welcome to "the exchange." i am brian sullivan in for kelly for a bit. apple's big event is set to kick off right now in cupertino, california tim cook is expected to unveil the iphone 14, and maybe some surprises. the markets are a bit higher today. nasdaq on pace to snap the longest losing streak in six years. our next guest says do not jump into tech yet. and share of academy sports are jumping today. the company's ceo will join us to talk the retail environment, the consumer, and everything else that's ahead

let's begin with dom any chu there's a bit of green over there. >> just a bit. we're going to try to snap that multiday losing streak, the other we have seen in quite some time by the way, we're stilt tilting towards the highest levels of the day. the s&p 500 3949 the the last trade and 11,679 at the highs of the session we were up 44 points, at the lows we were down just two, so generally speaking, a positive market not so when it comes to oil and gas. check out the energy sector. wti crude, october futures, $82.50, down 5%, similar kind of moving in some of the big names. baker hughes on the services

side down 3.5%, halliburton down 3% marathon oil, down 3%. watch oil concerns, about the economy, all of that weighing on crude prices tied to the ev, electric vehicle space, that's chargepoint holdings, up 7%, due in large parts of analysts at credit suisse initiating coverage they like the vertical be gracings capital-like growth model, and by the way, that $22 target we're talking about implied move, if analysts are correct. back over to you. >> a lot of pressure on the sell side, on the down side as well good news for the federal government, because they need to buy the spr back. >> they have to replenish the supply >> dom, thank you very much. let's got to the big story

of the day it's apple's product launch event. it's had six straight weeks of gains in the summer, but it's on pace for the fourth straight week of losses there you go can they again things back on track. steve kovach is at apple headquarters in coupertino, and tim higgins from "wall street journal. steve, you kick it off what can we expect are there going to be any surprises? >> reporter: yeah, brian, this is apple's first iphone event in person since the pandemic began. in fact tim cook came out to welcome everyone back to the steve jobs theater behind me they built this theater just for events like today. finally get to use it again. four new iphone models, two regular models, two of the pro

models with more advanced features, and we're expecting a price increase we already know from tim cook himself demand for iphones are strong, can it remain that strong on top of that, new apple watches, including one that's set to be called the apple iwatch pro, which is more durable design, catering more to athletes and more people serious about their physical fitness airpods pro, with noise cancelling, but a rumored iphone subscription program, you pay one feet, and you gut a new phone every year how it's priced will be of interest to investors. >> any possibility we get a flying car a tv >> reporter: i wish i had something shocking and surprising we're not expecting anything other than new iphones and

accessories. virtual reali ity is protect ne year and the car is was out on the horizon. tom forte, managing director at d.a. davidson, and tim higgins, technology reporter at the "wall street journal" and cnbc contributor tom, what do you need to hear to remain bullish on apple, or is the status quo good enough for new. >> the good news for apple is the challenges it had at the supply chain level, and china's zero covid policy meant it wasn't able to satisfy demand for the apple 13 so i think the setup is have i strong for the 14. what i'll be looking forward to seeing is pricing. the big challenge for apple is the strong u.s. dollar, so to what stenlt might it price the product materially different in the uk, where or in japan, where

the dollar is strong against the yen. lastly, i'm looking for a new value product. it looks like they're giving up on the lower-priced iphones haven't done amazingly well, but i think the setup is good for the stock. what are you expecting or hoping for? >> i think this cycle will be more about the more expensive pro model, trying to get more money out of the customers, squeezing the apple for more juice. that's been so important in this cycle going back to the 12, the 13 model, investors, and analysts are betting that can continue another year, even if unit sales slow or don't grow, the expectations is revenue can grow

