>> that's good enough for me. >> dan? >> you got yourself in trouble. get your pilots together here. >> okay. very interesting. thank you very much for watching "fast money" here nit. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. mad money starts now. >> hey, i am jim cramer. my job is to not just entertain but educate and teach. call me at [indiscernible] or tweet via jim cramer.

every year when the head honcho's go to jackson hole for some r&r and togetherness, they relax. this time jay powell made it clear that he will slay inflation by any means necessary . that includes keeping rates higher for longer. hated it. with everything collapsing, today we somewhat rebounded from our lows. nasdaq losing 1.02%. the average action spent most of the day rallying. i think, though, it is dawning on people that we actually want this tougher and incarnation of jay powell. we are all sick of inflation. we want it stopped and maybe we are willing at last to take some pain to make it happen.

i think powell's speech was a brilliant move. it was the equivalent of hitting with a quarter-point rate. except he didn't have to do anything other than open his mouth. take mortgage rates. they jumped almost 6% today because of his speech. the wealth effect from lower stock prices gives you decants and slows the economy. powell needs to do that. he's trying to make people do a little fear of spending. he wants you to hunker down and take stock of whether you need anything else. his goal is to be stern and be tough with you about what he will do if we keep spending like crazy, both businesses and people. that is the quickest way to cool down and overheated economy. he is in a tough spot. employment is so high but he's got to do something. those are all good things but let's take this forceful powell at his word point thinks he basically had on friday what i call of volker moment.

we are no where we were in the 80s but inflation is bad enough that powell has to act decisively unless things get a lot worse. so, what exactly does paul want to see? first, we know what is not enough grid commodity inflation. that is not going to cut it anymore. he just does not think that matters. the vast majority of commodities have already peaked. oil, which had fallen from $120 to the high 80s, okay, it's starting to bounce back. okay, but i think this current level since the mid-90s is the high-end of oils range. we have 8% of world it represents only about 4% of the s&p 500. aluminum, lumber are all down for the year. these commodities can bounce back, but that seems unlikely

with a slowing economy and don't forget, russia is letting the world with oil to pay for its war against ukraine, so that will serve as a lid around these levels. here's what i think powell is really after, and as i said, it's a tough spot. from the fed's perspective, the most important thing is to prevent wage price spiral, a vicious cycle for raging wages lead to rising prices which in turn leads to rising wages again and so on. to do that, powell has to stop wages from growing. specifically, he needs to see a peak in wage growth and a peek in hiring before he'll stop tightening. it might get enough to get several months of flat wages. that might influence them, and while the unemployment rate is all-important, powell does want to see it go from 3.5 percent to over 4% or even higher. he wants people to have a little fear, fear of just quitting and maybe not been able to get a job. the real issue here is that while powell may have to scare us to spend less, he's got a worse problem that he can't do

anything about, that's the federal government.the feds have pumped tens of billions of dollars into the economy at just the wrong time. many of the problems the government wants to solve require highly skilled workers. good luck finding engineers for the private sector after having fun working for the government. he let too much growth happen, now he has to throw us into a recession to slow things down. that just angered me. that's just wrong. it's nonsense. much of this inflation is caused by shortages related to russia's invasion of the ukraine. some of it is lingering covid hangover. there are certainly freight problems and a lot of problems with china bringing in stuff and now congress just spent a fortune on hiring people right when we've already got major wage inflation. i see a major wage but up from both the

inflation reduction act in both the chips and science act which are coming on top of the big partisan infrastructure bill that passed last year. there is some good stuff in these bills, but the timing is terrible. if only we would have a massive housing bill to lower rent which is what is really needed in addition to trying to curb wage inflation. 3 1/2% unemployment will obviously add fuel to the fire and we may need better infrastructure and more domestic security boundaries and internal [indiscernible] that is what is going to happen on friday. that's what he said. in this backdrop, what can powell do? he has two choices. dump longer-term bonds to raise

mortgage rates or boost the short termsfunds rate or both. once the fed does that, many people curtail their spending plans and businesses will postpone their expansion plans. any company that needs financing will have a hard time finding it and businesses will stop competing with each other for workers. that will and the job pop and the job pop is behind so much inflation. powell maybe catching another lucky break.when i ask ceos in silicon valley if they have a hard time getting employees, they no longer indicate that it is difficult. nobody wants to buy the stocks of these companies. you can do an ipo here. same thing with a spouse. of course there are tons of other companies that are in trouble, too. most of the internet companies.

