tv Squawk on the Street CNBC August 25, 2022 9:00am-11:00am EDT
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that's why you have clients, i think. you do that for us we have to go. good to have you on. >> thanks, jeff. >> see ya. andrew >> what a show, guys what a show. make sure you join us tomorrow we will see what jay powell has to say and a lot more as the week winds down. "squawk box" -- i should say "squawk on the street" begins next >> chairman powell chairman powell. >> good thursday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber going to be a busy one futures lost steam on this revised q2 gdp price index, now 8.9% fedspeak has begun at jackson hole nvidia opens lower on earnings we begin with the fed. esther george and raphael bostick signaling. >> peloton shares reported a big
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loss, declining revenue as it cycles through its turnaround plan >> ha-ha funny. >> on the move quarterly results as carl said, salesforce, nvidia, snowflake, a number of retailers as well. >> let's begin with the tech earnings salesforce down in the premarket after trimming their full-year guidance, overshadowing the quarterly beat and the company's first-ever share buyback program. marc benioff talked to jim abou it >> this is a more measured economic environment everyone is trying to assess what's going on, how they position themselves or this new economy. it's a new day for many companies. when you look out at all these businesses, yes, they're all doing digital transformation it's still everyone's number-one priority every digital transformation is beginning and ending with the customer >> the phrase measured buying environment came up from bret sailor and from marc.
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>> yes i think that marc missed it. i think in the previous call he had a vision that this could occur. he understood and was talking to enough ceos to recognize that people are not guy v buying. that's the beginning of the process. used to be the end of the process. it would have been very, very helpful had he just lowered the boom the previous quarter and i think you start seeing the stock going up that said, he is buying a huge amount of stock. however, as is often the case, david, with tech stocks, they issue a huge amount of stock, so a buyback is not like if you're buying back stock. >> no. $10 billion is the buyback he had that on the call leading into talking about, you know, people ask us about m&a. well, we are looking at this -- >> you found that funny. >> i did i knew where it was going. >> the m&a humor they do >> yeah. and it's salesforce.
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but $10 billion. you know, listen, his characterization was interesting. you're right, it would have been interesting to have gotten in a bit sooner even when he's said he's met with hundreds of ceos and economists and business leaders, other experts and says what we've said so many times, nobody is quite sure exactly where things are going, hence they come back to the measured word that they used a number of times in terms of their customers and how they're approaching things >> the more he used it the more you saw the stock trade down in the evening. i don't think that the stock -- my charitable trust has had a long-term position, not large, but we are interested in picking some up because he has done the major reset that you were looking for, and if you believe in resets he's put in the big one to reset the only issue i have, and david, i'm curious what you think, i checked in with bret.
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how much time has bret been able to put in? marc said not a problem, but you know that this twitter lawsuit, he's the chairman of twitter, is not something that can be dismissed in terms of your time. >> no. i can't answer that specifically, but i can tell you based on having followed these kinds of battles previously, the chairman of the board is going to be spending a good amount of time on this there is not -- there is rarely going to be a day that he's not engaged in some way with twitter shareholders and having to have calls, with the lawyers. he's the point man >> he's the point man. you say he's indefatigable he texted me back about 2:00 his time i will tell you as among nvidia and salesforce, i'd buy snowflake. >> the one name that will open higher of those 20%. we'll talk snow in a moment. on salesforce, 4x is a big piece of it. they raised guidance on headwinds from $600 million to
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$800 million bent i d benioff talked with jim about that as well. >> we had a great quarter but the dollar had better quarter. i was in japan and everything was a third off. now we see the euro i think which is now for the first time in quite a long time underneath the dollar >> something we've argued in the past, the market looks past. >> i question a meme reverse marc wasn't buying that at all this is a long-term issue, the strong dollar. the humble nature, david, of marc benioff last night, whether humbled by currency, by the longer-term cycle of selling things was new the bravado of buying back stock is real, but the amount of stock
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they've issued over time, it's tremendous i tried to get him to say that slack had been this new door opener it was almost as if he refused to go with any of my positives i felt like his mother >> trying to get him there >> yeah. >> humble is not a word i would associate with him >> that's why i brought it up. when i see him tonight along with david bling and seinfeld for a ceo dinner -- >> is that happening tonight >> yes >> nice. >> he does these soirees where you learn things >> last time i complained. i got invited. >> i hope i get to sew up lips again. inside will be the king of diamonds actually, what sewed it up last time, a senatorial candidate from pennsylvania. >> dr. oz. >> fetterman yes. dr. oz
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>> that's one reason we're watching meantime, stocks are on track to open higher a little bit after snapping this losing streak we've been in. the fed's annual jackson holcim pose yum gets under way today. here's what esther george told our steve liesman about inflation earlier this morning >> when i look at the inflation dynamics right now, we have a fundamental imbalance still between supply and demand, and it is very broad based when we look at the drivers of inflation right now. so, what we saw in july, we saw some air fares coming off there, we saw hotel accommodations, car rentals, those kinds of things, but those were pretty specific categories i think we'll have to see something more broad based to begin to know that inflation is coming off its highs >> so we'll get harker at 10:00 and bullard at 2:00, but this revised gdp, the price index at 8.9, prior 8.7, has raised eyebrows >> it's not happening.
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one of the things mark and i talked about after the interview was how you still can't -- there's so many places -- now the hours are much shorter you'll have a drugstore chain where the hours are much shorter. can't find workers the overwhelming theme is you can't find workers, which of course then means you have to pay whoever you have more money for them to stay this is what i call the dutch bros problem that's where you get the annihilator, david >> i've never been to one, but you continue to talk about it so i feel like i know >> it's the next starbucks >> okay. >> i apologize to howard schulz. it has the potential to be the next starbucks if it executes. they were the first person to talk about the job problem, that you have great barista and immediately they go get a higher price. if you go -- our walgreens here, my litmus, the ones i waited five minutes to get a gillette
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razor and decided to leave and get it at amazon and got it faster, these places are closing out. the hours of stores are now so inconvenient that amazon is going to have a great quarter. i think jassy understands this better than anyone by the way, just a segue to something we are going to talk about, it is very interesting to hear how barry is focused on amazon as a way to be able to cut costs. >> back to that, yep >> i admitted it was going to be nonlinear. >> it was nonlinear. a lot of different things from the fed to unemployment to the ability to keep employees to lower hours therefore benefit amazon >> what do you want me to do >> but he threads in like four tickers. >> he does >> let me just talk a little longer about plug power. >> no. let's not. >> 9:09 to 9:15 on plug power and the incredible results they're having with forklifts. >> forklifts
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>> forklifts >> hydrogen powered? >> schumer liking them we spend enough on plug power to last a lifetime. >> we didn't even hit nvidia though >> i have so much of nvidia it's scary. >> want to share on that >> absolutely. >> nvidia shares will be down not such as salesforce because they did guide down a few weeks ago, but it was a revenue number below the guidance that at least analysts -- >> you're very funny >> thank you >> in october of -- they did a preannouncement october 2018 saying we are not going to make the numbers and they did the report and quantified how bad it was. it was worse than what they said then you thought that was a clearing event and that's when you caught a bottom. that bottom in november, which was at 32, lasted. it was tested again in may of 2019 and then it was off to the races. i think you have a very similar situation developing here. the difficulty is we don't know where the inventory backup is.
