costco >> shan, why do you choose it? >> limited skus, and people go there for a million different reasons. >> great cashier at costco, my shoutout -- [ laughter ] >> benioff and slootman tonight on "mad. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott it's mission critical for the market there is one stock reporting today, that can determine where the market goes next at least the nasdaq. the name, how to position and where to find value. plus the latest read on housing. we're finally seeing home prices fall in many areas we look at where, by how much,

and what it means for the overall for the state of real estate peloton's prime move will it be enough to appease investors? and retail, what is needed to right the ship we begin with today's markets, and bob pisani hey, bob. >> good morning -- good afternoon, tyler take a look at the major averages right now s&p, nasdaq, essentially flat for the month, we're between a trading range on the s&p we don't have -- there's too much uncertainty out there we'll see what goes on here. in terms of what's moving, we have a weak day overall, weak

report from nordstrom, that's really weighing on retail. autozone was the same thing. it's weighing on some of the competitors. macy's is still on the down side gap also weak today. energy stocks keeping moving up. this is not good for the bulls they are proxies for inflation when you see occidental, that's a new high, and the stocks that are very related to natural gas activity, lie eqt, devan is a big company, the bulls don't want to see that semiconductor, it's really uncertain. gaming has been weak, data centers are kind of unsearch intel, that's a new low one of few chip stocks. good sign for the bulls is the consumer staples

that's a sign that they're nibbling on a bit more growth stocks so that really hasn't completely dissipated. we've got a couple stocks. like hershey's, for example, at 52-week highs. >> everybody loves chocolate, no matter the matter. thank you, bob our next guest, as signs point to things get worse before they get better, but that doesn't mean there's opportunities as jim cramer says, there's always a bull market somewhere we're going to talk with chris crisanti you call this a bear market really, what we've got in for the past couple months one reason is you say the fed is no friend of the market, and people who are seeing the early embryonic signs of a so-called pivot, you better not witch for that, because you might get it,

and if you get it, that's a bad sign explain. >> well, i think that's right, tyler. nice to be with you again. >> likewise. >> i think the only thing that make the fed to pivot is something back for risk assets so be careful what you wish for. it could be a pivot event in europe or more ukrainian problems we don't want that otherwise, i think on friday, you know, i think you'll see jerome powell via wolf in a sheep's clothing come out, saying it will be long and not compromising if i could add to that. >> please do. >> the yield curve is already inverted, to take a quote from "game of thrones" winter is

coming the energy costs in europe are off the charts >> one of the things that too few, i think, folks have been folk-- focusing on, the way th fed is reducing balance sheets that's another form of tightening, and it's coming big, fast and hard. >> not only that, but we've just gotten back to neutral on rates, and to stop this inflation you have to get much more restrictive. the fed doesn't want to say that and really scare people, but i think you'll get more stern talk on friday. >> so you've laid out the hypothesis for a bumpy market into year end. but you say there are a couple companies that might better aboutstand what-- withstand it.

>> if you see great bargains in high-quality companies, go for it no matter what the prognosis for the market is. what i like to look at now is what i call high-quality kryptonite these are things that people don't want to touch because they're in a bad sector or in a bat situation. home depot is a perfect example. irngs last week were quite strong same-store sales were up 9%, revenues hit a record, not the least of which because of inflation. the consumer is flush with camp. even though folks are not necessarily buys new homes, they're actually continues to fix up their current homes home depot is selling near a -- certainly that's one name. >> and the other is bristol-myers and you like that one. we have to leave it there,

without explanation, but we'll just lay that on the table for further research chris grisanti, thank you very much. >> you got it, tyler thank you. pippa stevens is literally right here with a look at the rest -- i usually connect with you through some art i fits, but n artifice. >> and also steel is a big move here it's been on a roler coaster ride, hitting a record for a short time last fall prices then started to stabilize, briefly spiking after russia invaded ukraine before once again trending lower. hot-rolled steel is still elevated compared to historic prices we've seen outperforming from a

