the month. >> okay. farmer jim >> glad to see weiss covered that industrial short. this is creme de la creme. >> and uber talked about a breakdown in early august. >> you're not the only one who thinking that. "the exchange" begins right now. here's what's ahead. forget about september's bad history. what are you buying in this ground why choose we'll hear from who is who says you can get both shares surging sinceual. you'll real -- self-driving, labor issues, tons to talk about. good news, inflailing may by

slowing. all of that is ahead but another gift, dom chu. >> you're a nice guy, brian. it is a gift every time i get to fill in for you onthe early shows. >> is it [ laughter ] >> dow jones industrial average is up about i about 211 points, just near the highs of the session. the s&p 500 is above 4100. nearly 1% gains there. if you look at where else there's activity now, it's beaten up in that energy patch it's not a lot, but it's green, 1% to the up side there. energy stocks, 1.7%. xle, devan infeenergy, so watch

energy it's been beaten up, but a bit of a bounce today. >> megacap technologies, especially the biggest one out there, that's apple, $5.59 to the up side. up 3.5%, this is session highs for the stock. the reason why it's important. at this level right here, we are now above the 50-day average price, and the 2r 00-day average price on a rolling basis some people are saying maybe that's bullish brian, watch apple, it could be an indicator. >> apple and oil, dom which you, thank you very much. h stocks rallying, and the fed

last quarter a little less hawkish. the decline in inflation is not enough for the fed for deviate from the path. they're sticking to stocks with value and growth, but only at a reasonable place joining us is bill stone, from the glenview trust company, growth at a reasonable price garp, it sounds like an easy concept, but is it easy to find stocks >> i any they moment it is fairly easy. you can't then you've got maybe some really, really cyclical ones i think because of the sell-off since the beginning of the year, you're able to scour think and find some thing, yet you're not paying some

outrageous price for when i hear about a stock or company that has never in its history as a public company traded at that low of a valuation, that radar goes off that's what's happened to meta platforms, aka facebook. it's just gotten destroyed this year, but you like it? >> i do. i think of it as a brand that goes through a tough time, back in the days of buying mcdonald's when this was mad cows and nobody was going to go to mcdonald's account i would start to worry if you had users falling, but they're well known, right? tiktok is eating some of their lunch in terms of eye 2k7 balls spending more time there also some of the privacy changes, but in the long run, it is a social network company, but

really it's just an advertising company. if it had the eyeballs, i truly believe the earnings will follow like i said, the lowest valuation, again, you're probably going to have to suffer for a while. i have no idea when the turn comes, but i think you will get rewarded >> we'll see don't drink and go on virtual reality, i guess, but we're going to combine the two here, because it's safe. anheuser busch, bud, you kind of view this as a safe investment >> i do. they're an amazing brand budweiser, you've got stella arto i. corona outside the u.s you may say, then, why is the stock so cheap input costs are expensive right

now for beer makers in general had the most leverage to really deal with that, but it's still crimping the profits at the moment phenomenal franchises around the globe, so if you think eventually some relief from that, and i think you will i think earnings will in fact rebound. we just do not see alcohol consumption going down you may trade down from butt to something else, but you typically keep drinking. maybe some of us drink more if it's a bad enough market. >> bill, last one is a company 12 times earnings, pays a nice dividend is, i guess you could say is a philosophy leader, yet also tends to not get a lot of

love, and that is wells fargo. this is a company that's had will 100 scandals and problems, it seems like, in the last ten years. >> yeah. >> you're willing to take the flyer on the fargo >> it's a hard company to love, but you're right new management, so you've got sharp there as ceo i think they're focussing on what they need to, cutting costs. the fed has this temperature restrained, at least not most. it's a franchise with one of the largest deposit bases in the country. also, the way they're set up, they're very interest rate sensitive.

bill stone, a pleasure to have you on. thank you very much. >> thank you. the good news on inflation is the price of a goods lien has come down recently, but you probably care more about your house than your car. if you're in the market for a house, bad news, mortgages are at 6%, even higher, depending on your credit. this home affordability goes down, buyers are baulking, let's team more about andy whalen, i got your latest release last week i kind of had to do a double take on some of the numbers. they're not good >> yeah. i mean, whether you're looking at prices or volumes, both have been pulling back. if you look at folks locking in rates to buy a home, down 30% from last year lowest august since 2017, and you're starting to say prices come off the peak levels as well. >> i think it bearing repeating

