it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. here is your top "five@5." the dow snapping a five-day win sk streak could the ride get bumpy the central bank suggesting it could be more flexible with the rate hike strategy what retail invest ors give health ckcare sticker shock

could a big tax change in the inflation reduction act hurt electric car sales it just might. i'll show you why coming up on thursday, august 18th. this is "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning, good afternoon and good evening i'm brian sullivan let's kick off the hour with your money stock futures are not giving us an indication. they are down. dow futures down 10 points nasdaq down .10% it is early. let's call it flat after a big two-month run, stocks have not moved this week. it is summer after all that could all change tomorrow really maybe today because of

options. this is options expiration week. most expired today going into friday that could increase volatility something to consider for the next 48 trading hours. the 10-year treasury is 2.88%. moving higher on the back of the fed minutes which is seen as dovish than some might have predicted. the oil market, crude is sticking around the $88 barrel mark we have a guest saying that return to over $100 or $125 could happen also watching gasoline gas is very high last week remember, there had been hope that higher prices would cut demand, but maybe as prices dropped, demand popped in crypto, bitcoin at $23,300. the coins all slightly higher

across the board more on our markets in a moment let's do what the show says and go worldwide joumanna bercetche is in the london newsroom with the look at early trading from europe. good morning, joumanna >> good morning, brian today, the picture for european equities is positive yesterday, we had the deep session of losses. stoxx 600 ending weaker yesterday. there is a lot more green on the board with the exception of the ftse 100 in the uk down .10%. we had monster cpi numbers come through yesterday. 10.1%. it is having a ramification with the bank of england and what it will do next cac 40 is up nicely today. .30% some comments this morning from

ecb p mmember saying inflation concerns have not been alleviated we are getting hawkish news from the ecb. that will have an impact as well on the direction of travel for the european economies this is the breakdown per sector these are the names we are looking at with individual stocks the payment provider in the netherlands down 1%. the cfo on the show earlier was talking about rising operating costs. that is the picture for europe back to you. >> joumanna, thank you so much. to big headlines you need to know stateside two big pieces of lawsuit related news happening this morning. bertha coombs is here with those. good morning, bertha >> good morning, brian federal appeals court ruled a pair of losses for the oil companies for the climate change

will be decided in state court the decision by delaware and hoboken, new jersey, is the latest that state court is the proper venue for the legal action the suits by delaware and hoboken are among two dozen filed by states and cities against companies, including exxonmobil, chevron and shell. the companies denied liability in the cases and sought to resolve in federal court. a federal judge in ohio ordered walmart, cvs and walgreens must pay $650 million combined to two counties in the state for damages related to the opioid crisis. the payment made over the next 15 years all three companies were found libel last november for the role in the opioid epidemic in both ohio counties. pharmacies abused position of special trust and responsibility

as dispensers of controlled drugs. we are seeing this in a number of states. shares of the china property group falling after the profit slump. country garden says the first half earnings fell as much as 70%. it cited decrease in property sales in the market downturn and slowdown in construction for the drop brian. >> all right bertha coombs, thank you very m much see you in a few minutes. the federal reserve is seeing interest rate hikes continuing until inflation is reduced significantly. the minutes for the july meeting show support for another 75 basis point rate hike with many giving the green light for tightening policy until inflation is back below 2%

level. the fed indicates the pacing is dependent on the market environment. what does it mean for your stocks we have kevin caron who is the senior portfolio manager at washington vadvisers 2% inflation that could take years, could it not? >> good morning, brian sure there is no clear -- there is no clearance when the fed is going to be done doing what they are doing. we are preparing for a world that is different than in the past for most of my career, anyway, the fed provided a backstop to the market and always able to turn to rate cuts to stimulate things for the first time in 30 years, we're in a situation where the fed doesn't have the kind of ammunition to go to as easily because with inflation running where it is and for them to step in and do more by way of, let's say another round of

