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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 31, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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index level. >> i wonder if this higher for longer concept that we talked about today starts to take traction, because i could impact things like -- we don't know yet. >> for sure. although we will say we've been in that range for a long time in the early to mid 2000, and we didn't think of it as onerous. >> that's right. thank you so much. fast oney begins right now. >> finishing august on a four day losing streak. the s&p down, the dow are down around 7.5%. the nasdaq nearly 10%. do investors need to get ready for a long september? plus, i'm going to say it anyway -- as for the memories. bed bath and beyond cratering more than 20% is a retailer after store closures and a products overhaul, is it now game over for this writer
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rebellions talk? potential tax trouble for it coin, and we will strike up a conversation with this ceo of bolero. i melissa lee, and this is fast money life. and we start off with another rough month of market. the s&p closing out with its fourth straight day of losses. the dow and nasdaq, also negative for the month. only four stocks managed to eke out games in august. the yield in the two-year treasury briefly rose over 2.5% for the first time since november 2000 seven, nearly 15 years ago. it was only a year ago that the rate was -- if this -- .13. that's a move over 330 basis points in just over 12 months. the 10 year yield has climbed about 1.2% for 3.198% now. so what are these moves telling us about what to ask from the broader market this fall? what
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would you say? >> boy, i tell you what, if you pronounce that intro incorrectly, it was good to be like a betty hill skit. i will let you alone on that one, but what are they saying? inflation is the problem, and the market is finally figuring that out. i know we mentioned robert frost last week while we were absent, but i will mention my angelou today. when a person tells you with aro shows you who they are, believe them the first time. and that's the feds. they ventured to tell us for months now, inflation is a problem. equities are probably going to go lower, collateral damage. until recently, the market didn't believe them. the market is beginning to believe them now. >> i don't want to be cavalier about this, but i think everyone on this desk probably felt that the rally was over ended, and probably that we should back up a little bit in the overall market. maybe we get a little reprieve out of cpi. if we get the reprieve, then
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maybe you can rally. but the problem now is everyone is on the other side of the boat. i think we're going to have a weak september, a week october, and then rally after the election into year end. markets love gridlock. now if there is a regime change in congress, you do have the ability to have the market rally. if there's not, then as we continue the slide into year and. >> obviously, september is a big month. we have another interesting dynamic, with european recession fears, potentially importing some of that here to the united states. where do you stand on where these bond moves are telling us? >> well, i think when you look at the bond yields, they've actually doubled in the last month. in august alone, you went from 70 bits or so to horse the 160. there cpi has now moved ahead of the u.s..
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i'm not sure that ignominious title anything somebody wants, but the deal is that european inflation continues to hold here. like us, it's up to 4.3%, and chose the same labor dynamics. back to the stock market, and really what we should be doing with higher rate is that we should be marking down the multiple we should be paying for stock. remember when tino is out there and there was no alternative ? is is why you owns stock. the fed was intentionally pushing them out to risk. now they are doing the opposite of that. just back to an apple, trading about 10 turns, to be eight to 10 turns past its ten-year forward pe multiple of about 16. at about 25, 20 six, wherever you are. microsoft, probably five turns. it comes down to valuations, i think. and a case where, the fed rhetoric tells you, you're
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going how to evaluate stocks in an environment were rate are higher than normal. meanwhile, we haven't even heard from the demands of a lot of these coming out in the second order. companies will be about 85% of the time and 65% on the bottom line, and i was a good quarter. >> we are already getting some. we heard from hewlett packard last night, and we heard from c8 this morning. this is sort of the hardware part, but they talked about enterprise spending and there businesses being cautious. the fact they took on their guidance for this current quarter about 40 days after they reported earnings and gave guidance suggests, jeff, that things are still rapidly changing. loretta messer said the probability of recession is higher now in the next year or two years or so. i don't know. what do you make all of this? that seemed to be what the 10 year yield is telling us right
