule of law, because companies can be inspected's over the long-term, to maintain that gold standard, you need very high standards and this is a

balance between investor access and the market protections required. >> it's about auditing and accounting. investors being able to access company information, which beijing does not want the u.s. necessarily to have. that is the concern. do you think ultimately that it goes? >> yes. this trajectory, yes. but everything, the tension is heightened on a daily basis between the u.s. and china. witness nancy pelosi's visit to taiwan. that could clearly change. it could come if something is formed between the chinese regulatory authority. but i don't like the path right now which is white is sending it down another 3%. >> you mentioned the ipo pipeline from china's probably frozen at this point. in terms of growth for the exchanges, how will that impact them they no longer come to the

u.s. the percentage of chinese new listings over the past two or three years have been very small. it will not have as much of a near-term impact compared to the sure the year prior. the companies left both today, $2 trillion in market cap. so, it will make a dent. it will not be the end of the world but it will make a dent. >> when you're running this, it is good to see you. when you are running it and met with delegates from major chinese corporations, was the top of mind? what were some of the the things that they were concerned about with regards to listing that may or may not have been different? >> i walked in that morning and the first i saw this morning, they were gathered in a room and we had a lot of pageantry

and they said we're building this company for 1 million years and will be listed on the newark stock exchange for 100 years. they talked about the great attributes and why he chose it and white was a wonderful place. there was not a word of political tension or the potential that he would ever have to dual list. guess what they have done? they have prepared to list on hong kong very clearly they are preparing to do list if they need to and it saddens me a great deal because i think back that there would be greater economic ties between china and the u.s. in a productive challenge feels like it is unraveling. >> a lot of companies. >> and i jump in on that? let me follow up quickly. he said i don't want to associate them. i met him when it was a private

company. it was at tavern on the green it central park. the biggest personality in the world. he just went away. he literally vanished. people do not know where he was. step down unexpectedly, banishes. people worried about his safety for couple months and then pops back up and was stripped of everything. is there a lesson here? the communist party of china is your business partner when you go public in china. >> the definition of rule of law looks very very different in china than it does the u.s. and that is why this tension exists today. the debate that melissa touched on it, couldn't go in and fully expect, inspect chinese

companies and they say that is not how we operate in the u.s. is saying, but that is how we operate. if as a foreign company, we want to lister, we want to make sure that your company is not a scam or a sham. there have been a number of problems the chinese listed companies here in the u.s. with respect to the accounting, so this is a rock and a hard place. so i was optimistic that they would find some way through. this morning, it is feeling a little less certain because it was an economic nonevent but a symbolic very big event. >> a lot more to come. on that topic, while many companies are encouraging employees to return to the office, and we mean encouraging with air quotes, the high cost posing a challenge. is a morning commute gone for good or will that video be use the uesday after labor day to sit in traffic, once again. ken griffith spent $1 billion on florida real estate making him the biggest single

investor in florida real estate over the past few years. robert frank was on a boat. tracking the latest purchase. i would be grinning if i were you. this is star island. he bought the white house behind me for $75 million. we will tell you why he plans to tear it down and what else he is buying and building here in southern florida. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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he is putting more money to work. robert frank going to the break on a boat. good morning. we have never seen a real estate shopping spree quite like this in southern florida. the white house you see, that

was purchased by ken griffin in december for $75 million and that was the fourth property he bought here on star island and he spent 100 main dollars altogether, he spent $175 million on five acres. the plan is to tear the house down and build a new house on all this property. the new home for citadel is across the bay over on rickel. the company has spent $600 million on a new vacant lot. a temporary office building and an apartment holding and leases on 100,000 square feet for the workers to stay in as they build the new headquarters and north in palm beach, ken griffin has spent four to $50 million on land to build a new home there. that will be over 25 acres. that is bigger than mar-a-lago. he got approval to build a 44 five -- 44,000 square-foot

home. he said that is for his mother. they spent over $1 billion recently on south florida real estate. the brokers always love him. he is a broker's best a dream. he is a market maker and he raises all the comps. >> no comment from ken griffin are citadel on these purchases but he said in the past he likes to buy iconic, rare, one of-a-kind properties that his family will live in for years. i'm trying to do the math on this. it is easier $100 million on a brokerage on a real estate agent's commission, even if it is 4%, that is a gigantic payday. he's making other people rich. they have a lot to say on this. >> i spoke to him yesterday and

he really underscored a lot of the points that you have already made. they are building an iconic office building and break ground late 2023 or early 2024. he sees this and i see this as a competitive advantage in terms of recruiting talent. it might be misty eyed as the citizen of the city here in the north, that we are losing a great business like citadel. that we are losing businesses like that in new york and in chicago, they lost the business. he was early and right on the miami trend and he is doubling down. >> it is great to see. and certainly there is sadness in chicago where they will lose 300 employees. he has clearly gone. there is no love lost between him and the illinois governor but in new york that the big lease on park avenue with the

