talk tomorrow. >> it absolutely will, and this stuff can change, we are getting an appointment claims before he speaks it will really be his last chance to say anything that addresses last week's job market before we do have that meeting coming on the 21st, because they are not going to have anything to say around cpi. >> i will see you tomorrow for your last word. fast money begins right now. right now, crude closing in on $80 per barrel. the dollar closing to new multi- day highs against the pound and yen, this as the market ripples, straightahead. silicon valley's biggest annual conference. alphabet, meta-, snap, and more, obsessed with the chinese tech giant even though they are not even there. we will coincide this infatuation, coming up. apples big reveal, and electric new hire, and mickey d's suite come back from the

80s. tim seymour, and then nathan. we start off with a green rally 20 years in the making, the dollar index hitting its highest level since june of 2002, today, against the japanese yen on its 24 years high versus the pound. it's best level since 1985. stockmarkets today, a plodding king dollar. nasdaq snaps a seven-day losing streak, gaining ground as well, all three indices going positive for the week, but what will dollar gains mean for the market and economy in the longer term? >> hi. we talk about it all the time, that wrecking ball song we like so much, that is what the u.s. stocks, they fell, right? >> i don't know she watches it. >> i guarantee, i know she watches it, with her husband. bob thornton. anyway, a stronger dollar, as much as it is great for the citizens of this country, it is not great for multinationals. i don't think it is great for the market. tim talks about it all the time.

the relief rally we saw today was exactly that. we were oversold, to mention it last night, it makes sense, dan will show is a chart that illustrates that, but i think it will be short-lived. huge amounts in the h1 g, all great things for today, i just don't think it is all that last thing. >> down from the mid-august high and we talked about powell moving 7% but it's been almost 10% straight down. i think we had a 25 carat on a nine day rsi. anything below 30, 25 was as oversold as we have been since those june lows. ring back to the dollar, typically, you do not want to see the dollar rallying at a moment like this. it is typically a sign of the quality. we are defining the difference between our central-bank and what has been going on around the world. the ecb is certainly stepping up, 75 pips last night, that is the bank of canada and we do believe that every other central-bank other than the bank of japan is at least

moving aggressively. seeing the dollar here, we quote these stats all the time in terms of what it means for s&p earnings, or influence or the drag on earnings, either when you have a currency conversion, or just when american goods become that much more expensive. 40%, market waited s&p earnings are international, or 29% out right, and those are big numbers at a time when you have this. we have been hearing froit, second quarter, the dollar impact was something we heard from companies. it is something i think we will hear more of. >> this is really just indicative of the fact that the u.s. is the best house in a bad neighborhood at this point. >> the best house in a bad neighborhood, but, everything that you just said, what is going to change out of any of those things? probably nothing. what is the one good thing that came of this? inversely related to crude. crude goes down, the dollar goes up, opposite is still in effect. i would think that you're going to see maybe a trading event here, where you can sell the dollar, but ultimately, higher

dollar, lower crude. >> best house in the bad neighborhood? >> it's a great question. >> i haven't thought about it fixed but probably not. it's nice to have a roof over my head. >> it is so nice. >> a nice meal, a cup of coffee. a warm blanket. >> speaking of pajamas. then nathan, what did you make of the equity rally in the dollar's strength? >> yeah. listen, i think these guys encapsulated it pretty well come on a day like today, when you see the dollar come off, big oil come off, you have that comment, it sort of sets up after we have had this 10% decline from those mid-august highs, things are, you know, a bit like a coiled spring. we were talking about it on our 12:30 call, i shot you a chart of the s&p 500 and you drew a line from those june lows, you attach it to the july low and you can see where we just made a low yesterday. we are holding on for dear lif . that is where we bounced,

here. obviously we have been focused on that downtrend which has been in place for the s&p since the start of january. so, i think steve just said it, maybe we have a trading opportunity here in the equity market. we have a bounce off of that trend which is a short-term uptrend and listen, a lot of people were looking at the same lines. it is not like we are reinventing the wheel here or anything like that, but down 10% in a couple of weeks was a big move, we saw what happened to the markets when we had that move back in mid june, we had a pretty sharp rally for more than a month and a half or so. i do not think we get back to august highs anytime soon. for all these reasons that these guys just mentioned. i think that as we get into the end of q3 and i said this last night, i think all of these things will be weighing on corporate earnings, i think the realization that q3 is going to lead to q4 down in that 2023 recipe earnings are too high, i think that is what sends stocks back to retest those letters. >> our analyst forecasting a 20 year high in the dixie?

