it is 5:00 a.m. on wall street here is the "five@5. are we about to enter a bull market for stocks or will this leave investors heartbroken again? china central bank cutting interest rates big money and big oil. aramco with 90% jump over big profits. and bitcoin doing something we have not seen in months. the morning rbi has a random but interesting stat on apple

stock buyback. you will hear it on this more than morning, monday, august 15th here on "worldwide exchange." good morning, good afternoon or good evening. welcome from wherever in the world you are watching i'm brian sullivan thanks for joining us. let's kickoff your trading week with the check of markets and your money stock futures are mildly lower on this monday down .30% in the red dow futures off 137 points all this coming off a really nice few weeks for stocks. in act, last week, all of the averages were up 2.5% or more. small caps were the big winner. russell 2000 up 5% last week. 18% in the last month. something to watch

bond yields are flat hard to believe, but true. that is the same level that the 10-year treasury was back in mid-april. all this fed stuff and sturm and we are back to the levels of spring in bond yields. let's check energy and natural gas. crude oil is lower holding above $90 a barrel. aramco making more than $48 billion in net income last quarter. natural gas, by the way, down a few ticks. in europe, it is above $60 u.s and the best performing group of all last month ethereum cryptocurrency bitcoin topped $25,000 over the weekend. the first time since early june. back below that at $24,000 and change

ethereum lower overall, up 62% in one month wow. a couple of global market stories. japan's economy expanded in the second quarter the 2.2% gdp fell short of estimates. in china, the people's bank of china cutting two key interest rates in an attempt to boost the economy as they continue to lockdown over covid zero policy. let's see how the markets are doing with joumanna bercetche in the london newsroom. good morning >> good morning, brian as you mentioned asian markets are reviewing the data that came through overnight starting with chinese markets. we had the weaker retail sales data weaker industrial output to set the tone shanghai ending below the flat line two points weaker. hang seng and hong kong down 1%. one development that you touched

on is the chinese central bank cutting interest rates for the second time this year. the pboc lowered the lending facility on $400 billion of loans to the financial institutions by 10 basis points. how much that will move the needle they did cut interest rates when all other central banks are hiking as for european markets, for the most part, we are trading positive today minors and basic resources and commodities are struggling on back of the weaker chinese industrial output. the ftse 100 is up .10%. cac 40 up .20% the german index is flat one name we are looking at there is hellofresh. the meal kit company is right at the top of the stoxx 600 in general, starting off the

week with a very positive gains with green on the boaard behind me brian. >> joumanna bercetche, thank you very much. now to the top corporate and economic headlines including more american lawmakers going to taiwan. pi pippa stevens in the house >> reporter: elon musk has made 3 million cars at the shanghai factory. the ev maker ceo tweeting congrats giga shanghai on making the 1 millionth car. a group of u.s. lawmakers arrived in taiwan yesterday for the two-day trip it is led by senator ed markey the trip follows house speaker

nancy pelosi's visit earlier this month it comes as military tensions with the island and china remain high back on wall street. earnings season coming to say cl a close. more than 90% of s&p companies reported so far and of those names, about 78% have topped profit expectation reports overall s&p earnings are on pace to have grown by 9.7% year over year with much of that coming from the energy sector. >> energy. something we talk about a lot. pippa, thank you now let's get back to the markets and your money and growing hope that stocks really did hit a bottom a couple of weeks ago. on friday, the s&p 500 closed at 4,280. the index recovered or retraced more than half of the drop from

the highs. why does that matter it may not check this out in a note earlier this month, btig points out that since 1950, there has never been a bear market rally that had a 50% bounce back and then went on to make new cycle lows. that is random but interesting let's talk about it with robert teeter he is at silver crest asset management robert, good to have you back on past performance is no guarantee of the future or whatever it may be on wall street. that is an interesting stat. >> thanks, brian thanks for having me on again. it is an interesting stat. i think we made a lot of progress off the lows here part of that is some of the worst-case scenarios, the probabilities are declining. we see that with the change in tone and inflation where the data has been better than expected >> maybe some of the panic with

