the relationship doesn't turn off and a second but if you see those sales, the relationship changing giving that acquisition of samsung, a lot of pressure heading for oled. >> oled was up about 3% today but flat on the week. thanks very much. all right, that does it for overtime. have a great weekend. fast money begins right now. right now on fast wall street, the snp and nasdaq writing a four week string winning streak right into the weekend. the nasdaq nearly 16%. where do we go from here? was speaking of high flyers, kathy west arc etf sizzling this summer. later, retail on deck, a venti size winning streak for starbucks and taking an option sized bite out of apple.

we start off with a major milestone for the market, closing near its highs of the day, climbing another one .7 percent to round out its fourth winning week in a row. the nasdaq is also recouped more than half of its losses from this year's monster selloff. all other sect's were up this week with energy leading the gains. what is in store for the markets? jeff mills, you were largely bearish on the panels last night and here we are, celebrating this winning streak and huge run into the close. >> i am definitely a battered bear at the moment but i'm not ready to change my tune just yet, and i will tell you why. obviously, we are talking about this 50% retracement level. there is that in the downward sloping 200 moving day average .there is plenty of resistance right above us so i think the

next days are going to be really telling. you can point to some important names for the market as well approaching that downward slope on the 200 moving average. it is still concerning that it is the speculative stuff that is leading the way. when did the tenure top? it was on june 14th. when did arc bottom? it was on june 14th along with everything else. i don't think it is a coincidence. i think we are in this relief rally driven by rates and i think that is what has me cautious right now. if you look at the tenure, it is higher that right now than it was. i think i was looking at coin today. looking at the last four days down 10%, up 7%, down 10%, up 9%. when these names that have performed the best recently are flailing around like that,

obviously not trading on fundamentals, it still leaves me with caution. >> this week we were cheering backward looking data on the consumer which gave enough confidence to the market that may be the worst is behind us and yet, next week we are going to get much more real-time rates when all these retailers report. >> i think next week is going to be really important that we are at this time right now we are finally getting good news that actually is meaning good news and the stock markets. over last week we got a really strong jump. cpi came in lower than expected, the producer price index lower than expected. i think all of these things together are a positive sign that we are seeing inflation peak which may mean the fed does not have to be as aggressive with the rate hikes. >> i know we have never had a situation where we had this 50% retracement and then traded down to test the lows and i rolled my eyes, just like you

when people say yes, but this time is different. from a historic context, we are in uncharted territory in a lot of ways. we have never had housing prices the as high as it pertains to median income. we've never had this amount of liquidity in the market. we've never had the speculation we had on the institutional side when it comes to cripp no. we also have not had a pandemic since 1918 or 1917. none of us can remember that. so, there are a lot of things that are different coming into this that will set up for us to say okay, i can understand from historical context this may not have happened but there are a lot of things n play that might make this time different. >> so does that mean this time is different the market should go higher or the market should go lower? >> i'm saying the fact that we have not retested lows after this 50% retracement -- if

there is a time for it to happen, it will likely be this time. >> sam stovall makes the point that in the past, 50% retracement cost and i know this because you are all over fibonacci levels, your favorite technical indicator, but we have often retested those. we have never made a new low, but we have retested lows, so what do you think closing above the 4231 level means for the markets? >> let's throw in another layer of fibonacci. when you come back to the 50% retracement, people who follow fibonacci sell between the 50 and the 618. that would probably line up with where jeff is looking at, the 200 day moving average being resistance in the overall market place, but i have a problem with that step. i don't really understand that step, to be frank.

if you look back at the january high, forget right now that we are in august, if you look back, there are plenty of times we rallied off recent bottoms more than 50% only to make new lows because there was that june low. who says that the june low is the carved in stone that we are moving off the fibonacci is? that is the beauty of fibonacci's. you look back to see where you get that retracement. right now you get that retracement at 4231 all the way up to let's call it 4350. that should be the cell zone. so, whether or not it retests the lows were not remains to be seen. we had what they perceived to be a great cpi number, which maybe is peak inflation. midterm elections.

