the recovery is very, very rapid. >> greg, victoria, thank you both for being with us today it's really good to have you >> thank you >> have a great day. >> some improvement in the futures heading to the opening bell but we are looking at a negative open across the board great being here. >> great having you, melissa >> don't go anywhere "squawk on the street" is up next >> good thursday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber september begins and with it a selloff in bonds, metsals, oils, stocks, dow futures down 150 after four losingsessions. busy macro day with pmi on deck. nvidia and amd amd told to stop selling ai chips to china. shares take a hit at the open. >> and campbell's soup with a

forecast mark clouse will join us in a few minutes. and goldman sachs says inflation has peaked but futures fall. first trading day of september investors continue to worry about the fed. >> i said inflation peaked and i was ridiculed. >> i know that i know that. >> this morning, jim, 3.52 is what everybody is talking about. >> unbelievable. i have to tell you when you think about it, for our audience out there, for fixed income, hatch your money >> 2007, we haven't seen 3.5% since 2007 >> i'm giving people advice here what are you doing >> i'm pointing out it's the first time in 15 years you've seen yields like that on the 2-year i'm doing the same thing >> mark chase of the treasury curve. >> okay. >> i am telling you i put half of the cash that i have since my wife told me i had to sell a lot

of stuff into this especially when mester went nuts saying we're going to 4.00%. >> four and change >> i think this is your piece of paper. this is for people who are older, not for people who are younger. for people who are older, 65 or older, i want you to buy some. >> it's going to be hard to kee. >> we have a fed chairman who decided this is over last week this man said it's over i've heard a lot of people say he's behind the curve as if he were in charge of the chips act, if he were in charge of the inflation now act, if he were in charge of the infrastructure act. are you kidding me he had nothing to do with this he's cleaning up the mess of u.s. congress. in jay powell i trust. >> are you saying the infrastructure, chips act all a

mess that's a mess? >> i can't figure out where you're coming from >> i'm not pro putin like other people on the network. >> i'm not saying anything >> thank you with the amount of deflation we are seeing every single day, the piece of the puzzle is wages, and that will happen too i don't know if you've watched the collapse of every single commodity as if we're going into a recession, but we have 3.4%. we'll go to 4% unemployment. in the next two quarters we'll see wages level off. then they'll start to come down. by q1, we will be at 3.75% and -- >> jim is referring to aluminum today, 16-month low. the lowest since july. baltic dry below a thousand first time in two years. >> we're in position -- i know you talk about nvidia and i know

we talk about amd, but the chinese have left the building every day there's a new city that's locked down >> actually they haven't left the building they're in the building and can't leave the building >> yes it's funny because how many cities of 20 million do you have >> let's tell people 21 million residents in the city of chengdu -- >> isn't that something? >> locked down too 1.7% of chinese gdp. the biggest city to lock down since shanghai >> unbelievable. >> and stocks in asia as you might anticipate have been hit on this. it also has an impact on commodities markets. >> how about thousands of people get together for the plenary meeting for president xi how is that going to work? i'm calling that the ultimate superspreader event. >> really. >> yes >> there's a lot of competing tensions in the chinese economy.

the economic hardship. >> but if we had not sabre rattled taiwan, i reiterate that president xi was in trouble. but, no, now the nationalists have taken over the key leaders and the move that we made in taiwan has brought them together and i think it's a shame because there was a chance that president xi was not going to be president for life this stuff is so important i have really good sources with this >> you need to talk to nancy pelosi she was the one who actually made that decision to take that trip >> by the way, member of congress -- >> i texted them don't give me that >> don't give you what >> that i need to talk to them i don't care >> miscommunication. nobody defended you more than i did. >> yeah, because you knew the truth. >> i did >> i was supposed to go after

the idea -- >> i'm sorry i brought it up >> -- that president trump was making fun of her. i was trying to show what he was doing. it got interpreted as i was making fun of her. i apologized to her personally >> absolutely true >> i called her immediately. i apologized to my staff i was inartful but the goal was to try to show what president trump was doing to mortify her every day, and that's what the plan was i'm sorry i had to bring it up again. >> i'm sorry i brought it up >> it's okay >> increasing tensions between china and our country, of course >> as long as there's no increasing tensions between you and me, i'm fine >> i don't worry about that. we go too far back, too deep, for it to be an issue. >> the tensions are so bad, the chips for nvidia, those chips -- there were no chips that were went overtly or covertly for the chinese military >> but they could be repurposed for that,couldn't they >> jensen huang's people are saying that's a little harder than people realize, which is why the morning note this

morning was mitigating the hashness >> the ak. >> i reiterate that 400 million is right that's the hit david, if you use a price to sales, that does come out to -- well -- >> a couple bucks? multiple billions. >> $400 million on a quarter looking for $6 billion >> exactly >> things have been going against them on gaming to begin with >> exactly that's why -- this is not a great time for jensen, but jensen is rallying the troops right now. do you think he just rolled back and said what am i going to do he called everybody in and said we are going to find a way to get this so that the u.s. government is happy and our customers are happy. he spent the whole day talking about that to people i am with jensen he's been counted out so many times. do you know how many >> i don't >> this is a wake-up call. jensen was saying maybe we were fat and happy.

this is a wake-up call >> i love jensen >> i love him even more right now. >> the ability of the company to develop -- >> they have time to pivot >> support existing customers with a-100 may require the company's transition to certain operations out of china. >> so in 2018, when the coin, crypto coin people were using his for ethereum and preannounced and preannounced, he said i'm going to find a way to disable this so it is not going to matter anymore. and he did it within one year, and that was the end and then you had a gallup to $750 billion that was worse than michael gallup it was too high. does he know anything?