>> i guess we still call it a phone, is there a limit? at some point in the next couple years, will we have a $2,000 phone, because nobody will care, they're just going to pay the monthly bill, not the total price? >> there is a limit. i like the comments from steve earlier, which are consistent with our white paper on, you know, i think apple will at some point mirror cable, meaning they'll give you a regular monthly bill, including hardware, software, and services to the extent that apple becomes more of a monthly bill, i think consumers are willing to pay two grand for the latest and greatest >> tom, one more follow-up we talk so much about apple as a phone company. i know that it is, but the services side, the revenue for services is actually more than the sales of many fortune 500

companies. it's a hell of a business on its own, but the e-mail product is not great, the i cloud, meh. so they need to work on the software side? >> it's the ability to have consumers that have older devices the next generation of a phone. on the mobile operating side, they eventually operate with a deop reply you think about fitness, tv, music, that's what's enabled apple to generate a premium multiple i think the services side of the business is well at apple, despite the concerns about some of their products. we've been waiting for this better tv product, better for better services, better for better epail

i'm not excited about a new iphone i'm sorry. >> the headsaid and promise of the car is out there in the future the big thing could be the subscription for the phone, boosting the recurring service revenue, helping tv, music, fitness, all of that tied together in an easy payment. it becomes almost like iphone as a service. >> tom and tim, thank you very much tim, we'll see you again the apple watch, there's any video that they're showing on the big screen i was there for the first-ever in-person event. it's got an elevator that spins in a slow circle, another invention of the now departed mr. johnny i what do you think of the watch

do you like it a lot of my friend that bought one don't wear it anymore. your next guest says that boring is beautiful. what does it mean by that? what stocks fall into that category we'll explain. check out shares of academy sports, they raise the the profit forecast. we're going to ask the ceo a bit later on at the show, and here's a quick check on the market. "the exchange" is back right after this this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery.

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do you expect more volatility, and maybe more losses before the year's end >> yes, brian. we are looking at a choppy market it's hard to get excited with new money to rush -- and put money to work when you have so much global uncertainty. the ukraine war has residual effects with food prices, the energy war you talk about a lot. you have inflation, an aggressive fed, earnings estimates that are likely to come down against that backdrop. it's hard to get gung ho and back up the trucks for stock exchange. >> is there something that would change that? >> well, clarity from the fed. when the signal happens that next month's jobs report, that would be an indication that maybe we have turned the tide, going from 9,1, or 9.67, that's

one month and that is de minimis. if we see a trend, and with energy, of all things. if we continue to see lumber dropping, and the root cautions of inflation relaxes, and the fed language following, i think you'll have another meltup like we saw in june that could be the time for investors. let's talk more about the idea of boring but beautiful. you like a name like a raytheon when i think of boring, i think about regional banks. >> renalent banks can be boring, especially if they're well managed. that's the point, knowing where your money is going. locally here in washington, we'll have a relatively strong economy. that's part of the driver for why i like regional banks.

names like sandy spring bank have been well managed for generations. truist, which is still benefiting from cost cutting with their merger last year, so those are two institutions that are well run here in this region in the function space, insurers are very attractive. they have nice dividend yields, strong cash flows. they own real estate, which can fight inflation. they also have a lot of cash on their balance sheet, a big bond portfolio. that will earn more income hopefully most of the damage from the rise in rates that have hurt bonds is in the rear-view mirror looking forward, we think insurers are an attractive place. >> wow, pretty interesting there. what about anything in technology that you would consider boring, but beautiful, or boring but sexy, because making money is beautiful. >> that's where big is better in

this case. we want to diverse fit among the biggest best names there's been too many surprises in tech where a week you're down 30%. netflix, facebook, nvidia the past week. there's too much risk, in our opinion, during a bear mark to go throwing darts. i know they're well known and a bit boring, but the apples and microsofts of the world, and google to some extent amazon, there is where we think steady the amazon/union thing is something to watch mark, good to have you back on have a great day. >> thank you. still ahead, the trade on the good, bad and ugly

box down 1% since january, not bad. starbucks, down 25%. snap has been snapped, down 77% this years ouch plus with the summer travel season fully in rear-view mirrors, phil lebeau will be here and on set to talk about it we're back after this. what if you were an iconic tournament that wanted to keep millions of fans on the edge of their seats? so, you partner with ibm consulting and use ai to analyze millions of data points to help predict player performance and bring fans closer to the action. now you're serving up head-turning insights and transforming your business into the top seed. let's create experiences that ace it with your fans. ibm. let's create

