that is somewhat comforting at this stage. >> there is some belief people like to talk about. maybe set up for weakness. i have a hard time believing that happens in the market. that is just fine. >> the ideal possibility as it cools off a little bit. we had a whole bunch of federal speakers today. it culminates tomorrow morning with powell. we will see you tomorrow countdown to powell. the street rally and the speech from the fed chairman in jackson hole. brace for a healthy dose of tough love. shares of the firm getting howard hammered. we will go inside the numbers. later peloton is spinning its wheels. a big downgrade in the housing

sector. this is fast money live. on the desk tonight. we are going to start with the countdown. jerome powell and under 17 hours. the fed chairman will speak in jackson hole wyoming. investors are keyed in for any signs with how aggressive the feds will be with its rate hikes. the nasdaq led the game up more than 1.6%. the market is on pace for a second straight week of losses. what do markets need to hear from the central bank chairman tomorrow? karen i would love to start with you this evening. what are we anticipating and hearing? given that the market gave a runoff. hoping for bullish news. >> reporter: i am not hoping or expecting bullish news.

so much was made did he pivot or did he not? i do not know how much was traded to today. i think powell will stay the course. inflation is down, which is great. it is so far off of work needs to be. i don't know if they have much choice? they should. now they have a chance to try to get it right. i think hawkish all the way. >> what you think powell may say the discussion? what data points are they hanging onto? especially when we are living this very convicting environment. extremely high inflation. it doesn't make any sense. which data points will be the most important? will powell give us a hint at which ones he is paying the most attention to?

>> you will probably not get too much more than the sort of things they have pointed us to anyway. right? you bring up the most important point, unemployment. if that moves higher that is a real game changer. if you think about the things they were trying to combat with higher rates, asset bubbles and we saw housing rollover. everybody called it a bear market. they wanted to cool things down. they have done that. they haven't cooled the engines of inflation. that really worry a lot of economists about what the pace of global growth will be going forward. timmy i go back to this. you talk to anybody who is running a company right now. the lack of visibility they

have. i would expect unemployment to pick up. we are seeing a huge strain on consumers. if unemployment takes up that's the one thing that cools this economy. it pushes us quickly into a recession. >> tim, now it's your turn. jump in. >> we know they are looking at pc. we have that tomorrow. we will see that employment is roughly 4.7 or 4.8. the expectation is up another 3/10 of a %. we have the kings and sources and men and women out there talking today. esther george says she needs to see 4%. she said longer and higher for longer and rates above 4%. fuller has been very, give us more and give us more now.

get us to 3 1/2 to 4% before you are in. back to the market, we priced in a lot. we talk all the time about positioning. the reality is one thing but the expectation and where positioning are often more important for markets. cash levels are north of 6% of the hedge fund community. s&p future shorts. people are expecting not great news. even though the market had a great july you can see semi conductors have underperformed the market by 5% even after a big move today. a lot of this is at least for now, i think it is getting more priced in. >> when you think about the data that the federal reserve looks that we know everything that is fairly standard. if you are jerome powell would you want to look at things like natural gas prices? and things that aren't totally captured in some of the jobless

claims numbers? you want to look at company announcements about layoffs or slow hiring. you add that into the importance of your data set. so you're not looking at the lagging data when you are trying to make very important decisions that take some time. >> you are trying to fire me up courtney. i did that. you should see this by the way. i will try to be as respectful as i possibly can be. the whole data dependence nonsense that they tried out for years. clearly it was not working that well. i don't know why they would be data dependent now. to answer your question, absolutely. crude gets the headlines and deservedly so. nobody seems to be talking

about it. if i were jerome powell, which are not i would sorta do the lovely dark and deep. i have promises to keep in the form of getting inflation down. i would drop the mic and walk off. that's what's going on. there is a lot of work yet to be done. everything looks great right now. a lot of work has to be done on behalf of the federal reserve. >> who knew you could recite poetry. karen i will turn to you and talk about the housing data we have seen. does it make powell happy to see the data come in the way that it has been trending ahead of this? >> happy is an interesting word. i think inflation is the bogeyman. just to pick up on frost he has to go down the road less traveled. it is a collateral damage he

