>> i didn't see her predictions sgrpredictions. >> we will all find out. and gamestop with the crypto platform the amazon ceo says it will not mandate the return to office for corporate employees. i didn't know it would be that big of a debate. go back to work. it's thursday, september 8th, 2022 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're here the grouches i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today.

this is a good tease about what she says is happening next katie stockton. >> i do have a life. this is part of my life. >> a big part. >> i was thinking if she is going to be right and at least we test the lows and go through them what do we -- is it one of the horrific octobers that scares the crap out of us or is there a vix headed to 40 what is a vix at 40 indicate is 3,000 a possibility in this tightening cycle with the fed who says we may need to have two years of unemployment? >> i saw that column jason teases this as the scariest economic paper with the macroeconomics outlook the fed would have to raise rates and keep them there for a long time and deal with two years of 6.5% unemployment to get back to levels his expectation is 3%.

>> i wonder where that puts the s&p. mid pandemic lows we were 2,300. 3,000 from where we are right now sounds like -- >> a 25% drop. >> not a crash, obviously. not the "c" word it would be painful. 2,300 on the s&p that happened in the last couple years. it is not out -- >> a global pandemic to shock the world. >> it caused the new highs with all of the stay at home. >> the government stimulus. >> may stay at home stocks come back. >> government stimulus you don't have central banks with the massive easing and liquidity, that's a different story. >> stay at home stocks should rally. everybody is staying home. that's the big argument we have every day. everybody staying home >> a lifestyle >> get out of the house. don't put the zuckerberg goggles

on >> they get out for things they want to get out for. vacations. >> what happened to regal cinemas? no one returned. i saw eight movies i'm back i'm back >> one of the theaters here in times square has bedbugs a woman claimed that >> that is your worst nightmare. >> that keeps me out of the theaters >> is this real? let's look at equities after all of the scary talk, you saw the markets up yesterday nasdaq up 1.2% dow and s&p up 1%. this is flat lining. s&p up less than 1 point nasdaq up 1.5. if you take a look at the treasury market. yields did come down a bit you will see the 10-year treasury at 3.239%.

developing overnight, chengdu extending lockdowns until saturday officials say the virus poses risk in some areas of the city's 21 million residents, 16 million are stim under lockdown a handful of districts are re leased from lockdown, but mass testing is tomorrow and sunday they have been playing down with the lockdown language. it is not a lockdown you can come out and get tested, but go back home. >> i wonder about the zero tolerance policy i guess we didn't have a chance to do zero because it was already not zero >> you don't have a strong central authority that will tell every state you have to stay home indefinitely. >> they have no herd immunity. >> they have not been vaccinated >> they could be on the front end of a serious thing if none of your people have seen the

virus. >> it is a time clock. it takes us back to where we were before. >> don't you feel good about the herd immunity? i feel good about myself. >> i do, too the one thing i'll say if you look at oil prices, oil prices are down significantly >> 82. >> 82. the lowest level we have seen since january or before that lowest settlement for january for wti and brent and rbob that has to do with the lockdowns, but potential concerns of recession and what it means globally. >> because the supply back drop seems like it is getting worse in terms of russia and opec and everything stocks to watch. gamestop shares are higher this morning. the company reported just over $1 billion in net sales for the quarter. down from the prior year reported a net loss of $107

million. few analysts cover gamestop. the company announced a partnership with crypto exchange ftx. the company focused on becoming profitable launching products and investing in stores that lower cost expenses to decrease by 14% from the first quarter of the year. shares of american eagle are plunging 4 cents a share missing expectations of 13 cents revenue was in line with expectation. the new law in california that calls for a government created council to set wages for fast food workers. o opponents of the law are trying to postpone and let voters to try to block it. if the referendum qualifies, the law would be suspended until voters have a chance to weigh in

on the november 2024 ballot. it will need to get voter signatures to qualify. >> we heard before that bob iger at one point wanted to buy twitter back in 2016 when he was the ceo of disney. backed out after both company boards agreed not to do a deal yesterday at the code conference, he elaborated on the decision >> after we sold the concept to the disney board and twitter board and really ready to execute, the negotiations that was just about done, interestingly enough, i went home and contemplated and said i'm not looking at this as carefully as i need to look at it yes, it is a great distribution perspective, but it comes with so many other challenges and complexities that as a manager

of a global brand i was not prepared to take on. major distraction and managing circumstances that were not even close to anything we faced before. >> in 2016 let me just see. what was the price >> i bet elon musk wishes they would have bought it >> did you check the price >> in 2016 >> $15 you could have offered 50% premium at 22 which would be half of what musk is in for. maybe at 15. >> 33% premium at $20. >> maybe that's what people think it might be worth at this point >> it is incredible for him to sit back and say this takes too much time and attention and step out of it after you convinced the board. i would say that's a pretty smart move from a manager after

he convinced the board and other company's board then to say i don't want this. that was admitting this is my worst trade before it happens. >> it sounds like a horizontal -- why disney twitter? >> exactly >> i understand gaming i understand buying a gaming company for media. >> it doesn't seem like it makes sense. >> why would that help disney? >> yeah. i don't get how you lock up the symphony, so to speak, it could have taken up a huge amount of t time >> disney would not have to change the twitter censors ramp it up >> can you imagine from the political blowback from it that alone as a manager, forget

it >> wouldn't have to change a thing. get more -- when we come back, vladimir putin threatening to let europe freeze this winter we'll get reaction from helima croft right after this. and later, we get you ready for two big market events. today's ecb decision and a speaking event for fed chair jay powell that is closely watched. right now, you are watching "squawk box" here on cnbc. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools

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some chilling comments from vladimir putin speaking to business leaders yesterday putin said russia could decide to rip up existing contracts to supply energy to europe if the eu adds price caps we will not supply gas, oil, coal, heating oil. we will not supply anything. we would only have one thing left to do in the famous russian fairy tale we will let the wolves freeze. he is talking about a fox who tricks a wolf to freezing to use his tail to catch a fish in the ice. leaving the region vulnerable.

you see natural gas is down 5.5% in europe. it is up close to 700% year to date the dip in oil prices is sliding to a seven-month low wti down again today at $81.49 helima croft and a cnbc contributor is here with this. helima, let's break this down. this is alarming what would happen to europe over the winter we are seeing oil and gas prices coming down on the verge of a global recession what takes more weight and could both things happen at the same time >> the natural gas story is the most important economic story. europe is really facing a serious economic crisis. if vladimir putin makes good on his threats to basically shutoff europe with gas supplies, it

will be challenging to make it through winter if it it is a cold winter. germany said we built storage and building lng infrastructure. we are going to be ready again, ready means you have industries cutting back on output steel and an aluminum and fertilizer prices will rise. it is necessary to shield from the price increases. i think vladimir putin is playing a very serious game of brinksmanship with natural gas. >> we could see both things at the same time? brinksmanship and natural gas in europe and potential serious problems there wti down closer to $80 at this point. is this a situation where it is a tale of two cities europe in big trouble. the rest of the globe not so much >> this is an interesting

question in terms of what happens on oil with these price caps right now, market participants are concerned about recession. they are looking at the china story with the continued covid lockdown and weak economic data. the outlook on the demand side may not be great the supply picture and we have the u.s. spr release winding down the question is come december 5, will we have serious sanctions that pull russia barrels off the market or will the price cap plan that the treasury is pushing keep the market supply because russian oil will continue to be on the market just at a discount do the russians want to play along? they said you give us a cap. we give you a floor. the question is will russia basically start withholding oil supplies going into the decision they potentially disrupt other countries? what does opec do? we had the opec meeting on

monday and they did the micro cut. they are willing to do more. they stand ready will saudi arabia do a massive short squeeze? i think opec is an important wild card to pay attention >> if there is any doubt of putin and that was one of his cards he had and it is so clear now, helima. he is so evil. just watching this play out. we're not talking about the atrocities nearly as much. now, you know, he seems like he is comfortable having done all those things and now he will use the economic card. 19 degrees i saw 19 degrees celsius where you could get arrested 19 times 9 over 5 plus 32 is 66 degrees. so we should go long sweaters for sure in europe, don't you think?

we should buy sweater stocks >> to me, the weather story is going to be the biggest factor in terms of whether europe gets through this if they have a cold winter, they will go through storage quickly. there are no additional supplies coming in from russia. or almost any circumstance the question is where is the available gas to help in a cold winter scenario? the last thing i will say, vladimir putin did not just threaten to cut off supplies he said he may not allow ukraine grain to go to market. the deal with turkey he said we may not allow this to go forward we will have a food crisis as well >> helima, the spr how much are we draining is that a mistake? will we add it back? is that why we're at82 >> that is a key factor in the market right now we have been releasing it close to 1 million barrels a day from the u.s. spr that is keeping the market

supplied the question is when this massive release winds down and can we do another one? do we sit back and say okay, prices are where we need them to be it doesn't look like there is a lot of additional tools in the tool kit when it comes to supply responses from the united states again, the demand story is really going to be important for the white house if they want lower prices >> helima, thank you we will see you soon. >> thank you for having me all right. wheat, grain >> it gets back to the question of how long does the eu remain resolute and how long do other partners remain resolute clearly that's what putin is trying to do break them >> the long game we thought after a couple months it's a long game how about the fox and wolf fishing?

i don't think that is a great. the irs flush with new funding. >> the boy who cried wolf. >> how many? 87,000 irs agents. we may soon be looking into your past i hope there is nothing there. robert frank has that story. and the ceo of draftkings joins us in the 8:00 hour. watch the buffalo bills take on the defending super bowl champions l.a. rams. saying l.a. rams makes me sick i'm from cincinnati. that's why i'm saying. the last three minutes of the game were terrible that's all ac00 p.m. eastern on nbc and peock. it is not an exhibition game it's real.