what did mike is outworn on for q2? when they had that intra quarter warning, it was fx. it was only affects. so, you know, you've got to think that it could be happening again, here. >> continued to grind higher from that point and it is a grind, and listen, i understand the trading opportunities, here what steve is saying but i think the trajectory is still higher and we don't even mention dollar to one which we should, go back to august of 2015, this is in summer of 2015, when the chinese devalued their currency and look what happened to our equity markets in the months that came from that. we are right at that vantage point, now, in terms of seven being the magic number and they are trying what they can do to keep it from getting there. it is getting there on its own. >> what happens if that is the reason it is the catalyst for the fed, maybe not to pivot, we talked about this, we don't think they will period but if he flattens out what happens if

he is more worried about the rest of the world, then here and that makes him blink? >> and, the dollar certainly is tightening financial conditions with this strength, so it is helping the fed out a little bit. part of this is also just as we talked about in so many other asset classes, the velocity of this move. if you think about the dollar index in may of 21, 15 months ago, 16 months ago, it was around 88. that is a major move. back to where we are, dan mentioned it, god has mentioned it, steve is saying this. we have the cpi number next week where being as radically oversold as we have been, we are going to see, i believe, and look at gas prices which will deliver you that headline lower cpi number, it may not change core that much but it gives an opportunity for equity markets to rally. in fact, we may have another week or so into a fed leaning i think based on these oversold conditions, that is really how we have been doing this, it has been more tactically, because there is nothing here, i know tony is going to come on and we

will talk about this, so, we should hear from him, but, the things that make you bullish are not what we are getting here. >> fed pivot, i want to go back to that for a second, what does that mean even, anymore, right? said pivot used to be a reversal in stance, but now, it feels like it could just be 50 basis points instead of 75, or 75 followed by 25. >> that is exactly what it means but i do not think it means switching gears anymore turning around cutting rates, i think it means keeping in 50 and then 25 and 1025 forever. >> that's hawkish. >> i understand that we have been conditioned to believe the fed will bail out the market but i think the market is in their purview anymore. it will be at a certain point but i think we are probably six or 700 s&p points away from that. in the interim, what they are going to fight is what they have been fighting since november, and that is inflation. i think the market understood about at the jackson hole speech. obviously, today is an outlier, but i think we will continue to

understand that going forward. >> recent comments from bullard, from brainerd today, also underscoring this notion that the fed will not blink, that it is better for the fed to go too far and get them over with, in terms of frontloading, as opposed to waiting and dragging us into next year specifically. >> yeah, listen, though, i think there is a scenario, like these guys just said, if the inflation readings do cool and we can see what, look at what is happening with crude oil, here over the last few weeks or so, there's a lot, but i guess the thing that we cannot get by is all of the geopolitical stuff, the fact that china is still in covid lockdowns, the fact that there is a shooting war with massive disruption to european oil supplies and energy supplies and natural gas supplies. so, the idea that we are not going to see a weakening consumer continually, i think in china and obviously in

europe, what that means for multinationals at a time where, again, going into the dollar, where the dollar is, quarter over quarter much higher. that is the thing that gets excused away on equity evaluations here despite the fact that some of the fed and fighting of inflation, they might be successful, you know? listen, again, we might rally back to that downtrend which looks like, i don't know, 4150 or 4200 or something like that and then it will be the moment of truth at that point, for equities. >> skidmore on the dollars impact of the market with tony dwyer, chief market strategist great to see you. >> hey, great to see you. >> do we think the dollar strength will be a factor in q3 and q4? >> i think today was all about a macro countertrend trade. you guys have talked about it pretty well on the opening. the dollar, at the same time stocks bounced, the dollar weakened, commodities got in, oil got hit, and long bond yields started coming down. it just looked to me like everything got to extreme and it was a bit of a reversal.

