Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 15, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

5:00 pm
october of 2002 over the next five years. that is really interesting. the dollar is extremely crowded. we think it provides opportunity for people who are willing to step into areas like the emerging-market. >> thanks very much for your time today. >> thanks, money. that does it for overtime. fast money is on right now. manufacturing and housing data here at home and disappointing economic numbers in china. the overall averages are finishing higher. hedge fund manager dan loeb also once more buybacks and cutbacks. later, still a time to buy?
5:01 pm
from paypal to netflix, the companies who have been crushing it. we start off tonight with a slow down shrug off. housing and data and manufacturing came in weaker than expected. the s&p is up 4/10 of a percent. the nasdaq is posting its highest numbers in a month, but with a slew of retailers posting more data on the housing market, can this momentum continue? tim seymour, back from vacation. you have been gone for
5:02 pm
i -- >> we had a not-great housing survey, and their economy needs to do some major boosting. we have all done this math. 18 1/4%. semi's are up 20.9% from july 5th. this is a dynamic that i think doesn't really we've been dynamics from what was a pretty good second quarter, but the cpi dynamics are what, from afar, what this market did. this is a market that behaves as if the fed put it in play. this is a market that is behaving like the market we knew last year. that is what is interesting to me. the positioning for the
5:03 pm
investor base i think for the past six to nine months has as much to do with the market rally is anything. >> from an interest rate, from an earnings perspective we are in a very, very different place. here we are sitting at these levels. we are about to get a more real- time rate on the u.s. consumer than the cpi that we rallied off of last week. >> we have all been doing this for a long time. this is not that surprising. if you thought the s&p was correct and it would be in the mid 3000s and it almost gets there, then you say you can get back to 4200 -- that is the way this stuff does. it doesn't line up with the data precisely. tim just mentioned q2 earnings. when you focus on the major names, the s&p 500 and the nasdaq, they were clearly better than many people had feared.
5:04 pm
when you brought in and out and you take out energy, there was not a lot of great stuff. there was not a lot of great visibility. when you piece it together with the data that we are seeing, you know, we are seeing inflation tailwinds. so, fine. so nobody is saying, mission accomplished yet. there is a lot more that has to happen. i think what is different also is if you think back to 2008 coming out of the financial crisis, china and what they were going to do as far as spending was really a huge tailwind. we don't have that right now. we don't have europe. it is not just the housing data that is rolling over right now. we also have a scenario where small business ceo competence is really low. don't be fooled by what the fact market has done in the summer after a sustained downturn like we had. i focus a little bit more on what the 10-year u.s. treasury yield is doing. it is really suggesting that we are going to be well below the sort of gross that people would expect with an s&p 500 that is
5:05 pm
raging. so, to me, i think i am more bearish on the stock market than i am with the economy. i think the market has shot too far too fast. >> i agree with dan on this one. i think what the market is trying to do is say, hey, federal reserve, we see the data coming out and it is miserable. obviously today's data was miserable. we don't think you can continue this rate hike cycle in the wake of or in the face of what has been really poor data. we are going to keep pushing the envelope here, which i sort of get. by the way, on the flipside of that, they have trotted out all kinds of people from the feds to write the opposite. inflation is still our main concern. those are the battle lines. i think the fed will win out on this one. in terms of having to continue this rate hike cycle, i don't think the market is going to like it. by the way, we haven't even started q2 yet, and that starts
5:06 pm
in september. let's see how the market reacts to that. we are at 4200 now but i think it is too much too fast. i think it is discounting everything the fed is trying to do. >> jeff, are you going to round out the caution on the panel tonight about the market? >> yeah, i guess so. we are all saying it in different ways. but i think the bottom line is that there is a catalyst for this latest market move. it is interest rates going from 350 to where we are today. it is the peak inflation narrative. i have been very negative for a number of months now. i will say this. the inflation peeking narrative is clearly a positive, right? it reduces the fears of a 1970s type issue. it reduces the fears of a very aggressive fed or a gdp contraction, which i think we do get. but what the fed needs to see is a sustained drop in
5:07 pm
