>> by the way, 75 is now priced in more than not, so it might solidify the view. >> 3900, we held it again so far. >> decent traction. i trust it, but verify. >> yeah, thanks. but there are technicians who say, if you keep that, you know, that's important support, you could have upside from here as a result of holding that. >> it could serve as a quality near retest of that low. that's what they are saying. >> well, we'll see what happens tomorrow, and we'll have your last word then. that's mike santilli joining us once again. i will see you again back on the desk tomorrow. >> right now, nvidia and and the dropping of the u.s. government starts restricting sales of some of their trips to china. we'll break down the next move for the sector, go inside the rising tensions with aging, straight head. plus, the not so friendly skies for investors. major airlines grounded over the last three months, but could an end to do some

research actually help boost the fortunes of the big carriers by cathartic and later, after he historically back day, an amazon prime like subscription service potentially coming to apple next week. and we are all over lululemon. we'll hear from the ceo minutes from now. i'm the melissa lee. this is fast money life. on the desk tonight, and brian kelly. start off with a major market turnaround. rally in the last few minutes, treading the nasdaq 100, racing a loss of more than 2% early in the day to close in the green. the s&p and dow also snapping for daily lou speaks to eke out gains. the news coming to say be drop with some semi stocks. and video chatting nearly 6% of the company said the u.s. is restricting sales of some of its chips in china. that site is down more than 20% in the last week, shaving $100 billion off its market path. and also down today, losing more than 15% in five days. so how are markets able to shut off these concerns? earlier today, you said this would be the day. today would be the day the markets would turn around. >> hear the sirens out there? it's crazy. unfortunately, the folks watching or listening are not

privy to our 12:30 call, but we did not have the conversation. the point is, on a miserable day, today, the vicks didn't really get going. it felt as if, if the market was going to turn, it would be yesterday. it didn't happen, or today, which is a healthy sign. and if you think about it in terms of the level, where we traded down to effectively, 50% retracement of the recent high north of 4200. the june 16th low, it all makes sense. but it does not get us out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination. >> there were a lot of reasons to stay lower in today's session. >> i kind of came back pretty hard. i just said, listen, what's going on in semis right now, at that point, nvidia was down 11% of the day. we are down 25%. so just the thing that was going on with some of the software names, and then just the wholesale selling that we are seeing, i didn't think it was going to happen. the only way it can happen is if apple gets on his horse, which apple, you know, had sold

out from 175 to 155 in the last two weeks, so that was getting a little long in the tooth, and that's really what drove it. if you think of some of the strength that we saw in the market, it was utilities, banks were showing good relative strength, there were consumer staples acting okay. it just didn't feel like a great rally, though, guy. >> it felt really defensive. utilities, right, off of highs, basically. utilities are very expensive. healthcare did well today, i mean, i don't know. i feel like you would be the one to come and say, you know what, this really didn't look good at all. >> all, i mean, certainly would not read too much into a half a day rally. i mean, you know, we've got so many things going on. a half a day rally right before we have a job number tomorrow, it could just be simply that people didn't want to be as short as they were over the last couple days, so they decided to cover it into tomorrow. that sounds like as reasonable a explanation as anything else.

so i don't think there's any signal, or any information, based on today's action. you got to look at the bigger picture, which still, to me, does not look all that constructive. >> yeah. i mean, the china lockdowns, tim, it's interesting we are able to shrug it off. that really underscores this notion that we're just a lockdown away from supply chain disruption, and that is a part of the equation that nobody controls, especially the fed. >> yeah. and if anything, we had ism numbers that also gave some sense of the global supply chains are softening. there was actually a lot of good data today, and in fact, you can make an argument that after those ism number that were better than expected, markets actually went down. good news was bad news. and i think that sets you up. unfortunately, i think that's where the risk is to the market. it was great to rally 2%, or 2 1/4% semiconductors off the intraday lows. it was great for the s&p to put an 20 basis point off the lows. but i do think the labor market everyone needs to be focused on. so we had some data out today.