>> so, you said in the notes about a fed pivot, that this could happen. and i am wondering, we were just discussing what that means, now. i feel like it has lost all meaning. what is a fed pivot? >> is a soft pivot, a may be pivot. i think that you need -- okay, so, let's put aside the fed. i will talk about that in a second, one of the reasons that i did not take that momentum move off of the low at the august peak, even with such great momentum, was the fact that i could not find a major market low that did not have a two year note yield already trending lower from peak, and the fed clearly stating that they were pivoting. i think that is really what it looks like. maybe if you do 50 versus 75 you can get a countertrend rally, like we did with the august rally, the summer rally, but ultimately, you really have to have the -- here is the reason. there is a fundamental reason

that is really important but the reason that when the fed pivots, it allows investors to look through the coming academic weakness, because it has a stimulative effect when you look at 6 to 12 months down the road. >> tony, the fed pivoting is certainly going to be on most people's checklists for one of the things that made you turn bullish. let's talk about things that are a little bit more here and now, or somethings which might be more granule, whether it is market breath, whether it is some different parts of either the inflation chain, not necessarily even headline inflation, what do you need to see, again, for someone that has been very tactical here, talk about that, in terms of timelines. >> sure, thanks. so, what caused us to write about this yesterday was that yesterday was the seventh consecutive day where you had more than 90% of the s&p components trading below the 10 day moving average. when i go back and look at the last 32 years since 1990, i have only seen that twice.

once was in the swoon of 2011, the other was in the swoon of october of 2008? neither one of those proved to be the low, but it was extreme and it caused what we saw today. a nice tenure ready for an oversold bounce. so there is that on the technical side. on the fundamental side i think we are looking at the wrong thing. inflation has already peaked. core pce has come down three or four months in a row. it is the unemployment rate. i think what causes the ultimate fed pivot is when you have inflation data coming in, like it is, and everyone is talking about it, what if you get a spike of a half a percent on the implement rate over the coming few months, and that is exactly what is happening, i think i said last time on the show, where the hiring plans index, the small business hiring plans has deteriorated to a degree which suggests a meaningful up move in the unemployment rate. >> tony, $220 of earnings for your forecast, 18 markable,

market multiple gets us exactly where we are today. 16 multiple, i can do that math, that's 440 points and the s&p lower. what are your thoughts on that? >> guy, you know i don't have a target. i think it is one of those made- for-tv things, but, we all of a sudden come up with the target and beats our target so we raise our target. let's look at the history. history shows that when the core pce trades between 3 to 4%, which is i think where most people including myself have forecast for 23, your average multiple is about 16 1/2 times. so, you know, it always goes by core inflation, because that is what ultimately drives the bond market. when you look at above 4%, it is about 13 1/2, and when it is between one and 3%, it is 19. so, it really depends on core inflation. the current consensus is right. that should be somewhere between 16 and 17. >> tony, thank you. great to see you. >> thanks, mel.

>> tony dwyer. all right. tony does not recommend any s&p right now, have we seen a mini rally back to that downtrend? which sectors lead us there? >> i think it is tech, i think tech has been beaten up here. you know, there are some groups that have acted pretty well here. obviously, there is a lot of crowding in energy stocks, i think they would be week. i understand the fundamentals are probably a lot better for these companies, going forward, so the geopolitical things will keep the pedal to the metal. i want to keep an eye on financials, here, tim brought this up yesterday. i think the idea of some sort of faults that could start in europe given the situation over there, we know that the credit situation, the housing situation in china is really bad. let's see how the banks can rally here. that is when i will keep a close eye on. >> i am constructive after these next two months. i am constructive going to your and after the midterm elections. i'm not constructing now. the last person to say they

will pivot. i think you have to call this a pace pivot versus an actual pivot. >> a what pivot? >> a pace pivot but we need the pit rate increases to slow down. if we see that, that is not the real pivot but that is the pivot we will get pics but i always assume that when i hear terms i don't understand it is a sports metaphor. >> we are coining terms right and left. >> pace pivot. >> the pace pivot makes sense to me. brought up with tony ford over the last 15 years, the s&p forward pe multiple has been 15.8. it is 17, now. should we be trading at a premium for multiple at a time when there are a lot of things that i think have yet to play out? so, it just tells you where if we get back to normalize that pace pivot. >> thank you. >> one more p and we can get some good alliteration. >> powerful. >> is a powerful pace pivot. >> there you go. >> races back in the day, in

