hess, halliburton, cf industries on the flip side you've got dinner, zebra and generac down about 4% on the day. >> the biggest moment of the hour for me, brian sullivan saying this weekend could be very interesting for energy prices, watch that thank you for watching "power lunch. >> and now "closing bell." stocks give up a big early rally and we're selling off into the close. the dow had been up nearly 400 before reversing lower the most important hour of the trading day starts right now welcome to "closing bell." i'm carl quintanilla in for sara eisen. 1% losses or close to it as it shifts from the jobs number to energy s&p down almost a full percent biggest decliners on the week, a lot of companies that warned in recent days. among them nvidia, pvh and seagate. coming up on the show, dan niles

will join us to break down the wild week for tech, including today's big downside reversal. we'll talk to energy expert tom kloza about this developing news about nord stream 1. the pipeline will not reopen as scheduled tomorrow first let's get straight to the market mike santoli watching today's turn-around. >> yeah, carl, reassuring jobs number seemed to leave people to set the dials for a nice gentle rally about halfway through the day. we were hovering at the 50-day average, reinforcing the day that yesterday's upside reversal had something to it. the 3900 level was seen very important as going into yesterday. one reason is it basically is the uptrend line from the june lows right to now, so that would seem to stay intact but it's precarious at the moment not too much breathing room there. we obviously have this real jolt higher in the dollar as well as energy prices on those russia headlines about depriving gas from europe.

take a look at the dollar index. the headlines hit right there and red is financial conditions tightening people on alert for some other macro shock that was not anticipated. so a bit of a limbo state in a relatively fragile tape. as to whether we're in the clear, bank of america was out today with a bit of a reality check on what happens typically at market bottoms. b of a making the case most conditions are not in place. this shows you the fed funds rate and these are previous market bottoms over prior decades. the point being typically the fed has been cutting rates or just cut rates right before. market has now, there is exceptions to this rule right here, okay? i would say the 1987 example when they cut rates just once after the crash was really just a pause in a tightening cycle but it does tell you that maybe we're not in sync this cycle in terms of how it normally goes.

i know you remember when we got into this year, the stock market typically does well in the first six months after the first rate hike that hasn't happened this time so who knows how much the playbook applies. >> ryan says as bad as the month is, september 2 is actually one of the stronger days of the month. >> people this morning saying of course we're up today, it's september 2nd. who knows how it will play out but i will say year-end rallies are borne in september weakness. that's not necessarily reassuring but that's usually how the cadence goes. >> a lot more month to go. let's turn to energy this afternoon. gazprom says it can no longer give a timeline to restart the nord stream pipeline after find a leak brian sullivan joins us with the latest maybe a bit on what we can believe and maybe not believe. >> yeah, i'll be interested to hear what tom kloza has to say

germany has said this is a lie, there is no issue with the pipeline i'll make a prediction and editorialize just a bit. you'll see the term "energy war" a lot this weekend in many papers there's this talk of this oil price cap, the g-7 including the u.s. and janet yellen coming out saying we are seriously exploring the idea of a price cap on russian oil nothing institutioned yet, not a mention of price or how, but they're talking about it russia has said in the past if there's a price cap, we will retaliate. it looks like this nord stream may be the first sign of retaliation. this is with natural gas, not with oil zero flows through the nord stream germany's storage level is okay but the storage level depends on continued flow from pipe line. they have never tried to just exist on storage levels alone along with u.s. and norwegian imports of gas to make that up it could be a long, cold winter

in germany with oil, we've got opec meeting on monday. labor day holiday. to mike santoli's point, why would you necessarily hold these long positions when it appears we're on the edge of what could be an all-out oil or natural gas price war heading into a long weekend. opec meeting on monday as i reported last week speaking with the saudi energy minister, just reading the clues, it would not seem unlikely if opec either brought down their production gains or simply said we cannot make our production gains, which would in effect be a de facto cut. jpmorgan chase has said $380 oil in a worst case scenario if russia pulls its barrels from the market i'll leave it there. >> we remember that call from earlier in the year, brian thanks for the setup, our brian sullivan let's bring in tom kloza to discuss. tom, how much of the oil leak reasoning do we believe? >> well, i would agree with brian, but not use the term