it does tell a story, essentially, a slightly softening demand, although better than expected, and prices, paid components of these industries were much better. i think that, you know, it feels just like noise around china right now. when you look at the markets this morning, i think the pain was really, for the semiconductor space, was more around, what does this mean for nvidia? what does it mean for a ramp-up in new products and expectations and some major royalties attached to china? and i think that works the entire sector. the real story, though, today, was that the bucket decided to, to actually listen to the fed's speech on friday. and we actually really started to see the bond market selloff, and we started pushing up to 330 on tenures, and 255, 256 on that two year continues to go higher. european yields continue to go higher. so again, i think of anything, we were way oversold. we had rsis, nine-day rsis and things like nvidia that were 18, so levels that were way oversold. we were due for a bounce. >> we were just talking

yesterday to nancy davis as quadratic capital about the volatility in fixed income. the moves and yields today were extraordinary. >> 17 basis point move in 10 year yields. it's ridiculous. having seen it go from 3 1/2% in june back almost to 2 1/2%, is that a healthy bond market to you? that's a rhetorical question. it's nuts. the bottom market is broken. but i will tell you, tlt around this 109 level, that's what we made back in the fall 2018. this is where it has to hold, because if the bond market breaks, in other words, tlt gets whacked here, and we start going significantly higher than we are now, as i said a number of times, i don't know who katie is, but she better bar that door, because it's going to get really ugly really quickly. >> and going back to the quality, what you want to interpret from the rally this afternoon, again, you just talked about that bond market volatility, tenure going where it not been in a very long time. about 3 1/2%. think of the u.s. dollar index.

it's at 20+ year highs. and then i'm going to throw this one in there, and if you're thinking about what it means as far as global growth, or just the health of the economy, look at crude oil here. it's back to those november 2021 ighs, okay, so it's not a really key technical level here. and so if crude is going down, dollar is going up, they're kind of contracting a little bit some of those things. but i just don't think any of it speaks well for current equity evaluations, if you will. you'd say, yes, it's great that crude is coming in. the dollar breaking out the way it's doing is not great for u.s. multinationals. ones that have actually felt the heat of a higher dollar, but the dollar is a lot higher, a lot of these companies has reported. not a lot higher, but it is higher than when they reported q2 earnings. >> and specific those within the currency market, i know bk has caught your eye. again at a fresh 24 year low? that feel like a bk kind of trade to me. >> that is a bk trade. it's one of bk's bigger trades at this point in time.

but, i mean, it's just all about the policy differential, right? and what we saw in the bond market today, i think, is the most important. because, to me, it looked as if the bond market was responding to the economic news. we had jobless claims that, that, hey, wait a second, maybe the labor market isn't cooling off at all, and it's still fairly tight. we had unit labor costs that were up 10%. we have never had inflation cooling-off when you have unit labor costs like that. and what is unit labor cost? it means companies are paying more for employees, and they're getting less productivity. that's a horrible combination for anybody with a profit margin to try to get to, right? so those are some of the things that the bond market is saying, hey, wait a second, i would not discount this inflation peak. i wouldn't buy into that at all. i think the bond market is telling you yields are going higher, inflation has not peaked , and you'll likely see, you know, let's call it two years above 5% in the next, i don't

know, six months or so, and that, again, is going to make sure it makes the dollar go much higher, your low is going lower, you name it. every currency in the world is going lower against the u.s. dollar. that's not great for multinationals. so again, to say we had a half a day rally, fantastic, but none of the big picture kind of baseline behind all of this has changed. in fact, it's probably gotten worse. >> the sirens started going off, bk. the two-year is headed to 5% in a matter of six months. >> sure, why not? i mean, think about it. pce is at roughly 4 1/2 to 5%, right? so if we have unit labor costs, if people are still buying things, and we saw that in the ism numbers today. the economy really isn't weakening that much. so therefore, inflation should start kicking back up a little bit. yeah, oil neitzke going to come

off, and oil will help a little bit there, but the saudi has artie told you they don't really wanted much lower. so even if you get a lower price, one of these is going to do? they are likely to reduce the pie. so inflation, in my view, has not peaked. it is likely going to be accelerate, and then that needs that -- and the fed has already told you, we want positive real rates, right? so they have to get the rate of the bond market, let's call it the two-year, above the rate of inflation. and were back just not there yet. >> i guess in the contrast of interest rate volatility, which we were just talking about, and the fact that the two-year yield was at .15%, .13% one year ago, maybe arrives at the 5%, which side of the trade would you be on? >> well, i know, where bk is going, he's doing the math, he's doing the numbers. heading to real positive interest rates, good luck. it's not going to happen, and it not going to happen at least, i think, in the next few years. i think that they are going to be aggressive. i think they're going to hold the line. i think they're certainly going to be pushing above her. look at fed fund futures. the fact that we got up to 4% on the april intimate futures

