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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 19, 2022 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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digits. they divested the more traditional, well-known business. we think they will have cash to buy down debt and buy back shares. we have a 1% tax on the buybacks. i don't understand how that makes any sense. we can talk about that later. >> will talk about that another time. i don't know that will have a big impact. thank you for your time. that doesn't for overtime. "fast money" begins now. right now on 23, stocks end a month long winning streak. the s&p is saying the biggest one-day drop since june. with jackson hole around the corner at a new slate of earnings, how should you position your portfolio? a major meltdown, morgan stanley has big cuts today. where is the stock going out? we go to the chart master for answers. believe it or not, they were
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bright spots in the cloudy market. we will tell you what will pick up in footlocker. this is "fast money" . we are in the heart of times square. we start out tonight with what else we see on wall street. the major indices are taking on the chance. the nasdaq tumbles 2%. this is the biggest loss in retail. the central bank officials are convening in jackson hole next week. what you make of the move today? >> the way you print the market is, it's about inflation, the fed, and earnings. it is likely in that order that i want to bring the market. you have the ability to run in the market. we did. now it is time to take a pause. we got back most of the selloff. now, it is time to throw out the shorts again. you can see where we live.
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the middle of september, i think you will feel bullish to neutral. margins will come into play. we will get the back draft in the market from september to october. the midterms come about. i think that will be how we go into the window. >> we had some hawkish talk ahead of jackson hole. jerome powell speaks on friday morning. everyone will be listening to that. all he has to do, if he wants to set the market straight is open his mouth and be hawkish. things automatically become crystal clear to investors. how do you think the markets would react to that message coming from the fed chair? >> typically, it is a temper tantrum. what we are looking for is the easy money that we have gotten clearly addicted to. i have said this before and i will say it again, the fed has a wife and kids, that is
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inflation and employment. we, as investment are the mistresses and the side piece. it's important that they handle that. looking at the data, employment is still very strong. inflation is getting better, but it is very, very high. that will be the focus. they were caught flat footed and they don't want to make the same mistake twice.>> she never fails to deliver on the metaphors. how do you follow the nasdaq plot? >> if only my wife and kids were that easy is what i was they. [ laughter ]we have a dynamic with the fed, coming out of the commentary she talked about, they are trying to sound hawkish. what we have noted about the minutes, and i would define this week as the feather did not want you to believe that pivot means anything close to easing. if anything, restrictive is the right word, and for longer, and
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on hold. i think the ultimate guide has to come from the market. it has to come from the fed fund futures summer between april and june of next year is where we will hit our peak. we will then pull back. many things can change. the numbers have been changing. the fed better be hawkish. as d pointed out, and we are all outlining, the rally is a function of better inflation, and possibly even gas prices lower the pump are a bit of a tax cut. the dynamic that is mostly about positioning and sentiment. after the 29% move, they did pull back 5% in a couple of days. it is not that big of a deal. carter will talk about this, maybe not today, but we have the key technical levels for the market. you do have the options today. i think this could set you up for a bit of a downward bluster
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on monday. i think they were trying to push down volatility over the coming weeks. that will not be great for docs next week. >> they have to be hawkish. they have to be. in september, they will likely move 50 basis points i don't think they will move 75. that will be seen as bullish. the only way we don't go into a recession is if they fail. they stopped too soon. they will always push it. >> the side effect of the anti inflation campaign is a recession. >> they have to squash demand. in its definition, that to squash the demand so much. the problem is, we have a supply-chain issue that is on top of this environment that we are in right now. they risk the ability to push us into a recession that has nothing to do with why we are
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here. as you make the more we think about a recession, the more the market can believe that there is a fed pivot in 2023. after having this discussion, where the fed in the market seem lined up in terms of direction of rate and next year is where the disparity begins, because the fed is saying, don't think of a pivot. we will say that we will restrict this for a long time. the market is pricing in cut. it seems like the market is saying, what the fed will do will likely put us into a recession, which will cause the fed to pivot. i don't know what your take is on that. >> we have been born and raised on this one. this is the food we have eaten at the dinner table for 13 years. i don't see why the market will expect anything different. i am concerned that the fed deviates from its course, which is to get control of inflation. today, we got a 33% inflation number in germany.