"war." i think it's reminded us that this is an energy crisis and it's going to be measured in years or certainly many calendar quarters the nuisance of putin being able to press these buttons, you know, is a big, big thing to watch. i never thought i'd wake up every morning and look at what the price of natural gas was in holland or the price of bean oil is in the united states, but that's the reality that we deal with now and i think people have to realize that if the stock market were trading with the swings we see in natural gas, we'd be looking at swings of 2 and 3 and $4,000 a day so these are absolutely disruptive markets they could go back above the equivalent of $500 a barrel very, very quickly most of the nord stream news came after the futures market or the title transfer facility, you know, that trading closed down >> right the german economic minister spokesperson today said we

already know russia is an unreliable vendor and our storage plans are much better now than they were a few months ago. how much can that act as in this situation? >> if you look at natural gas and what happens in the united states, you can store only so much it's very much like the bay of fundy in canada where it's shallow and you have tremendous high tide s and tremendous low tides. that's true with most places with natural gas we're seeing swings and things drop off if you get a cluster of degree days in europe or the northeast, prices tend to go parabolic. this winter that's probably multiplied by the levers that putin can pull >> so targets now? when we're talking about crude, goldman has been pretty stubborn about 140 on either west texas

or brent do we need to start thinking in those terms again? >> i think we have to look at crude oil and say that it could also go much, much higher. i think that at a near-death experience this week and the opec meeting is pretty easy to call i agree with brian that they may opt not to do anything in particular, but they're underperforming so badly right now that they could basically agree to do nothing and it still doesn't mean they're going to meet those quotas. so it is going to be a wild, wild finish to 2022 and in 2023 as well. >> finally, you do think as gas prices have come down 80 straight days that that streak will probably ending soon? >> i think it ends the chicago markets have become unmoored based on refinely murmurs there. i don't think that we're going to see prices trade nationally

below $3 i think there's a possibility we're going to go higher in the fourth quarter but if you look at history, throughout this century, we've never seen september demand exceed august demand for gasoline with the exception of the covid year where it was a meaningless 17,000 barrels a day. >> tom, appreciate that. what a wild afternoon for the energy complex good to see you again. >> it will be an interesting monday thanks. meantime, tech looks set for a comeback today but it is falling hard along with the broader market after the break, dan niles will weigh in with his outlook and if he'd recommend buying some of the dips in these hard-hit names. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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take a look at the nasdaq. it was on track for its first positive session in six days but it did take a leg lower when the market turned. if we close lower today, six in a row we've not done since 2019. let's bring in dan niles to talk more about the market. dan, it's great to see you you get the baron's treatment this weekend the new piece and the headline is why a bearish money manager likes gambling stocks and is ready to dump apple. that essentially puts into print what you've been telling us for several weeks and that is that you were net bearish, yeah >> yeah, it's pretty much the summary. i think what i've said consistently when i've talked to you in the past is we have two fundamental pieces we are

sticking with. don't fight the fed. worked great on the way up for the last 13 years when the fed had your back during the global financial crisis and now you should respect it on the way lower. as they told you and reminded you again at jackson hole, they are nowhere near done. the thing that's most interesting they said in that speech, jerome powell talked about inflicting pain twice. and the last piece of it, which you're starting to see now is, don't fightthe fundamentals because earnings are starting to come down for the first time in two years. you heard a lot of companies talk about it this week that are off or have july quarter ends. so those are the two things you want to stick with the final piece obviously is the risk you're taking on as measured by valuations which are still incredibly high relative to where inflation is today. >> in this baron's piece, dan, you say back in the 2001-2002 downturn, you had about 5,000 internet companies, public and