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the irs putting $80 billion of funding to work it will likely mean more audits. not just for future tax returns. robert frank joins us now with more what could go wrong? >> for those who didn't pay taxes, a lot audit rate for those making $1 million more has fallen the past decade with the funding, the irs looks to lift the audit rates by going back to the past the irs has three years after your filing due date to audit returns. if you filed a return in april of 2020, the irs could audit you for that return until april of

2023 if you filed early, say in march, the statute of lim limitations is still three years after that april 15th filing date it can go back further for large discrepancies. if the irs believes your return has substantial understatement of income, they can actually go back six years generally this means you omitted more than 25% of your income if you reported $400,000 of income, but earned more than $525,000, they can go back six years. also, it applies to capital gains. if you inflated the basis of the asset you sold and result of that is a 25% reduction in taxes, they can also go back six years. if they think there is real fraud, meaning missing income was intentional and substantial, they can go back an unlimited number of years. joe. >> frightening

robert, you are right. i hope people did -- it is great to have a good accountant. i said that's like $400. he said, yeah. there are times you get a revised w-2 and this piddly number and i spent a year and a half with extension and then $300 can't you just file? >> you get something like that and you send it in immediately it is not worth it >> yeah. >> yeah. joe, there are so many pass throughs and high net worth taxpayers that know the cops are not on the beat in recent years. then pushing the envelope and what i want to remind people is because you maybe did a year or two ago, doesn't mean they may not go back. this is not related to future returns you have to be careful about. you have to worry about 2020 or maybe 2019

there were a lot of people taking risks because they knew the audit rates had come down so much >> that actually is good news. the no broken window sort of theory of law enforcement which i'm in favor of. if you want to make sure people are stealing, make sure they get caught. >> i moved back from california to here when i started cnbc. you can writing off a moving expense. making not much money, believe me, i was audited. they tell you. you have to say how high on the way up you do and smile while you're doing it they have absolute power it is like absolute power. what do they say about absolute power? that is what scares me >> a lot of the audits all of us are mainly w-2 earners. the real money is in all of the pass throughs which becky

reminded us with the pas throughs in the businesses and so much leverage to play games that's where the money is and that's where the problems are going to be. not the w-2. >> you don't see a lot of small businesses get audited if there are big numbers and big earns that are coming in let's take a look at the pass throughs a lot of pass throughs that are not small businesses people pretending they are small businesses. >> that's right. >> you are not scared, robert? >> i'm not >> no, you know, it's all w-2. there's third party reporting for all my stuff i'm not as lucky as andrew with all of the other stuff going on. >> who >> robert, hanks >> andrew. >> oh, yeah. okay all right. robert, thank you. when we come back, fed chair powell is going to take q&a at the conference today his message about inflation and

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good morning well come back to "squawk box. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. if you are looking at the futures, you cannot get much flatter than this. break a seven-day losing streak. this morning, it is down .40%. s&p barely down. dow futures are up by 3.5% yesterday, we brought you a conversation with an investor who launched an etf and now calling on chevron to boost production and slow spending on the energy transition plan

today, chevron has responded to "squawk box. we value all investors and input toward the goal of enhancing shareholder value. we believe our objective to safely deliver higher returns and lower carbon is aligned with the shareholder interest brief comment. vivik owns a small interest of the shares outstanding we have seen it before with exxon trying to get them to change to be more esg friendly that was successful with major investors. >> in the past, i mentioned to you that these guys have learned, guys and gals, have learned it is just easier to talk the talk. >> all of these are corporate gad. >> for the oil companies, they may or may not be fully on board with that. behind-the-scenes, i talked to them they say what are we supposed to do >> that is how you manage a

company. it is a political landscape and have corporate gad flies harass you at every turn. >> it is almost a religion you can't speak out. i don't recommend speaking out investors awaiting two big central banking events this morning. ecb at 8:15 and fed chair powell speaking at 9:10 a.m we have steve liesman joining us with the preview it is a weird day yesterday, steve. we were up early then we knew this wall street journal piece coming out at 75 basis points a lot of confirmation. there hasn't been pushback on that that was the gist of the article. it rallied throughout the session sharply. tell us what you know about all this >> there was a weird comment

that -- i don't know, scott wapner thought this turned the market around. the comment by fed vice chair lael brainard of the possibility of overtightening. i thought that was overstated in the hawkish speech by brainard talking about restrictive policy the market did turn around at 12:40 or 12:30 when that comment came out if the market seized on it the question of the morning, joe, if the european central bank joins the 75 club as christine lagarde battles inflation and euro trading at parity to the dollar threatening to import more inflation fed chair jay powell is in a better spot with the dollar surging against most major

currencies being ahead of the peers the bank of canada is ahead of the u.s. ahead of major central banks. ecb can go either way. the dollar is a factor the key is financial conditions. how tight are easy money in the economy? it was a loosening of conditions in the lead up to the jackson hole conference. jackson hole index that led powell to the speech with the talk from fed officials including powell led to the renewed tightening that is the dip and surge at the end of the graph there that seems to be more in line with the fed's outlook look at the fed market rate outlook. fed and market are closer than they have been futures market pricing in 3.80 by year end. that is where the fed's projection and going up to 3.90 by april the fed sees 50 or 75 in september is less important than the destination.

that is the restriction of around 4% funds rate for a time. powell will emphasize that point, joe, and i would not expect it today to squander the, you know, agreement there is between the fed and markets. >> 20th. it's coming up time flies when you are headed toward interest rate hikes, steve. doesn't it >> i mean -- it will happen again real soon. then i want to tell you, joe, how the market is priced here. it is priced for 50, 75 and 25 that's 150 on top of 230 do you know what rates were in march of 2022? >> you mean this year? 2022 >> yeah. >> tell me >> zero. >> oh, no. i thought you were going back

further to tell me 3.80 is not very high. >> that's another discussion that is probably true. most of the time fed funds is over 4% or has been at 5% for a while if you take out the anomolous that we lived through with the financial crisis. it was zero. this is a big increase probably as big as we had since volcker in 1980. up to 4% by year end or 3.80. >> thanks, steve. when we come back, the president of infosys will join us with the interesting take on the return to office debate. later, we will talk to draftkings ceo josh robins for the kickoff to the nfl season tonight. "squawk box" will be right back.

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time now for return to work update new york governor hochul lifted

the mask mandate for transit that brings the rules for transit in line for april. and andy jassy does not expect employees to return to office he said most have returned to physical offices he also said that amazon is now more open to remote work and recruiting employees from any location not just areas with a large presence >> i have to come in from new jersey i never take mass transit. there has been a mask requirement on the subways until yesterday? >> probably the least of their issues >> and buses all? everybody else stopped in april? it's september >> yeah. our next guest salesman dating workers to the office is

lazy three days a week with the business approach. robby kumar is part of infosys what do you mean it is a lazy approach you like to see everybody back all the time or a lot more flexibility? >> thank you, becky, for the opportunity to talk to you infosys is a global firm with 300,000 employees globally what i meant by lazy approach is to create a homogonous approach to come back to work for three days we went from five days to work to zero days to work that doesn't mean hybrid work means we should get three days a week that's because the original template before the pandemic was an evolved template which was a

flawed template. it was a flawed template because it served any industry and any type of work should be in a physical workplace forfive days i think that template is out the window we should start to look at what we have and what work is distributed and what work force is decoupled as they get decoupled and depending on the industry and function, you could be five days at work or no days at work productivity is not at odds are flexibility. productivity can be influenced with flexibility we have flexibility enforcing productivity that is real to me, that is going to define what the future of work is work force will be decoupled you could create much more productivity by being flexible and we should not paint a broad

brush and get people for three days a week. >> ravi, doesn't your business flourish when all goes back to work >> you know, we have 300,000 employees across the world we have been working hybrid, remote it is not impacted >> of course you're happy about this how about kids in school that haven't been to school in three years? we don't know where to start to try to get them back into a normal path. that doesn't apply to people in the work force >> the point i'm making is going to physical workplaces is real and needed as well you know, it helps with creativity and spontaneous innovation and collaboration and the ability to actually create

more learning. what i'm actually saying is that workplace is some work which needs to be five days as work. we need you to be at work. why you enforce people or mandate people -- >> interesting points you made is you think workers have not had enough say in developing policies that's interesting and that's reaction that a lot of people have had in the tight labor market what happens as unemployment starts to rise i've always had the sense that the bosses are coddling people now. they are only doing it because they have to right now >> so, becky, i would say the smarter ones will continue to keep flexibility as a catalyst for productive you know, companies like infosys

has more human capital during the hybrid model we worked to where people are. that is critical distribution of life and work is the new template that's not baseline to work before the pandemic. let's baseline to what is real and what is needed some industries will need five days at work some industries will not need any days at work some industries will need to build social capital all industries will need to build social capital you will have physical workplaces to build collaboration and culture and build social capital not forcefully bring people to work because we believe we can actually see them around and we could believe it is productive that is the point i'm making digital tools have made workplaces more effective. we could really work from any place or point

