industry. >> i hope there's any takeaway to this, it's that people within the industry have a fiduciary responsibility to the financial services industry, and i hope my story motivates people to not be so passive in their role in discovering in or assisting in so passive in their role in discovering in or assisting in the closure of frauds. -- captions by vitac --

is this is the beginning of a low period. there are plenty of people on the ladder, and let's draw some lines. s&p 500 with nothing on it. this is just a chart. it is what it is. no judgments. no hesitations, no lines. let's put some lines in. this the same chart. you can see quite precisely, on the way up, the markets sort of responded or adhere to that.

and now it is the exact opposite. and it hit its head and that downward sloping line. how much lower can it go? let's zero in a little tighter. you can see this heading it down off. and we hit our head. and this is where we hit in june and july. i think we're going down at least into the high 3s, if you will. >> thank you for that, carter.

mike, how do you trade this? >> i mean, i'm in carter's camp here. i think people that have been following the show that we're along and only in our fund for sure. and we did pay our positions significantly after a great week for retail. the question you have to ask yourself, right now, how you want to play it? the line is kind of drawn for itself. if you're anticipating a sharp move, a big drop or big spike that is the time that you want to go out and use single leg long options, by a call if you're bullish if we arrange them, that will be the real circumstance

premium for the credit spread. we're in the down trend. we hit the upper end of that. he identified a target and he's expecting us to drift to the lower one. i think a debit quick spread makes the most sense here. he talked about the high 3 hundreds, 380s, 390s, that the strike that you want to sell. i was looking at the foot spread. it would cost $3.74. i'm usually looking on a three to one payoff. that is close to at the money. but it is not in the money. that is essentially what we're getting right here. the idea is that you're just going to use the strike that you are selling to help finance the option that you're buying.

>> i'm in the same camp here with carter and mike with respect to the broader view of the market. it is trading lower from the week. it is important levels. you have the trend that carter got and it ticked on that the moving average to the penny it's and bounce lower. so from a probability base perspective, i think the market will head lower. how far the market is going to decline. i'm not as bearish. i think as the markets do decline from 400, we're heading significantly lower from there. it is one of the most capital efficient ways to take a bare

exposure. this is a 3-1 risk. he's targeting the 380, 390. i think this will pull back to the 400. it is how much are you risking and what is your target price? you may use 4200 debit spread. that will be a little less. it will give you about a 2-1 ratio. i would rather risk less and make a little less as well. this seems to be back into part of this call, the overall bearish view. if you have that bearish review the biggest stock of them all, this makes total sense. >> there is a lot of impact of

72% of the s&p 500. how low we do, who knows, of course. and tony is making all the right points. there is something i'm keeping an eye on, the unfilled gaps down at 3100. it is that sort of level that i'm thinking. >> let's go to the crude oil closing out the week. down about 2% and continuing down. but you think it is overdone. tony? >> i think now is the time to step back in the energy names. if you look oitf. it is a clear uptrend in the past couple of years. and we pulled back to that trend line despite the 30% decrease. and now we're spiking higher.

i think that will continue. if you look at baker hughes. the third largest constituent, what you see is the same clear uptrend that we pulled back to after that 40% massive decline. i think we're going to bounce higher and continue higher. if you look at the relative performance to the oih and the oil services otf, this is a stock that, for the most part trades on par. we expect the stock to bounce back from the trend lines. i expect a little more from the stock based on where it is currently positioned. they sold off the operations in russia. that has created this 40% decline. and the sale i think clears the deck and provides some opportunity and long exposure

for this particular name. is it forming the formation. but it has not broken out yet. that is the tricky part. i think the upside is there. i want to buy premium. but i don't have have a direct catalyst for the move in the short run. i'm going out to october. and i'm looking at the 24, 26, 29 reversal. this obligates me to buy the stock at 2360 or so. and using the premiums to finance the purchase of that 26/29 call spread. that gives met exposure up to 29. i'm doing this for a 40-cent credit. this is the low that we saw here from two or three weeks ago. and this is all the way up to

29 without paying any additional premium to do so. >> mike, what do you think of the trade? >> as he pointed out, it is a trade that i use quite a lot. if you're spending 40, 50 cents that is not a bad premium collection. that is nearly 2% of the current stock price. that is a nice aspect. having participation is also attractive. and here you have a stock that is facing. so by selling that downside put, you have a level, a reference point. i'm not along this particular anytime. i am long in halliburton. for those of you that have stock on if you own baker hugh or halliburton, a quick spread color will give your position

the exact same risk or characteristics that tony articulated. >> carter? >> i'm all for it. if you look at the overall energy sector. but as the lines are drawn, tony knows exactly what he's doing. the potential is high. >> have you landslide looked at sle or trading back? >> i have looked at s le. it is good in addition to this specific name. i do like sle and this specific name in oil services. still to come and travel. if you think travel is coming to close, we have the ticket. don't for get we have a lot more on our website and in our newsletter. we'll be right back.