private, go bankrupt you say we haven't seen that yet. are you looking for that to happen this time >> yeah, i'm expecting a wave of bankruptcies next year to start kicking in the one thing, and we've got some charts on this on danniles.com that go through this during the pandemic, consumers massively deleveraged because you were getting a lot of checks from the government that came out. corporations, though, meanwhile raised a lot of debt because interest rates were so incredibly low so they actually levered up during this period of time, which is a huge problem because obviously with rates skyrocketing this year, they're going to go up more as this year goes forward you're going to see companies that especially have floating rate debt going ahead and having a big issue as those reset quite a bit higher so that's not a problem this year, but i think as you get into next year and combine higher rates with slowing economic growth and inflation that's still uncomfortably high, you're going to have to deal

with that. >> so let's talk a bit about your playbook. i think if i'm not mistaken, 25% cash the piece mentions you being ready to sell some apple, but i also notice you're long some names like amazon and walmart. walk us through some of the large plays. >> sure. i think walmart and amazon and walmart in particularare what consider defensive longs so if you go back to 2008, the stock market, s&p was down 38% that year. walmart was up 18% that year in terms of its stock price because as people get more economically sensitive and the economy gets tougher, people start to shift down and go shop at walmart. and so that really helped them amazon today, and obviously the multiple a lot lower than where it was in '08-'09, but i think you'll see the same thing where people say i can't get it other places, i can go price shopping on amazon and get it cheaper i think you'll see them pick up an increasing amount of share as

we go through a downturn as well every long i have is matched against a short. so i can match those against shorts in the enterprise software space or in the advertising space, internet advertising space where i think estimates, particularly in enterprise software, have a lot further to come down because that's the last shoe to drop, in that and in cloud computing. >> certainly this week would lend itself for that discussion given what we've heard about cloud and enterprise spend why wouldn't appleact like a general even in a downturn >> well, because here's the thing. if you look at their revenues, they have massively decelerated. what you're counting on if you look at consensus estimates, you're talking about revenues accelerating as you go into third and fourth quarter from where they ended in june i think what you're going to see is people upgraded their phones a lot to work from home, learn from home, et cetera, over the pandemic that's why you saw revenues

decelerate from i think it was 54% year over year in march to plus 2% in the june quarter they reported for me i don't think it's going to improve from there. i think you have a good shot of it going negative in the back portion of the year. these new phones, there's not -- there's no real big upgrade to them it's just a revolutionary improvement over what you had before so with the multiple, because don't forget the key piece of all of this is then you have to bring up where the multiple is the s&p is about 18 times. i think apple is about 26 times or so right now. you're paying a hefty premium for that name and they were a major pandemic beneficiary as well i've got a lot of names i like a lot better where the multiples have come down a lot as the stock prices come down along with the revenue growth rate and so, again, i can match those up much better. >> does that explain the play on gambling and your view about the future of sports betting

>> yeah, to some degree. there it's a little bit more nuanced. again, that's a space where i'm shorting unprofitable companies against them these sports betting companies, specifically draftkings, are unprofitable california will be on the ballot to legalize online sports betting. you're going to have the losses be a lot less because remember last year nobody cared if you made money the more losses you ran, the better all you cared about was revenue growth now all those ridiculous promotions that the sports betting companies were running, they have all gone away. you're getting to profitability faster draftkings is going to be up 60% this year. the stock is down 75%. but the key difference is their profitability profile is improving dramatically we like penn because they are profitable and we've matched that up against with some casinos that are primarily focused in the las vegas strip where during the last recession las vegas revenues came down