the economy and panic with the fed and panic around whatever it may be that people are panicking this week, like elvis, that seems to have left the building. >> that's right. we have a lot of things coming up to see the signals from the fed and remaining earnings coming up. i think the worst-case scenarios are off the table. when you see cpi and ppi potentially peaking last month, that takes the bad scenario off the table. there were a lot of fears on the economy. we, like others, monitor the economy. atlanta fed pointing to economic growth they have a positive estimate for third quarter. that is a turn around. quite a bit of changes it is not just a change in sentiment, but fundamentals getting better on inflation and light at the end of the tunnel there. >> yeah. 8.5% inflation amazing it is interested good

because it did not rise. i get the directional change or the delta on wall street i'm not talking about airlines where are some of the best places to invest right now, robert >> we think it is still important to remain balanced the difficult thing is predicting timing. the cycle is moving quicker than most people expect however, as you point out, inflation is still high. it might be coming in the right direction. the numbers are coming in hot. energy or industrial materials we still have a bit of runway in front of them. the economic growth is slowing down it says you want to be with companies to be with organic growth we have been trying to neutralize that bet with a balance between the cyclical sectors and organic growers. >> so, in your view, technology which is the big winner the last decade, remains a solid place to invest >> i think it is still attractive when you are in a

world with economic growth declining and slow technology still has positive to be line growth and earnings global one of the things we pointed to is the economy was in a slow growth rate heading into covid longer term. we still think that continues. a lot of noise is caused by the crazy cycle the last two years when we get to the full other side of it, after all of the aftershocks, it is still a relatively slow growth world for the u.s. not negative, but slow that means you need to go to places where you find growth >> if it is not negative, robert, maybe slow is the new good because it is not negative. we shall see that's the world we're in. robert teeter, thank you have a great day >> thank you we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange." when we come back, from wall street to washington, clean energy one of the biggest buzz words of

all. now the manchin spending bill is law, where can money be made dan pickering is in the house. he has ideas coming up. check out the early pre market winners and losers. dow down 133 oil, crypto. stocks glad you are up. happy monday we're back after this. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." good monday morning. apparently there is still big money to be made in oil. aramco posting a 90% jump in profits. the net income was $48.4 billion. rbc notes the cash flow from operations was incredible $59 billion. saudi oil giant wants to raise j output to 13 million barrels a day five years from now. that is oil and gas. let's talk about clean energy. inflation reduction act looking to benefit those who invest in renewables rooftop solar panels and energy

efficient appliances all this is part of the effort to quickly transition america to a cleaner future for energy. let's talk about what this energy landscape means with dan pickering. cio of pickering energy partners dan, i don't know if you just got up or stayed up. we appreciate it it is a big topic. we need to hear your views how much does this law, not a bill, it's a law, change the game for renewable investors >> brian, good morning it's a big deal. talking about $370 billion to clean energy power gets most of it. $260 billion to the power sector which we need. you jump start the economics with solar and wind and battery storage. this creates a lot of investment

and makes clean energy technology better. if we are going to hit net zero by 2050 or get close, we have to do things like this. this is a meaningful step in the process. >> good news there we are showing stocks sunrun and sunnova. many have run-ups. dan, companies are helping you put solar on your roof or battery to plug in the electric car you got -- not you, but rhetorical you in your garage, dan. residential solar is a tough business so far. >> it has been i think when you look at some of the things that come across through the act, it is making the economics of installing that rooftop solar better and at the same time, brian, you have rising power prices that are coming from traditional sources of energy m people will feel the pinch in

utility bills. nothing like europe, but it wh will impact here the ability to get off the grid, if you will, and supplement is more compelling than it has over the last decade. >> that is something you and i have talked about extensively. high power costs sticker shocks this winter you think it might drive them to say i have to get off the grid maybe not environmental. i'm getting crushed by utility why is sunnova a winner? you go with an icln etf and throw fate to the wind, so to speak? >> i think that a sunnova or sunrun specific play will see acceleration in revenue. stock is up a bunch. that is the challenge right now. the past month has put between