inflation. they need to be convinced of that. they are going to keep hiking until that happens. i don't think they are going to see what they need to see until they hike us into probably a recession or at the very least a noticeable and impactful s&p 500 earnings slowdown. we have gone from 252 down to 243 for 2023 earnings. ultimately that is going to impact valuations. i don't think that given the fact that the fed is tightening, and employment claims are moving in the wrong direction, i don't know how high the multiple this market can carry. again, that is still what leaves me with a fair bit of caution here. >> i know we are going to talk with peter in a bit about recession or no recession. i think that the key here is that the fed's job cannot be done. they almost have no choice. i am not saying they will hike us into a recession, i am just saying that we haven't really slowed down the labor market. that is the dynamic that the fed has to really work on at this point. i think we have seen peak
5:08 pm
finished goods inflation. i will say this about the market. where we are right now is a function of where we thought we were going to be. second quarter earnings were much better than expected, but it doesn't actually mean that when you strip away the energy sector you add a three to 4% earnings contraction. for everyone who says, this was great, it was much better than expected. we went into this pullback in markets saying that there is no fed put in place. q2 hasn't even started. what happens to a consumer when you hike 350 basis points as fast as the fed has done in decades? i think that is really the key. we have all said this about the labor market. it is hard to believe that we didn't hit peak labor. we are hearing from every ceo these days and we are hearing from a couple companies that we are going to talk about later in the show that cutting jobs is what they want to do. >> we haven't seen the full
5:09 pm
impact. it is inevitably a side effect of what the fed is doing. we may think we are seeing some of those chutes right now, but we haven't seen the full impact. >> it might be good for marketing, too. prior to the pandemic with concerns about automation and what that was going to do to the job market that is already at a 40 year low before the pandemic, if you don't think that the lesson learned -- and we heard this from companies like airbnb, lots of different companies -- >> we have the balance sheet and the margin. >> that's exactly it. i think a lot of these companies invested in automation and invested in some of these processes thinking about how to do remote work, having less physical plans, that sort of thing. so maybe this is a trend we see over the next decade or so. a lot of those wage gains that we saw over the last year, year and a half were on the lower end. these were jobs that were going to be automated away. how many segments on mcdonald's
5:10 pm
did we hear over the last 10 years about you going in there and ordering from a machine? >> i got a chance to do it on the front line and learn how they -- >> to dudley's point, though, if you see unemployment go from 3.6 to 3.4% in the next year or so, that will be devastating to a consumer where they are seeing consumer credit go up and pulling away a lot of the physical stimulus that has helped a great deal to keep that consumer afloat. >> how would you say to trade or maybe don't trade? this game of chicken that the markets have with the fed? the markets are betting that the fed is not going to lead us into a deeper recession. we can float higher. >> yeah. that has been the right bet recently, without question. i think that across the board without 4200 was a foregone conclusion. this is now the overshoot. it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. even if you were to say $20 worth of s&p earnings, which i
5:11 pm
think is a pipe dream, now you have a market close to 20 times. i think the valuation is now flipped back the other way. by the way, consumer credit card debt in the united states is approaching $1 trillion for the first time ever. no bueno, especially if job cuts are coming. so i cannot wrap my head around the bullish scenario. that is counterintuitive to me in this environment. >> our next guest warns we are on a collision course with recession. peter is a cnbc contributor. peter, good to have you with us. you say there are three stages in a bear market. you say that we are only in the middle here. >> right, so the first one is valuation adjustment, which we have clearly seen. the second is the economic impact and also the earnings
5:12 pm
impact of the slowdown. third is when everyone throws in the towel. i can argue that we were religious beginning number two, where growth is slowing and we are seeing the impact on earnings. i think this still has a ways to go to work through. >> peter, so independent of what they are necessarily going to do, what do you want the fed to do? you are somebody who has been critical for a long time about the ed transitory language and other such folly. would it be great news to see the fed continue to hike and push us into recession? i am kind of teeing you up for the answer you might not want to give. >> i think powell wants to get the 3%, which we can still get, but with a 50 basis point increase in september. then he can calibrate it down to 25 basis points after. i don't think there is necessarily the right level
5:13 pm
