it is critical where it goes next. >> it is a source of funding, there is a lot of performance that could come out of it. there has been a tendency for the stock to be a bit soft on these iphone announcements. >> our poll says it will go to $140 before 170. that is santoli's last word. fast money is next. right now we have an energy war . it is at russia's morand energy across the european union and around the world. the ripple effects of the political endgame is coming up straightahead. then netflix and killed? a host of other media companies are falling hard today. we will take a look at where the sector is sliding. then, revving up an ipo for porsche.

and the countdown to the very big reveal. i am dominic in for melissa tonight. we are out of the code conference in california. it was a down day over all with the seventh consecutive day of declines. of the dow giving up a gain of nearly 150 points and then closing down more than 170 points. the s&p is nearly 10% off its august type. the yield on 10 year treasury notes soared to the highest number in nearly 3 months. 3.36% over there about. the 30 year is at 3.51 and that is the highest since 2014., the fed made dean to continue and

this is the energy crisis in europe that threatens to bleed into other markets. so, are the clouds overhanging the market only going to get darker? like they are outside? tim. >> first of all, welcome. you mentioned the seven day rule. jerome powell said, to reset. we have put the energy crisis front and center. and we have -- that may move ahead of the fed and people are starting to evaluate where we could start to have a sovereign. we talked about that the second quarter. things were almost too good. i think positioning in the

professional community means incredibly light cash and record shorts in the nasdaq and triple q. so, people are prepared for this but is difficult to see the stormy clouds get out of here. >> karen, tim bring up an excellent point. it was very clear that the fed chair, jerome powell talked about being aggressive and it has been bad ever sense but it is less bad than it was in the two days or three days around that ackson hole conference. do you think that people are getting more comfortable with the idea that this is a reevaluation? or will this be another test? >> all of us on this desk, it was not a surprise that he came out hawkish. what was was that the market was shocked by the hawkishness.

i feel like, normally i am kind of cautious. i actually bought some things and sold some things. it is always darkest after --. >> but what about the dawn? >> well, i looked at that. >> you are still good. >> i can hear her loud and clear. so, guy, if that is the situation and we have a notion where this is going to be one of those darkest before the dawn type moments, it doesn't feel that way. >> the panic to me over the last six months, basically since november, the panic i have seen is on the upside. maybe it is my dogma talking but i don't think it is. the tense point, i don't think

we have seen anything that appears to be capitulation. in terms of the storm clouds getting darker, i think they are just going to hang around a lot longer. i think they will be her for a while. nobody believed the fed but we are conditioned to think they are going to come to our rescue. it is not going to happen this time. they have bigger fish to fry and i think the market will be collateral damage. >> dan, where the rubber meets the road on these particular moves that we have seen predominantly to the downside have been a lot in the high growth areas. the ones over the last 10-12 years that led things higher. like netflix, alphabets, and those meta platforms formally known as facebook. what does that say about what the leadership could look like, if there is any leadership at all?

>> i think you have to segregate those prior leaders. even like mehta, that was a $9 billion market cap a year ago i think you really want to focus on, the four big ones. look at apple. it is still 20% off of the low said it made. but microsoft and alphabet are only about 5%. they are threatening to retest those summer lows so, we are going to spend some time on this tomorrow. we know that people get excited about product offerings. we have all become very used to, might apple accelerate to the downside. mike santoli just said it . that is it 2 1/2 trillion dollar market cap company that has massively out per set outperformed almost every mega cap. it gets a little old and i

think the stock market in the near term is in the hands of apple because there is not a lot of great relative strengths. utilities and markets, it seems defensive to me enough the kind of thing you want to lean into if you are playing for a bottom after the after the selloff that we have had. >> karen, i am told now that we have your microphone back. even though we could all hear her. so, the apple thing is interesting. you can argue the most important in the market but it was a massive run from the june lows that apple has made. if you got in at the right time, and this is giving you some profits to take, is there a reason that apple doesn't become the tea leaf for the canary in the mine?