50% and 150% on a lot of the names. icln etf is a big piece of it. you have solar and other clean technology it is a bit more diversified the key question here for investors is if you buy some here, will you buy some down 15% or 20% on the pull back in the market or sector if you can answer yes, these names look interesting here. >> you are in texas. people don't realize that oil and gas and texas is the biggest producer of renewable power. hard to believe, but true. they need the renewable power to power refineries for oil which i find ironic. that said, dan, you mentioned at the beginning of the interview the grid getting power to where we are. are those the ultimate winners it doesn't matter how much power you make if you can't reliably get it to

companies or people, it doesn't matter. >> that's right. brian, this is going to be a 20 or 30-year process where renewables are a bigger part of the electricity generation for the u.s. and globe if you look at where we're at today, 20% renewables in the u.s. by 2030 the goal is to get to 30% by 2030 and 50% by 2050 we need a better system. we need to support grid expansion. we need the ability to store renewable power. batteries will marry t matter we will have to rebuild a lot of what we have built or expanded this is going to be a meaningful part of the u.s. economy >> i guess that chime sounds the end of the interview dan, 20% renewable overall

we are jealous we are at 3% renewables in the mid-atlantic and new jersey and pennsylvania area. di dismal dan pickering. love having you on thank you. >> thanks, brian. all right. still to come, when a new 1% tax on stock buybacks might mean for apple and maybe the broader market the answer is random but interesting, of course it's coming your way >> announcer: today's big number 1.43 billion that's the projected population of india in 2023 according to the u.n. making it the most populous nation on earth. the global population is expected to top 8 billion people later this year.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get a check of headlines outside of business and the sad story from israel. we have phillip mena with more >> the fbi with a warning that threats to law enforcement spiked since the search of donald trump's mar-a-lago. threats are occurring online threats of possible targets like home addresses and

identification of family members. secret service is hardening the locations at the white house the fbi headquarters and field offices are taking steecurity steps as well. brian, you said this in jerusalem. eight people attacked. five americans and four from the same family. the suspect is a palestinian resident of jerusalem turned himself in one relative of his has been arrested salman rushdie is on the road to recovery he is awake ago talking two days after being attacked on stage. his son said, quote, his life changing injuries are severe, but his feisty sense of humor is in tact. he was stabbed an estimated 12 times on friday as he was supposed to give a lecture on the freedom of speech. the accused attacker, a 24-year-old, faces second degree attempted murder and assault

charges. he pleaded not guilty. law enforcement officials say the suspect was inspired by iran extremism. iran denied any involvement in the attack back to you, brian >> of course, iran putting a $3 million bounty on rushdie's head decades ago. phillip, thank you. coming up, president biden preparing to sign the $430 billion tax and climate bill into law why may it hurt car sales? follow our podcast it is available on all of the major podcasting platforms it is called "worldwide exchange." check it out we're back right after this.

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the american shopper in focus as the biggest retailers set to roll out results and forward guidance. washington to watch. president biden is about to sign the spending bill into law why might the climate bill hurt electric car sales why the tax man could be coming for you even if you are not rich the irs back to crackdown on three types of people. i'll tell you about it on monday, august 15th, here on "worldwide exchange.

welcome or welcome back. good morning 5:28 on the east coast things for getting up early and kicking off the week with "worldwide exchange. we kickoff the hour with your markets and money. stock futures are not showing momentum coming off the last couple weeks it has been a nice run for equities right now, not seeing that dow futures down 156 nasdaq right at the same fair value is implied up the markets, maybe not a coin flip, and not far off that all coming off the major averages of 2% last week alone with that rise last week, the s&p 500 has now gained back half of the losses for the year still down, but gained back about half we're in the right direction small caps last week, last

month, really, the big winner. russell 2000 doesn't get a lot of love. up 5% last week. that index is up 18% in one month. in fact, russell 2000 on friday, closed above the 200-moving day average since all the way back on january 4th two stocks bed, bath & beyond and raycorp above the 200-trading day. crude oil is coming down a bit this morning over the weekend, aramco making more than $48 billion in net income crude oil is back below $90 a barrel at $88.80. in europe, a stuff story they continue to deal with heat waves and drought. the rhine river in germany, the