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now. >> we been talking about this transition in the market from years of transition to properly serve a bear market that is ultimately ets driven. some of those reports that you are mentioning right now are forecasting that potential deceleration. which i think is a problem and is particularly a problem because of this interest-rate discussion we are having. we certainly have a parade of officials come out and really pound the table and what's going to happen. these are not going to expand tim's point. you have leading economic indicators that are highly correlated, all pointing lower. everything says leading economic indicators of when to continue lower, so therefore so are earnings. i think we have this chart ready, but look at the correlation between the two year treasury, which you mentioned, and the p/e ratios. and like you said, it's at the highest point since 2007, so guy said the market hasn't
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really believe the fed. certainly true of the equity markets, not necessarily true for the bond market as they continue to press higher. back in 2007, the pe was 14 times. now you're talking about cpi's over 8%. if you see that gap closed, which i think you will, i think that is the next difficulty for the market here. >> we talked you mr. recession for quite some time, and yet you are the one who is forecasting a rally. but the backdrop is still a recession. be back slower growth, margin aside, decreasing, definitely a recession. it just depends on how deep the recession is going to be. we have garden-variety recession, cello recession, and he recession is bad. we will see what happens, but yes, i'm on the recession camp. >> was interesting as were
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talking about what the fed is going to do, when they are going to hike. we haven't even called qt, which really starts to ramp this week and the unknown impact that will have on rate in the environment. >> and on risk assets, because again, they were buying stuff when we were critical of them that didn't need to be bought, and they are adding to that. so i think qt should be feared, but i think the next few months it will be eased in. i don't think this is where you're going to feel the pain. i would .2, again, where if it's just contained on our shores and him of our global dynamics are not going to come back because global vision is dead, and i think it is, i think you are wrong. i think the european growth cycle really is in a very different place. back to positioning for market to september, it is a story market, and you know all about september. if you look at the nasdaq, it's
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only done a month. and on average, start about six tenths of a month on that percent. it's now 5.7% in 2001, '20, and obviously we've had some very dark septembers. positioning is almost there for that. if you look at short positions in the triple use, i think they peaked somewhere in the third week of august, suggest before jackson hole, and are getting back near there. i talk about s and p near shorts and cast levels behind. this is part of where the market participants are playing a little bit this ebb and flow. you had eight moves of plus or -9% in the s and p this year. at least drop to peak or peak to drop. i think that's where the market is trading right now. >> i know you're going to go to this next, the bic has remained relatively muted. i'm in your head, right? >> have you got a camera or
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something here? because i was just googling that lower on the day. and it's interesting, it's amazing. i think you bring up a great point. it's interesting, but i will throw things out there just to ponder. when they're exposed to the outside, it's an event nobody saw coming. and obviously, everybody scampers to have a calming. this at least, if nothing else, the feds told us what they were going to do back in november. so i think a lot of people have positioned for it vis-@■vis options, which is probably why you haven't seen that moved to the upside. i'm not underestimating your point, but i think it's mitigated to some degree because many people are prepared for what they think is coming. great point by you, mel, cogent answer by me in response. >> if there's not cash, their health hedging. our next is underestimating odds of a fed pivot. nancy davis runs a firm of
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interest-rate volatility and inflation hedge eat yet. nancy, welcome back to the show, welcome back to the judeo. we had a chance to chat in the green room, so it's not necessarily a privet, what sort of the notion that the feds could ease off of full hawk a little earlier than what we think? >> exactly. the fed has been so hawkish, and so they moved the rate hike expectations. so right now, with only four months left to '22, we have 122 basis points priced in. the fed has to hike 122 basis points just to meet expectation. if they hike 75 or 50 and then another 25, that would actually be perceived as less than what's priced in right now. >> what you make of the extreme -- maybe extreme is too extreme of a word -- the elevated interest-rate volatility. interest-rate volatility has been high, and i'm wondering,
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you know, and past periods, have you seen this? what is the sort of forecast? >> i can make sense, because we have wanted to. just starting tomorrow, we will be up to september already, and the fed is going to be doubling their caps and reducing their balance sheet. quantitative easing is increasing buying treasuries, by tips, by mortgages, now they are going to be reducing that. and with the caps doubling. i think it's interesting that interest-rate is on the uptick right now. >> nancy, it's jeff mills. just two questions. i was asking this yesterday of our research team yesterday and pondering, how much does it matter at that point if we are recession bound already? has what the fed already done -- is the writing on the wall? and does that, then, seal the market fate here?