people that allowed people to get loans that maybe shouldn't have. until friday i was not sure if powell have the guts to pressure the economy with relentless rate hikes but simply by saying that he won't stop, as he did friday, powell may have [indiscernible] every bank that fears making bad loans, especially to businesses that can't help the public markers, meaning pretty much all financial institutions worried about loans. what does that mean for stocks? if you have stocks and companies with great balance sheets that have plenty of cash, i'm not worried about you. companies with high dividends that give you big yields, you will do well, but if you on the stocks of companies that are losing money, powell's message to you is start selling now before he closes the door on their funding entirely.

let's go to eric in tennessee. >> thanks for taking my call. question in regard to cbr grou , ticker cbr e. as you know they provide a wide range of services that revolves around real estate. the company doesn't on the real estate but provide services to those who do. they make their money out of rental revenues. this model allows the company to take an asset line approach and in high profit margins of the leverage. they currently have a pe of 14 1/2. >> i think the stock is inexpensive. i think people fear that there will be less turnover. others fear there will be as many business's that stay in the commercial market, frankly,

because of this problem with work at home and it is the work- at-home problem that has made these guys stocks so difficult, even if that may be wrong that it's the case. if you own stocks and companies that are losing money, maybe you've got to start selling before he closes the door on their funding entirely but if you've got good balance sheets, you should do just fine as he tightens and tightens. what did wall street dislike about last quarter and after friday's be coach from powell. anil seem to get snowflakes quarter all run wrong. why? i will reveal what i think is that company's secret sauce and i like it, so stay with cramer.

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>> spunk delivered a nice top and bottom for your forecast. it was not such a hot line item in their outlook. after the cloud revenue came out a little

light in the quarter. in response the stock tumbled last thursday. i don't know, seems responsive to me. when they took down their annual recurring revenue outlook that suggests maybe some sort of speedbump. let's check in with the president of spunk. mr. steele, welcome back to bad money. >> thanks, jim. great to be here. look, these days are tricky because let's say we were talking with salesforce right now. they had kind of a similar thing. there was some come customers that didn't want to -- they elongated.everybody in your business seems to affect the actual speed bump in different ways. can you tell me what's really going on? if it's business as usual, i want to know and i want to buy. >> great question. we were very pleased with our top and bottom line beads. for we did see some slowdown

was with critical quad migrations. customers are going to go to the cloud. we saw some delays in those projects. >> at the same time, i know you make more money if it's on prime. you have to pay somebody if it's on the cloud. does it pay to move quickly to the club? i know your predecessor wanted you to do that. he was always talking about it but i wonder whether you don't make a lot of money not in the cloud. >> we are really happy with the gross margins that we deliver in the cloud and we think for the long-term benefit of the customer there are lots of capabilities we can continue to deliver and add great value to their environment so we think that migration is important. we just saw those customers with migrations coming up. they slow down a little bit. >> all right you visited 100 customers and hundred days. can you give us a sense whether people are top downward by the fed, by the world, just some sort of andouille and everybody

else is saying i don't want to make a move. the other guys are making moves. >> it is really interesting. last quarter was my first full quarter with. i did 100 customer meetings in my first full day. i think splunk is critical. we are underlying their application environment where we are making their applications much more resilient. what we were faced with is customers who have the opportunity to make those complex cloud migrations. i don't think we will see a long-term down cycle. i just think we saw some slowdown. >> you've seen a couple tough quarters. walmart.