>> or the atm? we talked about apple and they think that carter made an excellent call. i think it was $170. i think that is it. we are down almost 10% from that. i am not going to sell apple here to try to buy it cheaper because, then you have to make the right decision twice. i know i will be incapable of doing that so, it is a giant market and if it goes down, we will go down further but i feel like, i feel like a bottom is in sight. i thought europe will get crossed over the weekend. >> especially with those gas prices. >> exactly. guy, all of these things are pent-up. it is brick here and brick there but if all of these things are happening right now and the markets are seemingly not in panic mode. there is no capitulation.

things are drifting lower, does this then perhaps bode well for the idea that this is a reevaluation taking place? and not a flush out giving the we understand that higher interest rates are going to be here in the economy is going to slow down. people are going to change their models assuming higher risk. not panic, just down. >> that is the half-full scenario. i am inclined to be the half empty. that is probably not a good thing when you're just described. it is probably a bad thing because there will be capitulation yet to come. i don't know what the catalyst will be. it might be apple or some other announcement. the demand that we thought we would see is not there but something is going to happen. not scenario so scenario is best case. >> so,

>> we have another conversation about that happening in a few minutes. that is a point that traders have made to me in commentary on the sidelines. but that also means it could go a lot more slowly. >> how about, people don't always look at dollar yen anymore. but falling out of bed and indicating that there is a total breakdown, we know that the doj has been an outlier but, we have two or three manic things. equities are not really responding in a way that they might. i hate to sound like i am glass half empty. >> to the point from karen, were you did see the drama play out from the european side of things was certainly in the currency market.

a 5-10% move and it may not seem like a lot that it is massive when it comes to the currency market. >> and the stronger dollar is putting more pressure on the snp. >> so, let's take this to the next chapter. it is believe there is a 50-50 shot that there is a new bear market coming up. julian emanuel is the senior managing director at ever core. this is a conversation you have been listening to. it is tilted pessimistically and you say there is a 50-50 shot of a new low. >> when you think about it, the market spent june, july and part of august fighting the fed but part of the reason that jackson hole was so -- they thought, you're never going to hear him be more hawkish than that soundbite is because it

became clear that after that kind of rally, and the fed is not targeting prices. they are targeting financial conditions but they got too loose. that could change if the data begins to move in their direction. the problem today is the data moved towards the stronger direction. i want to go back to the comment that karen made. buying it right and selling it right, if you look at the last five or six weeks, what we saw on the upside and then the downside was really unprecedented only four times since 1950. the data shows that it was so extreme that sentiment is as poor that we may not make a new low. are best case is that you were going to have more volatility september and october and probably grind lower and then

ultimately we will look ahead to the first half of 2023. >> so, julian, you mentioned the stock that is in focus, in your mind, in that kind of environment where you could test the lows coming up, you maybe have a shot to the upside, where do you put the money? what type of companies? do you look at sector or growth versus value? >> again, make no bones about it, this is a defensive environment. in that kind of environment, we are tilted towards value because, even though value has worked, it is under owned. but what we really like is this idea of return of capital versus return on capital. so, companies that have very good free cash flow and you

find them across industries as well as a propensity to give that back to shareholders in dividends and stock buybacks, those are the names that you want to own. they are less volatile because they manage their own volatility. >> if you look at the idea that people put a lot into profitability, you don't want to be an unprofitable company in this kind of thing. the cash flow side of things is interesting because it does mean that the return to capital is going to be a bigger part of an investment advisor or investor thesis going forward. but doesn't matter if it will be dividend payouts or buying back shares? or do you just care that it will be positive? >> we would argue that there is a preference for buybacks because the issue with dividends is, if the yield curve is right, if all of this exporting of softness from china and europe is going to

turn us into a recession, you can't really decrease your dividend once you have made a commitment. that is a bad signal. with buybacks you have the flexibility. you do it if it makes sense and if you don't, that's okay. we think there will be a premium for that kind of flexibility. >> julian emanuel, hugo, for being here . dan nathan, we get a few takes from the table. let's go out to you in southern california. is this really about return on capital? >> i think the thing about the difficult economic environment and the volatile market environment is when you want to be careful of. with the stock market down over the last couple of weeks i think the probability of a new low is much higher than what

julian is suggesting. i just mean, it is probably going to happen in the next couple of months. but the next thing is, what do you do? you were talking about this low volatility environment. i know a lot of people have this. when we were seeing all of these storm clouds, i will want to buy u.s. treasuries. if you are telling me by the end of the year, if we have a market that is commensurate with it, you are going to want to take the petal off the metal and i think treasuries will rally. and you're going to want to own the q . i think this will lead us to the next bull market. so, q's is where i do it . when the s&p makes lower marks i start leveraging their.

coming up, a looming energy crisis in europe as russia cuts off gas supplies indefinitely. the economic impact in europe and abroad. fred kemp is joining us to break it all down. and a significant deal. cbs cvs scoops up signify health. quitn mion the $8 billion acisiocong up next. fast money, the big show is right back. whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