number of companies several have double digits, but all four are well below that are recent highs. and this group is so sensitive to broader issues. stick then there's the inflation reduction act. josh pierce said they'll be the driver for demand over the next several years, but they're in the green for the year. >> and since you cover the whole waterfront of commodity, there's a big move in uranium. >> so much is going on broadly, but the ura, the uranium etf is on on track for the best day of the year this comes as japan signals it will restart the nuclear power

after the fukushima disaster, their nuclear power was shut down now everyone is looking for alternatives, so the government has said it will restart the i'dled power plants and look into next-gen reactors >> thank you, pippa. home prices are doing something they haven't done in more than a decade how buyers can take advantage as mortgage rates inch back plus a megacap tech stock. it's a retailer that's struggling after its spin-off. that's all ahead on "earnings exchange" with nvidia, salesforce, victoria's secret results on deck. we're back after this.

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welcome back to "the exc exchange." new data shared exclusively with cnbc shows some cracks are starting to form in the housing market, but it could be good news for buyers for a change. >> finally a change in the red-hot home prices.

we got these exclusive numbers from blackknight showing prices dropped. it may not sound like a lot, but the slargest single-month decline. prices almost always rise from june to july, because the housing market is seasonal prices are still up just over 14% year over year most of that gain is due to big increases in the first few months of this year and, of course, all last year. some markets have seen much bigger drops san jose leads the pack down 10% followed by seattle and more, some of the priciest areas

prices in florida are still holding. >> diana, thank you very much. let's bring in logan, the head analyst at housing wire good to have you with us. >> thank you >> do you see this trend, slightly dampening prices continues for the next several months, our do you see any in the marketplace that could flip that script. >> hopefully rates stay high enough to get total inventory back to the 2019 levels. traditionally speaking, when the economic data starts to get this worst, bond yields typically fall into a recession. we're having that tug of war now.

>> so getting the inventory and demand back into a better balance means exactly what sellers keep listing, but buyers don't go for the price, the rate and the monthly payment they have to pay? >> here's the problem with inventory america. a traditional seller is a traditional buyer. and what we've seen is new listings are declining so it's a weakness of the demand that will get us back up that's what i'm hoping will occur. which could the four-decade low before 2020, but we have a more functioning marketplace when inventory levels are back up >> the great recession, back in 2008, 2009, into 2010, really

housing prices started to turn a bit before that, as i recall you're not looking for what we saw then, which was a major decline in housing values, or are you? >> the problem was, back then, the housing market was cracking in terms of foreclosures, and cracking, and then the job losses happened after that we don't have that backdrop with forced sellers it's a much different marketplace. >> on the thought that diana mentioned, and that is that all real estate is local you would expect, i assume, that those housing markets that got the hottest will cool the most >> naturally that's a case we see that in boise, phoenix, reno those are a few pockets of the

country, and then everywhere else is seeing slow inventory gains. that's why the national inventory data is not back to 2019 levels, but those areas are -- i would consider that a good thing for this country, that those inventory levels are back up there. >> do you see some markets, wherever, where you think demand is going to increase and prices will, if not just be stable, go higher despite the overall trend? if mortgage rates fall back against, demand will pick up as long as rates state at 5%, 6% level, demand should remain soft right now. it's much different. we have two years back-to-back of mortgage rates above 5%, so if the economic data holds firm

enough, rates should stay this high if not traditionally rates fall. >> you gave us a lot of content there, logan we appreciate it have a good day. still ahead, peloton shares are popping after it struck a deal to sell its equipment and apparel on amazon. will it be enough? plus, president biden will announce his plan to cancel a portion of student debt. that will happen nin the next hour or two. 15s remarks are scheduled to 2: p.m., but he keeps to his schedule about as good as am track does we're back after this.