quantitative easing and expanding the balance sheet and cut interest rates, that would run at cross purposes what they are trying to achieve. the market is trying to sort this out that is why we see the cross currents in the data >> is there a risk they get too aggressive now and overshoot >> of course there is. we're seeing not only the fed, but central banks around the world looking to tighten if you look at where real interest rates are, in other words, subtract inflation rate from the short rate. you actually conclude the federal reserve isccommodatin here in the 1970s and '80s with double digit, paul volcker had to raise above to get tight and accommodating. with inflation at 9%, do the math we have to have interest rates at close to 10 p% and we are

nowhere near that. we hope to get a bend in the inflation curve on the forward basis. that takes the tail risk out of the market that the fed has to get excessively tight here we need to be cautious in allocation and focus on things to survive if things get more difficult. >> when you say difficult? >> the market that is valued in the united states that is $46 trillion if you consider a bad case and this is not the base case, but consider a bad case. the economy is currently $23 trillion if you are at $46 trillion, you are roughly two times the overall gdp. you still have a market that is expensive. now the good news and so there

could be relatively significant down side if the fed had to get real tight and the value of the stock market came back into line with the size of the underlying economy. you need to see profits break down and the good news here and why we're not calling for the worst-case scenario is profits have held up well. things are changing and we need to be cautious for the fact that we still have a relatively high historic valuations and we are entering a new regime in monetary policy. there's just a lot of uncertainty and we have to be careful about that >> are valuations overall priced for recession right now, kevin do valuations need to come down more than they have? >> no, the market is not priced for recession.

in fact since the beginning of summer, the curve inverted where short rates above long rates is typically a harbinger of rehe ses recession. we have seen that the stock market has gotten a lift out of it we have a bit of a rally pull this back further what has been leading this summer has been high quality companies. our index of quality companies at washington crossing insudex s up since the beginning of june when the bond market got concerned about recession and low quality sdtocks. high debt and low profit those have under performed we had a rally, the constitution of that rally shifted away from more speculative risky companies to more tried and true high quality companies. you could interpret that as a

market that is actually a little bit cautious about the future even as it rallies through summer we are not out of the woods yet. we are happy to see that the profit picture has held up and as long as that is the case, we are not looking at the worst-case scenario. >> that's been some decent news. kevin, i'll have you back on and dive back in on the names. kevin, you are high quality. we appreciate you getting up early. have a great day. we have a lot to do on thursday when we come back, china's scorching heat wave leading to electricity rationing and some companies have to shutdown operation. eunice yoon has the latest plus, the big money moefvers and investors are howling for one chipmaker. howling. there is your chart. guesses? it's a hard one. amazon turning to the competition to poach a few good

leaders to fill out the movie antvd business. all this when "wex" returns. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated custom scans help you find new trading opportunities while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it.

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welcome back let's go now to china because while they are still dealing with shutdowns due to zero covid policy, now people face another problem. heat waves scorching temperatures drying up water supplies and cutting sources for hhydro power.

let's talk about it with eunice yoon eu eunice, how hot is it? how has it been? >> reporter: it is really hot. some ittemperatures have reache 110 degrees fahrenheit the country issued red alerts from the weekend which means the temperatures are well above 100 degrees. the country is warning now the droughts could last through september because beijing is battling some of the most severe heat waves it has seen since 1961 temperatures have been hitting provinces along the country's longest river. that has been prompting authorities to use emergency measures to deal with water

supply discharging more water from the three gorges dam and transferring water from the drought stricken areas the areas that are most affected are in the southwest and central part of the country. that part of the country is very heavily reliant on hydro power and home to big suppliers of multinational companies like intel, apple and tesla the officials have been calling on factories to limit their electrical usage they want production to be cut at least until next wednesday. brian. >> yeah, this is happening in europe as well it has been truly incredible what has been going around the planet how are the companies coping with power rationing how do they manage it? we talked about this in germany.