that is going to get to some magic level of lower inflation, because we just don't really know once you get above three. when you look at previous rate hike cycles, it was lower and lower levels. so 2.25, 2.50. previously it was higher than that. but each successive rate hike cycle ended before the previous one because something broke. so now we start getting into dangerous territory where things are at risk of breaking. but the important thing, also, is this balance sheet reduction that has only barely just begun. i still like to separate out the interest rate increase -- the interest-sensitive part of the economy like housing, that we saw today. qt will have a direct impact on financial conditions and the markets. i think melissa made a great point just before, saying that the markets are really playing a game of chicken with the fed. maybe the fed is going to be
5:14 pm
raising interest rates soon because inflation is topping out, therefore you have got to buy. i think people are not being sensitive enough to this economic slowdown and what it is going to mean for earnings and profit margins. >> hey, peter, jeff mills here. based on the environment that we are describing, how would you tell our viewers to be positioning right now? are you looking to play the momentum of what we have seen lately? is it more on the value side? where do you think the opportunity is? >> it is more on the value side. i am still pretty bullish on commodities, generally. acknowledging the pullback, but still very bullish on the supply side challenges. i think that is still going to outperform growth. the valuations in gross stuff, even with these declines, are still expensive where there is a lot of forgotten value from
5:15 pm
lower expectations already embedded in them. >> peter, great to hear from you, thanks. dan? >> i love peter's work and i have followed it for a very long time. if we are done going down -- let's say we have another 3600, 3700 or whatever, and everything olds, right? the same stuff that held us in the last leg of the bull market is what is going to lead. i want to perceive value. i think it is the stuff that is down 60, 70, 80%. some of the names we have been talking about over the last few months. not value. what i am saying is that i don't want to go to energy. i don't want to go to financials. i want to go to the stuff that was working really well in 2020, 2021. the stuff that i think is going to be around in three, five, 10 years. >> jeff, you still make the
5:16 pm
case for -- as defensive? >> yeah, i think so. if you are thinking about financials, or industrials, or materials, that is not what is going to pop if inflation continues to go down and the fed gives some signs of slowing down. i think you want to focus on those priority growth things. i think you are going to see a reduction in earnings expectations for next year, even with the earnings reductions we have already seen. i think you want to be in the names that dan has said that are going to maintain some semblance of growth. i think that is where investors are going to be looking for value as we move into the end of the year here. we got a news alert out of viking global. >> reporter: hey melissa, yeah, viking global is one of the firms we have seen making significant dives. more than double the state of that stock, bumping up the
5:17 pm
steak by more than 1000% to hold $344 million. boosted its stake in boeing, and nearly tripled its stake in dollar general. we also, just moments ago, saw filing come out. that has been the story so far with the renewed interest in disney. the firm did get out of its disease state, at least according to its filing from the first quarter. now we are seeing 1 million new shares of disney during q2. that is only about $94 million. knowing dan lowe and his activism, it is likely that the firm holds minimum exposure, or they had purchased more disney shares in the six weeks since these filings came out.
5:18 pm
nonetheless, there is a new disclosure on disney, which makes sense since we saw potential changes and suggestions at disney. melissa? >> just to be clear, the third point filing is as of the latest quarter. as i understood it, he had accumulated a stake after earnings which happened in july, right? >> right, right. he clearly acquired something in june. he did start to at least dip his toes in in june, according to the 13 s filing. the earnings may have boosted from there. we are not sure what form of exposure he had. it is based on what has probably been disclosed so far. >> leslie, thank you. leslie pick her covering all the 13 x flooding in at this point. i feel like the world has changed since june 30th, so these guys could be out and in
5:19 pm
the green or in the black. which one do you like though, still? >> yeah, it's interesting. the one that they are out of -- sticks out to me. they reported august 25th, i believe. jeff mills talked about dollar general as well. it has been pretty consistent for some time. although it is probably a tad expensive on valuation, this is a company that seemingly delivers every time. i will talk about bowling, maybe dan wants to talk about facebook. but i think dollar general is the one. coming up, good prognosis on healthcare in general. plus prices surge, and drilling into the energy trade in the economy. don't go anywhere.
5:20 pm
back in two. makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is.
