good thursday morning, welcome to "techcheck," i'm carol quintanilla. jon fortt is back in new york. pretty fascinating day in global markets. reversing early losses following fed comments reiterating the commitment to bring inflation back to argument ecb raises 75 basis points goldman thinking the same in september. we are monitoring the health of queen elizabeth. we'll turn to shep smith. >> reporter: we got word about four hours ago the queen's doctors were concerned for her health, the 96-year-old currently at valmoro castle. she's not hospitalized but buckingham palace released this statement following further evaluation this morning the

queen's doctors are concerned for her majesty's health and recommend she remain under medical supervision. the queen remains comfortable. that particular statement remains comfortable is a break from anything we've heard previously of the queen from the palace in recent months, in fact, the palace has said, frankly as little as possible so this language is seen as significant. the heir to the throne, prince charles is with his mother, we're told, and prince william and prince harry, and meghan markle, the tduke and duchess o sussex are en route. minutes ago the bbc reported a flight has arrived at aberdeen airport with members of the royal household all headed to balmoro. the queen pulled out of a virtual meeting after her doctor advised her she did need rest. this is a live look at aberdeenshire in scotland where some in the royal family are said to be arriving. the day before, tuesday, the queen welcomed the new prime

minister liz truss, a short time ago ms. truss tweeted the whole country will be deeply concerned. notes were passed at parliament this morning, the leaders of the parties receiving word of the queen's health and notably bbc 1, about two hours or so ago, switched from regular programming to rolling news coverage. so the queen rests comfortably, her family goes to be with her, and our own wilfred frost is live for us across the pond. early at -- or midafternoon london time. wilf, what can you tell us >> shep, as you're already suggesting this is clearly a striking and sobering moment for the nation because it's being taken much more seriously than any of the other health issues the queen might have had over the last couple of years two key distinctions you've already alluded to, the first that statement from the palace whereas in the past as you said they've said nothing at all, or

guided people towards just the fact that it was mobility problems today they are not guiding just to that. and made this very special and unexpected statement saying that doctors are concerned for her. the other point that all senior members of the family are traveling to be by her side. prince charles and camilla already there, as is one of her other children, princess ann, while prince william and prince andrew and prince edward, of course a grandson and two other sons expected to be by her side shortly having just landed at aberdeen airport as you had just mentioned. clearly this is a serious situation, shep, and you could grasp the level of seriousness earlier in parliament, in fact, when the news spread amongst mps during debates and soon afterwards we heard from the prime minister liz truss who said the whole country will be deeply concerned by the news, my thoughts and the thoughts of the

people across the united kingdom are with her majesty the queen and her family at this time. the last time we did see her, shep, was when she appointed her 15th prime minister liz truss just two days ago. >> wilf, we've just received a statement from the former prime minister tony blair who tweeted it is deeply concerning. he says my thoughts and prayers are with her majesty the queen and her family at that worrisome time she's dealt with a number of health issues along the way but we've never seen anything quite at this level and it comes at a time when britain is in a world of turmoil its currency is at a 40 year low, great concerns about what a long cold winter could bring with troubles of course and a war in europe. times are difficults and queen has always been such a rock of stability, never issuing her own opinions, but offering comfort

to a nation in difficult times and now those times surround her majesty herself. >> absolutely right. and you mentioned a keyword there in comfort obviously the actual issues, the currency, the war is not her reemt, that's for the head of government, the new head of government, her 15th liz truss. as head of state she provides a stability that's above politics, above it all, and makes her a constant to britains that have known nobody else. and that's a steadiness which she has provided cannot ever be overstated she has done a remarkable job at that throughout her 70-year reign and of course her 96-year life and we hope she continues to do so and as you said she -- the statement says she is in comfort. i would also say as well just two days ago was carrying out

official duties, which are whatever way you frame this, whatever happens from now, just shows her commitment to that duty and it was great to see in those pictures, even if she looked frail, that she was looking positive and smiling. >> an extraordinary leader across the world wilfred frost, formerly of cnbc, now with our sister network sky news in the united kingdom and live with us from our london newsroom this afternoon. the watch is on. the doctors say she rests comfortably. as you could see from the jet there her family has arrived and the prime minister and others within the government in the united kingdom wishing her nothing but the best, saying their thoughts and prayers are with the royal family. we'll keep watch as carl and team watch the markets through the rest of the morning and the afternoon. carl, back to you. >> shep, thank you for that, and we'll continue to check in with you on any further developments as we monitor the queen's

