we have been watching the equities this morning. ahead of the fed meeting and jay powell speaking from jackson hole, you will see red arrows. the market is figuring out he will be hawkish in the comments today. you did see gains yesterday heading into the markets you were talking about a strong day for the markets. dow up 1%. s&p up 1.4%. nasdaq up 1.6% the dow down this morning 74 points s&p futures down 14. nasdaq off 71. what is happening today, the fed speech from jackson hole specifically from jay powell and markets will focus on that it is friday not a surprise to see a pull back treasury market. higher yields. 3.078% for the 10-year treasury. higher than we have seen in recent weeks 2-year treasury at 3.384%.

>> it exaccelerated in the close they knew it was happening today. >> this market is logical and thinks things through. yesterday was yeah today was jay powell is speaking >> it's august >> a lot of people are out. >> thinly traded maybe short covering going in the close as you think people might be this is not going to be great news that we hear from him we have to keep going and going. >> the markets are down with the week with the gains yesterday. maybe that tells you some of this was baked in at the beginning of the week. >> right let the countdown begin. jay powell set to speak at 10:00 a.m. eastern investors will listen for any change in language or hints on the pace of rate hikes if the 75

base points with the next meeting on september 21st. ahead of the speech, atlanta fed president raphael bostic will join us at 8:30 eastern. the other big global market story is the chrisis in europe. it will double the price cap on energy bills that means it will rise to 3,549 pounds which is up from 1,971 pounds a year ago starting in october. the price cap starts -- i should say starting in october. this is how much the average is on for a year. 1,971. up 810% to 3,549 that caps the standard charge energy regulators can charge for electric and gas bills it does not apply to businesses.

it could be more it covers 24 million households. that cap was 1,400 british pounds last fall it has tripled in a year and is likely going higher when the regulators reset in january. all of this is coming as european natural gas prices are soaring. now over $94 u.s. per contract that is ten times what we are paying here and about 30% of british homes use gas to heat homes. this comes as uk policymakers try to dump gas in favor the wind power in the last decade. this story is something brian sullivan has covered very well you are talking about price increases. if you meet that in the united states, the idea of energy bills doubling over the course of the year i can't imagine the pushback politically. >> there's no way to just say okay, the most you will pay is this if it costs a lot more than

that in the real world what does the government do? cover the difference >> that's why there's similar cap doesn't exist for businesses businesses will have to eat it. >> if the government -- someone has to pay. >> taxpayers are going to be paying this one way or the other. you can imagine it will go to the wealthier taxpayer >> it reminds me of what is happening here oh, well -- yeah well, you know, somebody else will pay for it. yeah if they don't pay for it, it gets added to -- are you spending more than you are taking in. you have the fed again >> printing money. >> right sooner or later, all of us have to suffer a recession to cover the overspending that we've done for the past >> this is unique.

they are not overspending because they are whimsy ical they allow themselves to be in this position with russia. this is not the same as saying we're going to buy out the student debt and cover ppp loans. >> those dollars or pounds that governments owe. you know, you don't know which ones came from putin and this came from us doing stupid things domestically they are all the same dollars and pounds there are too many of them around right now that's what we're dealing with with chairman powell. it is ending up in his lap >> it is speaking of energy there is also a big story from california this week the state is banning the sale of new gas powered vehicles by the year 2035. yeah 13 years away. the rule was issued by the

california air resources board yesterday. that change means that automakers will be forced to speed up production of cleaner cars starting in 2026 until sales of only zero emission vehicles are allowed in the state. this is one that also has your head spinning with the ramifications for this it is california, but other states in the past have copied what california has done new jersey and others. i think the bigger issue is pointing back to the situation europe is in they were overreliant on one source for energy, natural gas, because they didn't find ways to diversify. you can put yourself in a tricky position to what is happening in china this week with the drought and not enough water for hydro electric power as a result, they are shutting down ev charging stations in china. >> a lot of things to think about. not enough charging stations >> not enough batteries.

>> crappy mass transit system they have, they need cars and car pooling. you need more cobalt you need this stuff. thank god you can plug it into the wall and energy is right there and right to the car you don't need to have -- >> california has a great electrical grid system california's electrical grid is in shamshambles. >> they are not thinking about this plug it in the wall. take it one step further where is the energy? if it is expensive, whether natural gas or how much will it cost to charge the car >> it costs $56,000. for retail consumers, this is the baseline you have to pay for a car? otherwise, if you can't afford that car, you are out of luck.

>> what are the electricity bills? >> these are a lot of questions. >> they are not thinking about it. >> this is not even something the legislature put through. this is some board that gavin ne newsom, the governor, set up they had unanimous vote on it. this has not been put to the people. >> i hope they have really good weather because of this in california china and india are going breakneck with coal plants no matter what california does, will it lower global temperatures one iota? that is a rhetorical question. >> i understand the need to feel like you want to do something if you believe global warming is doing all these things. >> you have seen -- >> this is going to be unintended consequences when this comes back. >> you see the memes of putin and xi saying go ahead go green winking. they're not. they're going to sell into it. china will sell into it with

batteries and technology and all that stuff they are very comfortable with coal in corporate news, bed, bath & beyond will provide an investor update next wednesday morning. i'm writing that down. retailer has been working on a turn around strategy as it burning through the meme stock $10.36 some stocks to watch this morning. we will suggest them to you. gap is reporting an unexpected quarterly profit retailer results helped jump in sales of dressier clothes at banana republic chain as more people return to office. where is that happening? shares are under pressure. the company of affirm with weaker than expected outlook the provider of buy now pay later services did see revenue top street forecast.

dell technologies is reporting quarterly results revenue below estimates. sales falling after the pc sales boom dell did report better than expected ea ed earnings for itst quarter. when we come back, what investors want to hear from chairman jay powell. and elon musk wants to help make your cell phones more clearer. stay tuned you are tcngwahi "squawk box" and this is cnbc ain. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

finding the perfect project manager isn't easy. but, at upwork, we found him. he's in adelaide between his color-coordinated sticky note collection and the cutest boxed lunch we have ever seen. and you can find him right now on upwork.com when the world is your workforce, finding the perfect project manager, designer, developer, or whomever you may need... tends to fall right into place. find top-rated talent who can start today on upwork.com to adapt in the changing world,

you could hire a professor of theoretical mathematics. we all know this equation, right? he'd crunched numbers day and night. that's it. to maximize profitability. morning. i have quarterly numbers that are beautiful. and forecast revenue from every corner of your organization. is that important? or you could use workday. the finance hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. for a solve problems like a genius world. workday. for a changing world.

millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile.s like a genius world. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network and most recommended wireless carrier. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there. and it's never too late to join them. get $450 off any new purchase of an eligible samsung device with xfinity mobile. or add a line to your plan today at xfinitymobile.com in order for small businesses to thrive, they need to be smart. efficient. agile. and that's never been more important than it is right now. so for a limited time, comcast business is introducing small business savings. call now to get powerful internet for just 39 dollars a month. with no contract. and a money back guarantee. all on the largest, fastest reliable network. from the company that powers more businesses than anyone else. call and start saving today. comcast business. powering possibilities.

as investors wait to hear from fed chief jay powell later this morning, futures are weaker of course, this comes after big gains yesterday. that was a market that did move up through the session the strengths at the close dow off 80 points. nasdaq futures off 76 jo joining us is a.j. oden at by mellon and linda linda, let's start with you. we knew the fed chairman is speaking from jackson hole we are anticipating it is hawkish. why did the market picked up into the close yesterday and how significant of a pull back would you expect if he is hawkish as expected >> good morning, becky

thanks for having me i think we're still in the summer months with light volume. you have bigger up days and down days we don't think it means that much what happened yesterday or what we should expect today because the markets do believe that he will speak hawkish he spoke hawk ish a month ago. if he says anything along the lines of we see some weakening in here, but we're going to be measured, that is measured and that market would continue to cheer that it is not continuing draconian >> a.j., you are more concerned. this is the end of what you were calling a bear market rally. why is that? >> thank you for having me, becky. part of it is the market may not have priced in the impact of quantitative tightening would

be we understand it will exaccelere in september that will put pressure on rates. i think the market has been anticipating or alluding to the fact the fed may pivot we saw that in the fed futures potentially put the pricing cut in and that has pulled back from the comments which come from the fed governors. so, i think the market is trying to time out in easing. i don't think that is the message that will be broadcast today. it hasn't been the message we have been hearing from the fed governors. >> you both have different opinions over what comes next and how calm or not calm the markets will be about it a.j., if you think a pull back is to come, where would you tell investors to put their money or tell them to get out of the markets? >> i think what we're telling investors is we are slightly under equities we like fixed income, but more

on the short duration side we think there is a buying opportunity to move into equities possibly some time in the fall september, we expect to be vol volatile to the comments made before may be the low volumes in the summer and september, we believe, is a selloff. we like u.s. equities over the non developed dollar markets because of where the u.s. is from the tightening standpoint as how we are handling inflation relative to uk and europe with double digit inflation and potential for inflation to move higher there especially with the energy supplies and importers relative to the u.s. is exporter. >> linda, where do you see opportunities in the market right now? >> i like to emphasize we add federated her mes are quite concerned with the markets here.

