>> we have 20 seconds left of the show i wanted to ask about prices but we'll get you back on. you can get home, but how much are you paying to get home would be the question. $800 for coach, chicago to newark phil, thank you very much. >> all right, we'll get phil back on because the money matters. that does it for us. we'll see you tomorrow [ applause ] starts right now >> thank you very much along with contessa brewer, i'm tyler mathisen here's what's ahead on "power lunch. recession warning. will the fed's aggressive strategy to raise interest rates cause the economy to crack that's what starwood capital's chairman and ceo, barry sternlic, told cnbc this morning, and according to him, it could happen soon a look at why the fed's fight against inflation is growing more confusing >> plus, the end of work from home how far will employers go to get

their workers back to the office full time? contessa >> recession fears keeping a lid on the kngains. the dow down 190 at session lows we're yo-yoing all over the place. the dow is barely in the positive, s&p 500 up half of a percent and nasdaq composite is up .75%. financial stocks are higher this afternoon as yields rise you're seeings goldman sachs up 1.79%. energy stocks are lower. valero, philips 66, baker hughes, all down roughly 4%. shares of railroad stocks are mostly higher after a last-minute labor deal was reached, and strike averted. >> all right the fed's aggressive fight against inflation is at the center of the biggest debate on wall street. but the data dependent central bank has a big problem on its hands because the data are confusing. today, we learned that initial jobless claims fell last week to

the lowest level in three months and overall retail sales rebounded in august. this follows the hotter than expected inflation report tuesday that showed rising prices could be stickier than previously thought but we also saw industrial production fall and manufacturing activity in the new york and philadelphia regions contract, and we're hearing now from a growing number of high-profile business figures that an aggressive fed could spell trouble. ray dalio, bridgewater guy, says higher interest rates to quash inflation could tank stocks 20%. elon musk and cathie wood are warning of deflation and barry sternlic on "squawk box" today said ceo confidence is miserable and the economy is breaking hard >> now that inflation arrived and actually it's headed down, they are raising rates too aggressively this will be the fifth rate rise this year. >> so is the fed being too

aggressive, and is a hard landing maybe a very hard landing ahead? joining us now, rubilo faruqi, and peter boockvar, cnbc contributor. do you agree with what some of these business leaders are saying in that being as aggressive as it is, the fed is courting a recession and maybe a serious one? >> the fed -- good afternoon the fed is in a tough spot right now. you are seeing slowing momentum in the economy, but inflation is too high, and the message is really on inflation and inflation expectations so what we saw in the cpi data, we didn't really see any -- we saw an improvement on the headline, but we didn't see knan improvement on the core februarys. what we're seeing on rent inflation, it really doesn't leave the fed with a lot of choices, especially coming against the backe drop of a

labor market that remains extremely strong and wage growth that is elevated >> should we be surprised, peter, your broad thoughts in a moment, but should we be surprised that individuals who make a living investing and who have made a very nice living investing in a low interest rate environment, including investing in real estate, would be alarmed at the rate of increase in interest rates and alarmed that the fed may push it too high for too long >> yes, i guess i get your point and sort of talk in their book, but on the other hand, they do have their finger on the pulse of things so they see what's going on real time there's no way you get out of this inflationary environment in a painless way there's no way you get the most aggressive monetary tightening in 40 years in response to the highest inflation in 40 years in a painless way

it's just a matter of how much pain that you have to sustain. how much more does the stock market have to go down what is the extent of the recession going to be? and it's really tough to answer the questions. the question for the fed is, okay, they're going to go 75 next week. that's probably a lock it's what they then do there after. next week's rate hike is going to take the fed funds rate above the previous peak of the rate hiking scycle of 2018. that would be the only time in 20 years it's taking you above the previous peak. we're now entering and playing a real game of chicken with the economy and this very short rise in interest rates. just imagine being a small business that borrowed money going into this year, floating rate you did not budget a 300-plus basis point increase in rates and what it would do to your expense at the same time your cash flow is shrinking

