thank you very much. that does it for "the exchange." do not forget you can catch us tonight. we're talking more about energy 6:00 p.m. for our cnbc special, energy emergency, check it out for now i'll send it over to "power lunch." >> thank you, brian, welcome to "power lunch." i'm seema mody in for kelly evans. here is what's ahead stocks are falling today as the september swoon continues. all three major averages are lower right now. if the nasdaq stays in the red, that would mark seven losing sessions in a row. that is the longest losing streak in six years. is there more downside ahead and risk for stocks? we're going to talk about that. we'll also be joined by a power player tillman fertita will be here to tell us what he's seeing in his businesses, inflation, the labor shortage, consumer spending. we'll cover it all. >> thank you very much welcome to "power lunch," i'm tyler mathisen

stocks have once again turned lower after briefly peaking into the green. as seema mentioned, the nasdaq is the one to watch trying to snap a six-session losing streak down 8% over that time right now as you see, it is off about 3/4 of a point today we're seeing declines in media and entertainment stocks not notably, warner brothers, it's all one company now, among the worst performers on the s&p 500. alternative energy stocks, they are higher and expanding a distribution deal over in europe, and next era upgraded by morgan stanley on hopes for hyde genjennifer tejad hyd hydrogen our next guest is bracing for further rate hikes he says inflation poses the greatest risk to risk assets joining us with his outlook for the market and some top picks, chief investment strategist at janney, montgomery, scott. what do you think the fed will

do are you in the idea that they're going to raise by 3/4 of a point or a half a point? they do seem sort of hell bent on crushing inflation. >> well, they really do, tyler, and i think the old adage, don't fight the fed is certainly in play at the moment they seem to make it very clear, particularly jay powell's brief speech at jackson hole, that their commitment is unconditional, and they're willing to cause some pain in both households and the economy relative to loosening up labor conditions to relieve demand from the swamping supply and therefore provide a release valve, if you will, for the elevated inflation ratings we're seeing so i do worry that as a consequence of their effort to do that, unless what we've seen recently, giving some evidence that inflation is receding off its peak levels doesn't develop as a pattern or come down as requ quickly as the fed would like to see, then they're going to keep on their campaign to raise hikes

and talk of 3/4, 4% is a no nontrivial risk with the markets. >> with that in mind with an inverted yield curve in mind, is there any way we avoid a recession over the next 6 to 12 months >> well, i think there is a path for that, tyler. however, it's exceedingly narrow obviously one only has to look at the labor market as evidence of the fact that employers continue to hire the jolts survey shows that job openings outnumber employment two to one we continue to see employment ranks increase that's good news also the fact that the labor force participation rate actually rose giving some evidence that perhaps the wage gains that the fed would be concerned about may also help to subside inflation readings collectively like we saw this morning, the consumers still are well endowed and more inclined

not to continue spending and in that environment perhaps we can overcome the threat of two type of fed policy may thwart what is still a nontrivial risk of a recession, and as a consequence allow for this so-called soft landing to occur. >> that's one of the big questions is how much more pain do we need to see in the labor market for the fed to get inflation down to its 2% target. we are one week away from the next cpi report, which will tell us whether inflation has, in fact, cooled, similar to what we saw in july or if it, in fact, is continuing to be -- continuing to get worse than expected with that in mind, treasuries we're seeing some of the highest yields in years. would you be a believer in shifting some of your capital away from equities and into fixed income >> well, seema, we've advocated reducing equity exposure to a level that is congruent with one's risk budget. in other words, target weight on equities within a balanced portfolio, and to diversify including sectors like energy,