we recently reduced our suggestion for equity exposure and lifted cash exposure to the highest level since i began my career there 32 years ago. we think the markets do not appreciate the fact that inflation,if it has come off the peak, is going to be stubbornly high. we continue to see evidence of the '70s all over again. if we have a bear market rally and i agree with what the other guest has said, this is a bear market rally anybody who has gotten bullish here since the middle of june has done it for technical reasons and not fundamental reasons. we know there are many problems we have to face in the last 12 to 18 months we at federated are looking wide range while inflation comes down and we are cautious and conservative with an overweight on cash and strong suggestion toward high quality dividends and securities all you have to do is see energy

strong and utilities strong to come out of the rally to know the defense is still the name of the game >> when you say you are really emphasizing cash, does that mean anytime there is a dip, you would not suggest anybody step back into the market >> the dip has to be more severe than we have seen. we are suggesting from 3400 to the bottom of the range to 4200 which is around the 200-day moving day average and not able to pierce on the upside. if we see pretty good weakness, we'll find pockets we see good pockets of potentially in the small cap area and in some of the better high quality growth stocks that are out there. just in general, you know, be patient. '70s have strong bear market rallies and vicious pullbacks. if you want to be cautious and making money, dividend stocks gave you 77% of total return in

the decade of the 1970s. value still remains. >> can you toss out sectors in particular with dividend stocks or specific names? >> sectors and the most inexpensive sector looking back 15 years is the energy patch we remain with the energy patch. we like communication sectors which is a sector with large cap companies. they could keep dividends up and dividend oriented and that is an inn expensive sector we like materials. >> linda and a.j., thank you both coming up, it is not september -- it's not? not even september and black friday battle is already brewing. why are leaves coming off the trees already? why? >> it's hot. so hot and dry >> the sun seems like it is not around as long.

>> days are getting shorter. >> first day of fall doesn't start. >> the longest day was in june >> it is september -- when does fall start we have another month of summer. enjoy. please it goes too fast >> where your white tomorrow or monday. >> we are coming right back. >> that's why i'm wearing light colors

welcome back to "squawk box. elon musk's starlink is teaming up with t-mobile to end dead zones. he was speaking, elon, at a spacex facility in texas last

night. the ceo of t-mobile was speaking actually he will dedicate the slice of the spectrum into starlink next year the partnership means users cell phones can connect to satellites in orbit i don't know that's what i said it's complicated do you not need all those ugly things >> the phones you already have work and can connect to the satellite? >> that is a question. >> that would be cool. >> there was the company that had for military use. >> huge brick phone you take if you are out in battle. >> they were satellite no dead zones anywhere i can understand a little bit better black friday battle intensifying with fedex and key contractor that is issuing a

holiday peak ultimatum frank holland has more >> fedex filing a lawsuit over misinformation about the ability to deliver during the holiday peak coming from the contractor for fedex ground i spoke with the ceo of fedex ground about the suit and contractor he will stop delivering before black friday >> very important for us that we do this to protect our brand and our customers and vast majority of service providers are committed to the outstanding holiday season i know many service providers have no interest in refusing to deliver on black friday. we are always ready with contingencies to keep the network stable >> a lot of people don't know this fedex ground is operated by 6,100 outside contractors. the largest operates in ten states he claims many of the contractors are operating at a

loss because of rising fuel and vehicle costs. it could be as high as 50% based on discussions with contractors. the meeting was attended by 3,500 contractors. this is video of the keynote from the meeting he claims fedex offered to renegotiate contracts, but in the in good faith. >> for many, you have the same story you requested negotiations and unable to get a sponsor getting a denial >> fedex's lawsuit is not based on the claims, but renegotiated contracts in the last three months analysts don't expect an increase of operations, but this could increase the targets from the investor day back? j in june back to you. >> it is more expensive, frank it sounds like this is wrangling. they will get it done.

margins somewhere will be impacted >> i spoken to a lot of the contractors. there is a number of people who feel fedex needs to give them financial relief many who want to renegotiate or sticking point is sunday delivery it is not profitable they are contractors they buy a route and they make the numbers work after they buy that route. >> what route is the largest contractor if this is a piecemeal situation, we are all wondering in we are using fedex and if it will work. a huge issue this is playing out right here if it is piecemeal, the ones who are angriest, where do they cover? >> largest in the midwest who operates in the ten states and 200 routes that is the question, becky, how many contractors are upset and how organized this is.

expspencer patton is calling fo purple friday which is closing the business before black friday he is speaking for himself he cannot organize a horizontal effort to boycott or work stoppage it is not clear how many workers or contractors are upset and how upset they are are they upset enough to close down their business? remember, they make money by partners with fedex. >> again, that important time. if it is not delivered in time frank, thank you obviously this is a continuing story. you have been all over it. we will continue to look for updates. >> thank you. when we come back, energy crisis hitting the european economy and the united states could be feeling similar pain soon maybe not quite as severe, but it could have blowback, too. we will talk to a senior analyst at goldman sachs next.

you see wti up this morning. let's look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers meta up 7.9% leading the way afrnl . >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure goi ough the " ”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

(vo) while you may not be closing on a business deal while taking your mother and daughter on a once-in-a-lifetime adventure — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your dreams, and the way you care for those you love. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.

good morning well come back to "squawk box. we're live in the nasdaq market site in times square we are pulling back a little bit. the dow futures off by 86 points s&p futures down 15. we continue to watch the energy crisis unfolding at this point in europe. in the uk, the country energy regulator announced the price cap will soar 80% on october 1st. they cite a rise of wholesale gas prices back here in the u.s., natural

gas prices are near a 14-year high joining us now is samantha dart. goldman sachs senior energy strategist looking at your notes. staggering to me, samantha some of the problems are the nord stream that shutdown for three days putin will continue probably to play around with that stuff. in this country, we got an lng facility down in freeport. an extension of maintenance. then we have to worry about france because they are done maintenance on nuclear reactors. then you have to worry about china because of the heat wave and drought. how -- this is a global marketplace and we have to worry about hot spots all over the world. >> yeah. i think the main difference between what's happening in the u.s. and what is happening with the crisis in europe is that

europe would love to have additional lng exports out of the u.s. there is a limit to how much gas u.s. facilities can send out that limit is liquid capacity. this is a specialized technology you can't just keep exporting as much gas as you want despite the incredible spread with u.s. natural gas prices at $9 to $10 and european gas prices at $90 i did not mispronounce that. $90. you have an incredible spread in price. there is only so much the u.s. can export the link between the u.s. and the european situation from a fundamental perspective is not fully there for the near term. what can play a role, though, is a couple of things one, sometimes you do have some

sympathy moves in u.s. natural gas prices when european gas prices move a lot. we saw this past monday clearly. also, i think we need to watch coal prices. we have to remember coal is also at record high levels and u.s. coal prices do follow international coal prices as well this has increased natural gas prices indirectly. in the u.s., you look at balances and you look if things go tighter, it will have to rise to higher prices as well. >> there is contagion and natural issues we have problems with crude. you know, that's around the world. if it is going to be --we see where brent is wti can't suddenly be $30 below

that probably. then the natural gas, the contagion i'm talking about, europe and it is a cold winter and europe is in a recession because they cannot power manufacturing facilities, that will be a contagion to us as well we are not an island over here we have to keep our eye on what is happening it could get a lot worse here. the energy crisis there could have imagine major effects in td states >> you touched on two important points gas-to-oil substitution situation in europe is significant at this point because it is not just about generating electricity with oil. it is about all these announcements we're hearing every week from industrial users of natural gas saying natural gas is more expensive than oil i may not even have access to it i'm just going to use oil in my boiler instead

this is something. the substitution is something we saw last winter. we think this winter can play out more significantly because of substitution in the industrial sector as well. if the refining sector was already tight for oil, this will tighten it even more for sure. >> yeah. thanks, samantha they laughed at you a couple of years ago and said i'll focus on hydro carbons and fossil fuels they are not laughing anymore. they are lucky to have you at goldman sachs. >> how can you do an energy transition before you eliminate the demand for hydro carbons >> i'll worry about that later that is like knowing what's in a bill before you pass it. don't worry about that we have to get rid of the bad weather. we have to move. we have to move now. thank you, satisfy man in. good to have you on. when we come back, consumers may be feeling the pinch of higher energy prices here, too,

and food costs they are still spending on beauty products. we'll talk about what the lipstick indicator tells us about the health of the u.s. economy next later, don't miss the interview with the atlanta fed president raphael bostic he is speaking with steve liesman in jackson hole. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

williams-sonoma is jumping into the virtual world the ceo telling jim cramer last night they are collaborating with roblox. >> west elm is the first home furnishing retailer to provide and be a partner and provide digital furniture and partner with roblox. >> consumer brands including nike and gucci announced tie ups with the company to introduce brands to younger aaudiences williams-sonoma says this will generate income for the company. in the virtual world, you get your furniture when you order it i have been waiting months for

my kitchen chairs from williams-sonoma. >> can you happen what happens in the virtual world >> in terms of what happens? no this girl is going to like me. >> can you do that >> if you are dealing with ai, sure joe, you're the best >> zuckerberg was saying and i feel bad important mark. he seems comfortable in the meta world, doesn't he? does he not like this world? >> you know, if you have grown up behind the screen, you know, working through the screens. >> one of jim cramer's funny lines he tweeted was mark failed a test. >> i do remember that. i do remember that i think he said it on our show >> i think he did, too okay it is called the lipstick indicator. it has given companies a good sense of the economy and where people are determined to spend money. courtney reagan joins us with