>> no. >> follows people of tremendous meaning. i am telling you right now that this will be solved by the fourth quarter does that mean you should buy nvidia today absolutely not let it settle through. stacey rascon, who comes on a lot and should dress up a little more, just came from a workout yesterday and that is unacceptable, unacceptable >> she's not in the office yet >> i'm not being like david tillman, who was not harsh i read the memo. anyway -- >> wasn't harsh. that's a different topic >> right >> somehow we were talking about nvidia now we're talking about work from home. >> stacey rascon is clearly working from home. that outfit, ollie's bargain has stuff for sale stay away from all three stocks. >> okay. let's complete the thought on

nvidia >> the hit is bad. this is an animus horrible-us for nvidia he will satisfy what the u.s. government wants and i'm saying it will be a $200 million -- >> the u.s. government for advanced technology. >> i saw the artificial intelligence last fall >> these are the chips that power -- >> ai. >> this is the one i talk to myself, myself much better dressed and look good. i'm not kidding. i am telling you do not count jensen out >> they're a victim of their own success. the most advanced chips and can't sell them to china >> advanced micro, 5%, less than that >> this is all being layered on top of the guidance from c-3 ai. the economic downturn is real, customers are scrutinizing big

deals like never before. they have siena today, jim >> i had tom siegel on, whom i've known for 20 years. this is probably two months ago. he expressed some concern. this is not some concern this is huge concern we're buying that with okta, beginning to question the acquisition they made. okta was very disappointing. mongo db, which had been a gold star of this period. very disappointing >> then it takes you back to salesforce, not nearly -- >> no, no, no. >> not nearly as dramatic, but the measure, the use of the word measured in terms of customers and the way they're looking at the world and how they want to approach making new decisions in terms of allocating capital still part of the same story >> who is not elongated and measured

this is a bit of a quiz. there's only one guy -- well, there are two ceos who when i asked is it measured an elongated, two ceos -- >> bill mcdermott. >> no. >> no. >> no. neil bush reed from workday. >> that's right. that's the nature of their business in part >> the person who has come through this period better than anyone else in the marketplace you know him >> i do. >> tim bolt. initials n- -- >> n what? >> is this "name that tune"? >> palo alto >> oh, palo alto >> oh, jefferson cmc. watch palo alto. >> you've been saying seiber is an island, right even you i think last night

suggested maybe the number of safe spaces in this market is wi withering. >> down to cyber >> safe in soup. >> campbell soup's ceo mark clouse will join us refreshing the company's earnings call. they're among the biggest premarket laggards on the s&p. look at futures. a lot nofews today. we'll get to ollie's, hormel, disney, signet, gas prices, six-month low, when we come back your projects done right

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a company we all know, a company that is a staple in this country, campbell's soup the company just reported the stock is moving lower after that quarter. now, it's very difficult quarterly earnings were in line with what wall street was looking for, but there are issues involving the forecast. i want to get to the bottom of this because i'm questioning whether this should be down like this joining us exclusively campbell's soup president and ceo mark clouse. thanks for coming on i think you can clarify some of your remarks i don't think you meant to be as negative as you were when you talked about the future. we can go over how good organic growth is, but first i want to spear that up. do you agree perhaps you were doing a little more than what everybody else has been saying about the future but being taken to the wood chipper for those two or three lines of your entire conversation of the street >> i feel great about where we have, jim. we had a fantastic fourth quarter. we had, you know, 6% growth on

the top line, double-digit profit growth, and very strong etfs, just high single digits. market performance was up 8% we've been managing and 1/2 gatding extremely well inflation that's in the low teens with pricing and productivity and that momentum we expect to continue into '23. the reality is that the numbers is that we put in place for '23 represent significant momentum on all of our metrics, right we have growth happening across all three, which in the environment we're in, you know, reflects the fact that we're dealing very well with the environment and inflation while also making room to put back in investment on our brands as we continue to see momentum on those businesses as well. you know, we feel terrific about where we are and what the outlook is, which is very

consistent with our long-term algorithm. >> which is why i find the reaction quizzical because you were on the previous quarter and i regarded your forecast as being very hard to do and you did it i remember the statements you made about the future and the inflationary problems to be exactly what they were you bested what you said on "mad money. it's quite fanciful. i want to talk about snacks and i want to talk about meals 18% growth margins, i want to know how you do that and kettle brand, cape cod, goldfish, mitigation, ongoing inflation. meals, beverage and snacks, they were extraordinary >> yeah. so let's start with meals and beverages. the reality, and we talked about this last time we were together, is in a tougher economic environment these businesses are extremely well positioned. when you think about pasta sauce, ready to eat soup,

condensed soup, they're all trends that are highly relevant when the economic environment squeezes consumers and they have to make every one of their dlarps go further. i think you saw that manifest in the fourth quarter with the strength in these businesses when you ask about margin, we've been talking about how we manage and balance this challenge of ensuring that we're protecting affordability for consumers and also addressing inflation. part of it is because we've had significant improvement in our supply chain, both from a supply standpoint but also from a cost standpoint so when i think about where we might have been a year ago to where we are now, that combination of both strength in our businesses as well as the performance of our supply chain, i think really set up a quarter where we were able to demonstrate that we can do both the growth and the margin at the same time. i think on snacks -- go ahead. sorry, jim >> yeah, no.

i wanted to follow up on supply chain if i can >> sure. >> during the call you said you made decisions so strengthen presence in some of the retail channels where you'd been weaker on supply and prioritize recover there. those are your words, i believe, talking about a strong recovery. what does that mean? tell people what that means when you talk about strengthening your presence and prioritizing that recovery, so to speak >> sure. so, in a moment where we had supply challenges, driven by labor earlier in the year, we had to make some tough choices in some cases it meant focusing on certain skus and stop producing others in some case, it might have meant we were supplying at a minimal level without the emotional support behind it. as we got into this quarter and we saw the supply recover, we were able to return that full bredth of the range of skus while also ensuring our customers were getting enough credit that they could get back in the promotional game. that's really important, especially on a business like

snacks that's where we perhaps saw the greatest steps up. you see that in our results and i think the momentum on the supply chain will continue into '23. >> that's interesting, mark, because yesterday "the journal" did this piece about general mills and having to improvise two dozen recipes for pizza rolls because they were never sure which ingredients were going to come in that made it sound like the situation was getting worse, not better >> yeah. and, look, there's always going to be places where there may be challenges we certainly have a few left where certain material availability challenges exist. but the broader strength of our supply chain right now, i would say relative to where we were even six months ago is a significant step up. the good news is because a lot of this has to do with our capacity and what we're consistently ideliver, it bodes very well for the future going

