of knocked him out of the game because you would not really succumb to a lot of what was going on in the markets right then, you can treat that is a capitulation or an expression of it doesn't make sense to me anymore, i'm oing to back away. >>'s legacy through the coaching tree. >> pretty strong.>> we will see you tomorrow. that is michael santoli. best money is right now. right now and fast money, housing boom to housing number, nightmare scenario, just what the fed wanted when they started to raise rates aggressively, we will talk about that. nordstrom falling off the rack after hours, cutting their full-year sales for overcast, forecast, going inside the numbers. later, a whistleblower a twitter, a former employee saying that executives misled

the board and the public about spambots, and more, twitter firing back, and elon musk, ditching his deal, in formalism lee, getting used to this but not too much. -- melissa lee. steve, karen and i didn't see you yesterday brian, crypto was a little bit better today, are you in a good mood? brian kelly. >> i am a little better. [ laughter ] >> what about the merge to me, i know what the purge was, bad movie, the surge, help me with the merge.>> if you got 90 minutes let's go. >> in the morning i do, 180 in the morning, the conundrum, a date left before central bankers convened in jackson hole, jerome powell is facing opposing forces on inflation, prices on essentials like

energy and food going up, and natural gas, although today was little better, going down as housing, stocks and bit coin, the nightmare before jackson hole >> do you like that joe? i know you get into those producer type of things. and by the way, i wanted to mention, it's not that i don't like sitting next to you, and it's like icarus got too close to the sun, you know what happened to him, so i'm staying away from your sunbeam. >> i get your excuse. >> it is an excuse, talking about it at length and now, things going down, things that we want, things are going higher that things unfortunately we need, they continue to have inflation in all the wrong places, they can talk it down all the one, but consider, -- pausing or

pivoting, the commodity market will get away from them leading to further inflation, meanwhile the data suggest things are softening, which is what they want, but the problem is both are happening at the same time it privity -- at pretty significant speeds and they can't control that. >> what other prospects were people listening to what happens in jackson hole and saying yes, i like that, think rick santelli said we will be happy. >> you have to navigate it properly, we are probably in agreement that there is absolutely zero chance, but they are dovish when jackson hole. you can't be at this point. elicit -- let's look at what happened, crew down, lumber down 65%, things have come down, housing coming down, but

they have to navigate, going to the point about the dollar, they have to be strong, they have to be hawkish, because if they back off a little bit, the commodities run backup, they have an inverse correlation to the dollar. i think we will be surprised at the downside cpi in september, they have a margin for error but they have to walk the game and talk the talk and be hawkish and maybe back off the hawkish actions. >> do you think they have the ability to follow through on the medicine that we really need? i was talking about earlier today, we saw through the financial rices how easy it was, not with jay powell but also the pandemic, maybe it was warranted but they've never had to be mean and take the punch bowl away, and you think they

have the ability to do that when the going gets tough karen?>> i actually do, they look back at 2018, that was a mistake, that they did not have the fortitude to keep going, and so i think things are different now, we've had the pandemic and balance sheets ballooning, so we have to get a handle on inflation. i think i points out the things going up but we also know any points out the things that are going down, but i think they are nowhere near in the zone where they can say all right, we are riveting. even if we interpret it as such, i don't things happening, i agree, no pivot and not dovish. >> unfortunately the market and the economy and the employment rate, would probably like a pivot, we don't want to slow down, we don't want a full fledged recession, do we, so i

almost wish there could be an early pivot, because i think near-term with the markets it would be easier, long-term would that be a bad thing brian, do we want more pain and do we really wanted to follow through to get up to where they are actually making a difference? what do you say the inflation is, pce, pci, ppi, which measure do use, is it 8% or 7% or were percent or 5%? >> heineken for him. [ laughter ]>> exactly. [ laughter ]>> what is the price of barley, that's what i look or. [ laughter ] i would say listen, nobody wants the party to end that 1:00 the morning when they turn the lights on, nobody wants that, and that is what has happened, the fit is told you since november we are going to be turning the lights on, it's last call. now the question is when do they pivot and have the over tightened.