health shep mentions we are here at code let's kick off today's feed with apple, ceo tim cook covering a lot of ground yesterday talking overnight about his thoughts on user privacy, competition and the vision of steve jobs take a listen. >> he had a view that he really drilled in me that apple should own its primary technologies and that thinking led us to go into the process or business for the mac. first on the iphone -- >> our next guest was there in the room for the panel let's bring in verge editor in chief knilay patel. >> you were in cupertino earlier the day, and flew her for the panel. >> i was there in the morning and saw the new iphones and saw tim and john ive.

>> it did lead to conversations about their current view of privacy, innovation and the like. >> yeah, i think the panel was about steve jobs, about his legacy, the first guest here at code 20 years ago. a lot of questions were what would steve think and a lot of answers were his ideals still permeate the company particularly around privacy where steve famously said ask, ask again, ask a third time. that's in some tension with where apple is now they're not the upstart, not fighting microsoft anymore or any of the other competitors they had and they're building an ads business the most interesting thing cook said yesterday was digital advertising isn't bad on its face, it's bad if you track people without their consent we think we can do it a better way. we have to see if that works but it's a big move. >> that's my question, do you buy that i think kara said similar comments to us yesterday she said they're going to do it with privacy in mind, versus facebook or meta, that starts with tracking.

he called it surveillance even he's not backing away from those comments what's the bar how will we know if apple's doing this in the right way for consumer privacy >> right before cook came on stage evansby said to save snap we're doing low funnel direct targeted advertising, bottom of the funnel, find user intent that's where the money is. if that's where the money is, you need to know what people like, serve them the right ads at the right time. if that's where apple thinks the money is, they are going to have to profile some customers. in some way, and serve them some ads with some targeting. we have yet to see how that will work. >> jon >> we've got a road map to it with apple differential privacy approach where they think they can create an anonmiezed cohort of people so you can target to them without knowing too much about them and without apple retaining that information, and to me i think interestingly, this isn't the first time that

apple would be venturing into this area, you remember iad from back in 2010, more than a decade ago, jobs himself made forays into this area, but back then apple didn't have all of the ingredients to make the full dish, so much of what tim cook's apple is able to do, i think, is put together ingredients that steve jobs himself didn't have, and fulfill some of that vision. >> yeah, i think that's absolutely right and i think fundamentally it was fascinating that both i-ads and itunes ping came up on stage last night. notable failures of the steve jobs era, but cook brought up i-ads and said this is a thing we're already doing. you know, we'll see if they can thread this privacy needle because you can do differential privacy and do all the tracking on the phone, maybe locally, that apple is really good at that but at some point you've got to tell an advertiser whether they sold a product and

that is where things get dicey. >> it was interesting they did talk about that, steve jobs' legacy a lot and one of the most important things that's extremely successful for apple is the idea they should own its own primary technology that was left over from the steve jobs days and that has led them to create their own chips, their own processors where do you put that in the announcement yesterday it was notable only the highest iphone is going to have the newest processor, how does that fit into the strategy, didn't raise the prices, how they want to sell. >> apple is slowly running into the same supply chain problems as everybody else, the new chip, their first -- they're on the bleeding edge node, butteer keeping the older chip on the older node, they just have supply there the other thing, apple talks about owning its primary technologies, they bought intel's modem division, we have not heard a peep about connectivity changing over in these iphones, what's the most

primary connectivity, the modem stack, haven't seemed to crack it yet. >> we'll watch the evolution of apple's strategy. in the meantime, switching gears to twitter how close was disney to buying the company back in '16? bob iger explained why that deal fell through, and what he learned about fake accounts on the platform here's what he said. >> interestingly enough, because i watched -- i read the news these days about it. we did look very carefully at all of the tiktok -- i'm sorry, all of the twitter users i guess they're called users. >> yes. >> yeah. and we at that point estimated, with some twitter's help that a substantial portion, not a majority, were not real. >> how many? >> i don't remember. i don't remember the number. but we discounted the value -- >> 10%, 20%. >> don't remember. >> okay. >> don't remember.