forward. when i think about '23, after a couple years of dealing with some tricky supply chain environments, i think we're going to be in a very positive position again, i feel very good about the work that the team has done to get us into the position we're in >> okay. so, mark, people think about what goes into your products is there anything in your whole repertoire of what goes into a chip or into a can of campbell's or a swanson or v-8 that has not come down, and there were we may think that indeed you have a chance to be able to have expansion by '24 >> yeah. an important note, and we talked a lot about this when we were rolling through fiscal '22, several of our major packaging forms have calendar year contracts. so part of what we are

anticipating and watching very closely is as we get to our midyear, which is going to be the beginning of the calendar year of '23, we'll have several material contracts that will turn over, one of which is the one you described, which is our cans for soup. as we look at the outlook right now, we do see improvement in certain areas. as we think about the flow of inflation through the year, i do expect as we go through the balance of '23 to see that percent impact of inflation to improve. as i said today on the call, we would expect the probably toughest inflation in the first quarter and then to see some improvement as we move forward >> excellent i think that the analysts should say that or at least figure it out instead of eating a lot of kettle chips mark clouse, two things, congratulations on a much better quarter, and go, birds >> go, birds thanks, jim. >> take a look at futures here on this thursday morning, watching some key levels

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we mentioned yields today. you have corporate guidance, okta with a quarter going to hold nvidia, we talked about the lie sen si r -- license requiremts d n'excthaes to have a material impact on the business futures still weak opening bell in about four minutes.

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sneaking in a quick "mad

dash" because applause is building >> nvidia, the chips are for data centers a huge percentage of that. hormel is like campbell's. once again, the numbers are really good. the outlook is getting better. hormel is a little weaker than campbell's i get it however, hormel is a great store product, including spam, and i think hormel is the kind of stock you want to buy on weakness it's not aviva they have to figure it out and nvidia -- >> we'll talk more about nvidia. >> a lot of these companies, people think they're going to come out and say there's no more inflation. what are they, kidding i mean, they have real issues involving what he was saying, prices that are not rolling off the products

but more important -- why is anyone surprised with that why would supply chain prices dissolve i just can't believe that people think that way what >> nothing you want to get to the opening bell >> the dow down 118. jim, a couple things last night. btig saying june lows are in >> mark sebastian says when the vix goes down while the market goes down, that's a tale you may be nearing the end of it should be going up as the market goes down. the real cost currents of the technicians are extraordinary here but hard market to like. it's really easy to go home an have your wife mess you up i went home and said i don't

want to have a moscow. give me one. >> how many did you have >> just one. >> willy lowman? >> did he have more than one moscow >> my dad had -- >> you are not a dime a dozen. >> i saw the play and lowman had boston norfolk and my father had boston norfolk we sold bags out of the station waggen at the flea market and i thought we were doing well i never knew we weren't doing well until i stole it in the interview. >> attention must be paid to the oil stocks and to oil overall. >> forget oil. no >> why >> why >> why >> because -- >> it's down yet again we have the 10-year at 3.5 >> russians are making money off the war. they're now not only getting -- they're not only paying for the war now, now they're starting to

rake it in to the point you're buying chinese currency. >> talking about buying some friendly currencies, anyway. g-7 will talk about the price gap. they said yesterday they're mareking progress on it. >> well, all i know is the pump is going to be -- that whole thing we ever did, supply chain still a problem. oh, my god, david, the longshoremen's union >> what about them >> i think they're going to hold up the whole country >> when is that due to happen? >> how about now the talks are going on right now. >> the talks have been going on for some time. >> doesn't that worry you? >> i have so many things to be worried about. >> okay. can i just tell you that debrom pitched great last night degrom >> i was there wonderful evening. it was incredible. >> what are you down about >> nothing >> then talk more positively >> okay. >> go against me on some of

these things are negative. >> what would you like me to go against you on i'm happy to and typically do. yeah, you're wrong on that too no, you're wrong. >> the fact that i don't have anything positive to say could mean a bottom. >> it could mean a bottom. >> jim's right thenumber of guidance cuts today, ollie, campbell's to some extent, signet, who i think you're talking to later today, right? >> yeah. but i will tell you that she did preannounce and at least it didn't go down through preannouncement, unlike nvidia they preannounced an got to the quarter and they went down >> best buy, some of these preannounces, it's a good thing they did it. i thought best buy was good. back to where it was when they preannounced, but people did not look at what she said, which is basically the health care initiative has taken off

>> the market has been lousy since november own it >> since november? a nice pocket for those who were long, call it through july and august >> we've hada couple of -- >> good to a lot of people >> we've had couple of pockets >> when you had those moments where everybody thought inflation peaked and the fed was going to get a little less aggressive >> commodity inflation >> their dreams were shattered >> remember what he wants. he wants to see no more help wanted, and he wants to see -- >> openings for unemployed workers. that's what jpm said this morning, jim they said if adp is right, the jobs number will probably lead to 75 in september the only way to reconsider 50, they argue, would be to have cpi next week go to the low 6s, which is unlikely. >> not happening when you see that every -- i'm still seeing 17%, 18% wage

increases constantly i just -- i don't see anyone who's taking the same wage that they had nobody is saying, you know what, i'll take the 3% increase. just don't >> maybe if it means they can stay home, don't have to go to the office >> that's right. >> remote work is part of the process. >> i'm going to give you something. >> you are >> yes i'm going to give you a stock, probably one of the most hated stocks in the universe have i see good things happen >> okay. lay it on me >> joe rogan's compadre -- >> mark zuckerberg >> -- mark zuckerberg, i think they have multiple revenue streams. >> meta was up the other day, bucking the tape >> i told you they were going to start monetizing things. verge, i don't know, probably made some phone calls. >> referring to paid options on facebook and whatsapp and --