>> i get you exactly on that but i guess i want to come back, before i turn it over to contessa for a moment, to your point where you said this is taking rates above the prior cyclical peak in rates can't you argue, though, that the situation is just completely different? you're talking about -- you're not talking about inflation at 2% or less you're now talking about inflation at 8%. so that the idea here is that well, of course, they're going to raise rates above the prior cyclical peak? >> i agree i'm not disagreeing with what they're trying to do, but look what broke in the fourth quarter of 2018 at a feds fund rate of 2.25% to 2.5%. the world freaked out, and here we are well above that with debt levels well above that, with the economy and markets more sensitive today on cheap money than it was then

and that's my point about getting into dangerous territory. you're right the inflation levels at 40-year highs is forcing them to do this >> i'll mention, you sent out several notes that run through a bunch of data points on retail sales, on manufacturing, on the business roundtable ceo outlook survey, and the way that's dropped. when you're looking at the data and gaming out this risk of recession looming, do you think that that's a greater risk for the overall economy and where we are than inflation to keep running as hot as it has been. >> i think the - >> rubilo, go ahead. >> i think the risk of recession, the risk of a policy mistake are pretty high. as we're discussing this, after september, 300 basis points of tightening in the pipeline what are we thinking about growth we're thinking about positive growth in the third quarter. we have no idea. we cannot say with any level of confidence what happens in the

fourth quarter because we are seeing slowing in momentum and household spending that is what drives this economy. we have to see how the consumer reacts we also have to see, you know, our estimates right now are not showing a substantial enough clear and compelling evidence of a slowdown in inflation. that means the fed has to remain, you know, has to maintain this policy stance, fwhubu the risk to the economy is pretty substantial, not something we can actually gauge right now, but i do think they haven't had much success in the past every rate hike, most rate hiking cycles have ended in recession. i think we're heading in that similar situation. to be honest, i think it's very sensitive even though the message is strong on inflation, they're sensitive to what's happening in the economy 300 basis points of hikes in the pipeline, i think they want to step back. >> i'm curious, we heard barry

say, listen, these are lagging indicators they're considering at this point. call up the ceo of walmart and ask him what's happening with inflation and consumer demand and consumer sentiment, because he's got a more current finger on the pulse of the consumer than cpi data might indicate is that realistic? is it realistic for the fed to consider what ceos are seeing day of >> they are looking at -- they're looking at a range of factors, but i think the labor market and wage growth and inflation expectations even,000 longer term inflation expectations are well anchored, the drift up is msomething they're concerned about and that's where their focus is, to get the labor market rebalanced, to bring that demand lower we're not really seeing that look at the claims numbers, look at labor market, look at job growth we're not really seeing -- and you're right, they are lagging indicators, but this is a fed if

we extrapolate inflation, we don't see it coming back quickly to 2%, and that is what the aim is and that's what they're going to continue to do >> rubila and peter, thank you for joining us really appreciate the perspective. >> all of this economic confusion is also causing some real dismay for investors. our next guest call it the most complex investing environment in her nearly 40 years in the business here to explain and tell us how to navigate it is nancy tangler, cio and ceo of laughler tangler investments. good to see you. 40 years is a long time. you're coming at this with a lot of market perspective at this point. i was very interested to read you say in this environment it's important to find reliable growers. why is that? give me some perspective about where we are and how you go about choosing >> you have no idea how long 40 years is, contessa, in this business >> you started when you were 5 >> wish.

thanks, tyler. i can always count on you. so i think it's important to remember that when growth is slowing and we know growth is slowing and it's about to slow further, that investors then turn their attention to companies that can produce reliable growth. and many of those companies happily are also dividend payers and are growing their dividends. and i have been managing money, equity income strategies since the mid-1980s. this isn't a fad for me, it doesn't always work, but dividend growth is in our view one of the best ways to generate express growth above inflation you want companies with high quality management it's great if they're in the sweet spot of the secular narratives driving this economy, like productivity improvements via technology, like robotics, because wages and workers -- wages are rising and workers are hard to find, but in general, this is not the time where you swing for the fences this is where you look for

reliable companies with strong management teams that can navigate the currents. we saw some really good earnings reports in the third quarter, but they have been overshadowed by all of the other noise. >> let's talk a little bit about what the esteemed ray dalio said in print i guess it was in print or an interview, that the market could guo down 20% if interest rates rise on the path the fed seems to be signaling. do you agree that kind of further decline from this level is possible or likely? >> well, anything is possible, of course. i'm not convinced it's likely. you know, you have heard jim paulsen talk about the time to buy stocks is when inflation is peaking. and he's right about that. and then if you look further and go back and analyze the last 13, 11 to 13 recessions, what you'll see is more than half of the time, stocks have been up in the recessionary period, and almost in every instance, 12 months later they're up a lot i think it's important, again,