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that's the longest losing streak in six year. we are going to break it we have a couple hours left. to lose over 1% would be a lot the nasdaq up 143, or 1.42%, s&p and dow industrial average also in the green so what is moving inside this market netflix is it's been a rough go the similar stocks, they're doing well today the tan is the ticker, get it. and inside of that enphase, bit battery maker. the solar edge, these are what they call redsa similar.

and the tan, tan, etf doing well today. what's not doing well is what we talked about a lot. >> by the way, very good news for the u.s. government it wads gasoline prices to come back, but they have to buy back gas for the spr. so it's liking that the price of oil is going down. oil prices are back to the levels we saw before the beginning of putin's war in ukraine. think about that also economic concerns around the world. china is locking down more than 60 million people right now, just crushing energy demand so we talked about putin ace inflation, if you will

well, with this move down, it's gone now, to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. >> brian, thank you very much. a federal judge in texas has ruled that the government cannot man dade free coverage of some drugs that prevent hiv infections a christian-own exceed challenged the decision the judge has previously called the affordable care act unconstitutional ukraine is considering shutting down the nuclear plant over safety concerns shelling has resumed, despite pleas to establish a demilitarized zone kim kardashian is establishing a private equity firm with jay sam months from the carlisle group it will have consumer products, e-commerce, entertainment and

luxury on a special two-our edition tonight of "the news" how airlines are preparing for the fall after a very busy and snarly summer. it starts at 6:00 today. >> within our earlier. thank you very much. home values, they are coming down, coming down quick in some areas. diania olick is here, on set all of this and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remains firmly about 6%. maybe that's the new normal, at least for now, we're back after this he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim® web.

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all right. welcome back shares of academy sports and outdoors are climbing higher after reporting better than expected earnings and raising full-year guidance same-store sales comps fell, that was partially offset by the increase in an actual ticket in other words, how much you spend going into the store joining us now with more on the results of the consumer and the

holiday season, yes, we're talking christmas. ken hicks is the chairman and ceo of academy sports and outdoors welcome to the program do you see signs of a consumer recession? >> we have not seen the consumer pull back. what we have seen is the consumer looking for value one of the things we're known for is value they are still buying what they want to buy, though. >> what are they buys, primarily? is it kids sports? hunting? where has the big surprise been? >> it's across the whole store what we're seeing is people are looking for experienced team sports, kids sports is still very strong. camping has been really good outdoor grilling, people are looking at that. water sports we sold a lot of pools this

summer people are looking to have fun >> they are, and there's been so much question -- i hate the term back to normal i spend the summer in the midwest, and a lot of people never locked down. the reality is a lot of the country never stopped living the way they have. do you see consumer habits changing or have they remained fairly consistent and will so. >> we are seeing a trend towards health and being outdoors. that's something that we obviously sell so people are into fitness, into experience, and that fits with us what we've seen actually this year is the timing to get to normal the baseball season started when the baseball season was supposed to start school started when school was supposed to start.

the football season when football season was supposed to start. the normalization, if you will, is the timing getting back to what it used to be, and the activities, as you said was there. it was just the timing was messed up. now everybody is back to, quite frankly, normal. >> that's good to hear how sensitive is your consumer for the price of gasoline? >> i think everybody's sensitive to it, but people are still going to do what they want to do so the kids will still play soccer or baseball the family will still barbecue people who like to fish will go fishing. they may not spend as much on it again, we offered a broad selection of assortment. they may not biased highest prized, but maybe a lower price.

