very impressive degree. they are going to buy back a lot of stock. they are expanding into a lot of new markets, it is a no brainer. >> so you have old tech and newtek. right at the time where technology stocks are under some serious pressure. i will talk to you soon. that is george the. i hope every has a good evening, i will see you back tomorrow, that does it for us. fast money begins right now. the mac right now, and after our warning from fedex. we will go inside the numbers straight ahead. this warning along with the course of the economy, taking the pedal off the metal next week. plus, a big upgrade, why one periods the mac later, amazon.

traded or faded, yay, coming up. i am melissa lee. this is fast money. a full house tonight, take a look at this. a rare occurrence. all joining me here, the warning , frank holland is here onset. >> yes, melissa, early warning. it really hit the stock. issuing that warning, saying that it is facing a soft macroenvironment, been a bigger mess, obviously that pressure, it is really that guided, take a look at the numbers. you don't need to be a mathematician to figure this out. fedex guiding. it is also drawing the guidance. they expect business conditions

to weaken. spelling out the issues, saying in part, global volume has declined. they lagged those volume declines, they remind hi, i spoke with a few company executives. the big issue is there overseas. bringing systems on line, this is something that has been a continuing drag on results, also, covid lockdowns lasting longer than expect did. volume is returning slower than expected. they cut hours for workers enclosed about 90 fedex office stores. again, they cut costs as they face the weakening demand. >> they guidance, they talked about their guidance in the forward-looking forecast, june 23. this is really falling off a

cliff, literally. for them to cut in half the guidances of the quarter. it is amazing what has changed. >> in all fairness, fedex is seeing a very different picture. everybody was feeling very optimistic, they put out some very optimistic targets for the future fiscal years, also raised the dividend. a lot of optimism. companies generally don't raise their dividends. one thing that i don't think anybody could have forecasted, volumes in asia are being much slower. >> thank you so much. we have done this a few different times where we have talked about fedex, how much of this is fedex and how much of this is the environment? >> i don't know for sure. always, some of it is fedex. the irony that the one thing that they delivered early or on

time was a preannouncement. a little bit less now than i was an hour ago, a few reasons. number one, this is disappointing. i think that cutting in half is actually making it worse than it seems, they probably had, some of the cost reduction initiative. one thing that i find hard to believe, they feel very confident as this relates to 2025. i find it hard to believe even that june 23, they feel really good about this, august and september of this year. it is a difficult environment. i will give them that, but it is very frustrating, the new ceo. he has been there a long time but not in that role very long. i think what is going to happen. even though it is cheap, i think we are going to see a number of companies start to say something similar and fedex,

with its reputation will trade down each time. i just feel like it will get pounded again and again. now i just, you know what, i'm going to lighten up, i'm going to do some trading, sell high cost. if i want to revisit i could either by ups or i could wait 31 days and by fedex. it is very disappointing, more broadly, what does that mean? >> talking about the difficult environment, ge warning moments ago, saying that the supply chain continues to be tough and it continues to impair his ability to deliver to customers. this is adding to the corporate bad news. >> first of all, we have seen this before. fedex is much more important to the economy.

she might as well have said that ups is running their business so much better. that is really the story. when you think about the ability to handle, balancing, that gross margin is probably three or four turns better. ultimately, frank mentioned the community and where they are on this. citibank's actually downgraded fedex, a week ago, maybe early last week. great foresight, again, the point, the issue that is different, look, this is a warning.. >> i think that that was a big thing. what does that mean for the bigger picture? we have to see a slowing economy. eventually the fed will start lowering interest rates. we don't think it is coming anytime soon, but they start to get more data like this, that

starts to have an argument against if they need to continue. >> there is also the question of the corporate side of the business in terms of businesses sending packages, et cetera. we have not come as you have made the point repeatedly, we have not's, not heard, you have to wonder if that is coming down the pipe. >> let's take it back, we had a couple of double downgrades, we saw target, we saw microsoft. microsoft was really interesting. again come on two occasions they said that they are not seeing a weakening in enterprise demand, i think if you are starting to connect some of these dots it is pretty simple to start thinking about when you see other companies, it is not until we start seeing the lay of, art scene, asic the, you are going to see the enterprise companies pulling back. i think it is interesting that we see companies push through

with as much as they could to different their margins. i think with these warnings tell us, that is not going to continue for the balance of the year. we talked about this last night, if you are acl when you used to be in a situation in the last couple weeks of a quarter and you say, all right, let's make this, let's just figure out the next quarter, i don't think that is happening, i think that is what is going on with gm fedex. i think we're going to see that accelerate. i think, again, pulling full year, it tells you how we visibility is. starting right now. >> yeah there is nowhere that you can spend i am a good point >> they're focusing on asian the fact that lockdowns affected them much more than had been anticipated. in terms of europe you have to worry about the fuel cost and the demand drying up given what is going on with inflation and energy costs there.