20%, but for penn which is more of a regional play outside las vegas, revenues came down 5% during the '08-'09 drop. we can pair those up with the stocks down as much as they are and with more and more states legalizing online sports betting. there's 30 today and we think eventually you'll get to all of them over a long periods of time that's a big growth engine looking forward. >> yeah, that's fascinating. if there is a downturn, it's not going to affect gambling in quite the same way dan, fascinating look forward to next time. have a good weekend. >> appreciate it, carl. >> dan niles. we do have a news alert on the ipo market for that we'll turn to leslie picker. >> hey, carl, yes. just the latest victim of the ipo drought that we've been experiencing this time it's chobani known mostly for their yogurt. they filed a request to withdraw their registration statement for their s-1 with the s.e.c. saying

that they have decided not to pursue at this time the contemplated initial public offering initially it was reported that they were looking to debut in the fall of 2021 that was then pushed to the early winter, early spring this year then it was reportedly delayed even further there were executives that had left the company as they grew impatient about this ipo that never was to be. ultimately it could pop up again but at least at this point in time given the contours of its registration s-1 not in this current environment. they were reportedly seeking about a $10 billion valuation. just given the recent market volatility, the lack of ipos, the lack of interest in ipos, it's just one of those companies that decided now is not the right time, carl. >> certainly reflective of the year the ipo market is having. leslie, thanks for that. check the markets this afternoon. the dow is down 223 or so, s&p

down 29, a full percent decline now on the nasdaq. movie theater chains are flipping the script this holiday weekend offering $3 tickets in an effort to fill seats. the ceo of imax will join us to talk about the promotion and what he is forecasting for the box office after a very strong summer

we've got more headlines crossing on the nord stream pipeline siemens saying this is about the pipeline not reopening due to a leak we can only state that such a finding does not constitute a technical reason for stopping operation. in the past, this type of leak has not led to a shutdown of operations obviously a huge story, not just for today's session but going into the weekend and the coming weeks. coming to a theater near you, $3 movie tickets. more than 3,000 theaters, including some premium offerings like imax are participating in the first-ever national cinema

day tomorrow, offering discounted seats it comes after a summer rebound which took in more than double the total from last summer joining us today, imax ceo to talk about strategy. rich, great to see you. >> great to see you, carl. it's been a while. >> it has been a while tell me about this initiative. is this sort of an attempt to get those who haven't been back to the theater back in the pool? >> yeah, i wouldn't make too much of this initiative. the movie industry had a fantastic summer, as you said. "top gun" was obviously the star, but there are a lot of stars. people came back but the industry has been slow the last couple months and the reason has been a lot of the movies got delayed in post production because of covid. here we go into labor day, which is traditionally sort of a mixed time of year i think people said what the hell, it worked in england when there was kind of a national $3

day or pound day, so why not give it a shot but, you know, this is kind of a rounding error, carl i think the real developments are in the fourth quarter when you have black adam, black panther and avatar coming back why not give it a shot and try to make a little additional revenue. >> it makes sense. some have said the q3 slate is not going to be nearly as strong as the summer or hopefully the holiday. i do wonder whether or not you think the warner strategy shift, this idea that, look, we are going to give our exhibitors the ball and not put too much directly into streaming, is indicativeof how the industry is trending right now? >> i do think so, carl pretty much everyone has ab abandoned the day and day strategy, either for free or on pbod everyone recognizes the value of a theatrical window. just today in one of the trades i read that "top gun" had the

best digital sell per week of any movie ever "top gun" had 60, 80-day window before that. elvis had a 60-day window and it did really well in the after markets and on streaming so i think the model where you have a theatrical window is one that you need. david zazloff and the warner team have said we're all into that model disney has said and universal and paramount. i think that's where we are. that argument is over now. you've seen even in the case of netflix where they don't have a theatrical window, they just don't give that same boost to the streaming property so i think there is going to be a lot of momentum behind theatrical releases, especially imax because premium and imax have increased their market share and gotten a bigger piece of the box office and i think that's driving the whole chain. >> yeah, definitely one reason

why the street at least talks about imax punching above its weight is one phrase that gets tossed around a lot. i am curious about china some reporting the last couple of weeks that the studios are not necessarily accounting for that revenue as much as they were in the past in their modeling because of the obvious tensions that are beginning to develop. is that going to be material >> you know, i read the same things you did, carl i don't know much about the studio politics about this, but i do believe that blockbuster movies are going to return to china and there is going to be a normalcy we're in a very kind of strange period in china right now because you have the party congress in mid-october to presumably re-elect xi as head of china and you also have the shutdowns, the lockdowns for covid still going on but my fundamental belief is