it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style. ♪♪ did i tell you i bought our car from carvana? yeah, ma. it was so easy! i found the perfect car, under budget too! and i get seven days to love it or my money back... i love it! i thought online meant no one to help me, but susan from carvana had all the answers. she didn't try to upsell me. not once, because they're not salespeople! what are you...? guess who just checked in on me? mom... susan from carvana! [laughs]

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do you think the travel

trade is ready to take flight? not so fast. if it comes in a hard landing, we have i way to close it out at the baggage claim. it is time for the call of action. >> has anyone heard the stories of air travel lately? i've traveled a lot, over a hundred thousand miles a year. i have not traveled as much as i used after the pandemic, nowhere near it, in fact. take a look at what is going on right now. we have events and none of them are that positive. we're seeing almost eye wateringly high ticket prices. everyone i talk to anyone traveling anywhere, this is the

first thing they complain about. you combine with stretched consumer budgets due to inflation pressures. that is not a great recipe. and we're coming to the end of leisure travel since things have reopened, if you will that is not a good combination. when we were talking about what the s&p 500 may do if the mark will do lower, name jets will problemly go lower as well. this is about one and a half times volatile. so again, you're going to want to use something like the debit foot spread. and the trend is generally bearish. but the premiums are relatively high. i was looking at the october foot spread. that was 60, 65 cents. that is a little more of a

quarter of a distance of the strikes that i usually like to spend. that is partially a function of what i like to spend here. the option premiums are hire as a percentage of the stock price and the spread. but i think that is the way that you want to play it if there is a downside. and i think there is a trend for the broader market than lower. follow the trend with a broad market. the performance numbers, they tell the tail. in fact, you see the stacking order here. and to mirror back all the airlines are a member of atf. and bringing up the rear, you see jet at the bottom t a

comparative chart is worthwhile. it cues up 130, 175, all positive, even the iwm. and there is jets down 40% over the past five years. not so good. and let's do some here and now charts. this is a cute simulation, right. no lines drawn and the final iteration with the drawings. jets, big debt is all a problem. these are highly indebted companies. tony? >> i agree. it is not so much the demand. north america back to 2019

levels. it is the high fuel cost that significantly hit the bottom line. we're nowhere back to getting close to the levels. that is why the airlines are trading below the 2019 levels. i made a few attempts to pick up some of the airlines like the best like southwest and delta, speak all sputtered out here. i think the most important chart is the poor relative performance. it is impossible to ignore. i'm in the same camp that the airlines could head lower. again, just like the one that he's using for spy, that is the most capital efficient way to look at that. this is risking over a little percent of the etf value to get about a 2-1 ratio on the etf that is quite volatile. so it costs a lot for the put

options and it makes sense to reduce your cost and risk on this particular trade. >> last word to mike? carter brought up an interesting point here, the debt levels. you can see the capitalization of a company fall, there is also the debt. that is not the only thing going to consider. that is going to increase of the volatility. up next we're taking a look back on one the tony's home improvement trades. much more after t .

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he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim® web. because platforms this innovative aren't just made for traders -they're made by them. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade time for a trade update. >> we're back to an important level that 315 level. that the prior level of support that is now going to be a level of resistance. we see a lot of buyers no longer stepping in and sellers getting back in that are trapped above looking to get out of their trade.

and going to september and buying the 310, 285 spread and spraying the $7.13 for the debit spread. that is only risking 2% of the stock value. >> home depot climbed about 2%. there is still time left on the trade. >> there is time left on this trade. when you get a trade like this with the catalyst like earnings, when you get it wrong, it is time to cut your losses on this particular trade. i think there is a possibility for this trade to come back because we're down about 50% on the trade, i would close out half the position if you have more than one contract and you leave the other half for the home depot to drift a little lower. >> what is the strategy to collect premiums that i could use with major indexes if my review is down sideways in the

next two months. but higher in years end. >> this guy has a good crystal ball. it is hard enough to call the market when it goes up and down. so we may need to talk. if you think it is going to drift only mildly or going to be watching the credit spread to the upside. i think it would be a good way to play it. and wait the two months before you start making bullish investments. >> what is the trade on bitcoin through btio? >> is it the same sequence of the market from june 18th. it topped this week. but it was a 43% move from 1700 to 25. and now heading the other way. i would sell the credit spread above. >> we have time for one more.

this one says, with buffet buying apple sell bonds to sell stock and index funds, how do you manage my apple short plays if it does behave the way we will? take this one, tony, please. >> when a trade doesn't work out, what do you do? you should have a plan before when you're going to get in and get out and stick to that. and don't throw good money after bad money. if you're going to get out of a trade and get into another one, look at the decisions at each other. up next, we have a final call.

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person. >> mike? >> we reduced a lot of our long positions this week. if you want to do the same thing, but with options consider foot spreads like the one on espy. that does it for us on a friday. we'll be back here next friday. don't the drwhere, aly cnbc form special, battle for the consumer. that starts right now. find out more in this paid presentation for new crepe erase ultra with the new ultra smoothing neck repair, brought to you by body firm. have you seen it? it shows up on your arms, chest, legs, and your neck. it's that dry, crepey-looking skin that can make you look so much older than you actually feel. (female announcer) are you ready to unlock the secret to smoother, younger, and healthier-looking skin