can live with. if it helps to solve the inflation problem. >> so interesting. robert frost, the most beautiful campus there ever was. if you get a chance to go you should. it's quite lovely. i want to turn to you and ask you about something you need to see is the policy goes forward? >> yes, it goes back to the risk asset bubble. we saw a record relates low rates. we saw a lot of people who had a lot of cash and have the ability to do things they may not otherwise have done with hybrid working. at the end of the day if you look at the housing data we have seen over the last three

years or so what we have done is taken out a bunch of that access. timmy there is negative implications with the whole housing set up. i go back to if unemployment were to pick up i do not understand how we can be in this situation? in taking signals from the ceos we have heard. even though the stock market has rallied over the last couple of months through q2 earnings seasons. there is not a lot of clarity right now. if unemployment starts to take up all the consumer data that people are nervous about right now, we are seeing lots of delinquencies. whether it's phone bills or repossessions. that will accelerate. i think when you think about how much our gdp is reliant on our consumer right now, it's not a great setup for me. stocks after the huge run into the meeting, tomorrow i do not see what good news it would be. he cannot have it right here and that's not good for the

stock market. crude oil around $90. i just don't see it. >> delinquencies, our next guest tomorrow. mike schumacher is head of macro strategy. thank you for joining us here today. maybe you are not surprised about today's rally? do you expect that to continue tomorrow? what are you expecting from the chairman? >> i thought the comments about robert frost were pretty interesting. powell should get in touch with his inner schwarzenegger. my job is to fix inflation and i will do it. does he have that in him? we think not. the market is backed up a ton. look at the treasury. the market is pricing, the market has done a lot of work

already. can j powell hang in there? it doesn't seem like he wants to be that guy. he wants to squash inflation. does he really want to talk the tough talk? we think not. >> would you expect the yields to go on the 10 year? >> briefly down. down something like 15 or 10 basis points. a short lift. jackson hole tomorrow and a light week next week. in september a lot of big events. we think the tenure is up to 325. by the end of the set. ends the year somewhere in the mid-threes. pick a number. something like that. >> michael if the market is openly the witness tree, for

what the fed is thinking, you have a case here. 370 on the tenure. i don't think equity markets are price for a higher rate. the pivot we saw was an expectation of a fed pivot. there was going to be a less aggressive tone. even just the change in hawkishness that much less. what you think about the reconciling too. can you make a call for how equity should be respond to your high raise outlook? >> to me the most interesting thing about the market shift in fed pricing hasn't been so much where do we think the cycle ends, 375 or four or whatever it might be. will the feds move quickly from tightening to easing. a lot of that has been taken out. a month or so ago you had this dramatic shift. we will tighten until december or february. a couple months later than easing. that is not totally knocked out. we think there is a lot more sanity being market.

the idea of a longer fed pause is that good or bad for stocks? maybe that's a good thing. a higher rate probably a negative. to me, it is that much more delayed shift from tightening to easing. that's the big take away. >> michael i bring this up. i'm curious about your thoughts. the bond market is probably historic. a three and half % tenure is not suggestive of an economy that is getting better. it is anything but. inflation is out of control. a tenure that goes back to 2 1/2% is suggestive of economy that is getting weaker. there is an environment where regardless of which will weigh yields go it's embarrassing. does that make sense? >> it seems to me the big take away for the tenure in the two year will be to a large extent two things. one is monetary policy. especially with the feds. what about the global factors with respect to energy in the european economy? how bad is the natural gas

situation this winter? we will find out in the next few months. these things will affect the tenure quite a bit. therefore it is an inflation story and dominating. >> let's go ahead and trade a little bit out of this one. what you make out of mike schumacher's opinion? >> viewers know that. i'm pretty bearish on the economy. the stock market continues to rally. that much more with what i think will happen with the economy. not just here but overseas. timmy i don't think you chase. if you get a rally tomorrow on a friday afternoon at the end of summer, based on something the feds might say or

misinterpret, to me i do not think you chase this here. i do think we will have a retest of 4000 in the s&p 500. there's an unfilled gap there at 8300. >> we will consider ourselves warned. we will's share a comeback strategy next week. is there anything that would be interested in bed bath and beyond? any strategy that could move the deal forward? knowing and some areas the market home goods are still selling. look what we just heard from william sonoma? >> of they were acquired that would do it. i do not think that will happen. good for them for getting financing. them selling a bb division.