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and there's lot of inventory in the system the inventory was for gaming or high performance computing data centers? we didn't know because you know who is virtually stopping spending on the most important part of the brain trust in the world right now, high-performance computing, a country we always thought would never stop competing with us >> china >> yes a slowdown the likes of which used to remind me of america in the last halcion days. i don't know what's going on in china. when they blow up buildings, they don't know how to blow them up like dominos coming at you >> could it be related to covid lockdowns? >> and they're easing up a bit on those today, a little more incremental stimulus this morning. >> all i can tell you is the fact that they cut back on the most important part of technology tells me that they're going to faum bll behind and net rethink priorities >> don't we want them to full behind national security perspective? >> you want me to be a
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xenophone? >> don't they have more computers than we have >> you sound like stalin i've researched that multiple times. >> you still quote him a lot >> quoting stalin is always good the nvidia quarter, it was convoluted because jensen traced the future from new traffic gaps, slowing in gaming, the high performance computing in america looks strong i was shocked about chinese data center and they didn't order a lot. no one thought china would ever stop ordering anything that puts them in the lead >> he said for the next couple quarters they'll give the market in gaming a chance to correct. here's what he said. >> yes >> navigating our supply chain transitions in a challenging
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macro environment, gaming, our partners in ecosystem are responding to us in slowdown in consumer demand and correcting channel inventory. still, the fundamentals of gaming are strong. we'll get through this in the next several months. >> they've done that before. >> i tried to do a parsing of what he said in 2018 say this is as close as you can get and therefore you would get a bottom if you use that same analogy, probably in a month, you can buy it, actually right now, this morning. but you're not going to get a resurgence until the probably second quarter of 2023 >> i did note interestingly just in a different subject but related, the growth of ai in both reading the conference calls of both salesforce and
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nv nvidia something we need to keep an eye on >> not as good >> no. it's growing so quickly. even the language, talking about 30% increases in their ability for language in nvidia >> language now understands adverbs, adjectives. >> accents >> traditional verbs >> slang >> extraordinary. >> they're getting close to replacing us >> when you talk to the bmw it's very good. i think when you talk to jensen's cars, that will teach you things right now it's just compliant. >> a lot of this stuff is run on nvidia chips, right? >> i asked alexa to play ella fitzgerald and cole porter and she gave me ella fitzgerald, rogers and hart. >> ouch. is that a good thing or bad? >> i thought it was disappointing and i would have called jassy if i had his home number >> i said at the beginning,
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alexa. >> right >> i know who ella fitzgerald is >> you do? >> yeah. >> she plays degrom in the rotation >> she played the apollo >> when we come back, what a difference a day makes as jim and david said, peloton's wednesday rally is getting erased on news of a big loss and a fascinating letter from barry mccarthy we'll get to snow, williams-sonoma and, autodesk and tesla in a moment. only on y. so you get unlimited data for just $30/mo, taxes and fees included. plus we have a new plan with 5g ultra wideband. switch today at visible dot com.
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peloton shares lower in the premarket. barry mccarthy is trying to ramp up the turnaround strategy he talks about deepening losses, declining revenue, negative gross margins. he talks about his own experiences on a cargo ship in terms of trying to turn it around >> he did say we've sounded the alarm for general quarters everyone at their station. now i thought this was important apropos of the cargo ship. when will we see a response? well, our goal is fiscal year '23. we just had '22 over i say you buy mccarthy i'll give you a couple other reasons why. people feel it was a bad job with the amazon. he's talking about going international. most importantly, liz cottington, a fantastic person
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in finance, is going to be the cfo. why is that necessary? because the sloppy nature of the previous reporting is over it's over. and the expense that they had in the last mile is over. the cuts, the needed cuts that they had, as painful as they were, in so many parts of the operation -- what? >> what do you pay for this thing? >> $1,100. >> no, in terms of a multiple to eventual actual earnings or ebitda we're on a journey to reach sustained positive cash flow but we're averaging negative free cash flow of $750 million a quarter. a quarter. >> those are suboptimal. the fundamentals are suboptimal. >> you're on the journey when you get to that journey by the second half of fiscal '23 and reach break-even cash flow, in all seriousness -- >> in actuality, you're making a bet this man can pull off a situation that is frankly almost impossible for everybody else.
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>> well, the c.o.o. did say that searches for peloton product on amazon even before they had a presence were averaging half a million a month. they're going to try to leverage that as they continue to deconstruct the vertical model >> yeah. look, if it were just the end of the pandemic, the company would be in trouble. but john foley created i think one of the worst most let's say poorly run on a day-to-day tactical company i have come across david, i think that foley must have thought the pandemic was the forever -- >> never end >> shop ify and the companies that have issued mea culpas on that >> he's changed everything based on these outlandish predictions
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in terms of sales. >> right i'll see him tonight so i'll be more measured in my terms like benioff. he did a terrible job. >> average monthly workouts per sub, down 21 quarter on quarter. >> i searched for a metric that was positive and the only one i could find was the call did end. >> jim have fun with foley tonight. >> i feel like you started positive on this conversation and then you're ending n ing nee >> i like barry and the cfo. maybe the numbers will be clear and honest, not bikes per share. >> okay. >> treadmill per share. >> the treadmills. >> yeah. >> like. like >> a lousy business. >> a friend on wall street, get a dog, remember that one >> icanicahn. >> no. herb allen. >> where did he get his suits?