already, everybody welcome to "the exchange." the market is basically flat today. now it is up 27 points you see the s&p up about a fifth of a percent here are some of the -- nordstrom moving the wrong way, down, after a disappointing earnings report, along with several others going the other way worst day in the year for nordstrom after reducing its full-year forecast bed bath & beyond has picked up a lender shares are down after ryan cohen

filed to sell his entire stake shares of t mobile moving sharply higher after spacex will make a joint connectivity announcement tomorrow night featuring elon musk alongside t mobile's ceo kate has the cnbc news update. >> gop representative scott perry is suing the department of justice, demanding all cell phone data seized by federal agents be returned to him. the pennsylvaniacongressman is a top trump ally, and said the data on his phone is privileged information. bird flu is killing hundreds of wild black vulture at a georgia sanctuary. officials are say initial test

results indicate the black vulture died of the highly path oagainic h 1 f 1 strain. mac rutherford turned 17 on the five-month trip, and gained two guinness world records in the process. tyler, because over to you. thank you very much, kate. coming up. slow you sales are hurting victoria's secret and salesforce, while nvidia already warned of disappointing results. what will it take to turn inthgs around that's next on "the earnings exchange."

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welcome back to "the exchange." two tech giants and a retailer on deck for the results. we have all three of them, starting with nvidia the company preannouncing earnings a couple weeks ago, guiding down on revenue forecasts. shares down 9% since then, cut in half from the all-time high

steve novak. this was a market darling. >> we already got the warnings that things aren't going to look as good as we thought they would look, and they are blaming gaming, but nvidia touches a lot of industries, so these are all things people have questions, what demand look like for all these sector we got a preview, so that won't be the surprise. the surprise for me will be what do they say on the call. we heard microsoft saying, deteriorating pc demand. is nvidia seeing the same thing? and where? at the high end? or at the low end? this will be a really

interesting earnings report. >> very interesting, a real bellwether danielle shay is here with the trades she's the director of options at simpler trading. what do you think? >> hey, tyler. looking at nvidia, i'm thinking the preannouncement will save them here. when you're looking at other companies that have already preannounced earns, typically what we see is the bad news is already priced in. i like the way that nvidia is sitting on the price point i am a shareholders. i think that right now with the geopolitical tensioning between taiwan, china and obviously the economic slowdowns we're seeing, i think it's expected it's going to be a little bit weak. for that reason, expectation will be priced in, and that leaves room for nvidia to trade higher i'm holding my shares. i think it's a good spot to add, but if i'm wrong, it will bring

down the nasdaq tomorrow. >> steve, react more to danielle's fish tank. >> it looks really great i'm an admirer it's also a different kind of company than walmart what really matters, what i'm thinking of is what it's telling us about consumer demand that's going to inform how we think about some other companies reporting -- dell, hp, pc makers, gaming makers. all of these are struggling industries, and nvidia is unique in that it can touch all of those. crypto prices, with these fallen prices and exchanges going down. what does that tell you? >> danielle, a final thought about nvidia >> i just think it's expected to be weak. generally what we have seen with

earning this quarter, when the expectation is priced in, it leaves room for the price to rally. i don't think that's going to destroy the stock. let's go on to salesforce, one of the worst performers in the dow this year, but according to fact set, the company has never missed earnings or revenue estimate in the last 20 consecutive quarters steve kovach, what do you say? >> on salesforce, it's really about i.t. spend from small and medium businesses. we heard this from microsoft, they're seeing a softening in basically the client base for salesforce of i.t. spend, with recession fears, laying people off, so forth. one of the first things to go is spending on these i.t. things. what microsoft did say in the earnings, though, and we can listen to this, the higher end, the big companies are increasing their spend, so it will be interesting to see if they can make up for what they're missing

out on >> danielle, what do you think of the company that never misses >> you know, i like salesforce i think it's been unfairly punished the downtread is really weak, but they have done a good job rallying over the past few weeks. the way they have reported the past few quarters, they have been smashing it as far as the earnings results are concerned when you look at the way that it gapped up last quarter, it had an 11% move. this quarter, what we have seen throughout sentiment is we have seen companies that bead earning, we have seen them trade higher i think it's a hold at a minimum, and actually i think it's a bear market buy i think this company in the long term will recover. >> thank you for being with us we should point out that marc benioff will be on "mad money"

tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time mr. benioff and the king of "mad money." finally we go to victoria's secret reporting after the bell today, about one year from the spin-off from bath & body works. shanks are down 45%, but up 16% in the last month. courtney reagan has the story. hi, court. >> hi, tyler it's been a year since the spin-off, but there's still at lo going on in the details, when it comes to the total transformation frankly, sentiment is relatively low. i think investors have pretty low expectations in general, and then throw on the pressures from the broader make roe economic environment, and it just gets really, really difficult obviously kniffin tore is key, but so is margins.