longer races, they would put somebody in to keep the case and that person would fall off the pace later in the race. that is one of those the more you know that nbc is so fond of. we should have the graphics ready to fire but we don't, unfortunately. >> we have an earnings alert for you, game stop shares on the move after hours. also announcing a partnership intended to introduce more game stop customers to the crypto exchange marketplace for digital assets. game stop of course introduced a wallet to crypto and an fts earlier this year. it is up 10.4%. >> we have seen this movie before. let's sprinkle some crypto headlines and a few other things and mentioned that client and again, this is a company that i have been amazed at how long it has held some of those bounces, but that is another one of these things, by

the way, to get this market back to a place where we can rally we have got to get rid of this kind of speculation. i am not falling for this headline. >> michael berry was just tweeting about that today, about the collapse of ets, meme stocks getting crushed, or maybe almost crashed because obviously they are not permanently crushed. >> connect the dots as to what is next and that is the same michael berry, last summer he talked about shorting the ark ets literally to the day a topped out. typically he is very early. in that case, he was right but you know, you can basically discount him, but do it at your own peril because he has been very right about a lot of things. >> coming up, the crude crash continues. oil hitting its lowest level since january. where does the energy trade go next? we have the details ahead. the latest out of this year's conference, danny is on the ground, he will tell us why regulation and content moderation's our buzzwords. don't go anywhere. more fast money, aer ts.fthi the boundary of human achievement. the new frontier. ♪♪

eh. ♪♪ it's not time to escape. it's time to engage. it's time to plant more trees. hoo! ♪♪ time to build more trust. time to make more space for all of us. so while the others look to the metaverse and mars, let's stay here and restore ours. yeah, it's time to blaze our trail. 'cause the new frontier? it ain't rocket science. ♪♪ it's right here. ♪♪

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only from xfinity. nah. unbeatable internet. made to do anything so you can do anything. will conduct a fast money. take a look at oil prices today. the wti west texas intermediate and crude following to its lowest level since january.

wti coming within a whisper of falling below the $80 per barrel mark, the drop takes a toll on energy stocks, the only s&p sector in the red today. the group accounting for 10 of 11 worst-performing names today. steve, what was yours? >> 65. >> at the time it was jaw- dropping. now, not so much. >> actually, when i look at the chart on it, there is support around the $80 level, that is october and november of 2021. so, you could get a little bit of stability, here, but ultimately, i think the patrick reed is lower. i might not need until december to get my $65 mark. >> that is in your prediction within a prediction. >> what is interesting is, the outperformance of energy equities relative to the underlying. if you look at xle, it has pulled back but relative to the market it has been flat to the s&p even during a difficult period . and, that is because we just got through a second quarter earnings period where most of these companies, including the biggest, like exxon talked about they are paying dibs roughly around $45 per barrel and where they are relative to the strip and where

they are relative to getting targets and repayment and buybacks and i think these are things that we echo all the time. which is the these energy companies are run differently. i also do not see anything that changes the trajectory of where we are on a supply dynamics. i understand demand, that is ultimately what drives it and the supply disruption, during the last 20 years, only a handful of times has been sustainable. it is sustainable to me, here. >> so much less leverage on the balance sheets, they are amazing, now, and that is what they have done over the past few years. >> we talked about that last year. these symptoms have been forced to have better talent sheets. a number of different things forced their hand. crude is going to minus 39 per barrel, whatever happened in april forced their hand which makes these much better companies, and to tim's point again, understand that the broader market did well but did not create a. steve had a great call, dan had a great call but i will say again, i think the commodity market is frontrunning demand destruction, that we have not seen it yet.

maybe it is coming, maybe we are completely wrong but we are frontrunning something that has not happened yet. >> also with the dollar, typically a horrible environment to do anything, so it is not surprising on some level. >> if we see a recession, but we have very tight supply because of what is going on in ukraine, how does that happen long-term? >> the problem is what guy and tim are saying. i don't think you're really seeing the geopolitical events effect it right now but you have everything in the headlines, which should be a tailwind to the price of crude. so, i would say, a recession is probably the mail that breaks the back of the bear in this market? i would think the closer we get to this, we will see a bounce in crude, i think that balance will technically happen around $65. >> there is more fast money to come, here is what is next.