that was one but that was built into our economics. actually, the deal that we had was pretty cheap. >> well done to alex heath for asking those questions. >> very proud of him. >> he steps into the musk realm, though, he says maybe he saw what i saw i wonder what you think about that. >> elon tweeted a story about the bots iger found. i'm guessing iger will show up in the -- haves very interesting. iger said was sometimes you look at something and it's not your core business, you need to walk away musk does not have that filter, he walks in all kinds of businesses that are connected to broadly the future of humanity, and he said twitter was a global consciousness. we'll see the bots issue, i think for disney it was very clearly, iger said there's a lot of negativity here that i don't want to be associated with as disney i don't think musk cares about that. >> he doesn't care about that part of it but it was almost like he --

these comments could be coming from elon musk, iger said major distraction, having to manage circumstances that weren't anything close to anything we've ever faced before. something musk could say, this has turned into a major distraction, and do you think iger gets subpoenaed for these comments >> i'm guessing that musk's lawyers are going to do it here's what i'll note. iger did his due diligence before signing the contract by twitter and walked away. musk seems to be doing it after. >> cart after horse. jon? >> yeah, nilay, this is the problem, right, this is back six years ago. that iger looked at this, and saw that they were a bunch of bots which, by the way, elon musk knew already because he was arguing about how he was going to be the one to solve the bot problem at twitter so is this really helpful at all? i mean, what, elon couldn't have called up bob iger and said yeah, did you see a bunch of bots when you looked in there six years ago? and elon himself from the beginning was saying there's a

bunch of bots yet he still waived due diligence, does that make any sense >> it doesn't to me, you know what alex pointed out to me after the question and we were talking, iger looked at twitter before twit erroled out monetizable active daily users his bot notification was unrelated to the current stakes of this trial where elon is saying the number is false and they're defrauding people. that wasn't relevant at the time they hadn't rolled out that number yet i'm not sure what is going to happen except elon is going to pull in every famous person to pressure twitter to let him out of the steel he can. >> tesla was another good topic yesterday, we heard from the transportation secretary pete buttigieg, you talked about his thoughts on musk and the ev maker at large here's what he said. >> we don't have favorite companies. >> no. >> and so when they do something positive, i mean first of all the way that tesla propelled the ev revolution we're all now

benefiting from, remains the largest ev manufacturer in the u.s. is magnificent. >> and then there was california governor newsom weighing in on his state's role in tesla's growth. >> tesla's success was the regulatory environment of california without the regulations to accelerate and promote the technology elon musk would not be allegedly the richest man in the world. >> he's in texas now. >> he's in texas now but 35,000 employees are in california and they're increasing production by 50% in fremont and they just opened a new battery facility in lamprop and a hundred others that want to be the next tesla and watch your back, tesla. the world you invented is about to compete against you across the spectrum. >> interesting, kara tried to tell buttigieg she thought it was a political mistake to exclude musk from these conversations but buttigieg said even the giga factory design he

thought was incredibly el gabt. >> all of these politicians know they have to play to the tesla base, and play to the domestic car manufacturing base which desperately wants tax incentives to build here. the big turn that's going to happen is next year the tax credit comes back to tesla if you buy tesla you don't get the 7500 tax credit, it's coming back to them and other manufacturers but it's going to push battery manufacturing to the united states over time as the credit phases into batteries. tesla is ahead there they're already starting to do it everyone else is announcing their plans. >> ahead in many, many ways, several factories while the other ones are ramping up. what did you think of newsom's comment, watch your back, bitter that elon musk left california on a morning we have this announcement from -- teaming up with mercedes benz to share costs on an electric van do you think by next year there's more competition

finally, feels like we're always talking about it, never seeing it. >> the joke is every car is vapor ware announce a rendering, but nobody is shipping the cars hopefully by next year we're seeing movement on mass market cars that cost less than $100,000 that people can actually buy if you want to buy an ev, you're pretty much looking at a tesla. >> we got through a lot. pretty productive code i would argue this year. >> we haven't talked about andrew jassy. >> we're getting to that. >> a great code 20 years, they invited me to the first, it changed the course of my career, it's been amazing to be a part of this. >> you're a huge part. nilay, thank you, good to see you. still to come this hour early facebook -- jim breyer, hearing from jassy on his