walmart wants to have as much security and as much data analytics has possible. the company like that needs -- it can't afford to slow down and spend during a tougher time for the country. >> no, and i think the one thing that is really clear is that security is very resilient in this particular time. we are in a pretty turbulent geopolitical time but i think there is a lot of concern on behalf of security leaders that they need to ensure that they are investing to keep their in customers well protected.>> you had a great career. have you been able to go and touch people who have been at your previous outfit and say listen, know anything about splunk? >> i have not been recruiting mild colleagues but we are recruiting amazing people to be splunk here . >> should we expect that maybe

annual recurring revenue can pick up her is that just not the key metric? >> any recurring revenue will converge for us and as you saw in our top line, we had nice growth at 32% and we feel very good about this balanced approach that i basically put in place when i got here. we believe we can deliver great long-term durable growth while increasing operating margins and cash flow and even in my first quarter, i felt good that we saw some results. we asked for guidance on the bottom line and we think there is more opportunity there so we feel really good about that balance. >> so, who are you seeing insecurity that you could possibly partner with her you actually are up against because i think security is probably the best area of the country to be in for anyone in tech knowledge he. >> could not agree with you more. splunk is really at the heart of security operations and so

all of the vendors that you're familiar with that you talk to all the time, we basically adjust all of that rich information to our environment to help make better decision .so whether it is palo alto crowd striker any of the other amazing security companies out there, we basically leverage that information to drive better outcomes for security leaders. >> i think it sounds terrific. it is a tough time for people in your business, but the business is not going away. unfortunate lee, security businesses are getting better and better as you know, because you taught me that. mild money is back after the break. >> coming up, what do the rest of us do fall the fed tries to slay a dragon called inflation. cramer breathes fire off the charts. next

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>> how do we get a read on this tricky market know that the federal reserve has lowered the boom on us again? they said friday they will raise the inflation as many times as it takes until the beast of inflation is finally slain. we thought inflation would be endless and we thought the fed would have to crash the economy in order to beat it. since then we've gotten some real positives on inflation. [indiscernible] as i told you last week, some investors would get ahead of themselves assuming the fed would start going easy on us even though wage inflation remains very high.

now that the fed has given us a reality check, it is time to recalibrate. we hear a lot of commentators talking about how the chartist charge this year looking like a rerun of 2000 10 2008. two terrible years for the market. i don't buy those analogies. in 2001, the market got pulverized by september 11th. and 2008 we got hit with an even brothers collapse. i don't see anything remotely similar looking here. sure, powell has got to keep tightening, we all agree and that will slow down the economy and could cause the next recession. that is not remotely similar to the financial crisis, though. right now, we are looking at a garden-variety rate hike. it's not great, but looking at how low unemployment is right now, it's not that bad either. i've lived through many of

these and there's always a way to make money. you just have to know where to look for. this year is not a remake of 2001 or 2008. how about a better analogy? we do that by going off the charts what again with larry williams, who has been at this game since i was a teenager. larry has written more than a dozen books and traded dozens of his proprietary indicators. this is his site. i really trade .com. this man's record is awesome. it's stunning. [indiscernible] he called the last bottom earlier this summer when everybody was convinced the price of oil was heading to 150. he knew otherwise. can we find a historical analog for the current market? this guy is the master at

looking of the history of the market spotting patterns or cycles that tend to repeat themselves. we believe in sports, we believe in arm, we believe in this. this time he's headed out to find the best fit for the last 250 days as market action looking for analogs from 1990 forward using timing solution for software using the years since 1990. in short, looking for historical analogs, almost 60% of the time, they failed to correctly forecast the markets action in the following years. sometimes, though, they work like a charm. for example, take a look at the daily chart of the dow jones industrial average and 28 teen, dark line. turns out the year 2000 was