the story. how is the lipstick indicator doing these days, court? >> pretty well, becky. consumers are cranky filling up cars and grocery carts with inflation, but looking their best ulta net sales increased 17% from the year prior. coty sales up 10%. that's the parent behind brands like cover girl and max factor and burberry estee sales grew 9%. target sales saw high single digit growth and sephora with kohl's are seeing an increase as well and coty beauty sees no sign of slow down, but trading up to brands lipstick indicator is an economic trope when lipstick is the last thing shoppers give up. the fragrance indication may

encompass ages and genders >> we love to talk about the fragrance index. fragrances are booming specifically in the u.s. globally, this category is 20% ahead of both levels of 2019 this really speaks ahead to what is unique about this category. that says things about who you are and how you feel which are two important elements currently. >> i guess as we reemerge, we want to smell good estee sales were 22% ulta saw double digit. macy's ceo says fragrance demands is a standout for the retailer if you look at the retail etf, shares up 2% eyes, lips and face shares up 55%. coty up 22% in the same period, becky. >> court, we have been looking

at the lipstick indicator for decades. i wonder how much it messed up with people excited to buy lipstick because they took off their masks. how did covid and all of those things play into it this time around >> i know. that is a good point i thought the same thing maybe because we did not buy it for so long, and now we are, we are seeing a jump. if you look deeper within the beauty category. fragrance is a good example. you know that certainly is beyond lipstick. they are seeing strength across the board. jeff talked about color cosmetics coming back. gen-z is contouring and clean bought beauty is important. sales is taking off in a category that didn't previously exist. a lot of consumers are associating cosmetic and skin care is wellness which is a trend that is not going away

we are staring at our faces on facetime or zoom you can't help but give yourself a look before the people you are talking to i have to imagine that has something to do with this. >> what is lclean beauty >> it is the idea that products are cleaner and they are less filled with artificial inn ingr ingredients. they are vegan or gluten free. performance wasn't as good, but coty ceo telling mainee they ha done a better job with the clean beauty category. the betters cosmetics get, the more consumers are willing to pay for them >> interesting gluten free really helps some people i know, courtney, people who

have a condition, right? >> yeah. >> for someone with celiac or whatever it is, with gluten free makeup be better for them or is it just -- i could understand it the whole -- look, it doesn't matter no gmos of the i need gmos you really like some believe me there are things gmos do make natural food so much better oh, no gmo. people don't know. >> i will say i bought a vegan leather chair. you know, i don't want to kill animals if i don't have to >> okay. just make sure >> vegan leather is just pleather. >> enjoy your beyond meat steak. >> i'm not a vegan >> cows are really nice. you know how cute pigs are

think long and hard. you better tread lightly. >> i still eat meat from time to time not that often if i buy clothing. >> you know me too well. i drive 35 >> courtney, you don't know if people that have a condition benefit from gluten free >> i don't >> saying it is gluten free who have a condition there are idiots out there to pay up for a gluten free makeup because? >> if you are trying to avoid gluten all over your body, it makes sense. why put it on your face? >> i'm going to look at it i may start avoiding gluten all over my body as you said. >> can you roll around in it >> i got a big vat of gluten i did stop using talc 30 years

ago. the chemical structure that looks like it could be carcinogen ick i don't want it near me. that vat of gluten at home, getting rid of it. coming up, the unofficial end of summer means a big return to the office summer means a bir to the office push for many companies. we'll talk about the battle brewing between workers and employees at some well-known firms when we return power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities.

while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. school is back. and dick's sporting goods has everything you need to gear up so you can show up. and, with our best price guarantee, if you find a lower price, we'll match it. with value like that, it's never been easier to sport your style.

- common percy! - yeah let's go! on a trip. book with priceline. you save more, so you can “woooo” more. - wooo. - wooo. wooooo!!!!! woohooooo!!!! w-o-o-o-o-o... yeah, feel the savings. priceline. every trip is a big deal.

a group of apple employees who call themselves apple together are pushing back against ceo tim cook's call to work in the office three days a week starting in september they're circulating a petition demanding location-flexible

work let's bring in a harvard business school professor and author of "remote work revolution". and we know you well the book obviously is your take on things, where we're headed. and i know your belief is that we are firmly moving toward a more flexible workplace. but it seems to me that there are going to be some bumps in the road apple's not the only workplace saying they want people back three day as week. our own company has said the same thing, nbc universal. they would like to see people back in the office at least tuesday, againwednesday and thuy so when they are there, there will be people to work with. i begin to wonder if the inmates are unrunning the asylum here. >> on the one hand, it's incredibly important for companies like apple to say by this date we want to get people back into the office for at

least part of the time it's very important to do. otherwise it will never happen, right? people are so content and satisfied with their remote arrangements the pushback that we're seeing, though are people who are resisting blanket mandates that are not connected to work goals or productivity. they're resisting the idea of butts in seats they know when they have hybrid design that treat the office as a tool for exclusive uses. otherwise people feel like they're being asked to come to the office for physical presence which is different from the exceptional performance that they delivered remotely. >> i get that, and i can understand people saying, look, this doesn't have to do with productivity it's a lot more expensive if you expect kn expect me to commute into a ma major metropolitan area, but

when a company says look, we want you here three days a week and they are unified days. there are things that you miss when you are not in person you start to forget what people look like if you haven't seen them in years on end is that kind of the workplace ri right? is that the employer's right i i'm paying you, i want you here certain days >> of course the employer can set these mandates, they can say i want you here for a portion of the time and what you are talking about are really called anchor days. it's really important that people show up during the same days so that there's coordination, otherwise i show up, no one's there, and tomorrow the next person shows up and no one's there. so coordinating and having anchor days is critical. i think what people are pushing back is the three days a week and this idea that i come in to do exactly what i would do if i was at home. so to really reinvent how we

think about the office and how we spend our time in the office is really what they're pushing back on. the second thing that's incredibly important here is that diversity we know that women, families with young family, with young children black and brown professionals disproportionately thrive in remote environments. this is what the last two and a half years has revealed. how do we create workplaces that is dynamic enough and flexible enough to help people thrive and -- >> top performers will always be given some leeway, especially if you have young children, i think we all get that, but they want the diversity in the office. i have about 14 other things i want to ask you, fortunately,que have you back very soon. good to see you. >> always good to see you. coming up, we're going to

head out to the flushing meadows courts and talk about the big business of tennis i can't wait to talk about the change of you're allowed to coach from the stands now. >> does that mean you're going to be jumping in hey! you used to be banned. >> they were doing it, but it was banned now they're going to allow it, but there's a lot of controversy.

the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.

good morning futures giving back some of yesterday's gains, as the markets wait for j. powell's big speech at jackson hole the earnings season that keeps going and going and going. a run down of the morning's movers and when elon musk isn't fighting with twitter or tweeting he's trying to bring cell phone service to the nation's dead zones. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in

times square i'm joe kernen with becky quick. andrew is off today. a rally at the end of the close yesterday to end 300 points bo we're going to talk about interest rates and all that because of the big jackson hole speech coming from j. powell at 10:00 a.m. this morning. ten-year ahead of that at 3.07 and oil and natural gas right now is, and it's all related, isn't it but oil, 93, that's getting kind of a minute i uptrend. >> it's been an incredible run for natural gas prices

what the hell was happening 14 years ago? >> 2008 was the last high. were you talking about the financial crisis >> all these records that we set, even some of the other ones that we talk about it's like, ever since 1930 there were no suvs in 1930 i don't understand it should be all-time records. >> you see the atlantic ocean was 83.3 degrees off of atlantic city yesterday up from 55 d degrees on august 10th the water's been freezing off the jersey coast all summer long and now it's the highest levels on record for this time of year. >> yeah. >> but it has to do with the winds. i couldn't figure out why. >> on a record on a 4 billion year old planet. how about 100,000. >> probably a little hotter

around the time the dinosaurs died out. >> 130 million >> a lot's hanppened i took a physiology class, the last ice age, the glaciers came down to new jersey at that point. let's get to frank holland he's got a hoolook at this morning's premarket movers >> by the way, did joe just say what happened 14 years ago on cnbc he's going to be a meme. retail tech, darling, affirm, shares down more than 12% right now. it reported a beggaigger than expected quarterly loss. it is falling back to pre-covid levels

gap share surging this morning up right now, almost 7%. that's after a big beat on pos, citing a laundry list of issues, including inflation. gap also searching for a new ceo. ulta moving higher raising its full-yearguidance. we just talked about makeup. shares of ulta up. one more look at meme media, bed bath and beyond, after saying it will provide a checkeconomic up, it still does have elevated short interest amc, gamestop, all down double digits over the past week. in the meantime, meta

platform ceo mark zuckerberg speaking on the latest episode of the joe rogan experience. he says his company will debut a new headset this october it will have new features intended to help users feel an experience of what they call social presence. >> coming out in october, you know, the, there are a few big features the one that you're talking about, basically social presence the ability to now have kind of eye contact in virtual reality >> hmm. >> have your face be tracked so that way your avatar, it's not just like this still thing but if you smile or if you frown or if you pout or, you know, whatever your expressions have that in real time translate your avatar that's obviously our facial expressions are a huge, that's like, there's more non-verbal