they were saying clearance levels are up 78% year over year, 74% compared to 2019 so a lot more rides on the comments from the exec officers how they navigate in the middle of a brand transformation. >> danielle, some thoughts >> you know, i like the brand transformation the way they have reported over the course of the past three quarters has been very positive. yes, i agree there's softness in the retail space, with a lot of different reasons why this stock could trade lower post earnings, but i like the recovery we have seen i also like the high-short interest whenever i see a stock recover off the lows the way it has, it tells me that short sellers are

nervous. the stock has about a $5 expected move on earnings. if they happen to do well, which i think they will based on the past few reports, that could sent short seller scrambling and the stock trading higher if we could get above $45, $43 on this stock, it could change the overall down trend it's in >> courtney, reactions there, and tell us more about this brand transformation what are they trying to get away from what were they trying to move toward >> obviously victoria's secret is built on this very ultra-feminine, sexy image inial traditional way. they're working on trying to change that brand been image, saying, yes, you can feel beautiful, but beautiful is in the eye of the beholder, and the definition is changing so you've got to believe they can do it. they're starting some new lines

aimed at tweens. i think happy nation was a new announcement that's part of it, but the products they sell, those are the big changes. i think a lot of the operational kinks are being spun out of that big are corporation, but of course then you add the supply change complications that got thrown in there, too, which probably made those plans a little more complicated, but it's really the branding message, and the product they're selling, which is the about biggest shift for investors and frankly consumers. danielle, last word. >> if i owned it, which i don't, i personally would hold it i think overall the market right now, we're seeing weakness across the board, especially in retail, but i think we should hold out, because i think the last three quarters, they have shown they're doing well, and doing a good job of reversing

the trend. >> very interesting, and interesting, courtney, to use the phrase -- or not -- i think that's a very good point there maybe it just doesn't fit with the times the way it did a decade ago. >> right. >> ladies, courtney, danielle, we appreciate it thank you. >> thank you. still ahead, primetime for peloton shares, up -- what -- up. and our own lauren thomas broke that story she joins us live. she's been out front on peloton all year long. we'll be right back.

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an effort to make its products more ccessible the stock is up sharply on the news, up by 19% today alone. still down more than 60% so far this year. the farther back you look, the worse that number appears to be. cnbc's lauren thomas broke the story, as she has on so many on peloton over the years obviously they just want to get more product out the door. >> definitely. it's amazon, the e-commerce giant. i was able to talk to their chief commercial officer about this announcement, and kevin told me, you know, look thinks kind of the best way for us to test the waters as we think about our approach beyond direct-to-consumer, wanting to move into a distribution, some sort ofagreement with a distribution partner amazon is a great way to start i was told already about half a million people are searching on

amazon every month for peloton products the company believes that customer is there, but again, this is peloton's first move away from the d-to-c roots >> this would be the equipment -- >> i should june in, it doesn't include the tread. so the bike and the strength training products they have, which is called the guide. there will also be cycling shoes, yoga blocks, other fitness accessories you might be looking for. >> here's the key question to me i'm an owner of peloton. when it arrived, it's a big thing. it had to come up two flights of stairs to where i installed it i could not do that myself if i get delivery from amazon, will someone bring that case into the house, and if i want,

assemble >> great question. this is key to this tie-up for the first time peloton will offer a self-assembly option, so it sounds like, in your case, you may not be the prime customer that will pick. you can choose expert assembly offered through amazon amazon will be fulfilling the order rather than peloton. someone will come, they'll be trained ohow to set up the product and help you through that as a way to save costs here, peloton will be the first time testing the self-assembly options. it's essentially an 11-minute video. >> it didn't like that hard, but carrying it upstairs was very hard i don't think i could have done it even with my 16-year-old. the company has had some criticism for the amount of