dan nathan is bringing us the latest out of the sears code conference and one social app is dominating the conversation. what it means for big tech, next. housing on its heels. mortgage demand dropping them as interest rates keep climbing. so, is it time to close the doors on the home building craze? the details ahead. you are watching fast money. live from the nasdaq market set in times square, we are back after this.

will come back to fast money. tiktok is on everyone's lips at the code conference this year even though the chinese tech company is not out to be event. alphabet ceo admitting that the viral video platform poses a competitive threat to big tech. snap, medela, google, twitter up today. deanna nathan is at the code

conference, we have been talking about this, and the fact that it could be an national security threat as well. if the u.s. goes through with a band, tech would rejoice. >> no doubt about it. if you think about the other key themes here, content moderation, and regulation, that is where it is hard to pigeonhole tiktok but that is what a lot of competitors that are u.s.-based, here, are talking about it. talking with investors, it is also one of those things that people are trying to get arms around, just how much of the attention of u.s. users is it really capturing, and what it is doing to their outlook and that sort of thing. that is a huge topic of conversation right now, and no one really has an answer for it. we obviously know that facebook likes to copy a lot of that, the kardashian centrally love reels. i don't know if you guys

noticed this but facebook and mehta cannot get out of their own way. it was up 1% today, underperforming the nasdaq and that seems to be one 52 week low down a heck of a lot year- over-year down more than 50%, and that one seems to be squarely the focus of those who think that tiktok is a big threat. >> evan spiegel is talking tonight, as i understand it. targets are very aggressive. 20% by the end of next year? >> the street was basically a 15% revenue growth and they want to go users, this is the big one, by 30% by the end of next year. they want to make up some of that advertising differential between the consensus, with ar based advertising, that is broken here today, that is a very interesting story, especially if you think back to last week when they announced all the restructurings, they cut 20% of their workforce, that is a tough row to hoe, when you think about doing all of that with fewer employees, but maybe this increased focus is one of the things. it will be really interesting to see, a bit of a product genius. are there any tricks up his

sleeve as it relates to new products, dragging some of these users back to tiktok, or time spent on snap, maybe that is the answer. >> for more on this, let's bring in gene munster, great to see you. if tiktok went away for whatever reason, a u.s. ban or whatnot, with a lot of tech problems result? >> i have to agree with dan, this is going to be one hot political topic into the next presidential race. the drift between china and the u.s. continues and it is, to me, surprising that tiktok is still allowed in the u.s. of course, china does not allow facebook or mehta or instagram in china, for the simple reason that they do not want people in the u.s. influencing how chinese people think. it strikes my attention, but why would the u.s. government wanted china to have that ability. so, i think this is not about tracking user data and what

some teenager is watching, this is a straight line into the greater thinking around u.s. people want to talk and i think it will ultimately get banned and i think it will be a big rejoice moment for mehta. if you ask me to put in the probability that it gets banned? it is high. 70 or 80%. i think it is one or two years away. >> so, we know tiktok is the app for everything, certainly for younger folks, but how about instagram? if i am 12 or 16 or 17 years old i'm getting my newsfeeds, i am getting -- unit, instagram seemingly is executing ahead of tiktok and into youtube, so, why is mehta or facebook not performing here? talk about this. i think we all universally say we do not necessarily love the company, sometimes you love the stock, sometimes you don't. i don't want to put words in your mouth. >> i would say those are my exact thoughts. this is one that i really

struggle with. i think that there are products that i do not think make the world a better place. think apple's products make the world a better place but i don't think mehta doesn't i think there has been an overreaction in stock with mehta relative to the competitive threats on tiktok i outlined why i think ultimately that gets banned, but i think what is more important is that the reach that mehta house, with all these properties, basically 40% of global internet audience uses their product on a daily basis, it is a big audience, and i think that all the issues that they have had, and still have to work for, i think ultimately that network is a big deal. one other piece, this is one of my takeaways from that marathon joe rogan podcast with zuckerberg last week. zuckerberg is a fighter, and i think that is one thing to keep in mind, if you look at the big tech, he is one of the few standing founders. when i put it together, a reluctant company that we own, but we do think this stock is going to perform relatively well in the weeks and quarters