new tower going up. they have not canceled that. has most expensive home in america right off central park that he spent $240 million on and he bought a house in the hamptons probably for eight or nine figures around covid that he has not sold so he still has a presence in new york. there will be a lot of citadel workers and security workers in new york, but a lot of the growth will be here in florida. he said there is so much optimism here in south florida that is going to be great for him and the business. coming up, if you live in the tri-state area and are planning to return to your office in new york, your commute is about to get much more expensive. we will show you the numbers and debate whether returned to office is worth it. posh mark reported a loss with increased marketing but sales were better than what analysts had expected. it is down by 1.4%. don't forget, get the best of "squawk box" in your curated daily podcast on your favorite

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let's talk about the hottest topic out there for millions of you and that is the return to the office. many companies are encouraging, i am winking, encouraging you to return to the office. the high cost of gas and other expenses posing a challenge. the commuting cost for new york city could spike even more by the end of next year. this is no and you need to hear it if you need to commute to

manhattan. there is and imposable to institute a congestion pricing model. in other words if you drive into manhattan, you will not only get the tools on the bridges and the tunnel but as much is a $23 toll for congestion. according to many surveys and bloomberg analysis, if you live in central new jersey like a princeton area, it will cost you all and $120 per day to drive into manhattan. let's talk more about this. editor in chief joanne is now a yale university lecturer and a cnbc contributor as level well as alan. here is the thing. before times pre-covid people were doing their commute. a lot of people hated it but they did it. many people saved tens of thousands of dollars a year now

being asked/forced to go back to the office and they view it as a de facto pay cut even though they never had that money really to begin with. you see where i am going? it is a very sticky situation for many employers. >> it is a hugely sticky situation and the real trick here is how do we create, we haven't figured this hybrid office out at all yet. we are still in the very early stages but the big issue that employers will have to deal with is how do you entice those people back into the office and not only that if you have some people remote and some people commuting in, what you have to be really careful about is not to create a dual class citizenship where one class of workers gets more pay and more benefits than the other. one of the things that people have been talking about is should there be some sort of stipend to help you pay for these crazy commuting costs

that you feel like a pay cut. i have to say an overall stipend like a general here's a check, again you can have the dual class citizenship to where it is essentially a pay cut to the people who are staying at home. >> but joanne, it was a pay raise. they didn't ask -- it became a raise because the pandemic came out of nowhere and suddenly everybody was sitting at home. it was never really the race to begin with. >> what i am saying is if you give some people just a blanket stipend, here is $1000 for you for your commutes but this other class of people doesn't get it. so one class of people gets more money, what i'm saying is it actually might make sense to have a reimbursement policy. if you work five days or two days a week for if you only occasionally come into the office, perhaps there could be

a reimbursement for your commuting cost to help take the sting out of its. the proposal you are talking about in new york for lower paid workers, they are saying that you will get a tax credit if you make less than 60,000. you would get a tax credit that would make up for the increase so that would help somewhat. but i do think this reimbursement would make sense with some sort of income level. the head funders are not going to need that. >> joanne, if you can find a worker making under 60 grand a year that drives into manhattan, i will buy you lunch. joanne is right about this to a class of workers, i get it because there will be a lot of resentment. why can he or she stay home, but i have to drive? only about 20% of americans have ever telecommute it even during the pandemic. essential workers, grocery store, they schlepped it every day. i hear the dual class workers

that is an argument, but i think companies are probably going to have to get tough here. >> i don't know about companies getting tough. the labor market is an ultimate free market situation. so really it boils down to leadership. we have been doing different things for people forever when it comes to compensation and rewards. we have a huge compensation consulting capability talking about this every day to clients. if you are a leader and your people are facing issues related to return to the office, i don't even know if we call it return to the office. why don't we say how we work now because return to the office assumes that there is a necessity for that. it is leadership. what do you do for your people that are encountering more expenses? what you do for your people who may be saving money by not commuting? you do what makes sense as a leadership to you. you come up with a strategy and

you execute. it is no different than any other business back to that you have to address as a leader. bottom line is know what is happening, what you want for your company's culture, come up with an approach for dealing with it, listen to your people. we all talk about listening to the voice of the customer. the customer is your employee in the situation. listen to them, do what is going to work for them and you will have high engagement and be an employer of choice. there are no rules. we have to do -- >> doesn't this discussion go away though in short order? the chairman of the federal reserve has told us that we will see higher unemployment. as that unemployment goes higher, doesn't this whole discussion go away and we no longer treat workers like they are unicorns because they won't be, joanne. >> that is a great point, melissa. we are such a tight labor market now. the employee has the upper