>> right now i use whats app i use it a lot whatsapp is like verizon without a phone bill >> it's en 's encryptoed and immediate. >> verizon does have that feel >> verizon is $5 billion below the market cap of t-mobile we were keeping track last week. that race is over. >> how's cable doing >> cable is doing great. >> how about the notion of disney creating a membership >> that's another thing. that's embracing i think the 360 kind of plan that bmarc benioff had. of all the things you like, they know about, and that's positive. but that stock is still hated. and i don't know how to get that to be changed. >> i said this morning ad model at disney, and netflix, "the

journal" has a piece arguing they're going for top dollar on some of the ad pricing >> i hate when people buck the gloom. didn't they get the memo you can't say anything positive? i've been so gloomy in this morning i want totake the othe side >> okay. on netflix -- that was actually funny. took me a minute i was thinking about -- >> a long way between -- >> i was thinking about netflix and the fact that we're going to basically be bundling ad-supported stream rs and what that reminded me of. >> your bundle >> things i'm watching with ads that are all together. hmm. i can't remember guys, i did want to come to m&a for a minute >> there is no m&a >> that's true but activision is one of the largest deals we've seen announced this year. and there continues to be questions about not just the regulatory response, the s.e.c. reviewing the transaction, but in europe and the uk, i

mentioned the uk because the regulatory agency, the cma there, not unexpected in any way. you can see from the reaction, perhaps unexpected they did say this requires more scrutiny we need to go to phase two they're concerned if they buy activision and blizzard it could harm rivals, sony being one of them by refusing them access to activision blizzard games providing access on much worse terms. we love sony no way we're going to do anything that would call into question them or "call of duty." but the effect of pushing this thing at least into the spring, not a surprise again, you can see remember, it's a $95 deal, so it is trading at a significant spread, obviously, to the price that microsoft is paying but that reflects the continued turn about the regulatory response, how long it's going to take and whether, in fact, they'll get to the finish line

despite what many would say it's not a deal that should rise to that level of being blocked. but didn't want to fill people in might give them enough time to get their fundamentals back underneath them. even if the deal was in some way -- >> "call of duty." >> yeah. that could be back and bring back the franchise very robust. >> there's no takeover then. >> right >> isn't that something? >> there's a lot of concern about it, justified or not >> again, we haven't heard from the ftc. it will take at least until spring not clear you'll get the same response from the eu >> i'll go a step further and say that if this deal is having problems, given the fact that the gaming universe is so vast, it really does call into question anybody doing anything. >> could be true microsoft.

when it's microsoft, it's going to be getting a bigger look. they also talk about they're concerned microsoft could leverage their games across consoles, cloud, and pc operating systems. thataren't that many companies that have that going on. >> no. no but i do think we're in an era where, unless brava steps up, nobody buys it >> the tape would look a lot worse if not for campbell's and meta >> you think zuckerberg is not a player i've played him in the universe. he's a competitor. >> i don't know if twitter is up, but they said today they are going to look at -- they're testing an edit button >> yeah. >> if you are a paying user. >> right >> shares flat but a lot of -- as we said, a lot of operational models will get a refresh.

>> look, i really when i say i want to bet against it, i say listen, i usually like to find some things that are positive, and right now i have zuckerberg and i've got -- >> how about okta? 27% off? >> sold. >> sold to you down 30% right through your bid i jammed your bid. i'll tell you mongo, first time people figured out they own it, what mongo db does the memesters are getting killed again, but so what >> as we go to break here, we'll get data on the other side watching bonds, 2-year back below 3.5% but just by a whisker. oil still below $88. gasoline the lowest since january. back after a break

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welcome back to "squawk on the street."

rick santelli here with live cmhq with the second round of breaking news, global, pmi, the new read to replace it, the final is 51.5. two tenths of improvement but still the lightest three going back to july of 2020, july of 2020 we see that interest rates are up but for a change and maybe for the better in the long run, the curve is steepening. long-dated treasury rates are rising faster and more aggressively than short rates and obviously removing or t loring at least some growth onheong end, make it more responsive to the upside "squawk on the street" will return after a short break

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more people will be back in the office but when i walk through the offices you don't see as many people there as you used to see. true of other firms as well. people aren't coming back as much as we would like them to be right now people are staying home and working remotely. >> david rubenstein on squawk today talking about return to office we mentioned goldman yesterday headline this morning.

jefferies says we need everyone in the office on a consistent basis. >> richard hamler embraced the idea of allowing people more flexi flexibility. i'll never forget the conversation i had with a leadee i can't get people back when i want them. i think that continues they can say five days a week all they want, but rubenstein knows a lot of people. it's not just him. >> usual exceptions, obviously they're back, because there's a collaborative -- you're -- i'm looking at you like i have information. >> i'm fairly well up on who is back and who is not.

they're getting that building 60%, 70% full. it's never 100, because a lot of people travel, and jpmorgan wants a lot of people back when they finish that enormous tower. >> how many floors will be empty. >> good question. >> goldman is quite confident most people will come back >> it's not about health anymore. >> it's about clients, it's about evaluation, it's about teaches. i always said you could have a saturday off or sunday off, i did i care which day you took. those daze are over. >> now it's part of a negotiation with a company in terms of taking employment will. do i have flexibility. can he stay home that's all part of the conversation. >> there's younger people who say, do you have an in-office culture in i want that

i want to learn. i hear that, too and they show up, and there's nobody there to teach them. >> that's not goldman. >> this is not goldman-centric. >> you're arguing they're the tip of the speer. >>. >> once again i think the stock for nvidia is not reflecting it's -- that's a better reflection of what's going to happen. >> we are holding 3926 >> i go to my pizza and bagel places here, still less than 50%. still a lot of people are reluctant to come back you know it's a defensive open when utilities are leading growth is still out, tech is down we see some of the areas like energy it's not eliciting a lot of

excitement, even though it's going in the right direction the other proxy for global growth, metals and mining. just take a look at the semis. we had the restrictions on the sales for china from the united states government. that's weighing on nvidia, but the rest of the market also to the down side. china mainly is about 25% of nvidia's overall sales remember, proxy for inflation is below $90. it's not getting people excited. 87, 88, starting to get toward seven-month lows there occidental with a new high a couple days ago. boy, could we use some movement in the jobs report tomorrow. a soft jobs report is what we need some guys were talking about locusts descending as the next