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williams-sonoma another name >> overlooked in the i would say dissection of ted was an extraordinary quarter by laura albert from williams-sonoma. we all know that most of the outfits we deal with in retail had problems with demand and not getting supply she admitted she had problems getting some product but 41% comp over a two-year basis, no promotions whatsoever, excellent demand, and her digital first but not digital only strategy really resonates with me williams-sonoma, better month to month, this company you often see in the mall. gross margins near historic high, very, very aggressive buyback. why? because she was fed up the stock was too low. a lot of stock when it was lower. i think she is the only -- she is the only housewares, furniture company right now -- no, outfit that dresses up your
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home office that has really got it going this stock is way too cheap. >> the stock is taking off >> doesn't matter. they interviewed her last time i was in california. i'm going to california very soon i hope to sit down with her, but i have her on tonight. >> we look forward to hearing from her >> thank you very much >> you're welcome. >> she was is original go get a grill when i polled her about -- i don't know how to stay friendly with people during pandemics. go get a grill >> comps up double the estimate. what's the better print, this one or dick's in terms of retail >> dick's was so extraordinary too. you cut me to the quick on that one. golfing, i don't think the golfing numbers -- by the way, ca calaway -- >> name change as well >> that wasn't as good as west elm. like an s.a.t. class golfing is to dick's --
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[ applause ] >> we'll kwawatch it closely the opening bell at the big board, the fund for public housing celebrating its seventh year of investing programs, and akili, a digital medicine company david, a couple of things in the last 24 hours. >> there were. they had atm, bitcoin. >> yeah. >> which is somewhat prize surprising i haven't used a bit coin atm myself i don't know if you have >> no, i have not. >> apparently they've had undiminished demand. in fact, it continues to increase they have quite a few of them and they will be taking that company public through spac. >> and you'll have it and lose a lot of money and have a super good time. >> you're still positive on spacs, i guess
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>> we do some very good cnbc work with spacs. the greatest i've ever seen. >> one of the biggest was grab remember when that went public we talk williams-sonoma, $11 billion market cap this is still a $13 billion-plus market value is grab total gdp up 33% in the second quarter, 34% year over year on a constant currency basis. when you look at grab -- well, there's -- >> that's a telling index. >> it's below the average post-spac performance, because if that's at 43, grab's at $3.50. >> that's some of the best of the b-to-b all the one dollar ones. the other day i got a nasty email from someone saying you lump all the spacs together, it's not right i sent back an email and said, no, it is. >> well, no, i've gotten pushback as well
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>> you have? >> of course because i have plenty of friends who worked hard to identify their targets and feel like you can't just say that it's all -- you can't paint it with the same brush. they point out ipo performance in the same period we're talking about is similarly poor. >> miserable i just think that -- okay, so when you go to a casino -- here. let's use blackjack, right when you've got a 6 showing and the dealer has a king, that's a spac >> yeah. yeah >> that's a spac sometimes, david, you get a bad hand >> sometimes you do. >> spac gives you a lot of bad hands. >> right now it's the liquidations >> you could draw a 5. >> liquidations of the spacs, not ones able to find a deal >> but don't you think that level of defeat puts the whole concept to shame >> listen, there are going to be some winners they're still doing deals.
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>> draftkings. >> bitcoin coming public. >> this is not a fun game. we're not just -- we're not playing hand and foot versus canasta. >> meanwhile, we have no new ipos what are we waiting for? >> hey, you know what bob dylan said, when you have nothing, you have nothing we got nothing i wish the spac people would realize they got nothing someone was talking about figs today. that's been a disaster you want some figs do you know how much -- they pay a lot of their pilots in stock >> yeah. one last one before we move on because we have so many other earnings to cover. kazoo group. this was daniel -- >> oh, yeah. >> czoo.
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czoo then we'll move on >> zz top. that's a group >> it's not a group. >> no? >> it's 63 cents >> jim, goldman has one note out today just short term, volume and liquidity will assuredly fade over the next ten days as those messy september seasonals come into view buybacks, we talked about the window closing rebalancing will likely draw out selling of equities. do you think it gets dicey in the next couple weeks? >> in '87, this particular period, it was one of the nastier periods i've seen. i'm giving it a year to satisfy the bears, throw hem them a couple fish up there in the mckenzie river it can be a nasty thing. during that period, almost everything went down
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burke had its anti-cholesterol drug and there can be very few players. it's historically not great. however, larry williams, my favorite market historian, has said that september has almost always marked the bottom i don't want to be too bearish if you're in nvidia, it isn't like you woke up today and said, wow, this is not good. and people woke up when it was at $305 were the ones who should have said it's not good. >> well, one -- >> nvidia is not going down. >> no. >> by the way, cathie wood loves it, so be careful. she likes to buy 2 million shares going to get to 182. >> she sold 239,000 shares night before last. >> well, she's been material on nvidia >> we haven't done snow. >> we haven't talked snowflake, which is up 19%.