for the folks in the back. the reality is about 90% of all american mortgages are, what, below 5%, 80% are below 4% if you're thinking about moving and you're looking at a 6% mortgage, you're sitting on a 4% mortgage and the house is more expensive, i can see buy buyers are baulking. >> and seller are baulking no the same reason. but they're trying to understand whap a reality what they maid? they're looking at their own rates and the prices they could have gotten, especially in the august data, you're starting this season with the sellers also baulking. growth roughly at a tenth the rate over the last three months. you're seeing buyers priced out, that means lower transaction

volumes. >> that sounds look a bad combination, andy. where does the data suggest this might be heading >> if you look at the latest data, we're looking at that real time coming out of markets, one, you're seeing refinances, as we expect to see trend downward that purchase lock volume is trending downward as well. we also just got our monthly snapshot of that collateral anal analytics down from where it was, so each set of numbers that's been coming out, prices have been edging lower if we see mortgages cap out here, the fed may keep raising rates, but the mortgage market lags, and maybe a lot of the bond market is priced in let's say this is the peak does the market then, you think,

fix itself or -- it has to come down. >> the way it fixes itself is one of the three ways, right it waits for incoming to grow, to normalize and bring us back into balance we would need 40% income growth with the prices where terr to get us back to affordable. >> 40% income growth >> or interest rates coming down closer to the 3 to 4% range or prices coming back >> about you it's just simply not built for a 6% rate environment. that's what you're seeing take place. based on where incomes are right now. >> i don't know how old you are, andy you look young >> very young. >> i'm old enough to remember when 6% was old. i'm not 180 years old. we're at 6%, good news, is what

i remember how did we get into this >> we're having that conversation more and more you're absolutely right. if you just look at interest rates, 6% is low historically. what also is true is home priceless normalize themselves based on interest rates. the last five years, coming down 3% means your buying power goum up, and you would think they would save that, but they bid up home prices. then we simply can't get back to that. i want to end on not a doom-and-gloom there's a lot of all cash buyers >> and i think there's some who

are just waiting for that. andy walden, i appreciate it >> appreciate it. on deck, is it too early to talk about black friday and holiday shopping of course not. especially if inflation threatens to eat into. plus uber shares on track for the longest monthly winning streak in more than a year what is driving that turnaround. we'll speak exclusively with the uber ceo we're back after this.

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let's talk about christmas even with gasoline prices coming down a bit, overall inflation is likely to hit retail spending. even santa claude is not human to -- immune to higher prices. consumers hunt for the early deals. join us me is steve savedo it's good to have you back on. what does that mean?

it means we have to get or holiday shopping down in october? >> no, i don't know that you have to do it in october there will be plenty of product out there, but it will be an early holiday season mastercard forecast is for a 7% growth inflation is tracking into that kind of level, but it says that the consumer is relatively healthy. look at the month of all, for example, so overall we talk about a consumer being hit by inflation, low-end consumer starting to slow, but they're shopping differently that is to me what is most important. e-commerce was the story during pandemic, and now people are getting back into stores eh commerce is still 50%, 75% big are than pre-pandemic, but people are out there shopping. >> when people have tried to bet

against the american consumer, as you know, the history is littered with analyst who is have lost their shirt on that. americans love to shot, and they love to show up in stores, because it's something to do it's a thing, right? >> absolutely. >> having been to a mall recently, it was packed. >> yeah. i think the real story is the consumer wants to shop anywhere, anytime they want to shop. during the pandemic, they were constrained, so they had to shop online i think that what's happening is you're having a lot of winners and losers we've gone to extremes i don't think we've talked that much about it. during the pandemic you have the supply chain constraints, there was very low inventory the retailers decided they were going to buy a lot more, because

they didn't know when the supply chain would open up. they had much too much ordered of the things that people were buying during the pandemic so you saw the targets and walmarts talking about much too much inventory, having to mark it down. now there's a mode in a lot of competent product being cleared. the holiday season will still be about some of that product cleared, the new product, the new fashion. they don't want loungewear they want the sexy fashion to go out, but the clearance product will depress the sales to some dry. i think we have too much, now we're going to the other extreme. we had all the markdowns some of them will have to, because they don't have the cash, because they're still sitting too much on the. >> which would, by the way, not

to get at weird and wonky, but if your balance sheet is not strong as a retailer, that's a death spiral potentially correct me if i'm wrong, but you can't get insurance on your inventory or it's more expensive to get the insurance which is a negative cost spiral. >> absolutely. it's an issue you've got to get the cash to buy the inventory. you won't be ordering as much any of torrie. i think most of the strong retailers will be perfectly fine, but they will cut back you don't want to cut back on the product though everybody wants. so there is a little bit of people -- retailers are being a bit careful coming into new orders, because you do have a weakening consumer, even the 7% forecast, which is very healthy

