tv Fast Money CNBC September 2, 2022 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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some things are not spoken about much, in terms of what will bring in buyers. we have the buyback window closing. >> you might get reassurance from companies during the conference season. >> have yourself a good, long weekend. >> fast money is now. now, on fast, the bears take hold any s&p drops more than an percent. the dow erases it's going to end today more than 300 points of the red. the nasdaq has a sixth straight day of losses, the longest losing streak since 2019. as we mark the end of summer, is it more than just temperatures coming down next now by for the bounce. a rebound is coming for the retail sector. we lay out the case. forget chart of the week,
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this is chart of the summer. this stock is up nearly 50% since memorial day. we will tell you where it is going from here. this is fast money, live from the nasdaq market site. we have tim seymour, and courtney garcia. it is wonderful to be with you all. let's start with the major reversal we saw on wall street. the dow, s&p 500, and others selling off over the holiday weekend. the dow swings 700 points from high to low. the nasdaq is down nearly 12% from its august highs. it is september 2. anxiety on the energy front is overwhelming. we are reporting the nordstrom pipeline would stay closed until an engine oil leak is repaired. the natural gas prices dropped by 4%. despite that news, tim, you pointed to this as a reason for the swing lower.
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the charts show that clear picture, and the direction change when the news came out. previous to that news, it was news that the u.s., europe, and western nations would put a limit on what they would pay for russian oil. russia quickly responds. make no mistake, nor stream is not closed for repairs, it is closed for geopolitical, tactical counter moves. in terms of markets, we digested this all week, where the eu was in terms of gas storage levels. there probably at 85%. they probably feel that storage levels get them through the winter season. this type of hostility and gamesmanship underscores the problems that europe has and the problems that the globe has with energy supply right now. opec is meeting next week on monday, while most people will be sitting by the barbecue. with great irony, it is energy that was up this week.
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that is where vladimir putin gets his lifeblood. the parol number was important. i would two things. yes, we had downward revisions. the numbers were not as strong as they could have been most importantly we had this participation rate at 800,000 more folks in the job market, bringing up the and employment rate. that is good news. the fed needs more of this. targeting labor is something that will not talk about. it is something they're doing. >> there are a number of things we could talk about. i want your take on the news on the gas plant. we know there is an energy crisis in europe. there seems to be more worry and certainty that europe could go into a recession. the news that came out today, it did certainly change the direction of the market. is this a worry that will continue beyond the weekend? was this just heightening the hostility? how much do you need to factor this into your portfolio decisions going into the fall?
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>> this will be an ongoing headline. we have seen the headlines on an ongoing basis. this is pretty repetitious. if you're going to invest, you have to invest around these things. with the market as a whole, these headlines, there are tape reading algorithms. what do i mean by that? tim pointed this out. you see the market turn close to when that headline was released. the tape goes south. you have tape reading algorithms that will sell stocks. it's not as a whole, is not an overwhelming percentage of the overall market. when you get a market going into a three-day weekend, will react to that. it is no different than we had the market react to the jobs number today. tim did a good job of outlining those data points.
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it was not hot and not cold, it was a just right type of event. we all talked about this. you were here last week, when we talked about this with steve that got angry at traders for not seeing exactly what the fed was going to be doing. we are not looking for a pivot. we are looking for a change of pace from the fed. i think this number gave a bit of hope for a change of pace. i do think they will go a 75. the market gave them 75. it gave them a window to go for it. i think it is a risk off trade for a foreseeable couple of weeks. >> courtney, had he read the number we got this morning? we do agree it was goldilocks.
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what does that mean for how they are reading the latest data point? >> the fed has said that strong labor market is something keeping them from stopping the aggressive rate hikes. we need to see that come down. that is what this report has shown. we saw the softening of labor. we are not seeing people getting laid off. we are seeing the more people are coming into the market. that is why unappointed levels are rising. that is what you want to see. we are seeing that this is cooling, but not too much. it is not enough that the markets are demanding something higher. i do think seeing more and more data points like this will be a positive. there could be an increase as we move forward here. we are seeing that rate
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hike. people liked some of that trend and that number, even though it is just one report. we have a long way to go to see what will happen with monetary policy and how it ends up playing out throughout the economy. >> i do agree with your point at the end. this data point is certainly positive. it is the goldilocks scenario that people want to see. it is the glide path to this narrow goldilocks scenario. what it isn't, it is not pain. the fed has been very clear, there will be pain in the on employment market. this is us showing, we can have a take-up in the unappointed rate coming from a robustly positive catalyst. what it isn't is the layoffs. this will not pivot. those expecting a pivot, it is off the table. we are looking for the
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consolation prize. we are looking at the pace of rates. the reversal shows you how delicate that thread is holding on. at first, it was the pivot. now it is the pace. it's the goldilocks. we had to put this entire narrative together. we have yet to do that. today's reversal is not great. you don't want chips on the table going into a geopolitical risk. it shows you how quickly things can reverse. today is a testament to that. that will be my focus more than the labor participation rate. i do believe it was a positive readthrough. i would caution against trying to extrapolate this one data point to form an entire thesis around it. >> you always seem to have the air of caution. we will shift gears quickly from the basis points to brake pads. we have a double dose of auto news. let's go over to phil for the moves. let's start off with ford.