which has its own idiosyncratic tailwind along with more defensive sectors as the play book would suggest you would into an economic slowdown. having said that, i think with yields having backed up the way they have toll 334, there may be some offerings or opportunities within the fixed income market that would allow for perhaps some of that capital to be treated better if, in fact, we see this evolution of the economic slowdown come to pass, evening if we avert a recession which suggests that yields from these levels should in that environment, at least in the longer term maturity spectrum work their way lower. >> we'll leave the conversation there. we appreciate you joining us today with the dow down 157 points >> thank you let's turn to energy, europe's energy crisis escalating and the worst is still to come. that's according to the ceo of german gas giant uniper who warned with a broken relationship with gazprom after

russia suspended supply to europe indefinitely in response to economic sanctions. adding fuel to the fire opec will cut production by 100,000 barrels a day just one month after it pledged to increase production by the same amount. let's talk about it with chris wright, he is the ceo of liberty energy to discuss the european escalating crisis around energy. chris, to many this is clearly an indication that russia is seeking to force europe to lift economic measures. the question is will it work do you think the europeans will cave in. >> i don't know if they'll cave. i think the temptation will be strong the cutting of the gas on nord stream 1 is just a massive move. natural gas is the largest source of electricity in europe by a fair margin it's the dominant fuel for industry and home heating, and via fertilizer, it's the most important ingredient for agriculture. this is a significant threat to society in europe. it's going to be a rough winter.

>> and what does this mean for the u.s. i mean, many people would say this is just a european problem. we are seeing natural gas prices continue to hit historic highs brent crude now above $90 a barrel california weighing the option of potential blackouts as it deals with this new heat wave. >> absolutely. there is rimpple effects and as the european industry shuts down, a good part of their industry will shut down this winter that's inflationary effects across the industry. if russia plays politics with cutting back oil experts, we could see oil prices double from where they are today so yeah, these things have global ramifications. >> so what do we do? >> well, the best thing we can do -- and we're marching slowly in that way -- is to increase our ability to export natural gas. united states passed russia as the largest source of natural gas in europe but there's only so much lng we can send to europe with our existing infrastructure

with more pipelines and more lng export terminals we can send a lot more natural gas. >> that's years from now, it's not going to help this winter. >> that's years from now that's absolutely true that's a long to a medium term proble problem. in the short-term, we certainly want to ncourage more oil production in the united states and natural gas iquids we can send propane on tankers today. so more natural gas liquids, more oil out of the united states that keeps a little bit of a lid on this energy crisis that, frankly, has been brewing for years. putin didn't start it. he's just capitalizing on it >> let me ask -- let me ask you this do you think -- i think seema sort of got at it there a moment ago. do you think the weaponization of energy by russia is going to lead to a fracturing of the coalition that has heretofore stood rather resolutely against

russia with respect to ukraine >> well, at some level it already has, tyler germany is giving less economic aid to ukraine than estonia. so the germans are not all in in defending ukraine. they're not -- they're on ukra ukrainians' side but they're not doing a lot. they're trying to not look provocative to russia. it hasn't worked clearly, but the united states, the united kingdom, the dominant suppliers have stood steadfastly behind ukraine. this is against russia's interests. things aren't going well for russia i think the end of the day russia becomes five years, ten years from now, russia's sort of a client state commodity supplier to china and surreptitiously to the rest of asia, but this is a change in world geopolitical alignment that we are seeing unfold right now. >> so what's the answer here does the u.s. just continue to lean more on the middle east you know, we had a headline this morning that u.s. reserves of crude oil have now fallen to the lowest level since 1984.

>> that's a domestic problem we're by far the largest producer of oil and natural gas in the world we are a net exporter of oil and the second largest after russia exporter of natural gas in the world. so the u.s.'s energy situation is mostly in our own hands just a slightly less obstructive policies in the united states, an ability to build more pipelines and more energy infrastructure in the united states would build confidence and would spur growth in more u.s. oil and natural gas production we're going to be a winner out of this geopolitical alignment with our local domestic sources of energy from oil to natural gas to natural gas liquids, but we -- you know, to be a bigger winner, we've got to avoid the hostility towards hydrocarbons that's what got europe in this position to begin with and not go down that road of expansive unreliable energy, that ends up exporting your industries overseas we're kind of headed in the