ahead. >> let's be clear, he is standing because he has a special class of stock which allows understand no matter what. adding that aside, i wanted to get your quick take on apple and its product launches, today. >> they just make it look easy, melissa. i think that there is probably something there of innovation around criminal updates and i think that these incremental updates have innovation. i think about the products, i think that this will ultimately provide upside to 5% revenue for next year. i think that there is also the biggest take away for me, today, the features as expected, the satellite thing i put a 40% chance of that happening, the biggest surprises are in pricing. i predict that two of the four new iphones would have lower pricing, if they can maintain their pricing and in this environment, maintaining pricing is a price cut i think that the potential iphone buyers are going to recognize that and appreciate that, from

apple., the question is can they continue to maintain margins in this pricing environment, this cost environment maintaining pricing, if you are curious, if you look at the june quarter of 21 versus 22, the margins were exactly the same. 43%, and, that is this, underneath the surface, one of the many things that make this an incredible company is their ability to continue to provide value to consumers, and still provide value to investors at the same time but i think, that key take away gets lost in people debating features on a day like today. >> thank you. great to get your take. >> thank you. >> gene munster with luke ventures. apple sticking to 43% on margin. in this environment, that is a feat. >> tremendous but there is nothing wrong with what they have done. this stock has been interesting as it has traded. moved from 179 two 174. carter came on the show with us on tuesday night and said sell everything, that was president

because it traded down to 153 and changed today. the question is, is today's subsequent bounce enough to get bullish again? i am not convinced of that, but it is certainly interesting. the beta trade, to me, and dan has been on this, but august 30th capitulation in my opinion, snap on big volume i been your opportunity to get on that right here. >> a couple of things. guy, what always happens with these traits is that they upset the most amount of people at any given point. everyone thinks that after the apple event, that apple stock will fall off a cliff. i think apple stock is going to rally, for all the reasons you just said. 175 to 155, if it goes back to 165, it is a tremendous victory for the bulls. mehta, down near the pandemic low of 140. this is make or break for mehta. if mehta breaks down, and it

has been trying to build a base, here. i agree with dan. it has done nothing but they don't know who they are and they are spending a ton of money trying to figure it out but if it breaks, here, this thing is lights out. >> dan, what do you think? if tiktok were announced tomorrow, that it is banned in the united states, how much does that mean to mehta? how much does that mean for alphabet? >> i think it is huge for mehta. i think it changes the entire narrative about mehta, i think they can take their foot off the mehta versus petal, but i think it is also the sort of thing where as i talk in my book here, i am long on bus not stock. i snapped this up easily 50% on that announcement right there, when you thing about that revenue base and you think about how much of a lien or company this is, now come i also like the fact, jean just said that zuckerberg is a fighter, we all saw the video, we know he is tough. let me tell you something, okay? if this company is really willing to put up those sorts of expectations by the end of next year, given the cuts that they just made, i like that. they have nothing to lose, here. mike said this a couple of

weeks ago, i think your risk is to down but five or six up in the snap, here. that is what i want to play. >> he is probably right. i would say this entire conversation is predicated on your market view. apple is not moving higher if the market moves slower. snap is a long-duration asset which is not making money and is a high multiple tech stock getting destroyed. so, this is the issue here. tech with their outperformance, with semi conductors to the s&p, or the triple cues to the s&p, because those breakdowns are where we are in the market right now. >> coming up, mortgage meltdown, a man dropping his interest rate surging to jim hice, we will home in on the housing market next. plus, is neo the one? shares of theve maker despite a weakening support jumping, we will kick the tires on this one when fast money returns. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep,

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welcome back to fast money. what a difference a year makes. one year ago mortgage traits were below 3% and today they are almost double that. add on $400,000 home, borrowers are paying almost $700 more per month than they did last year. a new wrinkle, the value of people's homes is actually starting to go down. let's get to diana with all the details. >> melissa, you are seeing refi demand down because there are 12 people left with rates under