hand. if that goes away, if we come to a point of higher unemployment then suddenly the employer now gets the upper hand. i want to make a point that goes to what brian is saying at the very beginning of this conversation which was about the employer trying to get people back to the office in the market that we have right now. i do think it is a huge issue that we are seeing that we sort of know for cultural reasons, for mentoring reasons, how important it is to be back in the office. there doesn't seem to be a specific reason for the employer, for the employee. it seems very arbitrary. i was talking to the top executive about one of our largest companies who said we are trying to get people to come in three days a week. i said why three days a week and the person said we want to them three days a week. i said that is really not a reason. if you are listening sitting

there at home, it seems very arbitrary. you need to explain to people what you will be doing and why it is essential that you be in the office for that reason. >> alan, good to see you. i have taken advice from you my whole career so look into your crystal ball. what does this look like? what does work from home look like? do we say what is that going on or do we say no this is the new normal? >> so hybrid is here to stay. paris covid work has become frenetic. if work was an engine, we would have been at 7000 rpm. it was a bad situation. one silver lining from covid is a gave people permission to get worklife balance of some sort and by the way listening labor market, higher unemployment will not change the game. we have a massive shortage in the country and higher unemployment will not take power away from employees. we will never have enough talent to fill the critical

jobs needed because we are still short. think of unemployment as a speedbump but the secular shift is talent is in control. it is the sellers market. remote is here to stay. you better think about your employees as customers. listen to their voice and as a leader, do what will help them want to become part of your team. >> alan and joanna, really good discussion. we could probably have this every day especially with $100 a day commuting into manhattan. coming up, we will check on crypto. whether or not the worst is over. coming up next. plus the inflation reduction act. later on this morning, we will speak with texas congressman and his thoughts on that bill.

stay tuned. we are back right after this uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

futures pointing to more gains.

the longest weekly winning streak since the end of last year. we talked to lawmakers in washington getting ready to take on president biden's inflation reduction act. maybe a signing as early as tomorrow. democratic lawmakers close the deal, top priority for the white house. have we already seen a crypto spring? wrapping up a big week for digital commodities. final hour of squawk box begins right now. >> good morning and welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. we are live in times square. i am melissa along with brian. don't worry hanging out with us, ceo tom farley, welcome.

>> thank you. >> how are we setting up for this last training day of this week? we are looking at green hours across the board. s&p 500 up by 16. treasury yields a little bit higher from where we started the week it still relatively tame. the two-year note at 3.20%. >> here are some of the stories that investors and you all will likely be talking about today. fallout from a fight over us desires to see if audit papers of major chinese companies as five chinese companies say they will de-lift from the new york stock exchange. these are major companies making that announcement. they include china life insurance, shanghai petro chemical, the aluminum company of china, more than 1 trillion in market mac. electric truck and suv maker --

will keep it's for your guidance for deliveries in place but the amazon and companies told investors who expect a larger loss for the year that it previously said, lower capital spending. the second quarter posting sales of $364 million above estimate, also slightly smaller than expected. it had about 98,000 net free orders for its truck and r1 s suv at the end of june. back in may, it said it had over 90,000 preorders. two restaurant stocks going opposite ways to show you the tech company toast surging after it raised its full-year earnings outlook and a record number of new locations were using its technology. you scan the menu and pop it up. restaurant software maker losing a third of its value

this morning. the company issued a weaker than expected current quarter as well as full-year revenue outlook. down 33% right now. >> that is one thing i really miss about you brian. let's talk -- >> i'm sure you mean genius. >> mike joins us. just under 90 minutes away. >> interesting spot the market has found itself in. the s&p 500 kind of lost a 1% pop in the morning but did settle at relatively firm levels around 200 and getting a little bit stretched in the short-term but also at a point where it is almost regained. about half of the total loss from the entire decline from january, pretty simple story we can tell about this. right around here, we had a

panic. both look a little less scary in the short-term. people needed to chase it a little bit higher as we have gotten to these levels. we totally broke that down. is there another one that we might have to keep in mind? it brings us right in that area. there is a little decision point to happen on the s&p 500 as valuations rebuilt again toward higher levels. take a look at crude oil. this is an interesting trend as well but is developing. yesterday crude bounced a bit. it seemed to keep equities in check so we are obviously on alert for anything that looks like something that will be a return back to the highs but that is now a downtrends people are watching and maybe we are capped here in the 90s. gauge of risk appetites, rebuilding, high-yield debt has been very strong. you had credits spreading out quite a bit. this is the high-yield against