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and in the same breath, where you want to go in the market in that environment? >> the rates market is definitely pricing in this recession. slow growth, you can see that with a massively inverted yield curve. the level of five your break evens is just barely above the 2% target. so even though the fed might have retired that dirty were transitory, the rates market has not. it's tracing the dictionary flowing inflationary growth. actually, low growth, even recession prices checked in. but the markets are still -- even though we've had a little bit of a pullback right now, they are still doing pretty well. so i think the question is, which market is going to be right? because we really have two different stories whether you are looking at corporate america versus the government bond market. >> i saw you in the halftime report in the middle of june when everyone was over whelming the barest. he actually thought you could see a move to 4200.
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that happened a lot quicker than people realized. i'm not looking to play stock market, what equities look like are you right now what this rate environment ? >> i think the fed has done a lot of forward guidance, and say they hike 50 in september, i think that will be risk gone, because the market is really priced for that 131 basis points to the end of the year, so there is a lot of room to not meet those expectations. we will be, but i'm with you guys. i think people are very bearish in the middle of june, and there could be a lot of room, you know, so much of the consensus is for a recession, and positioning it that way. >> thank you so much for coming by. that's nancy davis of quadratic. it's amazing to think that we've come to the massive rate hikes, and it would actually be bullish for the market states, because it's not 75. >> the problem is, you brought
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it up to nancy that if we are looking at quantitative tightening, that's equivalent to 25 basis points right there. if you get 75, you get 100. quick math there. if you see that, we have no idea what the effect is going to be. so at this point, it's a wait and see approach. you have to be data dependent, and we will see where the markets fall at the end of the year. >> you know, the markets may be more overpriced than the equity markets. that's a problem right now for a lot of people in terms of the real race, and this is what we talk about all the time. i do think that the fed is going to have to hold horse, and we got a payroll number on friday, and if the equities want a chance to rally a little bit, if we actually job deterioration, the numbers are out today, and we all know that adp and the government's numbers are not necessarily in think. adp is changing, actually, so the calculation method. the bottom line is the job market is where the fed be
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focused. this is a very strong number. this to push rates up even higher. i do think bond prices probably need to come down. all of this leads to credit issues that we have to talk about. but i think we have ranges to trade in, and i think positioning is well-prepared for a long december. >> coming up, several stocks and even bigger losses in the broader market this week. in any be worth a by? trade or fade is next up. bed bath and beyond cratering after announcing a restructuring plan. by the market isn't buying what they are selling, literally. when fast money returns. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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welcome back to fast money. shares a bed bath and beyond taking a bath today, basically, every headline for them today seemed to be bad from a filing with the ses to sarah 12 million more shares to the restructuring plan to cut 20% of corporate supply-hain staff and getting half 1 billion in additional finance. very high prices. is this the beginning of the
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end for this thought? i guess i will spend it this way, tim. maybe it wasn't bad enough. maybe they offered in restructuring wasn't deep enough for game changing enough for people to take this seriously in terms of issue. >> i don't think so. and for a company that probably sells a lot of stuff nobody needs a lift this sorry. but i think you got a case here where some of this last case of jobs and stores equals about 2 1/2 million in fiscal quarter. just burn through 325 million in the last order. they raised equity and an absurdly cheap valuation reported as a shareholder. if you look back on the chart of the stock, it was at these levels three years ago on this day before we even knew about covid. so this was a distressed tory back then. and so to me, there's no silver bullet. there's no way they're going to get the free cash flow anytime
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soon. i think it's great that they are actually going down this road. i think the price for equity shoulders could be even greater than it is today. >> guy, i know you by your fair share of popery and dbase at bed bath and beyond. but not enough. under the former ceo, they try to speak a switch to private label. i was tremendously successful. but now they are going to go back to national favored brands. that's not an easy thing to do, to decide we are going to do that and get that back on the shelf in the midst of when they are supply-chain issues out there's ill. >> yeah, there's only so much as seen on tv stuff you can sell in the aisles. he talked about it and he came to me and said where you think? and i said go lower. here we are at $10. last time i checked there were 50 states in the county, i think, and they are closing 150 stores, we suggest that they have three stores to many in