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watching the broader market, s&p above 4 k again, talk about where you might find opportunity in deck, our julia boorstin joins us this morning with a prominent tech investor whose early bets including faceetsy ad others. >> you invested in so many amazing companies, including meta, now you're running your own firm breyer capital. you have interesting takes on the private market and the public market. let's start public you have big bets in the mega cap tech companies kell us which ones and why. >> it's great to be back here and congratulations to kara on 20 years i'll just run through the theory the theory is buy the best houses in the best neighborhoods where there's key man that has five to ten years left who can really impact the business i start with nvidia.

i think nvidia, after this correction, is a deeply compelling three-year bet, more as well. so all of these are in the context of three years they are so far ahead of everyone else in building semiconductor infrastructure for ai and quantum they are so far ahead of anyone in china or in europe and so the two chip stocks i really like and continue to add to the position are amd and nvidia amd for many of the same reasons, lisa's a superb ceo, and jensen, "a" plus. >> you're microsoft and apple because you believe in those leaders but i have to get your take on meta you were on the board of then facebook, now meta, for many years. what's your take on zuckerberg transitioning this company to be all about the metaverse? >> the core business at meta is

strong although it has head winds as google and others do in the advertising space. i would love to see mark lay out far more specifically what his metaverse strategy is. at the high level i understand where he's going, knowing mark extremely well gaming is a very important part of the metaverse they are building plat forms that allow really interesting gaming applications on oculus and next year will be the big year with apple, sony and others introducing glassing but it's not a chooherent straty yet. that gives me pause. mark will get there. the other thing i would say about facebook that is not appreciated enough, instagram and whatsapp are two of the most important applications worldwide and recently we've seen interaction on whatsapp in india with shopping and partnerships whatsapp and instagram and where

they're going are two of the truly worldwide horizontal applications that make a big difference. >> i have to ask about tiktok, you were an investor in tiktok and that is the company that everyone has been talking about here at this conference, on stage and off as a mega threat, some people saying it's a threat to society, others saying it's just a threat to the social platforms. what do you think? >> it certainly is a threat. now, there are a number of different elements but what they did is poured very significant money into ai so that the user experience is trained in a way that content, that really does become compelling for the user, keeps coming up again and again. and that user keeps training the algorithms so they've taken a different approach than what snap and facebook and others, youtube, have done, and they've also invested really smartly in, again, these underlying ai

technologies a tremendous threat because advertisers love them. there are lots of risks in terms of when sippus and others examine where is that data, where does it go but the company is knocking it out of the park. >> because it's so addictive you log on and you lose an hour. >> absolutely. >> so bite dance is a chinese company, you've been investing in chinese companies a long time how are you feeling with the chinese government adding stimulus but lockdowns starting, would you be a buyer of chinese tech >> i'm not buying any chinese stocks right now because i'm waiting to see how central congress -- shape out. if there are moderates who, again, take a lead in the economic leadership within china, i am, again, very optimistic

we need china, particularly from a sustainability partner standpoint so i really do hope there are ways where we can find ways to cooperate. but right now it's very, very challenging. >> you don't think there's been a change in the last few years with the lockdowns throughout covid and the crackdown in terms of regulation, you think that if there's moderates in the communist party, that it will kind of resume as was? you don't think the risk has increased? >> the risk has increased dramatically i misspoke then. the last two years it's been almost impossible to invest in technology much of our investment in china has been around health, and health sciences. they have a tremendous shortage of nurses, doctors, aging population and so they're not even big tech types of things. and in the u.s. i've double, tripled down on quantum and ai technologies where every week i'm meeting with nobel laureates who are telling me this nobel

laureate isn't down the research path on this physics quantum effort but we are going to see here in the u.s., why i like the mega caps, they are so well positioned around ai and quantum. if you take alphabet and sundar, what he said a couple nights ago, four years ago he created an ai first company, ruth perrat is a spectacular cfo we have entrepreneurs who, julia, you've met with, worked with over the years, thomas toll and others, brilliant, brilliant people, who are looking at the impact of quantum technologies and making our government and our country safer. it's a really exciting time for many entrepreneurs if they're not looking at the stock market every day. >> i was going to say it doesn't sound like you're thrown by short-term dynamics, whether it's reels monetization at