the russell 2000. this is over six months. you can see the cadence is similar. so it just tells you maybe we got a little too negative on some of the riskier parts of the market. what is obviously the big question? >> i was talking with the -- which you were saying just before about the 50% retracement from their market lows. he was making the point that that is to the penny the level of the 150 day moving average. is there any added significance to the close at or above 4231 because of that? >> i'm sure there is in the sense that everyone is aware of it and it works in two different directions. if you are betting against the market and you felt like you were very defensive and it clears that level, that is when you would say okay i have been wrong and let me move to the sidelines. on the other hand if you are

still entrenched with this idea that longer-term this market has not quite accounted for what is to come in the economy, it is a good spot to shorts. that is why you have these clusters of activity and maybe the s&p peeked above that level. >> it sounds like new dress, gold dress, what do you see? >> all right. thank you. new developments on that fbi search of former president trumps florida home. we are hearing from trump himself. >> we could hear more later. former president trumps lawyers have until 3 pm today to decide whether or not they oppose unsealing a search warrant that details what specifically the fbi was looking for more lago on monday. attorney general garland said he moved to unseal that search warrant as well as the inventory of what was found on

monday. and brief remarks yesterday with no westerns taken, garland defended an unprecedented move by law enforcement sankey personally approved. >> there are however certain points i want you to know. i personally approved the decision to seek a search warrant in this matter. second the department does not take such decision lightly. >> according to nbc news the us government serves the former president a grand jury subpoena in the spring to procure classified documents stored at more lago with which federal officials met to discuss. shortly after that meeting, the officials requested better security where the documents were stored. the former president says he was cooperating fully and the government could have had whatever they wanted if we had it. the question now is what changed in the last two months. someone familiar with the

document says there was more at more lago than first retrieved. report in the washington post suggested documents contained nuclear weapons. the post report has not been independently confirmed. >> coming up, the house gets set to vote on the inflation reduction act. that will be the last stop before president biden's desk. we will talk about the central impact. thy aruc on the come back. we will ask him what is the driving up of prices caused by. you are watching cnbc.

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welcome back to squawk box. a great start to your friday. dow futures up 111 points. nasdaq a little bit more. the s&p 500 up 10% in just one month but a nice little run for the equity market. >> definitely. it has been a week of crypto news. and asset management giant tracks. going. talking about whether these

headlines indicate we are merging from the crypto winter. anthony scaramucci, founder and managing partner, good to see you. >> good morning. >> the last time we talked to you, one of your funds -- i guess the flipside of this anthony is are you starting to see inventor interest once again because that would seem to be a real climb that crypto --? >> yes but the longer answer as the liquidity reenters that release, that suspension, that is good news there. it was what i said if you weeks ago. i want to caution people to see through the current environment. you are getting better than expected inflation data. before i came on this morning, i was looking at the fourth quarter 2019 gdp numbers, the inflation and unemployment numbers. if you just stop and

think about it, we hit pause, the pandemic created this havoc. we inducted a lot of money into the system that caused some inflation and obviously had the supply chain disruption but you could very well get back to that fourth-quarter 2019 which was a very strong economy, low unemployment and benign inflation. that is probably 6-12 months away. i think the market is starting to realize that. crypto belief is most of the levers are out of that system so you are seeing a very strong recovery. it is a reminder to investors not to pullouts, fight their own fear, stay paste and stay long-term. we had a 45% bounce in our quaint fund since i last saw you. obviously since the bad news hits, that seems to be the bottom line. we will have to see. >> great to see you. i'm curious to get your thoughts. >> good to see you too. >> i'm curious to get your thoughts about the coin -- bit

coin versus --. do you have as constructive a view on the alt coin universe as you do on bit coin? >> we have a very large position and a smaller coin called --. we think that has award-winning technology. we also like solana but your question about bit coin and --, those are our two largest positions as it relates to bit coin. we think the improvement, the increase in applications, and the ease of transactions on bit coin, you will see a lot more commercial activity there and of course you have the merge coming which will lower the transaction fees on that network. a lot of traders are probably buying that rumor. you are all familiar with this. they will probably sell on the news of that merger which will

happen in mid-september but i would caution people not to do that. these are great long-term investments. in the next six years, if we are right, if it coin goes to $300,000 a coin, it will not matter whether you bought it at 20,000, 60,000, it will really not matter and i am cautioning people, the future is upon us. it is happening sooner than i thought. the black rock news, i am looking at that saying okay finally larry, i think we are seeing the institutional demands. otherwise, he would be setting up those products and teaming up with coin base. when this stuff happens, i want to remind people there only 21 million bit points out there and you will have a demand shock with very little supply. >> it sounds like long-term you are a believer but short term there is a trade that will likely happen. is the quaint fund trading around that at all? >> actually know.