this is why dividend payers are so important to a portfolio, because they do provide protection in a declining market and they provide return. hopefully faster than inflation. so i'm not a good market prognosticator i get it directionary where it's going, but i find that a lot of these predictions usually don't come to pass and that it's somewhere in between. i think we have seen the lows. that's my view >> interesting >> but it's just instinct. >> you know, you're very right an awful lot of prognostications do not come to pass. >> some of mine too. >> of course it's the nature of the game. we have a lot of people on we fill a lot of air time. we have 700 guests a week on cnbc globally, and you're going to hear a lot of talk. let's talk about a couple of the stocks you do like eog, energy company. chipotle, a different kind of energy, i suppose. l3 harris technologies

almost said something different. target take your pick which one do you like there? all of them, obviously >> eog resources are easy. they're in the nat gas and crude oil space. they had tremendous dividend growth, something over 68% i think five-year annualized because like all of these companies, they have changed their investment strategy to a capital allocation strategy, so they have grown the dividend they had $1.50, $180, $2, and $1 special dividend in the last year on top of their $3 regular dividend that's a great stock to put in the portfolio and just let it do the work for you in terms of target, it's well above the lows we saw in june. this is one of the best managed retailers in the world, frankly. dividend was raised about 20% last quarter and it generates a 2.6% yield. you're getting paid to wait for the consumer to stabilize and normalize. and then cmg has proven they

have pricing power they continue to raise prices, they continue to beat on earnings and they're in the sweet spot of the digital narrative. that's where you want to be. >> nancy, always great to see you. thank you for your time. >> thank you >> coming up, retail sales rose in august, but some discretionary categories saw pullbacks. which retailers are best positioned for a potential slowdown >> plus, how streaming is changing sports, as the nfl makes its big amazon debut tonight. >> and before the break, a look at netflix, which is moving higher on an upgrade to outperform at evercore isi, finally good news for netflix. the analyst says the stock could rally more than 30% as it rolls erceits ad-supported svi more power to you. in two minutes

. welcome back to "power lunch. well, the overall retail sales number came in better than expected boosted by a big jump in auto sales and noticeable declines on some discretionary spending receipts from stores that sell home furnishings, health care products, they all fell. my next guest says we're headed for more trouble let's bring in gerald storch, ceo of storch advisers and former toys "r" us ceo welcome back where is the trouble coming, and where is the coming from >> when you see what people are spending money on, they're spending it on food at grocery stores, and they're spending it to do work on their homes

themselves that's not what people do when times are good so basically, we're looking at high inflation, we're looking at a serious situation where the problem was created by fiscal policy by supply chain issues, by energy issues, by employment issuesic and by monetary policy. the only thing we're addressing is the fed is addressing monetary policy. all they can do is keep raising rates until they drive a stake through the heart of the american consumer. that's exactly what's happening now. you're going to see more >> should we have any surprise that one of the reasons the number came in better than expected was a jump in auto sales? the price of cars, new cars, is so high right now that it alone could drive retail sales higher. >> first of all, a lot of pent-up demand because cars haven't been available second, that increase was 6 pote 7% i bet the price of a car has gone up more than that there's no negotiating you pay the sticker price now. that's no surprise at all and

has nothing to do with what's going on underneath it all, which is that prices -- look at grocery prices, up double digits still. so people are using their money to do what they have to do first, the must-haves. apparel, even though it looked a little better in the back-to-school season, still one of the worst numbers on the page apparel the same thing when we get to fall, you'll be in a world of hurt people like gap are in big trouble on the horizon for these companies. >> i want to mention you're listing five reasons why we're in this problem, as you see it fiscal, excessive government spending, you say. explain chain, energy, employment because there's still a shortage of workers for many companies, and monetary. these loose central bank policies we just heard nancy tangler talk about target and how she likes the strong management there. if we're in such a difficult position because of factors way outside of the company's

