>> because of how rich he made them. how mad could they be if they barely invested anything and next thing they know, they're making, spending money like crazy? they got to love him. and there are a lot of kevin lovers out there, and i see and there are a lot of kevin lovers out there, and i see where they're coming from. good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum these are your headlines this hour the bear market rally stalls with global markets starting the week on the back foot as we look to the jackson hole symposium. beijing moves to revive the economy shaken up by coronavirus numbers and rising economic crisis. and russia will hold all gas

prices, but oil prices slip in the recession fears. streaming giant hbo max and amazon brace for a crucial few weeks with key releases due. and cineworld is struggling to fill theaters. happy monday wonderful to be back with you this morning investors are gearing up for the annual jackson hole symposium. they will listen to jay powell on how far the u.s. central bank is willing to go to bring down decades high inflation the event comes with the disconnect with the markets and fed. rallying on the back of strong earnings and hopes the fed may slow pace of rate hikes to prevent the economy from tumbling into recession.

markets are now pricing in a 50 basis point hike at the fed september meeting and even a possible cut next year despite comments from officials indicating otherwise cnbc will be at the jackson hole summit in wyoming. coverage begins thursday this summit comes amid a packed week of earnings and data. let's run through the highlights zoom and peloton both report this week as well as retailers macy's and nordstrom the tuesday numbers are pmi readings from august across europe and the u.s wednesday is six months since the invasion of ukraine. on thursday, the jackson hole summit kicks off friday, tension turns to jackson hole for the jay powell speech in the uk.

let's see how u.s. futures are looking to kickoff the week. head across the board. similar story to europe. right now, the dow jones industrial average with a 300 point drop at the open nasdaq and s&p 500 looking to open weaker as well. if you see heon the screen, eur has fallen below parity. this is something we were tracking toward the end of last week we had a huge amount of action in sovereign bonds and yields higher all of this on the back of the stronger than expected ppi reading out of germany raising expectations of a more aggressive ecb the problem is if the ecb gets more aggressive to control inflation and raises rates sharply than previously anticipated, what does that mean for growth in the context of the

more pre-carious situation? recession concerns that means a 0.4% drop in the euro against the dollar. we have comments from the bund bank president the ecb must keep hiking rates to bring down inflation. that is the reason we are seeing the concern around the growth outlook and selloff in the euro this morning let's look at equities in europe this morning and see how we are trading u.s. futures are pointing to a weak start it is a global story we are seeing a down turn in european equities to kick off the week we will check it now the majority of stocks in europe trading lower. down more than 1%. it seems that the comments from the bund bank president are rattling investors from a regional perspective, this is the split this morning we have steep losses in italy.

fotse mib down more resilience in switzerland that is down .60%. health care is the best sector in the market this morning here is a picture of the sector split. health care is the only sector in europe in positive territory this morning on the down side, we are seeing very heavy selloff in autos. cyclical basket of stocks. down more than 3%. you are seeing the auto suppliers under performing within the auto sector i mentioned the bund bank president already and it was forei important to get to the kmecomms early. the ecb must hike the rates. he said inflation in the country is set to top 10% by the autumn

as russia continues to throttle gas supplies he doesn't expect germany to fall into a wage price spiral. unions have acted responsibly in the crisis let's look at the banking sector and see how we are looking european banks deutsche bank down 2%. commerce bank taking a sizable hit. we are seeing a selloff in european banks this is very interesting if we are talking about more aggressive rate hikes from the central bank usuallyhigher interest rates are good for the mib if it comes alongside the worsening growth outlook which is what the investment community is thinking about, then it is not necessarily a tailwind for the banks. we are seeing a selloff in european banks let's look at yields yields up across the board right now, german 10-year

trading at 1.19% in italy, 3.4% let's welcome morgan from global x etf. i wasn't going to start the conversation here, but the euro crossing below the parity line with the dollar. can i get a word from you on the significance of the euro breaking parity with the dollar? >> it is mostly driven by fears and the fed being more hawkish than the market expecting. i think that looking forward to the next couple months until the end of the year, the current between the u.s. and europe should be stable as you said a few minutes ago, the ecb is expected to rehe main