meta -- how are you thinking about short-term challenges? >> the short-term challenges are deep, in many cases fundamental, takes six to nine months, if you will to sort through and then we'll see where we are but rarely is there a time when i'm investing where i've seen nvidia or some of these other companies, microsoft, that are so well managed, international business has slowed because of the dollar there's risk in china. there's continued macro economic risk in europe and yet the underlying lead that these companies are exerting in the most important strategic areas of the business give me optimism that if it's a three-year perspective, people make a lot of money. if it's a one-year perspective, flip a coin. >> right, but valuations, an aggregate right here, you think are still rich, reasonable, overdone on the downside >> i think they're not -- they're closer to rich than they

are to being on the downside but again, i just don't know if you take apple, a company i've loved forever, and you look at tim cook and the legacy he continues on with steve and they were, of course, here. i don't think what's factored into apple at this point is the car. and everything i'm hearing about the car is spectacular what that means, when they deliver, don't have the specifics. but what i do know suggests that is that next amazing breakout product potentially for apple. and meanwhile, their phones, ipads, macpros, on and on, the new watch. they're building a really good business they need another breakout product over the next couple years. i think it's the car i'm hearing they have an "a" plus team on the car, but i wish i could tell you more about timing. >> you're teasing us with that. >> yeah, jim, back to startups

and valuations for a moment, good too see you, by the way how many of your portfolio companies are either raising now, raising capital, or you expect will need to in the next year and how many of those are going to face, you think, a potentially lower valuation, what are you going to tell them? >> yeah, i think, jon, great seeing you, the reality is the markets are the markets, companies that went out and raised money call it before january or february of this year are marked up too high and so it's a constant education process. the best companies will just say we're going to go out and raise money at a lower price and there's nothing wrong with that, i think, i think there has to be reality. a lot of companies have enough cash to get through another nine or twelve months but i don't think, in many cases, they'll be able to raise money at higher prices in nine to twelve months it's hard to say but i always like telling the

entrepreneurs, look, i'm across the board cutting the market cap. cap. i'm just

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. i'm pretty certain cable and satellite is marching at a constant direction towards a precipice and it's going to be pushed off a lot of people subscribe to cable and satellite television today because of certain programming and also because of habit and complacency. >> former disney chief bob iger at code last night talking about in his words the death of linear television but he also discussed which streaming services he thinks will lead the way in the

future. >> i don't think all streamers are created equal. i do not believe all streams that are in it today will survive. there will be have and have notes. >> now that you're not working, can you name some names. >> you know, i can tell you i believe that -- well, netflix is going to continue to thrive. they could have some issues now, but -- >> souring, but seems -- >> clearly i'm a big believer in disney they've got the ip, they've already proven they can be successful in that business. >> pretty fascinating. he mentioned netflix, disney, apple and amazon the others, julia, he said some of them have tough hands you need a lot of capital. >> you need a lot of capital and maybe we're going to see more consolidation. we've seen discovery and waern brothers it was interesting hearing him reflect on the fact that for so many years they were selling content tonette flix

selling nuclear weapons technology to a country that should not have had it they fueled the rise of this giant and there's a situation where netflix and disney are going head to head you have to think back and wonder what would have happened if they had done a disney plus direct to consumer earlier. >> bigger head start content spend has just ballooned. so enormous. you talk to people in l.a. selling the shows, they're sitting a little bit longer, a little bit harder to sell. what does that mean for next year, are we going to see these double digit billion dollar content spend figures or will next year be the year it comes down >> the commitments are made long in advance, and in terms of the consumer they're going to have plenty of shows long in advance but we are hearing more about cuts reports of cuts coming at netflix. >> but not content >> well, no, but if you're doing overall cuts, swag, but you have to wonder when is that going to trickle down or are they more disciplined in the types of content. one thing i hear from a lot of

people is that netflix is no longer committed to the binge model. drip feeding their fans episodes because people just binge and cancel that's something they're reckoning with. >> julia, i'm starting to hear about content cuts, maybe it's malscale, having to do with animation, an may. isn't waern discovery kind of moth balling older episodes. hbo as well. does that suggest that from a discovery, and i mean content discovery, user interface point of view, and also just what these providers are willing to continue paying for, that there's some belt the tightening going on that might affect the overall content market >> absolutely belt tightening going on there's such a bubble right now and for the past year, years or so of content investment, so, yes, i think warner discovery is the one to watch we know that they've already done some cuts, they've pulled some content off that platform