i am trying to condition clients to just stay in there. there is no reason for us to create that friction. you and i know melissa and i see you talk about this on fast money, if you are out of the market for the 10 best days, you reduce your return from like a 7 1/2 return to a 2% return. that is the overall stock market. i don't want to start hurting the portfolio based on emotion. you are up 45% since we last spoke. we did nothing but hold the positions and hold our discipline. that is the message i am trying to send to investors. see through this. there is a lot of short-term people, a lot of research departments and different wire houses hat have knee-jerk reactions to things and they get overly emotional. we are trying to tell people to just relax. we see a pretty optimistic scenario. >> you mentioned a modestly

improving inflation landscape. let me draw on your political experience and ask you during a two-week period that we are using the passing of the chips spell and most likely this afternoon the passing of the inflation reduction act, number one is this an inflation reduction act or a climate bill and number two how does the combination of these two bills and the $700 billion we are spending impact review one way or the other on inflation? >> you know this. that is an environmental bill packed in inflation and they are trying to -- inflation after the horse has already left the barn. it will not really help the inflation issue. what will help the inflation issue is a reconnection of the global supply chain and more supply out there. the reason why we have always said the inflation will not transitory is not systemic, it is not 70s like because it is supply chain based. once the supply chain

reconnects, there is just unbelievable amounts of technology. your own company, tom, there are unbelievable amounts of technology that are deflationary long-term so that bill would not be consequential one way or the other. i love the chips bill, however. i do think the united states, unfortunately, we have entered a period where we are going to still have globalization but we need to protect ourselves as it relates to manufacturing and we need to protect ourselves, certain core things in our economic and national security interest as we try to figure out and sort through the diplomatic issues related to china and other potential adversaries. the good news for us is that is a bipartisan commitment in washington. it is one of the few things these guys agree on. i am super happy about that. >> do you see the rise we have seen in crypto as related to government spending or is it more function of the nasdaq

going up? >> it is certainly coupled to the nasdaq right now. you can see direct correlation. bitcoin is being viewed as a risk asset. i have been on the air for the last two years and explained it to people. it is just not big enough. it hasn't been fully adapted to be an inflation edge. it is still being perceived right now is a risk asset but if you really understand the fundamentals, if you dig into the technology behind the block chain, you recognize that it will be impossible for us not to use the stuff in the future because it will create massive economic efficiencies. you will be taking middle men and women out of transactions, this massive -- mechanism. it may become a store value and inflation edge right now, it is connected. it is connected to risk assets at least for the time being to the nasdaq.

>> in my day job, i am in a proposed merger. i ask myself the question a lot which you were alluding to which is what is the potential future utility of bitcoin in the everyday economy in the future versus today? and does that in your mind impact the value of bitcoin in a dramatic way or no? it is just a stored value and that in and of itself is fine ? >> that is a question none of us really had the answer to so you would have to do a masking theory analysis on that. if we wreck the fiat system -- i know you are. that is why you are as successful as you are but if you wreck the fiat system it is possible that something like bitcoin could become standardized and be used as transactional currency because in a decentralized nature of it it is not subjected to the whims of policymakers or

politicians. if we get the fiat system right or start to correct it, then i think bitcoin ends up as a store value. it could be a 15-$20 entity. some people call it digital gold. i think it could be in your smart wallet and you go back and forth between it and a stable coin or a digital us dollar or something like that. the future is bright for bitcoin. help rights depends upon what happens in the overall comedy. i am hoping frankly the federal reserve, the us government, we get these things right. bitcoin ends up as a stored value asset . my friend has said this we had dinner a few weeks ago. if we are wrong on fiat currency and it gets wrecked, that is not great for the overall system. i think these things can be cohabitating in the ecosystem, the economic system if you

will. the bitcoin ends up in my mind as a 15-$20 asset. i think that is the best outcome for the economy, best outcome for overall assets and long-term economic close. >> anthony, great see you. >> happy friday, happy weekend. >> coming up, retail earnings from america's biggest companies, we will get a preview of what to expect. stay tuned. squawk box is up next. wahoooo! (vo) you can be well-groomed. or even well-spoken. (man) ooooooo. (vo) but there's just something about being well-adventured. (vo) adventure has a new look. discover more in the all-new subaru forester wilderness. love. it's what makes subaru, subaru.

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coming up here on squawk, a new read on import prices. that is a couple minutes away. we will bring you the number and the market reactions. squawk returns right after this. take the world by cloud. accenture let there be change.

welcome back to squawk box. we are live with some of the last breaking news of this

rather aggressive week. we will be looking at import export prices for the month of july hitting the wires. a drop of -1.4% down 1.4%. this is huge and it does underscore that there are some benefits of a stronger dollar. take petroleum out, it gets cut in half to -7/10 of 1%. this is really crazy because at the beginning of the year, we were up 1.5 in the series. this was the highest ever. stunning reversals whether it was inventories or a strong dollar. let's look at year over year import prices, less than 9 1/2 expected and in the rearview mirror, we had 10.7 so definitely moving a bit down from there. let's look at import prices year-over-year. export prices month over month down 3.3%.