wrong direction, but it's far from too late to change tack. >> chris, we'll have to leave the conversation there always great perspective we appreciate your time, chris wright, ceo of liberty energy. and be sure to catch our cnbc special, energy emergency hosted by brian sullivan tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern. coming up, "power lunch," the biden administration making big moves this summer. the inflation reduction act. student loan forgiveness the midterm elections right around the corner, but will voters have money on their minds or will soecial issues dominate their decision-making. the dollar continuing to strengthen 24-year high against the yen. what it all means for markets and your money. plus, our power player tillman fertitta wil, we'll get view on the ecom wt ony,hahe sees from his businesses "power lunch" will be right back >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by pimco, a global

leader in active fixed income.

welcome back to "power lunch," we are in the home stretch to the midterm elections. labor day marks that home stretch's beginning, about two months away now. democrats planning to tout their pro-business agenda to sway voters ylan mui joins us now with more. >> hi, tyler, you're right campaign season is now officially underway, and democrats are kicking it off in part by celebrating some big corporate investments in key

swing states the big one, of course, is intel. on friday, president biden plans to attend the ground breaking for the company's $20 billion facility in ohio, which he promised would create thousands of jobs with six figure salaries but that's not the only one. treasury secretary janet yellen will travel to michigan and north carolina this month to talk about clean energy. the administration's been touting toyota's new $2.5 billion ev battery plant in the tar heel state, and in arizona where democratic senator mark kelly is fighting to hold onto his seat, corning is building a new fiberoptic plan as at&t looks to expand internet service there. that plan is scheduled to open in 2024 and create 250 jobs. now, on the trail you're still going to hear candidates talk about how corporate america needs to pay its fair share in taxes, but that fight is basically over for now in washington instead, democrats are framing these investments as the fruits of their legislative victories like the chips act, the

inflation reduction act and that infrastructure law that passed about a year ago democrats want to show voters that they can work with businesses and bring home jobs ahead of the november elections. back over to you. >> fascinating, ylan, thank you. for more on the mid materialterms, two months away. libby, you say the odds are still in favor of the republicans winning the house, but you say the senate is looking increasingly difficult tell us why. >> that's right, and good afternoon. yeah, so usually the party out of power does typically does pretty well in the midterm elections. on average the party out of power wins 26 seats in the house, four seats in the senate. that's since world war ii. however, and a big however here. in the senate, particularly given some of the dynamics and battleground states such as pennsylvania, wisconsin, arizona, ohio, the candidate

selection matters a lot, and what we're seeing here in terms of sort of the polling on the ground is that democrats are actually doing quite a bit better now, with the big caveat that we are, you know, nine weeks before the general election so a lot can change, and if passes prologue usually republicans improve in what's called the generic ballot, but at this point the senate does look like it, you know, kind of leans democratic now, i think the bottom line for investors, though, is even if indica democrats are able to keep the senate, they will not be able to have a filibuster proof majority whichever party controls the is that the will be a very thin majority from a policy perspective, it doesn't change all that much, but again, democrats are doing quite a bit better at least in the polling than they were say may or june. >> let's talk about the issues that you think will define these races for house and senate weapon know inflation is a big

one. we know gas prices are very easy to fwgrasp onto, but they've ben coming down. we know the country's direction. are we going in the right direction or wrong direction that's one but there is also the overturning of roe versus wade as you rank these issues in terms of how telling or important they will be and who controls these two chambers, how would you rank the issues? >> yeah, look, tyler, i mean, voters still very much care about the direction of the economy, about inflation there's sort of this axiom in politics, gas and groceries. voters see a gallon of gas, they see a gallon of milk every week usually, so those very much loom large for voters, and that's, you know, why i think the conventional wisdom in may and june was that democrats would do quite poorly because inflation, of course, gas and grocery prices were up then. now that you see those, though,