communication when people are with each other than verbal communication. >> we'll talk more about meta and the big tech stocks that have recovered from their june woes joining me, paul, your take on technology has gotten much more nuanced. do you want to haylay out the paradigm you look for in order to choose stocks in >> sure, when it comes to tech you have to glrow, and you have to grow regardless of macro economic conditions. what i look for are companies that will still, this year and next, at least according to the management teams and the reputable analyst, grow their revenue and eps. and then also, in their most recent quarters, and some of them are dripping on and on and reporting. we had a few this week and even

a couple last night, i want to see post-conference call, numbers rising, not falling. and when you use that dual-fold test, unfortunately, you have a pretty small list of tech. i'm not bullish in the sector, because it's very hard for my list of bigger companies to pass both those tests >> in terms of the semi-conductors, that's been the surprise this week with nvidia, or maybe not a surprise when the picture didn't get any better based on what they've told you lately, you've changed on semi-conductors. >> when you see bellwether companies like nvidia, and then in a span of a few short weeks doing it yet again, the problem is there are too many head winds

in semi-conductors that's going to impact semi-conductor equipment and again, another reason you don't want to be too aggressive in technology, because these semi-conductor stocks and those related to them drive the sector, and then quite often, as you know, the tech sector drive the overall market so when you see nvidia, and they weren't the only one i'm much more cautious than i had been let's wait and let some of these cloud the clear. you cannot buy even what you sthi a r think is a relatively inexpensive stock with the numbers going down >> would you be underweight the entire technology sector at this point? >> i would be either underweight or no more than equal weight the problem is with these stocks

given by what people feel about interest rates and inflation has really lifted the aggressive growth names and tech names, and i just don't think they have the fundamentals currently and perspectively. if you are the most aggressive investor, just wait equal wait the group. it's about 28% >> let's talk about stocks, individual stocks that actually pass your smell test that meet with the criteria laid out. anybody who kind of stands out at least with what you've heard this week? >> yeah, so i'm taking a look at all the companies that reported this week. and palo alto networks, which think is the cream of the crop in cyber security, we know that's a robust theme, really showed he showed me something, so i would

focus there, actually, snowflake did the same the only in problem in my mind with snowflake, despite the fact that it will continue to grow its top line is it's pretty expensive. now ones that are on the dunce list in the class, essentially, everybody else nvidia, salesforce dell, marvel last night. >> i thought you liked another company, too i got to look up and see who it was. oh, intuit you like that one, too >> yeah, i like intuit the problem with intuit is their eps numbers have come down though they had a terrific number reported this week. so when i take a look at my dual test, maybe they pass one but not the other. but intuit is a wonderful

company, tightly managed you know they essentially have a monopoly often dn doing our tax. so i admire the company. long term i like it. i think it should and core of any tech portfolio, not as much as i like palo alto. >> if you say would you be underweight technology, what would you do with the rest of the cash do you keep some cash on the sidelines or diversify excellent question, becky. i do have, almost ever since last thanksgiving a cash hoard

and i would like to focus on those namis just mentioned, but still at the end of the day, i still have dmash portfolios that in some of them exceeds 20%. >> wow, 20%? that is a lot. when's the last time you ever had cash like that, small. >> paul? j >> it's been a while i've taken beatings, and yeah, i've learned lessons over time so to have extra cash to be valuation sensitive. people think you can't do that in tech. i disagree and then make sure that the names that you invest in are these names at that can weather and actually grow through and continue to raise estimates. >> they're playing us out, but what would you look for, it's

got to be nerve wracking with your cash losing value >> i would say if we have a little bit of reversal and get back to where we were in june, before we had this huge rally in tech >> then you'd jump in. paul, thank you. >> thank you >> hmm so joe rogan's out of the doghouse, i guess in. >> i guess so. >> i mean if zuckerberg goes on. >> zuckerberg must have very intentionally looked at this and said this is an audience he wants to court, that he absolutely thinks this is the play for the meta verse. >> did you think about the spotify? neil young, joni mitchell. >> i thought roggin was in the process of getting canceled. >> a lot of those artists said never mind, we're right back on spotify. in they all came back.

>> god forbid they speak their mind >> i've got opinions, too. >> and you say them! you have three hours a day to say them >> the market's getting ready. >> andrew twitter feed >> the market's getting ready for chairman powell's speech go joe, both joes. live report from jackson hole. all three joes first we're going to talk the business of tennis in the u.s. open you know, serena turned pro in 1995 >> has it been that long >> do the math amazing. the tournament is one of the biggest money-making events in new york city. it's going to be an intense two weeks without the joker.

your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

u.s. open is kicking off on monday the event is one of the biggest money makers for new york and ticket sales are rising after serena williams announced it would be her last pro tournament joining us is usga ceo, that's a ho lot of consonants. good morning >> good morning. >> hopefully serena will offset a little bit of the

disappointment from djokovic, what are you going to do it's not your decision he's not allowed to enter the country based on covid protocol, right? >> that's correct. we would have loved to had him in the field but the federal policies being what they are, he's not able to get into the u.s. to travel to the u.s. and if he were here, he would be eligible to play, there are no vaccine requirements, but it's going to be a great tournament regardless >> serena, we were just doing the math, i still think of her as very youthful and shye is very youthful but 27 years jorda jordanesque, i don't know who you compare her to one of the greatest athletes >> she has transcended our

sport, she's the greatest player to ever step on the court. she has blazed her trail along with her sister. a new trail into our sport against all odds, and i think she's inspired millions of fans around the world, not just to pick up a racket and maybe achieve excellence in sports but also to try to achieve excellence in life and she's a great, great representative for all the great things that come through tennis and come through sports and the opportunities that are created, andwe're hugely appreciative that she was able to announce her evolution away from the game in advance of this tournament, which gives her fans an opportunity to properly celebrate her on the game's biggest stage before she starts to leave the court >> an amazing event. l i love it every year i couldn't believe, lew, how interested i got in the nuance for whether you should be

allowed to coach from the stands in tennis, and how would you regulate that, and the rationale for doing it there's a lot of, i guess, sort of legacy players that are making the point that it's an individual sport and part of the kpe sig competition is getting your head together and facing the problems your coach has prepared you for prior to the match, but he shouldn't be there after every point, telling you what to do. and it just seems like that, you're opening up a pandora's box. i can't imagine how much coaching is going to be done, but you might say it's been going on anyway, we might as well have a say, but i don't know, maybe just enforce it better and keep the rule the way it is. i don't know how i feel. i saw both sides really explained well when i looked into the issue >> yeah, joe, you know, it's taken a long time to get here. and you're right, there are arguments on both sides.

we're very interested to see, does it create a new dynamic that will pull in more fans or hold your interest to see what transpires, we've actually been experimenting with coaching during the qualifying tournaments here for a number of years, and that's gone very smoothly the atp is introducing coaching. the women have had on-court coaching during some breaks for many, many year, and we don't think it's ever taken away from the competitive aspect of the sport, the individual aspect of the sport. and at the same time, we also recognize that there is coaching that is taking place it puts a huge burden on the officials to try to manage that over the course of a match, and we're optimistic that it's just going to further elevate the level of play. that will be new this year, and it's going to be interesting to see thousahow it mayes plays oue course of the tournament. >> novak not withstanding, we're

trying to put this pandemic behind us. where are we, 80% of the way now? would you say? versus 50 last year? >> as we plan for this year, we're looking at this year very much like 2019, and all of our comps are being measured against 2019, which was a record-breaking year for us in terms of fan attendance and all of the revenue driver, viewership all of the things that support this event, drive this event there won't be any requirements or restrictions on fans coming in there aren't really requirements on the people competing. we weren't sure how many fans we'd be able to welcome. even the week before the tournament there was a restriction requiring all fans to be vaccinated we did have great crowds we didn't see the international crowds last year in the way that we're seeing them come back this year, which is great for the

event, also great for new york city so we're feeling, again, things can certainly change we've learned that with covid, but right now we're feeling like we're back to the spectacular event that you'll remember >> there's brgreat star, obviously, i can't help but think of serena. and then think of those three guys unprecedented in history i mean, we had jimmy connors, and all the great players of the past and mcenroe and sampras and andre, but three guys at once probably are all going to be done around the same time. nadal and djokovic and federer someone as always steps up we don't need to worry what happened to the american talent, what happened to the guys in america? >> the last one to win a u.s. open we're excited.

at the grassroots level, we've experienced unprecedented grote. m more than 5 million have come into the sport it's up about 30%. excited that disproportionate growth is coming from youth, it's coming from people of color. i think a lot of that is the serena legacy. but we also have seven players now, in the top 50, on the men's side, seven players in the top 50 taylor fritz, steadily climbed up and now is the highest-ranked american on the tour so we're optimistic, but, you know, those things are difficult to control >> yeah. i play, i have perfected, not everyone cannot move their feet basically at all and i changed my grip, depending on where the, and i can, i can

basically, because it is, it's a lot harder to move all over the court, right have you tried are you any good >> by usga standards, i'm not very good. >> yeah, but i've noticed. >> pickle ball it's fun >> like ping-pong almost >> it's a little -- >> a paddle. >> lew, thank, and good luck >> appreciate you talking to us. >> fastest growing sport in america. >> yeah, it is why do people like pickle ball >> it was made up by these guys, by a guy in his back yard. kind of fun, it's kind of loud when we come back, california is setting up a roadblock for gasoline-powered cars banning new sailes of gasoline powered cars in just years