over the last couple days, and even we peeks this morning, all the way from 3:30, tells you that rates are moving higher. how much higher can they go? i don't know. i think, you know, looking at the, the impact of what that means for the stock record, and how stocks need to be priced lower when you add a higher discount rate on top of the headwinds that the consumer feels. we haven't begun to process what home-equity loans are doing, what we've all been credit are doing, and again, to me, right now, we've just evolved through different stages of a market experience. we've gone through, really, just the comedy, the recession pricing, some recession pricing, the beginning of some kind of liquidity risk. we haven't really priced in any in the form of credit risk. so i think that this is something to be, to be waited out. but let's be clear again, markets were way oversold. he moves that we had really since the fed friday, but both had started even the middle part of the month as we started to pull back from very almost predicable levels. the 200 and on the s&p. this is what markets will do,

and this is what markets will do especially one positioning in the professional committee, was almost anticipating this. the dealer community, which knocked down volatility going into that options expiration, and since then, it's been on fire. it will get squeezed down. we will have a moment to see stocks anymore. >> let's focus on china now. the country closing another major lockdown. it has a population of more than 21 million people. covid restrictions also ramping up in other areas of the country, as covid cases right. could beijing latest lockdown impact more than the global supply chain? for more on this and the, let's bring in cnbc contributor. he is the managing director senior policy analyst at longview global. always great to have you with us. i want to ask you first about, about the chip news, and the new requirements, licensing requirements imposed by commerce. it seems very specific, and yet it's, it seems almost -- i don't want to say arbitrary. they are very specific chips. they are worried about getting into the hands of military. but could we see any sort of

retaliation from china because of this? does it feel like the u.s. is somehow targeting china in, in some way? >> thanks for having me, melissa. look, i think, to be fair, we should step back and realize that these announcements are fairly consistent with the administration's broader semiconductor strategy, which they've been talking about for almost two years now, melissa, and that involves two major pillars. we saw it with the c.h.i.p.s. act. that's been finished for u.s. manufacturers to come back home and manufactured these high-end chips here. it's money for research and development so that the u.s. can maintain its cutting-edge in these high-end chips. but the focus on piece of that strategy, melissa, is what i'm calling denial, and it is denying china the ability to buy the equipment needed to tool and fabricate these high- end chips, as well as the software to design these chips. and what we saw today is another pillar in that

strategy, and that's export controls, melissa, that will prevent them from buying finished chips that they can use for nefarious purposes and military ends. and so this will continue to happen as the administration rolls out its semiconductor chip strategy. the investment stuff is longer term, but the nile stuff is now. it's here, it's happening now, and to your point about retaliation, absolutely. china has proven that it is prepared to get into a -for-tat retaliation with the united dates when it takes the sorts of actions. but we should be careful here not to expect asymmetrical response. it could be asymmetric, because there's not much, quite rightly, that china can do at the moment to harm the u.s. in the semiconductor space. so we should be prepared for an asymmetrical response when it comes, if it comes. >> we started the conversation, bk was talking about currencies. we had a dollar yen conversation. was almost seven years ago to

the day that china devalued the currency in the aftermath in terms of all sort of risk assets was not god. now, seven is sort of the magic line in the sand, and they're not trying to devalue now, but it's sort of moving that way organically. can you speak to what potentially could happen if you want continues to devalue? >> well, i'll tell you, one of the concerns that china has been dealing with, and that's capital controls and flight, as people look, investors look for greater returns. this is always a challenge. it's certainly happening, and the fed increases rates, and the pv oc decreases rates. so there's a lot of concern in china at the moment on how they regulate capital controls given some of these moves. so i think that's one place for us to focus as we look at, at the yuan evaluations. >> in terms of covid lockdowns, in terms of retaliatory measures, should we expect a harder line stands from beijing as, as they ramp into october 16th? the congress meeting?