>> yes. i imagine, they are cutting their own, i don't know if ge will announce something similar, where i guess we are going to see more. >> fedex has made it clear that they have been a little bit longer term thinking. on some level we should be thinking into 24. except that this is a fact that this is a company that has a lot to fix. the pricing power that shippers have had, they have the higher end of the price range. let's see what they can do going forward. >> taking look at how the stocks are reacting. that tells me, this is much more of a fedex issue than anybody else's issue giving ups is down percent and fedex is down 15. >> yes. that is exactly right. that's what you want to look at here.

fedex, this could be a problem for them. there down, what, 14% right now. they have done this before. they're going to take down the guidance. i think moving forward it's nothing that i'm worried about for the overall market. >> listen, when you think about ups, these are cheap stocks, i know you prefer those, versus the expected growth. it looked like, on a peg basis it looked pretty attractive. some of these stocks that look like really good values as the economy, i think a lot of investors were starting to think that we were pricing the worst-case scenarios in. you have, all of a sudden, the economy is weakening. we have the deceleration, now we actually have a weakening global economy. i think, you know, the situation in europe and china into this. it is hard to conceive a scenario where we are not going to be in the recession.

i know, take these companies for what they are telling you. they tell you that they have no visibility. >> i never think that companies should do guidance. >> many do. what are they supposed to say in this environment? we have a lot of clarity? >> the consensus, $5.44, they are coming, you know, whatever. all of a sudden they had built in a huge bucket, >> what is the upside? >> they are being judged based upon what they told us. i realize at some point they have to come in and restated, lower the bar. i think, dan is saying that you know, let's not try to get through the quarter. i just think that fedex is a

case where this has been a story that, to me, in this environment, by the way, we saw today, pricing across shipping is going higher. we have not even started to do the labor cost. we are complaining, really, this is a fedex cost issue is much as a demand thing. >> go ahead, the markets are selling off anyway. >> they are, clearly, things have changed very dramatically. how are they supposed to have the confidence? >> here is what is really hard come the last time that they pulled those for the full year it was in the throes of the pandemic. what was happening? we have the fed and we have the treasury throwing trillions of dollars at that. the exact opposite is happening. >> why have guidance then? >> okay, we can actually have them, right now we are two

years past that. we are here, the pandemic is over and the chinese are locking down cities of 20 million. my point is, you know, we are not going to ease out of this for the stock market right now. >> i think, you know, the russia and ukraine situation created a european crisis that in some ways is just as big as the pandemic. this is a big deal. >> you are both saying the same thing. remember in october november. we were seeing the stock market rallying aggressively, we are not getting back to normal, we are getting back to a place where we have these headwinds, we have another scared coming out of europe and e have supply-chain issues. >> that is setting up the trade. we are unwinding that trade now.

as much as it was volatile and unpredictable on that side of the trade it should be just as much though, maybe more so on this side of the trade. i think that is sort of what the theory would be. we should note that we started the morning very interestingly with some very, very stern comments from real estate billionaire barry stirling saying that the cracks are starting to form in the economy. if they take the foot off of the gas now we will see a serious recession. now we have the warning from fedex. let's bring in our senior economic supporter on all of what has happened. >> steve, obviously you take the comments with a grain of salt, he is a real estate guy, his whole business is built on lower rates, but still, when you add the real-time data that we are getting from fedex you have to wonder whether or not the fed is going too much full steam ahead. >> i think the argument of

people like you gary and other folks, the fed is either disconnected from what is happening in the real economy, and or operating on old data. i think the fed might respond in this context, what is happening now and what he is seeing to some extent, it is precisely what they want to see in terms of the slowing economy. it is taking it on. higher interest rates, and what is happening in the real estate market. unclear to me that the rest of the economy is taking it quite so severely. i was looking back at walmarts earnings report just a month ago , it was fairly robust, the same with home depot. it depends on how you look at them, the numbers were pretty robust. we are definitely seeing the slowing here, whether or not we are seeing the stoppage, terry mentioned walmart.

walmart has, additional guidance to give. they are launching new electronics. you don't get a sense from them that they believe the consumer is and me sort of a hard stop there. >> the concern, yesterday, they told others, basically, the fed is doing this. the economy is slowing right now. those two back to back 70 75 point hikes have not hit fully, correct? when that does hit, what happens to the economy? >> almost certainly. first of all, barry mentioned

the idea that he it is okay to go down to 3 to 4%, that is unacceptable. look at how difficult it is to figure out what is going on in the economy right now with inflation the way that it is. retail sales came in, how much of that was inflation how much was not? the fed is not going to move off of that goal of 2% in say, okay, 3 to 4% is good enough. that is the first thing. the other thing, which is really significant, is the idea that we have to slow down the economy somewhat here. where you interest rates ought to be? do you believe that we are in a world of low underlying secularly low inflation? we need to go back to the good old days when it was one or 2%. i think that you can make a pretty good argument, there is an underlying funds rate.