what gives china, the communist party a lot of its legitimacy. the people support the government is a strong economy i think a lot of the policies, including the covid lockdown policy and some of the ones around, there will be some movies after the party congress are going to start to return to normal in a fairly significant way. so before when they opened and conditions were normal, their box office came back quite strongly i think after the party congress we're going to see that again. >> that's interesting. we're certainly looking forward to a great holiday as you say, there are some major titles coming to market, rich. have a great long weekend. we'll talk soon. >> so i've got to leave you with this one, carl we're re-releasing "jaws" this weekend for the first time ever in imax. people think it's in response to the sharks on the beach, that we

want a bigger shark. but it isn't that. it looks fantastic in imax. >> look, i work for universal and i should have mentioned that at the top of the segment, rich. we'll see you later. >> take care, carl have a great week. it's being called a goldilocks jobs number investors were treating it that way before this reversal midday. we'll talk about how the august report might impact the fed and the market after a break

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session lows here, markets reversing course today on the news of that extended nord stream pipeline shutdown stocks were higher earlier after an august jobs number sa 315,000 jobs added and many called it a goldilocks report, not too hot, not too cold. let's bring in keith lerner and karen kimbrough. great to see you guys on a friday keith, do you think nord stream is worth the offset that we saw intraday today >> first, great to be with you, carl listen, it's the last day before a long weekend as this geopolitical uncertainty is out there so why go into the weekend

long if you're a trader with the uncertainty and there's not a catalyst that we can point to for like the beginning of next week for the market to move higher i think it makes some sense. it's a little disappointing to see this reversal. i also think more like traders are closing up their books and going to start over next week. >> yeah. that's certainly how it feels a little bit on the floor here, karen. i do wonder as for the jobs print itself, those who wanted to argue that it was net dovish for the fed, is there enough in there to think that they're on track? >> i don't think there's enough in there to call it one way or another. the fed likes to have a couple of data points under their belt before they make a big decision so i think they'll keep watching the data to be sure. but to be clear, this was a pretty solid report. we were happy to see it. it mirrored what we see at linkedin, which is hiring is up from last month and this is the first time we saw nearly 7%

hiring face among our members since april. so definitely a positive sign that the labor market is in good shape. if anything, it opens that path for the possibility that the fed can, you know, get through here without causing a recession. >> right the journal did a piece following the print today, karin, arguing that the conversation is still very much about 50 or 75 basis points. we're awaiting cpi on the 13th does it change your view about the terminal rate? i think the market may be a little bit tired of arguing 50 or 75. >> you know, i don't think it does i think whether they do 50 or 75, they know they want to get as much done as possible and go early, or earlyish if we can call it that ultimately the longer they wait, the harder it's going to get we heard jay powell say that from our perspective, the labor market continues to be probably something that's actually kind of helpful i know they're worried about the imbalance between labor supply

and labor demand, but we're seeing employers continuing to hire, focusing on what skills they can get from skill-based hiring of employees and seeing job seekers coming off the sidelines. that's what you saw in the report you saw unemployment rate go up. so overall a really healthy place for the fed to be. whether they do 75 or 50 doesn't change my view i think they have some ways to go. >> keith, just on the indexes, it doesn't sound like you're in the mode to say yet june lows are something to worry about again but you are advising clients to trade maybe in the 4200s? >> actually coming into the month, we were very vocal we thought the risk/reward was very unfavorable at the 4200 to 4300 level so that was a good area to trim now that we're down about 10% over the last two weeks, what we're seeing is down here we wouldn't be selling here, carl, because in our indicators right now, we're seeing the most

oversold level since the june lows and again, we've had such a one-sided move markets don't move in a straight line we still would be more on the defensive side as far as things like utilities, health care, staples and still in lng because of the geopolitical risk but we're looking for short-term stabilization after a straight line down here over the last two weeks. >> keith, karin, appreciate it, guys enjoy the long weekend we are seeing some sell programs kick in here back to 3900 some familiar battlegrounds. the dow is down 450. biotech stocks falling hard today, down more than 20%. coming up, a top analyst will explain why he sees big upside for this beaten-down group. you can always listen to the "closing bell" podcast wherever you choose your vofarite podcast apps we're back after a break on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies

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let's check out today's stealth mover, beyond meat they are under pressure after an investment firm reported its stake in the company had fallen to 6.6% as of the end of august. that's down from a previous stake of just over 13. shares of beyond meat now down more than 60% year to date we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli breaking down some of these crucial moments of the trading day. mike, we were talking with keith lerner a moment ago sort of suggesting that maybe the weakness is partly nord stream but maybe it would have come anyway >> yeah, or at least the degree of the weakness we've seen the last few hours probably exacerbated by the fact that we do have a liquid tape ahead of a three-day weekend.

i don't like to rely on that to explain the directional moves. i could argue yesterday we got a percent and a half rally off the low to the closing high and i'm sure that was exacerbated by the fact that we do have slightly whippy markets but the market was presented in that russia gazprom news with one of the very well known fears in front of it i don't think it was new but one of these acute things folks were worried about and another excuse for investors to pull back their risk budget and not spend much on stocks here with stocks and bonds down all year and this month, it's been, you know, very difficult to have people feel as if they have the cushion to go out and buy dips that being said, 3900, we're about at yesterday's low which was just about 3900 on the s&p 500. it is an area folks feel like it should probably hold i keep trying to contrast where we are now with where we were in terms of overall conditions at the june lows, which was just

above 3600 and on inflation, on growth, on credit spreads, on almost everything, you're in slightly better shape now where we're not is that the fed seems to not care and they want to be full speed ahead we've been dealing with that for a week. >> or in the case of kashkari smiling a little bit mike, there were some technicians yesterday who said the successful test of 3900 made them feel pretty good. maybe buying dips in this environment remains smart. do you think that conversation continues after this >> it absolutely continues who knows, if we close right here it's going to be at the point of kind of maximum disagreement as to whether you can believe the support or not to me the character of the rally off the june low is still the single most bullish touch point that we have just all those breadth momentum readings that we got, it's doing a lot of work for the bull case, for the dip-buying case right now. if you don't believe those

things and think those stats are outdated or are not going to hold this time, then there's not as much to go by but we have gotten down around these levels before, late july, early june we've kind of been knocking around here and we're one more quarter in from june of earnings that didn't fall apart gdp now at the atlanta fed is above 2% for the first time this quarter. so either side can arguethat they have the data in their camp and i do think we still have a pretty good debate going. >> this morning the jpmorgan desk says we still await one of those flush days where you have the vix spike to the 40 to 50 range, the market falls 4%, and you begin getting calls from relatives about which assets to sell that kind of got ridiculed a bit because there is this fascination about a flush and rapid vix spike. how valid is that waiting game >> i think it does follow a certain kinds of playbook in

terms of what you would want to see ideally at that kind of a low. i think it maybe reflects a little too much the idea of these sharp corrections and mini panics that we've gotten that led to v bottoms over the course of the last decade or so as opposed to the grinding months-long bear market, tightening financial conditions. it's more about the opposite of love isn't hate, it's neglect. i think at some point people stop caring after a while. that matters as much as whether we get some kind of a real purge at the lows. so i think you'd welcome it if one were to come but i'm not sure it's a prerequisite and i'm not sure it's around the corner. >> finally, we're going to be in a bit of a waiting game. first of all, two thoughts one is preannouncement season actually had some ballast this time around, if you look at the seagates, pvhs and nvidias and their performance the last few days

but we are going into a period of heavy conferences i wonder if you think that's going to be rich with land mines the next couple of weeks >> it certainly could be but it could play the other direction as well. a lot of folks are focused on are management teams going to take the opportunity to say everything looks okay to us, we're not changing our plans clearly you're hearing a lot of layoff announcements that's not filtering into the overall aggregate jobs numbers at least not yet. so i think it could play either way but there's no doubt people are on alert we've been waiting for the earnings picture to fall off outside of energy, you're down 2% i think for the entire year, the s&p 500 ex energy is down 1 to 2% that's not great but the markets, whatever it is, 18% off its high or something so i think you've accounted for some of it. >> that's a good, smart take and one we'll be talking about as we