we've seen the economy take a nosedive, i think they probably end up over tightening because they want to write inflation. i don't know what the inflation rate is but it is probably not 3%, where the two-year deal is, they told you repeatedly, they want the two-year yield to be above the rate of inflation, 2 year has to be 5% or so before this is over, and probably lower asset prices, we are seeing oil go up, not only a supply problem but in europe, the of gas and oil, we've got governments with subsidies, you won't have the demand destruction that everybody wants, higher energy prices which will keep the cpi inflation, whatever number you want, sticky, and that's a problem. >> and if it is norge stream one in germany and vladimir putin, and opec, which we are going to talk about, none of those things are within the feds control. maybe a little bit in terms of demand, but how do they tackle

something that is thousands of miles away, and a global market, and so this tool that they have, is such a blunt instrument, we have to kill our economy because of vladimir putin?>> i know you're an educated man, i will give you some shakespeare, uneasy is the head that wears the crown, it is tough, i am not the fed chair, i'm not a fed governor, they chose to do that and there's a lot of responsibility associated with it, those things were unforeseen without question, i know you know this, these were the same people for years that were begging for inflation because they thought somehow if they got it they would be able to control it, the cubist -- hubris around that is infuriating, unforeseen circumstances, too bad, figured out.>> a good point, the fed usually oversteps, we all

expect the fed to overstep and be more hawkish than the need to be. but having said that, you brought up a great point.>> i did? >> you didn't even know, that's how smart you are.>> wow. >> a third inflation is demand, two thirds is everything else they have zero control over. so the point that you posed to guy, what happens if they are wrong? what happens if this clears up, maybe it is not transitory but maybe it is not as long in the tooth as they think it would be, and then what does that result in? can you imagine two years at 5%, what you think the market is doing at 5% two years, forget about testing the lows, we are at new lows, you have to look at charts going way back to see where were going to be.>> i think you need to reset the 2%, what philosopher did you

mention yesterday?>> reni■ descartes i believe. i will throw philosophers at you all day long if you want. >> and you did spiderman's uncle. with great responsibility, power comes great responsibility. >> uneasy is the head that wears the crown, we can do an entire show. >> let's not. [ laughter ]>> diane is waiting, earnings alert, thank you, earnings alert on toll brothers, shares lower after a mixed earning report, from fiscal third-quarter. diana holick is here with the details. it shouldn't be affected by higher rates right, because it was not so much money to buy. >> it shouldn't be and it wasn't but apparently it is, amazon revenue due to softer demand, not surprising given that the high-end of the market, where toll brothers lives, has finally started to crack, contracts down 44

percent year-over-year, 60% by home count, cancellations from 3% a year ago up to 30% -- 13%. sharply rising mortgage rates, higher home prices, stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty but he added in more recent weeks we have seen signs of increased demand, as sentiment is improving and buyers are returning to the market. the weekly deposits in the first three weeks of august up 25% compared with july, did lower the guidance on home delivery, and in no commentary on this alert on prices coming down.> >> talking about whether were going to see this, we are in an early inning aren't we, for the slowdown? >> i think we are for the slowdown overall, see remark

seeing the demand coming back the last three weeks, we did see mortgage rates come down, they spiked backup last friday and backup closer to 6% this week, but maybe buyers get back and step back again, it all has to do with home prices and i do think you're going to start to see softening in prices going forward, which could of course in turn bring people back to the market, as we've always said, it was overpriced and overheated but there's still huge demand and low supply in this market. >> i want to know what you're going to do with this, should we buy it? [ laughter ] let's get to those numbers. [ laughter ] if i look at this, go back at the chart look at february 2020 levels in the homebuilders, gbh is the only one below that level, or substantially below. if you go back to february 2020, interest rates were a lot lower, should these stocks be higher or lower than they were

february 2020? i say lower, i would stay away from homebuilders, give them a little room to breathe and see how they react in a rate environment where we are trying to crush demand. >> anyone else feel strongly about this, karen?>> last question. >> go ahead. >> a little delay. karen? and then i will go to guy. >> the question for steve, i hear you but the chart, but they have made able to money in the few years since then, the stock is the same price, the value of the company's not the same price. >> yes, i'm a big fan of forward-looking versus rearview, the stock market is always a discounter of that, so i hear exactly what you're saying but how may people bought second homes during the