retreating and they still are, you know, quite high historically speaking, but you see those retreating and then very importantly you see some of these social policy issues, particularly the overturning of roe v. wade, and that sort of recasts the election as not so much a referendum against the democrats, but more as a choice between democrats and republicans. and that very much benefits, you know, democrats. so in terms of kind of the issues for sure inflation and the economy still very much matter, but again, some of these social policy issues have become much more important, particularly for some blocks of voters that are very important, especially suburban women who are sort of the, you know, quintessential swing voter they helped get joe biden elected but they also have helped some republicans get elected as well. so kind of all eyes will be on that group. >> and i failed to mention crime

and gun violence in that list of various issues which are also obviously percolating and very much a part of sadly our society right now, the violence. all right, shall we leave it there on ha happy note, libby, great to see you. >> thanks so much, tyler nice to see you. >> nice to see you we'll see you again before election time. here's what's further ahead on the program today's working lunch, we highlight the cybersecurity firm ok ta, that stock struggling down 32% this month. plus, verizon has raised its dividend for the 16th consecutive year, but with the stock down 20% this year, is this a yield trap? that and more in today's three stock lunch. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers

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welcome back to "power lunch," a major hit today for the spac attempting to take over donald trump's social media startup. digital world acquisition falling about 16% today. it's trying to get shareholders to approve an extra year to complete the tedeal today it adjourned the shareholder meeting after two minutes saying it will keep counting votes

let's now get to eamon javers for a cnbc news update. good afternoon. >> hey there, seema. juul labs says its $439 million settlement with 34 states and territories is a significant step towards resolving accusations its marketing was targeting young people juul still fatesces nine suits o other states. president biden will be heading to detroit tomorrow to highlight what the white house calls an electric vehicle manufacturing boom in the united states he began a meeting with his cabinet, he plans to speak with liz truss, britain's new prime minister later today. beachgoers enjoying labor day on the jersey shore gathered for an unusual site. a man who bought a sailboat three weeks ago said he put it on auto pilot as he went below deck to use the toilet the auto pilot shut off beaching the boat around 4:00 a.m. monday morning. right on the sand there. it was towed away hours later.

one curious onlooker told a reporter that she likes to watch people but watching a beached boat is even better. back to you. >> a mistake he probably won't make twice. >> end of the summer anyway, right? >> end of the summer story thank you very much. appreciate it. ahead on "power lunch," power player, tilman fertitta with inflation, we'll look at how his businesses are dealing with it and ask if the economy or the consumer is actually slower rs slower. plus, what's not slowing right now, the dollar, higher against the euro, the yen and even the pound, we'll look at what it could mean for some of ow lch wreacinational names. "perun,"e' bk two.

90 minutes left in the trading day. we want to get you caught up on the markets, stocks, bonds, commodities and a look at the consumer with power player tilman fertitta. let's first take a look at how stocks are faring. we're off the lows of the day. the dow down 133 points. nasdaq currently down about a half a percentage point. so we are off the lows of the session. let's go to the bond market where yields are continuing to rise with two-year yields now at

the highest level since 2007 rick santelli here with a look at why bonds are moving so much. rick >> yes indeed. as a matter of fact, you have it, november of 2007, you see it on the chart here we are up 11 basis points, a whisker under 3.5% and one of the reasons, of course, is that the fed in september is most likely going to raise 3/4 of 1% could be the third 3/4 point increase in a row, and the market is making its adjustment. and the curve is steepening today because it isn't the two-year yield that are zooming ahead fastest, it's long dated treasuries the right now you're looking at seven-year and ten-year up 15 basis points as you see on this chart starting in june because we are still getting close but not quite ready to take off that june 14th high yield close just a bit below 3.5% for the ten-year