wrap up summer and work into fall in the meantime biotech stocks one of the worst performers in today's sell-off those names adding to an already steep decline, down more than 30 from the highs set a year ago. let's bring in michael yee who might offer a couple of ideas. michael, talk to me about where you think directionally the sector is headed. >> yeah. hey, great to be here with you guys you know, tit's been tough for the last two years it's been a tough year this year what i really like is the recent rally off the bottom you pull up the chart on the xpi, up 20% off the bottoms. i think it's a really important data point that we had a bunch of positive clinical data sets and i think we're headed higher into the end of the year and into '23 >> are we leaning on m & a ideas or not >> i think there's two points you bring up one is that you have had a bunch

of deals in the past two weeks, pfizer being particularly aggressive, deploying a lot of their covid money has got everybody excited. you've got amemerck looking at seattle. i know in january jpmorgan conference is coming up, conference season, and people starting to get excited into january. we've got a nice rally, m & a, positive data points, i think we're moving higher. >> is it your view that the names might have been entering a period or window of political risk but we're sort of exiting that now >> i think one of the most interesting datapoints, and we had a lot of conversations with investors about this over the last month is wait a second, you had the inflation reduction act. you have all of this medicare negotiation, drug pricing concern. that's always been a problem for the sector you had all of this passed yet the group moved higher over the last two months. we think people are digesting

that, they are comfortable with that you look at where stocks are and valuations are basically five and six-year lows for valuation. people are willing to forego that, not a lot of concern about that with m & a, drug pricing behind us, i think you can start to dip your toes back into here i like the pullback here, 10% pullback and evening we move higher off this correction. >> i imagine some investors are keeping an open mind about upside playbooks michael, appreciate that very much good to talk to you. good long weekend. >> thanks so much. joining us on the news line, peter boockvar how much of of this action to you feels material versus typical holiday friday end of summer kind of trading environment? >> well, i think because the market is closed on monday, it's going to prevent u.s. investors to react to the nord stream news so europe can wake up monday

morning and natural gas prices can be up sharply but we're not going to be able to respond to it here until tuesday so i think that is helping to exaggerate the response to it sunday the russians can change their minds and gas prices would not rise but again, i think the lack of being able to trade on monday is a factor in this late-day selloff. >> right how are you feeling overall with these tests, the 50% retracement up and 50% retracement down? some of the charts look extremely clean and some people wonder can it be that simple. >> i think we saw a bear market rally. i think the challenges for the market is, yes, we have to deal with the economic implications of a sharp rise in interest rates and what that's going to mean for earnings in the back half of the year but i also think that investors are trying to figure out what's the right multiple to pay on

this market. we've had a multiple d rating that started really last year. even an 17, 18 times earnings, is that the bottom and i don't think it is. i think in this rising rate environment, now with qt under way, rates rising around the world, i think multiples will need to decompress and i think that's what the markets are trying to manager here it's still going to be a very challenging macro environment because we're in a rate backdrop, a qt backdrop that's not conducive to stable rallies like we just saw. >> yesterday prior to the recovery intraday people were saying welcome to september, welcome to full qt you've been a great watchdog on fed balance sheet. do you think that's really top of mind? >> i don't think it was up until now that it's here i think for the last couple of months, the main catalyst for

that rally was maybe the fed will be our friend again and back off obviously fed mens including powell disabused the markets of that notion. but taking out $95 billion off their balance sheet per month is notable. just as qe helped grease the financial conditions wheel, qt could do the opposite. so we're back to this double barrelled tightening that the market had to contend with in the fourth quarter of 2018 at the same time, the global economy is more fragile and other central banks are tightening as well. >> that's exactly right. great trajectory, balance sheet trajectory, seasonals, there's some stuff for the bears to work with right now peter, appreciate it we'll talk soon. on that news energy is moving higher on the back of the nord stream news joining us now is john kilduff