maybe they'll buy less expensive cleats our assortment allows the customer to do that. >> do you feel there was some big pop from covid stimulus, whether or not that's just direct stimulus, whether it's $700 billion in forgiven ppp loans? was that there some sort of artificial boost to the business >> well, no question that there was. it was the direct cash that people got that's one of the reasons why we're down this year from last year we were up against the stimulus the last couple quarters that said, we're still up over 35% over where we were in 2019 so the trend of people looking for experience, living healthy, exercising, those type of

things, that's moved up. that's still there it's down a little bit from the stimulus money. >> all right ken hicks, the ceo of academy sports and outdoors, the stock has done well. congratulations. it's been a good day you're up on the year. not a lot of companies can say that, ken. >> thanks, brian. the place of oil is continuing to sell off we are seeing a lot of selling pressure a lot of people maybe shorting crude oil. it's down almost 5% to $82.64. that's back to the left before putin's invasion, and his foolish wash with ukraine. that putin pop, if you will, has now been wiped out the price of gasoline should also come down that's wholesale gas we've seen signs in america where there have been gas stations with $2 and change, gas, a bit of a consumer break

there. still ahead in "the exchange" the latest sign that the one hot housing market is cooling off, interest rates are weighings on home values we'll talk real estate with diana olick, next. nope. how do we show that we'll stand tall through the storms? nah. (thunder) how do we make our clients feel secure and- ugh... not lions. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people. people who've been looking after people for over 170 years.

welcome back to "the exchange with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate firmly above 6%, it's not a surprise that mortgage demand is dropping diana olick joins us right here at cnbc. great to see everybody in person, though i did see you in d.c. a few months ago. mortgage demand is down, abu homebuyer demand is down, because mortgage rates are up. prices dropped 0.77% it was the largest monthly drop since january of 2011, and the

first monthly drop of any size in over two years. roughly 85% of major markets have seen prices come off their peaks through july, with one third coming down more than 1%, and one in ten falling by 4% or more after gaining trillions in home equity collectively, some homeowners are now losing some of that housing wealth, so-called tapable equity, which is the amount a homeowner can borrow while keeping 20% of equity it hit $11.5 trillion, but may was likely the peak. total tapable equity is now down 5% so far since may. q3 will show a more sizable losses i want to make one thing clear, it is nothing like during the great recession where prices crashed, millions of homeowners

went underwater. not even close brian, i cannot emphasize that enough >> because back then people were teak olympic home equity lines to buy other apartments or solid gold boat. >> or they had bought their homes with no equity, no cushion. right now homeowners are so little leveraged, the smallest amount of leverage on record. >> 31% of sale in town were all cash they don't care about interest rates. there is a pool of buyer that is interest rate agnostic. >> but they're looking at prices coming down, who wants to catch a falling knife? >> is it a falling knife or falling spoon? >> gosh, i hate miss coming up here nobody wants to bike something, like a car when you walk off the

lot you've lost value, but right now it could be. >> do you think mortgages rates are going higher >> i didn't think them would hit 6, then they came down dr horton said they saw a bit of a bump up, now back to 6.25. it looks like that's where -- >> i'm going to butcher this stat i think it was something like 80% of mortgages are under 4%. >> yeah, yeah, like around 3%. >> why would anyone move >> to me the biggest problem with housing may be i got a 3.3% mortgage, yeah, i need another room, i'll wait a couple years and add on i'm not going to give up this mortgage. >> because you have so much equity, so why not redo the kitchen, the bathroom, whatever, because you are going to get

literally twice the rate you have now that's why we have no inventory. >> i'm glad to see you on set as well i'm just filling in myself >> look at us. >> i love it. the apple events is still going on let's get back to steve kovach even rolling the animation for you, steve this is an $800 new watch that's meant for rugged users. they claim it has the most accurate gps, and catered to the high-end, extreme athletes on top of that they have had a new version of the regular apple watch, the series 8. pretty good improvements there the biggest thing happen is a temperature sensor they use for

off lace and tracking menstrual cycles, and also crash detection. if you get into a car crack, it can detect that appeared limbally call emergency services, and send them to your location they're about to announce the any iphone any second. >> that's the feature event. get in there. >> reporter: that's right. thanks, brian. still ahead, we have more to do it's a special edition of show and tell three charts, three stories, three trades you're going to see them here, but only if you stick around the dow is up session highs. look at that a good day for the markets we're back right after this.