main economic waterway or artery of any kind in germany, now below certain levels which may make barge travel, oil, gas, goods, coal they need for winter, may make it impassible they are dealing with so much in europe natural gas there is $60 u.s and the spending bill known as build back better is coming into law as the smartly marketed inflation reduction act. president biden expected to sign the measure this week. many non-partisan analysis, and the government data suggests it won't do anything to actually re redu reduce inflation with that said it is here now we need to figure out what is in it the biggest spend is energy with solar, wind and nuclear. there are gifts to oil and gas

tucked into the bill neatly. particularly gifts to the pipeline companies the law has a huge provision for health care spending and capping prices on the ten biggest drugs, but that doesn't begin until 2026 let's talk about the law as well as what is next for congress and midterms with ed mills washington policy analyst for raymond james. his notes are a must read. ed, you make me smarter. i appreciate all you do working over the weekend thank you very much. i'm not trying to be mean to the bill the inflation reduction act. they could call it the green turtle act for all it matters. not a lot of people think we will have a lot of inflation reduction ability in that, at least not in the near term, until 2026 when the health care provision kicks in what are your take aways from the soon to be law >> brian, i think the biggest take away is that democrats are

in array versus disarray the way you describe the market right now, they had a nice run, but does it stall out from here in terms of the market it could be described to the political chances of democrats as well. in terms of the bill, compared to the expectations that they had set versus what's in it, it is a significant change. compared to what democrats thought they were going to be able to get done, as recently a couple of weeks ago over what is signed into law is a significant increase you highlight the health care provisions we discussed this at raymond james as a clearing event for pharma does this give uncertainty around prescription drugs negotiations since hillary clinton ran for president, does that get done?

we see a positive element with possible insurers as people's insurance is taken care of over the next couple years. you highlighted the energy provisions in the bill we will see later this year if congress comes back and removes the permitting barriers that even further accelerate the benefits to the energy sector, if that gets done on the by bipartisan basis after the election. >> we talk about energy transfer and $30 billion insider buy last week some insiders are optimistic about the pipeline provisions that may be in the bill with the secondary vote, ed, that they will have. i know a lot of democrats are angry about it, but they had to get things done. where does that pipeline permitting provision stand >> so, what's going to happen

here and this was key in getting senator manchin's vote there was a negotiation that manchin had on a bipartisan basis after the start of the war in ukraine with republicans. remember, he is the chair of the energy committee he had a whole package of what he could get significant republican support for he clearly is not going to get republicans to vote for that today before the election and especially after he didn't tell the full truth related to negotiations with democrats on reconciliation after the election, the plan is to have a bipartisan energy bill that goes through the senate that could get 60 votes that removes a lot of the red tape for the permitting process in the construction process for a lot of the large energy infrastructure provisions. as we are getting into the winter, and all of the concerns that you highlighted in europe,

that's a perfect time to have a market positive coming out of congress at a time when you didn't expect to have that come out of congress. >> all in all, net positive in the bill particularly for energy, ed? >> absolutely. energy is a big surprise and health care gets covered as this is a negative because there will be prescription drug pricing you highlighted it will take several years before that happens and limited to ten drugs. nothing prohibits people from establishing the list price. there will be more activity with m&a in the fpharmaceutical space and hospitals. >> they will make up the difference by charging private insurers more. ed mills, raymond james. thanks take care. on deck here on "worldwide exchange." your morning rbi and random but

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time for the morning r busibi stock buybacks were huge over the last couple years. if you think that is tv hyperbole, think again many announced buybackss it thi

year the value is more than $1 trillion you heard right. $1 trillion. not $1 billion the most ever. actually not by much buybacks have been around $1 trillion the past few years which has reduced the number of shares in the stock market by a lot. it probably helped fatten your returns as well. could that change? biden's spending bill has a difference on buybacks 1% it could make companies rethink the buyback plans or cut back all together it is one of the big money raisers in the law to balance out spending no company would be more impacted than the biggest company in the world arguably, the most important company to the stock market. apple. in the past ten years, apple spent or announced $500 billion on buying back its own stock