if you look at march, it was up 3.9, the highest since 89, another stunning reversal and finally export prices year-over- year up 13.1%. the high watermark there was 18.7 and that was may. that does underscore big drops we are seeing. whether the fed is going to acknowledge what certainly looks like peak prices in the rearview mirror or not, i cannot tell you but the market continues to move in that direction even with some of the bumps in the road. the notion that we are coming off three-week high yield closes. tens and 30s here. in the end, we continue to see a lot of inventory reduction going on and definitely some countercyclical trends that we are now seeing with respect to pricing. melissa lee, back to you. >> futures not really reacting too much to import export price

data. we are using the s&p up by 21. steve, rick had mentioned the difference where import prices were at the beginning of the year versus now. the dollar of course since then, the -- is up 10%. what is your take on the data? >> i think that in the family of inflation data, the import export price data, the forgotten stepchild. it is an important one because we have talked all this week. we have seen a better-than expected consumer inflation data. we talk about factors that will continue to elevate inflation by wage gains coming down the road, the supply chain not completely cleared. this is one factor that is going to down the road continue to reduce inflation and the reason is this. it takes time for prices to adjust to the change in the

currency and we have had this very strong dollar overtime. we are using the beginner of it. the first factor is the stronger dollar which is across the board from our trading partners. also the idea that china has opened up so there should be this flood of goods that should reduce prices. also i think some change in shipping costs could show up in the state as well. so this is something that will help down the road as contracts come to reflect the change in the currency. some of it is immediate and some of it takes time. rick said one more piece of inflation data we will be watching. it is not the sentiment number. i don't think ted really cares much are people happy, angry, sad or whatever. i think they care about what inflation expectations are. we will get that inflation data and earlier this week monday, we got the new york inflation data and it showed across the

board decline in expectations for inflation. they are still too high when it comes to the near-term but when it comes to the three-year and the five-year outlook, all of that is trending downward. i think the fed will be watching that. are we at peak inflation? i think it will wait until september to see if we have a trend going here, not just one months worth of data just to make policy. >> that balance was up 4 1/2 billion yesterday afternoon. >> i did notice that, rick. i did notice that but it is coming down. >> not really too much. it really is the mystery of the internet fed universe. >> there is securities held by the fed. you can take a look at this. >> in the end, balance sheet

reduction is probably something that pushes interest rates up and the average guy all he wants to know is which categories, no? are you shifting things around with securities? no. they want to know is it bigger, the same or smaller. >> this is live television. >> they are charts, rick, of data. there was another chart pointing lower. how can this be? >> 8.88 trillion this week. last week it was a .874 trillion. i understand. we get it. ultimately certain areas moving down but as an aggregate it isn't. i am just saying. that is all. >> rick, because this is live television i'm forced to talk

about things that i'm not quite fully reporting but here is what i can tell you, there are several settlement dates out there. there are settlement dates that happen twice a month on treasuries and they happen on a forward basis on mortgages. if you look at and i had this chart i didn't prepare because i wasn't ready to talk about it, if you look at the for purchases of the federal reserve for mortgages, they are coming down. the settlements will happen down the road. let's talk about another thing. i don't know how much time we have. ask your buddies -- no disrespect, ask your buddies in the bond market what they really care about. i think what they really care about is net issuance. >> size matters. >> [ laughter ]. well put my friend. net issuance is actually not going down because of what is happening in the treasury issuance inside of this thing. so the conspiracy harris end up being ripe for the wrong

reasons but that is the fed reducing the balance sheets. net issuance is not going up because what is happening on the treasury side because it would do so much deficit spending from last year and because of some other internal stuff happening with the treasury account. >> we will leave it there. for those of you cringing at home don't worry, we are all friends. rick and steve, good to see you. >> coming up, is the inflation reduction act actually going to reduce inflation? or put an ad to inflation for a few more years of spending. a question that has been dividing the -- that is all ahead of a -- expected to pass at around 3 pm eastern time. you could always watch or listen to it live. we are back with a good market they.

stick around

welcome back. the house is expected to vote on today and passed the spending and climate bill known as the inflation reduction act. it is a big win for many democrats worried about the midterm elections. despite the bills catchy title, nonpartisan analysis in places like university of pennsylvania say the bill is actually unlikely to do much to lower inflation and could actually raise inflation in the near- term because it is adding spending here. again this is the repackage build back better trump down.