>> ravi, they are playing us out. ravi kumar, thank you for your time good to see you. >> thank you coming up, reaction to the apple the product lineup and comments from ceo tim cook that's my favorite i don't miss steve jobs. >> miss steve jobs, but tim cook has done amazing >> the company didn't skip a beat after wloe st steve jobs. we'll be right back. >> announcer: cnbc work is sponsored by airtable. connect data, teams and work flow this is how. th captivating a global audienc e. this is how. airtable. my dad was a hard worker. he used to do side jobs installing windows, charging something like a hundred bucks a window when other guys were charging four

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we've never said digital advertising is a bad thing what is not good is vacuuming up people's data when it's not, when they're not doing so on an informed basis that's what, that's what is bad. and so we're, we try to put the user in the driver's seat there to own their data. >> that's apple ceo tim cook speaking about the impact of the company's privacy policy apple unveiled a variety, yesterday, of new products, including a new lineup of iphone, apple watches and air pods joining us is gene munster, managing partner, in this environment, gene, we see companies that raise prices, and sometimes we like it, because it maintains margins, and it indicates that their product is near and dear and the demand is

inelastic, but other times we like it when companies are run so efficiently they don't have to raise prices. which is it here how did apple -- didn't you think they were going to raise prices and they didn't, is that good or bad? does that mean lower profit margins or that they've navigated this more successfully >> that's a great thing. 43% gross margins despite spiking costs, joe, and i think that is an indication that they're just masters in terms of multiplying the supply chain the maintaining of prices, it's essentially a price cut for consumers. this is a really surprise, a second biggest take away behind the satellite phone, and i think that's one of the reasons apple investors can sleep well at night is knowing that despite the costs they can maintain margins. i was very surprised to see it, and i think it ultimately is going to drive market share. just to put a finer point on that is apple's market share

globally has been hovering around the 18% for e phoiphone r years. i suspect the maintaining of pricing will increase their market share by a percent or two. might not sound hikelike much, t it means there can be fractional upside to the iphone numbers going into this, expecting a price increase was not my view i was apprehensive that they could have some struggles. i think in.b the back half of t year, that has been put back >> sales were not great this ex. some people might have applauded a price increase it's nice when companies can add to revenue but in your view it's a market

share move and they'll pick up more than they would have gained on any incremental rprice increases by taking market share away >> i think there would have been a dynamic, one side would have applauded that the other side would have said that's a dangerous thing to do going into the consumer mind-set going into the fall. i think they really threaded the needle here, they're going to peck up some share in the smartphone market. i think samsung had been raising their pricing. it was a big surprise for me >> tell me about the biggest thing, the biggest thing was the satellite phone? i'm one of these people who leave at 2:00 in the afternoon and get to the top of the mountain and say oh, my god's dark is that where you want to be rescued if there's no service?

>> that as how they marketed it. pretty adventurous people, back country skiers but i think this appeals to a broader base, and even in urban areas there can be time when is we don't have cell coverage. and i think what this is really speaking to is a sense of security it also plays in with apple's overall broader theme, some of the commentary that you had with tim cook earlier in the segment about how they think about data and privacy. they think of security and people's safety as one of their pole tent themes and in this case, the satellite phone, it's more about the average person it's not the back country skier but the average person, if i do get into a tough spot, i can message my way out of it that is the selling point. >> all right, both important if those are the most important things it does sort of say would you, there wasn't really anything else, one more thing.

but, you know. maybe next time. eventually there will be one more thing, i think, gene. they have a lot of money to play with >> thank you when we come back. maryland governor larry hogan will be here to talk inflation, student loans and more and new uk prime minister liz truss just announcing her plan to ease the henigh ergy cost and a plan to curb inflation by up to five percentage points. more details straight ahead. okay season 6! aw... this'll take forev—or not.

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good morning stock futures moving higher as investors look to build on its best day in nearly a month we'll talk about where this market is headed next and what the charts are telling us, too investors buzzing about apple's new products, but is the stock a buy? we will lay out both sides of the argument plus the governor of maryland larry hogan joins us to talk inflation, student debt and president biden's plan to fix it the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now >> good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq

market site in times square. u.s. equity futures at this hour kind of flat, but flat something, maybe something to be proud of after finally a snap back after seven straight losing sessions, and the nasdaq pretty good day yesterday. up another nine, ten points on the nasdaq dow jones up 38. s&p up about four. the s&p get back to close to the 4,000, talk to katie stockton a little bit later 39.79. at ten onto that, 39.90. right in the middle of the way the bet is made, whether we go to h4400 or $44600 and the crude, 82.45 a lot of people didn't think

wi we'd have an eight handle. but it is what it is $82, it's better than 120, but still sharply higher than a couple years ago and crypto bouncing a little you can see ether at just over 1600 let's get to dom chu he'll look at this morning's premarket movers >> what we've got is a check on where we stand with regard to big trades that may have a bearing on the rest of the markets right now. but we'll start with some of the news this morning with regard to stuff on the move in the semi-conductor business. that's because analysts at steeple have initiated coverage for a slate of computer chip companies. and advanced micro in nvidia we're going to watch those

shares they might convince micro's inroads that they've made. they like advanced micro among the three. nvidia and intel, they're more positive on longer term, but they think a little near-term dust needs to settlement so those shares on the hold side of things just put up the vaneck ticker, but a lot of folks like to look towards semi-conductors as a broader indicator of the tech sectors also watching what's happening overall with the rest of that technology trade, if you look at some these other moves mccormick, by the way, the biggest lagger, the spice maker, comes out and says that its sales and earnings in its current quarter that it's going to report are going to come in be below what they thought it was going to so mccormickshares about 6%.

i mentioned semi conductors. but the biggest stocks in the s&p and nasdaq posted solid gains yesterday led by microsoft, amazon, alphabet and tesla. we're seeing some fractional moves there, so we're seeing if we can build on some of these mega cap names if you take a look at some of these stocks, they have been more volatile than some would have expected given the interest rates. watch and see if it holds up that had be that will be a big thing. >> our next guest says this is the week of building global growth angst she is strategist, and the problems aren't new. is this just everybody's back to

work, back to school, back in the fall and this is when we start harping on the same problems and focussing a little deeper >> so i do think we have been focussing on the risk after global recession for a few months now and we have seen that reflected, specifically, in currency markets with the dollar continuing to rally up near 20-year highs versus several currencies that's really where you see this flight to quality magnified. i think over the weekend, the global growth angst built up a little bit further europe, with regards to the energy crisis with russia closing the flow of natural gas through the nord stream one pipeline indefinitely and questions building about winter in europe and how severe a potential recession there could be as well as some angst building in china with the extension of lockdowns and several important cities and the

true toll that that has been taking on confidence in the country, limiting any pace of re-acceleration. so we continue to see a lot of this angst building in currency markets. and this certainly tonight help the outlook when it comes to the local economies that fuels inflation in europe for example, leading partly to the ecb hiking rates later this morning, we think, by 75 basis points. and it certainly doesn't help the growth picture in the u.s. either, in terms of the economic picture, with trade weighing on growth or the earnings picture, with a stronger dollar, we think, weighing on profits of large multi-nationals, which has yet to be factored in. >> gabriella, add all that up. you think stock market's going to head lower from here or stabilize? >> we think this is a very difficult moment for the stock market as we continue to grapple with the cyclical issues around the probability of a global recession, a u.s. recession,

which is very dependent on what happens overseas as well as what happens here in the u.s. with fed policy and the stock market continues to also grapple with longer-term questions. coming out of the pandemic and into the next cycle, what is the real rate, and what does that mean for multiples, have we corrected them enough, and what does it mean for demand for certain sectors that saw such a huge boom during the pandemic. what's a more normalized earning stream for those companies so we're still grappling with some big cyclical and structural questions, and to us that means that the stock market is still due to see quite a lot of volatility in the fall before eventually resuming a new bull market later on. so for us it's still a bit too early to start taking on risk. we see a lot of clients wanting to do so, because we already have had a tough year and valuations have corrected. but on a broad basis we would still be underweight stocks and

high yield credit. >> when you say you see trouble this fall before a bull market continues down the road, do you mean later this year or next year and beyond? >> i mean over the difficulties or shall we say the question marks that we need to resolve, i think had largely get a lot of visibility this fall and into the winter we'll get more visibility as to where interest rates end up, not just at the end of this year, but into next year as well, which is the big question for these two structural and cyclical questions in the u.s. and more visibility around how europe is able to navigate the winter and how china plans to navigate covid after their important national people's congress on october 16th so i do think it's a choppier fall, but setting us up for a much, much better 2023 when it comes to tstock markets. i just think it's a bit too early to dial up the risk

exposure now >> so a warning for the near future gabriella, thank you we'll talk to you again soon >> thank you >> mm-hm >> what's wrong? >> i'm going to kill this fly. i can't wait until it lands close, because i'm going to kill this fly there's a fly. it's been all around, and i don't throw. is there a reason? >> is that why you were rliollig up the newspaper >> why is it attracted to me don't answer that. >> because you stink you know what flies like to eat. oh, did you get it governor larry hogan >> did you get it? >> i don't know. i might have on america's inflation battle. much later, apple pulling back the curtain on its newest products we'll get a break down on what investors are taking from the lineup we'll be right back.