6% and you are seeing homebuyer mortgage down because people are priced out and that is having an effect on prices which dropped .7% from june to july come of that might not sound like a lot, but it was the first monthly price drop in over two years roughly 85% of major markets have seen prices come off their peaks through july with one third coming down more than 1% in about one in 10 falling by 4% or more. so, after big price gains, some homeowners are now losing some housing wealth. so-called capital equity, which is the amount you can borrow and keep 20% equity in the property, it the 10th straight quarterly record-high in q2 of this year at 11 1/2 million dollars. but, may was likely the peak. total capital equity is down 5% so far since may, and q3 will show a more sizable decline. the biggest losses of course are where prices were the

highest in the west, like san jose, seattle, san diego, seven cisco, and l.a.. i want to make this clear, this is nothing like the great recession, when home prices crash dramatically and millions of borrowers went into foreclosure. nothing like that. >> the loans were very different, but we are also in a different supply dynamics, right? >> yes. loans are much more responsible. people have to be able to afford payments the way they are underwritten, today and yes, there is still strong demand in the market and low supply, which will keep a floor under prices. >> diana, thank you. diane oleg. what do you do with homebuilders, steve? >> you just said, supply and demand issue. how many people bought a second home during the pandemic? right? how many people are still holding up second-home? and, they are watching their payment double. so, you have not seen the hurt yet, until you really see the pain when rates rise. then, you will see a supply affect it when you see houses being put on the market for sale. >> does this not all affect home depot or lowe's? >> it does.

home-equity values and what is taggable ultimately -- i think you have a dynamic here with home improvement, where people are, if they are not moving around they may throw more money back in their homes, but home depot and lowe's, home depot, more than lowe's, the resiliency of the professional business has been a part of the margin expansion of the company, part of why it has been trading. lowe's trades at a market multiple i think more attractive than home depot, here. home depot is at 250. a long way away, but that is the level you started nibbling outback at june lowe's, that is what you want to watch. >> throw money back into your home unless you throw money into the grocery store instead. i think that is the problem. food prices, gas prices may come down but food prices are still elevated. companies are not rolling back a price increase on doritos because commodity costs have come down. >> you never had a doritos in your life. >> i have. >> you like doritos? >> cool ranch. >> probably the worst flavor. >> thank you for saying it.

>> i've never met a doritos i haven't liked. anyway. >> so, i will try to connect a few dots here, typically something i do that failed miserably but i will give it an attempt, here. i think it is just as easy as trying to figure out where interest rates are going to look at the low here today, look at the bounce, pretty much the same low we made in the fall of 18. i think tlt goes higher from here, which means interest rates go lower from here, which means a name like dhi, which i happen to think is the best homebuilder, which traded 110 up down to 60, now 72, you can buy, especially if you think rates are headed lower, which i do. >> let's look at housing trade reporting earnings tomorrow, it's been a rough year for the retailer down 52%, but options traders could be betting on a restoration in the stock. mike, hey. >> hi there. right now, the options market is implying a move of about 9 1/2%, that is in line with the

9% that the company has averaged over the last eight reported quarters. calls outpaced puts by about 221, double the average daily call volume. i was looking at the september 23rd, 290 strike calls, those are being purchased just over four dollars. buyers of those calls are betting that can rally 15% or so by two weeks from friday. >> thanks for that, mike. for more options action tune into the full show friday, 5:30. coming up, fall around the corner, but crypto winter is staying put. we will take you to that point rough run next. first, shares of neo jumping despite weak earnings. what had investors plugging in? we will break it down the next, when fast money returns. options action is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade.