>> well, i think, with respect to zero covid, i think we are seeing, in the announcements, that they've learned some lessons from the shanghai lockdown, and they put in place in this lockdown, in particular, some things to ease the pain on households. what's interesting, though, is that there's been nothing said about the private sector manufacturing in factories most of what they are trying to do in chengdu from the lessons learned in shanghai, it's easing the pressure on households. this is, obviously, quite unpopular, as we saw in shanghai. but you raise an interesting question, melissa. that is, what happened after the october 16th congress, and, specifically, what happens to zero covid policy? i'm not sure if she is going to get the brakes or hit the gas to get them through the rest of the year as we move into winter. but i think the whole world is waiting to see what will happen, specifically to zero

covid after the party congress in october. >> all right. great to see you. thank you. >> thank you, melissa. >> yeah, you know, 65% of the globes chips are made in taiwan, right? and 90% of advanced chips are made in taiwan. so we talked about retaliatory actions, and the sort of potential for disruption. i mean, we think that they, you know, russian invasion of ukraine cause, like, you know, exasperated supply chain issues, but also did what it did as far as concern, if that were to have the same impact as far as chips, if china were to do something with taiwan, i mean, that's the real issue here. so all of these chips, supply demand issues that we've been dealing with now for almost 2 1/2 years, will only get a lot worse, and they're going to be a lot harder to untangle. >> and what happened this week? the governor of arizona made a trip to taiwan. and the president of taiwan talked about producing democracy chips. arizona, by the way, is a state

where taiwanese are sent, pilots are sent to train. i mean, this, this whole thing, it feels like there's something brewing here. there's nothing imminent, necessarily, but it does seem like it could potentially be a huge ssue for supply chain. >> it, well, there's no question about it, and it's a tinderbox, and a lot of these, though, are, are shot across the bow, and if you think about it, it really is, at some point, where is the risk to u.s. companies that are succeeding and have real businesses in china, like apple? and, you know, remember, all the way back when we were essentially blocking huawei and, and really restricting them at every turn in this country, and where we could, even with our partners, and china plays the long game here, and i do think that some of the headlines here are intended to be just. i think china is appeasing, as he said, and that congress as much for a domestic constituency and a domestic

audience as much as anything, and i agree. the approach towards the semiconductor industry, whether it's on shoring, whether it's, you know, we talked about this, the hundreds of billions of dollars over the next five years, is something that's very consistent with where we need to go and where strategic actions really need to be. so the headlines are scary, and i think if you look at china, who had $146 billion in stimulus last week, to their economy, they have a lot more to do, and that's really where you have to focus. they're coming up, big news out of starbucks. the company picking out a new headhunter. what it could mean for the coeereff te next. plus, we got car prices continue to search. some numbers you want to know before driving off the lot. before driving off the lot. we've got the details. she pulled me in. wasn't expecting that. it was literally... literally the greatest thing i've ever seen... scene... it was such a scene, but i looked pretty hot... i've ever seen... so hot. i mean the look on his face... face it!

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through the calendar year of 2023, and remaining on the starbucks board of directors. in a statement about the announcement, schultz said, quote, he is uniquely positioned to shape his work and laid the company forward with his partner centered approach and demonstrated track record of building capabilities and driving growth in both mature and emerging markets. this was not a name that analyst had been sickening. we heard rich allison of dominoes, potentially, also mary dylan, now ceo of footlocker, but formally of older, had both floated. the company was focusing on an external hire for the role. it also recently saw the departures of its evp of north america, russ and williams, and it also announced it would dissolve the coo world this year that was occupied by john culver. schultz has been focusing on the reinvention of the brand for the future,

meeting customers where they really want to be, which is increasingly mobile, improving safety in stores and the partner experience as the company faces down its ongoing union fight. i'm sure we'll hear much more added yesterday, just over a week, melissa. >> kate, thanks. bk, you like starbucks? >> not particularly. doesn't seem like an environment that a dollar coffees are going to do well. >> all right. kim, you like the eight dollar coffees, and you're also in the stock, so what do you make of this new ceo pick? >> well, the focus on both developed and developing markets is clearly a starbucks strategy, and did focus on unit growth is something we are going to hear more about. in fact, sent him a 13 semester day i think is very important, because the last big one was meant to 20, where we got the sense out of financial outlook that talked about some both unit growth and compounded sales. if you look at where they're coming in on pretty easy comes from 21, especially because of the china weakness in the '22. probably 11 1/2 12% in international aid and a half or so or 9%. it really gets back to what you want to spend and pay for as an investor. figure out what you want to spend a starbucks where they are cranking prices by the second, it seems.