"squawk box" will be right back after a quick break. time now for today's aflac trivia question. which city's residents can speak more languages than those of any other city in the world? the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues pain show. aflac! paul is about to suffer a shelf-inflicted injury. luckily, aflac will help cover his unexpected medical bills. aflac! maybe you could use the money to buy a step stool. i have a step stool. so why are you climbing a shelf? the stool's on top of the shelf, isn't it paul... (shelf crashing) yeah... ♪ ♪ aflac!

now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. which city's residents can speak more languages than those of any other city in the world? the answer, new york city, with approximately 800 languages, it is the most linguistically diverse city >> that's what we were thinking. all right, welcome back to "squawk box. california is banning the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035. the rule was issued by the california air resources board yesterday. the change will mean auto makers will be forced to speed um production of cleaner cars starting in 2026 until sales of only zero-emission vehicles are allowed in the state i'm thinking about starting a used car lot right on the border >> apparently, you can still buy

and sell used cars could you do it even in california >> are you with me or not? >> it's probably a great place for it >> and how great are used car price right now? we'll do some planning, let's get a business plan, because we have until 2035. check out some of the ev makers tesla already dominates the california sales >> we have talked about a lot of issue, the unintended consequences those cars are much more e pensive. >> the grid doesn't power, you can't plug in a hair drier already. >> the grid collapses, nobody wants to go in and fix up the grid they're going to raise rates by 400% >> what did they say about good intentions? where does that path lead >> to hell >> south >> all right, got to go. when elon musk isn't busy

with tesla or twitter, he's been twinkering, not twinkering, tinkering around we'll get a live report from jackson hole where steve liesman we'setting us ready for chairman poll speech later this morning. "squawk box" will be right back. s help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity

♪ ♪ i was having relationship issues with my old bank. it was just take, take, take. so i moved to sofi checking and savings. get 2.00% interest, and earn up to $300 when you set up direct deposit. sofi. get your money right. [zoom call] ...pivot... work bye. vacation hi! book with priceline. 'cause when you save more, you can “no way!” more. no wayyyy. no waaayyy! no way! [phone ringing] hm. no way! no way! priceline. every trip is a big deal.

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. the markets counting down to j. powell's peach we've already heard from many banks in the last 24 hours steve, this is like opening up the fire hose, what's the take away from all of it? >> good morning, becky the message from fed officials we've spoken to so far is higher for longer it's probably a pretty good bet that j. powell and his keynote speech, he's going to affirm that message of higher for longer his speech takes place in the

shadow of last year where he suggested that it would moderate, but it also takes place after historic rate hikes and a single-minded focus by the fed on fighting inflation. the market much closer to the fed's hawkish view with a 65% view of a hike in september. peaking at 380 april there are still cuts built in. can you see there for the end of next year. fed officials we've spoken to, they have leaned against that outcome of cuts coming with that higher for longer message they've been giving. part of the market pricing came yesterday after st. louis fed president jim bullard told us it made sense for the fed to move faster >> i like the front loading. i like the idea that you get the rate increases in earlier rather than later

we've got inflation right now, we've got a strong labor market right now. seems like a good time to get to the right neighborhood for the funds rate >> there's also talk and powell said this at his last press conference, of moving toward more modest series of rate hikes, but powell needs to be careful not to suggest that they will ease back on rate hikes only that they would be more moderate in the future, becky? >> i guess, steve, the big question is, is anything he says going to be more hawkish than the market's already anticipating we've got some pretty high expectations for that. can't come as a huge surprise if he says something, unless he says it's absolutely going to be 75 basis points. i can't think of much else that would come but i don't fknow that the markt doesn't react anyway >> it's a good point, it's an

observation of how much the market has moved towards the fed. if we were here, i don't know, even as recently as a week ago, certainly two weeks ago, there would be a bigger question of the chair needing to be more hawkish, to do more heavy lifting to bring the market more towards where the fed is the market has done almost all of that itself there was the press conference, talk of a pivot and the parade of officials that came out and said you know what, this idea of these cuts later on are probably not the right call here. and we heard more of that yesterday. and then the market really did move after bullard spoke us to >> who's yelling it's pretty early in the morning there >> she's the former fed chief. you have forgot? >> no, who's yelling >> yelling she was the pred seser >> who is yelling in the backdrop of steve's shot

>> who's yellin, i thought you knew >> is there somebody i heard somebody talking loudly. >> there are some other news organizations that are broadcasting from here i know it's hard to believe it, we're not the only -- >> they don't have any of the goods you have >> and by the way, speaking of our good, we have raphael bostic coming coming up in about an hour from now, the atlanta fed president >> we're looking forward to all of that, and tell those other people to pipe down. >> hopefully we have a chart of this >> i'll get right on that. electronic arting, how big would this be, what would it cost it's a $35 billion company prior to that move and there is a report from, you know, i didn't see today's issue of the gamer.com but amazon is reportedly making

an offer to acquire. >> this is a rumor we should point out. >> yeah, it's from gamer.com but just check out the stock we didn't mention it yet and that's what the stock is doing. >> there had been talk of electronic art being in play earlier. >> what were we thinking about in what was brian thinking >> that was the rumor, too. they had been linked with the like of apple, disney, comcast >> exactly let's get, oh, that's right. we're going to break the best of squawk in our daily podcast, squawk pod.

shares of electronic arts are rallying following a report that amazon will announce a buyout bid for ea and talk has

accelerated this recent weeks with amazon, apple and disney all mentioned as possible suitors. let's talk about this and other things in media and video games. joining us, sara fisher. amazon's got a lot of money, but this hasn't been exactly a big year for acquisitions. stocks moving, do you think it should be moving it's smoke, is there fire, sara? >> we're hearing that there may and bit of fire. this has been a quiet year for m&a. regulators are still eyeing that microsoft $68 billion acquisition. but you just said $40 billion. the thing i would note about

their, this f this, if you look at that, amazon's going to have to put op lot more cash if they're going to seriously contend with buying it >> everybody loves video games, i guess. and everybody's looking for growth, and, you know, amazon, what aren't they involved with i understand all that, but why video games for amazon at this point? >> because they're get mooting tv the hottest thing is to pair it with games if you take a look at what amazon's programming slate looks like, there's a lot of things with games, the lord of the rings is set to come out in the next few weeks they're trying to focus on centralizing all of their customer experience around

social experience. amazon has long been an e-commerce platform. but there's nothing that really links people to together to talk about the programming with amazon prime video gaming could be the thing that bridges the gap and could bring amazon more mobile right now people obviously buy thing on their phones with the amazon prime app but they're not engaging for hours on the app. they go and check out. gaming could chiange that. >> we booked you yesterday to talk about the news of the day, but this news hadn't been of the day yesterday. what were you going to talk about. >> we've got elon musk, twitter. thursday night football. you've got about 50 seconds to talk about everything else >> all right, let's go amazon debuted its first-ever national football game thursday night football it was a huge success. fans seemed to like it al michaels and kirk had some

great chemistry. but that's kind of a happy headline compared to what's happen happening with elon musk and twitter. a judge said twitter will have to give elon musk a little bit of data, still it's not a huge win for elon musk, overwhelmingly they said his requests were absurdly broad all of this will go down at a court date set for october 17th. >> can you tell me who al doesn't have good chemistry with >> i don't know. you tell me. i thought he did pretty well last night >> that's why he's al michael. you would never tell al it's time to go >> young at heart. he's the man >> he's got great chemistry. >> when was that, 1984 >> appreciate it

>> thank you let's check out the crypto currencies bitcoin still around to,000 af $20,000 after getting to $25,000. up next, jay clayton on the challenges of cryptoegatio ruln. we'll talk about his op ed and much more. "squawk box" will be right back.

sec chair gary gensler has

warned that there is plenty of n non-compliance in crypto joining us to talk about the crypto regulation state is former sec chairman and cnbc contributor jay clayton. in today's op ed, let's talk about this there's been so much frustration on why it's taking so long to get a regulatory framework for crypto currencies. what's going on? >> it's an effort to be just that why is this so hard. and look, there's a number of factors. i think if we understand those factors, we're going to do a better job of moving forward, which we need to do. i'll start at the end. it's the technology underlying the crypto revolution.