control, can the risks be managed by strong leaders, by strong corporate teams >> i totally agree i think they can be, and it's the value based retailers who are going to thrive. target and walmart, they certainly had very tough springs, but that was left over, a hangover from what happened last fall when they bought too much trying to get, you know, product to the supply chain and not knowing what to buy or how much they're smarter than that so they'll be in good shape in the fall and they represent value. people like costco, again, year in and year out, a perennial outperformer with the consumer, and of course, the dollar stores dollar general, dollar tree, so well positioned. you can't leave out the home stores one of the big surprises is it doesn't seem to matter what's happening. people are spending at the home centers. that's in these numbers very clear. open book exam you're going to see great sales at home depot and lowe's when they report. >> let's look at a couple problem children you point out, gap and kohl's >> apparel has been sort of the

off cycle for apparel for years and years and years. there's been deflationary pressures in apparel prices so units have held up sometimes, the average price has not. that's going to continue there's so much clearance apparel out there. so they're heading into a storm that just isn't good it's true people bought more apparel for a little while when there was a reopening but they're kind of done with that, when you look at what's happening with sales it's not working anywhere but luxury it's been a surprise how well luxury held up, but it's highly correlated with the stock market the stock market continues down, even luxury is going to follow >> always good to see you. thank you again. >> my pleasure >> after the break, a rail deal. a potentially devastating railroad strike averted. president biden announcing a deal hours before the deadline it comes as labor tensions across the country rise. we'll have the latest developments next. plus, you musk return to office tesla's mandatory return to office not going so smoothly,

and the company's ceo may even be tracking employee whereabouts. "power lunch" will be right back as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid.

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a strike by railroad workers that could have added crippling effect on the economy was averted for now. kayla tausche joins us with the latest on the deal and what the president and the administration have to say about that today hi, kayla. >> hi, contessa. the biden administration and labor leaders are hailing this deal as a win. clinched overnight after 20 hours of negotiating the deal raises pay for workers in these 12 unions, it caps health care costs. and it relaxes a very restrictive absentee policy that was at the center of this debate with workers complaining they could be fired simply for going to an unexpected doctor's appointment. that was the real issue that negotiators were hammering through for hours. and earlier today, i asked the labor secretary himself, why did that one issue take 20 hours to figure out >> really what it was, it was mostly language. it was how do you write this as a lay person, you might read something and think, oh, that seems good in the law or in label law, it

means something completely different. so that's really where we were most of the issues -- all of the issues for the most part were nonmonetary, which is at the end of the day when you think about that, it didn't cost the carriers anything. it didn't really cost the workers anything >> here's the specific language they agreed on voluntary assigned days off for members working in through freight service. one additional paid day off. time off for preventative medical care and attendance exemptions for hospitalizations and surgery. already some union chat boards are lighting up with criticism of the deal, suggesting that one day paid off is laughable and that what they really wanted was paid sick leave, not more unpaid days even so, the secretary said unions would spend the next four to six weeks talking about the deal with rank and file members, fielding questions, and trying to get them to a yes on this deal come i asked him specifically if

they would definitively sign on, he would not go that far >> so they have some time, six weeks or so, to try and coax their members into voting for this in the meantime, is there anything else that the administration feels like it should be doing with those rank and file members >> well, certainly they feel like the president has been publicly talking up the need to respect union workers in at least three appearances just this week talking about union workers being highly skilled, needing more credit than they are currently getting. the administration has gone out there publicly in supporting that group and now it's up to leadership, but i should also mention even though there is a deal for rail workers, negotiations for port workers have stalled 15,000 nursers have walked out of the job, so there are other industries that probably need attention now. guys >> kayla, thank you for that >> let's get to seema moda who is right over there for a cnbc news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour.

president biden planning to meet tomorrow with family members of wnba star brittney griner and michigan executive paul whelan both of whom remain jailed in russia the meetings will be the first face-to-face encounters between biden and the families >> ursula van durling and the head of the european union have flown to kyiv to meet president zelenskyy. our freedom and international peace are priceless. >> and customs officially have reportedly built a database with personal info from electronic devices seized at airports and border crossings this according to "the washington post. the data can be accessed by customs officials without a warrant. info from as many as tens of thousands of devices per year are being added to the database, according to this report contessa and tyler >> curious, curious story there. seema, thank you very much >> ahead on "power lunch," the nfl's big amazon debut this

evening. if ratings are strong, it could mark a major shift in sports streaming and could impact the big money circulating the league, both internally and externally >> plus, one of the big six casinos in macao at risk of losing its spot. that name when "power lunch" returns. contessa's here to tell you about it - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that