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all right, welcome back, everybody. we have a special guest joining us on our set this morning to talk about inflation, student debt and more. we want to welcome governor larry hogan from maryland. g thank you for being here >> it's better than zooming in >> back to work.

>> great to see you guys are real life. >> usually people with money pay attention to you every morning and guys like me, we're focussed on the other news of the day >> let's talk about some of that other news of the day. we have seen some pretty serious issues the market's been down this year because of concerns about inflation, concerns about a down turn in the economy, lots of issues that are going on. what do you see in your state? >> our state is booming, but the concerns are legitimate. people all across america are concerned about inflation, prices out of control. supply chain issues. we've got to work on our domestic energy production, so our state, we're doing fairly well, we turned the economy around, we cut taxes eight years in a row by $4.8 billion we took 5 pld deficit, turned it into a $3 billion surplus and took our economy from 49th out of 50 states to number isix.

more businesses open but you still have people struggling people are dealing with the high cost of groceries and gasoline and worried about heating oil this winter. >> have the concerns come down as gasoline prices have come down were you one of the first governor, maybe the first governor to actually cut the gas tax in your state when gas prices started to go up. what have you done since >> i was the first governor america to suspend the gas tax just because we wanted to at least let them keep a few more dollars in their pocket as they were struggling. we called on the federal government to do the same. after six months of bugging them, president biden said he would do it, but it got nowhere in congress. i got together with 24 other governors pushing the biden administration to reverse their energy policies and allow for the keystone xl pipeline and more domestic drilling so we can continue to produce our own energy, i'm an all of the above

energy guy >> have you put the gas tax back on >> i had to get legislate i've prlegislative approval, and they did not want to extend it >> the concern about the slow down in the economy globalry, are you seeing any signs of that from where you sit, when you look at the tax receipts, what you hear from businesses, is it still a tight labor market >> i'll take the rest of the country, i think we are seeing that i think our state is doing better than most we're the highest median household income in america. most highly-educated workforce so we have ditfferent issues they're concerned about the slow down, concerned about the fact that even though we technically

have zero unemployment or full employment, i talk to people every day. >> you see different issues. >> this issue with student debt that president biden came out with, which i thought was a bad idea when we're in an inflationary period, but we've done things to try to make college more affordable. we the first in the nation to remove a requirement for four-year degree for thousands of state jobs. we've done a lot to work on apprenticeships and getting people skills that they need for the jobs of the future >> governor, since 2022 is coming up -- oh, it is 2022. but since november is coming in a matter of days at this point so we got that coming up, and then we have 2024 coming up, and i'm thinking about both the democratic party and the republican party and how fractured each one is. and i'm wondering, this is a

democracy, i know people think, they're worried about the democracy, i, myself, am not i think we're going to be fine but on the left you have a president, who some people don't want to run again, because they think he probably is past the point of where he's as effective as he would have been when he was younger. on the other side you have a former president who may be more powerful with his base after some recent events, and that leaves people with the prospect of a biden-trump rematch in 2024 >> and i think that's not something that the majority of the people in america want to see. about 70% of the people in the country would not like to see a biden-trump rematch, but i agree with you we've got the current administration, president biden moving too far to the left, not focussed on fixing some of the economic problems, and then you've got, instead of the republicans focussing on the concerns of the average hard-working americans, they're talking about mar-a-lago and trump and relitigating the 2020

election and i think, you know, the average person just wants them to focus on fixing the problems and caring about them. >> how do you see playing out? how do you see resolving it self >> you know t', it's not going happen overnight the extremes of both parties and the loudest, angriest voices are the ones that get all the attention, but most people in america want us to come together, work together and get things done. that's what we've done. >> trump made some dark speeches, but that was a pretty dark speech. >> i thought it was not only dark but very political. i thought both of them gave some pretty inflammatory speeches in the past week or so, and it's, again, that's all we're talking about on the news is trump and biden and crazy angry politic, calling each other names, instead of a positive hopeful vision for america >> do you think we're depleting

the spr is a good idea are we opening up our own ability to find hydrocarbons are we doing that enough here? >> i don't think we are. i'm for expanded energy production all across america. and i think we've got to reverse the policies of joe biden and get back to, you know, not being so reliant on foreign countries >> are you going to run for president, governor in. >>governor >> you know, i'm going to take a look at it when i finish my term next january i'll sit down with my family and advisors, i know i want to be a voice and play a role in getting the country back on track, but not sure exactly what that's going to be. >> if you had to pick three things you'd like to fix first, what would they be >> i'd like to fix the economy and crime is a big issue and education, those are the big concerns i mentioned, started a refund

the police initiative. backing the blue, something i've been focussed on for eight years as governor. we've turned our economy around. some of the things we've done in our state is exactly what we need to do in the country. >> biggest challenge that the country faces in terms of what joe just laid out? >> i think the biggest challenge is the toxic politics today. the fact that washington is completely broken. there's nothing but divisiveness and disfunction and nothing ever gets done and frankly both parties are to blame and we need serious leaders that will actually try to work together, work across the aisle. you can be passionate about the things that you care about, but you have to be willing to sit down and work with the other side that's what i've done in maryland as a republican governor with the bluest state in the country we've still cut taxes, grown our economy, you know, rebuilt, invested record amounts in our schools, cleaned up the

chesapeake bay, by working together in a bipartisan, common sense way. >> nationally, what would you run on tax policy >> i think the things that everybody in the country's concerned about is inflation, the cost of goods, the supply chain, economy good jobs. taxes are too high run on doing something about the crime and supporting the police. work on making sureparents hav more of a role in deciding about their kids' education. i think those are the, you have to run on every issue if you're running for president, but i think you do the same kinds of things i think we've already shown a better past forward in maryland. >> would you do anything with entitlements? >> i think you have to take a look at entitlements i haven't rolled out a detailed plan but that's a majorissue. >> can we read your lips? no new taxes? >> look, i ran for governor because my predecessor raised taxes 43 times in a row, and i

was a small business owner getting crushed, and i got frustrated enough to run in a place where they thought no republican could win >> you'd open offshore >> yeah, i think we have to drill more offshore and on shore and open up the pipeline and reverse almost all the energy policies of the biden administration >> walk and chew gum >> walk and chew gum. >> how do you fix inflation? what can government do to help >> i think the fed obviously has a role, and you don't want to just have a bunch of politicians mucking it up. but getting out of the way and letting the economy grow we rewrote 14,000 regulations and made our government unabashedly pro business and i think, you know, by cutting taxes and putting more money in people's pocket we passed the retirement tax elimination act so that people

on fixed incomes didn't have to move out of our state because they're being taxed too much i think there are roles to play at the federal, state and local government and actions that should be taken. but we've got to stop playing politics >> governor hogan, thank you for coming in today. >> governor, are you going to be raising money? >> are you thinking about donating >> no, not me. but you know one of the most successful hedge fund guys, da david tepper says get him to run. maybe you have similar characteristics. and i go, can i quote you? >> my hair, that's my strong suit i have this very clean look now. i used to have good tv hair. but that's great, i got my first thumbs up here you don't need anybody else. >> we're here with you today

we're going to make a note of that tell him i appreciate the good words. >> two ps >> you're lucky you came in today. that might be worth it right there regardless of what you said >> thanks for having me. a great opportunity. >> you can't fund the whole. >> i like this seat, maybe i'll just come fill in when andrew's out. >> coming up, we'll talk, we're going to talk technicals with katie stockton she's been almost dead on with some of her calls this summer. seriously, including a technical sell signal within the last two weeks. she said that would lead to a 7% decline. well, since that call, the s&p's down 6%. and tonight, football fact, watch the buffalo bulls take on the l.a. rams, eh.