pandemic that are not going to be buying anymore second or third homes after the pandemic. how many will hit the market. the price of housing, still way too high.>> do you want to finish up? >> really quick, average delivery price, $937,000, significantly higher, to diana's point, a supply and demand thing, $44, go back five years in the talk was $44, the way to trade this, 10% below, you buy it 10% above you sell, and continue to do that and do that for toll brothers. a shocking problem in supply right now, paul sankey, runs his firm. no flies on me. and we had on the lot yesterday, the surprise notion that could be an open production cut after they

barely gave the president anything with 100,000 per day. is what you are saying based on that at all or other things? >> they did say we are out of spec capacity, we have a supply problem, i think there was frustration from the saudi's, the oil price had not come back as much as you mentioned yet, they see strong demand in a problem with supply and trading guys a problem between physical and paper markets, so much liquidity is out of the paper market that the price does not really reflect the physical market behind it. >> a long discussion on that this morning, opec or the saudi's, complaining about that, isn't it a cartel, that's what they do for living don't they? >> yes sure, they're trying to organize the price but the are saying is a disconnect between the prices on the screen and

what is out there in physical reality in terms of what they are seeing. >> given that we've seen progress, the equity markets rallied from june 16 on, because we thought inflation was moderating, if something hits the fan in germany and if decides, with what's happening now, ukraine assassinated his friends daughter, if things blow up in terms of what they do with the spigot to europe, that is totally out of the feds control in our control if energy prices spike. >> this is for sure, one thing the government here can do is the spr, they are pounding the oil market with as much as $1 million coming out of the emergency storage. we are at 100 today, is not working too well, very concerning. the nest toss of his hurricane season, who knows, we haven't had anything yet.

>> iran as a wildcard. >> they're going to try to bring the backend but it could take months, the government is keen to get on the market, 60 million or 70 million in stores that can come onto the market, people are saying the saudi are very bullish, $100, people are bearish thing saying you're wrong, iran can come back and. and the winter. we could get inflation coming back in further to what you are saying. >> new lows in the stock market, what about new highs in oil, do you think that will happen? >> we are kind of bullish and to 2023. i don't see too much above $150. >> we will see that again? >> yes. >> but that's a lot more than

$90 per >> the global supply picture is a mess, the saudis are telling you there's nothing left, the permian, $100 per barrel and the rate count has gone down, there's not a lot of coming from the u.s., only 10 countries can add 100,000 barrels of incremental supply, global demand, 102 barrels per second, when we look at the supply-side we say yes. >> what was the pushback then when oil was at $129, and a critter to $85, i think you would agree there was the same setup, the bullish scenario? >> no when i said $110 up to $150, you thought you lose 2 million barrels per day russia and gain 2 million from china,

we are 4 million bearish to the negative side and still at $100, so the summer passed very bearish lead to where we thought we were in march.>> they tell me things, and they soon seem very serious. and bk?>> listen, i'm with paul, the biggest supplier in the world said you know what, we don't want the price to go lower, we are going to cut supply, that's all you need to know.>> thank you paul. great to have you in, especially on the set . a little birdie at twitter whistleblowing and throwing another wrench into the elon musk battle, what is next for the social media stock, stick around to find out. after hours action, nordstrom on t me,heov after reporting earnings, we will bring you the trade down, almost 14%, pretty

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shares dropping after the department store slashed its revenue outlook for the year. the company did beat estimates on the top and bottom lines, but it is all about that, courtney, they went 5-7, they had been at 6-8 four revenue growth, for the year? because exactly, the revenue cut was not as drastic on the earnings cut was more drastic, nordstrom place like be the top and bottom, full-year profit forecast that is hammering shares, down about 14%. nordstrom said basically what they have to do is invest in the supply chain, discount the remainder of the year, the inventory that wasn't selling, it hopes that sets up for the longer-term. they are also adjusting for some of the soft trends they've seen in the lower income shoppers, in the nordstrom rack division, total inventory inventory was up 10%, pretty low compared to other retailers

this corner cut -- quarter. seeing the lowering consumer, the spending restraints in the higher income group, sing on the call, the highest of high prices for those products, they are selling the best, the division, the weakest, decelerating during the quarter, revenue ended up .3%, department store nearly 15% for the quarter, menz is the strongest, followed by shoes and women's apparel and beauty. >> that is weird, some things we haven't seen with some of the other reports, nobody is treating down, once again, a bifurcated economy, people that are not affected by inflation and the slowdown seemed to be doing okay, it's the low-end. >> it's interesting, even the luxury category, look at that, the highest part that is selling the best.

