eight dollars. >> you have a trade? >> i'm going against the herd. xle. cell energy. >> thank you for watching fast money. >> kramer is next with mad money. >> my mission is simple. make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market some where. mad money starts now. >> hello. i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. it's my job. call me. you could also tweet me.

>> this is almost a given that you are doing poorly in a post pandemic world. we need to adjust to the new world and explain there are some things in the marketplace. this is wreaking havoc with the markets today. the dow is that 151 points. it is pretty flat. at one point it was ugly. >> sometimes the hangover is so obvious. last night zoomed reported another use. what a long stream of many since the vaccine kicked in. this was like kleenex. it's a familiar thing. you can't seem to get beyond it. then the consumer business

week, a lot of people thought the enterprise business was hanging in there. no. in reality zoom is getting smoked by microsoft teams. microsoft is a vicious competitor. they just don't seem like it. they don't seem to realize what's wrong. it's almost existential. the pandemic is really waning. you almost never say you need to wear a mask. the zuma people can get this. nothing could be further from the truth. >> you can say they have no choice. zuma zoom. what else are they going to do besides. they zoom. i want to try to reinvent yourself. >> they had the contact center. i was over one year ago. you could argue there was nothing out there that could fit the core competency..

hundreds of venture capitalists that would dovetail into the house of zoom. or they could have simply important partnerships. why not draft things. we can play against each other in a group of people. then it's a stunning failure not of their original buyout which was great. the inability to imagine something bigger or at least a fallback plan if the stock deal went under. it became obvious as the stock refused to move. i don't want to just blame zoom. how about doc you sign. it signed contracts digitally. it has failed to become more than his old self even though sitting on cash. there are so many identities

that it is just painful. where does it say that:you sign has to be:design resume has to be zoom? i'm not asking you to become conglomerates overnight but it does seem that all zoom wants to be a zoom. and all doc you sign was to be a doctor design. it has been more than two months and they have no ceo since the last one stepped aside. someone could reinvent this thing with all sorts of security option to go with the signing. no, it is the same thing that made the stock skyrocket two years ago. they have no imagination. those of the well-known disappointments. however, it is the secondary post-pandemic losers that are really frustrating to me. take the stock of clorox. here's a company that was given a cash cow. an injection of consumer wealth. a covid handout and all that is

happened is the cash business have declined to 183 million now. even if they have not done anything to make the balance sheet better, surely clorox could've used the wipes windfall to double or triple burt's bees. and how about elka beauty, a cosmetic company that is doing so well. they have natural and organic products. you have a purchasing thing and expand hidden valley ranch or cell that and mccormick will probably buy. and moving to an area adjacent to charcoal, what about traders. you can buy that company for next to nothing and expand into

wood pellets. this is a rocket silence. there is a windfall and you better do something with it. >> i really like that idea. that's really good. i know you are nodding. >> then there are companies that seem to not get it. take the rails and the airlines. let's focus on this. >> this is always happening. they used to hire people and lay the mouth. they laid people off during the down sword. some of them they kept waiting forever for those people to come back rather than finding new hires. if you are in the airline business can you recognize that we are short polyps and now mechanics? >> can't they face what's going on. come on. why do they keep hoping the old people will come back rather than understanding that it is not happening and start doing the poaching and retraining. don't tell me these people can't take the hit.

pay much more. that is the real issue, isn't it. move on. i am stunned that so many cases have changed thanks to covid. nothing is permanently done. we dressed down during the plague. now we dress up and go out. we want to put clothing behind us. not like we did in covid. don't you know that. these companies listen to each other's losses. should they know better? >> so many tense moments. who is coming to work and who is staying home. we all hear that a lot. at this point i would say those situations are getting few and far between. >> those people have moved on to other passions. some enterprises totally get it. cisco is doing good. they are getting the chips they need. they accommodate when it comes

to where you get your work done. i wish the palo alto conference call or i remember him being the first ceo to see this and he said things would never be the same and his company capitalized off of it. a stock jumped 61 points today. automaker should be able to take the next step as well. they didn't understand their own supply chain. they had not figured out how they actually built new digitized cars. it was like it was in an analog world. the market was going to be changed. they are chipmakers. they had already told them to tear the amount of video games. at this point they could have solve the shortage. >> it has not been long since

the pandemic ended but we are quick to blame congress or the fed. we would be in a much better situation if the private sector had been proactive about transitioning to a post covid world are they really have not done a good job. it is not too late for some of these outfits that are sitting on big piles of cash to reinvent. they just can't seem to point the camera at themselves and see the truth. and in indiana. >> thank you for all you do. >> thank you. >> so i have some things on twitter. i trimmed all the way up and i am in a perfect world just waiting for my catalyst of a settlement? >> i'm glad you brought that up. we're doing a lot of new things.