what surprises you given that the whole world has been waiting for a moment like this to come out of gazprom >> i guess, carl, it was a sudden change in course. the news wires moments before that news hit about the nord stream being turned off and going on to this alleged maintenance because of this leak was saying they were going to resume full output, full flows to the line. so it was really a whipsaw moment i think we've all been waiting for this i will tell you that our own u.s. natural gas prices bounced off a significant low on the news as well but the numbers you're seeing right now for wti around $87 a barrel, we were much higher earlier in the day, pushing on $90 a barrel we came off over the course of the day because of a factory numbers order that was weak and

mixed messaging around the iran nuclear situation. the lockdown in china is another negative factor for crude oil. we're still trying to sort this out. i have to say again too, this is a problem for europe as far as natural gas goes, not so much us we continue to build our inventory sufficiently there's only so much lng that we can export, given the capacity limitations of our infrastructure so u.s. consumers should be okay but the problem is for europe. the other thing we have to watch out for, though, is this price cap deal that's being kicked around by the g-7 which they appeared to back away from a bit today. if that were to go into effect, that will back fire on their plans to lower oil prices because russia won't sell to the west at that price cap number, carl so we will finally lose a meaningful balance of russian crude oil and then it's a different ball game here.

>> it was remarkable how quickly the russian response came to news that the cap was getting some headway if all that's true, why do the likes of yellen continue to sell it so aggression i'vely. >> they have it in their minds, carl, that it's going to work and the russians will play ball with them. it takes two to tango. if you're only willing to pay $10,000 for one of these new fordelectric pickups and ford wants 60, a deal is not getting done, right? it's the same sort of thing here the way the market is taking it. i really don't understand this one from the policy makers who are otherwise very sophisticated, i have great respect for. but you can't dictate a price to a seller in this regard. >> it has been a head scratcher for a lot of people who are watching such an important space. appreciate the guidance today, especially given the news flow, john

appreciate it very much. >> thank you, carl. just a couple minutes and a half left to go in this trading day. mike has more on today's internals. >> yeah, they have eroded quite a bit over the last few hours. right before noon the new york stock exchange had 80% upside. obviously that's unwound that being said this is not a washout. 1.8 billion to 1.3 billion declining to advancing volume. you have the equal weighted s&p slightly outperforming it shows you not every stock is being aggressively pounded take a look at a couple of sectors, utilities relative to real estate the last several months they used to go together, right? they're basically both yield oriented, essentially defensive sectors. real estate has given way in a big way, no leverage to natural

gas prices and pricing the asset values in commercial real estate causing them to suffer the volatility index kind of interesting. this was kbloegd earlier, down more than two points it looked like it was going to give a little to risk takers but still even with this 1% drop in the s&p 500, this is almost a nonreaction here on the volatility index side. you have three days of no trading, it means you don't want to necessarily pay up today. 25 is kind of in the middle. it's showing a little resydidua unease we don't really have a macro catalyst next week and so we're sitting there and cruising into the weekend, carl. >> pretty interesting, mike. not a lot of strategy calls on a friday before a long weekend stifel at least said we see much lower back half of 2022 inflation and no u.s. recession until q3 of '23 which we believe

supports 4400 for the s&p at year end led by big tech overall as mike said you can see the weakness here. nasdaq looks like it will in fact turn in six straight losses, something we have not done since the summer of 2019, down about 8% in six days. that does it for "closing bell." let's get to the judge >> all right, carpl, thanks very much i'm scott wapner we're just getting started from post 9 at the new york stock exchange in just a little bit i will speak to tom lee, who says inflation is going to drop like a rock in the months ahead and stocks are going to surge. we'll press him on that view with several september risks, not to mention this major rollover for the major averages. a soft landing surprise. did that chance just increase today with a jobs report some are calling goldilocks