not the lowest prices there, nordstrom rack division, they started weakening throughout the order, not even at the customer, they were trading down, maybe these top coming in and buying as much, the high income is going higher with the purchasing. >> karen, what you make of that, we saw macy's earlier, seems like a little nuance here, is not the same is it? >> it's a little confusing, macy's cited bloomingdales strings, you think they would be more similar to a nordstrom customer. the magnitude of the cut on the second half, taking a giant hit, for the next two quarters, sort of surprising given that the inventory is courtney said, it's really not so far out of line, they did say private label, really aggressive on price, which is bad for all the other retailers. i'm surprised how badly they missed here, not quite sure

what exactly happened, i would've thought from macy's report that norstrom would've had a pretty decent corner. the guidance was week. >> the sales guidance wasn't that bad, if they don't have that much inventory to discount, why is the bottom line number so bad, they are not writing off like walmart and target, they had to discount so much inventory, are they telling us everything, they would tell us everything, would they karen?>> [ laughter ], i like to hear the call, how to the sound, was the body language, something is a bit off year, just going to be super aggressive and the possibility that maybe they want to set the bar very low, and they think they can do better than what they are guiding to. >> retail ceos have the hardest job, maybe they earned their money more, it's always hard, but i wouldn't know where to begin this far as what to buy

each season and discounting.'s>> that's obvious.>> could you do that? a hot topic. you might be able to do it. >> red pants. [ laughter ]>> i might be the guy.>> not so great at washing them, with cold water. >> telling me they should be read, doesn't explain that, anyway, we got to go, a lot more fast money to come, here's what is coming up next.>> more earnings on deck, options traders gearing up for nvidia tomorrow, the slope over or sliding, the trade ahead, bad news for the bird, former head of security blowing the whistle, alleging big problems with spambots and privacy. what does this mean for elon musk legal battle with the social media company, we will

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when life's doors open, we'll handle the house. welcome back to fast money, shares of twitter taking after accusations of quote extreme and egregious inconsistencies in security protocols, from the former head of security, made public. joining us now with the details, this was about lots of things but there was a lot that slowly surfaced i think, tell us about it.

>> national security in their foreign spies in there, the whistleblower is twitter's former head of security, peter zatko, he is also a hacker known by mudge, new -- twitter new about those data breaches, and the plane also says the company prioritize user growth over reducing spam and executive stood to make bonuses themselves, $10 million tied to increases in daily unit -- users but not limiting spam. hired by jack dorsey in late 2020 but fired in late january of this year, in a statement to cnbc, a twitter spokesperson said this, he was fired from a senior executive role in twitter of january 2022 or ineffective leadership and corporate torments. what we have seen so far is a false narrative about twitter and our security data practices, inconsistencies and inaccuracies and lacks important contacts.'s

allegations and opportunistic timing appear designed to capture attention and inflict harm on twitter, it's customers and shareholders. in a separate interview aired on cnn, his team said he did not have contact with elon musk, who is in the battle with the acquisition over twitter, raising an interesting question of how closely elon musk will dovetail his efforts going forward, they said they submitted a subpoena for zatko and information he might have. >> i don't like that they are on cnn anonymous, but never mind. left back >> objection noted. >> and why, the allegations are from the twitter whistleblower, can ultimately help elon musk, according to axios, and dan is here on cnbc, hello dan. it has to be good probably for elon musk, but the discussion

we had this morning was there is this notion that he said i'm buying it the way it is, and it would have to be unbelievably different than what he was aware of at the time, has it risen to that level yet? >> on the bot issue no, that's what the most interesting thing about the whistleblower issue, when it comes to the bot issue, which is what he's been arguing for the last several months, i don't think it particularly helps them, there's a line in there which suggest that twitter is this incentivized to lie about the mda use, it doesn't help them from a revenue standpoint, at least to lie to advertisers about it. but there's argument that twitter has violated the consent decree with the doj and the fcc, in 2011, if that were true, in theory, it would have to be verified and something would have to happen, there could be a huge fine from the government, that could be material, elon musk might have