if we are arguing about the fed and talking about inflation, the reality of the bill is this. they will sell it on reducing healthcare costs and maybe it ultimately well. i'm not knocking the bill. i am simply telling you what is in the bill. the medicare negotiation with the top 10 prescription drugs does not begin until 2026. then in 2027, it goes to 15 drugs. so we could talk about inflation reduction may be in the bill for healthcare but i hope that anybody who interviews congressman, republican, democrat, whatever knows that a lot of these provisions are years out. >> i think you know my thoughts, the democratic leadership and house themselves

did themselves a disservice by naming this the inflation reduction act because americans are very smart and they understand policy. this clearly isn't going to reduce inflation. i think the congressional budget office itself said this will do nothing for inflation so it is just frustrating. >> yes. >> listen -- >> with a whole lot of taxes that will disproportionately impact the lowest -- plus the carried interest tax evaded the bill. that is what it is. it is a climate bill with a lot of taxes on the lower end. >> i don't want to be overly political on one side of the other. the republicans do it also. naming bills has now become like a madman advertising exercise. you could just say world's best coffee, i don't know if it is the world's best coffee. >> we passed the inflation reduction act right? it is a win.

>> we will see if it is a when when it comes time for the midterm elections and inflation is still stubbornly high. we will see how that plays out. >> go ahead, tom. >> i was going to talk about two of the wins that the bill is raising revenue, the 15% minimum tax and the 1% buyback tax. that 15% minimum tax, those companies are just going to pay the tax. they will pass it through in prices and that is a regressive tax on that bottom --. i think we should be transparent about the impact here, what it means for wealth and equality in society. >> also the irs disproportionately audits lower income people for whatever reason probably because it is easier. so adding the irs staffing, a good thing while they can go after the rich, historically four and five audits is people

making less than $100,000. >> let's talk about this with texas democratic congressman. you probably already heard our conversation. there are a lot of good rings in here, a lot of money spent for climate but is this really and inflation reduction act given that things don't kick in four years? >> i hear your conversation and i'm laughing to myself a little bit. these are historic accomplishments allowing medicare to negotiate the cost of drugs. the lower of some drug costs capping out -- for folks on medicare. my mom is a retired texas teacher living on a fixed income. that really matters for her. lowering folks energy costs really matter. having a semantic debate about what we are calling the bill underlines, undermines the significance of it and the accomplishments in this bill. i think it is a really good bill and what we had been fighting for decades to try to

get some of these provisions past to lower emissions by 40% by 2030 and this is historic. >> congressman -- >> i hear you. my mother is also on medicare, also survived cancer, is a high school dropouts, and this will help her and my dad hopefully a for the medication, the many medications that she is on. that said, if you are negotiating price controls on one side, you know that big pharma, you know this is just going to raise the prices for those of us on private insurance. if politicians on both sides by the way, republican and democrat, if you guys had the answer to solving healthcare inflation, you would have solved it 20 years ago. >> listen if you think that negotiating drug prices is not going to help lower costs, you should take that up with the va. we have seen it saves money when you are able to negotiate the cost of drugs. let's also be honest here, these are drugs that don't have a market competitor, that don't

have a generic holding down the cost. these are drugs that really have no market mechanism to keep that cost under control. so i think it is a little bit disingenuous to say that negotiating drug prices in some areas for the highest priced drugs with no market control is going to raise costs for everyone else. i don't ink that is true. that has not been held up by experts who have studied this. >> i came into this conversation with a concern that the bill could potentially raise the average energy cost, but you just made the comments that it will lower the energy bills for your constituents or in your case, your mother. how does it lower the overall energy bills when you take into account the disincentives along with the incentives? >> a good incentivize or is having a more efficient delivery of that energy. but overall saves money. it also is of course good for the environment. some of these provisions like

dealing with methane are critically important for us if we are going to save overall costs. i think that part of the conversation here has to be the cost of climate change. in texas, we have experienced so many climate disasters in recent years that have cost us tens of billions of dollars to recover from. so having a more efficient great, highly more efficient homes, i think that is an overall savings and it is the right thing to do. >> representative, you are in texas. obviously, you guys have had your share of storms. i have seen that the damage firsthand and we understand the climate issues. texas is growing so fast. you feel like the bill doesn't have to invest in the grid? part of texas, by the way america's problem is that even as we warn about climate disasters, everybody keeps moving to the coast. people want to live on the

water. i have seen water go up forefeet in galveston texas. by the way, javier i 35, we will have a cocktail there. i agree. are you making enough investments in the grid to transmit the power that we will be creating? >> obviously, there is always more i would like to see done and some of this is around battery technology, retaining -- and transmitting it will be one of the biggest challenges for us but in texas we have already seen this forking. we have the highest share of renewable energy on our great. we are the state with the most wind energy. our solar has to be dramatically increase increasing. we have had these alternative energy sources to try and draw upon. so having a diverse energy policy, i think it is the right way going forward. that is why also support

senator mansion who is a critical author and many ways of this provision. i think there is more that can be done but lowering emissions by 40% by 2030 is a really big deal. it helps us lead the world as well. we account for only a percentage of the overall emissions around the world. we have to encourage others but part of that is leadership and >> appreciate your time. thank you for coming. that is the next interview. thank you. appreciate it. have a nice day. coming up, the friday morning opening on wall street. we are live at times sarque. at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve,