move overall we have covid lockdowns in klein, a dollar at a 20-year high, ten-year yield over 3%, and equities are very clearly in a down trend after fed officials will keep rates higher they call it the no-bid market this is no id, no buying interest right now here, so we've got from overbought to oversold in about two weeks, and there's really no bounce at all, which is a -- normally when you get very oversold, you can stay oversold for a while, you start tots a bounce. the dow itself is in a down trend, and several sectors are in more note appear down trends than others. for some strange reason, health care has acted terribly lately thene another sector completely,

robotics, video game technology, all of that is also in a more notal downtrend. so we're in what mark at u.b.s., he called it the bizarro world of investing, mean bad news would be -- so what we need is a jobs report well below expectations i polled people around yesterday saying what would make the market rise just on that number alone. most of it centered around 200,000. still pretty strong even at 200,000, so we'll see. we need some bad economic news i'm sorry to say that. >> yeah, that's what people are thinking about come tomorrow we'll see, bob pisani. let's get to jim and stop trading this morning. >> if we were in a specialized

area, retail for people who are not -- of little means, there's no stopping your stock five below had a quarter that i thought was subpar there it is. five below, dollar general, dollar tree, the market is fixated on that. that's where we're all going to go it should be fixed on sam's and costco, which is doing incredibly well. dollar tree, dollar general -- >> costco comps up ten, news about the sam's club membership fee yesterday. >> that was very positive. i search for positives among a sea of negatives, but it is true i field wounded with nvidia. you should never love a stock. never name your dog after a

stock. >> speaking of consumer, and focusing on the low end, what is the signet message whether you talk to them >> i think the signet message is basically she's doing fine people seems to remember when the company was a sort of -- they're going to have a great holiday season, and the stock is inexpensive. i've never had motorola solutions on talk about a stock it just goes up and up and up. so the general tell-good story is we never mention qualcomm, that is also having problems >> qualcomm is not getting sued, xlon. >> i'm sad >> don't be sad. the sun will shine again. >> we'll see you too long. we're back after a break

welcome back to "squawk on the street."

this is our last tranche of breaking news. construction spending for the month of july, expected down 0.2, and we doubled down minus 0.4. that's two months of back-to-back negative construction spending. if there's any good new, it's found in the revision. minus 1.1, which happened to have been the worse since april of 2020, gets upgraded down to 0.5. so we cut it in half basically last month and down double this month. on ism manufacturing, our august read at 52.8, 52.8 is exactly the same as our july read at 52.8 both of those happen to be the lowest level going back to june of 2020. if we look at 52.5 for prices

paid, 52.5 is definitely so much slower, it really is a blast of good news. 52.5 is the lowest level going back to june of 2020 as well remember, on prices paid, that's the one component we want to see actually go down 51.3 on new orders, that is really, really good news that's the betts level going back to march, and considering tomorrow's employment, best level since may, these are good numbers on new order and empl employment. >> carl, back to you fascinating rick good thursday morning. oil levels below 87, but

we'll see if they turns. >> yes, exactly, we are 30 minutes into the trading session. starting with hormel foods, earnings coming in slightly below estimates. shares of mongo db, those are getting fresh today. down 21% after the company predicted a larger than expected loss for the second half of the year that stock is down around 50% year to date okta with an improve outlook, saying it was running into unexpected integration issues following its acquisition of the rival. don't miss okta's ceo later today on "techcheck."

>> both companies were told essential you have to get a license immediately to sell certain chips to china, effectively saying you can't -- and nvidia says the new license requirements may impact the company's ability to complete its development of the h-100 chip in a timely manner, and transitioning certain operations out of china christopher denly joins me >> this is just the latest salvo in this, i guess you would call it an ongoing cold war, trade war. we expect more bans as this cold war evolves. they actually came out and said we don't -- but as this drags on, you'll see more and more announcements like this. it's unfortunate, but it's the

new reality of geopolitics, i guess. >> in some ways you could argue it's a victim of its own success. is that reaction in the stock price justified, in your opinion? >> that's a colleague of mine to comment on that. >> okay. give me your broader take in terms of the impact you say, given the continued raising of tensions between the two countries. does it overall sort of make you look at the sector in a different way, and perhaps discount to some extent they stocks. >> that's a good question. i think there's a lot of bigger issues going on in the semiconductor sector that's causing it to sell off this clearly doesn't help.

we also have a fairly large inventory build. i would say that, you know, we're more focused on what's going on economically, what's going on with inventory, and the latest in the china versus u.s./rest of the world salvo. >> i wonder if there's any way these revenues can be made up, with other products? other partners other business lines >> definitely. china's about 25% of semis, but again they're not banning everything they're banning the latest chips to one part of the globe eventually somebody will step in, they'll keep introducing any chips. does this cold war continue? probably, but there will be other avenues as well. again, i want to emphasize it's the newest

it's not like they're banning everything to china. >> this announcement of the $15 billion investment in boyce yes, are we see quantifiable effects from the chips act is this related? >> i think it's somewhat related to that. i think the semi companies feel a bit emboldened to start spending more on capacity. the chips act only lasts niv years, but i think you'll seer more help come down the line in pretty much every other large, iguess you would call i economically sizable government has some sort of subsidies for the industry japan started this in the '80s, taiwan, china, and i think the u.s. is a bit late in the game, but late is better than not at all. i would expect more and more

subsidies to come. >> christopher, thank you. appreciate it. sticking with china, one of the country's largest cities announcing a lockdown of 21 million residents, launching four days of covid testing our eunice yu is live with us, and we'll talk to here for a few moments. >> 21 million people, 1.7% roughly of gdp, but we continue to wonder, when is the zero covid policy going to end? it creates a great deal of uncertainty. i guess the answer is not yet. >> not yet, to long down entire very large cities that can be important to the global supply chain. my goodness, this seems like we

need an end game at some point eunice, hello. >> reporter: hey, guys, as if the economic situation isn't bad enough in china, as of tine, the 21 milled onright-hand side of chengdu have been ordered to stay at home the mass testing is supposed to take place until sunday, but there's no guarantee it will end on that day. today we saw several people posting pictures of them to bepiling food and panic buying, chengdu accounts for about 1.7% of china's gdp it's a big industrial base it is in a closed-loop system, the chengdu officials said other fact tors would be allowed to