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each state. they got a lot of work to do. and we talked about it. it was a failing company before anybody even came up with the term means stock, and it's a failing company now. >> we had a market flash on nvidia. let's see what the details are on what's causing this. >> media shares are falling about 3% right now. this is following an s.e.c. filing for the company, which is two days after they reported earnings. basically -- $400 million, after what they are saying is a new license requirement by the united states that is going to prevent them from selling some products to china. so a $400 million lowering of the guidance for the quarter. >> steve, is this new requirement, is this something they need to work through, or does it permanently prevent them from selling specific products to china. >> is a specific product, but
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the filing does not answer that question, so we are still digging to find out. right now, the bottom line, what we do need to know is the $400 million lowering of the guidance. >> thank you. we will continue to dig through this. 4.7% right now. what you make of this?'s >> you know, i've been negative on the semi conductors. this seems like it's one bad headline after another bad headline. i go back to february 2020. and video is trading at $75. they have less gaming revenue now, they have less mining revenue now. so i don't know why they should be in an uptrend. i would still say sell the name. i used to love it, right now, the environment is not right. >> the semi conductors, it's not clear how this will impact the other lowering of shares in amd. there's a lot we don't know about the details of this. what you make of the news? >> yeah, you will get a knee
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jerk reaction, look at the movement with amd. it's probably half of the movement using with nvidia. i think a lot of that just has to do with the premium valuation you're seeing right now. it's a little higher than amd right now, and projecting is a little different, but is not justified enough to justify that kind of premium in my mind. you are about to break down year to date lows anyway. during a clear child trend. it was resistant then, so i will be concerned that it breaks through that level. >> all right. there's a lot more to come on fast money. yours was coming up next. the dark days of summer almost over. but some names are still feeling the heat. so which down stocks are due for a turnaround? trade it or fade it is up next. plus, if you don't stretch, you might pull something. traders are betting on just that for lulu lemon. how they are playing the name.
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>> markets have pulled back sharply from their august ties, but if you are worse in the broader industries. sabers, dollar tree, and zoom falling 16 almost 30% since then. do these pullbacks present an opportunity to get in? what better way to figure out than a good game of trade it or fade it. >> that's right, america's favorite show. game show. let's kick it off with caesars. traded or faded? >> this is a good to be a fade to me. but i could make a technical
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trade on this if i had to. so i am playing both sides of this. the stock is sold off, it normally would bounce. i do favor u.s. focused companies berkus chinese focused companies when you're talking about the enos. but this one for me is going to be a fade. >> short-term i would traded, longer-term i would fade. >> this is not the way the game is played. tim, why do you think? >> i'm what you traded, straight up. to me, it's actually an undemanding valuation at roughly 10 times. i think he priced in at least a recession into this game. three cash flow, and i do actually believe they been elective in terms of where they been pouring cash into that online sports betting. >> let's move on to zoom. tim, trade it or fade it? >> i'm what a trade this one,
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too. it's a little scary to be out there on this one. i realize it's right there in the middle, but they actually make money. and it 25 times next year, there wasn't a lot of growth there, but there is free cash flow. i do think this is a business that continues, and i think the valuation at this point with free cash flow is something you can own. >> guy? >> i'll play this game right, because it is my favorite game is you know. and tim is right. you can make a compelling case for evaluation. the continue to ratchet lower. the stock is within a whisper of a 52-week low, and i think it's down to that pre-covid level of about $70 or thereabouts. >> let's get to dollar tree. jeff, trade it or fade it? >> i'm glad to see them breaking the rules. i feel like i usually get in trouble for that. i'm just going to simply trade this one. i think this is an opportunity, and you are seeing this trend in higher income can immerse
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turning to dollar stores. typically, the demo is less than 40,000 a year in the income. now you're seeing in that $75,000-$100 in income and also with the younger demos. i wonder if they are actually creating customers for the long- term, and i wonder if you will see even higher income dollars demographics, biggest year-over- year increase in 20 years. you might say well, inflation is coming down, so maybe we'll get a relief. and eventually, the labor markets. these are businesses that typically fare better and economic slowdowns. >> steve, i will give you a second chance. faded, or traded? >> inflationary pressure, there's not a lot of room to play in a stock that's neat dollar tree. do you feel it coming? but where it's at the charts right now, could be a quick little pop, but ultimately it's a fade for me.