remain aggressive amid inflation on the headline and core inflation. it is probably just a setback. there is probably not much to it this week, unless the dollar moves against other currency would be driven by the jackson hole meeting and any indication that they will be more aggressive and hawkishness from the fed priced in. the second thing is the second revision of gdp numbers and whether the u.s. economy is in recession or not i do think that what the market is currently pricing in, the dovish move is potentially premature. perhaps by not too much, but we might have enough surprise at the next meeting with 75 basis points increase instead of 50. lot of the key inputs to inform

the fed with the decision will come from the contribution to growth, but also from other numbers until then when core inflation trends >> a lot to dive into there. an excellent overlay over the weeks ahead. let's dive in the ecb side if you will what does the market want to see from the ecb we we have the comments from nagel. we need to see more aggressive hikes. we see the selloff in european equities and bonds rise across the board. it feels as though markets are more concerned about the growth impact with the rate hikes than ecb getting inflation under control. what do you think? >> i think there is a disconnect with what the market is expecting and what the ecb is doing. if the ecb is managing inflation and they have been clear with

the last meeting and looking ahead, what the ecb's position is challenging it is a catch-22 they try to reduce inflation to prevent inflation and go out of control. that is slowing the gas demand which is something that ecb or europe has no choice but doing that is coming at a cost for reducing the economic activity i think overall a reduction of activity in europe is -- there is no choice for this to happen because of the lower gas supply. what is interesting and something that we are already seeing in the market is more fragmentation across europe not only on the bond side and yield side with the spread widening, but also on the activity and

economic activity side of things germany, the back end is moving to the gas supply cut from russia france and spain, in particular, spain has out performed over the last month showing more resilience to the energy crisis. so it would be a very complicated task for the ecb overall, increasing interest rates and being aggressive on the inflation side seems the way to be for the ecb. on the activity side, lower activity means lower gas demand which the ecb europe has no choice but doing >> it is interesting fragmentation carrying many meanings in the months ahead what does it mean from the strategy perspective from your point of view? it feels like the outlook for europe if we divergence that the outlook is pretty grim relative

to the u.s >> absolutely. so already in the market we are seeing more defensive sectors among european equities out performing health care and consumer staples these sectors are potentially more on the defensive side which is positions toward the sector for european exposures interestingly, the u.s. despite the mixed signals about where the economy is going, they have some strengths there and in terms of defensiveness, if you are locating to yields, we are starting to see a shift to industrials and overweight there because of the strength of the u.s. economy relative to its peers. in terms ofpositioning, i thin the u.s. is seen as the more defensive region for location

and whereas in europe, there would be increasing discrepancies with countries which is an interesting play with some countries like france, spain probably more defensive in the energy crisis than other manufacturing countries or gas exposed countries like germany very interesting months ahead. >> interesting to get the relative calls within europe for investors. let's shift gears to the u.s. and fed and what we can expect from jay powell at jackson hole. what can we hear from jay powell that could rattle the markets this week? u.s. markets have been rallying recently and i wonder what will determine whether the rally continues or whether we see selling on the back of this symposium. >> i think any mention to core inflation trends and any

strengthening in that area would be a signal that this is in focus for the fed and that could be supported also by the l gdpestimate for q2 all of these are indications that the fed could -- giving reasons for the fed to continue to be aggressive in the short-term any signal or mention of the core inflation focus could be potential signal for a more aggressiveness in the sho short-term again, it is unlikely we get too much out of jackson hole this week at the same time. >> thank you so much for sharing your views with us this morning.

morgane, thank you car for will help ease in the crisis it is expected to keep the policy in effect until november. good news for french shoppers there. credit suisse named the new cfo as the lender continues the c-suite reshuffle. joshi will take over on december 1st. credit suisse shares trading lower. as you saw, the banking sector is under pressure this morning. turning to the health care space. fresenius is parting ways with stephan sturm amid cost pressures. the former board member michael

sunn will take over. in the teleco space, vodafone will sell stake in the hungary business for $1.7 billion. it is expected to be sealed by the end of the year. vodafone says this is a move by the hungary government to build a state owned leader in the telecommunications industry. we are up for a break. before we go, a quick on the dollar which fell below parity u.s. futures in decline ahead of the jackson hole summit. we'll be right back after this break.