you won't believe all the things that come in this trial. it's not just an email. i will tell you that twitter is now down to 39 because of the whistleblower we read about the day. i would not sell at this point. there's nine points downside in 15 points upside. that's enough to be compelling. i don't think it is worth 39 to sell twitter. i thank you for the kind words. nine down, 15 up. >> we are quick to call the feds out for creating too much money during the pandemic. we would be in a much better position had companies been proactive into transitioning into the post covid world. >> investors are starting to see the market shaping up like 2001 and 2008. those were bad years. the comparisons howled anyway? >> what about the objective in

the market? you might learn otherwise. and then we will see what the enticing find is. stay with kramer. >> when hurting feet make you want to stop, it's dr. scholl's time. our custom fit orthotics use foot mapping technology to give you personalized support, for all-day pain relief. find your relief in store or online.

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>> a pool park started late last week. they hit lowe's in mid june as the rally continued we started hearing a certain kind of call increasing in frequency people playing out the action this year dares to be untamed and go back to 2001 2008. very bad times for averages. don't get me started off. the implications that we are following the footsteps of 2001 and 2008 means you need to take a page and get out. >> could be similar to what we saw in 2001 and 2008. it's almost eerie. >> so tonight i want to take an

honest look at this comparison. it do it with an open mind. get a fair shake and see if it makes sense. >> let's start with the charge with the similarities. as of late nights close the s&p was down 13% for the year. is about 23% and then rebounded 13% from its lows. how does that stack up? in 2008 it was down 12%. it rebounded in late august. i'd call that very similar. the s&p was down nearly 12% in august and fell 62% and bottom then then rebounded through late august. that would be a huge problem if you play the trajectory. at the end of the year the s&p did lose 30% of its value as lehman brothers folded.

then there was a 17% increase. full recovery for the end of the year. again, that was in the thing. the tragedy of september 11th and the market did not find its footing until more than a year later. it sounds pretty scary, doesn't it? >> anyone making this comparison is trying to scare you. it could be the whole ml of the chattering classes. are they going to be right this time? we need to run with this. the charts look similar but that doesn't tell you much. preferred stock scott plus today. >> just today. so let's dig deeper. this year we have been working over a overheated stock market. we expected it to explode

higher. we have the worst inflation in decades. it will pay for any and every stock and that is the correct thing to do. it is fueled by disruptions of supply. the federal reserve has gone back since last november and they have given us rate hikes and to triple rate hikes. the fed is not done. we know there are a few more rate hikes left, we just don't know how big they will have to be. they might know something and then we will get this. the one upside is that the market has already had a huge decline. the average name currently trades at 18 times earnings. get this, at its lowest in june

it got down to 16 was quite cheap and we got a huge rebound. i don't know. i think that low is behind us. anything can change because it brings us to 2008 and 2001. at this point in 2008 we were already in a selloff and people were just realizing that the banks were in serious trouble. remember, i was ranting at the fed and do nothing. >> they know nothing because they didn't see this severity in 2007. in 2008 bear stearns was in the rearview mirror. the market held up just fine during the five months after that but there were real problems under the surface that were not talked about. at the same time they were cutting interest rates but not rapidly enough but by the end of the third quarter 14 times earnings.

many money matches felt the deep earning estimates were way too high. >> what about 2001? >> more similar. it peaked a year and a half before and we were still unwinding the excesses of the.com era. the fed had already finished hiking inflation and they started cutting rates aggressively. in 2001 the average stock finished at 20 times earnings. keep that in mind. look at these two years through august. we were in very different points of the business cycle as we are now. they were giving rate cuts that is nothing like the current moment. the economy is still healthy and they went to cool things down more. the big differences there were destabilizing methods. i don't see a parallel.