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just about 90 minutes left in the trading day we want to get you caught up on the markets, on stocks and bonds, commodities, and returning to office. let's get a check on a market. the dow is essentially flat at this point bigger losses on the s&p 500, down .5%, and the nasdaq composite down nearly 1% on the day united health, jpmorgan chase, golden sacks, some of the biggest gainers on the dow, united up 3.5% the biggest laggards, microsoft down 2.25%, and ibm off 1.5% adobe shares hitting a low after making a $20 billion acquisition and issuing disappointing fourth quarter guidance humana shares are rising after

it raised earnings and revenue guidance, up, wow, look at that, almost 9% on the day it says it's seeing lower medical costs. now, let's go to the bond market and rick santelli tracking the move higher in the yields. hi, rick >> hi, contessa. it's been a wild few sessions in the treasuries and indeed, all sovereign and corporate rates across the globe as you consider 213,000 today for initial jobless claims that was the lowest level in 15 weeks, since the end of may. there was some good news, and retail sales was a mixed blessing, and ultimately, we're on pace for the sixth highest yield close in a row for two-year note yields let's look at the last three since cpi and you can see how w continue to escalate after the big run-up we had when cpi was released but it's much different the further down the curve you go. if you look at a three-day of ten-year note yields what jumps out is the high water mark there yesterday, intraday, was 3.48%,

but it closes lower. because 3.48%, if you open the chart up to june, you would find it was the mid-june high i will show that every day until we close above it, which will be a big technical green light for more selling bund yields, same scenarios. their mid-june high was 1.77 what was their high today, 1.77. we want to keep a close eye on tomorrow's market in europe, and finally, when it comes to the dollar index, the wan, onshore and offshore are at fresh two-year lows against the green back back to you. >> thank you very much oil closing for the day, falling back toward $85 a barrel, and pippa stevens is at the commodity desk now hi, pippa. >> hello energy prices are tumbling today, as the seesaw between gains and losses continues wti down more than 3%, with brent right around 90.87 this is a far cry from the more than $130 per barrel oil traded

at back in march but brokerage pvm noting present seems to have found a floor around the $90 level where it will continue to find support. citi adding there are massive uncertainties heading into winter as additional sangszs against russia kick in it is natural gas that is the relative underperformer today. it had a huge gain yesterday on the heels of that potential rail strike which could have boosted demand as utilities swapped coal for gas. the contract, though, giving back the gains, now down 9% after the railroads and labor unions reached a tentative deal on the heels of these declines, energy stocks are down about 2.3% every compone nnent is in the rd >> thank you and offices across the country, including hours, are welcoming back workers who in some cases haven't been here in two and a half years, but there's real tension here between the workers who want to stay home and the

bosses who insist they come back in person. that might be especially difficult when the boss is the richest man in the world laura is writing about it on cnbc.com tesla struggles with elon musk's strict return to office policy, and laura joins us now so how is it struggling with the policies >> so tesla at elon musk's request, at his mandate, ruled out this very strict return to office policy on the last day of may. he suddenly said you have to be here minimum 40 hours a week, and anything less is phoning it in so people who had been authorized to work remotely suddenly had to change their lives around and the hard part about it, since then, has been that tesla didn't build in enough new work spaces to accommodate everybody being present all the time together so you're seeing employees go to their cars to take work calls. there aren't enough basic supplies, there's slow wi-fi probably the most serious effect

of the policy is some people who were designated to work from home as much as neated or remotely were dismissed when they said they couldn't relocate to meet the new attendance requirement. >> i feel like i need to explain for everything that dongles are the little attachments that help you plug in your earphones to your cell phone. dongle is an actual term when you're talking about saying to employees you must be back, we don't care whether you have to sit in the broom closet, how are they even monitoring whether those employees are coming back in and doing what they're supposed to be doing for 40 hours? >> i spoke with several employees and saw extensive documentation including these reports going all the way up to elon musk that show at a granular level what is the rate of absenteeism every day across the country and they're doing this by tracking people's badging in to the various facilities so they know if you're on location it seems like not everybody is tracked to the same level, like