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>> a big frank saluteman fan for a long time. the company a different scenario with the other big tech names we've talked about already >> let's look at the use case. yum for pizza hut. they didn't know how big their business was going to be around super bowl, so you had to give it to someone to figure it out gave it to sluman. let's talk about what his company does if you want to be -- a three-year contract, imagine a three-year lease for a car but say you don't use the car all the time but you want a great experience when you use it, you want to learn. that's uber. so he's uber and the other companies are buying a car i think that the benefits of being uber, being one and done, but you come back because you like the uber experience, are driven, and snowflake -- >> that's why net revenue
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retention up 171%. >> fantastic >> yesterday >> people keep coming back and they come back and they come back and this one's not done. it was much, much higher it can do that again i think they have a brilliant model for a slowdown trying to say, hey, listen, if you're measured, let's use snowflake. you can't find engineers they have great ngineers this stock was much higher as people are very fascinated a lot of the wall street bets types really loved it at $300, said they're very good, not good value but good spotting for companies. >> it was a name we talked about a lot during the enormous run-up in my technology names stho now it's not. >> incredible multiple for revenues and ebitda. it sported for quite some time not at those highs but -- >> one of those profits that you don't like tend to be -- >> adjusted. a lot of adjustments >> i have not seen frank smile in four years. and he smiled last night he was not gruff
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joked with me. i wasn't scared for a minute nor did i need xanax after >> operating margins, a positive surprise frank talked to jim about the business model overall take a listen. >> i think the model actually works better in a down market where people are having headwinds and trepidations and not knowing which way the world is going to go you like the elasticity, being able to throttle back, throttle up, you know, when you have the confidence in a traditional subscription model, you don't have that luxury >> the old frank >> the name we haven't touched on, swonk, about a one-month low. they do trim guidance on recurring revenue. they said 3.6. they were 3.9. >> a very interesting situation. they report the same night as snowflake. which most company is vulnerable
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to snake, it's splunk. run by one of the best ceos in silicon valley it will be a bit of an end as much as i like slootman, you can never bet against him. he created servicenow, took it to be a big company. >> right. >> and frank slootman, known as the flying dutchman, is so bankable, and the whole time his number is going down, he was saying who should who said it should be 300? did you say that i never said anything about 300. i never said anything about 300. >> he didn't he didn't. it is still up 57%-plus since the ipo back in september of 2005 >> did you see that smile? >> i'm on that watch, continue to be on that watch for t-mobile's market cap passing that of verizon. i think it's fascinating i think it's interesting to me to see the long-term impact of
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companies. my god, t-mobile, talking about john ledger and the young carrier and all the things they were doing, they were such a distant third place, it is interesting to see over time these enormous moves they're close. they're really close yesterday i think t-mobile may have surpassed them briefly. i mentioned t-mobile, though, now as well because tonight you're going to get this announcement from t-mobile and spacex mike sievert and elon musk >> elon tweeted about it yesterday. >> chief engineer, by the way, will chat about their joint mission and how they're working together to make it a reality at starbase, of course near brownsville, texas, where they launched one of the rockets from, the spacex rockets one would expect this would have to do something with starlink, but we'll see. jim, it's a little late for you to get accreditation if you want to head down there
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but it will take base at the star base facility at 8:00 eastern time yesterday it had the effect, when we were told about the announcement, of sending the shares up. dish shares are hanging in there pretty well. some who believe maybe this is starlink and t-mobile. mike has not answered my text. >> who ran starlink in "the running man" >> that's -- >> mick fleetwood. >> nice one. >> thanks for that >> so stevie nicks yesterday, mick fleetwood working your way through the whole band >> the version of "the running man" where schwarzenegger, the equipment dies, such a downer. so the movie of course, he lives. >> speaking of spacex, ron baron talked about his investment in spacex being one of the largest of the last couple months. then again the amount of money he expects to make still from tesla post split take a listen. >> i love tesla.
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we've been investing in tesla for eight years now since 2014, made about 20 times your money, made about $60 billion, $70 billion on a $380 million investment i think we'll make three to five times our money again in the next ten years i am so excited. the next ten years i think tesla will be the largest company in the world and ten yeerps after that i think ten years after that it will be challenged by spacex >> when he used to say things like that five years ago, i kind of laughed at him. now you can't. tesla, by the way, i think the split happened, right? so don't be fooled but, you know, it's almost a trillion-dollar market cap even now. >> you do? >> i've known ron baron since 1987 there isn't anything about him given to hyperbole >> so the spacex challenging tesla -- >> the first part. the spacex is harder for me. but tesla is -- >> up to $125 billion-plus on
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its last raise it keeps going higher unlike other private companies, many of which if they're forced to -- >> the bears are try so hard to keep their price targets down, but they can't help it there was a piece this morning about the factory in berlin, hour it's the most amazing factory in the world you keep reading positives, positives, and at the same time california is voting right now to be able to put in 2035 every vehicle has to be ev you know what? it will be a state of teslas unless jim farley can get that f-150 out. he thinks he can do 600,000 run rate at the end of next year this guy is going to own california given this new initiative >> he well may >> that's the largest market in the world. >> and many follow its lead given you have 38 million, 40 million people in the state. >> remember trump tried to stop that >> i do. >> didn't believe in the federalist system when it came
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to pollution >> tried to roll back their initiatives in terms of increasing miles per gallon. >> how many representatives do they have? >> one, but two senators and so does california 400,000 people, 40 million people. >> that's right. >> isn't that something? do you think jefferson thought about that >> yes >> that's why a lot of people say we're not a democracy, we're a republic >> "american nation" is a good book >> i haven't read it >> good chat good talk. got a split market here. ten-year still around 3.12 bob pisani >> what's interesting today is the market is certainly not acting like jay powell is suddenly going to initiate some new form of uber haw kisshness in his speech tomorrow tech stocks, the ones most affected, are holding up fairly well despite the fact that salesforce is down about 7%. so take a look here. cathie wood's ark is holding up, china funds holding up, semis are up, energy is up, and
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consumer staples and generally defensive names have been underperforming the market this month. this is not behavior people are terrified of a new round of fed haw kisshness the hang seng rallied about 4% china announced a new stimulus program. they implied they weren't but caved in real es it too is part of the wealth in china, so this is aimed at infrastructure, and that moved up in the middle of the day. hong kong opened late because there was a typhoon there, not until 1:00 p.m. eastern time these chinese tech stocks, there are rumors that regulators in china are talking to the big four accounting firms about maybe making a deal with u.s. regulators a big brouhaha, u.s. regulators and auditors haven't been able to look at chinese books for many, many years there's some discussion or rumors they may be trying to resolve that you see these nice moves up in the stocks that are listed here, chinese stocks, j.d..com, baidu,
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alibaba. the s&p is flat this month, and again, these consumer and health care names are not performing well unitedhealth has been a terrible performer. p&g, kimberly-clark, clorox, the defensive names have been underperforming and cyclical names, industrials, the banks. tech is holding up tech is flat this month believe it or not despite some bad news, overall tech is flat the market is not acting like there's some kind of you are in level of uber hawkishness coming from the federal reserve what is the earnings risk? work under the mild recession theory how much will earnings come down we see the economy decelerating. everyone acknowledges that there's a lot of debate about peaking inflation or not earnings are lower but still positive i want to show you how fast they've been coming down in the last couple weeks. yes, they're still positive, but if you look compared to even three, four weeks ago, these numbers are well below what they
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were july 1st from the third-quarter earnings for the s&p, up 11%, half that today, 5.5%. they'll come down more after salesforce that doesn't include salesforce. for the fourth quarter, numbers again stay positive, not negative, but also almost half what it was. july 1st, 10.6%, today 6.4%. i think that number comes down into the 5s in the next couple days so, the bottom line here is, carl, if you look at what's going on, is not negative and everyone says you can't have a recession unless earnings go negative it's never happened. but we are certainly slowly, slowly moving into the low single digits from the high single digits. back in july, 10%, 11%, now 4%, 5% carl, back to you. >> bob, thanks for that. bob pisani this morning, you can always get in on the cnbc investing club with cramer. sign up and find out more at cnbc.com/jointheclub or use the qr code on your screen
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fatake a look at some s&p. autodesk, billings up 17, they do reiterate the guide cruise lines have been leading the pack overall up 12 inpots back in a moment 's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done.