but if you put a 30 multiple on it, which is a discount of where it has been over the last couple years, but in major, i would say, premium on a five year basis, you know, you're, you're at $100 stock, no problem. if you think they should be trading more in line with, you know, 25 multiple, which is a longer-term average, then this stock is kept right here. it very well, about 11 or 12% over the last three months as a kind of to right the ship here. this is an important higher. i think the investor they really need to set a very clear tone. >> a lot more to come on that. here's what's coming up next. >> car sales hitting some roadblocks. as supply chain issues till get the automakers. the which names are best positioned to get back on the road? the details ahead. plus, speaking of travel, we are boarding the airline trade next. and our ne gstxtue says, there's a major tailwind coming for the space. you're watching fast money, live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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>> welcome back to fast money. a read on auto sales came out today. let's get the very latest numbers. phil? >> melissa, these were not good numbers, and nobody expected them to be good. remember, if you don't have the supply, you can do the sales, and that's what we are seeing with the automakers. we really only get the foreign automakers on a monthly basis. for the automakers who reported they, we are talking about toyota, honda, and honda, keep in mind, these are in comparison to last year. so the numbers are very lumpy. it was at the beginning of what

we saw the price of getting in. in some cases, for toyota and honda, these were not easy comparison. for hyundai, a little bit easier comparison. in terms of what the market expect overall, you've got demand outpacing supply. that has not changed. that's why the rate of sales for the month of august is going to be coming in somewhere around $13.3 million. for point of reference, in a normal market, it should be about 16.5 to $70 million for this time of year. and then you've got the transaction price, because there is such limited supply. anything that's out there is going for a pretty penny. close to a record high in terms of average transaction price, 46,000 259, that's according to jd power. so if you take a look at the big three, keep in mind that they still have robust demand out there for their pickup truck. i know we like to talk about eb development. pickup trucks are still with towing the money for these guys in terms of the money that they're bringing in right now. and one other note, there is a report from morgan stanley today that tesla, in terms of its global market share in july

amongst all easy automakers, may hesitate little bit. that has some people saying, well, everything's slowing down for tesla. keep in mind, a 10 to dip the mother to or right before the end of the quarter. we'll see if able to get back up to where it was before if you look into august september. melissa? >> when does financing become an issue, fell, with rates going higher? >> well, it's an issue to an extent. look, it's an issue for anybody who's out there right now who is borrowing, because the average new vehicle monthly payment has topped $700 for the first time according to jd power. $760, you have to go under, at some point, does somebody say, i'm paying 750 a month for a new vehicle? now, there's a segment of the population that certainly can afford that, but when that's the average, it comes so far, so fast. you have to go wonder at some point, melissa, where it really serves meet resistance. and. phil, thanks. lebeau. what do you think of the autos here? >> i'll go right to autonation,

which i know bk is familiar with, although right now for some reason, i'll say this. look at the 135 level, the high we made in the fall. people think it's cheap on valuation, which is actually probably a warning sign, and if things start to move that way, names like autonation are going to get lambasted, i think. anecdotally, that's what i do. i got an email today from enterprise. they knew my name. they said guy, in all caps. we are lowering our prices on our used-car plea. i have not seen that in quite some time. just throwing it out, yes, interesting. so i'm throwing it out there. if you're on these stocks, specifically autonation, i think you take the money and run. >> a couple weeks ago, we were talking about, i think you just upgraded the stock here. if you think of these supplies, you know, demand, they're going to, they are going to benefit from that demand for used cars, in my opinion. phil just mentioned that, anecdotally, you know, the tesla market share -- i've seen