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if you're getting the most out of your trip. because you are. will conduct a fast money. neo topping the tape today, shares reversing early losses even after putting up a bigger than expected loss after covid like dance from china. guidance also falling shorter than estimates, now expected over 32,000 vehicles into three. guy? this is the letter and in your dawn trade. >> you say that with such glee because none of them have been particularly good.

neo is a $28 stock. i thought by now, neo would be north of 30, obviously it is not, but you know, record deliveries are expecting, i know they took down guidance, but service station, they have all different types of vertically integrated stations in china, they are doing everything correctly except the stock price but i think it is too cheap, here. obviously the lockdown in china does not help but the fact that it rallied today on the back of that broader market rally is a good sign. >> i 20 say it is a state company but it is backed effectively by the state. china is really backing ev's in terms of encouragement of residents to buy them and neo is a chinese company. >> national champions companies, it works until it doesn't especially when it turns to margin and there is politics involved. you want to own an ev company, fords ev fleet, i realize this is a lower base, up fourfold from where it was a year ago. number two ev player in the u.s. now, i think there is more momentum behind that and a much better valuation with a company that i can trust. >> coming up, there is a pastry

party happening at mcdonald's. golden arches kicking it old school with their newest offering. is it enough for investors to sink their teeth into this trade? we have the details next. first, bit coin putting the cry encryptor, sinking tloo ws not seen since mid june. will the brutal run continue? stick around. more fast after this. help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunitiet with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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welcome back to fast money. it was a cruel summer for bit coin with prices falling to their lowest level since mid june, at one point dropping below $19,000. the total market cap for crypto fell back below $1 trillion. as we prepare for fall, is bit coin stuck in this cold and long winter? dan, what do you think? >> it feels like it. tim just mentioned something, long-duration unprofitable risk assets have not performed very well in this environment, and that is clearly the case for bit coin and a theory and. i will say this, with client at less than 400 billion, it is trading like facebook is trading for all intents and purposes. how does the narrative change? cerium has this march coming later this month, that should be somewhat of a catalyst, but i will just say this. the bit coin dominance of this space is at its lowest levels

in a long time and i don't think that bodes well i've been saying it, it will take a fed pivot for bit coin to get going and i don't think that is coming in 2022. >> a fed pivot and again, some type of completely eradicating a lot of speculation in the market. i am not sure we have entirely seen that. i will also bring up the fact that gold, which was the first bit coin out there, the old store of value, around 1700, getting near a low that, break through that, again, the impact where gold is supposed to be saving you during difficult times has been puzzling. >> people believe in coincidence? i know you don't. he is as lucky as i am. i do not think it is coincidental, mel, that the coin topped out in november, around the same time that the fed finally got religion. and, when bit coin did rally over the last month or so, it coincided with this misguided belief that somehow the fed was in fact pivoting, which they are not doing. so, the selloff to me, is a belief that this fed means business.

if you believe the fed will blink, which i don't, bit coin goes higher from here, but i think they will. >> you cannot buy gross. this is not the time to be speculating rest, this is not the time to be buying bit coin. you want to be a buyer of value in a rising rate environment, and until otherwise corrections but can i ask the question why? >> you can ask all the questions. >> yes boss. >> why is there any equation being made between bit coin and tech stocks? >> because it is speculative. and its growth. >> okay. >> so it is speculative and it is gross and people do not look at it as a source of value. what is the fundamental reason behind buying bit coin? crypto? it is gross sector of the economy, and of markets. >> i think that is fair. i think when we started out with bit coin trade we were talking about this, high spec territory on some level you can see what bit coin advocates

would point out is the limited supply and that there are not unlimited bit coins and that should create a store of value dynamic but until proven otherwise it is not a reserve currency, it is not used in commerce, it is used to speculate. >> coming up this fall, mcdonald's is going retrofit the fast food chain bringing back set awe treat from the 1980s. what is that? what they are baking up, next. the new frontier. ♪♪ eh. ♪♪ it's not time to escape. it's time to engage. it's time to plant more trees. hoo! ♪♪ time to build more trust. time to make more space for all of us. so while the others look to the metaverse and mars, let's stay here and restore ours.

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welcome back to fast money, pumpkins buice lovers a step aside, there is a party happening at mcdonald's, the fast food chain bringing back its menu offering, a fall treat >> if you have a punk and anything anywhere. >> time for the final trend around the horn. >> i think dispenses about 7458. >> stem, but not tomorrow. a dollar 50, today, >> dancing code. >> yeah, snap. if a delaware court says

twitter is worth 43 billion this is to sneak cheap. >> guy? >> dr. seuss fan? dr. horton hears a who. thi. >> thanks for watching, we will see you back tomorrow night at 5:00. don't go anywhere, a special