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welcome to the dome. first up is snap, on pace for its worst year ever. social media company recently announced it's laying off about 20% of its staff as this struggled to compete evan spiegel this morning said the changes are painful, but necessary. >> we wanted to make sure, because we're so focused on building or business over the long term and really serving our community, we wanted to make sure we could generate cash even in a environment where our revenue didn't grow. these are painful changes, but they're all about ensuring our long-term success. you wonder, with the stock down 77%, it's a question of long-term survivsurvival >> brian, good to see with you i was going to say the same

thing. i want to root for them. i think they're doing the right thing, but nowi a total show-me story there's the ios privacy changes, which has really hit a bunch of folks, snap not least, but finally the competition, so they're taking the bold steps, laying off 20% of the workforce, but risk/reward is skewed here i don't care about valuation or how much it's down ritz too early to go here >> there something they could do to change it >> no, no, look, they're doing the right things, but they also can't control the make rho environment. if we do fall into a recession, that'ss that's a tough one, too. >> let's move on, snaps thumbs

down it reveals the ceo succession plan howard shultz could be succeeded by outgoing report chief laxman narasimhan schultz said he's leaving starbucks in a good place, particularly in china. >> we've been in china 21 years, we occupy a position like no other western brand. we're opening one store every ten hours in china the situation in china is opening up our position is china will be much larger than the u.s. when we're all said and down. >> >> what do you think? thumbs up or thumbs down >> i do thumbs up. i think starbucks deserved the benefit of the doubt next tuesday is a big investor deal the most important thing is the

plan is the guy who was just talking is leaving, howard shultz theius ceo narasimhan, is real ly respected. this is not a problem of reinvigorating the brand the issue is more on the pricing and the cost side. that's an easier fix if customers are still coming into the store. the question is, do they have the right plan we'll take a look on tuesday, and will they have the right people, includes mr. narasimhan. i'm an optimist, the jury is still out, but i think it's a good speculation >> it's a great global company a german company makes lie sol and clear asill, but starbucks is an experience business.

it seems like a different skill set. >> for sure, but howard schultz is a smart guy he's got a lot invested, not just money-wise, but in terms of his being and creating this company. the board, i think, did a good job. it's a different kind of company, but it is a brand company. most importantly, it was a turnaround, and he did a great job. as you know, the stock dropped 5% on the announcement he was leaving. northern michigan university's own hour schultz. go huskius final name is box. flat in 2022, the ceo said the company had to take a hard look at its business to stay competitive. >> we looked exhaustively across the company to ensure we were growing fastest, that we could drive most efficiently, and we

put those resources best hind that initiative. your take, thumbs up, thumbs down. >> i'm giving it a thumbs up, because it's continued to grow revenues in a tough environment. the funny thing is it's small side is actually an advantage right now, because one, it has a long runway and will continue to grow revenue, but also it's noose to be small in temperature knock, the large-cap tect sector is out of favor and getting slammed every day. the management team has not shot for the moon, but instead they have managed to grow slowly and well a couple years ago i would have said, well, anybody can do that in a bull quarter, but they have proved they can do it in a more

difficult environment. there's not a lot of tech companies that compete estimates, so i would take a chance here. >> two thumbs up, one thumb down, it's like a good episode of sisal and ebertyou, bryan >> it is falling 5% at $82 a barrel and it is low for the preinvasion price. what exactly is going on with oil. we heard from her last night and it's interesting here, but you've got india said their demand was up 16% and jet fuel demand is out of control and gasoline, driving miles seem to be pretty high and down a touch and not very much and we're talking about price caps and new sanctions and the only thing the price of oil is doing and it's falling and what's going on. >> i think that market participants are really focused on the recession story and they're focused on the