two ribbons in the street last week, and last night, i saw lucid on the street. let me tell you, that lucid air, which is a sedan, and if you were in the market for tesla plant -- it's a much hotter cost. i'm just telling you. i'm telling you, i'm telling you. so i think all of the competition that the bears have been talking about, some of us, i think it's here, as far tesla. i think there are other options. >> running into turbulence ahead of the holiday weekend, jetblue american airlines, southwest, all lower today. also slightly higher. the broader u.s. global jet city is also under pressure. it's down nearly 12% from august highs. the business trouble wrap up this fall will help give airlines a boost. senior airline analyst at j.p. morgan. jamie, great to have you with us. back o normal, you think? >> well, we certainly, we certainly think there's more momentum to be had on that, you

know, all critical travel component. i mean, all along, we felt that the key to unlocking corporate demand is first getting your kid back in school, and second getting yourself back to the office, and then third being put back out on the road. the office momentum is very, very favorable. so yes, we think there's going to be, you know, immeasurable uptick in corporate demand, you know, kicking off in a couple weeks time. >> jamie, tim, how about the cost inputs for the airlines? and clearly, we can talk about jet fuel, i mean, it seems like airlines are not reported on the way down, but they are overly punished on the way up i'm curious your thoughts on that, and obviously, again, around labor and wages in pilot availability and some of those dynamics. >> yeah. well, you know, i think, to everybody, certainly to my surprise earlier this summer, the airlines were able to keep, you know, ticket pricing in line with higher fuel costs. so it didn't really have any measurable impact, and we hope that trend continues from here. you're absolutely right that the industry is really on the

cusp of a labor cycle right now. we would've already, you know, cut new labor contracts with unions in the 2020, 2021 timeframe, had covid, you know, not, not been the reality. so that sort of postponed the day of contract reckoning. what we can tell you, and tell investors, more importantly, is that the date of signing increases between, you know, united and their aviators, american and their pilots, you know, the date of signing increases are meaningfully less than what we've seen in the last two rounds of, you know, pilot renegotiation, even the most recent being sort of the 2015-2016 front frame. so we do think that those higher costs will be manageable. >> wire delta and alaska your favorites? >> best management. you know, for, for, you know, one part. for one thing. these are the only two airlines that did not dilute owners during the downturn. now, on october 1st, the handcuffs come off, airlines are going to be permitted to

reinstate dividends, and, and repurchase equity, you know, for the first time in several years. i wouldn't expect that to happen imminently, but i know that it is a priority for delta and alaska. i suspect they're going to want to get those new contracts in place. there's no point in antagonizing your, your workforce by, you know, issuing a dividend at the same time you're at the negotiating table. so deals first, dividend, you know, second, but valuation, overall structure, idiosyncratic issues that delta, you know, we do expect delta in particular to be able to resume its sort of margin leadership position that it had recovered. >> jamie, great to see you. tanks. j.p. morgan. tim, you've been an investor in this space, so what you make of it here? the idea that back to work, back to normal, back to getting on the road seems really attractive. at the same time, you have a looming potential recession, and that certainly plays in. >> but i think the, the business travel in the front of the bus dynamic, and they transatlantic flight, say, the

international travel, are really key moments of where we were not believing that the airlines, even though they were giving us backs on where they were relatively good i think the big issue for airlines is going to continue to be around efficiency, and so cost. so we talk about this all the time. basically, cost for available seat miles, and where a lot of these airlines are actually well in excess of where they were in 2019. for some of the reasons that jamie talked about. so jury is still out. airlines of some of the great trading stock. these are at the bottom of the ridge. delta clearly is the head of the class, and the dynamics are really important. we talk about this. be careful on ev, because a lot of the ev's for some of the airlines that raised money are, are significantly higher based upon that that look at >> coming up, bitcoin breakdown. the cryptocurrency dropping below 20 k as crypto winter rages on. a resident bitcoin brian kelly will break down what he sees, plus, we are looking skyward for some cloud options. shares of octal plummeting