yield. the curve has steepened about three basis points and come a long way, steepening might not be the exact correct terminology. how about less inverted, especially if you're looking at 2s to 10s, now it isn't only in the u.s. all yields are going up, but maybe in the uk where the energy crisis is really coming to a head, well, it's ten-year closed around 3.10. that's the highest in ten years, and if we look at the foreign exchange markets, dollar is king the dollar index on pace for another fresh 20-year high close, and if we look at the component parts, 1985, we're getting very close to level in the pound versus dollar that we haven't seen since the mid-80s that will be close to 40 years and if you look at the euro versus the dollar, definitely on pace for a low finally, the dollar yen today on pace for another in a row, fresh 24-year low close against the

dollar, and all this, of course, is happening for a variety of reasons. energy crisis in europe and u.s. interest rates are moving up aggressively back to you. >> all these historic milestones being hit. thank you for summing it up. oil closing for the day, it's been a volatile session as opec cuts production gazprom pipeline remains offline. pippa stevens with the details. >> it's been a pivotal few days for the energy market, starting with oil, opec, and its allies agreed to cut production by 100,000 barrels per day beginning in october this is not a meaningful amount. as rbc noted, it's important because it signals the group's willingness to respond to price dynamics or as the firm put it active market management brent crude is down 3% wti is flat on the sessionment the difference in those moves is because wti didn't have a settlement price yesterday, so it is trading against friday's

levels now, moving over to gas, gazprom shutting down flows through the nord stream 1 pipeline indefinitely that sent prices jumping yesterday, although the contract is now down. but still winter is coming with the firm predicting one of europe's most challenging few months in decades. u.s. natural gas also tumbling down about 7%. production is up and an early start to heating season is being challenged, seema, by warmer temperatures back to you. >> i'll take it from there thanks very much pi pippa. from inflation to the potential for a slowdown, a lack of workers, supply chain issues, it deals with all of them in hotels, and restaurants, it's tilman fertitta back with us now. that you think, tillman for joining us we appreciate it. >> hey, tyler, that sounded pretty negative. we have some good news >> i'm going to ask you just to tell me how business is by segment, by region, by type of

business >> so it's really interesting. high end is off a little bit, but tourism is up because we didn't have the european traveler last year, and we didn't have traveling near as much as we do this year. so that's all kind of up a lot, and now that high end because of all the ppp money, most people have spent it all at our high end restaurants, and so that's a little off now, but overall sales are really strong. we continue to be extremely busy, but then we go into all those negatives that you just said and natural gas, you know, has been at an all-time high, so our energy costs alone were up -- was up over a million dollars just in august and of course hourly wages are up over 10% compared to last year there is no need for minimum

wage anymore it's way, way above where people ever wanted minimum wage then you have the energy that everybody who delivers something to you puts a surcharge on it. so costs are high. it's exactly kind of what you said, but yet business is still good casinos, business is good. >> go ahead. >> casinos business is good. >> so let me ask you about that. when you see rising prices of the inputs like food and other things, do you have pricing power to put it through? in other words, i'm going to restaurants and i'm seeing most in the higher end restaurants, the steak is now $65 minimum on its way to 100 for some cuts do you have pricing power to do it >> let me just say this. i think we're running out of pricing power, and part of the reason that you're same-store sales is so up is because of

pricing power over the last 12 and 18 months. but at the same time, everybody's wages are a lot more but you're right, at a high end restaurant now, you can order an eight or ten ounce fillet and be paying $65 but remember, we're paying $25 for that steak, and then we have the waiter that delivers it costs so much, and the cook that cooks it, and occupancy has gone through the roof for restaurants. any decent restaurant location now is 5 and $600,000 a year just in rent so costs continue to rise, but business is good >> tilman, it's seema, i was curious in the latest august jobs report, we saw the hospitality sector add around 31,000 jobs, which was less than business services, health care, and retail what are you seeing on the labor front? is it still hard to find new workers, or is that easing >> i'll continue to say when you go into a restaurant today, you