stay open as long as they met certain environments, which means that workers live and work on the premises. this lockdown in chengdu is the latest in a fringe as well as port cities around the country a port city imposed targeted lockdowns, and shen zen they're being urged not to leave the city this is an especially sensitive time right now in decline where the leadership is expected to be reshuffled in about six weeks' time the expect ais president xi jinping will maintain his role of stay flog power for an unprecedented third term because of that, the security here has been very tight the authorities have been prioritizing stability and wouldn't want to see

disruptions, which would include any major outbreaks. there's one piece of good news hong kong has set it's mulling lifting quarantine requirements for anyone who wants to travel into the city by november. then, if there's anybody who 'thinking of coming in for business to china tonight, hong kong says they have an early support for what they describe as a reverse quarantine, to enter mainland china the idea is to isolate in hong kong for the seven-plus three days of quarantine we require here in china in order to get into the mainland. >> i was fascinated by a lot of the points you brought up on our earlier editorial call, particularly about what the different truckers have to go through to keep the lo gist ubs and supply chain running can you explain about what they're required to do with the testing, and how they're supposed to continue to do their

jobs >> reporter: it's a huge issue for anybody in logistics or in the supply chain that is that truckers are required to brent a covid test, depending on the province, 72 hours, sometimes 24 hours, and they have to make sure they present that to go across province lines sometimes the one province didn't recognize another province's covid test. to other people aren't ability to get the test in time to reach their destination so there's a lot of logistical issues, and they often find themselves stuck with, you know, in their trucks and many of them have been quitting their jobs. that's been a huge issue for a lot of the companies carl >> eunice, remarkable turn of events, as we continue to watch activity on the other side of

the globe. as we go to break, take a look at the road map for the rest of the hour on pace for five days of losses, two-year yield touches the highest level since '07. >> michael saylor is accused of -- we've got a lot more "squawk t see sait eaonhetrt"trghahd. don't go anywhere.

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the clear priority was bringing inflation down it was having significant implications and hardships for businesses and households around the world. that lines up with my own priority, being president of the dallas fed and as a policy maker, the number one priority has to be to restory price stability. >> that was the new dallas fed chair president, lorie logan we lost a bit the ground this morning on the heels of the ism number

they know that the inflation is softening but it's the -- >> there's no relief in sight where you have september, kids are headed back to school. we learned important lessons over the summer. first is, prices are coming down we believe inflation peaked. this is plenty of evidence, gas prices, used car prices, even one-year forward inflation, after it was 5.5%. just like serena proved she's not done, the fed is not done it is because, as you said, they're sifting their focus away from inflation, which is coming down towards the jobs market. the jobs opening kick higher and you're actually rooting for bad news on the jobs market?

that's not a great place for sentiment. >> delano, how does that weigh on bulls sentiment is there a sense that the fed is moving the goal post >> i think there's a bit of that obviously there could be signs of a peak, if you look at the consumer, there's still the feeling we're way too hot and the prices in certainly areas, obviously in certain prices, talking about the high end, or lower end, i think when you think about the sentiment currently not in equities, but in general, it's not very good if you look back at businesses, and how they're revising earnings lower, and even now news of lockdowns, it's not good for supply chains and early estimates going forward.

i think we still want to focus on inflation, especially for, you know, growth stocks and equities going forward, carl >> when you look at the direction of the market, to delano's point, the sentiment feels fairly negative, but inflation has peaked, do you think we further to fall >> we do not think we revisit the lows from earlier in the summer, rye? headline inflation is moving lower. at the end of the day that was painful gas prices, even in new jersey $3.79 a gallon. it's in a much better place there, but the fed squauvd any idea in jackson hole there would be a fed put anywhere in sight in the summer of next year, all that's been pushed out federal funds rates get to 4%,

so you have to take off the highs we saw earlier in the summer, but also the lows. we think about 3800 to 4200 is a tradeable range. >> you've got a ten-year 3.5%, first time i've seen that number in 15 years. >> yeah, the two-year, excuse me, thank you. why don't i just park some money there and take a break >> we used to tell clients all the time, cash is the worst thing to have in your pot folio, when you free moment rate is getting to four, it looks much better for us right now. fixed income also looks good fixed income as a way to manage risks also looks good in addition to cash we don't have a recessionary view yesterday, but much more interesting in the front of the curve. >> delano, given everything we've talked about, what explains some decent performance

to today. >> i think for myself and people looks at the performance, looking at strong cash flow for a majority of the companies, but, you know, if you look set s&p 500, 7% to 8%, we still have an annual return of around 11% so i think some of the buys interest is coming in, looking at we still have potentially more to go, and picking different opportunities with strong cash flow, different opportunities that will be strong in the long term. and staying safe and being in the pocket that is going to rebound as the mark and the economy rebounds as well >> let's see september is fraught, at least history tells us that. guys, great to see you have a great long weekend. well, still to come, we'll

talk microstrategies, michael saylor, accused of evading $25 million of taxes and nutanix, that stock is still down 30% this year, but now up nearly 50% in the past opit, 3 tayod we're back in two.

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the retail sector has not been spared from the recent sell-off the xrt on its fourth straight day of losses. one names in the group, that's the parent, like sayles, kay jewelers even though it gave us a preannouncement. , with the consumers discretionary there some names in the green, of this defensive

posit positioning b of a has this incredible chart of private label foot the right label food, this most recent quarter, as it does the quarter before you can't read into that, i don't believe as much as you can. i've been peeking around

particularly on apparel as you're going back to school. the apart gets done later than the school supplies, but i also find it interesting, when we talk so much about the supply chain and the mismatch of n inventory. i haven't seen as much inventory, which makes me think it's coming down the pike, which could sets impress or depress the promotional -- >> so much for inflation. >> you get a deal. if you start your holiday shopping early and smartly, i think you could be in for some good deals moving on here, another name is microstrategy of course, that's known as a company that owns an awful lot of bitcoin, but the dc attorney general is accusing michael saylor of tax fraud. our robert frank has the story.