[indiscernible] these are good overlaps. if you extrapolate from there and take your cue from 2001 to 2019, you picked up some important turning points. take a look at this one. next you can see it catches a lot of them. next up, check out the action in 2021 covid hit which is in black compared to red of 2009. you can see the correlation was incredibly powerful. there was a 77% fit. makes sense. both years saw the market collapse in the first quarter then rebound nicely for the rest of the year. let's say you extrapolated from their unused 2010 is the forecast for 2021. take a gander. again, surprisingly close in

terms of nailing important turning points in the overall trajectory is pretty close, too, isn't it? when this kind of methodology works, it really works. williams says the closest analogy for 2021 was actually 2013. take a look at last year's is in black. 2013 is in red.that's a 95% fi . so, if we push that forward, could this your turn out to look like 2014? when you look at the comparison, the overall trajectory was much more positive in 2014 but there is also some real overlap in terms of important highs and lows. after running in and july the market took a big hit. in 2014, not unlike what happened last week, then it took off again through the end of the year with the exception of that short, sharp pullback in

october that we are going to have to be ready for. you know that's coming, and you know what this was? this was the ebola scare. hopefully were not going to have another ebola scare, but that is what caused that big decline. if williams is right then we can be taking our cue from 2014 here. that is surprisingly positive, much better than 2001 or 2008 analogies that we hear constantly. in other words i look at this and think this makes much more sense in 2001 and 2008. if so, then we like where we are. i think we are in a good level to buy. however, if you want an even better fit for the action, get this. take a look at the dow's recent performances in blackwell the 962 performances in red. can you believe this? might be joined at the hip. we can have a very nice run in november and december after some sideways action and again, that turbulence that we are so

worried about in october. finally, if you want to see something really eerie, i want you to suspend your animation for a second.i want you to check out this one. the dow's recent action is in black, while its action in 1891 is in red. once again, the closest historical parallel williams can find suggest we have a pretty good time at the end of the year. i know for some of you it is hocus-pocus. for me, i think it's gospel. i love it so much because the guy has been so right, larry williams. bottom line historical comparisons can be hit or miss but when you look at 2022, charts by larry williams suggest things are looking good. don't forget, a little bit of october turbulence, but we will to buy.

kyle and illinois. >> jim, help me out with khol's. there right at about 28 bucks and 37 before the earnings i thought i was fine and then it just looked like they pulled a walmart and discounted everything down. i already hold tjx which is been terrific and i got a dividend right around the corner. number one, is it safe? number two, what do you recommend at these prices? >> i don't trust khol's. i don't think they had a good quarter. they have inventory galore. they say stand by the dividend . i don't like that point i think it could go back to above 30, and above 30, sir, i have to say i would cut back my position. let's go to matt and wisconsin. >> jim, thanks for having me on. the talk about abby, it's come down big since april but at the

same time they've been generating cash flow. i think they could use that cash to make another acquisition but i don't think it's a great time to on that stock. >> jeff marx and i, we both believe in it. it's got a 4% yield. were not that worried about the patent cliff. they have a lot of cash and i think you stick with abbvie . when you look at the years of closest fit, 2022, the legendary larry williams suggest that even after what we went through last week the rest of the year is looking pretty good except for a little bit of an october program. he would be a buyer right now, not a seller. next, my take on snowflake.

then i think it's time to have a serious conversation about the impact of working from home on corporate america. tonight, all your calls, the lightning round. stay with cramer.

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we are now in the midst of off cycle earnings season. last week we heard from a handful of outfits and their reactions were wildly divergent. some disappointed and some saw

their stocks obliterated. [indiscernible] the best was snowflake. up based data analytics company that sent its stock up 23% the next day and even rallied on friday when the nasdaq hundred nearly 4%. that says something. most of it is because almost nobody saw it coming. wall street was incredibly bearish on this one. this was an amazing darling going in. two separate analysts downgraded it early this month, though, while another initiated a cell. how did the analysts get it so wrong? you know what? it's not easy to understand because of such a complicated business but snowflake has an