should always expect good food, but service is not going to be what it was. i got a report on friday that we're short 250 managers and 2,800 hourlies, okay that's for 500 restaurants okay, so just take that and that's what it takes to operate when you're full on a typical night, and so there's a tremendous shortage. a lot of people have just left the industry i don't know what they're doing, but they've definitely left the industry and realized, you know what we can't even get people to go work 9:00 to 6:00 monday through friday, so how do you think hospitality people think when they say, wait, why am i working at 9:00 on saturday night? why am i working on christmas day? so i think a lot of people have just left the industry and are not coming back. >> why do you think that is if you point out earlier and it's true that wages have gone up

is that the only lever you have to get people to come back is to pay them more and more and more but at some point you can't? >> well, we are paying them more and more and more, but go back to what i just said, tyler, is that people learn not to work and go to work every day it was all about today all the wall street firms telling everybody to come back to work in new york and all over the country. so think about a waiter who doesn't want to work or a cook who doesn't want to work at 8:0 on a saturday night when all their friends are going out. they're finding other things to do so they don't have to work when everybody else is out playing. >> you raised something that i wanted to get to, and since you opened the door, i'll go there, and that is what has your policy been -- obviously you have a lot of hourly workers who have to be in place to do the job but in your -- i call them back

office functions, what has your policy been on return to office? how are you handling it? >> we never left the office, okay >> well, you are in texas, so i guess that's -- >> right, that's where our corporate office is, and that's kind of -- we kind of followed the state and but at the same time we've had an extremely good, productive two and a half years because we were in the office and i'm not saying that if you're not in the office you're not, and let me tell you something, i believe that when somebody has something personal to do, especially mothers need to be at their kids' functions, dads have got to be at their kids' soccer and baseball games and football games, i believe in family lifestyle companies and i'm one of them, but also expect you to be in the office every day to work. >> yeah, i think those of us who work in tv, we agree with you. this peak inflation narrative, tilman has gotten some traction

in recent days, especially with the drop we've seen in gasoline prices we're down about 20% compared to early summer what are your thoughts has inflation peaked >> it sure looks like it has peaked, and we sure hope that it's peaked because you're going to see it's been a great summer, okay so now we're going to see, you know, october, november, december, september, what's going to really happen now, remember we're going to do better than last year in the fourth quarter because of the fact that if you remember, we had an omicron scare, and so you're going to look at same-store sales and they're going to be good produce and products, your proteins and everything seem to be flat right now except for prime, okay? but what's going to happen is your labor costs are still so high, so look for sales to be good, labor to be up, you're going to see, i think, strong sales in the fourth quarter from

all consumer businesses, but the profitability is going to probably be the same or a little less even though we're doing a lot more business. >> interesting, very interesting, tilman, as always, we appreciate your time. >> thanks, guys. >> you bet rngts jon fortt will be bringing us his interview with the ceo of cybersecurity firm okta. we'll be right back. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work >> announcer: the bond report is brought you by pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. s designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

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enterprise software stocks still under pressure after an earnings season that saw more companies report delays in closing deals. this week jon fortt brings us an up close with one ceo who says he's learned to be clear when there are problems jon. >> hey, seema, todd mckin non is cofounder at okta. okta fell hard after he said the company was having trouble digesting a recent acquisition todd has faced operational trouble before in okta's early days, and he says it forced him to change his approach which had been to project that he had everything totally under control.

>> that second year in the job at okta, my instinct was -- my instinct was show no weakness, show no problems because if this company has problems, it's my fault. i'm the ceo i'm the founder, i shouldn't have let it have problems. that instinct turned out to be totally wrong. the right thing to do is team, here are a lot of problems and there are a lot of them. and i have confidence in you as co-owners of this to help us get through them and my first reaction was that's going to scare everyone away. it did scare a few people away there are some people who build out on okta during that second year, but it an amazing, being open and transparent and showing them the situation we were in and showing them the possible ways out of it and some of the risks was galvanizing for the rest of us. >> when i spoke to mckinnon on tech check earlier this week, some of that mind-set was on display, even though the quarterly results mostly beat expectations, he pulled in revenue projections saying some salespeople were leaving, which