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grail. >> it >> this is a great counter to them that's real -- we didn't get to the effect of telehealth, teladoc. >> google had two different health companies amazon tried two different models it's a much harder nut to crack. catherine identified -- >> which amazon, we're told by the journal, is one of a number of bidders for cygnify and remember, there is questions about whether they'll get a second request from the federal trade commission from that. >> she backed away on the zuckerberg thing. >> on the small acquisition.
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>> she was going to block it >> let my say hi to every single ceo. >> we're happy to have them on. >> i think it's important when we have ceos, to do shoutouts. >> any ceos on "mad money" tonight? >> laura al better, and then ane. l bhusri are they going to use the measured word that benioff used. notice nvidia it's following the pattern perfectly. salesforce is still down 7%. >> it was humbled.
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apple, don't forget we have that upcoming, september 7th. i'm still praying that apple plus gets the nfl ticket, but it's cutting it really close. >> jim, have a good hour. when we come back, patrick harker, live from jackson hole salesforce is pulling the dow down, but the dow has nonetheless gone green back in a moment
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good thursday morning. welcome to another hour on "squawk on the street. tech earnings, revised gdp, jackson hole, today's session has it all, as the dow is managing to gathering a little strength in the session. >> here's a few movers were keeping an eye on this morning, of course, as we get about 30% into -- shares of snowflake, the company reporting better than expected quarterly revenue, also raises full-year guidance. the shares are up over 18%.
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>> jim was talking about this. >> as it continues with the weakening demand. >> 2018, saying it's setting up for a similar pattern, which had it going higher after a number of lowered guidance moments. salesforce shares are sliding, stock down more than 7%. marc benioff joined jim last night. >> everyone is trying to asset what is going on, how do they epps themselves for a new economy. it's a new day for many economies. when you look out at all the businesses they're all doing digit at transformation every digital transformation is
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still beginning and ending with the customer >> carl, we mentioned, in terms of the customers' approach to news business. in salesforce he talks about it, but cramer lines given you a rip on benioff finding an m&a target, it happens to be himself. >> a new thorization, and it's funny, i always think of the inflation reduction act, but it doesn't always one of the in what would be $100 million over time the actual reduction of shares, as so something else to keep in mind yeah, salesforce is getting hit. again, he said, like we do, if talked to 100 business leaders,
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economists, and leaders in other industries as well, and said nobody quite has the same story. >> so sort of an echo of what service now told us a weekal steve is alongside with patrick harker. >> good morning. i'm pleased to bring you patrick harker, president of the philadelphia fed president harker, thanks no joining us how high are you going with rates? >> what's youths best guess? >> i don't know. the data needs to let it play out.
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we don't need to rush up and guy wait down. we actually have to believe it and let this play out a bit. >> when you say not going down, you're pushing back a bit. of course, in the last week or so, things have gotten tighter, but if you look at the fed rate outlooks, it goes to 375, but then it comes down. >> we've got to get inflation under control. >> what would be your metric also the distribution, one of the things i focus on is how many goods and services are above 5%, 4%
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when you see used cars and other things, you start to feel better. >> so sometimes i have to do my job, i think it's a stupid question the market is obsessed by this, 50 or 75, what is the difference >> i'm going to see the next inflation reading. that said,i want to put it in historical context since 1983, the fed has raised rates 86 times 75 of those were under 50 basis points a 50 basis point move is still a sfanchal move. whether it's 50 or 75, you can't say, but let ate not thing that 75 is not stanch am. 50 is a substantial move >> is this a recession or not a recession? does it matter for policy? >> i think in terms of policy,
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we need to get inflation under control, no matter what. >> i don't know if it matters a lot. it issen a odd recession, if it were a recession, right? >> reporter: sure. >> and given the strength of the job market i don't think we can call it -- that's not my job to call it. >> if this were a recession, typically we would be down 700,000 jobs by now, and we're up 3.2 million that's a 4 million swing. >> it doesn't feel like one in that sense. >> that brings me to an area of expertise that i've come to you over the years where are the workers? are more coming back are we in a permanent mode here of restrained labor supply >> back before the pandemic we had tight markets then i think it's worth remembering we had structural problems even before the pandemic. the pandemic just accelerated
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retirements, other choices people are making. plus, think about where we are with foreign-born workers, about 2.4 million workers shy of where we would have been with trend that's a big number, and we're missing those workers. >> i have long maintained, but people come back and say what about illegal immigration, does that solve the problem >> i don't opine on whether legal or illegal that's up to congress or the administration i'm just talking about the workers. obviously we want them to be legal. we want people to abide by the law, but i talk to contact after contact after contact. they are shy of these workers. they want some reasonable immigration policy to fix the problem. >> the kato institution agree with his your take on that they have done a good job of
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picking the theme on the conference the theme this year is consfrants on the economy. this is a an important thing for investorsto think about. labor supply constraints, supply constraints overall. we've had this year of globalization, i don't know what is happening right now do you see a world of more constraints on the economy does that ultimately mean a higher run rate for inflation and a higher funds rate to combat it? >> these restraints are in our hands collectively as a society. there are solutions to some of these constraints that we have we just have to decide to implement them on the supply-side constraints, they are starting to heal. things will be different, but i don't think everything's going to come back on shore either i think the reality is for certain goods, it's stip cheaper to produce, no matter what. >> among other things the philly