a new front in his argument based on the whistleblower complaint that has nothing to do with lots.>> man, he's got his horseshoe up his nose. so that could work for him. terrible emily day guy, great technology guy. but is he really going to -- that could happen, that would be amazing. >> a colleague said along the lines of today, if you gamble enough you sometimes get really lucky, that might be where he is at.>> go ahead.>> i apologize, i know your father is extra ordinary close there, test the is up, how bullish on the margins is all of this for tesla, not asking you to play stock market but that's clearly what's going on? >> very much in the margins, the reason is, he would necessarily have to sell more stock, and nothing do the

whistleblower, twitter has been asking for more information, on the equity backers, contributing in theory to a twitter deal, all twitter and anyone has seen his name and amount, we don't know how solid those commitments are, in other words we -- if he was forced to do the deal, do they have to participate at that point or can they bail, that information, tesla shareholder point of view. would come out, they don't know how much he would be personally on the deal. where he forced to do it.>> and on-time trial and everything else.>> i would think it could be. and september, and there hasn't to my notion -- to my knowledge

has been requesting that yet. >> thank you for coming on dan, the world leader in business news seems like an obvious place to discuss this, appreciate that. pk, can i talk to you about this. and i know you have a comment.>> and in the sense that declares of the uncertainty, every day you have the sword of damocles hanging over, and the other bidders, commit with the cash. clear that, and you can kind of stand on its own merits. the whistleblower thing is a different story, the maren siu think they are, are real, aren't as real as we thought, and getting him out of the picture is better and not

worse.>> that's interesting. >> 7%. would you put in the by order on twitter at 89, like an arbitrage by. >> it is interesting. i was short, fired on friday, would've been good for me if it happened friday but that's okay. certainly this introduces uncertainty, which is great for elon, they wanted time before the trial, things happen sometimes, and maybe gets lucky, those might be one of the times. i'm not sure this rises to a material adverse change, i don't know if the court will delay to discover the issue but if it does, and he's able to walk, and the issue, the stock i think goes to the 20s. a qualifier right here. >> that's what i mean. it would almost be like in

arbitrage, that he would have to buy it, the only reason you would do that at 39 that i can think of. thank you all. one end all. did you have any comments?>> i would be a buyer there. there you go. >> coming up, ipo known, drastic slowdown in a once red hot ipo market, how much of a problem? nvidia, what can investors expect. stick around and we will be right back. ♪♪ hey dad, i'm almost out. i got you. any questions, chris? all good, thanks maura!

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welcome back to fast money, making headlines today, after intel secured $30 billion in funding for the new chip factory, saying that the deal with canada's brookfield asset management can be the first of many. sticking with chips, nvidia, results due after the bill tomorrow, the stock down more than 40% this year after a heck of a run, options traders

are plugging in ahead of the report. and let's go mike. and single stock options, the contracts overall, the options market implying a move of 6.4% by the end of the week following earnings. and 180 calls. and those traded, and average price, buyers are obscene betting the stock will rally through the 180 price, by at least 2 1/2 dollars, that they played, hoping for a bounce after the announcement we got a couple of weeks ago.>> always exciting when nvidia posts, and guys, what would you be doing? >> cook will be where, i'm not sure what the t-bone thing is i'm sure it's really but i will never bet against mike: in

terms f what he's seeing, and the back of them for gaming, sort of game over. and cheap, and the bounds, 185 and all 190 level, you take the money and run.>> wasn't guy around, jason alexander, was cocoa, he wanted to be , t-bone is open. and the t-bone, i am giving it to you. >> i have to stick with cocoa, the cocoa that guy is referring to is not the same one from seinfeld, we're talking about a wrestler i think. >> t-bone is so cool, coco is the chimp. >> a t-bone for lunch. i'm that kind of guy. [ laughter ] >> have to check on some of that, still on, you can see him

on peacock in fact, thanks mike, for more action, full show friday at 5:30 pm eastern, coming up a drastic slowdown in ipos, the formerly red-hot market is facing the worst year in two decades, the impact could be felt more broadly in the start of world cup we are going to discuss that when fast money returns in two minutes. when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim® even better, we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim® web. because platforms this innovative aren't just made for traders -they're made by them. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade finding the perfect designer isn't easy. but, at upwork, we found her.