i think it is a thick street. there could be lines or equity type structure there as well. it will buy them time, which with his they desperately need. it is not for me. >> there is a lot out there that has been changed. coming up, we are all over the after hours action in a firm. a move after, we will bring you the details next. evaluation conversation. spe anteigging into the ch acd owning in on the big players evaluations. the details when fast money returns. we are back in two minutes

welcome back fast money. sinking after the company issued revenue guidance for the current quarter. a slight earnings miss.

all the details. this is an interesting name. what's going on here? >> mixed results tonight from a firm. expected guidance for fiscal 2023. first let's get on to the top and bottom lines. loss per share worse than expected at $0.65. meanwhile the company is guiding up to $365 million in revenue for the first quarter of the fiscal 23. that is falling short of $386 million. four year guidance, meanwhile gross merchandise value, a total cost of stuff bought through a firm. meanwhile commentary from one

ceo on the state of the consumer. seeing growth in e-commerce is falling back to pre-covid levels. >> very interesting. thank you steve. gross merchandise value of 77%. i find that interesting. i don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing? does that suggest they are more stressed. the consumer and spending and retail and e-commerce, those numbers we are getting in the last quarter are still. the reason you wanted to be short, the first half of the 80% is it is a high multiple tech company that did not make money. we are getting into the one

part of the story that should have investors most nervous. that's the credit side. they talked about a reserve release for next year. timmy, we are talking about labor markets that not only we expected but the feds want to get worse. we have not heard a whiff of credit. a consumer that binged coming out of covid that had a lot of money handed to them and bought on by now and pay later. this is a worsening credit story. if you are somebody that shorts companies, the first part of the move is what you are doing around market dynamics in the worsening environment. the credit story has yet to unfold. that is a reason to stay away from this dock. >> that was my question. we pay attention to things like earning and revenue. retailers love it because it allow shoppers to potentially spend more and buy a little bit bigger purchase than they may

have been able to buy otherwise. what does that suggest to us? >> what does that sound like? i harp back to 08-09. another conversation for another time. in terms of stock let us not forget this was a 176 dollars stock around thanksgiving last year. which was madness. stock has tripled since the may low. which is madness when you think about it. there is nothing to like. i do not think. the path of least resistance is lower. 27 is a good stomping ground.

>> by the way for you bingo players, the worst is yet to come. in terms of credit. tim is spot on. >> that is fascinating. a good reminder of where the stock price had been. it's quite down from that now, sitting at 27? >> the company did one of the most masterful debt offerings. the issue $1.7 billion of a convert. struck at $230 per share and zero coupons. kudos to them for now. that was outstanding. >> that is a deeper firm trivia. good point there. here is what is coming up next

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loopnet. the most popular place to find a space. welcome back to fast money. evaluations have taken a hit in recent months. which names have held up? which could be more vulnerable here? bob has the numbers. >> despite a modest bounce back in technology prices this year the big story has been the

evaluation reset. earning multiples on the most profitable tech names are substantially lower than they were in january. in some cases much lower. a couple of exceptions. tech evaluations increased substantially during covid. in some cases reaching historic highs. microsoft has seen its multiple increase for many years. not this year. it was as high as 36 forward earnings in january. now at 27. other software names have seen lower evaluations. service now often traded for over 100 times forward earnings over the last six years. including early january in this year. was down to 74 in april and it is at 63 today. also an evaluation reset. trading at 24 times earnings in april. alphabet had a huge run in its evaluation during the pandemic trading for a 36 multiple. that is a historic high and it's much lower down.

meta-platforms for example historically treated for an average of 25 more times for many years before collapsing this year. one exception to the evaluation reset has been apple. each was trading at a pricey 28 estimate in april. it dropped back to 22 in june and it has since bounced back. it is 28 again. it was trading at a pricey 48 times in april. it dropped to 27 in june and it is back 50 times today. back to you courtney. >> thank you bob. a couple comments, after hours from other tech names catching your eye. dell and workday. what's going on? >> there are two that are competing. dell is primarily a hardware company. they are talking about cautious

buying behavior. that reminds us of what we heard last night. we talked about it a little bit. a little measure buying activity. you want to pay attention to companies like this. dell does $100 billion in sale. they are a great barometer on enterprise demand. last night $30 billion in sales. those rts of cautionary comments are important. a company like workday actually had positive things to say. it is important. snowflake is a company that does 2 1/2 million dollars in sales. that is a key metric that companies look at. it was off the charts. that trade, it fills up 30 times. i until we seek immaturely reset and a lot of the valuations, look at adobe.