5:21 pm
but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these
5:22 pm
and so many more in the xfinity app. welcome back to fast money. check out the s&p ticker ticking higher to start the week. according to mills, the
5:23 pm
healthcare space is also home to some of the best charts in the market. jeff, talk us through some of your favorites! >> i think that's true. you have seen this part of the market struggle a little bit lately. i think it is time for a comeback if you look at the -- it is a no man's land. number one, big cabin pharma. there is this type version between pfizer and j&j. versus mark and lily. merck looks like a much healthier chart. above the moving average it recently broke out above the old highs, versus pfizer which is rolling over to me. it also has valuation onside in my opinion. i will just throw out some other names quickly. love the business generally, love the business for this market. i like the chart, too. it broke back up above the old april hide from this year. i think you can play the
5:24 pm
momentum there. the last one is humana. just a really good-looking chart from this multi-your consolidation. my study trend above the 200 day moving average. you can go down a very long list in healthcare and find some really good charts in what has been a challenging market. i would encourage people to take a look there. >> so i agree with jeff on the fundamentals. it is interesting, because healthcare, you would think, all this that we are talking about should be underperforming. it was a place where a lot of big cabin pharma has good balance sheets. i think that is what has gone on with pfizer and some of the names that i think are as steady as she goes. i am long j&j, i am long pfizer. i don't do anything -- when we talk about the biggest names in biotech, it is, you know, you are not reaching too hard in
5:25 pm
terms of balance sheets. these are companies that have done nothing for a long time. this break above 200 broke through the downtrend around 125 or 128. we are going to talk about moderna later on in the show as one of those companies that has had a massive move, and it might be interesting. i think it is based upon the cap in the balance sheet. >> all right. there is a lot more fast money to come. here is what's coming up next. oil prices are coming up. are we just one big hurricane away from a huge surge? that's up next. plus, ready for retail earnings? big names coming up to report. and options traders are enfyg idtiinone name that could be in for retail rally. you are watching fast money, live from times square. we are back after this.
5:26 pm
power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated custom scans help you find new trading opportunities while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market ♪ ♪ i was having relationship issues with my old bank. it was just take, take, take. so i moved to sofi checking and savings. get 1.80% interest, and earn up to $300 when you set up direct deposit. sofi get your money right.
5:27 pm
another busy day? when you set up direct deposit. of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.
5:28 pm
welcome back to fast money. on the back of worse than expected economic data for china, there are signs of a slowdown in energy demand. oil slumping along with commodities. patrick, great to have you with us. have we hit peak gas prices? >> i think for now we may have seen prices bottom out. obviously oil prices last week took a bit of a jump. so for now, the national average seems to have stalled out at $3.92 a gallon. today's drop could start some more increases, but it is just
5:29 pm
a matter of time before whatever happens to markets today get sent down to the pump. i wouldn't look for much more relief across the country. certain areas like the west coast and rockies, i think gas prices in those regions will drop more noticeably in the week ahead. here in the great lakes we are already seeing prices go up in ohio, indiana and then michigan. >> what are we factoring in for hurricane season in terms of the impact on gas? >> it could be sizable. obviously it has been a pretty quiet hurricane season so far. it is contingent on what hurricanes could do upon entering the gulf of mexico. that is a very sensitive area. a category three to five storm could cause gas prices to rise $.10-$.15 per gallon if we get
5:30 pm
another harvey. hurricane season is still about two weeks away from starting. >> it seems like with the selloff, the refiners still hold all the cards here in terms of just where the spreads are and in terms of the capacity. can you speak to that? >> absolutely. a lot of this year has been about their ability to produce enough fuel in light of the fact that refining capacity in the u.s. has been trimmed by 20 barrels from 2019. if refiners continued discipline, especially in light of the summer driving season, refiners may start going into maintenance mode in the fall, and i could keep supply constrained going into the winter. >> patrick, we think about demand and structure, we typically think about price, you know, a price point at which the consumer will pull back. i wonder how you figure in a prolonged period of high gas prices, and at what point in that scenario we see demand
5:31 pm