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fed does a lot of great research, but the manufacture rate is one that's followed by the market what are you hearing from contacts there about whether or not there's any easing in inflation? the july report was better did you take any solace from that number? >> there are glimmers of hope on inflation, but our job is in no way done we can take that as a positive, with you we need though keep acting >> china has off-line for a good part of this year, and that's helped drive up inflation. what is your take on the outlook for globalization, which some people blame for lost jobs in america. proponents say it keeps prices down. >> personally, i think -- i don't like the phrase deglobalization. i think it's reglobalization we've seal a shifting of certain
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production around the world. >> there's been criticism of the fed. by the way, the fed itself has criticized itself over its actions s bill dudley, new york fed president said the fed put all its eggs in the transitory basket last year he no longer thinking that's the indicate when you look back at the performance, you don't have to say there's mistake. that's sort of acknowledged. how do you make it better? >> that's a question we'll be looking at for a long time here at the at the. i think one of the areas that we saw in the pandemic is looking at realtime data, soft data is as important as the hard data. i think reemphasizing, particularly what the reserve
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banks bring to the table, in terms of our contact and what we are hearing is critically important to policy. >> what i see, when i look back at the track record, larry summers, jason fumplen and others saying this was not transitory, yet the fed votes unanimously to -- what about group think? is that a problem at the fed >> it's a human problem, let's start with that. it's a human problem you know, i think, for example, for myself, i started to hear very early in my fall in the contacts that this doesn't feel transitory i think the diversity of opinion we have, because of reserve bank structure is important to the fed, and we need to maintain that. >> but it didn't help you out at this particular turning point. >> but, again, this ship takes a little while to move
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i think there are some lessons learned here we can put in practice. >> that gets you to the other part could it happen against on the back side? how do you know when to turn when would you be looking for a time and how high does unemployment have to go to feel like you have softness in the labor market to take out inflation. >> this is where i'm not in the camp of taking rates up quickly and down i think we go up a bit, and sit for a wheel. there is a risk we overreact >> recession i feel is important, because it engenders a need for clang of policy, either extend unemployment benefits or policy from the fed to help aggregate demand if you got into that recession, would it be something that would change your policy >> potentially, for sure i don't see a risk of sustained recession to be very high at
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this point. >> you're now recently joined by european central bank and other central banks that are raising rates. the dollar has stronger. s those things helping out >> yeah, they should. >> how much do you rely on that? >> first and foremost, it's our actions in the u.s >> last quick question when it comes to neutral, is it based on the current rate or future rate? >> that's a good question. medium long-term rate is somewhere around 2.5%, but you clearly have to get above that we have to get above 3.4, 3.5. >> president harker, always good to talk with you back to you from jackson hole. i love saying that. >> it's so beautiful there >> the rain cleared up, as steve said it would on squawk. we'll see you in a little while.
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get the rates to 3.4, sit there for a while, kind of what esther george said earlier, she wants to see, at least in esther george's case, at least three months of consistent data. >> yeah, some interesting points as well on the workforce, nonetheless more legal immigration. and he pointed out how few raises of more than 50 there have been over the last, i guess 30-plus years. >> that was important context. >> fascinating, all leading up to the fed chair peloton plunging on its quarterly miss, kind of wiping
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>> talk to me about what you do when the metrics themselves are not encouraging, but there seems to be enthusiasm around the ceo. >> as i'm -- we just got off the company's conference call a short while ago. this is very much a work in progress as you mentioned, carl, the ceo is really very quickly work to go rebuild this business model to be clear, success is anything but assured. there's a lot of challenges for peloton both near and long term. what is happening, there's just a lot of repositioning happening with the business model. right. we talked a by about sort of deconstructing what was a very vertical model how much does the amazon partnership really add >> i think it's a positive look, obviously amazon would bring peloton products that a
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bigger mass audience that's a positive. i think more importantly is that it show where is peloton is good barry and his team have mentioned that amazon is the first step i would expect it with other retailer, and more efficient over time. this should be a more efficient distribution model for peloton. >> speaking of models, brian, it says it's on a journey to sustain -- right now it's losing $650 million a quarter so what are you modeling in order to get to a $20 price target >> yeah, on the cash flow, the team, again, mentioned today that they expect next fiscal year i think to be free cash flow neutral in our model -- my team and i are looking at this, we're more conservative we think the cash burn over of next, say, several quarters will be more significant. one advantage that peloton has
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here, they did end the quarter with available cash. so they've got -- at this point they have a pretty healthy balance sheet that gives them some cushion clearly they're burning cash, that's a risk. but to answer your question on the price tearing, i want to make clear, this is a long-term highly speculative call we have on peloton, but we're looking longer term. >> take me out to the out years, '24, '25, '26. >> we're looking out that far. it's going to take a while, and let me reemphasis ze that, and t me qualify this, the point we make is, within this very broad
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fitness landscape, there is a place for a better-run, more capital disciplined peloton. i think the initial expectations we say during the pandemic are off the table. i very much believe the gym business -- another group we cover is lifetime -- operates well >> it's difficult when the initial goals were to replace the gym membership at large. astronomically aspiraaspirationl actually, there's some type of stabilization in sales i don't think we're seeing that yet. there's a lot of moving pieces here with peloton.