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welcome back to "squawk box. the futures right now are at least two out of three, are in the green barely the s&p now up less than a point. could turn red and then the dow jones up about 18 points or so breaking news in the last hour uk prime minister liz truss unveiling her energy plan, lifting the ban on fracking and approving more drilling in a move to boost energy supplies. also in the plan a cap on energy bills that she says will curb inflation by up to five percentage points. she say it is will save the typical household more than $1100 a year in this government is moving immediately to introduce a new energy price guarantee that will give people certainty on energy bills. from the first of october a

typical house hold will pay no more than 2,500 pounds per year for each of the next two years while we get the energy market back on track. >> more on this story and the energy crisis in europe in just a bit. >> how does that work? we're going to cap it meaning the utility has to suck up >> i'm glad they're doing it so we can watch this experiment >> we're going to cap it meaning the government will pick up the excess >> that's the only way >> we're going to tell the utilities they can't charge any more >> i think the government will subsidize. >> which means the taxpayers will pick it up. >> they'll get it one way or another. >> the details are going to be very important with how this works. >> i mean, if you tell energy companies they can only charge this much, that's going to be a

problem. >> yeah, if they have high are input costs than output costs. >> talk technicals katie stockton expects the stock slump to continue through the first half of 2023 katie stockton, founder and managing partner of fair league strategy, how do we know we're on the cusp of something worse than what you've been talking about. there's a lot of reasons why you could see something like that. you've talked about below 3600 do we need a capitulation bottom that gets the vix much higher than it is or is it different this time and if we did see a 35 vix, what would that equate to on the s&p, and i guess that depends on how quickly it happens, but it could be worse than 3,000, couldn't it in >> it definitely could be. and the worry is that it's not

35 for the vix but 80, 90. so that would suggest that we certainly could have worse to come and i think really, what we're doing in our work is just trusting the downtrend and respecting the negative long-term momentum of course now the market has negative short-term momentum and we don't want to fight against that as much as we want the market to bottom just like everyone else, we don't want to get in front of it when it still has this downside momentum >> it's a little bit disconcerting that sometime technicals can inform fundamentals there are some people that think, all right, the bad news is kind of in front of us in terms of what the fed has to do, but if the technicals are telling us we could go much, much lower, then maybe we need to ratchet up the fierce about

w fears about what the fed is actually facing. >> one could argue that sentiment is actually too complacent concerning all the concerns out there and we look at our levels to understand what downside risk might be for major indeces like the s&p. it would be targeted by a rate down below 38.15, which is another level. we look for break downs to be confirmed. we always like to see a couple weeks below a level, especially a big level like that and to assign a new down side target. but that 3200 would be targeted by that break down as you know, 3815 isn't really that far away. we saw the relief rally in the summer very short-lived, very difficult to capture saw an immediate shift in market sentiment. that to me was somewhat

disconcerting that people are very willing to jump on board especially in the high growth arena. what we've seen is that it's leading to retests of support. so those names that had down tri tr trended came off their lows. now they're dealing with in some case more than a full retracement of their gains names like nvidia is the most high-profile example is one that took out the support from the summertime low >> it's a bear market, i guess, katie. i was just listening to you. when's the last time you said, well, on the upside we're looking at ha4200 as the first, you don't even talk about things above where we are that isn't part of the conversation we have with you. is that indicative of something? >> yeah, we haven't been focussed much on resistance. what's wild is that the s&p 500 and a lot of individual stocks

like microsoft for one, came right up into their down trending moving averages and pivoted right there. very precise resistance at those 200 days, and it make me think that there are a lot of eyes or a lot of computers with their ice on these levels, and that is still resistance we are always looking for stocks or etfs that are in long-term uptrends to generate ideas for our clients, and it's really hard to find those ideas right now. we recommended in the past few days, corn is an etf c-o-r-n and it was one of the few things we could find, and of course that represents corn prices. >> you talk resistance all the time about yields, which is also bad. talk about, whethat's that look like, ten-year >> they came right above that three and a quarter level. that's based on the 2018 high.

and for a breakout to confirm we want to see a couple weeks above that level and that would target 4% we do have some minor signs of upset exhaustion both in yields and also in the dollar these are based on the daily indicators, what they would suggest is that we have a two-week pull back in store for both >> anything to add on crypto when you talk equity, it's the same thing >> yeah t's , it's another riske and should be treated as such for now. town down trend will have their hold. the relief rally, it starts to feel like with this forthcoming merge that it could be a sell-the-news type of event. the relief rally has already lost some upside momentum and there's strong resistance there. >> oh, god okay, katie, thank you the urge to merge. the merge is, that's, it's above where it's sort of outperformed

nguyen bitcoin at this point. i think it's 1100 from where bitcoin was last time. but you see exhaustion there for that, okay thank you, katie stockton. excellent. the uk energy plan will be funded by the government it's going to cost the government tens of billions of dollars funded by government borrowing. that answers your question >> tens of billions of pounds. >> same thing right now. >> which is a news story itself. >> ivan mckay, there are no libertarians in an energy star foxhole. >> that's a first for him. when we come back, we are on crypto watch this morning. we're going to talk about where prices could be headed and what's being done on the regulatory front jon fort is here with a preview.

what's coming up >> i'll walk investors through both sides of the argument on whether the new proukt will be a hit. (vo) while you may not be running an architectural firm, tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you help others. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.

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custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. ♪♪ the ey entrepreneurs access network has a tremendous impact on my business because it's given me networks, access to capital, and access to opportunities. the level of coaching that i get has had a tremendous impact. it allows companies like mine and others to grow, and it closes the wealth gap in this country. apple yesterday unveiling the iphone 14 lineup, and the company largely did not raise prices with apple stock outperforming

the market this year until now, will the i phone 14 be a hit with investors jon fortt is here to weigh in. you're in person >> great to be here go when it cohere apple had a golden opportunity to raise prices here just a little bit, 50 bucks, they chose not to, with consumer slowing down that means they'll sell a good number of phones, but gross margins will probably get pinched, and investors won't like this at all apple does this avenuevery year last year's new iphone gets 100 bucks cheaper. so now you've got phones from 430 bucks to 1100 bucks. now when the economy was good, that worked out, with some consumers eager to trade down to a cheaper phone, though, it's going to be a liability.

with the phone likely to dampen international sales, they're going to get an iphone reality check, becky >> but apple did announce a lot of new features and high-end phones isn't that going to help things out a little bit >> well, on the other hand, this isn't tim cook's first rodeo it might look like on the surface that apple didn't raise prices, but they did in the smartest way last year there was an iphone 13 mini, smaller screen, this year with the 14, no mini. this time they have a plus, so bottom line, your entry price for the newest iphone just went up couple more factors to consider. apple intentionally loaded its higher end phones with the best feature this is year, even more than usual satellite sos, 48 mega pixel camera, always on-screen that's going to tempt people to the higher end models.

that's how you get customers to spend more without charging more even if margins are a little tight at launch as apple ramps production, they'll quickly smooth out and investors will be happy with this. >> did you see steve jobs' daughter poking a little fun at the new phone? she sent out something on instagram that had a guy who was wearing a shirt, opening a new shirt and saying this looks, actually like the one he's wearing saying this is me upgrading to the iphone 14 after the 13 basically it looks like the last one, nothing new >> i did not see that. >> yeah. >> how much stock does he have in apple she's going to look askance at tim cook >> she's probably got a lot in disney, you know, so once she starts mocking pixar >> give me either. >> she'll be in full rebellion at that point. >> i think she was trying to be

lighthearted, but she probably forgets that anything she says is going to be so -- >> if you had, you know, it was a tragedy what happened to her father, but tim's carried that, when you pass the baton to him, you'd probably be pretty happy if were you a member of the -- >> but steve wasn't exact ly a corporate button down guy. he sort of flew the pirate flag. you expect eve to be the same. >> on the other hand >> on the other hand >> coming up, we're going to talk crypto, plus the nfl is back a preview of the nfl season and sports betting opportunities with the ceo of draftkings and be sure to check out the bills and rams at 7:00 eastern time who were these people in the preseason? skaux

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boring and ceo anything earth-shattering in those comments what can we grlean from that >> for one, vice chair barr in his statement yesterday, he said stable coins need to come under the fed's supervision, under the premise that they may need to be it's about the size of a midsized regional bank stable coins are not a financial stability risk secondly, what he was doing was sending a message to congress, urging them to pass a piece of legislation currently being worked on by the house financial services committee please noente, no one has actual seen this bill but somehow vice chair barr is

involved in the negotiations i think we have some kind of a tail wagging the dog situation hear the fed needs to focus on monetary policy and leave the legislating to congress. we've always been clear with rules to the road for process, but this needs to be done in a transparent way. >> okay. this winter, this, maybe it's not a nuclear winter, but what we're seeing in crypto, will it resolve itself eventually? in your view, and is it as simple as the fed's in a tightening mode that makes crypto less attractive in terms of being, you know, there's a fixed amount, so we can print dollars. there's only 21 million bitcoin. when the fed gets tight, does that explain why we've seen these 60% loss in value almost across the board this crypto,

does that explain it >> crypto's volatile it's a nascent asset i do think it's important that we take a macro view of the overall market across the board on wall street all risk assets from equities to commodities have seen large price swings of volatilities over the past couple months. i do think there's a lot going on in our economy that's leading to volatility in the crypto markets, and i still think bitcoin, it's a hedge against these macro factors, like inflation. this is a largely misunderstood asset, and just to hone in another point here, for a decade, investors have been forced to navigate investing in crypto currencies alone, outside the existing financial advisors.

they have blocked avevery attem to bring one to market it's one of the largest conundrums >> what would the sec need to see from other regulators or congress to feel that that was something that finally had its time, the etf? whe what would allow them to feel good about that, do you think, in your view >> in my view, i don't know if there's any other information that could be provided to the sec. we've studied this issue in detail, spent the whole summer diving into what happened at the sec. how come over 16 companies, including some of the most respected institutions have all been denied the opportunity to offer a spot, bitcoin etf.