this is important to keep an eye on. also the direction in which the guidance is telling you where enterprise spendings are going. that will be the determinant of the evaluation. any of the names we have seen evaluations fall? is now the right time to move in? if you believe things will swing in the other direction in the near term? >> i do not think interest rates are going lower anytime soon. i do not think tech multiples should be coming down or be more attractive. if anything it makes them look that much more inside. investors need to be careful about tech companies that tell you we are a software or a current revenue story and we are are not reliant on hardware. there are a few companies like that. even peloton. apple is a story we have re- rated the company. it is double where it was from

five years ago. apple deserves as bullet proof of a multiple out there. at least in mega cap tech. tech multiples will be under more pressure. in terms of allocation, i believe industrials and energy look pretty attractive here. >> karen you were nodding your head as tim moore talking? does it make sense to jump into -- is that what you were nodding your head in agreement for? >> exactly. our interest rates being higher? it is hard to see how there is a big improvement in multiples. it is a high flyer software name. salesforce, microsoft may be the first. it is a good balance.

google is my biggest position. some of that is value tech. >> are you in an agreement? >> in terms of google, absolutely. stock is trading slightly higher. if you are looking for a place that makes sense it has a pretty wide and deep mode. some of the other names, it's hard to wrap your head around. snowflake is a great company trading. that is pretty expensive by any evaluation. if you are looking for a place where you can get a pretty significant value in a pretty difficult environment, to me it is google. >> okay, coming up its retail time. both on the move.

details on both of those names next, coming up next. we will tell you what happened in hitting the brakes. when we return ♪♪ hey dad, i'm almost out. i got you. any questions, chris? all good, thanks maura! healthier is managing all your family's prescriptions in one app.

welcome back to fast money. the company posted a profit for the latest quarter. the company did withdrawal guidance for the year. bob morning marty signing unconditional markets. i am surprised with this one that the shares are higher. there were some not so horrible news in this release. there is a lot this company has to work through. >> let's not confuse the stock being higher. the two are mutually exclusive. with that said what is working

is the fact that the recent low basically mirrors the low we saw in march 2020. you have a bit of a double bottom. definitely short interest to trade against. this i don't want to use the word failing company. this is a struggling company with an inventory problem. they posted a quarter better than people were looking for. in this environment you an trade this from the long side and rally 35% from here and still be a failing company. that is how i would trade it. understanding the company does not solving its problems at all. >> this is more of a trade and not an investment. i'm concerned about the inventory they are up 37% year over-year. 20% of it is more than they

would want. a lot of it is basics. it doesn't seem like a great place to be right now. a consumer is being discerning with their discretionary dollars. >> no. i am surprised, like you that it is up. without the ceo we do not know who it will be. they don't know who it will be. you have to think the ceo will lower he bar for themselves dramatically. this is a trade, that may be the case. as a long-term investment a lot of other places to look. >> i think you agree tim. i see you nodding your head. >> i agree. i think of all maybe that which is the all-star brand. they are struggling the most. the good news is digital sales are 34% of the business.

saving them from brick and mortar failures. those are down 6%. when i look in the rearview mirror i do not see consumer that has fallen apart yet. that is why some of this is disappointing. they have gone to great lengths to say they will not buy back any shares this year. they will be prudent on overhead expenses. in some cases it is part of the reason the company has been able to get themselves and transform themselves. it is not an exciting time at this company. it is a talk and roll. that is what this feels like. >> i'm gonna move on to another one. alter popping in the after hours. >> every time i look at the results i shake my head in disbelief. they keep doing it, quarter after quarter. the sales results are pretty amazing. they are able to continue. there doesn't seem to be evidence of a trade down. it's not beauty or cosmetics. what do you do with all of

this? is it a risk not to be involved? >> i caught one of your hits today. it's like lipstick on a pig. if they had to sell lipstick to a pig they would do a bang up job. they goaded guided the low end of their guidance. you have to be confident to put out those numbers. i was surprised the market was an even better. given how big the revenue beat was. i think they had shrinkage. we haven't heard that talked about in a while. the boys may have something to say about that. i thought well it is not cheap. it is more expensive than the market. it should be.

they are doing a fantastic job. kudos to them. as a target shareholder i hope we will see benefits as well. >> absolutely with that tight up partnership. a very good point. i was thinking it could be miss piggy pink. that would be cute. thanks for playing. coming up, at peloton plunge, shares are dropping. more on the cycle stock swing, next. what does the change mean? we will dig into the action when fast money returns. back in two. (vo) hi. we're visible. a different kind of wireless company... ...running on a big impressive wireless network.