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welcome back, the ipo market is going through a drought in 2022, companies have only raised about $4.5 billion, down more than 95% from the same time last year. puts us on pays for the slowest ipo market in two decades and unfortunately it affects us directly here at the nasdaq, because we get bacon when there is an ipo, and there have been no ipos and very few breakfast in the morning for the staff.

there is a serious comment on this, slim pickings right now. over the ipo.>> no idea you had bacon. five days a week if i had known that. thanks for that. >> ipo days. disclosing that. >> i will check my calendar for the next one, but will tell you, you mentioned earlier, it impacts the venture capital world, this is their exit plan, if you don't have that, he goes down the food chain, talk about the banks, getting a little bit of boost from the yields right now but part of the evaluation appeal was that they had this whole investment banking business around them, and if that is starting to falter in looking at a >> economy, i've got potentially some hired default rates concern of that,

investment banking is weak, the only thing you've really got is higher interest rate, but the curve is flat, goes further into the investment bank money than anything else.>> is it lagging, or leading, what would you want to see to see that the market itself is improving. the market is always good, for when we are partying, when equity is going up, do you think it is bottoming out?>> i don't think so, the market has a little bit lower to go, i would say it is a leading indicator of real estate, a lot fewer bankers out there buying apartments.>> you cannot have a booming ipo market, until the fed stops hiking rates. to your point. the ipo market is correlated to risk markets doing well and

being frothy. >> we have no clarity and no timeline on when that will be back. and j.p. morgan.>> they think the answer to inflation is increasing supply, you want investments and risk taking, the fed is really hurting what might be the solution to some of the issues that we have. it is backwards. can you say that?>> you covered all of your bases. >> everybody okay with that. i look to you for a lot of the stuff.>> i'm fine, i think it was scintillating conversation right there, ending with that little vernacular that you through in.>> i think reni descartes coined that term if i'm not mistaken. remembering a titan on wall street and the generation of hedge fund managers that he

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we mark the passing of a legendary figure on wall street, we all knew this guy, to come on the squawk box,

hedge fund titan julian robertson, dying at the age of 90, or two decades he that one of the largest funds, tiger management, posting average annual returns, staggering, of over 30%, he became known as a mentor for a generation of invest is who affectionately became known as tiger cubs, you know a lot of the guys if we mention them. starting tiger with just under $9 million in 1980 and by the late 90s grid to more than $22 billion and in 2000 he closed his six tiger funds, a wrong way bit on the end took is asset down sharply, after he close the funds he went on to see many young managers in exchange for their profits. >> he truly could be tough but so genuine, that southern accent, such a sweet man. >> you called him the godfather

of the modern hedge fund, very thoughtful man. >> and very fun fabric -- philanthropic. 1980, started a hedge fund, brilliant idea, returns north of 30% works ordinary, great investor as well but the idea of him being so good at spotting talent is also pretty amazing, the list as you said, john griffin, steve mandel, chase coleman, there are so many of them, he was greeted that as well, and is just an extraordinary legacy. hats off to him.>> guy?>> sorry for the noise in the background, i got to meet him in the 90s, a real gentleman, university of north, served in the navy, larger-than-life vigor, you meet someone like that and you don't forget it, his legacy will live on forever. probably a top 100 hedge funds

out there, for dozen of them have some ties to julian robertson in tiger, ace that day but he lived a wonderful life. acre he did. 90 is a life well lived, but you know, it doesn't matter that your 90, we do mourn his passing and we send the best to his family, your final trades are up next.

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already, time for the final, karen? >> thinks her being here joe, target came back $23 last 10 days, reloading target here. >> guy?>> i love you, i miss you, love watching you in the morning, and stay in the space >> little bit disappointed. i will be back.>> the energy play. exxon mobile.

eight dollars. >> you have a trade? >> i'm going against the herd. xle. cell energy. >> thank you for watching fast money. >> kramer is next with mad money. >> my mission is simple. make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market some where. mad money starts now. >> hello. i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. it's my job. call me. you could alet