how do you implement it and none is sure how they are doing it. how are companies they're doing it >> reporter: some companies have it easy. authorities will tell them you cannot use power for this time to this time so there is a power rationing that is imposed on a certain company like foxconn they will suspend production and comply toyota said the same catl, a lithium battery supplier for tesla, also saying the same. there are other companies looking for creative ways to maintain capacity. we hear about companies building solar panels on the rooftops to take advantage of the sunshine of the day and keep production lines going. there are some people trying to figure out ways, including renting a lot of power generators in the area as well

>> wow the odd thing with solar, when it is super hot like that, it decreases efficiency solar operating best at 80 degrees and tapers off in extreme heat how is it? we see it is raining it has to be swampy and gross, eu eunice, if it is rainy and hot >> reporter: it is people deal with it all over the place. the government has said the reason why they are calling on factories to take part with the power rationing is because they want residents to have power for the most part. they are prioritizing homes. the power rationing has extended to malls and other residential areas. on the one hand, they are saying people need to take part liken courage people to be part of the

canonservation campaign you mentioned 80 degrees. offices and homes. people are told set your air conditioning at maximum of 78.8 degrees. then also no one can use elevators. discouraged from using elevators and encouraged to take the stairs you might be a hot dog you get home to after 30 flights and then you get 78.8 degrees. >> oh, by the way, take the stairs 20 levels or whatever it might be in some of the huge beijing skyscrapers. after covid zero, and all of this stuff going on with lockdowns, eunice, i'll send you a giant, i don't know, bouquet of flowers we appreciate all you do eu eunice, i hope you live on the

second floor eunice, thank you. thank you. eunice is the best dealing with so much over there for so long. they are so messed up. it is aggressive -- aggressive policing. still on deck, call it bed r, bath and bye-bye traders cashing out. we're back in a moment ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system?

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welcome back time for the big money movers. three key stocks happening right now. stock one is cisco systems beat forecast and giving a positive outlook for sales the company says after a challenging spring due to covid shutdowns in shanghai and supply chain issues have been easing. chuck robbins will be on at 9:00 a.m. stock two is the mystery chart wolfspeed. howling. this company is formerly known as creed the chipmaker with a smaller loss and beat forecast after strong demand. wolfspeed is giving good guidance the stock up 21% you go, wolfspeed. stock three. this is the big name bed, bath & beyond

shares down 12%. surging 50% yesterday. board member ryan cohen filing to sell, possibly, his entire stake in the company repeat he may sell his entire stake cohen is the chairman of gamestop the second biggest investor. on and taiwan taking steps to tighten ties this move could make beijing angrier. follow our podcast our show is on all of the major podcasting platforms. dow futures in the green we're back after this. football, housewives... whoops. oh no... the housewives are on the field. i repeat, the housewives are on the field. i just want to talk!

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could the stock market recent run and calming done? what is happening today and tomorrow could bring sellers back in. oil sneaking under $90 a barrel is a run back to 125 do5$125 are corner and sticker shock on what you pay for health care in one state could be going way up. we'll tell you the state and what is happening on this thursday, august 18th. this is "worldwide exchange.

welcome or welcome back. hope you are having a good start to the day or end if you are watching from asia or australia. hello. let's kickoff the hour with your markets and money. stock futures turned positive. i'm not going to make too much of it. up 13 points we are in the green. stocks have not moved a lot this week after a nice two-month run. of course, it is summer. that could change today and tomorrow because of options. this is options expiration week. most expire today and going into friday remember, markets structure isis something we talk about on the program has gotten weird since the bull market began. the markets on the short side has dropped off since the end of june that has kept volatility in

tech check coming into the new options month, it is possible, i'm not saying it will, it is possible that positioning on wall street flips and could send stocks lower. it does not mean it will with volatility being low,shor sellers flushed out of the market and tomorrow is a reset for the monthly options, you never know what could happen if that big hedge fund position decides to flip back something to put in your brain let's get back to bertha with more headlines on thursday. including big moves by amazon to build up tv and movie business bertha >> brian, the u.s. announcing overnight it will begin formal trade talks with taiwan. that's the top headline at this half hour. the office of the u.s. trade representative saying the first round of talks are expected to