is low irthan the 11% growth we saw in's this is a time when people are being very careful about their spending, and there's a bifurcation. the luxury side of the market is doing pretty well now what's happening, however, is you go for the other extreme where all the dtc that just grew based on the internet, because the internet is not growing as fast, they're opening a lot of new stores this would surprise everybody, more net new stores minus stores closing than we've had in the last 15 years. there's a lot of stores opening. >> it's good, good for the commercial real estate business probably as well today was recycling day on our street if i have to cut another box down -- i love delivery, but

hole smokes, the boxes steve, i appreciate it tang care. coming up, is europe's energy crisis coming to here in america, at least in part? plus new tech always tends to get the headlines, right but -- we'll talk about one of the legacy players, like oracle, with frank holland cy-right now. allow monitoring of productivity at remote job sites, with next-generation bandwidth. enable ai cameras that spot factory issues in real time, using next-generation speed. and deliver ultra-capacity 5g coverage that's years ahead of the competition. t-mobile for business has 5g that's ready right now. you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home.

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it's been kind of a gross year for car vana investors. mining jumping after goldman sachs initiates coverage speaking of metals, take a look at silver, both a nice pop higher the slv having the best day since all way back in february bristol-myers jumping after approval of the oral treatment of plaque is a rise.

and let's get to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. jeff bezos' blue origin has suffered the first rocket failure. no one was on board thankfully about a mind after the liftoff, the capsule separate theed and landed in the -- meantime u.n. is discussion with ukraine and russia for a safe zone both nations accuse each other of shelling at or near the nuclear facility. in edinburgh, members of the public are paying their last railroadses.

outside of buckingham palace, people are already staking out spots for the funeral profession tonight, how britain is adjusting, and what make change under the rule of king charles iii. brian, back to you. up next, call it -- why she's noor bearish on meta and bullish on apple more than others and the mystery chart. what could it be we're going to find out, coming up ♪ ♪

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maybe we call this -- the firm out with a new note breaking down key searchment shifts while many investors are in love with companies like meta and disney, edam's laura martin says, not so fast. laura, nice to see you in the daylight hours good to have you.

>> nice to be here. >> you're more negative on meta -- i have to call them facebook, i'm sorry, but institutions, maybe because the stock has been crushed, seem to love it. what are these getting wrong about meta >> i think what we're worried about the street might be missing, it's not only investing in the metaverse, which is a clear pivot from its historical business, but at the same time reacting to tiktok, by lowers more advertisation, replacin news feed with reels, and sighs, look, we're going to take a 30% cost in monetization, because we have to compete with tiktok. it makes you worry that things are worse here otherwise, you know, meta

wouldn't be investing in the metaver, which is a pivot away from core business and trying to get back customers from tiktok. >> this is probably extreme, but i'm on tv, so that's what we do. is this like facebook's new coke moment >> no, because i don't know that its core business is actually stable when new coke went back to the original formula, they had a core business that worked. by the way, you saw the ftc is asks facebook to preapprove any bids it makes on acquisition, which is untenable a company can't wait for the government to decide whether it's allowed to business that's a huge disadvantage >> also, first off, the fact that the government thinking they can tell private industry what to do, i guess they do, but if you want to buy this company, that commissioner will leak that news pretty much, you know -- don't tell anybody, by facebook

wants to buy so-and-so, right? what about apple what are they getting wrong? >> the sentiment that is turn to silently negative. i think it's sort of on the unimpressive iphone 4 lineup i think what people are missing there, i think advertising too double their service revenue advertising in general has higher margins than services, and service at apple have about double their hardware margins. you can't have iphones not do ago well, and the eps growth can far outstrip a great iphone year >> this is a really critical point. i want our viewers to do something i did, something he recently did i saw what i was paying apple

every month. and they have this new apple one which lowers -- i'll bet you they're throwing apple outside of the phone $50 to $60 a month and don't even realize it, with news, itunes, match, whatever. >> i agree they spent 40 minutes out of their 90-minute new product commercial last week doing watching and they're introducing a high-end watch, which they didn't even give us the price for, but this watch can replace your dive computer, and go from 130 degrees policies to negative 30 celsius you know that price of the watch will be enormous, but now they have a three-product strategy, a catch for your kids, that allowing parents to track exactly where their kids are, and then the very high-end super

watch, which is good going to really pull the average rpus up, and it works better with an infone >> you buy one, you kneed other, and then apple tv, and by the way, the video game subscription there's your $50 a month laura, always good to do you thank you. another metaverse name, roblox, investors love the announcement parents probably don't now your kid can play rho box and learn about, you know, my fun plays roblox he's walking around in this and will seal a billboard for coca-cola? >> pretty much, yeah roblox will be the first to really do it