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>> steve is officially banned for the next round. he will sit out the next time we did this game. i officially benched steve. one morning here with a little twist. apple. two weeks ago, they put a big spade on the stock. >> my thinking is, it's just too steep, almost unnatural. from the absolute low of june, apple is up 35%. and it's becoming increasingly unnatural. no givebacks. not even a down two day sequence. not only do we have that sort of unnatural line, we are up against a downturned line. >> that was a good call. the tech titan dropping more than 9% since then, so we have to bring carter word back. carter, we want to ask you to play the game from here.
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trading or fading apple at this point? >> yeah, i don't write the rules here. i know that that's not helpful. that seems a bit aggressive, just because it sold at 10%, by it? really? why? we had a 10 day sell off, and it's just in line with the cues. the user down 10.8, the rest are down 9.2. so i think there are these moments where he tried to be actionable, we all do, trying to call the direction. and some moments where it's pretty close to 50/50. i guess if one has confidence in the shorts, the clear out on the sidelines, if i were on the sidelines right now, i don't think i get on board. leave it alone. >> does this mean to leave it alone option also stands for the broader market? >> well, no, i think the broader market in general -- there's so much correlation
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with apple, that the answer is the same problem. if i'm going to go one lower, then were using apple is lower? if i have to be directional, i'd rather be underweight or short. >> i feel like that's an okay part, because the message was clear from him, and then he wants to do this first and then do that. but jeff mills, where would you stand on apple here at this point? >> you mentioned earlier, i think almost 25 times forward, it's never really been that asked ants of in the 10 years higher to covid. for me it all comes down to earning expectations. even if you don't see it falling earning expectations, you're still talking about a 23 times multiple in the out years. you mentioned some of the tiedowns in the hardware. i know it's not exactly the same, but at the same time, apple still has over 50% of its revenue. tied to iphone. so i think the weakest consumer
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will ultimately permeate into apple's earnings, and that will put pressure on this dock. not to mention the fact that the multiple is where it is right now. >> carter, and understanding of another chart that you brought along for us. >> we talk about salesforce. i've got three of them, actually. here we go. they are all in the same timeframe, so different lines. so we know that the salesforce balances with the market, but it's only 1% above it. it would take an 8% drop. the nasdaq, a 10% drop. we are hovering ominously. another way to draw the line, second iteration. you can see it on your screen. it's all the same charts, but we are breaking. we are hovering. priceline was bearish, correlation. and i think you are going to take out the lows. like adobe. and that's kind of the problem with the markets, because big names in tech, among other things, are not acting well.
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>> if you are a believer that there is some caution amongst america, amongst enterprise, in terms of bending, and that makes sense that salesforce will break. >> yeah, and i know you know this, that is sort of in hedging some of her long positions, vis-@-vis exactly that. i'm with carter on this one. if you recall when you put that apple call out, i was on the phone doing hedging's allergie . and he was spot on on his timing. is going to be right on this one. by definition in this environment, multiple valuations have some downward trend. their great companies, they are just too expensive in this environment. >> carter, thanks. good to see you. coming up, an options trader will look on ahead of warnings earlier, and how markets are playing this game next. plus, a micro stragylangte pyi late into the recession after
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>> welcome back to fast money.
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a couple of names on the move, shares of octet dropping, the cloud software company hosting a narrower than affected lost in better the next acted revenue alight for the current period. also dropping by 10.5%. the data platform company has profit in revenues in line with expectations. on the upside though, five below shares jumping, despite missing estimates for the quarter. the discount retailer sing it plans to open 160 new stores this year and another 202,023. guy, pick your poison. >> that should be another game we play. i will go to mongo dp. for all you detroit lions fans out there, i'm sorry about this, but this is been cut in half from the november high. it will expensive in this environment, probably close to 16 times next year's expected revenue, which is probably not going to come out. so that sort of line in the
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sand recently. it feels like it's headed back on again. >> lulu lemon shares ending in august and downward dog, losing more than 2%. the athleisure company reporting tomorrow after they are expecting a massive move in the results across the wire. dennis savage joints is now with the action. good to see you. what are you looking at? >> well, going into earnings, we look at two day options. those two day options are seeing a 7% move going into the earnings. that's a big move like this. were looking at $21, plus or minus. one good thing about these high volatility is, the high price of overall options, it allows you to put a position on that you can help ensure the folio. the way you do that is you sell an upside against the stock that you own, hopefully, and use the proceeds from that.