it's so compelling, from an efficiency standpoint and a certainty standpoint the problem is, how do we get there? and there's a lot of factors that have driven the difficulty of this. one is pure emotion. and people on both sides of this debate have plenty of evidence there's been plenty of fraud, and, you know, chair gensler writes there's plenty of noncompliance. people on the other hand seat posee th power. raising money is largely an institutional exercise we raise money for growth companies. crypto also tried to raise money. we also largely regulate

domestically crypto is a global innovation. so you have a regulatory overlay, which usually focuses on institution, usually foecuse domestically >> i understand there's complications. let's lay it out from someone on the outside looking in it looks like a giant turf war the sec and ftc can't agree on this there are multiple plans moving through the senate and the house this terms of how you would break these things up. it just seems like it's a big turf war and in the meantime, the crypto maye players are running around and doing the same thing leave quickly and break things and leave regularities to clean up the mess. that seems like where we are >> you are absolutely right on those. one i call the uber effect uber came in and basically said

the taxicab regulation is so arcane, so dated, we're just going to offer a compelling consumer alternative and regulation will bend to that there's a lot of that going on the problem with that is you can't give up the core of our financial regulation >> agree, but that's what's happening in the meantime while this all plays out >> to your second point, we need regulatory there are a lot of banking products how do we go forward is this you'rforward? you're right bring in the efficiency of tokenization, to very safe

space. known leverage move around fact that you have to have backing or regulated banking supervision. it's a pretty easy lift. the presidential working group started on this. they need to go forward. they also need to know how to custody digital assets so people can feel safe in the event we talk about what happens in an insolvency we need to address those issues, bu but that is low-hanging fruit. if we start there, we will have improvement. >> what is the likelihood that something is going to be done on this oh, say this year >> unfortunately, i think it's pretty low there are a lot of other thing people are paying attention to, and you do need coordination, coordination takes time and bandwidth. but like you said, doing legislation, you know, proposals and the like people should get in the room and solve an easily-accessible problem and start with that. any big problem, break it up into chunks and solve it let's start doing that

>> do we need a crypto czar? >> no, that's just going to take another year to get a crypto czar in place. we have a presidential working group. it's a focal point for coordination led by the treasury pretty easy to get people together >> you've heard the concern, and i'm sure you get this. look, you have crypto going from 60,000 to 20,000, and all of this is taking place while everyone sits around and spins, thinking about what they want to do, not having made these rules basically leaves it completely open, and investors will get caught by bad players. in the meantime. >> and on that side, becky, there is still garbage out there. we should clean up the garbage on the one hand, let's provide a path for adoption of this technology across the financial infrastructure i believe there is a race here

on financial infrastructure across the globe their is this is something the u.s. want to win dollar hegemony, let's do that, in terms of offerings with no disclosure, you know, illicit trading, clean it up that's a pretty good perspective on how to go forward >> let's hope somebody's listening, jay, thank you. we'll see you soon >> all right, thanks coming up, president biden's student debt relief plan sparking big debate. jason furman tells us why he is against the plan for one. "squawk box" is coming right back >> i like your reply

what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai.

now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create

good morning global markets in wait and see mode ahead of a major speech from fed chairman j. powell. our special guest their hour, raphael bostic plus, shares of electronic arts popping on a report that amazon is making an offer to acquire the company.

but our david faber will join us with new information you don't want to miss this. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning, and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square, i'm joe kernen along with becky quick andrew's off today u.s. equity futures at this hour have improved a little bit big gains yesterday, but the dow now indicated down about 42. nasdaq down 40, 42 as well the s&p down about 9 many eyes, some eyes, i mean, if a lot of people don't know who the vice president is, they probably don't know who j powell is, so we can't really say all

eyes, can we >> all eyes from our viewers >> we can say many eyes from our viewers. >> most. >> most eyes from our viewers are going to be on j. powell but all eyes is too many because we don't specify it's just our viewers we say all eyes, and that's wrong. that is factually incorrect. >> the only people listening to us are our viewers >> factually incorrect that all ice. ma i have four eyes between me and you. >> four eyes >> treasury yield at this point at 3.06% we showed you shares of electronic arts in the last half hour stock was trading up on a swedish media report, swedish meatball report, media report. but david faber has, okay, your

eyes are on this right? >> i'm on you. my eyes are on you on this. >> we look at each other a lot >> i review good luck have fun, the very well-known swedish gaming report as you know, every morning. i'm always looking for the latest takeover stories there. that's my go-to. i thought it was yours, too, joe. all your eyes are usually on that >> i had seen this i wasn't sure of the veracity of it, so i waited for the stock. what do you think, david that's a big move in the stock for total, no smoke, where there's smoke there's fire you don't think there's any fire >> it just came down a lot i have talked to some people who would actually know if there was something going on, and they say there's nothing going on these are people who would be involved, who in fact were involved when our parent company, joe, was talking to electronic arts. that was real. that was some time ago it didn't advance after a while.

in part because our parent company entertaining this idea of spinning off. that didn't happen ea has been out there in the past, considering what it might do can you imagine amazon might have some interest, but as for this swedish report from this good luck have fun is the name of the source, no. this is not going to, not going to happen today. from what i'm hearing. unless the people who've been involved previously have mo idea >> you know what, david, i'm glad that by the time we mentioned it, we mentioned it, it had already moved i17 points. there's a reason to at least mention why something is moving, but, glad we didn't mention it kind of glad i didn't crack open

today's copy of the swedish, because if i had mentioned it beforehand >> then you might have been responsible. yeah it going up so much. >> kept to to myself anything else >> you watch at 9:00 >> all my eyes >> we'll be covering jackson hole, so i know all your eyes will be on that. >> i was saying that how many total eye, what percentage of ice in the united st eyes in the united states are on jackson hole >> all eyes of the people who hear you >> yes >> how about in our audience, though >> many eyes >> thank you, david. tag teaming, gang up on him a little bit >> thanks, faber

he's used to that. >> how long did -- >> ten years, ten years, baby. >> 14 years, counselor 14 year. >> 17? >> surrounded by people that were less than human >> i do think it's actually 17 years that you and i. >> yeah, we've been together 17 years, how long have you been with -- >> 21. with cnbc 21 years >> no the other guy. >> what other guy? >> quayle. >> 17. >> and him 2008 >> is that 14. you still there, santoli we're sorry. >> good luck have fun.

the market's set up, maybe a plurality of eyes. it was still going to look like a fairly routine pull back i was talking earlier in the week that the bulls wanted the s&p perhaps to pull back to stay above this area right there, 3170 it's still kind of, i think, on balanced footing heading into the report a lot of folks feel like there's a ceiling valuation rise 4300 or something like that. but there has been some really good strong push broad off the june lows that gives it some credence the

this is significant 343, i believe was the high in the early part of the summer almost 340 and the stock market is looking at that as managing to space it down for the moment and not necessarily buckle even as the dollar has gained strength so we're going to get a few more quarter point hikes. maybe a plateau in rates may be in sight take a look at this apple rela relative to consumer staple stocks right over in november apple is more traded in line

with consyumer staples some think apple's move has been too strong, in other words, it's a little bit stretched it has absolutely been one reason that the indeces have stayed well supported, guys. >> we heard from jim yesterday, flat market. what happens to the market after the speech >> i think it's going to be an eye of the beholder type speech, and i think the market mostly want it is to be past. so i think that should be a slight relief. then we're dealing with a lot. he's going to talk about how we're data dependent cpi on the 13th. jobs number next week. so you're not kind of liberated from that week-to-weekday at that dependency. >> thank you mike. joining us now, julie beale,

senior research analyst at cain, anderson & rudnick >> there are limits about what's going to come out of this meeting. if you think about a year ago, pretty much everything j. powell said was wrong we want to understand the level of how aggressive the fed is going to be toward inflation, how serious they're taking this. but the rallies that we've even in the past is kind of like kids running around, and the fed saying, look, we're going to raise rates, i'm serious, i mean it it it's going to be interesting to see. >> and your view on, okay, rhetoric means a lot so what do you think the fed really is prepared to do

do you think they're prepared to follow through on really tough talk do you think they just hope that they get a little bit of ameal rags so they don't have to do as much. >> i think they will be talking tough, and i think they have the potential to be more proactive about rate increases, because i think they were caught pretty flat-footed at the end of last year, and i think they've all recognized, they've all studied stagflation of the 1970s, they're all aware that the risks of that are pretty powerful. what is going to be interesting to see is how the jobs data plays out. if the jobs data remains very strong tha strong, that gives them the ammunition their mandate is inflation and employment if they can hold inflation down while employment stays solid,

that's really what they're trying to do the stock market isn't really trying to be on their list of things they're supposed to be paying attention to. >> they're trying to cause a business slowdown. they've got to be willing to accept higher unemployment, which is really not, it's like gobbledy gook. that's the only thing they've got. the only tool they have. they'll orchestrate higher unemployment >> if employment says really, really strong but gives them the room to raise rates to fight inflation. >> i don't know. don't you think a lot of this comes interest some policy mistakes, fiscal and mauonetaryn the past ten years in >> i agree it has been a caligla level of

decadence. the idea that we're going to be able to unwind all of this with a soft, gentle landing feels a little unrealistic >> we tweet out things we've been through a caligla level decadence of fiscal and monetary policy. that's awesome i think we're going to put that out, julie, can we use that? >> sure. >> all right, julie beal, thank you. >> what about the serious people they have ears >> all ears. >> all ears. >> on jackson hole today i did see that when we come back, former obama economic advisor jason furman blasting president biden's student debt cancellation plan. he's got a lot of concerns with what's happening here. we're going to find out why. he joins us right after this break.