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that is up 5% on the month, and up 34% on the year. these were higher than expected. i know we think this is just europe's problem, but it is not as simple as saying that inflation issues are contained regionally and we will suddenly see a total tailwind. we need to watch out for that. i do agree, i think the market does not know where the fed will be. the fed does not know. that, for equity should be unsettling. the market has gotten comfortable and believes this is a fed that might have afoot. i don't see the fed foot if they are doing the right thing. >> you think going through the end of the year we will see the opportunity to rally? is there some seasonality as we push through the september hike? will we see a more bullish market at the end of the year? to make everything pivots
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around the consumer. if the consumer has a good holiday season, we should be in a good position for next year. my concern is, there is too much inventory coming. it is waiting. it does not actually have demand to support it. warehouses are whole. they are not taking delivery of certain supplies. half of the stuff out there waiting is stuff that was for the summer. it will not hit at the right time. i am concerned about the health of the consumer. it looks like it is a mixed bag if we look at retail earnings this week. we have more going forward. i just wonder, if the retail segment really starts to falter, what will that mean for business confidence overall. they are not divorced from each other. >> let's go to the meta shares that have dropped. the stock under poor forms by a wide margin. where will it go from here? the chair master is here to give us the technical take. what are you looking at?
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>> let's try to figure it out. in the case of morgan stanley, this is coming in line. the highs and lows are all over the place. the average place target is 223. this being reduced down to 225 puts it in line with consensus. the price item was 400 on the street. here we are in the 220s. what we do? let's look at the charts. the first chart, the long-term chart, all data. this wasn't maintained. this is just over a decade ago it came out at $38. only just recently has a broken trend. you can see that it broke its trend at 59%. it is fighting hard not to continue low. let's look at the short term. the next iteration picks up before the low, putting it in relief. the covid-19 low was 140. the stock keeps fighting at
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150, plus or minus. that is important. the last two charts are identical. the first of the last two, is it simply in a downtrend and we go to the covid-19 lows and continue lower? another way to draw the line, the last and final chart, are we basing and bombing? that is what my eyes are seeing. you need capitulation like this. you need this to come down. ultimately, meta or facebook is something to be bought, not sold. >> thank you, we will see you in a few minutes. it is always great to get his take. he says let's figured out together. the charts have every single answer. the fundamental side of meta is dynamic. you have a core business , which is declining. the other growing new business, which is harder to monetize. you have this thing that is spending billions of dollars
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called print well. it has a forward pe. he thinks it is bottoming. where do you think the stock is? you make a lot of it depends on what the earnings will really be. at the end of the day, this is a media company. as sales advertising against content. the content is user generated. to the extent that it cannot do that as well, that is a problem for the fundamental earnings. to the extent that they are deciding to plow a ton of money into the metaverse, that does not have a clear business use case, fundamentally, it is problematic. i think regulation is still something that is a fundamental risk due to all of the practices that we continue to hear that have been so negative. for us, we will stay on the sidelines. to make when you look at the chart, as carter said, when you look at the year chart, it looks like it is bottoming. you look at the three year chart, yet go back to covid-19
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low at 137. as julie said, they don't know who they are. how can i invest in a company that does not know who they are and is pending a ton of money to figure out who they are? they are seeing a therapist every week try to figure out who they are. that therapist is costing them $1 billion. how can i invest in that company? stomach date changed their moniker to meta. they know who they are, basically. [ laughter ] >> the only good thing about the change to meta, is we are now at least expecting less in the way of spending then we did when they said they were moving aggressively. we do understand that is not the exciting story in the near term. if anything, the morgan stanley downgrade was glass half-full. if anything, they talk about the upside. there say 4.5 billion in 2023.