begin early this fall with the focus on matters including trade facilitation and digital trade and anti corruption standards. the china economic coercion would be discussed this initiative was announced back in june china firmly opposes the new trade initiative. penn entertainment is buying the rehe he remaining shares of barstool it is getting the full stake of the company. it will complete the purchase of the shares by february and amazon is looking to some of the streaming competitors to bolster its entertainment division otherwise known as poaching. according to the wall street journal, it held talks with

several hollywood leaders and search for a movie studio executive to lead the division that includes conversations with netflix head scott stuber and former paramount pictures executive emma watts it closed the mgm division and saw two executives depart for warner bros. discovery i'm sure a lot of talk around the watercooler as who lands where. >> it is an historical time to be content creator if you produced a couple of mildly successful shows, you might just get $100 million deals. bertha, we have to talk. let's talk after the show. we're smart. we can come up with something. we can figure it out >> put our thinking caps on. >> yeah. exactly. maybe our money caps on. bertha, see you in a few

minutes. interesting story coming up. right now, let's talk oil. as you know, there have been some relief at the gas pump the last few months. oil prices above pre-pandemic levels and have come down since spring demand for gas is still remaining high with millions of americans potentially hitting the road and going back to the office three or four or five days a week, it could pop more that with american production not rising quickly and america now exporting oil which could be the recipe for higher prices let's talk about this with jay young. ceo of independent oil and gas producer jay, good to have you back on. when i saw the oil export numbers, i had to do a double take because we always exported some oil since they legalized it a couple of years ago, but it is

amazing how much oil we are actually selling outside of america now. >> exactly we're getting back to the importing, but we're producing more oil, but still not where we need to be our rig count in the united states is still not where we need to be we're up 50% from last year. that doesn't mean we're out of the woods. we still need to continue our drilling in the united states. our governments need to get behind us more talk about content if you need content, there is a lot of content for drilling for oil and gas in the united states there's a lot of content with federal governments that need our support. we need our state governments to continue on. there is so much information right now that is not out there that's proactive, if you will, brian, about trying to produce oil and gas and trying to get back

all they we are drilling for oil and gas now, we have to keep up with the inventory we have to drill 2,000 wells a year in the permian basin to keep up with production. once the drilling stops or levels off, we need to continue drilling wells decrease in production i don't think people understand. we are back to drilling and we look like we're there. demand could kill us right now if our demand goes up a lot lot your point, jay. i don't want to get into the politics all of the leases and they make it sound so easy with all due respect, it is not that easy i hope to come out to texas in september or october to tell more of the story. just because you have a lease doesn't mean you have a permit if you have a permit, it doesn't

mean you have people if you have people, it doesn't mean you have frack sand or water or the way to get the oil out. there is a ton of hurdles that still exist. >> exactly, brian. you talk about the type of money needed hundreds of millions of billions the dollars needed to drill for oil and gas. i said there are four reasons why we are not producing number one, governments that are keeping us from drilling there are state governments that keep us from getting permits we're getting permits in wyoming, trying to it is harder in wyoming and colorado compared to texas, oklahoma and kansas. i have a permit in texas not long ago takes me about a week. in wyoming, it takes two or three months also the public companies. still a lot of people are public companies on the boards and saying we don't want you to drill for oil and gas. we want the profits back to us

it is record profits last quarter. $31 billion by the top three all of a sudden, are they back to drilling? no that's what normally happens in a situation like this when you have companies making so much money in the oil as gas business, they put the money back to work to drilling and all of a sudden supply comes back. that's what normally happens in a cycle. this is an anomaly we are not seeing that we are seeing the opposite you know, companies are putting money back into buying more stock. they are doing shares to dividends to investors instead of drill for oil and gas the capital -- >> a couple of years ago the industry was told to wind down it's over. now people are wondering why they are not producing more oil. it doesn't seem that hard to figure out