more than any other company by far. it is actually twice as much as apple spends on research and development if you can believe that check out the random, but interesting stat and tweet from charlie belelow. he announced $522 billion on buybacks over the past ten years. that amount is more than the market cap of 494 companies in the s&p 500. apple has spent more on buybacks than the entire value of 99% of all other companies in the entire american stock market by the way, apple still has hundreds of billions of cash on the books. amazing. why do you care? maybe you don't own apple stock or use an android phone. if you own any part of the overall market, you should care. apple is the top holding in

hundreds of funds or etfs. if it goes up or down, it moves the entire stock market. given the propensity for buying back stock, we will see if this has an impact on the overall market random but interesting. let's stay on the topic of ta taxes. let's talk about the irs and how it plans to use the $80 billion in funding to hire agents to crackdown on tax cheats. robert frank is here robert, this is the story the politicians don't want to talk about when they brag about their bill >> no one likes to talk about the irs. no one likes to have a visit from the irs irs hoping to raise $200 billion over the next decade from increased enforcement. most of the new audit attention will focus on three basic types of income.

pass through income. that is the largest. 40% of tax cap or unpaid taxes comes from pass throughs that are under reporting income pass throughs include partnerships and s-corps and foundations and sole pro propretorships a greater scrutiny as add the enforcement. the second is offshore transactions the study found secret offshore income accounts for $15 billion a year in unpaid taxes irs will hire specialists in offshoring to target those particular taxes finally, capital gains 75% is capital gains comes from

people with at least $1 million in income. collectibles are not automatically reported the audit rate for those earning more than $1 million a year has fallen 80% over the last decade. brian, with tens of thousands of agents brought on as part of the new funding. $80 billion over ten years these audit rates, especially at the top, mainly at the top, are going to start rising again. >> robert, it is also not just at the top here is the thing. a lot of scary headlines agents coming for you. the reality is newer agents or somebody who sends out a correspondence letter. it is a letter like we think you owe this i may have gotten these in my day. newer auditors focus on lower-income folks because the

returns are simpler. to do the ones you are talking about, you need a seasoned agent. you are going up against, no doubt, an accountant or lawyer or both. >> that's right. you go after the complex audits at the top which involve multiple layers of private companies and to your point, lawyers to fight this tooth and nail for years, they take a long time the return on investment to the irs at the top is on a dollar basis much higher than the bottom we know where the money is for the irs. it's at the top. that's where they will focus efforts. irs is easier and gone after people with the earned income tax credit in recent years as you point out, the rate has risen with the tax income issue. what the irs says it will do is hire agents that specialize in

these compleplex offshore audits hopefully that is where they put the energy and return. if they can find it. >> they are scraping by. they should go to puerto rico and check it out or portugal you know what i'm talking about robert frank i appreciate it. robert frank and i talking taxes. now to another industry effected by taxes and new bill electric vehicle market. inflation reduction act is sold as a climate bill. here is something you will not hear in a political sound bite it may hurt electric car sales because it does not permit the $7,500 tax credit of cars not made in america or over $80,000. that is many of them right now cnbc's mike whelan wrote about

it i don't think people realize a lot about this if you locked in a deal or buy a rivian and locked in, you are still eligible for that. for people new to the market, there are a lot of new hurdles for them to jump, are they not >> not just people, but companies, which is why we received a mixed review of the tax bill you have a $7,500 credit 70% of the vehicles on sale today won't qualify for it if you look down the road a year or two, none of the vehicles will actually qualify for it because of the reliance on china and where these minerals are coming from for the batteries. the automakers have been hesitant to support this until it got passed by the house we have to deal with this now. let's figure out what we need to do and what is the best plan of action to actually give these credits for our customers.