and the sec has placed requirements only to bitcoin on this industry. there are companies suing the sec under discrimination, because of this. so i think at this point, it's less about being able to provide data to the sec about their concerns and it looks like it's more of a political play >> do you feel, just, and technical reasons, periann we've seen pull backs before that are very similar to this in bitcoin over the last ten, 12 year do you think the stock market or risk assets or when we finally see a bottom there, is that when you think bitcoin will finally bottom and will it coincide with the fed finally, you know, having done all of its work in raising rates, is that how long this could last and what kind of number are you talking about, potentially, on bitcoin, is 10,000 a

possibility? >> i've always been, yeah, i mean, i've always been very long on bitcoin i think we're close to the bottom at this point bitcoin has traditionally followed cycles to its halveing. it is kind of unique where we've seen a lot more correlation for bitcoin directly to, to the markets over the past couple of months, but historically, it's been non-correlated to the stock market, so these are unchartered territories, unlong bitcoin. this is a marathon it's not a sprint. and i do believe that one day bitcoin will be globally recognized as a reserve asset. >> okay. periann, thank you >> good to see you, joe. >> coming up, jason robins joins

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good morning stocks have struggled to continue the rally we saw yesterday. that first rally in seven days futures are muted after the best day in nearly a month that we saw. breaking economic news, the european central bank ready to announce its latest decision on interest rates and the global markets are watching plus the uk's new prime minister takes steps to deal with the growing financial crisis the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square.

i'm becky quick with joe kernen. andrew is off today. keep ag keeping an eye on the u.s. equity markets dow futures are up by about 13 points s&p down by about a poichblt yesterday the nasdaq was up by 2 .1%. treasury yields have come back down a little bit after hitting new highs. w we've been getting headlines out of the uk. intere doctors are concerned for the health of queen elizabeth. she is said to be comfortable at balmoral where she's been staying this summer. liz truss unveiling her energy plan that lifts the ban on fracking and allows more drilling in a move to boost energy supplies. also is a cap on energy bills that she says will curb inflation by up to 5 percentage

points and will save the typical household more than $1100 per year >> this government is moving immediately to introduce a new energy price guarantee that will give people certainty on energy bills. from the first of october a typical household will pay no more than 2,500 pounds per year for each of the next two years wha while we get the energy market back on track. >> the plan will cost the government tens of billions of pounds it's to be funded by government borrowing. in the meantime, gamestop is doubling down on crypto currencies gamestop will start carrying ftx gift cards in some stores and ftx may sell other goods in the future in other movers, dom chu is back with those.

>> some analyst calls are driving some of the bigger premarket moves. we're going to start with shares of moderna higher by 2%. roughly 20,000 shares of volume. the target price goes to 165 it was 155 analysts are positive on some of the new orders that have come in for the covid vaccines and some of the bigger stock buybacks next up a slate of solar stocks. first solar, maxeon solar. a double upgrade they've downgraded shoals from sell to buy. this is due in part to expected benefits and leverage to the

inflation reduct shun act. we are watching billi billi. and other u.s. chinese internet traded stocks, can you see netease, pinduoduo and baidu down likely in sympathy with those moves. we'll keep an eye on chinese internet give within what's happening with bhilli billi >> does billi billi mean anything to you? >> i keep thinking buck rogers >> i keep thinking louie l

>> the futures at this hour a little higher if you're looking at the dow up by about 25 points, but the nasdaq's down slightly the next guest says the bear market offers a great opportunity for long-term investors the let's talk with noah black stein i always look forward to hearing from you when everybody else sign zigs, u zag. >> you can be optimistic for two reasons.

one, you're a contrarian, or you're operating on a different time horizon and i think the excess returns, these are opportunities where you say to yourself, who's been executing, who's been delivering, who's still got growth that's been able to, through what we're going through, not only through covid but the ripple effects of covid and complete insanity on the policy front and the geopolitical front, who's been executing, and as things calm down will those stocks be the leadership stocks coming out of it i refer to new leadership not as sectors but as companies certainly the lessons we learned in 2002 and 2008 and '09 is to work even harder to find those companies. these are the opportunities that the market provides you. that doesn't mean the next five

days or the next five months are going to be fantastic. but certainly the outlook over the next three to five years, and this is where you make your money today for the next five years. >> so noah, what do you like in do you have a shopping list? >> we've been looking at all different areas health care, technology, software, in the retailing space, companies have been hit hard with the overstimulus, with the stimulus money and caught short on supply and supply chains, but there have been companies in the restaurants and retail space like lulu who have been able to calm down and deliver not only on that growth but obviously given how dim things look in a lot of the retail space, we'll also continue to have signific significantly less competition and that's also true in

e-commerce, those companies that have attracted customers during the pandemic and kept those customers. a difficult comparison with e-commerce, that's not going away secular growth online is not going away the opportunity is being provided for you if you're willing to look or certainly there. >> you know, the counter argument so that is look, the fed is going to have to raise rates higher than anticipated. that's why you have to keep them there longer than anticipated. that's going to drive unemployment higher than people are expected for you we talked about this earlier today, there's a column out from jason furman where he looks at some of these issues he was a former top economic adviser to the obama administration he said we could be looking at 6.5% unemployment for a couple years before the fed's able to get inflation back to 2% or 3% does that change your outlook for any of this, noah? or you really have a much longer

timeline three to five years is a long time to wait >> i certainly have a longer time horizon i will remind everyone where inflation was last year and how everything that was coming was supposed to be transitory, and now we're in a prolonged struggle and everyone's turned themselves into paul volker. the reality is prices have come down significantly i wouldn't be surprised that the year on year numbers turn negative we've seen collapse in a lot of things and supply chains are beginning to ease. i think the fed doesn't want to make the mistakes of the 1970s most of the fed members were in their 20s in the '70s. they weren't around in the '50s, in the most war, post stimulus world war ii era and the '40s and '50s where inflation was much more volatile the risks are, for me, as

always, the federal central bank mistake. they've tightened a lot in a very, very short period of time. they talk about financial conditions, which, you know, i'm not sure where this has entered into the narrative of it's important to tighten financial conditions, even papers on their own website written by their own analysts suggest that targeting the conditions is not asymmetric, it can cause real problems on the down side and not much on the upside they seem to be grasping at straw as little bit here it's clear that the inflation numbers are beginning to easement does that prevent central banks from going way too fast it's always a big risk for me, and the uncertainty of russia is a big risk, but those are things that you have to take into consideration of where the stocks trade, what's the price and what's the future growth opportunity. it's certainly not without risk, that's for sure.

>> you name add couple of names. lululemon, chipotle things you like. are you talking the walmarts and targets of the world kohl's, nordstrom? >> you can look, there are a lot of companies that bounced really hard, you know, that walking dead rally of november '21, you had high impact of retailers that were doing really poorly before the pandemic that doubled or tripled within a short period of time. i don't know and so like you can see in the numbers of american eagle, the gap, in the numbers of the companies that split apart from limited brands and other ones like that. they were struggling before the pandemic they had a little bit of a bounce on stimulus checks, and now with supply chains and other things they're under severe pressure i'm not hookilooking for turn

arounds. i'm looking for companies that have been able to work under difficult conditions >> appreciate the alternative view this morning. good to see you. >> coming up, the ecb decision on rates we'll bring you the headlines and the global market reaction and join the most powerful investment event of the year at cnbc's delivering alpha returns in person on september 28th. among the amazing sessions, i'll be sitting down withstand druckenmiller. if you want to be in the room where it happens, head to deliveringalpha.com or scan the qr code to register to join us in person. stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back. how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton.

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every search you make, every click you take, every move you make, every step you take, i'll be watching you. the internet doesn't have to be duckduckgo is a free all in one privacy app with a built in search engine, web browser, one click data clearing and more stop companies like google from watching you, by downloading the app today. duckduckgo: privacy, simplified. welcome back to "squawk box. the futures right now, you can see they're mixed. up 11 on the dow

but the s&p up around plus or minus a point. let's get to steve liesman with the latest on the ecb decision steve? >> joe, the european central bank joining the 75 club, raising interest rates by 75 basis points so it goes on the deposit facility from zero to 75 basis points that is positive for the first time in a very long time on the bench rate, 1.25 from 50 basis points reading here, the interest rate will be set as of september. that's principal news i'm reading here the u.s. federal reserve bank going by 75 basis points here twice. so we will see at the press conference coming up at 8:45 the extent to which kristine

lagarde, the ecb president addresses the difference in interest rates across the european central bank spectrum, how the ecb is processing the potential cutoff of gas or the actual cut-off of russian natural gas and the inflationary component. plus another issue is what happens is european governments end up doing pretty massive subsidies to the public about the issue these, to subsidize the natural gas price increase and the inflationary or potential inflationary impacts of that. 75 basis points. for the first time, i think since the ecb existed, 75 basis points here, joe, and trying to get, i guess in front of this, i'm interested here, just looking at the dollar index, which was 109. and it's pretty much unchanged the injeuro unchanged

a touch lower on the u.s. interest rate complex there. and stocks, let's see, futures, kind of unchanged, too, joe, so this looks to be fairly well priced in, looking at this market it was somewhat divided futures market, i think a 70% probability of the 75-point basis point hike and kristine lagarde and the ecb delivering on that. >> we had a slight bounce in all the equity markets the dow was up two seconds ago. we don't want any central bank to have their head in the sand it make it is difficult for multi-nationals to do business think if you're a trader okay, so you got that, then you think, wow, everybody's got to raise rates to deal with this inflation, and we are just in a