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so the trade we are looking at is the options which expire friday afternoon. you sell the $330 call, so that's up 1% from where the trading is right now. and you use those proceeds to buy a down 5% for a $285 foot. so they really with on earnings, you are allowed to participate up 10%. the cost of the whole package is just under 1% of the cost of stock. >> jeff, how are you feeling about lulu? >> i will do my best steve impression. i would sell it now, but i do like some of the prospect long term. this is my final trade, actually, a couple of weeks ago. because it caught my eye and bounced really off the penny from that pre-covid hi. that was at downward sloping, it did not, it failed, and now it's pushing beyond that 50 day. i still think your solid
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support, but again, i'm somewhat worried about the tumor. all that being said, i do prefer brands like this. higher end, lower customer base, pricing power, i think all of those things are good. i think they have a simple and somewhat achievable growth strategy going forward. they talk about quadrupling international. i think they will be able to do that, and i can drive growth going forward. i just don't know if you want to see the stock move in that direction in the very near future. >> tune into the whole show, that's friday, 3:40 p.m. eastern time. coming up, the pandemic was a 7- 10 split will it be a strike or a gutter ball? find out as the ceo of bolero will join us live. the first $25 million tax evasion. that's what sends the strategy share lower today. stick around, more fast money straight ahead.
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so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style. ♪♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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>> shares of micro strategy sinking today following tax fraud allegations against the company's cofounder and executive chairman michael saylor. the lawsuit filed today accuses saylor of abating $25 million in tax. it also names micro strategy as a defendant. we've been following this one today. amen, what is the latest?'s the mac that's right, melissa. both the man and the company. the district attorney of columbia says he is suing the ceo michael saylor for nonpayment of taxes, saying he has lived in the district for more than a decade, but has never paid any d.c. income taxes. he also said he is suing his company, which is located just across the river in virginia for firing to help them evade taxes he legally owes on hundreds of millions of dollars he earned while living in these the. the suit alleges that he alike delete avoided more than $25 million in taxes by pretending to be a resident of other jurisdictions with lower
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personal income taxes. down the filing states that his social media post showing his waterfront building and his yacht on the potomac is actually evidence that he lives in d.c.. after 2012, as you see there. they also say he allegedly bagged two friends and acquaintances about abating the secret taxes, encouraged others to make the same example. he avoided paying more than $25 million in income tax. we reached out for comment on the allegation, no response from them yet. back to you. >> would you know if -- if he is found guilty of tax evasion, if that would disqualify him from being an officer in a public company? >> that's a really interesting legal question. i don't know off the top of my head. remember, they moved him out of the ceo role, so he has a different role with the company. i don't that would play into it, but i have to check the laws
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before i answer that question. >> thank you. that was definitely a stab in the dark. i apologize for that, but i think that would be a concern, potentially, for investors, he has been sort of the evangelist of the bitcoin strategy, which is really been a huge part of the micro strategy evaluation for so long. >> without question. and not only unabashed about it, but really aggressive in it. and so, certainly, a second quarter markdown. i think of $920 million source though on a coin position that obviously, we know it's happened to the price a bit coin. i think most people that are playing in the crypto space, specifically run bit coin, feel pretty comfortable with some of the volatility in the face. i think that's very clear what micro strategy feels. in terms of the executive change that went on, this was something that i think he moved from the ceo seat to the executive chair seat about a
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month ago. in the market largely expected that. this is news, but i think obviously, shareholders are list two. but right now, i think the issues of the stock are more around balancing and how much leverage to it point. >> guy? >> well, i can speak intelligently about a lot of things. michael saylor situation with washington, d.c. and irs is not one of them. i didn't realize having a boat in a river meant you had to pay tax. i mean, if that's -- i will say this. really, when it comes down to micro strategies, if you think bitcoin is bottoming here, it's worth playing along. they remain hawkish and bitcoin goes lower, you have to go elsewhere, i think. >> this also means return to back to work get-tetrsanoghe, d one bowling company could be a big beneficiary of that.