i feel like there is a good theme out there, some people want to click their heels and go back to kansas where the funds rate was 2%. i don't think that we are going back to, i think if you were thinking about the portfolio right now, you ought to think about the funds rate. >> i'm sorry to interrupt, i don't think anybody here is thing that we should, you are implying an actual pivot. we are just wondering if there should be a pause, not a reversal, let's see where we are. >> there is a difference, let's go back. breaking with and a and raking with nea. my question is, so, the feds, essentially, in july started in, we don't really know the

impact of what our rates and what our hikes have done to the economy. that was where the market got a lot of ammunition to interpret this as a pivot. the fed, two months ago, was telling us that they were little bit concerned about this. >> yeah, look, the fed does not want to break the economy,. but, remember what they have said, is breaking inflation requires breaking the economy i think that they are going to do that. a mild recession is something that the fed would tolerate. it has elevated the importance of reducing inflation above economic growth. it feels, by the way, still

that there is some play in the economy, some of that comes from what is happening in the jobs market which is still, you know, you saw you still have a large number of job openings. you still have a labor supply issue. the read is -bent on this issue. look, ery stern, complaining is what you would expect to hear, hate to say this, if the fed is doing its job. >> i think they are also looking at outdated data, inflation might be coming down. it is interesting. this is probably just as much as the other argument right now. we do need to seize certain things, i think we are going to have a strong labor market and also a tight housing market, those are things that have to come down. even though we are seeing warnings from places like fedex i don't think that's what they are going to need. i think most people assume it is going to be a week.

we are going to have to see a little bit more before they come down. >> you as always for joining us. >> just one more thing. i did get some data back today that does show rates in some cities are peaking, i wish i could cite the study that i just read. that is the sort of thing that i think they are going to look at. the trouble that that that is going to have, that is going to take some time to work into the data. they have a really important argument, it may not show up in the data before the fed did, still, the fed has to get to a place, that destination is 3 1/4 to 4%, that is where they are going, >> all right, thank you. in terms of the data and what is showing up, maybe job losses have not started to hit the data, the overall headline number. >> yeah, when you have the announcements that we just had,

i will just say this, this is actually setting up a little bit like june, the s&p sold off 10%, that prohibit. then what happened, we rallied out of it, a lot of investors thought that they were going to do exactly what courtney just thought about. here is the thing, the problem now, if we rally adding this, we are going to take the petal off the metal right now, they have gotten to the point where they have gotten above 3%, maybe that is the new normal until the next crisis. i guess what i'm thinking about, if they are taking a pause it is because they broke something, i don't know, however you want to spell it, because the economy is starting to slow dramatically. maybe it is just acknowledging some of the pressure that has been put on some of the things. maybe they are going to say that we expect unemployment to rise above 4%. >> that is not going to be good

for stocks the way that it has in the past. said fund starts going lower. >> i just think that the fed needs to have credibility as well as trying to address the inflation issue. for them to lose credibility by turning, right now, after we are starting to see some progress, or no progress, i don't know if they can do it. >> the fedex ceo will be joining tonight, that is a must see interview. coming up, analyst rolled the dice, one of wealthy-- one of wall street's top executives. he will join us when we return. .

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>> welcome back to fast money. shares are surging. analysts are seeing more upsides in the las vegas business. should investors be placing their that?

on win. >> i think so, i have thought so for a while, i have not thought so necessarily, they have some properties. i think, you know, we have gotten got out of caesars about what is going on, it is record time. if you think about the core business in the u.s. it is very strong, in terms of what is going on, there is some sense, we have started to hear some things about where licensing and renewal are going, i think that some of the pressure is off. this is really about shutdown, this is about covid. in some sense we have a little bit more visibility on opening. i know it doesn't sound great today. >> things are hot on the strip right now. >> we just spent 22 minutes talking about how things were going to slow down and there's

going to be a recession. >> i think that the conference business comes back the way that it does. i know that it came back in this window, if you have all of these, we just saw, google, last week said that nonessential travel and things like that, to me, this is a lot of the post covid hangover. people had to get there las vegas fix. >> you take these completed and you have cut them in half. if you look at the stock they are priced near covid lows, i think the valuation is where i get more excited. >> i think as much as there is some short-term optimism with the biggest, i think months ago we were talking about, oh, it looks like they're going to be reopening, it is going a lot more slower than normal. there are only so many players. i think if you are of the mindset that china is going to reopen you are going to be a beneficiary of that. >> there is a lot more fast money to come up.