capital the founders took out -- this was before the thing rolled over -- that they took out suv criticism justified, or were those sales of stock largely prescheduled >> great question. especially right around where we started to see things turn south, we did see a number of stock sales, i think in large pardon, founder john foley was selling stock. a lot of that was planned, but certainly when you had that news coupled with demand starts to fall off, you learn about these wrong choices that the company made, it's not a good look. >> look, i'm a fan i think it's a good product. it's been the one personal exercise device i have actually stuck with the entertainment factor is pretty good. you're motivated by them they have a lot of instructors. >> they do. >> so far i think they have resisted -- they have cut a lot of jobs, but they haven't cut

instructors. >> that's such a key point these instructors have carried a lot of the weight. >> some have become stars. >> you've got to keep the instructors happy. >> i even know them by name. that's the guy who was the basketball star. anyhow, how much do those instructors get paid >> there are estimates that's not something the company discloses. >> and a lot of them have side hustles. >> they do i think that creates the brand they create themselves. >> got to leave it there we could spend the whole day. >> it's such an interesting topic. still ahead, autodealers

sending their stocks soars so should you get in here, or is it the group about to run out of road that's next.

welcome back, everybody. car dealer stocks are sharply higher today this as autodealers continue to see record profits and demand. phil lebeau has the latest numbers. hi, phil. >> hey, tyler, this is new data from taragen advisers, which tracks the sector, basically looking at the transactions and how profitable dealerships have become just a few years ago the average annual provenability per dealership was about a million, 1.5, 1.6 million it has shot up this year, on average, the average dealership is scheduled to make $4.3 million why have they become so prof profitable part of it is because of the demand with more people driving, with the service side of the business, but also the average dealership is much more in demand and selling at a higher

pace it says up 16% in the first half of the year, most of that private dealers buying more dealerships, not the publicly traded once. if you look at the publicly traded dealerships, were buying fewer of the dealerships for sale, and valuations have changed in the last year look at group 1, earl hesterberg announced he will be stepping down come december 31st tyler, you are tellinged internet-only car dealers of the world if you take a look at those, yes, they're having a decent pop today, up nicely in the last month it's not been a good year for everybody.

the bottom line is this, tyler, plenty of deplanned for new and especially used automobile if you're an ought on dealer, you are getting high profitability, not just because of the transactions on the side, but the service side as well as the financials and insurance side >> i was speaking to a friend in the business, and he says spot on, you may not be doing the volumes or inventory, but boy, he's making more profit for every car he sells. >> yeah. >> never been more profitable. >> tyler, think back to a few years ago, maybe 2015, 2016? the sky was falling on these guys they weren't going to be able to compete on the internet-only sales, they weren't going to

compete in the electric victim world. they're more profitable than ever if they can look out over the next ten years and say auto dealers are not going away, if you can continue to do what you're doing right now through the rest of this decade into early 20, 30s that's the reason why there's so much demand out there for those dealerships that are for sale >> as always, phil lebeau. >> we have been seeing car dealer stocks accelerate in the past month, but do these stocks have more room to run? our next guest says yes and he joins us now to make his case. michael ward is an auto analyst at the benchmark company michael, welcome good to have you with us let me ask you a question before we get to the real meat of this segment. does the fact that the dealers are making more profit mean that the manufacturers make more profit, too? >> to the extent that they're not discounting as much. >> you know, if you look at just

incentive spending there's been a lot written about atps ahead of $10,000 since 2019 about a third of that is from lower incentives spent the incentives come out of the vehicle manufacturer's profit and they don't cut the pricing on the suppliers as much and it's great for the overall industry >> let's talk about the dealership stocks and as phil pointed out there's a schism between the publicly traded more traditional dealers and the online dealers explain -- explain why that is true and which you favor >> okay. >> one thing on earl hestenberg. one thing about a ceo is to make sure you have a good suck session. one of the things is to have a good management team and earl put that in place and he ought to be commended for that the used car dealers, it's a great time to be an auto dealer,