tightening cycle anything that we talk about, you can look at in one way or another, but we are in a tightening cycle with increases that we haven't seen here in years and as you just said, never in the ecb before. >> yeah, it needs to be done, joe, and you know, we used to talk a lot about central bank coordination, and that's on the way down when there's room to cut. they talked about that but right now it's sort of every bank for itself out there. the u.s. has led the way raising rates, and now canada has been very careful to remain in lock step with the u.s. european central bank kind of was dancing to its own tune. i think could you argue that it was even later than the fed was in terms of hiking interest rates. and japan of course is in some other planet or universe when it comes to what's happening with both inflation there and with its central banks. so you can't count on them i think, joe, europe is a bit of

a mess now when it comes to the possibility of recession, and the question we have to ask ourselves is how much of that ends up in sort of washing ashore here when it comes to the u.s. economy they have all sorts of issues over there, higher inflation, probably a deeper recession. as you know, the bank of england, joe, uncharacteristically forecast a recession in its latest forecast >> so they're going, okay, we're going to pay for your energy, you know, whatever, if it's too expensive, we're going to basically subsidize it so inflation is going to be lowered, but how does that work? so the consumer won't have the inflation, but the government's got to print money to cover what the consumer doesn't have, so how is that is how is that, it's more finflatio down the road. >> as your dutiful "squawk box" reporter, i tried to report that story in jackson hole and tried

to have some conversations with european central bankers about that, and they didn't want to talk about it. i brought up this issue, if you end up subsidizing, that ends up a fiscal impulse which ends up being inflationary on the other side, and they were like, uh huh, uh huh. >> buying sweater stocks canada oose, there's a couple other sweater companies, because they're going to set the max number temperature over there at like 65 degrees, eventually, because they don't -- >> don't the irish make great sweaters, joe? >> i think so. >> joe, don't the irish, they make terrific sweaters, but if coy i could just be serious for a second >> i am serious. >> of course you are it's not crazy to think that one of the things that propelled the ecb toward this higher rate hike, the 75 rather than the 50

was the concern about the inflationary impact of this. we have to watch germanycould do a big fiscal spend and others as well in terms of subsidizing this and i think that adds to the inflationary impact rather >> liesman, lies maniacs thank you. >> when we come back, draftkings ceo jason robins on the start of the nfl season and the big business of sports betting. stay tuned

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the nfl season kic kicks off tonight with the bills and the rams and the start of football sports betting it's a great game, on nbc. buffaloes great, back to the scene of the crime against the bengals, too, jason. that is one cool stadium i was in it, and terrible things happened there, but that is one very cool stadium. you must be excited about the season baseball's, i've been doing it, but it's hard. it's hard to do draftkings with baseball every day, you know, the worst team in the world can beat the yankees or houston on any given day. >> yeah. it's almost like the nfl

i mean, i love baseball, but nothing like football season this is such a great time of year, and what a great way to kick off, with the thursday night game, we're running an awesome promotion where either team, you bet on either team, if they go up by sevenfi a at any n in the game you get paid out right away >> i didn't see that is the maximum $25 in. >> i don't know what the max is, i have to check, but you should check it out it's a cool promotion. >> speak >> speaking of promotions, there is a lot of competition which makes it hard to make a lot of money. how's that going now the heavy days when things were getting legalized in multiple states it's a tough business right now. where are you in terms of how much money you're making, what kind of growth you expect to see and how expensive is that

growth >> well, the growth has been tremendous we had a huge quarter last quarter, looking forward to a big back half of the year. i actually think it's quite different this year. i think last year around this time it was very much around the way you're saying. it was sort of the peak of it almost, last nfl season. but it's much more rational now. a lot of competitive spending is really tapered and, you know, i think companies are moving more towards a path toward profitability, whereas last year that wasn't even a discussion at this point so, you know, i think that that's kind of where the plarkt i is, there's a big land grab. the growth is still tremendous as we move toward our path of profitability we're still expecting really big growth numbers. that's not going to slow down. and it's kind of gone where we thought it would and i think this year's way more rational from a competitive standpoint were so the more states that open up the draftkings, is that

important? on that path or is that solely what you need? or innovation? or what else do you need >> i think it's really more execution. obviously more space will help us grow our top line it also means more investment, though, so we've often said that if hunyou had no new states come out we'd get pretty profitable quickly. they start to kick off real cash flow we have several states, ten that should be contribution profit. we have kansas which launched a week ago. it's less about new states from a profitability standpoint definitely from a market size and ultimately top line standpoint, it's about new states, but right now we're gro growing quickly in the states we're in and our path to profitability is not really about more states but how big can the business get

>> you probably saw uncut gems, the late great james c amaan. is the stigma lessening? i guess it's the vice versus the personal freedom debate that we have all the time. does anyone make money long term i don't think so but -- >> the house >> yeah, the house but we spend a lot of money on alcohol, too, that's not good for you, but you do it because you enjoy it and it costs money. i kind of think gambling is the same thing >> it's the same as going to the movies or, you know, going out for a nice dinner. the only difference is you might end up winning money and be up on the night whereas most entertainment activities, you spend. >> i think there's a lot of misconception about their whole debate, because what people sometimes fail to note is this is not an activity that doesn't

exist today in every single state across the u.s there are millions, tens of millions of people gambling in the illegal market right now those people are not protected in any way by regulations. those companies are not paying taxes that help fund, you know, important things >> right >> so all we're really doing is taking an activity that's already occurring, tens of millions of people across the u.s. are already participating in and putting it in a legal framework and allowing consumers to be protected. and our responsibility of course is to make sure that we're at the leading edge of that we invest a lot in responsible gaming programs, partner with other companies and with the ega, we build models to help us identify people and we have trained people on our side that can intervene when necessary so we have a lot of tools to really help people, and i think that's a huge plus of being in a legal regulated market that you don't see in the offshore market >> you can have fun with $5.

people say i'm a loser because i only bet $5. it's the same. doesn't matter if it's 5 or 50 can you do it within a framework where you're not hopefully going to get -- i won $120 on a $10 bet last night the tigers, dodgers, white sox and the tigers rallied in the top of the ninth >> i thought you said baseball was hard >> it's hard, that's after losing like 15 straight times. it's a big game on tonight can you watch it on nbc, buffalo and those dreaded rams that killed my bengals. thanks, jason. we'll see you. weekly jobs numbers hitting the tape >> this jobless claims, we dropped 10,000 to 222,000, that is the lowest level on initial claims going all the way back may, may 27. and when we look at continuing

claims, 1,473,000, going the other direction. april fools. that's last time we're up at these levels with regard to continuing claims that have been for the most part a little b better behaved but it calls into question of how the tight labor market is going to figure into how investors and economists handicap the economy we all know jason furman wrote an op ed today about the tools that the fed is going to continue to use to try to assess the little of pricing pressures. so these are very important issues we all saw what the ecb did and their yields are barely higher after a lot of volatility. maybe it wasn't widely expected by everybody, but all traders i talked to thought lagarde had little choice but to go fast and

hard all were lower today again until the volatility of the last 45 minutes or so which has two year and three-year notes going in and out of negative and positive territory with respect to their yields, but i would continue to stress that we have turned the corner a bit after that august 2 of speech after the chairman of the fed. and equity markets thrown into a tizzy that seems to have moderated to some extent back to you. >> steve liesman joins us right now with more. steve, what do you take out of these numbers? >> yeah, you know, rick is right to point out this difference, which is interesting, between the continuing claims and the weekly claims. and i'm looking here looks like continuing claims are up by about a million here, 1.3 million and 1.47 million a little more than that, actually which tells you that people are being laid off and spending a little bit of time in the being

jobless before getting rehired but the inputs, the weekly inputs to the jobless claims numbers are low, and it suggests that job market remains tight. the fed wants to see a softer labor market, yesterday it was suggested that there was maybe some softness but maybe not a whole lot in an overall tight labor market the question is, as furman raises, how much softness do we need in order to get inflation under control? i still believe putting people to sworwork is not inflationary it would increase supply in a lot of areas that are shorter supply both in the service sector and the goods sector. so it's not clear to me that that is an inflationary problem. but the fed wants to see softer labor. coming up, judy shelton on the fed, the ecb and what the uk's new prime minister is doing to deal with high energy cost and the sluggish economy

stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

an update on the british monarchy buckingham palace says doctors are concerned for the health of

britain's queen elizabeth ii prince charles, the heir to the british throne is now with the queen after she was placed under medical supervision. prince william is on his way to the royal family's summer residence in scotland. it's not the first time we've heard the british queen has been placed under medical concerns and medical watch. this is the first time we've seen them rush to her side like this >> yes wish her well. wes wish her well. the europe an central bank raising interest rates judy shelton, a senior fellow and federal reserve board nominee, the author of "money meltdown". i'm surprised, judy, that there has been some real positive feelings from different, i guess different sectors about the new uk prime minister in terms of

how she plans to deal with the sluggish economy and high energy prices i don't know about these subsidized price caps she's going to put on. but some people are saying near term you can't worry about that. but long term, do you think there's reasons for hope in terms of less regulation, more pro-growth initiatives like lower taxes and less government spending are you optimistic >> i am. i think there's real reason to hope for new chancellor of the -- and the opinion piece for the financial times earlier this week, and he said they will have an unashamedly pro-growth approach for the economy and emphasizing lean government, which i think is a great theme and lower taxes, less regulation, showing special