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biotech. this is a play on the future of what healthcare looks like. karen, is this deal a game changer for our vertically integrating cvs health. >> cbl says already integrated into lots of things like acquisitions and healthcare benefits. they are remaking the business but they are not the only ones trying to do that. we also have walgreens boost opening clinics. they are trying to get into all different parts of the business. i own cvs and it has not traded great. that i don't know if this conglomerate will help. if you are hoping for a conglomerate kind of premium, it is a discount. >> it did not really work in banking for a while. >> but it is where we are going in healthcare. 2 1/2 million unique set is what we are bringing to the

table. we have the virtual and the in store stuff. this deal, over the last month, we have known it it would be a question a price and timing and i think this is a great deal. if you look at what was going on with the cvs to, you can look at the walgreens boost. they have been under a lot of pressure. the secular dynamic for that, i think it will --. >> guy, if you look at the way that cvs has strategically placed itself, walgreens is doing the same thing and amazon is looking at it. if you were to look at the demographics and the long-term trend in healthcare, is it cvs? is it amazon? >> i go to the insurers. this environment works for them. wba, a 10 year low in the stock.

that deal that they just closed, a week or so ago, this stock is going to be looking pretty interesting just on a technical basis and a valuationk there. there is a lot more to come on the show here on fast money. here is what is coming up . europe's energy crisis. new cities locking down in china. the ripple effect of the markets around the world. three names in the trader triple play. which stocks could be a home run in your portfolio. those calls ahead. you are watching fast money live from the nasdaq target site in time sarque. we will be right back.

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welcome back to fast money. russia is cutting off energy supplies to europe in definitely . some say this is russia launching an energy board. and chinese lockdowns across the country. here to break down what this means for the markets and more, cnbc contributor fred kempe. you can call him an expert on anything geopolitics. let's talk about whether or not we should be worried. many times over the last several decades we have talked about geopolitical risks and they seemed dire in the moment but they tend to boil over a little bit and then fizzle out.

are we worried this time for sure? >> on the question of geopolitical risk, i think we have to see this as an inflection point where a whole generation will be influenced by the outcome of the war in ukraine and the war in ukraine is going to be influenced by how much the u.s. and europe can stay together to support them. and that will be influenced by the cold winter and the shutting down of the pipeline, the major russian pipeline. we always knew at some point that vladimir putin would make this an energy board but what has happened this week is the worst-case scenario has come to roost. now we have to watch to see how it plays out. >> so, fred, the natural gas trade is arguably the center of this because that is what nordstrom one is.

it is about filling up gasoline tanks all over. ahead of what could be a very cold winter and we are not there yet. the volatility up and down, is it fair to say this is the way it will be going forward? or will there be expectation set around this idea that maybe the markets are getting a little bit more used to the idea that russia can turn off and has turned off the energy supply? >> that is a terrific question, dominic. what we have right now is russia betting that europe will not be able to stand the economic pain. it is already in recession and already had an energy crisis before the war. they just turn it into up geopolitical crisis. so we have a situation where europe is divesting its reliance on russia.

russia is testing it and hoping it can break down the support for sanctions and bring down actual governments, and it seems to have done that in bulgaria. from the european standpoint, the question is, can they maintain political unity? can they stick together behind the sanctions and get through. it could be a cold winter and forecasters are saying though that it could be a mild winter. that would be a merciful god if we get a mild winter but, it could be a winter that will test a lot of countries. especially germany that gets 55% of its natural gas from russia. so we could be seeing an geopolitical showdown. something like we have not see

. >> so russia is turning off the european gas that europe is turning off the smelters and their power prices. what is your expectation of what this means for other commodity prices? and the perverse kind of irony is that you could see commodity prices go higher as capacity and industrial and smelters go down. >> i know a little bit about geopolitics and economics. i don't know -- if i understood the markets i could maybe explain to you why oil prices could go up when it seems as though the demand and supply equation does not suggest they should do so. what i would say to look at right now is looking at something like nuclear energy. we have seen germany make a decision recently to turn back on its three nuclear plants. i think this crisis will drive alternative energy sources but

there are not many that can go lower than nuclear can. i think another area that people can invest is anything that can increase energy efficiency. europe will not be able to replace all of the energy it needs to this winter so people will be looking at how they can maintain their current lifestyles through greater efficiencies and using less energy. looking at anything and any technologies or services or companies that conserve that outcome. particularly europe because they really are the front line of what we are talking about. >> fred kempe, thank you, very much. so, dan and nathan, i don't know if it is just you or me or whatever but all over my social feeds in my newsfeeds i hear more conversation these days around nuclear and other clean energy besides solar. is of the same for you?