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is it time to roll this name and your portfolio? we will be joined by boleros kingpin next. more fast money in two. this is smarter sensing and dispensing. fully optimized cleaning, no more guessing. getting the best out of everything that goes in. ♪♪ this is smarter cleaning. this is ge profile. (dad) we have to tell everyone that we just switched to verizon's new this is smarter cleaning. welcome unlimited plan, for just $30. (daughter) i've already told everyone! (nurse) wait... did you say verizon for just $30? (mom) it's their best unlimited price ever. (cool guy) $30...that's awesome. (dad) yeah, and it's from the most reliable 5g network in america. (woman) for $30 a line, i'm switching now. (mom) yeah, it's easy and you get $960 when you switch the whole family. (geek) wow... i've got to let my buddies know. (geek friend) we're already here! (vo) the network you want. the price you love. only from verizon. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis
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advanced security that helps protect your devices in and out of the home. i mean, can i have a bite? only from xfinity. nah. unbeatable internet. made to do anything so you can do anything. >> welcome back. shares of bolero rolling higher once again they.
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a bullish note on the company, saying shares could surge as demand for events increases. spring and tim shannon, chairman and ceo of bolero. great to have you with us. we've got some fans on the panel, and the analyst yesterday called it the magic of bowling. he's not just talking about the experience of bowling itself is a past time, but basically, some of the interesting business aspects of bowling, such as fixed cost they really benefit the industry. can you sort of walk through that for us? >> sure, so the beauty of our business model is that two thirds of our revenue, bowling and shoe rental and arcade has little to no variable cost. we have really high margins. our profit margin before rent is about 50%. the industry average is 20%. so we are able to get from 20
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to 40% just from a different operating model. we have a tremendous amount of data that we share across an arc optimize the business based on. so you know, you have a very high margin business that results in very high return on invest meant. we deployed hundreds of millions of dollars of capital since we acquired amf back in 2013 at about an average of 40% return on investment for new builds and center conversions. it's also not a very labor dependent model. it's pretty well served. when you come to go bowling, you come in bull for an hour or two hours. you don't really need much to make it work. if not, you can go to the bar. the service expectation is relatively modest, so we are able to charge a good price for what we do with a very low cost structure. >> i see you bought 3
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properties in wichita. it's beautiful, by the way. but my point, i guess, is there so much growth opportunity here. can you do that? this is situated in wichita, but quite frankly, there seems to be a lot of opportunities run the country of this. >> there are about 4000 bowling centers in the u.s. we are the biggest bowling player in the world. but we only have about 8% market share. the 310, 321 locations. we are acquiring all across the country. we are building many markets. we built a number of centers recently. one in tysons corner, two in virginia, and over in crystal city in florida. we are building a number of new centers in california. so we have four vectors of growth. we renovate existing centers that we have in our port folio that haven't been renovated yet, and then we have organic growth. so in the four years leading up to covid, our same-store sales
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rep was almost 5%, which was dramatically better than any of our location-based entertainment competitors. >> we have some more questions, including the rise of gutter guards. we want to save it for another time. it's been really great speaking with you. be my great to see you, too. thank you. >> by the way, we've had a fast money holiday party at a bowling alley. it was tremendous fun, and i understand you just partook in bowling recently the other day. >> i was bowling last weekend with my kids, and definitely needed the gutter guards. but it's great fun. if you think about the family experience there, but also the breakdown, there i am with my kids. they were better bowlers than i was, my daughter was, for sure. the roi he's talking about, his ability to grow that business is very impressive. but more importantly, the margin is very impressive on the wire. >> final trades, up next.
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>> final trade, guy? tim? >> i did were the bowling shoes the other night.
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>> jeff? >> dollar tree. take advantage of the drop. >> ali baba. i'm looking for 10 to 20% upside here. >> thank you so much for watching fast money. see you back here tomorrow my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a market and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. hi friends, i am helping you make some money. my guy put this whole thing in contest. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. ever sin

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