i know they are not a political agency or sect of the government. they're supposed to be standalone, but he doesn't want to screw that up for democrats, so maybe you see a 50 basis point raised versus a 75, and that will be enough to keep the market on track. >> you are positing that the fed is going to make rate hikes political? >> i don't think they're going to make rate hikes political. i'm saying if you don't know -- i think that if he is on the fence -- first of all, i am no fan of the fed and no enemy of the fed. i am agnostic when it comes to the fed. i do believe that it would behoove the market and the fed to raise by 50 basis points. the fed has a history of overreaching. i don't think they're going to overreach in september, knowing what they have coming down the pipe for them in the midterms. >> whether or not 50 is for

political reasons or just reasons because we are starting to see maybe signs that inflation has in fact peaked -- good point in terms of the midterms. there are around the corner of this point and after labor day that is what we will be focused on -- does that enter your thought process in terms of the environment we will be in, investing wise? >> the only thing i could point out that may be interesting to the viewers -- we actually had a webcast earlier this week and i highlighted this. i don't know why people talk about uncertainty being removed from the market but the market has not been down following a midterm election basically ever. take hat for what it is worth, but it is an interesting statistic. when the track record is that good, maybe we pay a little bit of attention to that. i think whether it is 50, whether it is 75, whatever the case may be, we remember that the fed is still tightening. they may slow down, but in

terms of them stopping or doing a hard of it, i can't see that happening, especially with forward-looking inflation expectations. they actually continue to creep up. they are higher than they were in june. these are things the fed is paying attention to, and i think regardless of what they do going forward, they have already created this growth issue while fighting the inflation issue. that is going to have an impact on earnings going forward. i keep coming back to that, and i think it makes it fundamental difficult for the market to maintain the rally we have seen. >> hi multiple stocks and a tear since lowe's here, look at the market up 40% since then, they are still down sharply on the year. can some of the markets more speculative names keep up the winning streak? >> this is the epicenter of both the win and the loss. if you look at ark, this is the thing that was a 10 bagger off of its low but then lost

78% of its value and now is up 58 percent from an absolute low to high right now. there is a lot of speculation. my view is that it is overdone. let's look at a table. here are a few select names. you look at the russell 3000 and just sort by best performers from the absolute low on june 16th and eliminate small caps. carbonic, amc. look at the names. these are names that are popular and those are massive, just up at those numbers in perspective. ark is up 53 from low to high. these are almost double that. does this continue? here is the chart of ark. we are now back to a difficult level for some overhead and supply comes into play, but most importantly, look at the third and final chart. this is the all dated chart for ark. you have a $15 low in 2016. it is a 10 bagger to 169 and

21. you lose 70% of your value in the now it has thrown back to the underside of the trend line and typically, a 50% of move back to the undersigned of trend line that you broke is a rally to where supply emerges. sellers get their money back and then whoever nailed it is itching to book their gains. >> carter, i have a question. why does this chart look more vulnerable to you than some of the other names that have made huge runs off of the june lows, like apple, for instance. now it is entirely a different circumstance. apple loses 28% from its high, maybe 30 and then it is back to very close to all-time highs. when you lose 78% of your value, which things like amazon did in the.com it takes a long time to recover, so this is

just the timing if it is even able to go higher, whereas apple is close to an all-time high. >> taking a broader look at the market, you think maybe markets are rare? we had this conversation this morning and you said to me maybe a lot of assets like yields in stocks are about where they should be at this point. what does this all mean? >> if rates were going up for a long time, and then they re- rated, oil up and then loses from one $30-$90 a barrel or stocks plunging and then re- rating up, we have had a lot of volatility, a lot of directional lose. we have not had any quiet activity this year and i think we're going to go into a quiet period now, which is to say sideways or down.

>> steve, what do you think? a quiet period? >> this has not felt like a quiet period, but i think when you look at it through the prism of speculative stocks, in this marketplace, when the risk has been to the upside in the last couple of weeks, what happens is people who have shorted stocks run to cover. they have the most to lose. so, you start to get -- it is very indicative of every rally to have the most shorted stocks be the ones that lead the rally. that always happens in every rally. we just don't know if it is long-lasting and it remains to be seen. >> i raised my eyebrows when carter said we are heading into a quiet period. carter has made tremendous calls, but we have seen very light volume in the month of

august and we are heading into a period where everybody is going to come back after labor day and you don't think there is a potential for a quiet period when we have a full force coming back to work soon. >> it's true. i think the idea of a quiet period could make a little more sense and we are still several weeks away from the next fed hike. i guess i could see it from that standpoint, but i agree. i think ultimately a lot of people are waiting for some higher volatility and higher volume days to call this full capitulation. whether we need that or not, i don't know, but it may not be a bad thing to have more volatility before we head off. coming up, he earnings season might be winding down but there are some big names on the calendar for next week. shares of the iphone maker have rallied 30% off their lows. traders think it is time to fade this name. we will find out why and how they're doing it.