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kick pain in the aspercreme. welcome back to "street signs. let's get another check on euro/dollar. we crossed back below the parity level this morning comments from the ecb bund bank president getting a ton of attention. he said earlier this morning the

ecb must keep hiking rates and prioritize bringing down inflation. the prospect of higher rates is concerning from the growth perspective given the headwinds that europe is facing at the moment there you have it. down 0.4% versus the dollar. whchina has cut the lend in rate as they have been shaken by the coronavirus. sam baddas has this report >> reporter: the one year loan prime rate which loans are based on by five basis points and the five-year which influences the price of mortgages by a more substantial 15 this goes to show the desire to keep helping the struggling real estate sector. the question is if this is enough to turn the property sector around. economists say it is not, but it

helps suggesting what the government needs to do is ease concerns about delivering homes to customers after the recent mortgage boycott today's moves were widely expected after china cut the rate on the medium term lending. that reduction did surprise the markets given concerns about the constraints on monetary easing with other central banks in the other direction and further depreciation pressure. the more modest five basis point cut to the one year is reflecting some of the restraint by the pboc. it comes as china continues to battle covid with the lockdown heavy approach and a power crunch caused by a heat wave now looking at it 2.8% in singapore, i'm sam baddas

back to you. let's look at the china sensitive sectors in europe markets. we have gas down 1.9%. anglo american down 1% right across the board for the minors, the chipmakers in europe, we have red for the chipmakers so pretty hefty selling in those names. the auto sector. the autos are bearing the brunt of selloff this morning. a number of names under pressure the supplier is getting more hit than what you see on the board here these are the oems volkswagen down 3% auto sector is falling out of favor among investors this morning. in geopolitical news, taiwan's president says the u.s. must continue the security,

economic and democratic support in the region. he was speaking to the indiana governor eric holcolmb who was the third official to visit this month. xi jinping met with vladimir putin in the region this month he could attend virtually for the next meeting which is one to watch. according to the russian ambassador to the united nations, the two sides might be engaged in a long lasting conflict ukraine preparing to mark the independence day this week which coincides with the six month anniversary. russian forces may attempt to do something particularly cruel urging people to resist

pressure >> translator: we must be aware this week russia may try to doing something disgusting and ru cruel. russia has done the same thing constantly disgusting and cruel the key task of the enemy is to humiliate us and devalue our heroes and capabilities and spread despair and fear. hence, it is essential never for a single moment to give in to the enemy pressure never wind up to weakness. >> german's chancellor says the sanctions will remain in place until they reach a peaceful solution to the conflict >> translator: the russian government must understand they will not get rid of sanctions simply waiting for things to change it is in a fair agreement with

ukraine. russia launched a murder investigation that killed the daughter of president putin. josh lederman filed the report >> reporter: the car bomb that killed the daughter of the allies my have been a contract killing. showing the suv she was driving engulfed in flames her father appears to be on the scene distraught authorities say she was likely murdered a bomb placed under her seat the question is why. the russian media citing witnesses saying her father decided to travel in a different vehicle and may have been the target himself he has been called putin's brain. the most influential ultra nationalist. views echoed by his daughter on

state tv for the last time on thursday she says people in the west are living in a dreaming and they need to be nourished by this war. the russian foreign minuistry claims that ukraine killed her one claimed responsibility on behalf of the previous unknown group called the national republican army. his claim could not be verified. >> on the other hand, this is no small thing. >> reporter: in ukraine tonight, fearings of retaliation on a country on high alert. volodymyr zelenskyy warning that putin may be planning something cruel. ukraine's second largest city will have a curfew on the

bittersweet independence day coming up on the show, uk prime minister hopefuls pledge support to consumers and businesses ahead of the planned increase for the energy crisis. and here is the euro against the dollar we have broken below parity this morning. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum these are the headlines. the global markets stalls with the new week on the back foot. investors look ahead to the jackson hole symposium the euro falls below parity against the u.s. dollar as feds stress more needs to be done. russia announces it will halt all nord stream gas supplies at the end of the month. and more fears with the iranian oil flowing into the market. fear the dragon.

hbo max and amazon with new releases and cineworld files for bankruptcy as they struggle to fill the theaters. let's get a check on the euro and where we starnd against the dollar we crossed above the parity level. on the dollar side of things, investors bracing for more reaction from the federal reserve to comba we look ahead of the jay powell speak at the jackson hole summit given the impact that higher rates will have on economic

activity and given the other headwinds at play and high energy prices, investors concerned about what that does for the growth outlook in europe we have a lot of factors driving both sides of the trade. we are trading above parity level. we did fall through it moments ago. turning to equities. we are trading on the back foot across the board dax is down 1.9% you are seeing heavy selling in the auto sector swiss market is down .70% u.s. futures are looking weak. we are looking at a pull back across the three major markets dow jones industrial average looking to drop 300 at the open. nasdaq and s&p looking at a weaker start we got news on friday that rocked investors in ureurope that is russia which will stop

the gas through nourd stream pipeline increasing pressure on gas supplies ahead of the winter let's look at dutch gas prices a good proxy for gas prices. we are up 13% this morning as you see it has been a clean for gas prices in terms of german utilities, let's look at the equity names trading. that is a picture of how we have done year to date. we are keeping a close eye on german utilities as well german electricity prices also experiencing quite a lot of price action we're up 38% nearly. clearly the natural gas, overall energy picture in europe, highly concerning that is part of the reason why if we are looking at more aggressive interest rate hikes from the ecb that is not

providing upside for the euro. germany's economy minister has ruled out keeping the country's three remaining nuclear plants online. saying it would only save 2% of gas prices at most having talking during the open door day that there is a clear consensus on clean energy. it is not worth reopening nuclear debate the comments to christian lindner who is calling on all at its disposal in the uk, the price cap is expected to increase on friday lifting bills from 2,000 pounds to 3,600 pounds in october liz truss told "the sun" on sunday night that she will intervene amid soaring energy costs this winter. oil prices are falling ending tree straight days of gains of the aggressive fed hikes

concerns over power restrictions and lockdowns in some regions of china have added to fears and along with iran i donoil coming market progress has been made in nuclear talks, bau ut accused te u.s. of procrastinating. they need a deal more than tehran we have the head of the energy advisers who is joining us now to talk all things energy. anish, let's kickoff with the iranian news they claim that progress has been made on reviving that 2015 iran deal. what is your take? i spoke to martin on friday from morgan stanley anymore conviction from your side >> good morning. so on the iranian nuclear deal,

i think the probability is increasing substantially over the last few weeks there is now a pretty good chance you will see that oil coming back on to the market i think that will have a further substantive effect in terms of loosening crude markets which have loosened substantially over the last few months. our thought is you have iranian barrels on the market and that will send crude down further. >> what has the oil price down if you look at it from a one-month view or three-month view i view we are trading at $92 for brent and $89 for wti. what is driving it >> we have been bullish for the last three months or so.

when you look simplisticly at the demand, you see it rose on the back of the worries over russia i think the russian supply risk hasn't materialized. russia is still pumping a large amount of crude and is able to get that on the international markets finding other routes into countries that are willing to take that supply. i think at the same time, you've had some other countries increase in production such as venezuela and libya. i think crucial aly on the demad side is what the market is missing is the situation in china. i think a combination of the economic slowdown in china and the covid restrictions has meant that chinese demand for crude oil has dropped dramatically we look at the oil x numbers and

latest numbers for august suggest almost a 20% or maybe more fall in terms of crude imports into china relative to three or four months ago i think that's also a crucial part of the demand equation alongside recession risk and evidence of lower gas demand as well >> anish, why do you say markets are under appreciating the china slowdown story first part of my question. number two, to what extent can india compensate for slowdown i oil consumption in china given india's economy is up and running. they are not dealing with covid restrictions now >> i think from the crude market perspective, you know, i think people have focused a lot on the supply side of things. especially with russia without taking into account the

impact you are seeing on the demanded side from china in terms of the fairly dramatic impact in terms of lower chinese imports. also, china's price sensitive. it will take less crude. it doesn't need to take that crude in it has been running refineries at lower rates on that point, india is somewhat similar. india is fairly price sensitive on oil and gas it does need a certain amount of oil to keep its economy running. when oil prices are above $100 per barrel, it will do all it can to reduce consumption. >> do you have a call on where we see oil on a one-year view? >> i think short term over the next few months, oil will trend lower. we've got -- we're assuming sub

80 once gas hits at some point if you look longer term, maybe a couple years out, structurally, there are a lot of signs in place to push oil prices higher given the invesinvestment, you l see impact from russian supply being hit and it is dependent on the economic growth and recovery if that does start to come back and you could end up in some difficulties in terms of supplying that incremental growth and growth and demand longer term, i think oil prices will recover short term there is down side risk >> anish, let's switch to natural gas. the story that came out on friday captured a lot of investors attention that gaz prom will shut again in august do you think there is a risk

with the kremlin shutting off the taps for the months to come? >> no, i don't i think where gas prices are at the moment, you are in unprecedented territory already. you've got extremely high european gas prices. you've got higher asian lng prices which are another proxy for spot pricing globally. i think that is showing you there's a lot of forward risk in terms of gas prices in terms of russia cutting off all supply. i think for the time being, it is a tight market, but there's no -- you've not run into a situation where the market has run out of gas so the current prices are more in place to encourage further storage going into the winter. >> you know, maybe my question was better placed for an equity

analyst. you know, very fair point we are seeing a huge amount of this risk reflected in natural gas prices and electricity prices. european equities. maybe another story. is there a disconnect there. i'll save that anish, in terms of nuclear in je germany, conflicting lines with regards if they will delay the closure of the key nuclear sites. do you think we will see any significant u-turn in policy toward nuclear in germany? if so, will it have a substantial impact on the energy available to the country >> well, i think it's clearly a ludicrous decision for germany to be considering closing its nuclear plants down in the midst of one of the worst energy crises we have ever seen the availability of that nuclear

is green energy when you think of the esg requirements and an decarbonization and germany is surrounded by nuclear with france having majority of its power coming from nuclear energy i think anything helps in this current environment even if it is a few percent that can make a big difference if consumers will go without power. i think there's a big argument for germany to retain its nuclear power stations just going back to the previous question in terms of the equity markets. i think one of the reasons the equity markets and energy stocks aren't reflecting the current pricing you are seeing, especially on the gas side is you have got other headwinds in place. you probably had a record quarter in the second quarter for these energy companies you've got the impact of higher

costs coming through and inflation coming through hitting these companies. you have higher taxes coming through as well. you've also got slow production for the sector i think that's the flip side in terms of why some of the companies haven't performed as well as you expect in the higher gas price environment. >> anish, thank you for weighing in on all things energy. head of energy at palissy. for more on the difficult winter ahead for the uk, check out cnbc.com nearly 2,000 workers in the uk container port downed tools on sunday starting an eight-day strike over pay. supply chain issues are expected to be amplified as the port handles 40% of the uk container trade. equal to 45,000 containers a week. barristers will begin a

strike on november 5 there after 80% of members voted in favor. the dispute with the uk government centers with the fees paid for legal aid cases after the union rejected a 15% increase offer that would not apply to any ongoing cases lots of industrial action. coming up, streaming giants go head-to-head as "game of thrones" spinoff goes up against "lord of the rings" tv show spinoff. details next