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spin-up welcome back. >> to its lowest price in 2019

despite posting better-than- expected earnings and raising estimates. worry about the company's ability to integrate auth0 in authentication software provider that it acquired last year. even after today's massive light option traders are betting the worst is far from over. mike. >> app, so we thought trade well over 18 times the average daily auctions. it was the 12th busiest sick opsin today. and the busiest options within it, where the weekly. we saw nearly 15,000 of those trades for about 33. prior of those. which expire tomorrow are betting that what we thought that i could in fact continue, maybe adhering to steve grasso's three day rule. >> the old three day rule. >> three day rule. >> lesson, when you see a lot of that short dated action, it could be somebody looking for short-term protection, trying to kind of stopped themselves below the market or so. but as we say this, we talk

about these kind of high-growth companies all the time. i mean, all of a sudden, you have a company that was trading north of 2010 sales. now at five times, if you still like the business, and you just see a deceleration, you just mentioned, you know, kind of integration issues with an acquisition, whatever. these are probably getting close to level stocks like this. >> all right, mike, thank you. make coe, for more options, tune in to the full show. coming up, we are all over the after-hours move in lululemon shares dumping after lesatt report. got exclusive towns from the ceo. that is next. and we are counting down to a big apple of and in just about a week's time. what makes this event so special? we will tell you when fox money returns.

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>> welcome back. we've got an earnings alert for you, lululemon shares are hired by 9 1/2. raises guidance for the company also handling the quarter posting earnings per share of 220 versus expectations of 187 a share. revenues coming in more than 5% above estimates that nearly $1.9 billion. sara eisen joins us. sarah. >> hi, melissa. you do not many other retailers right now posting 29% health

growth. ceo calvin mcdonald of lululemon says he hasn't seen any changes or signs of weakness from the consumer. lulu, you mentioned, also listed gallons. so i asked mcdonald with the current quarter is looking for right now. >> the are very confident and comfortable with the start of the quarter. and we have very exciting back half of innovations of product coming, and we are cycling over some opportunities from last year, where, if you recall, last year, it was september. it's hard to believe it was only a year ago, where we saw shutdowns in vietnam, disrupted a lot of our flow of inventory, in particular, certain categories like our outerwear. so we are excited to have that behind us. we are excited with our innovation pipeline and the momentum we carry into the quarter and into the back half. >> i dug in a little bit more on the supply chain, because like everyone, lulu was hit with these challenges. the factory closures, crazy shipping rates. but on that front, mcdonald is

sounding upbeat as well. listen. >> getting better. from, from where we were last year. at the peak, on ocean deliveries, we were over 95 days , typically, it's 45 days. we are in the 70 day range, so we are still leaning into airfreight, which is putting some pressure on gross margin, but we are able to balance that a little bit more. our vendors have done a great job in catching up to orders, which will help and improve our on-time, and as we manage our inventory going forward. so it's improving, but it definitely not at the pre- pandemic level. >> there's a question on supply chain and inventories. finally, a big piece of the gross story here rests on international. mcdonald said that was strong as well, especially in china. up 30% this quarter which was an improvement from last quarter, even with some of the concerns around the covid lockdowns, and he said he's very excited about the long-

term opportunity there, and is investing. but over law, melissa, men's, women's, accessories dumping 80% thanks to the viral help, the belt bag, and they're able to charge full price, which a lot of retails unable to do in this environment with consumers starting to trade down. he's just not seeing it. >> is a fanny pack? >> it is. >> i know, people are mocking me. but they call it a belt bag, and it's so that during the quarter, and i think it was very well-timed for the summer of travel, because fanny packs, as you know, are very convenient with travel. it was a fashion statement, and apparently listed the accessories category 83%. >> wow. viva the fanny pack, a belt bag. thank you, sara eisen. >> coming back. >> soap higher income households are trading down to canned goods, they're turning away from deli meats, they are abandoning campbell soup. belt bags, they're buying abc pants. >> yeah, that's joe kernen.

i don't, i don't need to know what the abcs are. i do wear the underwear, you know, the boxer briefs. probably too much information. but i'll tell you, they are extraordinary boxer briefs. that being said, direct consumer up 30%, and an inventory build for a company like lululemon is not a bad thing, it's actually a good thing. inventory is up 86%. we are off of 30% health growth. they're doing something right here. valuation. if you can wrap your head around 33 times, the stock probably continues to grind higher from here. >> i'm going to wrap my head around nike. this thing almost got back to aging lows today, and, you know, expected to grow. 10% sales growth, treating about 22 times, i think they would tell you that's about as cheap as it's been. you'll probably like the nike, especially into, let's call it, the world cup in november. >> yeah. tim, i feel like you have a belt bag red.