and david zazlov has to make billions of dollars of cuts to hit the targets. you have to wonder when that's going to trickle down to the content spending itself. there's a lot of scrutiny about which content delivers subscriber growth and retains subscribers, they're worried about turn especially as we go into the fall. one thing we've talked about including bob iger is ad-supported services. people will tolerate commercials if they don't have to spend as much. >> we mentioned andy jassy arguing a prime subscription means less churn if you need it for other things, other than watching content. speaking of content at amazon, nfl season opener tonight on both nbc and peacock, julia caught up with lead commissioner roger good dell at sun valley earlier in the summer outlining his vision for what's next in the league take a listen. >> i clearly believe we'll be moving to a streaming service, i think that's best for the consumers at this stage. but we have so much interest right now, and there's so much

innovation around that, and how we're going to be able to change the way people watch football. i think we'll probably have some decision by the fall. >> fascinating as we await b bills/rams. >> the ratings for those games on amazon. i've heard amazon has been telling advertisers they expect ratings to be down as much as by half from where they were on fox. there's this question of whether or not they start slow and then gradually people get used to watching football games on amazon prime but this -- these ratings, these particular games are going to be closely scrutinized. everyone's figuring out where football, where these premium sports should go in the future and of course we're watching to see nfl sunday ticket, who's going to get that deal, amazon's in the running but so is google, and so is apple and espn that one we're expecting the next couple months, getting close. >> we can't wait be sure not to miss the kickoff of the nfl season tonight, tune in, peacock, and nbc, coverage

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there's been a lot of discussion at code around companies cutting forecast costs in the slow economy. amazon ceo andy jassy addressed their own pandemic over -- >> we weren't sure what was going to happen in '21, let alone in '22 we made the decision, which i think was a good decision at the

time, that we would err on the side of building more. we didn't want to constrain consumers because we knew we wanted to serve what they -- you know, the straits people were in at that time, and we didn't want to constrain sellers so we knew that if we guessed wrong high, if we were higher than we needed we would eventually grow into that footprint. >> our next guest thinks that some investors are feet and founders,n con for a rough winter,!]■z■ joinin former google executive david freeburn. >> great to be here. >> i'm not sure if you just heard jim breyer he said valuations are on the rich every side and he's basically cutting every company he's had in his portfolio that's private by 20%, paper valuation. where are you in terms of that >> there's a little bit of a trend with venture capitalists having their head in the sand.

as soon as you open up the box the cat's going to be there or not. no one wants to know what their companies or their portfolios is actually worth that's, i think, limiting why a lot of investors don't want to go price b, c, d rounds. as soon as you do that and say, hey, your company is worth 70% less than the last round you know that's going to affect your own portfolio and then you've got to take the -- in my 20 years in silicon valley, i have never seen the entire venture capital industry take august off. the amount of out of office, i'm in the south of france, aspen, no one's been around for about a month and no one wants to face the music on this. >> the question is, how long does this last when do they get back in what are the valuations going to look like six months, a year from now >> i think one way to think about the proxy on this, so many companies, nearly every high flying company raised money last year and they typically raise let's say two to three years of capital. once you're within a year of running out of capital you really have to say okay i'm going to take the hit now. you'll start to see the

investors that are in these companies saying, okay, you know now it's time, i'm willing to take the right down, but let's see what happens with the market, give it another quarter. the fed is going to do this. this is going to happen in europe, ukraine this, everyone's got a rationalization for delay. once you're within the one-year time frame, take the hit given a lot of folks raised last summer, that was the big boom quarter you'll see a lot of folks coming back to market q1, q4, and really starting to take those hits. >> that's interesting. so it picks up in '23, base case >> distribution, so i think you'll probably see most of the activity start to happen but folks are going to push it a bit. it's not like last year when folks had three years of runway are out raising huge rounds because the market was so nuts we're in a different climate now. a lot of runway is getting extended folks are doing cuts and so on could get pushed out. >> david, given that the u.s. economy is two-thirds consumer, how important is holiday going

to be, holiday spending and, you know, the impact trickles down into enterprise, and cloud software as well, overall demand, how important is that going to be in what valuations are, and what the overall economic mood is, when these companies are coming back to the trough >> so a lot of businesses in the d to c space, the direct to consumer space over the past year have had their own set of nightmares and hs the result of third party tracking with apple, facebook and so on because of that, the cost of acquisition has can you believed, tripled. it's fallen apart. you've seen this in the public markets with public companies, seeing it heavily in the private markets and there's actually even more concerning riff under way right now, which is how are the economics going to play out in the consumer businesses over this coming winter season, not just is there going to be