a lot of people leaving the industry because they feel if my industry is dead and told to go away, i better find a new job in something else that is a longer term issue. in the short-term, jay, what do you see happening with oil prices >> i see it going back to $100 a barrel $120 a barrel. we're not seeing the supply that we need that will meet the demand when the demanded starts going up we had a couple of inflationary periods and china covid issues it brings demand down. you see the prices this morning are coming back. i see by the end of the year, $120 or $125 it is just -- we're not doing the things necessary in a market like this to keep the price down we need support from the governments. we need more capital a lot of institutions are not bringing the capital back like

they were before we need that money we need support. we need all of the things necessary so we can continue drilling for oil in the united states it takes supply. we're an anomaly people start drilling for oil and oversupply and demand with prices coming down you are not seeing it this time, brian. we are in for higher oil prices which will affect everything gasoline, obviously, does impact everything from going to restaurants to everything that is transported by cars and trucks prices will be higher. >> and gasoline demand remains very, very high. one week where it dipped other than that, it has been high according to the federal government jay young, i appreciate it thank you. have a great day all right. coming up, your morning rbi and the president's big climate law could actually hurt electric car

sales. head to break, dodge pulling back the curtain on the electrified muscle car it unveiled the concept that is all electric all this as dodge is winding down the current gas power challenger and charger vehicles. apple setting the date for the unveiling of the iiphone september 76th papa john's getting trolled online over the pizzstzza bowls. you can try one when they go on sale on monday what do you think? doesn't that defeat the point of

a pizza? isn't the dough thenree ti thing? what's say you we're back in a moment

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package. that is good news when you layer on before the billdicting a step a recent report says goldman sachs saw a drop of 30% of carbon emissions in the next 10 to 15 years before the law was passed that is still below the president biden goal of 50% drop, it would be good here is how goldman seeing it playing out. drop comes from the blue line at the bottom emissions from coal going to zero natural gas stays high on the bottom gasoline emissions, which is the middle part of the chart, a lot going on, goes down. a big part of the emissions drop estimate is expectation that electric car sales really boom in years to come goldman's analyst raised forecast to 6 million electric

vehicles sold in america in 2025 to 2030. 1.2 million per year that would be about 7% of every car and truck sold in america. it's not great, but it is not terrible it is even that estimate which is at risk quietly tucked away in the act is a provision that kills the $7,500 tack cx credits for evs e outside of the united states it is designed to be a carrot or a stick for the foreign carmakers to bring more production to america. it also boosts sales of american made electric vehicles here's the problem right now many u.s. made evs are not too expensive to be covered under that tax credit. they cost $80,000. that's the cut off mineral prices surged in recent

years. right now, most electric vehicle buyers are well off. will this tax credit he going away really matter well, one way to find out. we asked you in a poll earlier this week. if losing that $7,500 credit would impact either the ev you buy or whether you buy an electric car at all. holy tail pipes, batman, look at the responses. 15% of you said the loss of the credit won't matter. good news. you still buy the electric car most ev buyers are higher income 15% of you said yeah the loss of that credit may change the brand or model you buy. 17% said now you won't buy an ev at all it may have changed your thinking look at the bottom more than half of you said your next car is going to be gas powered regardless i'm not sure that's what detroit, which is spending

hundreds of billions, on selling a new type of car wants to hear. we do realize that our polls will probably have a selection bias people who follow us or watch cnbc or follow me. if that poll is close to how others around america feel, ev sales could have a much harder time than many people think. even goldman sachs, perhaps. random and thought provoking all right. officials in connecticut are being pressured to reject a proposal from insurance companies that could set costs for health care plans sky rocketing. under the proposal, rates on individual plans could jump by 20%. it is not just residents of the nutmeg state pfacing rising costs. bertha is covering this. i did a double take when i saw

this story i'm glad you are covering this this would be a massive hike >> we haven't seen a big hike like this since 2017 insurers are asking for hefty increases on the exchanges citing inflation the average increase over 8% the states in the light blue, according to aca sign ups, about a dozen states, look at the orange states, asking for double digit rate hikes the ones in red, new york and connecticut, requesting 20% on average. idaho in dark blue with insurers proposing a 3% rate cut. citing higher prices from doctor groups and hospitals with wage pressures for the increases. regulators will push back. you will not see as big as