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the underlying engagement metrics, meaning how consumers are interacting with the product, are still quite good, but the weak spot has been getting that new customer. again, there's a lot going on here we're coming out of the pandemic during the pandemic demand for peloton is massive, because there wasn't another fitness alternative. so now you're working past that. then you're also dealing with a number of consumer companies i think the overjaw environment is generally healthy, but there are weak disputes. we are seeing some weak spots in spend, on top of that, there's competition out there. there are other products now so to answer your question, we've got stabilized sales that's the first -- it all comes from that, stabilized sales, measure better of underlying demand for this product and move
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from there. >> finally, what's interesting, you see some turnaround stories, a new ceo comes in, communication is a bit spartan, but mccarthy is rather expansive in his comments and his color, wouldn't you agree >> totally agree i think you're exactly right he's kind of come in saying exactly what needs to be done, exact lieutenant the problems he sees i think he's right on. it's a matter of successfully executing on this. >> brian, a tough space. it's gotten tougher. we'll see what happens good to see you. >> nice to see you, too. after the break we're going to talk tesla, the 3-to-1 stock split. chinese technology names are leading, with reports that the u.s. and china are near a deal
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consumer discretionary companies are trying to rebound today, but still down almost 20% to date. tesla completing the stock split, and that is not helping the stock too much this morning. it's barely up, though with the shares right around a flat line, let's gets some thoughts from our senior market commentator mike santoli stock spring overall i g-- spli overall do have -- >> in august 31st of 2020, tesla marked the momentum peak, not just for tesla, because it raced right up to the effective date, but for the nasdaq for a while
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a right there it we want into a pretty good correction of course, this year we have gotten amazon, shopify, a bit over a year ago nvidia split none of them have outperformed, so that's a reminder, even if there's mechanical benefits, there's a lot of attention on how it reloads the appetite. that could get some energy back into it. if you're a stock like tesla with a real strong retail following, you probably have a lot of people who own a share, two shares if you get a 3 for 1 split, now you have 3 or six shares, it's easier to sell a little, not all of it. if you bought berkshire hathaway at 15,000, and the a shares
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before the b shares, you would be in trouble if you had to bail out. that's a small piece of it i think overall the move in tesla is kind of modest. speaking of liquidity, we were talking with cramer earlier about the goldman comment that it will dry up in a couple weeks. do you say that before every labor day. >> i think that's kip of the case i don't knee if it's gamable or gives you directional stuff, but goldman was saying bess hesitant about inferring a message from every move we get. that's probably logical. i think the stock market is sitting here and staring at 3.4 on the two-year note, 3.1 on the ten-year, the dollar where it is, oil where it is, and it's doing okay
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you heard harker there, so that they're trying to make it that 50 basis points isn't such a surprise that's where the market is, okay, we can handle this. >> we'll see what bullard says later this afternoon the dow is up 126. good morning, seema. russian president vladimir putin signing a decree increasing the size of his country's armed forces by 137,000 men to 1.15 million. it comes just a day after putin's defense chief acknowledged the russian military campaign in ukraine that is stalled. a georgia judge is calling a here on brian kemp's efforts to fight a subpoena, asking him to testify before a grand jury. kemp areas team is arguing the governors should be able to postpone his testimony until after the upcoming election. a school board and union representing teachers and other employees in ohio's largest
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school district have reached a conceptual agreement, tentative ending a strike that began on monday the columbus board and education association did not disclose the deal students will continue with virtual learning for the rest of the week carl, back to you. seema, thank you very much a nice turnaround with abercrombie, with a miss on the bottom and the top line, though they do raise the guide a bit. we're back in a moment ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,
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the year, and then we need to let things play out. we talk about long and variable lags, and we actually have to believe it. >> that was patrick harker talking about rate hikes a moment ago with our steve lie liesman. one threat we came up with is trying to convince the market that 50 is not child's play. do you agree >> yeah, i do. i took a lot of solace in what president harker set we've got to see what this does
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to the economy it takes time before the rate hikes translate into economic that seems like a good script to me. how do we have those kinds of reports, yell esther george says supply and demand is still out of wack. it surprised me how significantly home sales have come down. but, you know, carl this is also part of the script, right? the fed wants to slow growth you
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know, it's not at all surprising we sieve wavering housing activity, though we will say the decline in sales has been sharper than anticipated so i think the housing recession may be more severe we haven't seen it in house prices yet, but you suspect we'll see some meaningful price dec declines do you think we're going to wind up, come year end, with some soft nfp reads? >> i do. i think it's already starting to
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happen businesses are growing more cautious the positions are a little over 10 million is still very high, but they feel like soft, unfilled positions as a business person, hiring lots of people all over the world, we have open positions, but we are filling them much more slowly than we would have 6, 12 months ago with the economy. so it feels like the labor market is starting to ease up here by the end of the year, i would expect the gains in employment will be well south of 100k per month, maybe a negative month or two in there as well >> will that mean people will stop working from home i wonder, people working from home, as you seem to be. >> sorry. >> do you think that's affecting
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productivity at all? >> david, you're referring to my dogs that are barking? i apologize. >> no, i can't hear the dogs i can't hear the dogs. >> in my view, i think remote work is here to stay i think it's a game changer. it will ebb and flow, but it's ebbing a bit now, but i think it's here to say ultimately i think it will but productivity enhancing as technology improves and we get better at this, that will result in productivity gains i think, you know, new companies when they form, they're not going to form and optimize around an office space or cubes. they're going to optimize around remote work. as they do, we'll see the productivity gains more clearly in the data. we need more data points obviously, but i would be surprised if, you know, five, ten years from now we don't look back and don't see productivity because of remote work. >> it's such an important topic,
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in terms of the way we work. more to the point, though, on just overall employment, i think you may have heard president harker talk about the need for more immigration legal is certainly what he said he wants, but where are you in terms of the available workforce. did you happy to hear the comments and do you agree? >> totally agree we rely on heavier immigration by definition immigrants are risk takers. and they are key to technological innovation and growth we need more immigrants. that's a real problem. if you go back before the trump administration we were getting about a million immigrants a year by my estimate we're down about 250k last year that's one reason the labor
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markets are tight, and why there's so many labor disruptions. we need a lot more of them going forward. we rely on that very heavily in terms of labor supply, innovation and ultimately economic growth. >> finally just to come back to remote work one more time, do you think it's related to the surprising decline in gas demand, 6% below the average of the 2015-2019 era? and how disinflationary is that? >> you go back pre-pandemic, we were consuming about 21 million barrels of oil, now we're probably around 20 million some of that is just price we're paying more, but some of that is remote work. you can see that in mobility data remember, we used we would look at that google mobility data, and you could see there people still aren't going into
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workplaces nearly to the same degree absolutely, i think that's playing a role in the less demand for gasoline. more broadly, it may in fact be disinflationary. it lowers the cost of all kinds of things, not only the newt, but child care, clothes, you know, everything else that goes into that. >> except -- i still don't quite get how you get to more productivity you mentioned all the things that people are -- and i don't even know what else. just give me a quick, you know, why is productivity, in your opinion, going to go up substantial as a result of remote work? >> just take my case, right? i have clients all over the planet before this, people would join me in dubai or singapore, they could leave fiveiaries later and i never interacted, because it was hard to do now i get on a zoom call, they're all on the same call, we