>> listen, i love this country, mike i made no shame of that. i like manufacturing here in america. i think there is an opportunity for renewables and electric cars to produce a bunch of jobs particularly in detroit where you are or the south the reality right now is with the ev side, a lot of popular cars that are not made here because they sddon't have the supply chain. >> brian, if they are made here, they cost over the threshold for the vehicles that are going to be included in this inflation reduction act. if you look at tesla or rivian like you mentioned or lucid or any new vehicle, they are not going to qualify because they cost too much. even versions of the f-150 lightning, the first ev pickup truck. it will probably not qualify for most of the models because of the price hike automakers and chevy bolt

probably will be once the minerals go into effect, we will see if that qualifies. put it in context. in the second quarter, about 6% of the market were pure electric vehicles we are not going to talk about vehicle sales plummeting for evs. it is a growth market. we are talking a reduction over the short to midterm of what people can afford or qualify. >> i know people are not feeling sorry for anyone who can afford a ford f-150 lightning you get 100 miles on the charge. you have to take the tow off to charge it. these are major hits to a market everybody says it this market must grow. i know he ppeople who changed tr

minds on a car it gets 100 miles per charge towing a boat? no thanks. >> 50% evs by 2030 that was a very optimistic sales target when you talk to executives privately or the trade groups maybe 40%. maybe. the survey of executives had it from 20% to 65%. this is still a very young industry and it this kind of reduction in tax credit keeps lowering the outlook for the evs. >> and 40 million americans don't have garages or a place to charge they are fast and fun to drive, but it this is the blow. they are still trying to figure it out one of the most read on cnbc.com i posted it. mike, i appreciate you coming on the show

thanks, mike by the way, go read his article. i'll repost it this morning. it is like i can't believe it. trying to sell electric cars and they do this stock picks. greg branch is your guest next on "wex. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those.

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welcome back i know it is summer and maybe you are so havevacation don't look away. stock futures down 139 fair value on the upside a huge number of retail earnings coming out this week and the fed meeting a month away joining us is greg branch at veritas financial. greg, i appreciate it. we got a little bit of a lull between now and the next fed meeting. retail earnings this week. what are you watching most

closely right now? >> i almost feel like we're back in january, brian. i'm out on an island by myself as everyone rushes to be bullish. let's set context. i it think we are in the middle the bull story artificially. second quarter numbers came in better than expected that gave rise to the first leg of the thesis. supply chains are better and consumer demand is better. the jobs numbers remain really strong no recession is imminent it is invarinvariable and the third leg is powell said he gave the green light for everyone to put risk back on because we have seen peak

hawkishness. his lieutenants have since been walking that back. i think we're in the midst of this artificial bull story and unless we see this really -- disastrous what >> we had a 50% bounce back off our lows from the year why do you call it artificial, greg a lot of people are feeling semi good right now >> of course they are. that's why i call it artificial. you have always done well by buying the end of the bad news story. that's why this is artificial. this is not the end of the bad news we are not past peak fed hawkishness. if you want to celebrate 60 basis points decline in cpi when food is powering, i guess go ahead. that might have been peak, but

does that change what the fed is going to do in jackson hole in september? it didn't. this level of inflation is what is disastrous. not whether 9.1 or 8.5 that it is not 4 or 5. it doesn't change what the fed will do. we are at the precipice. we are at the beginning of the bad news the recession has just begun to set in the consumer is just beginning to deteriorate >> you know, they talk about 0% inflation, greg of ofgreg it is like you gained 2 pounds for the month and suddenly it's september. it is only 8.5%. it could take years to get down to 2%. years. >> that's exactly right. in the celebration over the basis points, we lost sight of

that i would add to your point. that's on a 5.4% from last year. that's not 8.5% on a zero. that is 8.5 on top of the prior year the battle to really bring inflation in line which is good for the economy and consumer is at the early stages. >> i went to a national fast food chain yesterday, greg i got a regular hamburger. i'm not joking the thing was slightly larger than a silver dollar i posted a picture next to my car key. my car is old enough to still have a key that is shrinkflation. that does for us on "worldwide goexan." od luck with the burgers "squawk box" is next

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good morning stock futures pointing to declines at the open as we begin a busy week for retail earnings. surprise move overnight in china. the central bank unexpectedly cut two key interest rates in response to weak consumer and factory data we'll ask dr. scott gottlieb about the covid guidelines and what it means for return to office it is august 15, 2022 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq