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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 22, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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built back in what we expected. it's back above almost 3.3, right? it was 3.4 at the height. >> edgard any said --. that's mike santilli. i will see all of you tomorrow. fast money begins now. right now on fast money from summer search to summer selloffs. the rally sizzling as the major averages have their worst days since june 16. plus, amc raising cash price creating a new preferred class of shares, if the new way for ceo to appear to the mean traders.
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the question, did you follow? later, netflix and chill, after 40% run this summer netflix and the other streamers are falling sharply. we will go inside the melting media stocks coming up. >> i am joe cronin in for melissa lee. this is fast money life from the nasdaq market side. on the desk tonight is tim seymour, steve grasso and karen finerman will join us in a few moments. are you doing? >> great seeing you. the sun is now shining because you are in the seat. i know that sounds sarcastic
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but -- >> we start with another major market selloff on wall street. the fp mac dropping over 2% falling into negative territory for the month. every single dock in the dow is in the right. the biggest in the big taking it on the chain as well with microsoft, apple, amazon, alphabet, and tesla losing a combined $240 billion in market cap just today, but the pain itself far and wide. airlines and banks all seeing losses. with jackson hole around the corner and more economic data, is it to say that the rally is on pause and it's good that i do the show maybe every three weeks or so because last time i was on i couldn't get anyone to say that we had made the
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ultimate low. everyone said we would eventually have time type of bottom and i was feeling good. we went from about 1000 on the s&p. next thing you know, the fed says look, 75 days this point will probably be needed. is that what get it? >> i think that fact that the fed have to be hawkish now. they have to be overwhelmingly hawkish now and we are going into hearing more fed speak versus less fed speak, try to say that three times fast. i think you're going to have a little bit of a hard time with the market maybe for a couple of weeks. >> obviously we had a run so 20% in the semi conductor index the ultimate in market typicality since july 5th which is either really encouraging or really troubling.
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we broke down right at the 200 day on the snp. we are down about 9% on the semis in four days. i think the dynamic around jackson hole is a section is that the fed came out of the last meeting. i think there is some interpretation of that last meeting that the fed wasn't pivoting but that the fed was at least ready to acknowledge that we don't know if we have overstepped our boundaries. it was the first time they acknowledged. as steve said i think we will hear a lot more out of the fed and hopefully for the market -- there are market factors hereto. we were positioning and sentiment in the markets for the last six weeks and at the start it was so low that the move that we had was purely a function of a little bit of relief on inflation, a little bit of a sense of the fed doesn't have to be as hawkish and you get yourself to this place. this week i think the fed will reassert that i don't think any time soon, i certainly hope not anytime soon, are they going to expect that they have won this
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inflation fight. citibank says they will be over 18%. germany on friday 34 1/2%. i also think that friday we --. a lot of volatility had been squelched going into that. these are factors that i think the market has to digest even if you think that the lowe's could be in. i can't tell you that they are not. i do think that there's a lot of uncertainty. >> i'm going to ask you a philosophical question. if some of the supply chain issues ease and some of the commodities that aren't rent or labor related, if those ease, where do you think inflation would be and it does the fed really mean it when they say we will get it back to 2%? if so, that's what scares me.
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can they really get it back to 2% given all the printing and all the fiscal money that is floating around out there? even if we do see an ease in some of these russia caused problems? 2%? we will never get to 2%, will we? that scares me. >> the answer is inflation will be lower but it will still be a problem. tim would agree with this. i think crude oil would be here with or without russia and ukraine. everything was trending in this direction so of supply chains figure themselves out magically sure, inflation will temper but we are still talking about inflation that will probably be two or three standard deviations for more than had wanted to be. can we get to 2%? problem is inflation being a huge problem. it does not go away overnight.
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it takes many months if not years to get it back down. once you let that genie out of the bottle it is tough to put it back in. now we are seeing wage inflation. is difficult to pinpoint. i can't believe the market interpreted this federal reserve as somehow pivoting and david taber would come on your show and say look, don't fight the fed and at the time he was saying it fighting the fed met you were being bearish in an environment where the fed was having luke adding liquidity. >> we are all still holding out hope for a soft landing and i heard that all they don't. if we are so far away from their state goal, 2%, don't they have to get much tougher on the economy then what would be indicative of a soft landing? doesn't have to be a hard landing to get back to 2% if
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they are really serious? i would like them to say 4 is okay, isn't it? >> if they are doing their job accurately, that's what they have to do to get to 2. it won't be a shallow recession. it has to be a very deep recession -- if they fail at their job we have a soft landing , but i don't think they are in control. supply chain disruption or energy prices. they have nothing to do with that. they can't control that so the only thing they can control is to raise at an aggressive pace and fashion but guy mentioned something about a pivot. i think, unrealistically, i think the market will think a 50 basis point in september versus 75 is a pivot. >> if the rate of change is
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less hawkish on some level than that is encouraging. the market has not priced in 150 basis points from now until year-end and the dynamics that i think the equity market could be a little bit disappointed here. have we seen the lowe's? i am not sure. we didn't hear from mega cap tech saying that apple didn't tell you the day demand for their new was waiting. we didn't hear that the enterprise side was a problem. i think that the feds -- first of all, we learned that the labor market right now -- i think we are at peak jobs so i do think that the job market will weaken but right now the participation rate is so low i think that artificially the job market remains tight and i think the fed has a lot more work to do. i think we would like to see them get control of inflation and i am one that has said,
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give me a very steep and aggressive recession if that's what it takes because i think it will be shorter than it will be longer. >> we will get to our next guest. i wanted to let you finish up. i don't want to forget you because you are not here although you are on a wire. >> we would never forget you. >> guy, does the market where it is right now, the snp is at a level that reflects that much of a slowdown? it seems like maybe there was a reason to go to new lows. >> absolutely not. tony dwyer's, he is coming on and he will talk about it. no, that's the short answer. it comes down to what is the right multiple in a slowing environment. what are earnings going to be? i still think if you want to do the math, 17 historically is about right and you would think $200 for earnings is not unrealistic in this environment. even i can do that math.
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i don't think that's ridiculous and quite frankly i think would be extraordinarily healthy for the market in the long run. >> our next guest says there are three reasons --. tony, how are you? >> good to see you. did they cut his mic? >> how is our audio with tony? tony, can you try again? there was more to that moving you were expecting but i think
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maybe there was some vindication in the end of last week and today for your more bearish perspective. >> is interesting because the momentum indicators were extraordinary and i think everybody in wall street at this point have heard that we have retraced 50% of the bear market decline and that more than -- are above and that is absolutely true and that is not to be ignored. when i went back and looked at the data i found something really important. i don't believe a single one of those periods where you had that kind of bear market and that kind of momentum turned higher, all of them were associated with a fed that not only might've thought about pivoting but actually pivoting with lowering interest rates, so that really is the solution here to the dilemma on the economies worchester data creating a faster pivot. >> we are a long way from where -- where the fed could be first
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to not pivot. if you go back and we worry about the 70s and the '80s that the fed did back then were thought i had conquered and it hadn't only to come back with a vengeance. tim wolfer came along and really drove it in. these guys, they know it. they are probably ready to not blink on raising as long as we are anywhere near 8%, 7%, 6%, 5%. when would you stop if you were the fed? >> i think we are looking at the wrong thing maybe. we are looking at inflation and on the core pc somehow the fed has let the narrative get away from the pce which is we are able and version of primary gains. again, i don't know that inflation gets back that is already coming down. you can see it for sure. i
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think what's really going to cause them to shift, we are in a midterm election year, the economy is slowing down by all measures and what we may want to watch is the second mandate which is employment. you look at the national federation of small businesses hiring plans in that they leave the unemployment rate by four months. it's coming down hard and when it does typically get a lift in the unemployment rate so if we get past september and october i think the test of the low comes from the pendulum going from good news is bad news, right in the middle on the suite spot to cause a summer rally. bad news is good news and it means the last aspect. eventually the pendulum swings into bad news. that should help create a real pivot from the dead as unemployment picks up. >> tony, when i look at the
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calendar i think of jackson hole midterm elections. september 13 is the --. is this what i should be focused on? i know you said it's unemployment but do i have my calendar right as far as what the market should be doing. >> i think if you do get a real good pin on inflation maybe it will give a bump to the market. the s&p and the brad market are down. interest rates are higher. the idea that somehow a fabulous print is going to magically create this return of the bull market -- again, we have all sat here and watched every day with the volatility now and i change my opinion about 40 times an hour.
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it comes down to the data and the data is clear. the market correlates with the direction of earnings. how do you get money availability coming into the market when we are at peak employment and money supply are so poor? >> tony, we will have to leave it there. pleasure seeing you. >> thanks for the compliment. that was great. >> thanks. i figure both of us -- if we both say it, people might buy it. let's trade this. karen finerman, what do you make of the action today -- i have a green tie on but that's at about it. >> there didn't seem to be anything panicky about today
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even though you know 600+ points is a bit of a move. it really isn't much of a -- at all. i think there is some more --. i think the numbers coming up tomorrow are important. i do think they will give us some kind of clue and now we get into the end of earnings and we will sort of be, what's the word, it will be macro stuff. it isn't my favorite thing but that's where we are. i think that the trend will be down. >> well, i don't what the new normal for the vicks is because we haven't got to those elevated levels through this
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entire selloff so it makes me think we need something really violent to get it to 35. >> i just think some of the market dynamics are also things we need to be paying attention to. if you look at s&p future, noncommercial shorts they have only been this high in the past 20 years. if you look at the wall of worry and if you look at cash levels they are still pretty high for a lot of people those are setups where actually you get some decent news out of jackson hole and a posture that may be what people want to hear. maybe it's not pivot but maybe it's less aggressive. >> very good. okay, we will go to break. coming up after the break we are all over the action in after-hours in zoom and palo alto. those names are on the move. we will bring you the numbers. plus, hilly mycroft, she will join us.
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she will lay out her case and what happening and where she sees fruit heading nt.ex don't go anywhere. fast money right after this. (man 1) oh, this looks like we're in a screen saver. (man 2) yeah, but we need to go higher. (man 1) higher. (man 2) definitely higher. (man 1) we're like yodeling high. [yodeling] yo-de-le-he... (man 2) hey, no. uh-uh, don't do that. (man 1) we should go even higher! (man 2) yeah, let's do it. (both) woah! (man 2) i'm good. (man 1) me, too. (man 2) mm-hm. (vo) adventure has a new look. (man 1) let's go lower. (man 2) lower, that sounds good. (vo) discover more in the all-new subaru outback wilderness. love. it's what makes subaru, subaru. what if you were a gigantic snack food maker? and you had to wrestle a massively complex supply chain
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welcome back to fast money. earnings alert on zoom. shares falling after the company reported that earnings were above a little but there was a slight miss on revenue. company also issuing week guidance for the corn current quarter and the full year. 9% drop. frank collins joins us with the latest. anything positive, frank? >> that self-guided appears to be what is waiting on zoom right now. even with revenue topping $1 billion, cfo kelly stemple berg sang the current -- was a major headwind on the call. >> the headwinds we saw remains
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to the strengthening dollar and two and a lesser extent of jack mack. we are focused on driving new online prescriptions but were not enough to overcome the macro dynamics. >> next quarter overall advanced metrics kind of miss. customer spending more than $100,000 of 38%, but net dollar expansion week, that is from current customers. that decreased to 120% this year. shares down more than 8% right now. >> 88, not near 357. just above a 50. we need another pandemic i guess, that's really crazy. >> we definitely don't need another pandemic, but can you imagine -- no, but 357.
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>> don't miss zoom cfo kelly steckelberg on that groundbreaking morning show . the longest running show. >> you are a hard-working guy by the way. that's a lot of work for you. >> thank you. >> this is what i say about zoom. at some point i actually thought it was interesting. i have nibbled in the stock and it has done almost nothing but i do have a small on position. 10% compounded annual growth rate, 10 to 15% over the next couple of years isn't really where the stock is still priced. it's roughly 32 or 33 times since 2023 or with 2024 numbers.
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they are trying stuff with rooms and phones and i just think that this is really the dynamic here. we haven't gotten the sense that they are more than a one trick pony. >> the good news is that -- look at this show for a proxy for that. what's it going to be? 15 or 20% of people in the workforce are going to work remote, indefinitely. not in the tv business, that's not accurate. some sectors of the economy won't be able to do it but there's going to be an outsized group of people in different sectors that will choose to work remote and this price of the stock, although it goes lower which makes the bulls a little uneasy, feels like it should be a buy at this level but he continues to slip through the bulls hands. >> lets you palo alto now. back to frank. stock surge after reporting a beat on top and bottom lines and issuing a strong revenue forecast.
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frank, it's been a while. how are you doing? >> i have been all right in that short time. palo alto chairs. they are surging on strong guidance for revenue and the cyber security company also announced a tran21 stock split. trading begins on a split adjusted basis on --. >> we expect this will start to have an impact on --. >> is a continuing debate on inflation. you saw some labor and other inflationary pressures. we do not anticipate these pressures going away in the next fiscal year. >> and again he believes supply chain issues will ease but
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placement will be a challenge. despite those challenges, palo alto with a strong quarter. that's customer spent on gross products like palo alto's next gen firewall and also above estimates. joe? >> he will appear on mad money coming up right after fast money. >> that's right. that's tonight. excellent. that's a huge move. after hours. this is not. almost 10%. let's trade palo alto. who wants to take a shot? >> die, what about palo alto? >> it's a name we talked about for years. best in class in the most important space i would argue
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out there right now and these threats will only get worse, not better over time and these people do it better than everybody else. the problem has been valuation and it is still a concern. if you can wrap your head around valuation whether it's price to earnings or price to sale i think you can continue to own this stock. i don't think you chase it up 10% a year. over time you have seen -- a number of times but if you want to be in the cyberspace this is the name to own. >> been a great stock karen. must be over 50. probably close to 60. >> that's very good. that was better than the high side. so, that's a --. this was better than --. the reaction is going to be a little bit outside versus zoom where i thought they were worse
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than hoped-for at that reaction was actually much bigger than i thought it would be as well. so, i don't know. >> things are fast on the show. there's a lot more. here is what is coming up next. well, on the move, crude taking big swings has potential. what's next for the energy space? the details next. plus big builder bats. results on deck and they're hoping for a strong foundation. how they are playing the name i had. you are watching fast money. live from the nasdaq market site in times square we are back right after this. maybe you could use the money to buy a step stool. i have a step stool.
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welcome back to fast money. crude oil makes a swing made day after the founding minister said that opec plus has to cut back on production as the voluntary and liquidity issues continue. we are joined by cnbc contributor helima croft. do we believe opec plus --? >> we just have this token increase the last opec meeting.
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president biden had been to saudi arabia. i think the expectation was we might have opec holding steady but i don't think people thought a cut was on the table. i do think today's statement caught people by surprise. >> what are these liquidity concerns? >> if you look at it, we have had major liquidation of net lines in the market. and from a standpoint the prince feel like it's exacerbating the market. that said i think the real interesting question will be does this really translate into any production policy change? the big issue was opec not
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hitting its production target. they were under performance. the question is will we see barrels coming off the cup saudia bravery of want to cut off on production. >> certain areas i am seeing the president is ready to give away the store on concessions to iran. weatherbee a deal and how much oil will not bring? >> administration officials are saying that they are still having hurdles to overcome but that they are closer than they were even a week ago. the big issue that i think needs to be focused on is even a president biden signs off and says we are ready to do this it goes to congress. i think that will be a very, very losing political right over this deal. especially because you just had salman rushdie stabbed, the
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cardmembers arrested for planning an assassination, i don't it's going to be an easy process to get it through congress. >> how about spare capacity? even if saudi and u.s. were on the same spot what could they actually do? isn't that ultimately really where the rubber hits the road? >> capacity is real. probably looking at 1 1/2 to 2 million barrels capacity with opec and this market has been held up because you have this major u.s. release. we have putting about 1 million extra barrels on this market. i think the most important story for the market is actually september 5th. does your the trigger on these russia sanctions? if they pull the trigger and basically do the embargo and also and the provision of shipping, if the u.s. goes forward with banning dollar
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clearing for this product, that means a tighter market but europe is facing an economic nightmare right now and the question is -- look that will happen in terms of -- will europe go forward with the sanctions? that to me is the wildcard. >> crude oil makes all the headlines and i get it. you look at the input cross for industry and metcalf is pretty high on that list so if we think inflation is --, it's telling a different story. >> i think nat gas is the most important story to be watching. look what is happening where we just keep breaking previous highs in terms of national gas. the russians are once again threatening to -- through nordstrom run through the end of the month. i think we have to fully expect that russia is going for a mutually assured destruction strategy with europe.
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you impose the sanctions on us and you continue to support ukraine, we are going to make this absolutely awful for you. i think this is probably the most important economic story to watch is what happened in europe, what happens with natural gas if russia really turns off the tap completely. >> thank you. let's trade this. i would buy 50% of --. >> i tend to think that all the issues that she is outlying are ones that don't rectify themselves anytime soon and even on the demand-side supply is more important. >> crude was in the 120 range. i thought that the politics of the trade were going to come in at the end of the year. i put a $65 target on wdi crew. that was down to roughly $90 in that area. i think the midterm elections
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-- i think that the politics will still come in and we will syncrude breakdown. and we are looking at 65 or $75 a barrel oil and i do agree that there is a sort of fictitious level that we are pushing this down to and it pinpoints all the time. this administration was keying off on crude and fossil fuels . it was rallying long before he russia and ukraine. >> one of the things that makes occidental so attractive is they pay down an enormous amount of debt. this is a cash flow generated. is beginning because again, companies are able to actually make a creative deal and they are not doing the deals that they were doing 10 years ago. i just get back to when i look
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at a exxon, they are run differently and i think you can be an investor in energy much differently. i think the gop geopolitics are a tailwind. the weighting of the energy sector is under 4%. at its peak it was over 16%. i think they have a ways to go there. >> why is that >> tell me? >> maybe a few local people going through. >> 50% where i live. 50% teslas where i live. >> energy did nothing for five years. i hear everything that guy and kim talk about, even karen, but i still believe it's priced to
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perfection at this point where you have had such an enormous outsize run in the energy space right now, i would be taking profits. >> i think they have to put chargers and waffle houses, that's my idea. it's a perfect synergy. if you are listening elon. coming up, amc sinking in today's session as the company's new class of shares debut our own karen finerman is digging into the details. we will also do an options open house and how traders are playing this one. fast money returns.
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welcome back to fast money. toll brothers continuing its trend lowering today. the stock down more than 7% this year. options are piling in ahead of earnings tomorrow. michael coe is here. >> that is slightly lighter than the 5%. they have reported
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the most active options for the week he 46 strike and buyers of those are betting that the stock is going to decline after earnings and they could also be hedging against a long position given the fact that the stock is in a weak trend. trading at a cheap valuation. >> thank you. t-bone. i'm not even going to explain it. i will just call you t-bone. tune into the full show on friday at 5:30 p.m.. coming up, the latest on amcs newest share offering. a finerman fineprint is next. plus social stoc tinitksakg on the chin. also where these names are headed, next. when fast money returns.
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whether anyone has been more right in more years or given more money away. we share something special and that is a love for big german shepherds. anyway, he has agreed and we are looking forward to that. that will be a highlight. that would be a highlight of delivering alpha. amc is one of the favorite stocks. our karen finerman is here with the fine print on this. why do buyers need to beware of what is happening at amc? >> this is ridiculous.
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it's smoke and mirrors for sure. he knows it. everybody knows it. basically he knows he needs to raise more money in the future. he knows but he also promised the shareholders he would issue more stocks but instead he issued magical stocks and that is what these ape's are. amc normally prefers to get the dividends. physically it's a stock split except he doesn't need your vote to issue more of these in the future. and since he told the shareholders i don't want to dilute you that's exactly what future magical ape shares will do. they are going to dilute you. he goes through this whole rigmarole of how great it is. i don't really get it. if i were a shepherd or
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shareholder i would be offended. he has done a masterful job of selling anything that he possibly could including an fts. it has been quite a -- to save this business and he has been able to do it time and time again. whether this will allow him to stay afloat but if you were a shareholder i would vote to not let him issue more shares. >> have the ape's heard you say this stuff karen? >> i don't have a lot of friends in the meme world. >> i will start following you just to see the excrement hit the air conditioner after that.
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coming up, social stocks getting hit hard in today's cell up. the details when fast when he returns.
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welcome back to fast money. social and mediums docs show even bigger losses in the broader market. media fair or even worse. netflix down more than 6%. warner bros. are the worst informer in the s&p today. julia boerner has been tracking the selloff today. she is here with the details. i guess we will never see lord of the rings merge with game of thrones. is that a bad idea? >> to pray many characters. different ip as they say. let's get back to the stocks. the streaming stocks are far underperformed. netflix shares losing about 6% on a downgrade from cfra. warning that netflix may underperformed the s&p 500 for
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the rest of the year. roku shares off about 4 1/2%. the warner bros. discovery finished at about 7/2%. despite the launch of house of dragons last night drawing rave reviews from audiences as well as from critics and then paramount also down 5% though it is still in -- in august. walt disney shares down about 3 1/2%. take a look at social stocks. snap is now down nearly 77%. meta-platforms also losing about 3%. twitter and pinterest talk about it. on friday morgan stanley --.
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sometimes you and he said just that. and i percent stake. 50 million youth that means to an billion dollars in class. i was going to do it once and then do the routine. he showed me how to do and that misses the whole point. if you are paying someone you have show up. that's the whole deal. if you are not paying them, you don't go. if i know he will charge me either way, shame you a little bit?
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final trait is sponsored by interactive brokers. time for the final trait. karen, quick. >> too early then but again now. >> guy?
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>> apa, you big stud. >> can? >> pfizer. tsc. sea of red. thank you for watching fast money. you know what's next. mad money with jim cramer. my mission is simple. to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i am kramer. i am just trying to make you some money. my job not to entertain but to educate and teach. i defy you to find many stocks that deserve to be down as much

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