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can talk with each other, we can plan together, we can execute on consulting projects together more effectively at least for me. that's my own perspective, but -- >> understood. >> that's just an example. >> certainly easier to get on tv from home than going to the studio, right? >> there you go. >> but then we don't get to be with you >> i can actually touch you. >> we're the outliers on set. >> five years ago i had a studio in my office, now my home is nigh studio. my productivity is enhanced. >> as long as it's all about you, mark? [ laughter ] >> it's all about me mark za fl azandyi. thanks
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the ten-year chart is really one of the key things here that i think we focus on. in part i'm mentioning it, because later today mike seubert, elon musk together in brownsville, texas not telling us what it is. just saying that t mobile and spacex are working together to their shared vision of the future it's amazing what can happen over time, in terms of significant changes in market share, and the business prospects. >> i used to think ledger was a bit bombastic, but maybe not. >> a lot of talk, but he followed it through with a lot of actions. we are staying on top of elon musk in a different area, whether or not he's going to buy twitter. we're going to break down what
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lawyers for twitter and elon musk met in court yesterday afternoon to discuss the scope of the data request that musk's team is seeking. this follows from the whistle-blower complaint that raised new questions about security at twitter, privacy and a number of other areas. carolyn berger joins us today. justice berger, good to have you back. >> nice to be here. >> i would like to start with the bigger picture here. does it, in your opinion, change musk's case in terms of his ability to potentially get the chancellor to great he should be allowed to exit the deal >> well, i would be a fool to say it has no impact
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it's clear willy obtained the attention of everybody out there. it's actually a disclosure, not a complaint, but the allegations that are made are fairly serious, but for the most part, they really don't address the twitter v. musk litigation, and the claims in that case. they are much more about alleged incompetence failure to set up controls and security systems. if they're true, they are problems for twitter the company, but those various alleged wrongs don't go to the
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claim that musk has made, which is you falsified how many spam there are, how many bots there are. i'm allowed to walk away because of that. >> right do you expect, though -- it was interesting, is the hearing yesterday that i mentioned in introducing you did not really spend a lot of time, even musk lawyers, on the whistle-blower they mentioned it a couple times. a, does that price you or do you expect at some point they will amend their counterclaim to beef it up to include some of these disclosures, that they will claim as a result of the whistle-blower >> i think there's a reason why it wasn't the focus of attention. the reason is -- well, first of all, because lawyers want to have a lot of time to look things over before they speak about them, but passing that, i
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think the reason why it's not the focus is because it's very tangential it remains to be seen what this is beyond a former employee who's admittedly apparently very skilled, very wellrespected, but he was thrown out of his job, he didn't get along with the ceo, and that was eight months ago and now a couple days before some discovery hearings are going on, boom, here comes an 84-page disclosure with all kinds of allegations in it that capture everyone's attention but really don't go to the musk complaint, or rather the musk counterclaim. >> right do you expect, though, that they will file that counterclaim to include those beefed up claims and/or that the trial may get
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delayed, that the chancellor may order more discovery >> okay. i think there's always a good chance that there will be a little more discovery. that's a pretty open ended issue, and the court can very fine tune it by saying, you know, you can get, for example, you can get zatko's deposition, but only for four hours. and that's a way of giving some discovery, but also not opening the door to two weeks worth of additional information i don't think it's likely that the court is going to entertain a motion to delay the trial buzz once you start down that road it can just keep traveling. in terms of musk amending his counterclaim and adding some of the information that's alleged in the whistle-blower
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disclosure, again, i don't think the court will grant that. >> right. >> it's pretty late in the game, and it at this point there aren't any facts all there are, are claims being made in a document that's been filed and a request that the federal government look into it. >> right. >> so it's -- i think it's pretty marginal. and frankly, the fact that the twitter stock didn't tank. i mean, it did go down that day. >> yeah. >> but it's back up. and it means that people are not taking this as a real game changer. >> perhaps it may be reflective. finally, justiceberger, i did want to come back to something you told me when we first talked july 15th. i asked you about specific performance, the possibility of that, you said especially we lon musk, it's clear whether the order of the court would be obeyed, and the courts in
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delaware, courts all over are concerned about issuing a decision or an order that then is ignored or flouted. i got a lot of people who said what is justice berger talking about that, saying the will of the court would not be obeyed. can you explain? >> well, yeah. the way it works is that you have a claim, you have a trial, you have a decision. and the court says you, company x, owe company y $10 million, and pay up and almost always the court's order is respected and payment is made. but if the order is you, elon musk, now have -- have to buy this huge company and you have to run it, and if you don't feel like doing that, too bad, because i've entered an order saying that it's yours.
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>> right. >> and at that point if elon musk, being a fairly unusual person, says well, actually, i'm walking away from this, and i don't really care what the court has ordered, then there are sanctions. there's no question about that and it would -- it would be messy. >> right, justice berger -- >> the court doesn't want to -- yes. >> i'm sorry, i'm out of time. >> that's okay. >> i feel a feeling we're going to speak again as well appreciate your taking the time, thank you. >> thank you, bye-bye. >> don't go anywhere, we're right back ynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity
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the power problems are generally the most severe in that region and the ev makers, tesla, neo, x pang, all have their own charging stations have indicated to their users to their stations are suspended operations or are operating on a restricted basis. neohas gone as far as to tell its users and suggest to them they want to share their home chargers at least until september 20th other options, like ev charging station operator tell new energy and the state grid are trying to push some of the people there, the drivers there, to charge at off hours. so they're offering steep discounts to try to get them essentially to charge their cars in the middle of the night and, in fact, that's what a lot of the drivers are doing they say they have been driving around searching for stations that are open and also that
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they're usually charging overnight. and sometimes waiting in line for two hours. now, the problems at the charging stations are, for the most part, limited to that region for example here in beijing, the charging stations are operating normally but in the southwest it looks as though the power problems are going to continue. in fact, the province of sichuan has said it's extending its power rationing until saturday chongqing is extending power cuts indefinitely, obviously supposed to have a lot of intact on the industrial -- the industries there in fact, carmaker honda said today it's keeping bits chongqing plant shut until it gets further notice from the government. >> you have to tell people, why are the power cuts taking place? >> reporter: because of the drought, because that area has -- is really big in hydropower and they're not getting those
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power. >> that explains it. the drought, so river's not moving, hydropower not happening. eunice, as always, we appreciate it eunice yoon in beijing for us. that's going to do out for "squawk on the street. time now to send it over to "techcheck." good thursday morning, i'm carl quintanilla with deirdre bosa and jon fortt crm might need to force sales, nvidia has a chip on its shoulder peloton, staging a second half turnaround and finally the ceo of sofi is with us, aanthony nodo joins in just about ten minutes. we're going to start with a pair of earnings movers, take a look at snowflake and sales force. revenue did come in above
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