and is this an era you are keying on more? >> i am more focused on harry styles in my feed. no, but really, we have people like elon musk saying we need more fossil fuel out put. it seems like a bizarre world when we think about energy and how we ave aligned ourselves. i will just say this. there is no easy fix. price caps on oil coming from the west or however, it is more quantitative easing. it is very inflationary. it exasperates what is going on with the dollar and the concern really does become some sort of sovereign debt crisis. and we remember what that felt like after the financial crisis. i don't think there any easy

fixes right now into me, i just don't know how we don't follow europe into a recession in the not so distant future. >> the great irony is uranium as a trade is down from where it was before before russia invaded ukraine. so we are taking back on, whether it is germany or japan who has reunited a new smelters. that is a very interesting trade. europe, there gas and energy bill would be 8 1/2% of gdp and it used to be one of a half %. this is a big deal in terms of industrial output across many industrial sectors but, energy is still 4 1/2% or less of the s&p. these are trades that will continue to pick up because these companies are run differently. >> so we have more on the energy trade. don't miss the cnbc special report, energy emergency . it is coming up right after the

show. 6:00 p.m. eastern time. talking about all of the things that we just talked about and more. next up. buckle up. a high-powered idea could be coming around the bend. what we should expect from the iconic luxury car brand porsche. three big movers from the session today. traders are looking at if these names are worth a second look. netflix, lululemon and fedex. and our financial planning tools can help you reach them. that's the value of ownership. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated custom scans help you find new trading opportunities while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market

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welcome back to fast money. it is time for the trader triple play. first up, we have fedex. shares fell by more than 2%. they cited near-term macro headwinds. what is your take? >> i have tried to make the argument for federal breast multiple times. we have the north of $300 stock. we have not approached of that literally, in forever. it

continues to go upper left and lower right. i understand the downgrade but, as far as earnings on the 22nd, i think you want to on the stocks. >> so, fedex is a by. now let's talk about netflix. shares dropping almost 3% in a selloff. warner bros. at discovery, comcast, paramount touching 52-week lows just today. dan nathan, what do you make of the netflix trade? >> i will say this dom, even though t is down 77% from its high made just last year, the stock shows good relative strength. it is up 35% from its low over the summer. during q1 they lost 2 million subs. during q2 they lost 1 million

subs. they have pulled forward just a bit and the timing on this ad supported model will add uncertainty but it is one of the reasons why the stock me stay big and even if the nasdaq goes back towards its lows, it may not make new lows. so this is when i want to add dollar cost averaging if it were to head back. high single digits earnings and sales growth are expected next year. maybe a drop in subscribers lost, this could be an unusual value. >> i have heard that from a lot of traders him. >> relative to itself, that is not too bad. netflix has outperformed the market in the last three months by about 15%. i think you have not really given them credit for any of the password generation, additional income or the ad

supported model. if anything it is a net positive and on valuation it is hard to get excited about a company that is not growing like it used to be. i also think that the media sector was outperforming the market aggressively last week. i think they are giving it back on some of the cycle of the market. >> finally, lululemon stretching more than 4% higher . it is the second consecutive day of gains that surged after better-than-expected profits. karen, this is a stock that you own. you still want to? >> i still want to on this even though i can hardly call it a value. at low 30s, it is not cheap. this is a great company and they run their business so wel . the margins are fantastic and the pricing power is fantastic.

and now they have men's. >> you can even they just continue to >> so we are going to, we are watching shares of bed bath and beyond and they are down 20% today. the retailer is tapping a chief accounting officer to fill in as it's interim chief financial officer after the former chief financial officer took his own life last friday. over the last week those shares of bed bath and beyond have dropped around 40%. karen, they just had an investor day and laid out the

strategic plan. they just got more liquidity and have access to a line of credit. they seem to be showing things up but their analyst that question if they can fight the secular headwinds against the business model. >> there is that and the cfo, tragically, not there at a time that it is necessary. there is some concern about why did he take his own life. was there some sort of fraud or something involved. i hope that is not the case. i think there was just a deep dive by j.p. morgan before they made their investment. it is just tragic but, i can't own it. i hope they survive. >> it bed bath and beyond is down 18% right now. coming up, we are calling out to all car enthusiasts because of volkswagen is announcing a porsche ipo plan. it could become one of the largest public listings in the