increase as they are asking. brian, subsidies will bring costs down for people who buy on exchanges and inflation reduction act extended subsidies for customers instituted during the pandemic we will see those for the next three years. some of the sticker shock will not follow through to the individuals themselves >> i know those subsidies you mentioned were one of the most urgent part of the inflation reduction act. this one, the expiring subsidies. i guess, bertha, if you work for a company like ours or ge in boston or united technology or espn or whoever it might be, if you get insurance from your employer, does this mean your premiums, they having been going up anyway. could they have another pop? >> smaller employers are in the

same boat because they are buying in the smaller individual market the larger employers generally are self insured they underwrite the risk they are able to mitigate costs better mercer, a benefit firm, says most are looking at 5% to 6% inc increase, but more manageable than double digit sticker shock. the other good news is for seniors, there will be a couple of breaks next year because of the inflation reduction act. there are a few things happening in the medicare part d section for buying drugs they will get a $2,000 cap on out of pocket spending $35 cap on insulin copay and no copay on vaccines

medicare folks had to pay out of pocket for vaccines. >> some good news it won't get passed through bertha, it was shocking that headline they proposed 20% it's galling 20%? >> yeah. you know, connecticut in particular small market on the exchange three insurers one asking for 8.5%. others are asking for more >> only. the good news is they have great roads and low electricity costs. wrong one. sorry. bertha coombs, thank you 20% proposal. on deck, stocks regain momentum after the snap on the win streak. go from here the next guest says bonds may hold the key stick around

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the next guest says this, is the bond market to cautious? eric beiley is the manager director he joining us now. eric, the stock market lately and the bond market are telling two stories. who are you listening to >> brian, good morning investors need to look at both carefully. the stock market we have seen since the june lows as you stated, has been impressive. on the other hand, you see the bond markets and inversion with short and long-term bonds telling a different story. saying recession is imminent investors should be cautious i lean, you know, a more optimistic with the equity markets have proven investors are confident with what the fed is doing and the economy so far is slowing, but not at a pace

that signals real deep concerns like the bond market is indicating >> yeah. you know, in the yield curves, people will joke and be cynical. it predicted nine of the recessions nothing is perfect even with the run, valuations on big companies like johnson & johnson and chevron, names you are interested in, valuations have come down if we get an economic slowdown in the next 12 months, are certain companies priced for that appropriately >> great question. that's why i like total return equities companies that will pay strong balance sheets to pay dividends. to ride out this uncertainty which is prevalent in the markets. companies like chevron, broadcomm, johnson & johnson, pay nearly a 3% dividend yield

which is the same as a two-year treasury it is worth holding the companies to ride through this uncertain environment. i think we will get headwinds. september is a challenging month for the market we have a few more weeks of the summer type trading. you know, we're definitely recommending to our clients to stay the course in equities, but with total return investments. >> quickly, biggest risk to the market right now is what >> i think unexpected fed policy i think investors have gotten confident with what the fed has done with the rate hikes and language they have come out with i think if we see unexpected policy by the fed, that would shake the markets. also, unexpected economic news real significant slowdown. if we see real slowdown we

haven't seen yet, that would be a big concern. equity markets would take a drop and inflation. >> we have the fed, eric, we have jackson hole meeting coming up here in a week. steve liesman will be there. you talk about the fed shift if it is going to come, it could come in the vistas of jackson hole eric, thank you. i appreciate you tuning in to "worldwide exchange." if you watch us live now or you are watching us lar.te see you tomorrow "squawk box" is next take care. it's time for the biggest sale of the year, on the sleep number 360 smart bed. it's temperature balancing, so you both say cool. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more

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good morning futures are relatively flat after the dow broke a five-day

winning streak on the agenda, employment data and retail earnings. and bed, bath & beyond sharing tumbling after the cha chairman announcement. and we have the cdc plans overall. dr. scott gottlieb weighs in it is thursday, august 18th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times area. i'm rebecca quick an along with andrew ross sorkin if you twyou want to see what i