elon's direct reports aren't showing up in those reports on absenteeism. >> if your company gives you an air tag, be very skeptical >> it's not quite at that level, but right. the badging in to the tesla facilities >> laura, thank you very much. if you would like to read her article on tesla, you can visit cnbc.com >> let's talk more about this. and not just elon musk, other ceos including tim cook, jamie dimon, have expressed their desire to get most employees back to the work, most if not all of the time, while saying employees are resisted the idea. for more on this tug of war, let's talk to jim stewart of "the new york times," also a cnbc contributor, and he joins us via the phone hi, jim. how are you? >> i'm great thank you. >> what's the times doing, by the way? >> it's such an interesting issue. the times is asking everybody to be back three days a week. and the guild, which represents a lot of the reporters, haas

balked and said we're not coming in so they're something like 1300 gild members this week who are not going into the office. i'm not in the guild but i haven't been going in this week either. i just don't want to get in the middle of this fight >> wise, as always we're sort of on a three day a week plan here tuesday, wednesday, and thursday in, and fridays and mondays optional that sounds pretty reasonable. >> yeah, i can't object to that. i have to sigh from personal experience, and in the reporting business, it is helpful to be with your colleagues i would say two big stories i did in the last few years came through chance encounters with fellow reporters one of them led to this -- to my book which is coming out in february and it was all just because of a random encounter in the office that wouldn't have happened. so i'm going to be in there periodically but of course, i only live ten

minutes away so it's not a huge deal >> we hear from tim cook, we hear from jamie dimon. they seem to be saying the same things we need you here, collaboration is a lifeblood of our business >> i think -- i would trust them look, i'm not a banker i did work in a law firm in another life and there i would say collaboration also was very important. and i would take them at their word that, yeah, they need people in there. now, i do feel, you know, we have learned a lot from the pandemic one of which is that you can't trust people to make some judgments. it doesn't have to be five days a week, 40 hours a week. it doesn't have to be that regimented so there is a lot of room for flexibility. >> you know, jim, i'm skeptical, and tyler, and i have told our bosses this. part is you can't put the genie back in the bottle the other thing is, if you look at productivity, and we know that productivity was sustained

during work from home, that it necessarily dives if people have to go home to manage their life rather than incorporating work into life at home, and i'm not reading anybody talking about this, but all these companies, apple, starbucks, jpmorgan chase, goldman sachs, have very well publicized commitments to climate initiatives. i want to know about this conflict between being concerned about the environmental impact and forcing your workers to undertake in many cases significant commuting challenges in order to just have collaboration and chance encounters in the office >> well, yeah, i think that last point is honestly not something i had pondered but is a great point. here in midtown manhattan, which is the center of a huge workforce, they're trying to put in congestion pricing to reduce the amount of transportation,

vehicles coming into the city, and that's completely inconsistent with going back to the old get everybody into the office all the time. and a lot of them don't use mass transit. so i think that's a good question that's a really good point i think also, though, the whole balance of power here has shifted. the idea that there's this top-down management that orders the workforce what to do has really been challenged in the pandemic in a way that i never would have dreamt possible i think shrewd managers are going to realize there is room for more flexibility here. just to use a personal example if i'm hibernating, writing a story, i have done all the reporting, i had the ideas i have been to the story meetings, all i'm doing is hibernating and writing, i'm better off at home there are so-called writing rooms in the "times" where people would go in there, close the door, put a do not disturb sign on there, and vanish for

the entire day now, they don't need to be in the office and i'm sure there are similar situations, maybe somebody is writing a report on a research thing where it's beneficial to be away and more productive. >> can't argue with that >> agreed. >> thanks for preaching, jim >> good to see you or good to not see you but hear you >> up next, espn, no gambling. disney's ceo giving a strong statement regarding his network and placing bets we'll be right back with more. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪♪

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since 2016 now, tonight is the first of 15 regular season games that nfl is going to be airing on amazon prime video. the question is how many people stream to tune in. amazon has warned of some ratings growing pains. initial viewership is expected to drop dramatically from the 16 million people who tuned in to fox thursday games last year, though over time the nfl expects viewership on streaming to exceed that of linear tv >> we're not obsessed about the number we think it will be lower, but we have full confidence in amazon that that number will grow and given the trends in digital, i think these digital numbers will at one point, i can't tell you when, will merge with the same viewership of television that's just the growth that digital that we see. >> now the question is which tech company, which streamer snags the rights to nfl sunday ticket and nfl media both of those rights are up for grabs. apple, disney's espn plus, google's youtube, and amazon

prime are in all talks according to sources familiar. rollout tells us that the nfl's app that launched for the start of the season, nfl plus, is off to a good start, in part of a broader push to bring the nfl direct to consumers. >> and in the world that i cover, julia, gambling, i have heard about all of those companies, apple, amazon, espn and whether there's interest in them becoming gambling companies with their interest in sports. espn, number one sports network, seems like there's an obvious overplay there >> an obvious opportunity, but disney's ceo just today said that he didn't want disney espn to be a sports book itself he wanted them to partner with the sports book and he did understand the opportunity, but it didn't make sense for disney or espn to itself do that gambling business. it will be interesting to see which of these companies they team up with >> coming up, apple dethroning tesla as the number one most shorted stock according to s3.

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welcome back to ""power

lunch"" s 3 partners releasing the latest list of shorts on wall street, number one is apple, number two tesla, and microsoft coming in third place. here to help trade them is jeff mills, a cnbc contributor. let's kick things off with apple, jeff. >> hi, con sessa apple is a stock we own but i don't feel good about the prospects in the near term look at this from fall of 2020 to early this year it broke the bottom so i would be looking to about 150, if it breaks below that level you could see a swift move lower that set up worries me a little bit. and then just from a valuation standpoint at almost 25 times forward earnings it hasn't been this expensive in the ten years prior to covid even if earnings expectations stay where they are in the out

year, looking out to 2024, still trading at 23 times earnings so not particularly cheap. i think the crux of the story is the slowing consumer we saw retail sales today, we know the story about credit card debt continuing to rise, some stress evident there and warnings on the hardware side and iphone is still 50% of the sales. the valuation is where it is and i describe the chart near term i think there's more down side. >> i'm hearing you say you think the shorts are right on apple. are they right on tesla? >> tesla has been a stock i've been wrong about over and over again, maybe i'm a good contra indicator there. the competition is rising, elon musk is distracted doing too many things, the stock is expe expensive. but i think there's some good with tesla

one year ago this is a stock trading 150 times earnings and now 57 times forward so the valuation is clearly better it's basically as cheap as the stock has been and it does have a margin advantage compared to the likes of gm, ford, incumbents for me this is a stock that's hard to be long and also hard to be short i looked at the daily standard deviation. and it has four times the daily volatility it's dangerous if you time it wrong. >> a yes, no question, microsoft. >> short term, no down side based on the chart. >> jeff mills, thanks for that. still to come, wynn's big trouble in china is the company at risk of lozing its spot, con tell a will tell go science people.

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risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. for a prospectus news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing. higher after an upgrade from credit swiss which pointed out the vegas boom and the doubling of space gambling industry insiders say wynn could face a serious threat in macau because of a new competitor on the scene, denton group operates resort world casinos here in the united states, london and elsewhere and making a play for a license in macau. six concessions, seven bidders

and the government has laid out serious priorities that require significant capital nvestment at a time when profits have turned to losses my sources say that denton may be targeting perceived weakness in wynn's bid, balance sheet, losses in leadership -- denton is an asian company with outside gaming experience, and there's a series of requirements for the concession renewal each one is ranked, given a score. you have denton as the surprise bidder you think for wynn to lose this concession, they would have to submit the seventh worst bid. >> would that mean wynn would not be represented in macau. >> first the gaming licenses would move to another concessionee, and then the operations, wynn would have to work it out, sit worthwhile to keep just retail, entertainment, probably not

>> in other words they could have their hotel but it would be retail and entertainment, not gaming. >> even then, the concessions are -- land is conceded by the people of macau, people of macau own that land, not wynn. >> interesting jeopardy there. >> but the company said they don't do anything second rate. >> good. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. another up and down session here on wall street as investors look for direction we're back in the down swing with the nasdaq feeling the most pressure welcome to closing bell i'm sara eisen. look where we stand in the market down almost a percent on the s&p 500. we have two sectors hanging in positive territory, health care and financials, everybody is lower. utilities, energy and technology are the bottom performers that's why the nasdaq is down 1. % right now. remember, we've been struggling for bounce