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welcome back. next week is going to be a big one for many big retailers. some of the biggest players reporting their quarterly results. courtney joining us now with a preview. are you going to sleep at all this week? >> i don't think so. it's not looking likely. it is key. we have to figure out how some retailers are managing the cost in the business, like

transportation. it is all still high, even with this week's look at inflation numbers. walmart is out tuesday. that is the first report for the new cfo, john david rainey. more details on how inflation is changing and how shoppers are spending. for the long-term, those analysts remain positive on how to navigate even challenging conditions and the changing consumer friends. target reports wednesday. it, too, issued an early warning. they are responding to changing consumer spending. target is seen as an optic and target returning to stores, so is that continuing? experts want to know if target has seen the speaking or the elevated costs which they have laid in detail our evening out, either. us look into the american homeowner as rates rise. lowe's, higher diy, share, and

outdoor inventory in this summer could be a bigger risk for its quarter than for arrival home depots. we have already gotten some warnings from the retail partners inventory and paint results from sherwin williams. we are also going to hear from the polls, tapestry, tjx, and footlocker. we are going to get a lot of insight next week on a lot of different areas that the american shopper is shopping, working, browsing. we will see. >> we are going to see. we will let you go and we are going to find out next week. courtney reagan. a big week on the american consumer. we have a little over a half hour before the opening bell on wall street. a good day on the street of dreams. it has been a nice run. up 10% in just 30 days. armani is cio of lafayette college, go leopards. chris, i have spent a little

bit of time up there at easton, so congratulations on the gig. i appreciate you joining us. how are you positioning the lafayette endowment right now? >> the lafayette endowment is a really long term investment outlook from the standpoint that we need to generate 89% of returns, so these types of opportunities we have to take in stride. and position the portfolio. the equity risk in the portfolio remains relatively high, and that is really the only way you can have the returns that you meet. >> it sounds like you are saying, in a fancy way, krishna memani, that you are still a believer in stocks. >> i think there is no reason to be not a believer in stocks. that is overall why we have an air pocket. i think the rules in the economy is actually looking reasonably well once you go beyond the current inflation episode. that is very different from how things look after the global

prices. i think the outlook for stocks coming out of this current episode is actually better than it had been over the last 10 years. >> is there any part of the market you are starting to look at a little more? maybe starting to love? real estate, art, bonds. anything like this right now,? >> for the longest time, most folks focused on returns while not paying much attention. this has really changed. if you look at the market, most of the market is actually yielding higher than 4%, which is significantly higher than had been the case. long rates have rallied some, but i think the outlook for bonds over the next 10 years. again, looking for the future, is actually quite good. much better than it had been over the last 10 years. >> that is amazing.

when you say bonds, are you talking about treasuries? >> i am talking the entire gamut of bonds. for investors such as ourselves, treasuries. we are more focused on credit markets and i think the outlook for credit market, both public and private credit, again, coming out of this inflationary episode, i think that is a pretty good point. i think the outlook for credit in the long-term is actually quite good, because we can get decent returns. that wasn't the case for a while. >> krishna, are you monitoring the coin and considering dipping your toe into the water in any small way? >> bitcoin is, for us, more speculative than what we can swallow at the moment. i think, from a longer-term perspective, that the case for it is here, and we continue to invest with managers while

building the infrastructure. the case for bitcoin, i think, is more speculation. >> krishna, the lafayette leopards endowment. have a good time up there in the hill in the east, krishna. see you soon. >> thank you very much. cs next time you are there. we will go to the crayola factory and drive down larry holmes boulevard. i remember my lafayette history. thank you. >> thanks. melissa as we know, my brain is a hamster wheel of garbage. >> i was going to say a font of knowledge, but sure. hamster wheel of garbage works, too. tom, quickly, what do you make of this? looking at a positive open. >> i am still concerned about inflation. it feels like we are a comp country with one problem, which is inflation.

spending money and taxing. as long as we stay focused on inflation i am very optimistic. >> have we seen the peak? >> if we don't screw it up. if we don't spend too much money and print too much money. >> great to see you, brian sullivan. our thanks to tom farley. have a great weekend and make sure to join us next week. squawk on the street is up next . good friday morning. i am david faber with leslie picker and mike santilli. we are here for this nice friday off. let's give you a look at futures as we get started on the last day of trading of the week. we are set up yet again this week for a higher open, but we shall see. let's get to our road map this morning. it does start with sustaining sales. reports indicating apple asking suppliers to build as many of its iphones this year as