in 2001 it was 9/11. is it possible we could have a black squat event to wreck everything? >> of course. anything is possible. maybe the war in ukraine will go beyond its course and we will be in world war iii with russia. maybe the chinese economy collapses. all bets off. >> maybe the vaccines will not be able to handle the new strains. i think it is ill advised to compare this to 2008 or 2001. i pulled my horns last week when i saw stocks wording in bed bath and beyond. they are doing pullbacks and

that's what i told you. unlike many others i think it is highly unlikely but i would have to change my mind. here's the bottom line. unless something terrible comes out of nowhere of feeling savvy about this market. it's not 2008 and now 2001. it is near done and the bull market is in force and it will resume again. mad money is back after this break. >>

how do we get our arms around this frustrating moment. right now the stock market is like a chemotherapy patient. we have a cancer called inflation and the reserve is trying to kill the cancer desperately. the treatment also hurts the economy. the diagnosis is not better but retail collapses all over the place. we don't know how aggressive the fed will be going forward with it makes it hard to figure out where the market is headed. i find the fundamentals are murky so we are going to go to the chart. a brilliant technician who has been programming training systems for all sorts of funds since the early 80s. he has an incredible grasp of the big picture. he was personally recommended by larry williams. right now he feels relatively good about the market.

results are near ugly crosscurrents if they worsen he would change his views. i want exposure to all these different thoughts. i think they are so important. let's start with employment. one on one driver. the employment to stock price is incredibly strong. there are a lot of different ways of measuring the elephant that is employment. you look at jobless claims. we get them every week. the data is timely. when you're looking to continue his jobless claims they are subject to insane revision. this goes back to 1980. this is risk on and off model. it blooms. his model says you go along when the 39 week is dipping to a new low and you have to go negative when it starts making new highs. these are buy and sell triggers.

he's betting 1000. since 1980 he identified these on the s&p 14 times. it has been right every single time. even if there are moments where you are nervous. right now he says the continuing claims data is in full mode. we're worried about the recession but we have a strong labor market here. that is good news for the economy even if it makes raising rates aggressive down the road. they also offset some of the damage. employment is not the be-all and end-all. you also have to keep an eye on earnings and dividends and the markets overall valuation. so check out this chart of the s&p 500. look at the s&p earning yield, the 12 month earnings per share divided by the share price along with the yield and then he compares them to the yield

you get from treasury bills. going back to 1980 the valuation opened 18 times. it is not perfect but it is right 16 out of 18 times. his valuation model would've kept you out of the crash avenue 87 and the financial crisis. that's pretty good. in the late 90s you could've made a lot of money but other than that i'm saying this is pretty good. the valuation model says it's a by market. it's in this mode. this is a very big but, if you want to get graphic it's a different strategy and we also have some disturbing big picture negatives. check out this chart which shows the s&p 500 and inflation- adjusted earning for share going back to 1880. right now he points out that inflation is negative this

year. that is a bad sign. going back to world war ii inflation-adjusted earnings has always spelled trouble for the stock market. even in 87 crash which was mostly about the market getting overheated. we sell inflation from adjusted earnings go negative a few months before the meltdown. this is not good. as for right now, this is not some blip. this note that adjusted earnings have been negative. inflation is high in corporate earnings is big. some other models are positive but the signals -- i'm calling

anthene says you need to get out. that is not happened yet and we really have not gotten close. not even yesterday when the action was pretty ugly. with that, any pullback's are buying opportunities. the charge suggests that this market will drift higher in a

few months as long as employment stays strong. please don't get complacent. the signs of all not being well will come in the final third of the year. in week start with victor in california? >> it's a pleasure to talk to you. i want to thank you. you are great for retail investors. >> that's what i want to be. thank you. because of you i decide to buy more game stock in bed bath and beyond. >> okay. alice in oregon. >> yes. you missed the notoriety of having your daughter live in our state. >> she might be back someday. she loves it there. what's going on? >> could you help me. i have had this high and had a low. it's a 52 week low. can you give me some direction? >> until -- until they start

actually making real gap money, actual earnings, i think it will remain undervalued but not to go higher. i thank you for the kind words about me and my daughter. thank you. >> good afternoon. >> what about sol five? >> it's too cheap. i don't know when it will turn. i know a lot of people think it is down 50% and it's a loser so they will sell it until the end of the year. i think it is too cheap to sell. okay. the charts suggested this market will go higher for the next few months as long as employment stays solid. okay. i did my homework. i'm ready to turn in my research on the stock that you asked about and you will notice one shocking pattern i will