[ "back to life" by soul ii soul ] what if you could change your surroundings with the touch of a finger? now you can. biometric id... inside the innovative, new c-class. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina?

hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq pst. girl. you can do better. yeah... oh. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can! i can do better, too! now you really can do better! switch to the fastest mobile service - xfinity mobile.

now with the best price on two lines of unlimited. just $30 a line. welcome back, everybody former economic advisor to president obama, furman said

pouring a trillion dollars of gasoline on a fire he's currently professor at the harvard kennedy school of government also with us of course our own steve liesman. and jason, i was following you on twitter like i always do. saw this and that was just the first point in a long list of complaints you kind of laid out about this and i though know initially youn favor and excited about the prospect what went wrong? what happened? >> oh, no. i've been critical of student debt loan relief for the last two year, but the plan came in worse than i expected. it was supposed to $250 billion. i thought that was a bad idea, and i expressed that instead it's $500 billion.

at this point in our economy we don't need to be adding $500 billion in deficit spending for a purpose that includes wealthy law student and business school graduates getting tens of thousands of dollars >> i think that's kind of the big confusion out there, who's getting the money, how does it br break down brian sullivan was breaking down some of the pieces and to a large, extent, there will be millions and millions of people where it wipes out their debt completely. there are some who have more than 100,000, and that's really what skews the numbers >> the income limit is $250,000 for a married couple if you're a are 25 years old, au probably making enough money that you can pay off your student loans.

to be clear, our college financing system is broken it has a lot of problems, but doing this type of step is a way of encourage more reliance on debt tin the future, increasing the likelihood that we end up in further problems >> you see i tweeted what you said >> there were about a thousand people that retweeted it, 999 of them were death threats but then there was you being nice to me >> i was being very nice and i, you know, larry summers speaks speaks his mind as well. phil philosophically, is this a bridge too far for you in terms of spending and worrying about inflation. >> or did you think the inflation reduction act, the chips act, any of the trillions that we've already seen spent in the last couple years, some of

that you were for, i guess, because you thought it was paid for? i guess, but then, there's no free lunches if corporations are paying for it, that's not necessarily a great thing. the money could have gone somewhere else so how did you draw the line at, okay, now i don't like all this provela gat spending versus the others >> american rescue plan, it was too large. i said that at the time. i said it less clearly than i should have. if i will to , if i had to do i again i'd be much clearer. the money is going for something i think is useful, climate change and health care >> maybe, maybe. when china and india and everybody else is just, you know, got their pedal to the metal in terms of hydrocarbon, i'm not sure and paid for by tax increases. that's a choice. that's another choice that you're making there.

it's obviously not free. and it probably >> look. >> it doesn't help the fed t doefed. >> i'm not sure all your viewer also agree with me but what better way to raise taxes than to collect the taxes that are already owed. >> we do see a lot about the 87,000 new irs agents. there's not 87,000 billionaires. so there's going to be people other than billionaires that they're going after. do you think everybody's really cheating on their tax, jason >> i don't think everyone is, but there's about $1.5 trillion of cheating every year you had ronald reagan stepped up

enforcement of the tax code. he thought it was important to have low rates and to actually collect the money. that's the tax system you should aspire to, joe >> i'll really trigger people now, lois lerner stepped up the, was that your administration anybody that had the patriot in the name of a company got audited. how did that work? i just hope it's not weaponized. >> i have no idea. because when you sit in the white house, you do not spend anytime talking to the irs about any of that. >> maybe you should have i don't flknow >> steve's got a question, too >> i think you guys are talking about an important macro issue the fiscal side, jason, is kind of getting a pass in this inflation fight right here the act that was just passed had the deficit reduction on the back half. but if you were to say what could the administration do now

reduce n reduce inflation t co, it could reducing deficits right now. >> it's uncertain and things in the economy are pushing every which direction. you need a nimble technocratic authority like the fed but fiscal policy could be making their job easier with more deficit reduction hard to imagine politically what the next round of deficit reduction would look like. >> it would help we had a debate last time on "squawk box" that some fed officials say they saw i brought a chart, about whether productivity in the economy is going up or down my chart is productivity for the worker and shows it going up, and we're doing more gdp right now with fewer workers why is productivity, there's my chart right that's correct jason. can you see it gdp for the worker how is that a productivity crisis right there >> first of all k, can we talk

about gdi for 20 minutes? they're not going to let me. we've never seen that large. it is unchainednged from two ye ago. it's complicated the inflation picture. if they aren't getting more productive productively >> with all the people complaining out there on the student loan issue, it's the people who paid off their student lo student loans or didn't go to college. now can you add in i think anybody who is going to be late to the party on this because according to a story in

"the hill" today, anybody who received a student loan after june 30th is not eligible for this forgiveness for this, you know, granting of student debt going away how is that going to play out? doings does this mean there's going to be pressure to do this again and again? >> i'm worry thadied that there be pressure to do it again and again. and i don't floknow if there ise legal authority to do it, i'm not a lawyer and these types of unfairnesses are felt really strongly in the 1970s, we had a cum couple incidents where we raised benefits, and the notch babies would complain, we did not get our money.

th that's you need something permanent, legislative, not a one-off administrative action. >> we'll always have fresh pond and things together. but were you uncomfortable when you saw that suddenly i was the niece nice guy on twitter, given where the geographic center was m, an who's in president biden's ear at this point? do you know? it does seem there's no progressive idea too insane for joe biden to read a teleprompter and say i'm for this >> he signed the largest deficit reduction bill in a decade pulling in a different direction. >> do you recognize this party

your baparty at this point? >> there's things i agree with, and there's things i don't agree with look, i think working on climate change, working on health care, raising the taxes on the corporations, i don't mind that either i think there were better ways to do it, but i think it was fine i like all of that would i like that see for example more free trade and push for free trade absolutely >> you know larry's a, larry's twitter feed just blows up i wouldn't like to look at his e-mails either, right? larry summers. >> i get some. >> we'll always have fresh pond. ganks, jason. weot to go steve, thank, thanks for laughing the lies-maniacs are out in force.

new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

♪♪ i don't accept this. i can't do this anymore. impossible odds, save the world. i'm done. what do you have for me? a new way to transform our agency. strategy to execution. oh, looks my laces have come undone. a business card? yes, for ey. tech expertise? $2.5 billion invested. impressive. okay, you've convinced me, i'm back. just gonna... get this...

welcome back to "squawk box. rick santelli here with lots of important breaking news. welcome back to "squawk box. i'm at cme hq and the number are rolling in advanced trade balance which of course is the deficit, minus 89.1 billion, that's a much better number than we were looking for. we are looking for a number closer to 98 billion the all-time biggest deficit was in march at minus 125 billion.

retail's up 1.1. pretty much spot on with the expectations personal income, one third of expectations the instead of up .6, we're only up .2. and that, indeed, is a disappointment if we look at the spending side, it was supposed to be up haslf o 1% real spending adjusted for inflation up .2. and if we look at the deflator, and we're getting into all the big numbers now. personal consumption, pen expenditure. it's actually down .1 of 1%. if you look at the year-over-year number, expected to be up 6.4 it is up 6.3 that follows 6.8 and 6.8 was the highest level going back to 1981 that was year-over-year.

if we look month over month that is correct was up .1 and the personal consumption, pen to expenditure, up 4.6% we were expecting it up 4.7. in the rear view mirror, it was up 4.8 the high watermark here is february up 5.3. indeed, we are making progress, but the real issue continues to be, we're coming off of what seems to be peak levels of pricing pressure but we're coming off the levels that just a year ago seemed very unseemly, super high so it's all relative at this point. and the federal reserve of course and chairman powell is going to have a tough time today. look at these news stories it's going to cost like 4500 pounds to heat their places in this winter in europe. and we see bailey over there tightening

that's not going to put any more natural gas or steam in the radiators. it's going to and tough unone, joe, back to you >> caps are great, but we know how supply and demand works. the prices are still going up. they're only paying that much, so who's paying the rest >> taxpayers >> they say this winter could cost some of these uk families, half of these families to be put in energy poverty situation. >> that's with the cap and it still doesn't cover the nut. >> and then in april, they come off again, and they say, the april caps when they come off could boost the cost of heating to 7400 pounds these are all wall trstreet jeru journal numbers, they're unbelievable coming up, raphael bostic. we'll get his take on the pace of rate hikes and a lot of other stuff when "squawk box" comes

right back and her museum of personal computers. and you can find her, and millions of other talented pros, right now on upwork.com with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. let's head out to jackson hole, wyoming once again where steve liesman is joined by yet another

fed newsmaker. steve? >> hey, becky, thanks. pleased to be joined by atlanta fed president raphael bostic, who, it was a tradition, but we broke it with the juniors being off. you are watching the data with interest this is one of the key things you're looking at. the key pc indicator did come down 4.6%. are you ready to stop raising rates? >> that would be a lot for me. this is a sign that the economy's starting to respond. we're trying to get to 2%. we want to make sure our policy moves encl moves closer to the range. >> it's not there now. what is restrictive to you >> for me, it's somewhere in the

3.5 to 3.25 range. and i'm hopeful we can get there by the end of the year i'm hoping we can get to a place where we can get to a redir restrictive posture. and sit there and let the policies work through the economy. >> so you don't seed a need to go further -- explain restrictive. there is a lot of talk about what is the right, you want to get to neutral inflation is 4.6, how can neutral be 2.5%, which is two points lower than that >> this is the complicated thing. >> you tell me >> i just got an e-mail from my research director who said we should stop using the word neutral all together and just focus on making sure our policy does the things that we want it to do, which is to get it to restrictive. we need to bring inflation down. that's the most important thing.