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comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. welcome back to fast money. there may be some relief in sight for the consumer. the latest data from the university of michigan showing consumer sentiment topping in august.home depot, walmart, target among the big retailers

on deck. what could these reports indicate about the strength of spending and inventory levels? >> i think all eyes are squarely on walmart where they have got to show that they have got a handle on inventory management, logistics, consumer behavior and then the readthrough in terms of what are consumers doing. are they continuing to trade down and look for replacements or are they now trading up and spending money on apparel and things of that nature? >> the good news from the retail perspective is that there are reasons in the back half of the year to spend money. our target ceo already talked about that. he talked about back to school. he talked about people having halloween parties again, dressing up in costumes again, so it is all back. >> yes, and then we have the holidays around the corner.

we have a lot coming up here but i think it will be really telling when we see both walmart and target coming out and i think walmart will be a little more interesting because they have a little more of their product for less discretionary focus. target, 60 to 70% of their products are discretionary, like clothing and electronics. if you see people going from goods to services, not even just their spending, that they be reflected more by target.i think when we look at walmart we want to see if people are still going to walmart. a lot of these issues might be short-term. they might have some of their supply chain issues figure out are going to have to see the report next week. >> how do you think concerns about consumer higher mortgage rates are going to play out for the likes of home depot and lowe's? >> it is actually really interesting. at face value, it is like you i want to own a home depot or lowe's with housing slowdown?

on face value, it is like no, you don't want to own home depot or lowe's, but i looked at a chart and we can throw this up now. i thought this was fascinating. we have home depot and walmart appear, walmart maybe not as surprising, given the product mix courtney just talked about, but all of the underperformance relevant to the s&p 500, particularly home depot, occurs before recession actually hits. you see them under form before recession but the average performance for home depot in the last receptions has been 30%. sort of interesting here, if you think we're going into a recession even with the housing slowdown, history tells you that the underperformance occurs before the actual economic contraction so depending where you think we are in the business cycle, maybe you don't run from the hills. >> perfect segue.

mr. recession, what do you think? >> jeff started off saying less loans are going to be taken out. i think that is the critical point you want to look at. there are going to be less mortgages and home equity loans taken out, so that does not really act as a tailwind to a home depot or lowe's, so i would not be a buyer there. i would be a buyer of high-end stuff, ralph lauren, capri, and a buyer of lower end of that deals with oversupply. coming up, is it too early to be talking about pumpkin spice latte season? maybe, but this year, fans of maybe, but this year, fans of starbucks 'favorite fall flavor ♪ may have to change the name. right after this. ♪ ♪

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potentially bad news for pumpkin spice latte fans. reports that starbucks is planning to hike the price of the fan favorite by $.80. a starbucks oaks person issued fast money a statement saying we do not have any details to share on our fall menu. the starbucks shares have been on a winning streak lately for eight straight weeks, its longest run since 2013. this goes to the point that at what point do consumers start pushing back on price increases. >> i think the consumer who goes to starbucks and buys coffee is not the one that really cares.

that sounds like it is a pretty decent price hike, but most people paying with apple pay have no clue, and i'm not joking when i say this. they have no clue what they are actually paying for anything. if they have discretionary money and they're walking into a starbucks i don't think they're going to care. if it is a regular coffee, i think people care but as you have something that is a little kitschy and going into the holidays i think people will be spending that money. more importantly with starbucks, it is running into resistance at the 200 day moving average. i would be more concerned with that than the 80% price increase on new coffee. now you obviously have not heard tim seymour and his rent because he buys regular coffee at starbucks and has for decades at this point and is complaining -- >> that's what you just said. he has bought it for decades. >> and he is still buying it. at some point the consumer will push back.

>> i think that is a question of when, because i think so far starbucks has done a good job of increasing their pride is and they have the rewards program. anybody who is in the rewards program tends to spend two to three times at starbucks than those who are not in there. i'm not a latte person. i'm not going to pay the extra $.80 for that but it seems like a lot of customers might. >> stock was up today and i expect a lot more of a gap. and activist investors that is dedicated to helping move the needle. >> autozone. ap think people want to fix, not by cars right now. >> walmart. we have earnings coming up here and i think there has been very little positivity riced in, yet it might be worth a short look. >> charge.had quite the run.

i would be looking at stock. >> that does it for us on fast money. options action is up next.

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options action. strategies from the streets that is traders.

it's friday and that means it's time for options action. >> tonight, apple has had nearly a 30% run since the middle of june. carter werth thinks that is overdone. he will show you where he thinks the stock could slide back to. then despite a rebound in lumber prices and its stock, taking home depot to the woodshed. plus a different