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losses ballooning for pellington. an overall gross margin. a serious hangover after yesterday's gains. everything it added after its deal to sold sell some of its products on amazon. what you have to say about this? >> i do not think it is a

selling products problem. it is the evaluation of the company that has been a problem. the only question now is does the stock get back down to eight dollars? that's where it was recently. maybe we will see and it. to try to buy this for an investment, it does not make a lot of sense. it is a trading vehicle now, that is it. >> at times it makes sense to look at where it was pre-covid. an avid peloton. >> the dynamic is some of the trends no, more of a feeling on a addressable market. when they tell me this is moving to a software multiple,

i say go pro. i do not leave it. i have seen this movie before. this is not a name that you are chasing on good news. >> that chart is really rough when you take a look at that. tesla was the single most active stock in the options market today. is now the perfect time for a refresher? >> it is important for people who hold an interest in trading options on the stock. it is at the top of the list. you will multiply the number of shares represented by the options. if you have one call contract

now you will own three. q multiplied by the same number. you also have to adjust the strike price. that will get divided. may you have 300 strike calls. the premium will get divided by a like amount. today we traded 1.87 million contracts. the second option over all. however, overall it had a bearish sentiment. none of the examples interesting stuff. >> interesting stuff.

you were treating tesla around the split. we talked about it yesterday. it was your final trade. >> my take was i would not buy it for this event. there has been support of the stock. people looked forward to it. back in august 2020 the company announced the split. the stock just took off. the nasdaq was off an awful lot. tesla's performance outperform to the downside. if you were to get a big broad market news you have people piling in for something that is not fundamental. that does not make a lot of sense me. i am short and on foot.

the stock has been in this range over the last month. i am looking to play sometime into the end of next month for a move back towards 250. >> i like the trade. for more options tune into the full show tomorrow. at 5:30 pm eastern time. i will see you tn. mi u, bigbear is calling home. one name could be worth a look for your portfolio. the details are ahead. we will be back, right after this with directv i can get live tv and on demand together: football, housewives, football, housewives,

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welcome back to fast money. bank of america downgrading. a sharp deceleration in housing demand. analysts are concerned that stocks are higher. the bank did update a dream finder home. that stock rallied more than seven and a half % today. let's talk about the

homebuilders. >> these are trends that make housing unaffordable. we got news that purchases are being halted. a core entity who has been buying family single homes aggressively for a long time. in 38 cities. they have been the largest buyer in the market. williams-sonoma and home depot are names you want to pick up on weakness here. the williams-sonoma moves have been massive. >> what you think about the

homebuilders? any other suggestions like a home depot or something like that? >> to tim's point, blackstone is a gigantic buyer. that is a sense of an enormous message. we think housing is overpriced. that is not such news. to have the biggest player in the market step back that is important. i do not know if the homebuilders have that sense. all the buyers new or used the existing homes? that news is not great. i am a little bit nervous as a shareholder of lowe's and home depot.

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and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity welcome back to fast money. sports betting, first a sports

gambling company to do so. fanduel includes the cable television network entering a platform. fanduel plus. it will be free. what do you think of this announcement? >> i think it makes sense. after the billions of dollars these companies spent to market against each other. it will be expensive. this will be a big spend. it will force draft kings hands. they will do something similar. >> it's time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim, i will start with you. >> let's get back to energy. look at the producers, they will be debt-free by 24. the entire energy sector. >> it is a great way to play it. >> hopefully the beneficiary of the great news.

>> dan? >> yes, the conversation, i would be a stellar at the x hb. >> the folks in athens, ohio take >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you, mad money starts now. hey i'm kramer, welcome to mad money. i'm just trying to make you a little money. call me, or tweet me at