and i think it's also important to remember. this is an unprecedented construct that we have we're in a pandemic economy. and we need to make sure that we don't overreact and sort of misapply our policies based on sort of historical realities that don't exist today we have a demand-supply imbalance. we've got to narrow that, and i'm hopeful that the supply side can do some of the work so that our policies don't have to go as far as they might otherwise. >> you get to the 3.5, 3.25 range, is it your thought that we'd stay there. >> i'd be comfortable staying there and letting the policy play out, letting the economy absorb what we've done and hopefully it will get us to the 2% on its own. >> i think we have a chart, the

fed rate outlook they have the cuts built in after it reaches a peak of 380 do you think the market's wrong to have those built in >> i think that's premature to think about that we have a fair amount of evidence, if you look from a historical perspective, that when the fed does this start and stop and start and stop that that actually exacerbates the situation. and makes it harder for inflation to really be, get to the target so i want to hold, make sure that we're getting to the target word i'm starting to use a lot more now is resolute and purposeful to say once we have an idea and a strategy, we've got to stick to that only let the exceptional outcome drive a move from that in what would it take for, make you feel that hey, we've got inflation under control, when you see the numbers today, rick does a wonderful job laying out those numbers, i could never d

that it's come down, there has been a downward trajectory. are you hopeful we're on the right flak. track >> we're seeing positive signs, inflation is really starting to come down dramatic lally >> is a recession built in i was surprised the bangk of england is forecasting a recession. if you're driving a car you never predict there's going to be an accident but that's what the central bank is essentially doing do you have a recession built into your forecast >> i do not currently. i'm hopeful that our policies will start to bite and i think today's report

>> with consumption being down >> with consumption being down and some of the supply problems, the shipping constraint, are starting to ease as well when that happens, we can see the supply start to give assistance to us and really prevent us from having to think about being in a recessionary posture. >> how canddid the fed get so bn the curve, and how can you fix that process so it doesn't happen again >> i would contend that we're not behind the curve >> but you were, that's why you did 75-basis point rate hikes, right? >> i would just say this there's a lot of uncertainty about where the economy was and where our policy needed to be. and, as we moved forward, we took all the information we had and responded the way we needed to i think right now the question is, how can we get to the point where our policy is going to

help the economy get to where it needs to move to so inflation gets closer to our target. and, you know, we're going to do all that we can. through the pandemic in atlanta, we've changed a lot of our policies and our processes to try to collect information we're going to continue to do that, to make sure that we're, we are seeing trends, even before they show up. >> one of the things that everybody turns to atlanta for, there's t there's two thing, one is the gdp and the other is the wage checker. you guys do the best job with wage inflation what is the concern that you have that the labor supply shortage is going to create more problem. >> the labor supply is create acreatein a headwind businesses are trying to put into place technological responses so that will not be a

longer term issue. when they think about wage increases, they are approaching this as a response to what's happened in the past and not resetting this as a new normal that will continue moving forward. so i'm hopeful that as we move forward through this the wait sign will sort of tee decrease >> and i know that you like that talk about fiscal policy, which is a fed favorite thing to talk about. >> of course >> people don't understand my economic jokes that said, could you be getting more support from the fiscal side when i learned economics, there were two parts, the monetary side and the fiscal side if the government spent less there would be less impetus for demand into the economy. what do you think would be helpful to get from the fiscal side >> the fiscal side has helped us through the pandemic right from the outsitet in terms of

preventing the economy from getting to a much worse place than it would have been otherwise. now it's in long-term investments in infrastructure. they have to weigh a whole number of conversatiosiderationw don't have to. >> apologies to the control room i didn't ask you the reqquestio 50 or 75 >> i'm taossing the coin. i'm leaning a little more toward 50, but we have other data coming in, a jobs report, another inflation report that's going to come n so i'm going to aggregate all that up. >> does it matter if it's 50 or 75 >> ultimately it will, because history matters. it does shape how people respond to it. for me, the goal is real le just j to get to that more stable

stance and make sure our policies are not introducing more uncertainty into the economy that will make it more difficult. >> it's a pleasure to renew and continue the tradition of interviewing you hire at jackson hole >> it's a pleasure to be here steve and i look forward to next time >> joe, ck tbao you at headquarters >> coming up, jim cramer will be live from the new york stock exchange when we return. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire let's get down to the new york stock exchange, check in

with jim cramer. jim, i've got so many mixed emotions that i'm feeling about the markets this week. we had some good up days including yesterday. overall we're down for the week. and we've heard some weakness from some of the tech names, fed chairman j. powell about to speak, too all these things as we get into a friday in august i have no idea how things are going to react after this. >> well, i think you're absolutely right one thing i would go a step further on is that i, when i speak to ceos after i interview them, the vast majority say the following, which is we have to worry about the future, not now, but the future, because everyone's so gloomy so if everyone's gloomy t, it i going to hurt us so chairman powell and the endless parade of people who come on air have put a chill in this country so it's made it that there will be a slow down

simply because they made it, and they made it by making people more concerned than they would be otherwise so maybe that's what causes people to slow down hiring maybe that puts a top on nation, but make no mistake about it the talking and the endless discussion of it's nobody a bad quarter. i say why, they say, did you not listen to what these fed governors and presidents are saying they're telling you it's going

to be bad, we're slowing down our hiring and our customers are slowing down their buying. so if they want to accomplish the creation of gloom, they've done it, and they should declare victory today. >> maybe that's the way to do it, jim. then they don't have to tighten, it's already tightened >> i think that you and i would agree that that's true but i think you and i are also optimists by our nature, joe so it's hard to deal with people who talk the economy down and make us feel like that things were very bad, worse than they really are >> i've had like a total change of heart i don't know, jim. you know, the whole idea of, you know, we've gotten ourselves into this mess with inflation, so we've got to like screw the economy, it's like the whole -- that's why i'm not sure about the whole due an mal mandate i go back and forth, jim we're trying to create a great place for everyone, where

everyone can earn a good living and support their family and get a job. but inflation undercuts that chairman powell, i do not envy what he's trying to do >> i think that's right. i would rather have him do it with gloom than with racheting up the rates and they're accomplishing the gloom. they come on and you say, darn it, i'm not going to have a good year this year maybe that's their way to do it rather than taking the rates to 6. i would rather have it be, i want to on my own not fire 3,000 people >> good point, jim, thank you. an exciting 9:00 coming up when we come back, we'll continue the countdown to fed chairman jim powell's jackson hole speech.

you're watching "squawk box," this is cnbc

welcome back to "squawk

box. futures right now are up jim paulson joins us, chief investment strategies at the loophole i know you watch occasionally, i don't want to put words in your mouth, since june 16th i've gone up against a lot of people who say we have to go back to new lows i was feeling good at about 4200 on the s&p now i'm wondering again whether all these negative fundamentals finally rear their ugly head in terms of earnings recessions and lower multiples as aso that everybody is proven right. are we going to new lows, below 3600 >> i don't know, joe, but i think the lows are real. that's my guess. i really like the tape action here i'm not a technician or anything jim during fed weeks, and this is a fed week, the market struggles. i think it's encouraging, before powell's speech, the markets

came roaring back, holding its own. there are some good things going on, i think, joe everyone seems to think that the only thing standing between them and runaway inflation is the fed and what they may do i don't think that's the case. i really think that lower inflation is already baked in because of policy tightening that's occurred over the last year we've had severe slowdown in monetary policy, a slowdown in fiscal stimulus, rise in the dollar, rise in bond yields even long before the fed started fight tightening, and that stuff has had a one year lag that's going to affect inflation well into spring, march. i don't think the fed has to do anything the base rate will probably moderate back to its range by next march also, i'm not sure the fed is going to be nearly as aggressive

as they're talking about in terms of raising rates and there are some good things the bond market has been -- the ten-year yield has been around 3%, joe, for the past four months despite bad inflation numbers, despite hawkish talk from the fed it seems very comfortable at that level >> right >> so it's done tightening the break-even rate fell 2.5%, collapsing that's well within the rate of the fed's target which i think is a very good sign overall. we talk about earnings estimates, it collapsed in july, but in august, economic growth, economic supplies index has picked up, it's minus 20 this morning. it's a little better economic forecast i think we're going to have very slow growth, 1.5% real gdp or something in the coming year

if rates have stopped going up, i don't know, i think the earnings are going to hang in there and the stock market has a lot of room. >> i knew i could count on you to make sense. people aren't talking about the dollar, are they if we had third world hyperinflation, why don't we have zimbabwe dollars? we don't, we have the strongest currency in the world. earlier in the week, the other thing that informed my most recent flip-flop was that the fed assumes that the economy is unstable, and they need to stabilize it the economy self-corrects sometime, it may self-correct in terms of inflation, they may not need these guys microtuning. >> i agree the think the policies have been put in place to solve this inflation problem. a lot of times people talk about the pessimism, jim cramer just

talked about that. >> "the new york times" just posted a story that moderna is suing pfizer, alleging their covid vaccine copied its groundbreaking technologies. >> let the wars begin. someone said let the yacht wars begin. jim, thanks, sorry to cut you off, that was great stuff. >> it was. bye, everybody time for "squawk on the street." join us on monday. bye. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street, i'm david faber with jim cramer we're live from the new york stock exchange carl has the morning off let's give you a look at futures as we get ready on this jackson hole friday to begin trading in 30 minutes our roadmap, as you might expect, starts with the fed watch, we're reading the tea leaves with chairman powell in