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he reported the august numbers today. it did not have a big reaction in the market. it is hard to read into this market, especially with what we saw with the broader market today. shares were down, or up 27.3%. this is a comparison to august of last year when they were down 35%. we saw the full impact of the chip shortage taking the impact from last year. the f150 lightning. i want to talk about this. august sales, 2300 were delivered. they will increase this every month for a year and a half until they bring in more factories to build more lightnings. the inventory return rate is eight days. what does that mean? that means that people are getting them as soon as they come off the assembly line. they put them on a carrier to the dealer, paperwork is done and out the door. it is extremely fast. let's talk about general motors. the company today says the
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buick dealers, if they are not going to be upgrading their dealerships as the brand goes all electric, buick dealers will be bought out or get a buyout offer from the company. this is part of the conversion we are talking about. you can see the legacy automakers trying to bring the dealer groups up to a point where people can say, i am buying an electric car. keep in mind, when it comes to ev market shares, this is teslas market. everybody else is ramping up production, they are way, way far away from tesla. tesla will be the marketshare leader for the next year and a half. we will see what happens as in ford and gm bob reduction. the automakers want to bring us to the next evolution. we may not quite be there yet. if we don't see you before then, have a good weekend. what you make of this news?
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are you excited about these names getting a writ of the marketshare? you did phrase that properly. when you look at ford and gm, they both had a pretty monstrous run to the upside from the end of june and early july, until recently. they both rolled off a little bit. ford hit that moving average and stopped on a dime. i think gm did not get that far. fourth rallied twice as much. on a stock basis, i would not be a buyer of either one right now. they had such a tremendous run. let them back up a little bit. you can look at them again. as we were reminded, if the fed will induce pain, i don't know many people that want to buy a
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car when you are in a painful state in the economy. for me, i would wait. they are not technically a purchase. ultimately, i don't see them that way. >> a lot of people want to buy new cars or used cars, or any car they could've gotten the last 2 years. coming up, kohl's or cashing in. they are heading back to the deal table. can the latest lifeline save the struggling retailer? on options action, a credit decline. we'll get one regional bank as cracks in consumer purchases start to crack. we have more "fast money", right after this.
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welcome back to weyerhaeuser three, shares of kohl's is raising 5% after a report that oak strait illustrate is looking to get the retailers property, and have the company leaseback those locations or those stores. it was in talks to be acquires by french as franchise groups. they wanted to finance that
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deal. you know, retail lease backs and retail seem to be very popular when a company is in distress. in the long run, i'm not really sure it doesn't much for shareholders. today, it has supported their stock when the tables are down. what do you make of this news? >> what we are seeing is, they had a deal that fell through. this is the second way they are able to raise cash. what we will see from kohl's as they have the capital to be able to restructure things. this is a sector that will struggle a bit more than other sectors in the economy. this will give them short-term moves to put more money into e commerce, this is what people are so optimistic about right now. this is very early on. people were optimistic when there would be a deal earlier, and it didn't happen. i would caution a bit, this is
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a rumor, not the news. we did reach out to them, with no official comment. if you look at the transcripts from a couple weeks ago, they talked about how they are looking at it. the climate is changing. i would point out, the activists involved in this has also been involved in big lots and bed bath and beyond. they have done smaller leaseback opportunities. the share prices of those companies are down for civet asleep since then. what you make of this news? does this give you any excitement about wanting to jump in to kohl's, if this does anything financially for them? >> sure. i am excited about two things, liquidity and flexibility. it gives them options. you look at the stock performance at 40% or more. that tells you all you need to know about what investors think in terms of what the
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existential situation is going into this news. it is likely the second option in terms of shoring up their balance sheet. at least this is a presumed lifeline to allow them to make the needed moves to pivot and build a better business. >> at headline, i think it is a positive. to courtney's point, this is more the rumor than the news. once this thing manifests and shows itself to be true, that is when he was he does options play out. >> those shares are below $30. at one point, there was an offer for 64. the ceo says it was not a full offer that was ready to be executed. etf has fallen 13% since its august ties. the chair master says it might be due for a rebound now. let's get to the charts with carter. what do you see here? this is an interesting set up. we know this is essentially the market on steroids. the beauty of this is it is
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equal weight. the consumer discretionary sector, the top three, amazon, tesla, and home depot all are on the same chart. we have three iterations. we know it hit the peak on november 16. the market peak agenda report. we know it bottomed out on june 30 and the market bottomed out on july 17. this is checked back. i have drawn the arrow that way. let's look at the next iteration. it is the same chart. is checked back to the uptrend line since june 30. the final chart is the first two combined. to put this in context. this has declined from the peak of 45%. it has bounced off of the low of 32%. in turn, it has given back down 18% from its august peak.