shares, like you said, spiked after the company unveiled its plans to allow advertising in its game starting next year. this advertising initiative opens a new avenue of revenue for them, something investors have been waiting for them for most of the year behind the run-up of the stock, though still down 55% from the year, and way off the highs as well get the users, especially the young ones, the savvy ones, get them engaged, and let the brand comes in and pay to play there are about 50 million people every day, and already we've seen fans like spotify,al build their own worlds now they'll be able to pay to play, that transport players to the experiences. also there's more traditional

advertising like digit at billboards it's worth noting that roblox is ahead, but it's way too muchy to tell how much it will move the n needle meta has the foundation that roblox is missing, bud even the ceo was optimistic on "squawk box" this morning, saling current businesses selling digital goods will be a multibillion business. >> get them earl, candy cigarettes, you got to get them going -- is anybody pushing back on this? like the ftc, said, yo, these kids are only 8 years old. >> you can like on instagram, too. >> i told cnbc i was 51.

>> did they believe you? >> no. >> but the real deal is they're putting gates on here. so if you're 18 -- so they can create these virtual world for age-restricted limits, but if you lie, it doesn't matter you say your kids play roblox, so they will see experiences hanging out with their friends, a portal shows up and says come to mcdonald's world instead of playing with your friends, or just today chipotle is letting you build a burrito. >> metaverse midland, you can frack -- and then get yelled at congress steve, thank you not everybody is buying in, cowen initiating a sell, saying

that competition will be intense. the analyst joining the next show, in about 30 minutes. and dee bosa is up next. and oracle letting hundreds of employees go last month a report after the bell today. frank holland is next.

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that could play out in various ways remember, to spend with the lingest returns. also, a company has guided for a loss due to spending russia operations as well with so many companies bringing workers back to the office, layoffs as well as changing suppliers or regions they're sourcing from, demand is expected to grow, but the 30% guide for fiscal '23 represents a major acceleration

it also will be closely watched. may loaves in august reportedly came from the cerner business. >> and we'll see you tonight, "closing bell" overtime, maybe some "fast money" action we'll find out. >> thanks. uber with a monster run, but still down 20% or so this year we have an exclusive interview, next wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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let's talk uber. shares up nearly 60% just since july 1st, as fox gets back to travel and leisure also, their rates have really gone up. reported $382 million in free cash flow for the first time ever last month, but still a lot of headwinds deeb ra bosa is along with uber's ceo tang it away, dee. >> dara, i'm thrilled you could join us. >> thank you for having me

>> you sent a memo about a seismic market shift what can be take about -- you were just on stage saying you haven't felt the recessionary impacts so far. >> i think it's important to know, even before i sent the memo, we have a real focus of efficiency, getting to free cash flow profitability, so the company was already tuned in the right way. weren't much stricter about head counseled growth, and the business was really executing well, but what i saw, even though we were executing well, the market was changing, changing so fast, and good was no longer good enough. you had to do great in terms of both top-line growth and bottom-line growth for us, uber, it's an incredible rally culture.

i needed the company united, focused on driflg profitability as well. we did just that what you're seeing in the last quarter, we talked about 7% of grouse bookings showing up in -- we delivered 12%, so while our target was 7, we delivered 12% you're swimming upstream, you just have to go harder. >> and on "techcheck," we talk a lot about demand, and you are seeing demand continue, the momentum continuing. what about the inflation front the prices have become expensive. do you anticipate them ever getting to the level they were, how customers may knew uber at the beginning. >> you're absolutely right,

demand could be getting weaker, but we're seeing a secular shift from demand for retail, target, walmart, some of the other retailers, talk about some weakness, a shift to demand for service. we're back in perm, the u.s. open was record in terms of going there, so more and more people are going out, spending on services, and that's been a real tailwind. for us, in terms of inflation, i think it's everywhere. so it's the price of a car, price of gas thank god is getting better, your groceries, et cetera. we're just a part of that basket in terms of spend. if anything, 72% of drivers in the u.s. are saying one of the considerations of they're signing up to drive on uber was inflation. life is getting more expensive

so on the supply side, we may be actually benefiting. >> i want to dig into the financials a bit as you said, you always put it -- we jude to talk about adjusted ebitda. now we're talking about positivs flow last quarter. we looked through the results. stock-based compensation was greater than free cash flow. $470 million versus free cash flow of 382 million. critics of this metric, they argue that if you're not offsetting that stock-based compensation with share repurchases, you're destroying wealth how would you respond to that? >> i think the first order for us is to have free cash flow that is higher than -- >> can you get there >> absolutely. 100% we're going to get there. >> as a percentage, you think that nominally and as a percentage of free cash flow, you think that stock-based