>> good morning, david, michael saylor denying the allegations, saying he started filing taxes as a florida resident about ten years ago. he bought a house in miami, changed his driver's license and voter registration, but according to the ag, he actually continued living in d.c. in a 7,000 square foot penthouse or his yacht docked nearby. the complaint says that saylor bragged to hi confident dance about the plan to create the illusion of residing in florida. what's unusual is this did not come from a tax audit or from the authorities, it came from a whistle-blower complaint under the false claims agent that targets tax dodgers and rewards the whistle-blower the ag also suing

microstrategies saying the company filed false returns on behalf of saylor the lawsuit claims he avoided $25 million, seeking up to $100 million in taxes and personality. sayerror or says florida is at the center of my personal and family life. microstrategies claiming the claims are false and an overreach. david, another piece of a tough year for saylor, for bitcoin and microstrategy. >> it points out obviously a benefits to states with low are tax rye jet stream overall the hedge funders, private equitye. rs what ability do these cities and states have to try to, you know, prove their case is it based on your easy pass oar tracking you how does it work, robert

>> it's so many pieces and now technology has made it easier. when you're a high earner and move to tax residency in florida, you are automatically audited. they use everything. they will even go to your refrigerator if you at any time to own an apartment in new york city and make sure that refrigerator is not stocked for someone who lives in new york city the key to this case, though, is that the company had access to the security personnel, the drivers, the pilots, all of that data that was keeping track of michael saylor, or following him or helping him all of that data is kept by the company. the whistle-blower presumably was working for the company, so they don't need to do a traditional audit. they're going to rely on this data that the company has to make their case. thanks, robert

kristina partsinevelos has a news update. >> hi, carl and everyone else. reading skills of 9-year-olds fell to the lowest level in decades. it was the first time we saw declines in math scores since the test was first given in the 1970s. results for other age groups are expected later on this year. in northern spain, a fierce hailstorm killed an infant and injured more than 20 people. the hailstones were up to 4 inches across. many buildings and cars were damaged in the storm. the broncos are paying big money to make sure russell wilson staying their quarterback. he gets a contract extension worth $165 million already guaranteed wilson is set to earn only, only $24 million this season under his existing contract.

chump change carl, back to you. >> second highest paid qb by annual value incredible speaking of wilson, tomorrow morning, don't miss the big show russell wilson will join us live here on set in the 9:00 a.m. hour, fresh off signing that contract extension c'taingo lkith him. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq zero-commission trades for online u.s. stocks and etfs.

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honing in on semis this morning, down again for a fifth negative session in a row. dragging on the sector our nest guest remains positive joining us now is brad singerland thanks for joining us this

morning. the news is not enough to deter you, is it just sort of a frustrating development or bigger than that >> it certainly is a frustrating development, but i have to look across the whole sector, and it's the engine that underpins all of the digital transition. it's running the cloud, the software, the apps, the robotics, the automation it is increasingly the sector, we invest across that entire spectrum, not just in the chip sector, but across technology and other sectors as well. we're clearly going through some issues with restrictions in china. that's not going to stop it's going to keep happening as tensioning rise. we're going through an inventory

correction we nose what's going on with the macro globally, but a lot of negative is priced in. it's always hard to know, but we see a lot of opportunities >> i understand your point, certainly technology is leading -- but it's also leading the market down, again, much lower for the nasdaq why are you so positive and what could your horizon be if we're still looking at economic growth contracting a bit here the reason we're positive, one, the market has pulled back a lot. so it reflects a lot of potential negativity, but, two, technology is the deflationary force of the economy

that's been the case since the wheel was invented we're more productive, we do things quicker, and that is sort of an accelerating trend in technology as things shift to the cloud, as things go digital, as a.i. becoming more relevant and ability to automate more functions, if you're running a company today, the best option is the leveraged technology to drive deflation to offset the inflation that's out there inflation is causing companies to say, hey, we've got to invest in technology, and we've seen that in the results of tech companies. though some have been weaker, they're still thiolings up on a fundamental basis. >> all right well, what does that mean, then? i mean, you know, these long-term trends are great, make

sense, bur you're in business to make money for your clients, i would assume, which means you have to buy them tess right time the nasdaq is down over 25% year to date. what names where? are you down for the year at this point and buying more, because you think it's an opportunity? or are you a bit more cautious >> if you think of it in the broad are terms of contents of a portfolio. you have to leave room to buy more workday had great results last week. they're helping companies to automate processes you know, there's just a lot of opportunities out there, and you've got to the in the game. you can't call the bottom. the market did make you feel dumber than you are when you're down like this, but you have to focus on what are the numbers a year from now, two years from

now, and is this the right time? you know, we feel like, particularly with the most recent pullback there's a lot of opportunities out there. >> when you start having geopolitics and national security place limits on your ability to expand, you can't sell to russia, you now have to have new licenses to sell to china, doesn't that force you to at least look at the limits of your model >> i apologize, i missed the first part of your question, because somebody was talking in my ear you've got to, you know, position sizesh invest across the entire growth spectrum, and, you know, as we're in this higher-rate environment, there's still a lot of opportunities for investors out there.

>> brad, thank you for being with us this morning. >> thank you. don't miss our coverage of code we'll be on site with many business leaders, all taking the stage with cara swisher and company. coverage kicks off on tuesday. the markets are not far from session lows here. wahibulls are obviously tcng to see if 3900 holds we'll be right back. ...running on a big impressive wireless network. how are we different? we exist only on your phone. so you get unlimited data for just $30/mo, taxes and fees included. plus we have a new plan with 5g ultra wideband. switch today at visible dot com. - [narrator] the future. the way you see it is said to depend on where you sit. at x-chair, we think it also gets down to how you sit, which is why our technology is lightyears ahead. x-chair has done it again with our groundbreaking elemax technology,

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welcome back as workers apparently are going to return to the office, child care front and center for many families staffing shortages at daycare and other schools as well proving to be a bit of a headwind, at least the idea of a full return to pre-pandemic normal for more, steven cramer, we should note our parent company

nbc does business with bright horizons, and let's just start off on your own shortage of workers, steven. where do you stand in terms of getting the people you need as to taft your own facilities. >> certainly the last couple years have been challengic for the industry and bright horizons we closed 80% of our centers globally, but we absolutely have rebounded and are closing in on pre-pandemic levels. in terms of staffing, we have always focused on being an employer of choice as of late, we continue to make really important investments in wages, as well as offering a completely free degree programs to those who join bright horizons and have the ability to work and learn at the same time. >> are you fully staffed or is it going to take a few more quarters to get there