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we are to the trendline. we can probably trade this for a bounce. >> i do like the details about the waiting, and all of the beta moves that can be made and understood about the retail etf. we will see you in a couple of minutes for options action. let's trade this one. tim, what you make of the xrt? do you think this is poised for a rebound? stomach it is hard to argue with carter's charts. they did nothing through covid 19. i think they go lower. i think the pressure on consumer continues lower. it is nice that this is equal weighted. get exposure to consumer staples to walmart, target, and places that have fallen on trouble. xrt has not performed for years. i am a seller. >> we will talk about consumer
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cracks coming up later. markets were down this week. nobody told this stock, surging 25% is monday. is there room for it to run? do not forget to stay tuned for back to business. we are diving into what the return to work and the office could mean for the economy and businesses. that is coming up at 6:00 p.m. you are watching "fast money", live from times square. we are back in two minutes. you can be well-mannered. (man) oh, no, no, after you. wahoooo! (vo) you can be well-groomed. or even well-spoken. (man) ooooooo. (vo) but there's just something about being well-adventured. (vo) adventure has a new look. discover more in the all-new subaru forester wilderness.
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welcome back to fast money. [ indiscernible ] is soaring 25% since monday. look at this, the stock is up 49% since memorial day. this makes it the top nasdaq performer of the summer. there are still risks to investing in china. u.s. state department improved $1.1 billion in arms sales to taiwan. what you make of the run of this name? stomach the second headline scares me a lot. the ability to counter amazon, some of the trade they had, that was a high-quality beat. i think there is a tailwind for adrs coming from some settlement on the accounting issues. this headline with taiwan, we are ratcheting up the pressure here. i don't like it. to make the geo political tensions, the hostility, is not getting lower. >> that headline will affect
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the entire market. it's not just the china related names. this stock in particular, they started off as an agricultural online retailer. that aspect can separate them from the other e-commerce names. this looks to be overextended right now. i would not buy this year. i do agree, the geopolitical risk is huge for the market. to make a quick comment from you, courtney? there is a lot of concern that they have a lot of competition. they have to compete with amazon and the two day delivery. i would argue, they are different from their competitors. they don't have anybody that is bringing agriculture from the farmers to consumers. that puts them in an interesting position. it is something to watch. will get some new members in the s&p. we have imitation homes jumping as companies are joining the
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benchmark s&p 500. they are replacing pen entertainment, moving to the s&p 400. it is time for final trade. let's go around the horn. it was fast today. first of all, have a great labor day weekend. walmart is the retail name i want to own. since announcing the guy down, this is one of the best stocks in the market, even during a miserable couple of weeks. this is their time to sign and shine. i'm going starbucks. happy labor day weekend to everybody here. this starts the beginning of all. you will hear about pumpkin spice latte. they did name a new ceo. i do love that. how about you for final trade? >> as courtney pointed out, i will stay true to form, the fed says they will induce pain, i am looking for treatment. xle, stick with healthcare.
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take us home going into labor day weekend. i bought a stock, next-gen energy. we pointed out the uranium stocks. this is an under the radar play. i think this will be a big sector to watch going forward. it is not just in japan, but india will have a megadeal in that space as well. we have a good variety here. that does it for "fast money". options action is coming up next. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪
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right now on options action, the stocks close deep in the red. the major averages are on a three-day losing streak. we will drill down on where to go from here. also, the next big reveal for apple with an iphone event. we chart the next move for the technology giant. we look back at lulu lemon, up 6% on the back of earnings. the professor is here with what you should do next. we're taking your tweets and helping you risk less and make more. i'm courtney reagan and fo
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