compensation will decease? >> absolutely. we set a target of $5 billion on an annual basis for ebita in 2024 free cash flow trails ebita by a billion. it's a billion per quarter that math alone gets you -- will get us to be well above stock-based compensation -- stock-based comp how we allocate that free cash flow, how we use it, is yet to be determined. but i think stock buybacks will be a very attractive place for us to put our caps. >> many more sharing outstanding. are you thinking about buybacks now? would you be able to say when you guys might be in a position to do so >> we're thighingnking about buybacks we're trying to get to investment grade credit ratings.

having access to cash flow liquidity is superimportant. once we get to that investment grade, we're going to look to allocate our free cash flow and buybacks are going to be on the docket. >> how is it going with recruiting and retention i was looking at the 2021 10k. your stock has rebounded still remains well lower of those levels how is sort of -- how are you talking to workforce when they're looking at sort of rsus at a much higher level >> one of the goals is to align employee incentives with share holding incentives we want to earn our way there. i'm a big shareholder and i'm an employee at the same time. and what we're seeing in terms of retention rates, employee retention is looking very

positive uber is -- in there environment, we're winning. driving top-line growth. it's up 33%. profitability growing. free cash flow for the first time we'll get to grab profitability. so the story in the setting for a talented engineer to be able to innovate and know it's going to be a great platform to build on and the impact that we have on the world, it's all adding up to a pretty attractive place to work and it's showing in the retention rates. >> you passed a milestone yourself, five years since you took the reins how you judge your success so far. >> incomplete. i got more to do i feel great about the business in terms of the seat that i'm sitting on i feel really terrific in terms of the cultural change over of this company this company as always been a leader they've been incredible innovative but i think that the impact that we can have on the world in terms of drivers loving our platform, in terms of our

working with regulators, electrifying transportation, i've got more to do there -- >> and you'll be here for the next five years. >> the trend is our friend, yes, absolutely if my board will have me. >> the previous ceo is raising money for microsoft. he's expanding cloud kitchens. you have talked to him, right? do you envision yourselves working with what he's trying to create what's the synergy there >> we want to work with every restaurant provider, any retailer, cloud kitchens looks to be an innovative idea we have a relationship with cloud kitchens like -- >> see the relationship deepening? >> i think we want to deepen our relationship with every single retailer out there and cloud kitchens looks like a pretty innovative one. >> thank you brian, i'll send it back to you. >> a lot covered there the uber ceo, dara khosrowshahi. we're going to big into the

moves in energy today. why oil is back up near oil and natural gas in europe is down. natural gas in europe is down. important updates coming up. we lost about everything trying to pay for prescriptions. dutch nat gas down 6.66% that's ominous eep up. so my husband just stopped taking his medicine. and then he had a stroke. i can't get back what i lost, but thanks to aarp, a new law will protect seniors with a cap on their prescription costs. that could have changed everything for us. i'm just grateful that no one will have to face the terrible choices that we did

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time now for an important update on energy prices both here and in europe first, let's focus on europe where there is some good news. the price of spot natural gas continues to drop. it's at the lowest level in a couple of months yes, it's still massively elevated from a year ago, but overall down more than $150 per contract from its peak just two months ago two reasons, number one, storage levels are ahead of schedule that's thankfully reducing

expectations optimistic news on how ukrainian forces are crushing parts of the russian offensive and have them on the run and retreat in some areas. perhaps the walls are finally closing in on putin. the other story on oil which is going in the other direction and rising again the move higher is likely because if the war does come to an end soon, we could see more renewed economic activity in europe it's the same time that american oil production appears to have leveled off. and then of course there's the not so small matter of having to refill what could be nearly 200 million barrels back into our strategic petroleum reserve. europe is still likely to impose a price cap on oil to which putin has warned he will retaliate. the sanctions designed to knock russia off the market is scheduled to kick in on december

5th. circle that day on your calendar all in all, positive news out of ukraine. let's hope the madman in moscow is long gone by those december 5th sanctions. there's your oil price chart we're going to leave you with a market that's up we're in the green see you tomorrow po"power lunch" starts right now ♪ welcome to "power lunch. i'm seema mody here's what's ahead. cathie wood says deflation is in the pipeline it's a longer term threat to the economy than inflation plus the utility sector hitting a new 52-week high today, but the headwinds facing the industry are growing, including people falling behind on their bills. we'll look at the stocks that can still provid