had slowed momentum. >> yeah, we have had a little bit higher than average attrition in the sales team, and that is driving some of the near-term mixed results. i think when you look at the quarter, though, i think there are salespeople being successful at okta. we had a record number of million plus deals in the quarter. we had great customer retention. which is really emblematic of customer success is 120% plus. there's a lot of success going on, but when you think about trying to reach this new buyer and bringing two sales forces together in service of trying to broaden that appeal in the c suite of every organization in the world, that's challenging and a little more challenging than we thought it would be. we're going to work through those issues and move forward. >> he was also an early executive at salesforce rising to head of engineering at one point. he learned from marc benioff how leaders are talk about the future even though it doesn't exist yet in a way that motivates the team to move forward, given the choppy economic waters we're in, he's probably going to need both the

transparency and the vision to mauve on from here, guys. >> yeah, i was curious, john, tl there was a note from guggenheim that really laid it out. they said okta is a company in disarray as mckinnon mentioned to you, salesforce attrition at historically high levels they talked about how the cofounder and ceo is take ago year sabbatical, their chief project officer is departing what is he doing really to turn around the company over the next three months >> now, seema, todd would argue that that net revenue retention number shows that people who were paying companies that were paying for the product a year ago are paying that and more now, which shows product quality and customer satisfaction, so he would argue that the product isn't broken also, they have some security issues earlier this year, you might remember the company's arguing that they're hearing about this less and less from customers and that's had no quantifiable impact on revenue. he's arguing that maybe some of the problems have been blown up

to be more than they are, but of course the street's going to continue watching that from here. >> what is okta's edge in what is increasingly becoming a crowded security and authentication marketplace >> tyler, i would say it's focusing on identity versus historically the security market has been trying to -- well, not trying to, but has ended up in its pitch sort of being more fear-based well, you know, if you don't install this, here's what's going to happen. okta's sort of unique approach from how it started is this is really about managing the identities of people in the organization, who's allowed to access what. it's a little bit more proactive about productivity versus being about fear >> all right, jon, thank you very much. jon fortt, appreciate it coming up, the biggest dufd p dividend payer in the dow, the stock that could rally 100%. that's a double your money all ahead on three stock lunch

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welcome back, everybody. time for three stock lunch some of today's biggest head liners, verizon, on the day it named itself verizon i didn't know better. it used to be bell atlantic. raising its dividend, 16th

consecutive year and extended its lead as the highest yielding dow stock. fedex moving lower following a downgrade at citi. macro pressures could impact growth stifel its buy on nor he wee began cruise lines saying the stock could survive -- serve up nearly 100% surge following recent weakness. here to trade them craig johnson, managing director, chief technician at piper sandler. let's start with verizon high dividend, raising it again. it is 25% lower than when it began the year. >> tyler, you look at the stock and it's clear looking at the chart you're still making lower lows and highs in here the stock is sitting at a 52-week low. the dfbds is attractive, but again, at this point in time we have to see the chart sort of set its footing in here before you can get excited and verizon's stock.

from my perspective, you have to avoid this name until we can find support in the shares itself, tyler. >> what about fedex? shares are down about 21% this year. >> so when you look at fedex it's sort of consolidating in the upper end of the range, 240, lower end is 200 from our perspective, the stock is getting over sold i really want to see some sort of indication that at the very lower end of this range, that the stock is going to kind of bounce and start the rally off the lower end of the range we are below a declining 50, 200-day moving average the best you can hope for is an oversold bounce at the lower end of the trading and consolidation range for fedex. >> let's move to number three would be norwegian cruise line, what do you think here >> norwegian cruise lines, it's been sort of a tough stock at this point in time down 36 year to date. widely under performing.