respect for entrepreneurship and small business, and they want a productive economy, and they see that as the best way to provide more opportunity and shared prosperity >> basically, everything that we're not doing here >> basically everything that we're starting to turn away from unfortunately, the price cap, i presume that that is a political tradeoff for increased fracking, which they have also said is going to be one of their pursuits price caps never work in the long run can you ask anyone who ever lived in the soviet union. but i think they just felt that they had to give some sense of security regarding keep your costs, to heat the homes for the citizens, and they did put a limit of two year on it. so as i say, probably was one of those tradeoffs, but it's

essentially a conservative pro-individual, business-friendly approach that we can expect to see >> judy, how we got here, not withstanding, are you in favor of the fed and the ecb's, these are, these are pretty outsized interest rate hikes that we're seeing, and we haven't seen it very often historically, it's going to hurt, and jason furman, among others, pointing out there's going to be higher unemployment than we would like, maybe for a couple of years. but are you in favor of these actions to try to make sure that we don't let inflation get too ingrained in the economy >> well, i think more people working is a good thing. i think we are looking at a supply side issue. so if higher rates cause businesses to fold and people to get fired, i don't see how that

helps resolve inflation caused by too little output i think it doesn't make much sense to, to engage in monetary tightening if you don't have a handle on reckless fiscal policy so, so you have right now monetary fiscal working against even other they should be -- >> we're not going to get a handle on that, at least not for a little while and are you saying you wouldn't raise rates right now? you're not going to get the supply side cures that you're looking for, not where we currently. so are you saying the fed should not be raising rates or now that we're already faced with this, they have little choice than to take that action? what are you saying, exactly >> well, i think, look, i'm in favor of the revolution in

monetary policy. i think we've allowed the fed to be the center of the universe and that brings to the forefront these types of conversation and get obsessed with 75 points in september and another 50 and another 50 or will it be three increases of 50 and the remaining three fed fomc meetings this year. i'm disturbed that it comes down to this, because i don't think that just raising interest rates is the answer. i think, as i said, these other issues, trade and tax policy energy policy. less regulation. all of those things would do so much more to have a productive economy and instead we have the fed trying to crush demand, so no, i'm not happy with continuing to increase rates, because i don't think low unemployment is inflationary, and i don't think growth is inflationary but i understand that because we

fixated on the messaging from the fed, the fed feels it has to live up to this tough approach and we see the ecb having to raise rates, finally, they have a positive interest rate going to a 75 basis points, but they're still considerably behind our own interest rate, and so there are still effects on the dollar and euro >> when it happened last time, we saw what volker had to do there's a lot of historical parallels. there are a bunch of crappy policies that resulted in the mess we were in in the '70s and early '80s, too. and we had to do that. i don't know whether you think the economy, there are people who think the economy would have stabilized even if volker hadn't done that. but it was followed by reagan and the pro-growth policy. so you kind of have both you probably didn't like 21.5% prime rates, but you liked what

reagan came in and did and that fixed a lot of things for decades to come in my view is there any way that can happen again? or are we going to be stuck with interest rate increases but not the pro-growth policies after that >> that's the worst of all worlds, and i would certainly welcome a change along the lines of the reagan revolution, which was based on supporting entrepreneurship and supply side-oriented growth growth is really the answer and gets us out of a lot of problems so that's why raising interest rates can fuel kill growth and doesn't seem like a good solution we had cappss and price fixing d it didn't work for us either those aren't the answers but it needs to be a whole approach that includes monetary policy with one goal, to provide a meaningful unit of account, a

reliable honest measure. so that people can plan their lives, and i think that's a basic intellectual framework that we're missing from this fed, and it would be better if we had a notion of sound money and sound financing going hand in hand. so that would mean more prudent government i would love to see working toward a balanced budget and monetary policy goal not to be driving this plane, i'm uncomfortable with everyone talking about a soft landing as if chairman powell is in charge of our destiny that should not be the case. we should rely on the private sector and unleash the energies and the talents of all the people through opportunity, but we need a stable monetary foundation to, to enable that. >> i thought we learned that one other time what we need, judy, but you never learn. every generation needs to learn again, i think reagan said

something like that. it's very fleeting, the lessons learned and then you have to start all over again. >> and no one's teaching anyone that stuff >> good to see you, joe. get that fly >> i've still got this fly do things reincarnate? do you think is someone that i messed nun a past life >> maybe it's karma. >> when we come back, the ceo of jeep will join us with his road map for taking the auto maker electric and can you join the most powerful investment event of the year as cnbc's delivering alpha returns in person on september 28th in new york among our special guests, i'll get the opportunity to sit down with carlisle founder david rubenstein and paula volen

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welcome back to "squawk box. we've been watching the futures, a little weaker right now, not massive but dow down about 20 points let's get to corporate news. jeep rolling out its ev plans today. phil lebeau is in the house and joins us with a special guest. >> it's good to be here. we have the ceo joining us let's take a look at some of these vehicles you have four of them, we won't see all four, but we'll see at

least the jeep recon and some of the other models or images of what you're planning on rolling out by 2024. give us some perspective on what the game plan is >> good morning, phil. it's very exciting to be with you today. it's a big day for us. we're showcasing the technology associated with jeep it's a big opportunity it's a major, major opportunity for us it's a way for us to make the jeep even more jeep, even more capable, even more fun, and bringing in more freedom think about what you can do off road with a wrangler, doors off, top off, and almost silence. so a lot of opportunity for us, so once again, a big opportunity for us we've been showcasing that with

the wrangler, which is the number one in america and in europe, our number-one lev a big, big success we have three cars -- yes, sorry. >> i was going to say, i want to talk about the capabilities in just a little bit about evs off road and the market for that but i have to ask you about jeep sales because under sergio, when fiat chrysler really pushed jeep starting in 2008 all the way up through the beginning of the merger with peugeot, sales were red hot bup it's been a challenging last couple of years. do you look at this and say, okay, yeah, we did have some challenges but we think this is the roadmap to reignite those sales? >> just think about it in 2009, we're selling 300,000 jeeps globally, and in the last five years we've been selling between 1.2 million and 1.5

million globely. in the major markets like north america, we've kept growing. they represent almost 6% of the total market in north america, represent more than that in south america, in italy our largest market, 5% of the total market we're growing. obviously, there's been a few chip shortages and a few issues we've had to deal with, but at the same time, our icon, the wrangler, is breaking records, the grand chir kerokee is boomi and growing every month. we have 20% of the market in the u.s., number one in the segment. so, no, the brand has tremendous momentum the consideration for the brand is booming right now we have very good sign for the future think about it, 20% of the baby boomers, which obviously buy a lot of cars right now, are very

familiar with the brand and keen on purchasing jeep it's 50% fto buy a jeep. talk to a high school student. what do they dream about a jeep, a jeep, and an electric jeep >> we're running up against a hard open. one point, you're right, jeep has great brand appeal, but are you able to sell a jeep, ev jeep, for under $50,000, say closer to $40,000 or $45,000 because the knock on echs is not just what you're planning on rolling out but all evs is the price points are simply way too high right now, and that's going to limit the amount of sales >> the cost of the battery will go down, the chemistry is improving and in a few years we'll be able to offer much more

affordable evs at the same time, we'll bring electrification down to smaller segments where the price is more sensitive and will be able to do so what is very critical for us is to get support from the government for that period of transition until the battery and the cost goes down, which is really good news that the government in the u.s. announced that new plant for electrification. that will be very supportive of all the efforts towards electrification. we're going to bring a component of affordability they will be low priced, and that's why we're not bringing the smaller vehicle to the u.s. that would be probably too expensive for the size of the vehicle in the american mark >> christian, i hate to wrap it up because i could talk about jeep going electric all day long we will talk with you more in the future a big day for jeep christian meunier, ceo for jeep. 2024 they go into production

big couple years for jeep and all the automakers if they roll out the new models >> he says imagine what you can do in a jeep with no windows, no door, and you sneak up on them because they can't hear you coming are we talking wildlife or something else here? >> i'd to take one of those truly off road and see how they perform, not just jeep, but all evs. >> faster torque >> rockif it's rocking don't coa a-knocking >> that's what i was saying. this is all you. >> if the van's rocking, don't come a-knocking. >> it's a jeep phil, thanks tomorrow don't his our live interview with the ceo of intel. president biden will be at the groundbreaking of the country's new microchip factory in ohio. we'll be right back. to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do.

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♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq a final check on the markets on this day where the nfl season opens on nbc tonight

things have gotten worse recently, down almost 890 on the dow. the 10-year, which we should check before we head out, and oil, the 10-year at 3.27 oil hasn't been the issue at this point and the dollar responding to some of the moves out of the ecb. we'll have our own situation on the 20th and 21st. join us tomorrow we'll be here. "squawk on the street" is next good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla at the code conference in beverly hills, california david faber and mike santoli at the nyse ew york stock exchange cramer has the day off goldman says the fed will likely raise this month claims to 222k and of course, david, we have powell in just a few moments.