zero-covid policy that continue to fall all expectations and i think now the question is going to be is opec going to come in and do something more meaningful they have raise said all these concerned about low liquidity and positioning in the market, and i do think it will raise questions if we were to potentially breach 80 on brent, i think that would raise a lot of concerns. if heads of state and opec countries is basically saying maybe we need to come back into the market and do more. >> do you think they want to defend $90 >> i think that people were very comfortable at $90 i think that breaking 90 and being in the 80s for brent can obviously balance that, but it would be a question about do you need to basically put in a solid floor? because these macro sell-offs can really go anywhere, even if

the fundamentals of the markets look strong and if you think there are other factors that have to be taken into consideration, you have the usspr relief that should wind down in the coming on, you know, at the end of october. so that will be an interesting point in the market. you've brought up the booming sanctions on russia and price cap, but for now, i think the focus is on the recession story, and again, the low liquidity is exacerbating these moves when i had a conversation on the phone about a week and a half ago with bin salman, and he's talked about illiquidity in the futures other mas and he made it sound like they were a big player perhaps not manipulating the market and do you think the market is being manipulated, it seems like it, but he wouldn't go that far. people are pushing this market around there's got to be sizeable players that are betting short,

no >> i mean, we have very, very low -- we do not have net length in this market, again, people have gotten out of their long positions. we have low liquidity and so if you're prince abdul aziz you have to be concerned about the next move lower, and so i do think now that we've had opec that they're willing to cut and they're willing to come into the market and i do think if we continue this downdraft, the expectation will be at least some type of statement coming from opec about potential future policy action. >> the next meeting was october 5th. they just had one and we'll see if they stepped in now and then. hell emon, thank you for being on the phone big day. it was a record summer for air travel and people were able to put the pandemic firmly behind them, and meeting that demand, if you flew it was a

challenge for the airline and we're using the word challenge nicely we're starting to get a better picture of how the carriers managed through that time and how they're positioned for the rest of the year and phil lebeau also at cnbc hq, i'm assuming you walked or flew >> they came in through labor day better than they focused and sept september october and october are better than the industry where we'll hear from a number of airline executives and they basically said it's better than a lot of people expected in fact, the terminology that i heard today describing september traffic, robust. business travel, it is improving and it's not a pre-pandemic level, but it is improving and capacity being trimmed helps the airlines as well and a couple of the carriers that we heard from today let's talk to ceo robert

eisen as they look at september heading into october and united airlines out with an ak this morning where the company said that its revenue is a little bit better than expected for the third quarter, so that's certainly encouraging news all of this coming on a day when united says it may be pulling out of jfk if it cannot get more flight slots this is something that the faa is considering increasing the number of slots, and any additional slots at jfk would follow the faa's well-established process of awarding them fairly and to increase the number of flights there to a number of different carriers so we'll talk about that in a bit. real quick, i want to talk about jet fuel you see that down there, it pulled down 17% from the june high, and keep in mind they were able to pass along the price

increases in the form of airfares and i don't think the price of oil is the reason airline stocks are higher and that's the next tailwind, and if it continues in the third quarter. >> if jet fuel comes down which it should, do you think fares are going to come down >> it is supply and demand >> yes >> i get this question all of the time from people they're not in the business to give us the lowest fares demand is there and they can charge what they are charging right now and there are low-cost carriers that are going with the lowest possible fare and there is a market for that and there's also a market for the business traveler or the international traveler and so do i expect lower fares? no do i expect them to be as high as they were this summer hard to tell as you go into the holidays >> do you expect the plane to take off >> they're doing better. >> if there's a hurricane some time in the next six weeks, all

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just gonna... get this... welcome to "power lunch," everybody. breaking fed news this hour and the baseeige book due out momentarily and how high might rate goes? we will look at that beige book for any signals and where can you find the biggest returns in this new era of investing and we'll talk about that, plus the dollar index highest levels since 2002 making some