unusual business model for cloud software company and that has made this an extremely divisive stock. most of these cloud plays have what is known as a subscription service model. software service is a relatively new thing. in the old days, nearly all software companies depended on one purchase on premise. this cloud was really pioneered by salesforce. salesforce.com really created the cloud to some degree. snowflake is different, though. they don't sell their customers a flat subscription. they have a consumption-based model. they charge their clients based on the amount of computing power and storage they use in a given time period. there is nothing counter and to of about snowflake's business model. it is fairly new to the

software space. their business model is much better for the customers, but what about the shareholders? the beauty of most stocks is the subscription-based model. investors crave these kind of predictability. consumption-based pricing has given them a lot more upside. for the first quarter's they had tripled digit revenue growth every time. this was the fastest growing company in the software space that i've ever seen. why? customers like the product and find it useful. with a subscription model, they make the same amount of money either way, no matter how much is used. so, why were analysts so word? simple. the pricing model gives them more upside in good times but

they were concerned, what about the bad times we are having? snowflake was founded in 2012. they never had to deal with the treatise recession. what if the company slows down and in order to save some money they cut back. the assumption here was that snowflake would be a lot more volatile than cloud companies. i don't blame anyone for thinking this but it seems self evident. when you look at the downgrades and pricing cuts from early this month they were all worried about declining usage rates as the economy heads into a recession. the story they told was generally less positive than a few months before. it did not help that the stock is always been very expensive but then snowflake reported last night and the results have always been better than expected. i know, i was shocked. wall street was widely expecting it to be negative. they went from a loss to positive and gave robust guidance for the current quarter and even raised the

forecast. forget doing worse. snowflake is obviously in better shape to do incredibly here. everybody was worried about the base pricing model. is an asset, not a liability because it helps when lots of new business even when the economy is slowing. as he put it, they can sign a contract with us, but then they can throttle up or down how much they want to use. you can't do that in a service model. you're going to pay no matter what, whether your using it or not so this gives customers a lot more confidence to contract with us knowing they can throttle up and down. prices analyst to downgraded didn't get that. that is so key. you can decide to use more or less at a time when so many

cloud software companies are wringing their hands about more measured customer by or elongated sales sect does remember, i give us definitions last week. snowflake is winning lots of business because their model is low commitment. new customers typically start small and take about nine months to really start to consume. you can sign up, try it and then if you like it, you scale up. if you don't like it, you stop using it and there is no problem. a lot of new customers have an on-demand model so they're not on the hook for anything if they don't want to use it. that's fantastic. after the conference call [indiscernible] came on our show and made such a compelling case. >> i think the model actually works better in a down market where people are having headwinds and trepidations and not knowing which way the world is going to go. you like the elasticity, being able throttle back, throttle u . you know, when you have the confidence.

in a traditional subscription model, you don't have that luxury. ever since the quarter the stocks soared and the analysts have turned a lot more positive. it is down nearly 6%, but still up huge sense last wednesday. i think snowflake's business model is much more resilient in a downturn. there are in a time when customers are struggling for new business. unfortunately, though, the stock is still very expensive. we have a lot of companies we like that are selling at [indiscernible] it keeps slamming us with aggressive rate hikes. if powell goes full on, really nothing gets sold. a severe recession ruins

everybody's model. the bottom one, snowflake was attractive last week because the stock got too beaten-down going into the quarter. if you like it, i think you should wait for the next analyst freak out because when they do, they dropped the stock down and they're going to give you a better entry point then you have right now after this massive run. back after the break. >> coming up, cramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit. it's a fast by lightning round next

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it's time. are you ready? >> great to hear from you. longtime fan of the show. investment club member. [indiscernible] we wish the stock would come down. it doesn't want to come down at all but it is well-run. terrific. dina and nebraska. >> hi jim, it's great to talk to you. what is your take on kelly services? >> very well run company. it's easy to get a job. you never know. i would not acquire it right

here though. let's go to alan. alan? >> i've been hearing a lot of talk about this you're being clean energy all of a sudden, worldwide i'm hearing and that it's needed to supplement her clean energy goal. president 20% of u.s. electricity is from nuclear that we get from russia. seems to me like were going to need some american uranium. >> this is very -- this group is too red-hot that it is too sizzling for me so i'm going to take a pass. i know the group is up 7% just today. that is too dangerous for me. i'm going to have to say no for now. at in pennsylvania. >> i love the poconos.