many of the broader averages in the market at this point here's the thing, i see a glimmer of hope here, that the stock is now starting to make an emerging sort of new uptrend here in the shares and if you look at that uptrend and you compare it to where the long-term resistance comes into play, that's around 1650 from my perspective, looking at where we are now you could probably see a nice trade back up to 16.50, around 20 and change upside from here and looks among the most attractive among the three stocks today for lunch. >> and the stock is up today on a note from stifel, upgrading the stock to buy following a launch of a new ship in comparison to royal and carnival you would pick norwegian or is there a better buy within the space >> i think norwegian is fine at this point in time a lot of names look the same there's been amounts of adding of debt to the balance sheet to keep these companies afloat, shall we say, during the

pandemic, and they've diluted their companies quite a bit. overall they look about the same i think norwegian or royal among the two more constructive of the kind of big three names out there. >> let's widen out our lens and get your thought on the market generally down 212 points on the dow right now, as we have begun september which is seasonally not a particularly good month, neither is october what do you see between now and year end >> all i'm seeing and hearing from people at this point in time is a tremendous amount of negativity i haven't seen investors this negative on the market in some time, and i can understand why they are negative. the challenges that you have in europe, the downturn we've seen in the broader markets here today, the interest rates that have been going higher, the curve that is inverted, all these things, but here's the thing i find interesting is that market is reflecting a lot of this some of the indicators we've looked at they're tremendously oversold there are levels we rarely see

over the last 50 years and when i see levels this low, i start leaning into the negativity and this is where i want to start buying things. no change to my year-end objective of 4775. >> i was going to ask as you started to answer, all that negativity a good thing and you answered it. as always, great to see you. >> thank you up next, we will put the surging dollar under the microscope what it means for your investment that cin'somg up le in your defense; look at the size of that- gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! is that a goat?! you talkin' about me? gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! i think this goat is saying “gap.” must be talking about the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. so who's talking about the money aflac pays to help close that gap? gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! aflac! aflac! gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! it's about to go down, baby! aflac! aflac! stop that goat! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com

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welcome back let's talk about the historic moves in the currency market and what it means for your money as the federal reserve tightens, japan continues to ease. that's why we're seeing the yen at a 24-year low against the u.s. dollar. analysts say that could challenge u.s. companies with exposure to japan. we looked through fact set, ww granger with 13% of its revenue, made in japan, viteon, and nordson and allison transmission, some of the names to keep an eye on. they collect revenue in japan, so what happens when the dollar is stronger is they -- when they convert that back to dollars, you're basically bringing in less revenue it's not just japan. the uk currency at a 24-year low against the u.s. dollar as the economy there softens and inflation remains at the highest in decades u.s. companies with exposure to the uk according to goldman sachs mining with 69% revenue

generated there, ebay and etsy with high exposure to the uk the weaker currency pressuring uk equities, not so much the ftse that tracks nationals, but the ftse 250 which tracks the domestic companies that tells the story you'll see nearly 20% so far this year. the euro certainly challenged by all of this trading at a 20-year low against the u.s. dollar as we await the european central bank to make a decision on interest rates this thursday the expectation is 50 to 75 >> the euro parody to the dollar makes it easy traveling there. if it's $500 it's 500 euros basically. u.s. companies doing business in europe or in england or japan are bringing back fewer dollars for each transaction. >> this becomes a headwind for all of these multinationals. it really questions whether

diversification makes sense in an environment where central banks are not on the same page. >> yeah. all right. falling dollar is better for multi nationals who want to get more dollars back when they bring them back. thanks for watching "power lunch". >> "closing bell" begins right now. a volatile day for stocks with a 400-point swing in the dow. the most important hour of trading starts now i'm sara eisen take a look at where we stand in the market, down 200 points in the dow. low of the day was 270 high of the day as you can see, we tried a few attempts earlier in the session, up 145 points. these negative reversals are becoming a theme lately. the s&p 500 down 0.4%. it's helped by the defensive stocks which are higher on the day. groups like real estate, utilities and health care. the nasdaq is under performing as treasur