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welcome back to fast money. porsche has tons of beautiful car footage here. let's take a look at what could be germany's largest ever ipo. >> a beautiful car footage. they are aiming for evaluation up to $85 billion and that would equal the entire market cap of volkswagen. porsche, like ferrari is a luxury brand and not a car company. the margins are between 22-25%. they only produce about 300,000 cars per year but they are

projecting sales of about 39 billion. the challenge for investors will be governments. they are keeping control through a special class of shares and the nonvoting shares will go to the public. the ceo of volkswagen will remain the ceo of porsche. they have the energy crisis in europe and porsche is also looking at ev. ferrari is seen as the stock that is up three and have time since 2015. but, you guys, i remember that tim seymour was bullish on ferrari and when they went public, he was correct on that. what you think about this porsche evaluation. >> they deserve a multiple. what i will say about the ferrari ipo, they hold their value.

the scarcity value in their ability to control, i think is what separates ferrari but i think that this is going to do phenomenally well. the high-end right now is doing find and i think there is always going to be a market for those cars. >> so, tim already open the door for this but this is all about ev. the luxury brands are all going ev. we know that maserati has that path coming up. porsche is pretty much going all ev. if you were to make a call on the brand side, where would you be? >> forward. i think they are doing a great job. in terms of porsche, you have to wonder, if you are a 60-year- old guy driving a porsche, you have to wonder what you are

compensating for but, ford without question. >> so, sticking with automobiles, shares of rivian jumped today. the company canceled production number would have been it's cheapest electric trucks and suvs so, you will not be able to get your hands on one of those cars for less than $70,000 each. options traders are betting that customers might be willing to pony up that cash to buy a rivian . we're going to break down the bullish action with mike. >> rivian was one of the top 25 busiest stock options. we saw more than two times as many -- on the average daily call volume and the busiest of those was the weekly 35. they are betting that the stock will be up within 7%.

they spent just over $.50 for 34,000 of those. they are making a similar type of that. >> mike, with the options action. 3 1/2% upside. for more on the options action, be sure to tune into the full options action show fridays at 5:30 pm eastern time. coming up, the big iphone event by apple tomorrow. what does tim cook have up his sleeve for this launch? what you might expect, coming up next. don't miss an outstanding interview with the starbucks founder and the starbucks incoming ceo tomorrow at 8:30 am. stick around. we have lots more coming on fast money in two minutes.

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now you really can do better! switch to the fastest mobile service - xfinity mobile. now with the best price on two lines of unlimited. just $30 a line. welcome back to fast money . we are counting down to the big apple event. this is its first in-person launch and they are set to

unveil the iphone 14. and possible a virtual reality headset and subscription service. that kicks off tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. we are expecting to hear from ceo cook at the code conference in beverly hills and that is where our very own dan nathan is right now . it is in beverly hills. damp, what is the buzz like there on the ground about the big event coming up tomorrow? >> we know the drill. the phones are likely to be iterative. but i think the big news is the hardware subscription and the idea of smoothing out product cycles and getting people to pay a recurring fee and adding on a bunch of services.

that will be the big news. i think the mood down here is generally optimistic. i think a lot of these private market investors tend to be a lot more optimistic than some of our brother and out there on wall street. especially when we see the devastation with public tech stocks. >> so, apple is a big topic of discussion there. if you look at this late coming from the conference, who are you most excited to hear from? >> i think the ceo of amazon will be really interesting. we were talking about the mega cap tech stocks. they were up 50% from its june low. i think more of jazzy will be a

good thing for that stock and then really interesting to see tim cook here to talk about the product road. the fact that johnny will be here, i think he still consults on the design and a lot of hard- core apple fans want to see some new hardware products they have not really gotten since air pods were launched. >> so, dan, hugo, for the update. you don't want to miss evans spiegel and then aaron levy from the tech conference tomorrow. they have all of the big names covered and they will be broadcasting live there tomorrow and all week. coming up, the final trades. a new way to transform our agency. strategy to execution.

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i sold some spd are. >> i have fun and i like being here. >> forward. >> thank you, for watching fast money. we have a special, cnbc special tonight on the cnbc special hour, the world on edge. a growing energy crisis in europe shakes energy producers. the growing energy fight with the west. oil stays high. nats xtra cuts production. tonight, we are drilling down moves of the day. what it means for your money and for america. ahead, we will hear from some