what is happening? i invested some mad money last year in a biotech company. wanted your thoughts on maryland pharmaceuticals. >> i'm afraid they are losing too much money for me to recommend and you know, i feel so bad about that because when they are up like that and they are doing some great work in that particular disease threatening the liver i want to recommend it but i'm afraid to because it had such a big move. >> hey, jim, inspired by your december 1st mad money interview , i bought a biotech stock that has since gone up or than 125% due largely to positive phase three drug trial results. considering that dramatic increase in value would you say dry, sell, or hold? >> we were believers.

now, it does not fit my thesis about what works here, but we found ourselves very compelled and thought that it was an illness and if they could do it it would be great. speculative situation. time for one more. chris and new jersey. >> mr. cramer. we are all over penn state. what's up? i appreciate all your input.i was wondering what you thought of [indiscernible] >> i think matthew prince is fantastic. the stock is low because they are making very little money. i'm willing to bet with prince. i think that's one you could buy and put away. he does a good job. carrot in colorado. >> hey jim. we are huge fans. let us know what you think about pulling the plug on

[indiscernible] >> he's got to get something that is very elusive, called earnings and if he gets them, the stock could still go higher and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. >> working from home or home free from working. cramer works on a key issue cramer works on a key issue among the labor force, next. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade

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we need to address the persistence of remote work. i spend a lot of time talking to young people and their frequently given the option to work at home and it's frequently a perk of the job.i get why this happens and i get what people like it for.

there are reasons we go to work in person, collaborations, training, holding ourselves accountable and productivity. on those scores, working from home is about a one out of attend. i know it's a 10 out of 10 on personal convenience. that's not what they're paying people for. it would be one thing if you could demonstrate a positive return on investment from staying home but there are specific cases for remote makes sense. if you could get that retreat from the office and have all those commercial buildings turn into rentals, i could justify going remote from the point of view of the economy but i don't think that's what is happening here. in reality, we have 4% unemployment which means there is not the power or leverage to stop this. they know remote work is not best for business but they don't have a choice. they simply want to attract employees. even though i talked to more ceos than anybody else they almost universally scorned behind the desk in the bar.

can't stand it. they can't keep their people if other firms offer a day or two of extra time away from the office. who doesn't want a three day weekend? i think people got a taste of freedom and as long as we have a tight labor market, they aren't coming back in person. some of you probably think i'm a fossil who simply demands physical presence as a way to demonstrate authority but man, there are some things that are much harder. as someone who has managed hundreds of people in my life i watch in total dismay is this work from home continues even though there is no more public health justification. call me old-fashioned but i think there should be in place for you work together with your colleagues and clap and get to know them. i worked at goldman sachs in the 80s. everyone in private wealth management from around the

country got to meet each other. we knew if we all got together we could learn from each other and it had a lot of use those. i'll tell you it made us much better at our jobs. i think we need to have a more serious discussion in this country about the pros and cons of remote work. i know businesses currently don't have much of a choice. for most, if not all, the job gets done best at the office. with the pandemic wave we need to acknowledge that remote work is a lot more efficient. don't kid yourselves. it is so much more expensive to train someone remotely plus they can close offices and save more money. don't believe the work from home height. it is not more efficient although from the perspective of someone who works for a living, it's

obviously great to have a lot of leverage. i will tell you one thing for certain, workers have not had an upper hand like this for as long as i can remember. good for them. jimmy hoffa is dancing in his unmarked grade.for you on mad money. i am gym kramer. the news starts now with shepard smith. a weekend of violence and in cities across america. this is the news on cnbc. in detroit a man kills three people that he shoots at random. and in phoenix two people killed and two officers hurt and in oregon another shooting at another supermarket and what we are learning and how communities respond. the justice department with the new file on documents taken and how many could be