>> we are not fully staffed at this point it certainly will take into 2023 before we have the ability to be fully staffed. we are very, very particular about those who we employ. we obviously offer very high-quality services, and therefore want to make sure the practitioners in our classrooms are of the highest capability and quality, and that is ultimately taking us time to make sure we get back to pre-pandemic levels. >> you're sort of pointing to full upsy. is this for real, people going back to the office and needing child care full time or is it going to be we need it three days a week? what are your expectations >> yeah, first and foremost, the need for child care remains consistent too what we saw pre-pandemic i think being work a, whoing parent myself, many of the veers are working parents as well, you

understand that it is impossible to go both productive at work and at the same time be a full-time caregiver. the pandemic has certainly taught us that in spades at the same time, as we think about what the needs are, we are seeing demand continue to be strong for people needing child care, and certainly the enrollment patterns were experiencing suggests that individuals, working parents, are still looking for care that is five days a week, with the vast majority of our enrollment coming in that is full time. >> steven, you operate centers not just in the united states, but also in some locations in europe, netherlands, the united kingdom. we know things like illnesses tend to spread, and we're still dealing with covid china is still dealing with lockdowns. what are your expectations for covid in the fall. what does that mean for your centers? will they remain open?

what happens with caregivers and children >> yeah, we've been successfully operating through this pandemic, and we have absolutely stayed focused on health and safety within our centers, so our expectation is we'll have the ability to stay open and keep children and staff safe thinkout the throughout the fall into the winter and we'll exclude the folks who are sick from the centers, but we expect to continue to operate in the successful way we've been able to across many of the months we have already. >> i'd like to talk a bit about pricing. the idea of affordability of child care is a hot-button issue. what is bright horizons doing with the cost of care?

are you increasing your prices if so, by how much do you have to do that in order to attract the labor you were speaking about previously? >> yeah, i mean, look, we are certainly seeing wage inflation. as i said, we are absolutely committed to continues to invest in staff wages that said, our model is unique in the industry, in that we partner with employers we have soon an unprecedented amount of interest from employers in stepping in and making sure they are providing both access as well as affordability for their employees to be able to utilize our services, as we think about pricing, the employer in this market is providing a nice buffer to allow their employees to continue to be able to afford and gain access to high-quality services at bright horizons. >> you know, finally, steven, on

this idea of the labor shortage, is wages the key or is there a dearth of individuals who want these frontline roles? has there been a change? >> child care education, certainly over our history of 35 years, has seen a shrinking supply of highly qualified educators. the reality is we've been dooling with this for 35 years it is certainlymore acute in the current environment. that said, i think the things we do around creates a unique culture, allowing high-quality practitioners to do their work in great settings does ameliorate some of the issues, but because this is a vocation and there's a real passion among individuals in early childhood education, wages is certainly not the only answer. we continue to strive to give

early childhood educators a great place to work. >> okay. steven, thank you for your time. appreciate it. >> thank you very much just a few points above 3900 here this morning. take a look at campbell soup, lower today 3900 here this morning, take a look at campbell soup down 5.5, lower today on the heels of results. about that shall they do guide a little bit lower on full year eps, we did talk to the ceo in the last hour. >> as we look at the outlook right now, we do see improvement in certain areas, and as we think about the flow of inflation through the year i do expect as we go through the balance of '23 to see that percent impact of inflation to improve. as iai sd today on the call we would expect the probably toughest inflation in the first quarter, and then to see some improvement as we move forward

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respectively both ceos will join us next hour on "techcheck. hero testing 3900 right now. to adapt in the changing world,

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stocks are down to start the month of september, as investors continue toworry about rising rates and take note

of hawkish comments from fed officials. our senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now hi, steve. >> markets taking increasingly seriously the words of fed chair jay powell at the summit last week where his short but direct speech made clear his intentions to hike rates and keep them high until inflation the brought under control. take a look at the outlook peak funds rate in april rising this morning to 3.96, and close to rivaling the high of this contract of 44.08 from mid-june markets pricing in rate cuts, but levels are well above where they had been. the latest surge in the rate outlook comes after loretta mester yesterday says her outlook sees the fed pushing rates up to above 4% next year and maintaining that level.

>> it would be a mistake to declare victory over the inflation beats too soon doing so would put us back into a stop and go monetary policy world of the 1970s, very costly to households and businesses. >> rates are rising as some good job news comes in, that might be bad news for the fed jobless claims ticking down for the third straight week and the employment component of the ism manufacturers you've got at the top of this hour, rising to its highest level since january, all that setting us up for the jobs number to market, essentially looking for 318,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.5%. wages forecast to rise, 0.4%, pushing the annual to 5.3% after a period of seemingly willful deafness for the markets, it's not entirely clear the economy overall is hearing that message

doesn't appear to be much softness developing. if that's the case the fed may have to be like that old avis commercial and try harder, guys. >> number two. we've had a number of people, jim obviously talks about it every day, phil camporelli talked about it earlier, we're going to be focused on fewer jobs as a sign that things are working. is that what we're going to need, too, is that what the markets are going to be focused on >> i think that's what the market is focused on as you nay know, david, i have a slightly different contrarian opinion on this. i think putting more people to work is the answer to the inflation story. i think that that will ultimately create the competition and the slack in the labor and the substance that will bring down inflation. but right now both the fed and the market would like to see more slack in the labor market i want to put those people back to work who lost their jobs and get employment back to where it should be, which is well above the current levels.

>> yeah, well, steve, the debate rages, thank you and of course speaking of that, we have an s&p that's down about 1.25%. nasdaq down over 2%. covid lockdowns, a two-year yielding about 3.5%. any number of different things you can key on this morning for what continues to be broader weakness in the overall market that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street," "techcheck" starts now ♪ good thursday morning, welcome, i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt and deirdre bosa. scattered thunderstorms across the cloud, okta, c3 ai getting crushed down to 20% plus after earnings, talking to two ceos this hour. that stock down 10%, software getting rocked zillionth wisdomtree cloud computing etf