and i think part of that will continue longer term because the dealer model has changed and if you think back to the '70s when general motors and ford were getting crushed throughout the '80s and '90s. the model has continued to change over those 30, 40 years and now you're in more of a relationship model and the vehicle manufacturers are carrying less inventory, and as a result, it will become more of a prestige model which will mean more profitability. >> i'm sitting there as i drive to work, and i pass a chevrolet dealer that happens to be on my right side i've done business with them in the past and their lot seems maybe a third full why would you ever go back to a model where those dealer lots are full of excess inventory and so then you're forced to discount, you're forced to throw

incentives to move the metal a lot of that was initiated by gm and ford. remember, gm and ford were losing so much market share and they had very high structural cost, they were down 50% over the last decade. they want a lower model and a more efficient model and mike jackson from autonation argued for decades about higher inventory. they had to keep that cost in line now what you've seen it started with covid we recovered faster than expected and the inventory was absorbed very quickly and now you're at one-third of inventory and the industry has become more profitable you ask me about your top picks. >> give me your favorite >> penske automotive group or group one. both companies have exposure in the uk market and the dynamic center leading to positive results in the u.s. or even more

positive in the uk market. that should be a positive. >> michael, we covered a lot of territory there in a short time. michael ward, thanks. >> thank you president biden will announce his plan to cancel student loan debt for certain borrowers. uc who qualifies for how mh and will it impact inflation we have the details on that next so you get unlimited data for just $30/mo, taxes and fees included. plus we have a new plan with 5g ultra wideband. switch today at visible dot com. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

welcome back, everybody. the president getting ready to talk about his student loan forgiveness plan in just a few minutes from now for what we can expect to hear i am joined by sharon epperson this has been a long awaited, almost t almost torturous and now we'll hear what he has in mind. >> in just a few minutes president biden will unveil this long-awaited plan for student loan debt relief and here's what we know so far the biden administration will

forgive up to $20,000 for pell grant recipients and up to $10,000 for other borrowers and for individuals earning less than $100,000 per year and $250,000 for couples 43 million americans will get some form of relief and 20 million of those borrowers will have their debt cancelled and this comes at a time when the economy is suffering from record-high inflation and the pause on student loan repayments which has been in effect since the start of the pandemic will be extended another time until december 31st of this year payments can be capped at 5% of your monthly income. this plan is already controversial with gop leader kevin mccarthy saying it will be paid for by, quote, hardworking americans who paid off debt or never took out loans two-thirds of respondents favored some form of student loan forgiveness while 30% no

one should have their loans canceled there's a lot more on this on cnbc personal finance and strategists for people to help them figure out what to do >> minority leader mccarthy pe making the point that it will come from somewhere from those who paid off their loans do we know what the a proximate cost is. we don't know exactly how this is going to be paid for. what are some of the details for here on how it will be paid for and how people will be able to get this forgiveness >> is this something that the president can do on his own or does congress need to get involved because it involves some kind of budgetary impact >> of course, there are a lot of members of congress that are weighing in on this and they will want to have some say on it, but ultimately we'll hear what president biden has to say in just a few moments. >> sharon, thanks so much. >> absolutely.

that does it for "the exchange." i'm going to join seema mody on "power lunch" which starts right now. ♪ ♪ tyler, thank you i'm seema mody here is what's ahead on "power lunch "qwest stocks high are today as the markets brace for a lot of fed speak from jackson hole. is the fed near the end of the hiking cycle or full speed ahead? we'll get some stock picks and look at how this is all affecting currencies and emerging markets plus, the twitter versus elon musk court battle begins right after a former employee blows the whistle on the company we'll talk to an analyst who is downgrading the twitter stock today. tyler? >> seema, thank you to you and welcome, everybody let's check the markets as we're seeing some green on the screen with the nasdaq leading the way. some of the high beta volatile names are on the move today. netflix, meta, t