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go we are always on the hunt for good ideas. sometimes we get them from you. last thursday had a question from alice about at work. i promised we would get a closer look. do you know what? it looks pretty good. >> not great and not necessarily perfect but i

really do like this. so this an industrial manufacturer of electrical products and is for the renovation market. they also have a similar residential construction business. lots of conduits and cables. on top of that they make safety and infrastructure products for an market. their reason i wasn't familiar with this. it's a small operator, not consumer focused at all. with that said, they are the number one or number two player in most of these products and i like that. they have some history. they used to be part of tyco and then he broke the business up in 2010. he sold the electrical and metal products business to private equity for $5 million and that was ad corp. in 2015 they took a public.

the deal was not particularly well received. for his first four years as a publicly traded company it was a dog. can you imagine. the stock would have an occasional rally and then it went back to $22. it was stuck there. by the time 2019 rolled around good news for businesses like this one then the stock doubled jumping to $40 by the end of the year. then the covid crash it and guess where it went back to? >> $20. >> by 2020 we were seeing a fabulous boom in all sorts of construction and anything related to aquila did well. they were in short supply. that is how they went up to 106 steam i would've loved to have gotten a call here. then the stock has become more erratic. they held up surprisingly well.

in june it lost 35% of its value over just two weeks because of recession fears. it struggled to gain traction ever since. why? because anything connected to construction has a hard time. you need to know that ab core is a metaphor for stock construction people say sell. last year was huge. for the 2021 fiscal year which ended september 2021 they had 66% revenue growth in 250% earnings. a little of that came from small acquisitions. mostly organic. it was year-over-year, the same company. last year the average selling price was up 55%. the earnings was much smaller than the revenue growth which is not what you would expect if this was just about shortages causing higher prices. these were also influenced by

cool. they're benefiting from a broader electrification. i know these terms always get me suspicious but megatrend. it is risen by alternative energy. the data center is being billed and they need cables and conduits. bill watts talked about the automation of warehouses and data centers. all the internet lines to set up virtual teaching during covid. there is more electricity needed than they had just a few years ago. then you throw in solar power which requires a parallel power grid and many states are hardening infrastructure in order to cope with more extreme weather. they are moving electrical lines underground and they could have fiery global

warming. they made be the play. that is a pretty compelling long-term story. the problem here is that the short-term is that it will take a real hit in a recession. that is why the stock has come down from highs. right now the business remains excellent. they turned in a string of beat and raise. they delivered a nice top and bottom line with management raising therefore your earning forecast. their biggest import cost has come down. when the fed first went on the warpath aquila rolled out guidance for this year they talked about doing $650-$700 million in earnings. this is big. they went to 1.3 billion. double what they thought they would make in november. they only introduced to sales forecast through may. now

they're saying it's going to be about 32%. if they are printing money why is this stock down versus where was training when the forecast was made? >> honestly, there is no problem right now. there is an expectation of a problem in the future like so many other stocks we talk about. they have a lot of exposure in places like construction which means they could get slammed an old legitimate recession. they also have residential construction exposure which is worse right now. the question is, how bad will it get? at the end of the day they have a low-priced to learn multiple. it's one to two times in this year's forecast. usually is 18 times for the entire market and it has zero confidence in things going forward. i like this. unlike your

typical industrial company they have digitization and the energy thing and they should be a huge beneficiary from the root inflation reduction act. it should make a bundle as we build out electrical vehicle charging station. the stock is down since then. i think this is probably wrong. there is also the infrastructure bill that passed which had a lot of money for hardening the electric grid. and also good for ad corp. don't forget about the chips. the new domestically built plants will need a lot of their product. they plummeted for more than $20 this year and the stock is still selling at 7.5 earnings. that is nuts. especially when you say they have a great track record.

i think it is mispriced. i think ad corp. could have a tough time over the next six months because nobody really wants to own a cyclical stock at this point in the business cycle. long-term i think it is a great story. you have my blessing to buy some if you think we are headed for mild recession otherwise we don't often get that all clear whether call until it is too darn late. shedding light on ad core, i like it. mad money will be back in just a few minutes. they said it couldn't be done. because the big drug companies have billions of dollars and an army of lobbyists. but aarp has never run from a tough fight. they stood with their 38 million members

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>> it is time for the lightning round. are you ready? let's go. craig in ohio. greg. >> hey, greg. i'm here from the buckeye state. okay. what's up? >> nucor is almost as cheap and has a better record. it's a cleaner seal producer and that is what we want right now. let's go to jack. >> jack. thank you for your help. >> i want to add this company to my dividend income holding.