>> does a competent, right? i appreciate that. my take that as a compliment. by the way, dentist is a final trade. look, these numbers and lulu are extraordinary when you consider the environment, and when you consider that they are not working down anytime soon. they made that clear, they are not going into promotion land, they don't need to. membership program is coming into play. with all these other companies out there that you have to evaluate in the context may be of a different market multiple, i, i see lulu, you know, one standard deviation lower than their five-year average. they have come in a lot. i think you are buying weaknesses. this is probably that weakness. maybe don't jump in by tomorrow morning. almost 15% to the intraday low yesterday into this print over today. so you are buying it at a discount. maybe don't chase it tomorrow, but you need to be adding this one. all right, switching gears here. $20,000 at one point today as a

crypto crush continues. the entire group of space still dealing with major losses this year. bk, you had some thoughts on the correlation with technology, which has recently been pretty high. >> yes, been very high, right? so big correlation with the nasdaq, it's somewhere around 60%. a cerium correlation with the nasdaq is somewhere around 70% for the rolling 30 day, locke 30 day period so it's effectively asking crypto, and itself, is acting like a to ex lover triple q dts. and i think there's some nuance here in that, one, but going itself, it is definitively an alternative currency, it is digital goals, and you needed when your country destroys its currency like a lot of people are doing today, or a lot of governments are doing today. a cerium, on the other hand, can be somewhat thought of as a tech stock. because it is going to take disrupt a lot of what tech stocks are doing today, and to

the extent that it takes daily active news as a way from places like twitter and facebook and google and all of that, i do think there is something to be said for ethereum being a tech stock. but in general, i don't think crypto really -- until it breaks that correlation. because otherwise, why do i need it, except for levered play on nasdaq? >> real quickly, ethereum, we have this merge coming, supposedly, in make the year for ethereum, i think the spring , 2002 1000, now it's kind of a midway of that point after just trading in 2000. is there a trade here, or is it fairly much a consensus lot that it should trade up into this event and therefore maybe it won't? >> yeah, i think it's probably more the news, right? which is maybe not that intuitive. but everybody has been buying ethereum, because they're going into this merging. just so you know, it's not really a deal. you're just getting your inflation rewards back, so it's

kind of offsetting the inflation and the currency. it's not really ideal. so i think of anything, there's probably a higher potential for a selden news event going into the merge, and, you know, you can also have a testicle glitch. not only could there be a technical glitch, but there's a lot of questions about what the apps are going to do if, if ethereum splits again. so remember, you can have a chain force. you can have, now, not one, not two, but three different ethereum, and then what is your dop go on from the plate. so i think there's more risk to the ethereal merge than people are given credit for. >> i was just talking about those risks. pk, thanks for that. coming up, we are counting down to -- we are counting down to next season's big apple event. this time, we'll include some real facetime. we will explain when fox money returns.

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>> welcome back less than a week until apple's first in- person product launch since the start of the pandemic, they are expected to announce four new iphone models, software updates, and a rumored hardware subscription service. that could provide a big boost

to recurring sales, giving users the option to pay a monthly fee for their devices and services like apple tv and music, which would seem like a good timing if consumers are dealing with inflationary pressures. this sort of narrows it down to the payment, >> it's genius. people hated it when amazon talked about the close associated with amazon prime. i mean, if you can take out that hardware expense, that asp, that average selling price that actually scares some users away. i think they've had tremendous success with the iphone upgrade programs. so i think this will be very well received. carter came on two weeks ago to sell it, sell it all, that sort of thing. 175 to 155, reversed today. i had put on, i'm taking him off, i he avbeen on the way down here. could rally in that event here. >> he came back yesterday and said do nothing now. >> oh, he did. >> up next.

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>> kate began with the starbucks. it is a kate rodgers birthday. happy birthday. is too cheap at current levels. 10 to thank you for watching fast money. meantime but don't go anywhere, mad money with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> hey i am cramer. welcome to mad money. i'm just trying to make everyone money. my job, educate and teach, so call me when it hundred 743 cnbc or