destruction. >> i think it depends on the economy as well. the health of the economy. we saw very resilient consumer this summer. against the backdrop of an economy that was reopening after covid. this year's $5.00 a gallon in terms of demand destruction, we can see something similar next year if the economy is doing poorly. this year we did not see record high gasoline consumption. there was a level of pent-up demand from covid. moving forward, i think the bar is going to be lower where we hit demand destruction. that is, consumers may not be as resilient during an economic slowdown to pay the prices that we had this year. >> patrick, thank you for your analysis. we appreciate it. >> thank you for having me. >> it has an impact not only
5:32 pm
for the consumer but for the retailers themselves when they are dealing with shipping costs. >> i think it is less demand about consumers driving, because everybody needs to get themselves to their job and things. but what does it mean for other discretionary purchases that they might not be doing in that regard? i will just say this. that guy was really good. go back to q4 of 2018 when crude oil topped out at like 77, $78. remember we had that kind of global gross scare? the stock market went down 20%. that is pretty shocking in a way. then it really flat lines in the 60s. all of 2019, when we were still averaging gdp of about 2.2% or something like that, to me, i don't see a strong case for oil going much higher. >> i get it, but i don't see what has changed at all about the global oil supply dynamic. if you listen to saudi arabia, they say they are ramping up supply. right now we have taken quotas within opec and opec plus to
5:33 pm
pre-quota levels. the international security dynamics that are going on, and we hear this from oil companies. oil companies are going to continue to pay out dividends. that is why the xle has outperformed the brent or crude or whatever your benchmark is significantly over the last month, and through an earnings season where i would just go back to the soapbox value i stand on. these companies are run better, and they are run for equity investors for the first time in probably about 15 years. that is what i think you can actually own them here. i don't think oil prices can go down a lot from there. >> jeff? >> yeah, i agree with him. i think this pullback is an opportunity. we knew that things were overbought there and we talk about a pullback in the stocks. just to underline tim's point, with s&p 500 think we put together a chart. you can look at it and see the divergence. xle versus s&p 500 basically flat since the end of june. we saw the same thing in
5:34 pm
november, december of last year. maybe that is the sector we are looking for and saying, hey, we don't think the commodity has much more downside. i look at stocks like exxon and chevron. i think that is probably a pretty good bet. >> you like refiners best in this space? >> i do. it has had a rough day today, but if you look at where the refiners are and how well they are operating, i think refiners for trade here look really interesting. i think bolero is top of that list. coming up, is this a dream come true for disney? first, a big day for retail traders on deck, including walmart. fast money is back in two. makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain,
5:35 pm
easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers that sounds just paw-fect.
5:36 pm
terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated custom scans help you find new trading opportunities while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market non-gaming tribes have been left in the dust. wealthy tribes with big casinos make billions, while small tribes struggle in poverty. prop 27 is a game changer. 27 taxes and regulates online sports betting to fund permanent solution to homelessness. while helping every tribe in california. so who's attacking prop 27?
5:37 pm
wealthy casino tribes who want all the money for themselves support small tribes, address homelessness. vote yes on 27. welcome back to fast money. check out the slate of retailer on index. walmart is up, and mike has the
5:38 pm
action. hey, mike! >> reporter: hey, i am at walmart right now reporting 4.4%. they treated three times the daily options value today, and the biggest option is trading for an average price of about seven cents. the stock is predicted to rise above that price after earnings, and that would represent a move of a good size by the end of the week. i am hoping they are right. >> guy, what do you think? walmart and target, you would think they would deliver because they missed so much the last quarter. but they have to. >> they have to, but if they say something like we are working through our inventory factors, back-to-school looks to be better than we expected, the consumer health, yeah, you
5:39 pm
can get to 140. i just don't know how that can happen given the catastrophic levels of inventory they still have. i will tell you that 140, that is passed support becomes resistance. i think if it gets there, that is the extent of the move. >> you member the word that bill sammon use when we had him on shortly after? apocalyptic levels of inventory. what do you think of how walmart and target are positioned here? >> i think it's interesting. i don't know that you will see a quick turnaround with the inventory issues. i think all of that is going to be really telling. remember that on friday i talked a little bit about how the stocks tend to perform. there is the near-term and then there is the longer-term picture. remember that walmart, if you go back through the last number of recessions since 1980, it is actually outperforming the broad market by 25%. we have all these issues.