activity, let's say activity dips by 30%. that is a very different situation than if your unit economic costs or cost to acquire a customer doubles or triples and the business is in a lot more trouble we are already seeing a lot of washout happen but certainly consumer activity is scary because we're seeing consumer credit rise, home prices and inventories rise, and so there's real concern right now on what is the financial condition of the average american consumer and being able to spend in q4, and it's a more broader economic thing than just how it's going to affect tech. >> so you're not fooled by talks of excess savings, or untapped tloc equity, yooung there's that >> if you look at new credit filings by the st. louis fed you can see these numbers have climbed significantly over the last few months. and a lot of excess savings is getting burns up, and this is doubly worse with inflation, i'm spending more on food, spending more on gas, i'm taking a lot of credit and my savings have declined by 20, 30%.

there's a real crunch happening. a lot of the surplus categories, crypto was a great surplus category, everyone got excited and bought a bunch of crypto, those are dead down 99% it's going to work its way down. the essentials, food and energy are left to get hit in the u.s but you'll see these kind of surplus you'll see these surplus categories getting eaten away first. >> at the same time, there's so much dry powder that needs to be put to work. thanks for your insights. still to come, much more on the release of the new iphone 14 plus, are the watch and airpods the next rogue drivers what does this signal aboutht e consumer don't go away. we'll have all that coming root up

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let's get a gut check on chips. 50% more on the upside they expect to deliver strong frouct as it continues to execute its product roadmap and expand its ip portfolio. also initiating nvidia and intel at hold. and citi on globalfoundries saying they expect a positive update at their conference today, which could drive the stock higher you can read more about those calls on cnbc.com/pro. we're back in a moment how do we show strength and stability? (eagle call) a mountain?

a tree weathering a storm? (thunder) lions? nope. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people.

turning back to apple, we've got a lot of announcements yesterday. no major increases for the iphone in the u.s. we did get some updates for both the apple watch and for airpods.

steve kovach is with us. he has more. hey, steve. >> yeah, more than half the show at apple yesterday suspect on the apple watch and airpods. that's because even though the ipod account for most of it, the hardware and accessories is where the growth is happening. on the watch side, not a lot of new there, at least for the regular series 8 model announced yesterday. the only significant new feature is a temperature sensor for monitoring ovulation cycles. it won't do much else. you can't take a temperature to see if you have a fever, for example. and it's the same device it has been for the last couple of years. the watch has a lot of room to go tim cook said last year three out of every four watch buyers are buying the watch for the first time remember, there are over 1 billion iphoners out there, so

th there's a lot of room to go. there's a kid' watch, and the cheaper model has some of the base-level features most people want there's that $800 apple ultra-watch, which is a new category, going after fitness trackers like garmin and more improvements on the airpods pro. it's the first update since it debuted three years ago, better battery life, noise canceling, and the like chl and there's more room to grow there as well. apple saying the airpods are the most popular they're emblematic of cook's apple. sell for and then promote more services to generate growth. no real surprise, but that's the recipe cook has been using. >> the biggest surprise was prices department go up in the u.s. on the phone itself, but it

seems like we should be thinking of this more as a basket strategy maybe it makes it more likely that the customer attaches a watch or airpods or maybe multiple if they're buying gifts. >> exactly it's all about the lock-in i was speaking to the cfo about that i asked him about price increases. he said, look, it's going to be okay with the price in the u.s. but he did hint we could see price increases across other regions like the uk and japan where the dollar is a little stronger in terms of currency there and that's exactly what happened yesterday. >> steve kovach, thank you. >> carl, that's a wrap it's been a busy few days. i was on the east coast. you came over on the west coast. conference season is only getting started. i mean, we're going to be busy.

>> it's true we've been saying it for a while. fascinating look, though, at the ways in which companies are looking at costs and regulation and innovation that's been the hallmark of code. >> it felt like a but of caution. >> we've been pleased to be here let's get to the judge and the half. carl, thanks very much welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner this time the markets and the fed, are the two on the same page again if so, what does it mean to stocks and your money? we debate that we have brand-new buys from our own josh brown joining me for the hour today, the aforementioned josh brown, jason snipe, heaarrington is wi me on site and steve liesman we're going to get to the markets. i do want to send it over to shepard smith for th