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it could be over $10 billion. they're talking about op ex which is growing slowly. this whole meta have it is one that facebook has been trying to do. i'm not saying they are trying to downplay this. i think they're trying to show that they can be in control of costs. i think they emphasized that there is a lot of bad news in the price. getting down to 225, they pointed out where the street is. be clear on carter, if you cannot feel relaxed and comfortable listening to her on the setup when you see a monet painting behind him, i feel like i hear classical music laying whenever he opens his mouth. i did hear a basin there. i did add to some facebook about two weeks ago. i did not feel great about it. let's be clear, facebook is 7% off of the low of the market when everything else is up 20
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to 30%. it tells you that the market is struggling with the story. >> i think carter should do books on tape. we have a double dose of topping the tape. we go into petroleum and footlocker. we have turbulence ahead. the airline stocks have been under pressure. we look at the trouble that is only just starting. do not go anywhere. we have more fast money coming up after this. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis
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welcome back to "fast money" . we have ox he getting approval going up to a 50% stake. berkshire already owns more than 20%, allowing the company to report them of their earnings as their own. what you think of oxley? >> obviously, we are trying to see if we will be in and up capital cycle. it gives them more disability. it was tough in quantities. i don't bet against warren. i feel like he has way more information than i do. it probably makes sense.>> let's want to footlocker. they had better than reported earnings. the warmer alto ceo will take
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the reins on september 1. america updates them on the back of that announcement, calling the appointment thesis changing move. the gain was the biggest since 2017. >> when i go back to february, there was a gap lower in the charts. the level that has you back to is 41.5. today, after this monstrous run, the stock is up over 40%. it does stop short of that level. that means there is a ton of resistance at that price point. i would say, take some profits until it breaks through that level. to make tim, dylan was a rockstar at ulta . >> absolutely, three times revenue. this is well into the loyalty business, getting them into retail and distribution that they would not have been. the story for the locker, the change in thesis, they are less
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reliant on one core vendor, i.e., nike. their last reliant on the brick- and-mortar malls. they are moving toward btc. they have a lot of work to do. let's not forget, the numbers that came out are the best annual sales since 1994. i know it was the pull forward from covid-19. this is not a broken company. it is a company that has something to prove. this is right person for the job. >> zoom, peloton, and nvidia, oh my. we are asking traders which one will give us the real read of the market. stay tuned at 6:00 p.m. for the battle of the consumer after the big week for retail. we dive into what is next for the sector and how they are fighting to keep customers coming back. we will be back in two minutes. ? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. ♪ ♪
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bed bath and beyond are moving down. there down 6%. the bloomberg is saying that shipment to be held due to unpaid bills. credit firms have revoked coverage as well. we see the stock reacting immediately to this. the plot thickens. there is the real question as to whether ryan cohen was privy to nonpublic information when he sold his entire stake in the company, because he put in some board members. now the report comes out. i am not trying to connect those dots. the timing of this is fascinating. >> that is what we have been talking about all week. i cannot speak to that. i can only say that they are pushing hard for the board of directors, of which he has
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influence or he has appointed, at a time when he was getting very involved as an activist. it is not just the role in buying the stock. what a wild week. i think the stock is up small, week over week. it did move down 40% today. it went down six points after hours. this was the restructuring story last year. this was a story, at some levels it sounds like amc or game stop. there are secular reasons why people don't need to go to bed bath and beyond anymore. on top of that, there has been a burn and balance sheet issue. it is a nasty combination. it is not a stock that i would be speculating in either direction. >> what is your take on this?:i agree. we are not trading on fundamentals anymore. it is just noise. if you start to look at the fundamentals of this business, you are right, this is
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something that does not have the same level of relevance. you do not need the box set to work. the competition they feel from amazon and other players is brutal. even from the pure fundamental standpoint, the balance sheet is a mess. this is not something we would be interested in. >> that stock is down by 5%. friday after hours, it will get whipped around. they say it is not over until the fat lady sings. we have another week of earnings. we have big names like 12 brothers and nvidia. what is the number one stock that you are watching, steve? >> it is impossible to say number one. i am interested in everything on the board. i want to see with a firm looks like with the partnership with amazon. i want to see said tech next week. i want to see what nordstrom looks like as well. >> tim? >> nvidia, the fat man can saying as well, by the way.
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why do we have to say fat? >> somebody just saying. >> i will call nvidia a fat cat. this was the high-tech, high momentum growth. we have numbers out of nvidia. they were not great. a lot of it is in the stock. i do want to hear on datacenter. i would hear some of the other trends that they were articulating. gaming is down massively. we will benefit from hearing from nvidia. i think people want to believe in it. >> julie, you are focused on the read on consumer. is the market understanding how burlington and the retailers are reporting next week is easier to get a better consent. things have been favorable toward the uprise. these are typically more
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resistant in the economic downturn. these guys have been hurting for inventory. i think they will have a wave of it. we are not inspired by the numbers for the low income consumer. i'm worried they all get squeezed by inflation. >> you are also watching [ indiscernible ]. >> yes, all of the earnings have been swept away by the write-downs at 3.5% on unemployment. that is not a great sign. to make it is time for the final trade on friday. tim, kick it off. >> this did go fast, and it was fun. i'm looking at the stake of oxy going up. the balance sheet is pivoting. we have the ability to be profitable, even with the prices being $20 lower. the mac i do like bentley systems. this is an infrastructure software play that is vertically focused. it is less cyclical and it has been around since the 1980s.
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>> i'm curious to see how the federal manage this. >> is at the same thing? >> [ indiscernible ] >> is that what people refer to? that sounds like a dangerous conversation. the show is over. it was fun. that was fun. do not go anywhere, options action is up next. buying your f. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price.
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it is friday, it is time for options action. tonight, the s&p 500 snaps the four week long rally addressing the continuous rate hikes. is this a slump into it next month? >> we look at a particular play to keep profits flowing. everything needs to come in for a landing. i don't how not to lose your baggage. with

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