>> i was just reading about them. rbn this morning. i think that is a great stock. i wanted to add it to the bullpen for the investing club. let's go to john in texas. >> john? >> hello. peak energy. >> that going to work. >> how about pablo in michigan. paco? >> hello. a shout out from michigan. how are you, my friend? >> i want to go to lake michigan. note to self. what's up? >> i have shares with devon energy. i'm you need if i need to add marathon? >> no. we went over that in our morning meeting. we continue to

like devon. we think that will go higher. that is the horse to bet on. joshua in minnesota. >> yes. how are we doing? >> could be better. thank you for asking. how about you? >> very well. thank you. >> have a question on as a wife. lithium. >> that is canadian. they don't make any money. we have to stick with moneymaking companies. we need to go to audie and virginia. >> audie. >> hello. are from virginia. >> okay. i love it down there. what is going on. the bso? >> flagstone. i don't know. you don't know what, i have not seen that. i did love it because my friend loved it. it was doing incredibly well. we are going to double down on that. john in california? >> hello.

well, i was a great homicide reporter at one point in my career. what is going on. >> i had dead money weighing down my portfolio. should i keep holding onto no.? >> that is dead money. i'm done with them. i want that reinvested and some things we like from the investing club. let's go to pat james. patrick? >> thank you for taking my call. i appreciate all you do. thank you. >> okay. rocket launch. >> no. were only interested in how we can make money.

i could call it losing money. were not losing money. i like to call mad money like mad making money. let's go to caleb in louisiana. >> hello. what you think about horner around corporation? >> i refused to make this 17 years show into mad losing money. i want to make money. that is the lightning round. >> it is sponsored by td ameritrade. >> coming up, hello, turn that frown upside down. kramer is a cautious cat. is the state of the union better than we like to think? more coming up next. >> when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim® even better, we listen.

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it's whittle whistleblower and serious allegation. plus canceling student loan debts. the news is just minutes away. >> the news with shepard smith is next on cnbc. >> maybe we are just consumed with self hatred. i see that because i get up early. psychotically early. then i turn on the tv. whatever the market is doing bad we mimic that market. therefore problems that have

action could go all over the globe. one market hug the open. you can argue that there are plenty of problems. jimmy carter style knowledge hangs flow. that is just poor vibes. it is not reality. in truth, we are much better off than the rest the world. let's say germany. the other day the german stock market was down just because they were down we went down. we rallied hard. it makes no sense to be down to begin with. why should we trade like germany. they have ridiculous energy cost. they can't fuel their economy. good shut down the whole country.

they want to go green and safe. they made big solar investments but it's one of the worst places in the world for solar panels because it's not that good. >> let's say china is off of%. so we have to go through the same song and dance. we opened down and then go flat and then rally. it seems to be on the extreme zero policy that has wrecked their college to me. china also has terrible droughts causing have vicks with shipping and they have thanks that are looting. they're blowing up unfinished building because there is not enough demand. maybe they can put unfinished billing there and keep the economy on life support. and check your twitter feed. they go down all the place. sometimes people run all over the place to avoid being blown

up by the building. why should our market be down as much is there market? it is defying any reason. this goes on every day. sometimes it's down a half a% because natural gas is $70 one is nine dollars here. >> britain, holy cow they are in trouble. expensive energy and labor shortage thanks to breakfast. down .9% and then week come in down one% because of them. that just happened. why does this happen? >> we can't possibly believe that we are in better shape than the worst acting market. or at the moment, some hedge funds thinks it is 2008 all over again because the charts looks similar and the manager presses the bed in thin, early morning trading. i say wake up. we have the strongest

government. we have fast earnings and the least exposure from all those other stupid markets. i'm not pointing to judy garland and saying come on get happy. i'm saying we are doing better than almost everyone else even if no one else wants to it's a big primary election night in florida and new york. i am sheppard smith, this is the news on cnbc. choosing a democrat to face governor, ron desantis. in new york, moderates versus progressives in the race for the house that could charter a course for the general election in november. a whistleblower says twitter's security problems are so bad, they are a risk to privacy and national sury.