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welcome back to the program. we are going to be talking about cinemas and streamers over the next five to ten minutes i want to kickoff by mentioning that amc, the fan favorite among wall street betters and meme stock craze, shares have fallen 33% pre-market after cineworld confirmed a bankruptcy filing. sympathy selling, perhaps, in

amc. it has confirmed the bankruptcy filing in the u.s. shares plummeted to the record low on friday after the report said it was considering bankruptcy in the u.s. and uk. business is operating as usual with no significant impact on p employees. the heevaluation is ongoing. hbo max with the surge outages as the "game of thrones" pr prequel debuted in the u.s 70 in the reality and casting departments were cut. and amazon prime "ring of

the power" will debut in a few weeks going up against "house of the doctragon. this comes as viewers for streaming tops cable tv according to nielsen we have tim with media research joining us this means better content for all of us. how important are these single franchises to the streamers? >> they are incredibly important. so, to find out why they are significant to the streaming services at the moment is we have moved out as you identified a recent announcement that the streaming is normal ized this is the main way people are interacting with tv.

we called this out last year and identified the streaming tv era. what that means is we moved beyond growth of subscribers to keeping subscribers evngaged wit the services we have inflation in double digits in many markets and keeping people engaged with services is key. now, "game of thrones" against "house of dragons" is a textbook to provide a home for consumers who want to identify with the story that allows them to engage and willing to pay for a service that can give exclusive access to content that identifies with their personal entertainment preferences. this international property is

important for market retention for 2023 >> as we head into 2023, how do you think of the subscription services people are willing to buy? people get attached to franchises and they want to subscribe to their favorite shows. what if one favorite show is on one platform and one on disney plus and another on peacock, et cetera how many do you think they will subs subscribe? >> we have seen this move over the last few years it is less than the maximum. around one-third of consumers are willing to pay for two or more video subscriptions this is different from 2019 with the launch of disney plus and followed by hbo max in 2020.

they made a big point of talking about the tolerance for consumers with multiple subscr subscriptions. it doesn't happen basing having anvideo subscription is differe from the pay tv model. you have to manage different billing relationships and user experiences. the key challenge for the video industry is how do you bring back these services back under one single point of access and user experience. he very challenging this is a number of ways this could happen right now, we are in a fra fragmented landscape it is more expensive to sign up for the individual services rather than the additional bundle against pay tv. it is a big challenge.

one that is important now streaming is the main way of engaging in tv in many markets >> that is fascinating if you are tracking all of the subsc subscr subscriptions, many people don't realize how many they have and how much they spend on these things until you sit down and map it out and you see people cut subscriptions. given the companies are keenly aware of this saturation, people seem to have with the services, they are moving forward the ad-supported model how do the economics compare with the ad-supported free offer versus the ad-free subscription services that kicked off the streaming boom >> it is really depending upon what the market positions of the service is the big example here is netflix announcing back in june they would launch an ad-supported

subscription tier. fundamental change of direction and marketing position for netflix. it went to market in 2007 with the idea there was unlimited access to content for one fixed price on a monthly basis which would be ad-free now adapting that because we are moving in more expensive environment for commissioning. it is the entertainment industry caught the wider market fundamentals where the costs of borrowing money is going up with the higher interest rates. examples of how important this is for streaming services -- if you take the example of hulu, majority owned by disney 2/3 of engagement comes from ad-supported lower tier. it suggests there is an ability to complete that transition for streaming where we had pay tv gone direct to consumer.

and that is the other part of the tv landscape that needs to make the decision. >> tim, thank you for joining us for more on what is at stake for the streaming sector as more people enjoy popcorn at home, check out cnbc.com. and we have crossed above the parity level we are trading 1 against the dollar we broke through early this morning. resistance there european equities trading on the back foot this morning we are seeing a down turn in the u.s. futures markets around the globe feeling jittery as we prepare for jackson hole that's it for the show i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. here is the top "five@5. attention heading to earnings ahead of the jackson hole meeting. this after stocks off the worst dayin weeks. european energy prices soaring again and the euro falls below $1 in china, that country's central bank taking another step to juice its economy and its troubled property sector friday's big selloff and one meme stock favorite not doing much to deter retail investors