5:40 pm
we are working through them in this quarter. if we do go into an economic contraction, walmart is actually a stock that tends to perform pretty well. i will say about target that they have a lot of the same issues, but i think there is a margin of safety there. both of those stocks were trading at 20 times in february. i think if you play that name with a little bit more certainty relative to the valuation, we will see. the next quarter will be telling. >> tim? >> i think that was the trend for 2021, was to own target over walmart. significantly. i think both target and walmart -- i have a bigger position and walmart. i just think that inventory dynamics are temporary, yes. they are not systemic issues for the companies. as bill simon pointed out in one of those segments, they are the most sophisticated retailer in the world. i just don't see it -- the way the stocks were punished relative to the dynamic, it just might be that stores sales are what matter.
5:41 pm
>> he also said he would take target over walmart which i thought was funny. >> yeah. we have not been accustomed over the last 20 years to them filling in the gap within a week or so. when they tease that doug mcmillan is going to be on the show tomorrow morning, you know, it is probably going to be okay. he is not going to come on and lay a big egg there. that is my two cents there. they say we are working through this stuff, but we see signs of life in terms of the consumer. >> be sure to tune into the full show. coming up, full steam ahead, full stream i had. a lot of the news out of the streaming space today. what does it mean for your investments? we are breaking down all of that up next. plus, the big comebacks that may have more upside ahead. ahead. fast money is back in two.
5:42 pm
with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education ur perspve. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.
5:43 pm
5:44 pm
welcome back to fast money. disney shares jumping after a
5:45 pm
new stake in the company. disney responding in a statement saying that we welcome the views of all of our shareholders. we continue to deliver strong financial results. the letter continues to point to the company's con tent offerings. joe, great to have you with us. what is your take of loeb's proposal? >> it is really interesting, especially with espn and hulu. the espn product in particular is interesting. while a lot of the streamers are focused and they don't deal a lot in sports, a lot of the platforms like amazon, apple, google are getting into sports rights. you can look at this two ways. sports rights are going to give
5:46 pm
up, and disney is looking to get out of it, but the other side is that streamers think that sports are important to reduce churn. one point i think the debris should understand is that sports are the tent pole when it comes to advertising at these major media companies. i think 15 or more of the top 20 live events on tv were sports for the nfl alone. so there is knock on effects to getting out of the sports business that i think some people should be thinking about. >> joe, how should we think about these other media companies, though? we have seen some massive unwinds with at&t and time warner in such a short period of time. you see huge incentives to keeping people on their platforms. will we see a lot of these media companies divest a lot of these assets because they can't keep up with spending on content, whether it be sports rights or original content? >> i think all of the media companies are a little bit
5:47 pm
different. it is something that has been universally true in the media business in these large conglomerates. most of the companies that are in the media business, that isn't where most of their profits come from. disney has a machine that turns content into merchandise and parks and cruises. amazon sells everything. even nbc universal has a branch that sells cable and internet. while at&t divested up, you see a spin out with paramount and viacom and cbs. you have now seen paramount go into business with walmart with walmart plus. you will see more of these bundles. >> joe, based on what you said earlier, it sounded like, to me at least, you were saying that disney should spin off espn
5:48 pm
because it negatively impacts advertising in other parts of the company. is that what you are saying? is disney trying to move away from advertising in some respects, and does that really matter? >> i will take the second part first. i think everybody wants to move back towards advertising. even disney+ says there will be an ad tear coming. the advertising ecosystem for the big guys, for the disney's and nbc universal's is really -- some of the ones you saw weakness on, platforms such as snap and twitter, i think there is a lot of health and a lot of margin in advertisements. that said, the letter did point out from loeb, that they could capitalize on the sports channel. depending on who they spin espn out to, it is worth billions of
5:49 pm
dollars. >> all right, joe, great to get your thoughts. thank you. >> where are you for spinning out, guy? i think you have made this argument yourself. then they can get into sports betting. i am wondering if that would be the thing to do, seeing where sports betting is right now. >> i think it one point they were giving away espn for nothing. obviously they got that lifeline in the form of exactly that, sports betting. i think if they do spin it out, they are in a position of power right now. they should be entertaining offers. but i don't think the need to be doing anything, necessarily. disney, to me, has turned the level on a number of corners. i was shocked that i got below 90, but i am not shocked here. i think 25 multiple, which historically for disney is reasonable, especially in this environment which people seem to be paying up, i think you are looking at $150 stock with
5:50 pm
or without espn. >> i agree. if you look at the stock and when it began to increase to the streaming business and the multiple rewriting, it just -- disney is now growing significantly, even more so than netflix in terms of subs. if you look at these last numbers that we got, international and parks, they just knocked it out of the park. it gets back to what joe was emphasizing. disney's core business is that they are a consumer products company on some level and and experiences company. that is why i think that disney is overly punished in the media wars when you lose sight of their core business. coming up, big caps, big moves. are some of these names still worth a buy? don't go anywhere. fast money is back in two.
5:51 pm
♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier.
5:52 pm
with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. as a business owner, and your bottom line islp always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. with xfinity internet, you get advanced security that helps protect you at home and on the go.
5:53 pm
you feel so safe, it's as if... i don't know... evander holyfield has your back. i wouldn't click on that. hey, thanks! we got a muffin for ed! all right! you don't need those calories. can we at least split it? nope. advanced security that helps protect your devices in and out of the home. i mean, can i have a bite? only from xfinity. nah. unbeatable internet. made to do anything so you can do anything. welcome back to fast money. netflix jumping more than 50%. dollar tree up a whopping 97% from its low. are any of these names still worth a buy? general, we will kick it off with you.
5:54 pm
>> i talked about a lot of the names that don't have free cash flow. they are not considered profitable. they are not considered quality. i think that paypal is sort of the opposite. i would prefer paypal to a lot of other things that may be trading more cheaply, but are more reliant on future growth. i think elliott's involvement is a good thing with the cross management, looking for growth in other areas. the company is already doing that themselves. if you own the stock, i think you can hold it. i don't think you need to chase it here. you are approaching resistance at the 126 level, but i think this is a stock with fundamental characteristics that you can buy here and do well over the long term. >> tim? >> i agree with that. i am going forward, though. jim farley has been talking lately about job cuts like a lot of other ceos, but he is also reiterating that they are going to increase a lot of the things that people didn't think
5:55 pm
ford was going to be able to do. to me, even after a 50% move, and as you say all the time, you make the most money when things go from terrible to kind of bad, i don't think he had either at ford. i think he had the environment that changed. but if you say, so what, well, i think it is 8 1/2 times. i think that is something you can own here after this kind of move. in fact, we have got even more data, and i think that is what you needed to hear. >> you like paypal, right, dan? >> yes. some of these rallies, they seem a little bit hair-raising, but understand where they come from and the potential for them. a company like paypal, if it were to expand, there are so many things there. >> was that your traders twice? >> no, mine was -- so tim, you have been gone for a week. nothing has really changed with tesla. the stock is up 50% from the load just a couple months ago. i want to put some context in. that is $450 billion in market cap. the only thing that has happened is that they had
5:56 pm
slightly disappointing numbers, and as far as deliveries, probably less than expected just a few months ago. >> you want to buy this? >> no, no, i don't. >> i mean, i -- >> traders twice. >> oh, you weren't on the call? >> no. i was on the call that i was on the air. >> i thought it was upside down, because i knew you were fading. >> anyway, guy -- guy -- >> we are light on time. but at sea is only trading at five times revenue. i think it deserves better in this environment. despite the fact that it has rallied significantly, i think it has rallied from the recent lows, which would make it a $134 stock. >> up next, final trade. (swords clashing)
5:57 pm
-had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. when hurting feet make you want to stop, it's dr. scholl's time. our custom fit orthotics use foot mapping technology to give you personalized support, for all-day pain relief. find your relief in store or online. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones you'll always remember buying your first car.
5:58 pm
and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
5:59 pm
final trade time. >> one of those healthcare names keeps moving higher to above that 200 day. good management, recurring
6:00 pm
revenues, that's what you want right now. >> guy? >> valero. >> the fundamentals hold up. >> i am going to stick with mills. with venmo

86 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on