>> the nfl making its big amazon debut, so, will the e commerce giant deliver? the traders are tackling that one next. you are watching fast money, life on the nasdaq market site in times square. we are back right after this. kick pain in the aspercreme. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market my finances were all over the place. and my banking relationship was getting... well, complicated. hahaha! so, i broke up with messy accounts and moved my money to sofi. now i earn higher interest on my checking and savings,

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>> welcome back to fast money. wall street giving the big tech deal to thumbs down. adobe dropping nearly 17%, getting a major premium in the

deal, just last. was valued at $10 billion. software's ace has and suffering this year. the ig be, it is down over 30%. our next guest predicts that we will see that. known for hitting number one on the institutional investor all star list. 17 times in a row. longer than the show has been on the air. rick, it is an honor to have you on fast money. where do you think that will happen? in terms of where the targets come from? the public we traded market or in the private markets where there seems to still be a willingness to give them premiums? >> let's start with some context. valuations are down a lot. the stocks, from the peak in november, are down 65% and, the

software group. the valuation for the highest group are down from 35 times next year's revenue to eight. the broader groups have improved. the valuations are down a lot. whether we think that is the bottom is something that we need to think about. i think that you need to get through the third quarter earnings reports , you go through an economic slowdown, the customers are more cautious with the spending. companies, for some are trying to to the own spending. i think that we need to reset the expectations for 2023. every company is becoming a digital enterprise. you know, the buyers of the software, it needs to be

something that you would sell to i.t. another point, you know, when the window does open backup you are going to see a lot of companies going public. the valuations will be more reasonable. we saw this in the last cycle, we had zero interest rates and free money. the pipe laying-- the pipeline is extremely robust. i think that we are going to see an increasingly active market. something that we are very act of in. i think that the strategic, the companies with all the cash, would like to see more capitulation from the private companies. those expectations were set last year in this environment

of very high multiples, if you go into next year i would expect that you will see more capitulation on the valuation expectations and the premiums that are required to make these happen. also, you have private equity with a whole load of cash. there are many functioning debt markets. they are very eager and actively looking at this. i think it suggests that mnj, in the abscess, is going to see a lot more consolidation coming in the sector. >> rick, no doubt about that, you know, when you see adobe lose the market cap of what they agreed to pay for the company that they are acquiring, doesn't that kind of makes some take a step back? 50 times sales sales seems like something that is so 2021.

yeah, there was a lot of pe bids for software earlier this year. it seems like they have not been around a whole heck of a lot, there have been a couple of big deals, i guess just on that front. >> yeah, i really need to stay away from individual stocks, i used to enjoy chatting with you about those, i'm trying to develop social skills and stop talking about stocks. i can't go there on adobe, but broadly, to your point about private equity, you know, they are dependent on leverage. even though they have been writing bigger equity checks, we are starting to see signs that the debt markets are becoming more functional, we are starting to see more block trades. we are encouraged by increasing financing activities, i think that strength shows that they can do all the things that they would like to do, also, the strategic's, a you need to see the rear capitulation, and i think as time goes by, you

know, companies will have their valuation expectations softened. that will combine with more fully functional financial markets. >> rick, it is great to get your take on these things. we will have you back. >> what do we think, dan makes a good point about how much it is paying for something that is expected to only give it to percent sales growth. >> you know, on the recurring revenue, they do in a year what adobe does in five minutes it seems. so, dan pointed out 50 times, i will just say, also, this was a combination of two things. this is a company that, when you here, as an investor, you may have to take out, we are going to pause the buybacks,

this is exactly what they said. if you are somebody, this stock has been a very predictable cash flow machine, i think that is where some of the disappointment is. the last couple of quarters the numbers have not been great and i think that plays into this today. >> also, 10 billion cash, 10 billion stock, they are basically selling, right there. >> they are using that as currency. >> right, what does that tell you about their confidence? it is an extraordinarily expensive deal. i'm kind of surprised. >> i will just say, i mean 25 times free cash flow, again, we just talked through these. >> i will be shocked if this deal gets done. >> they want, they can't, they don't have the right. >> coming up, the ecommerce kickoff. a big night for amazon as the nfl the day he was-- debuts its

first game. we are guilty-- we are gearing up. we are gearing up. that is next on upwork.com

>> welcome back to fast money, if you are just joining us check out fedex, they are down 15 and half percent. the company is hiding higher cost, also being hit hard, not as hard as you can see, they are getting hit. moving on, amazon making its nfl debut in just a few hours. the company straining tonight's game between the los angeles chargers in the kansas city chiefs. the nfl deal grants amazon exclusive rights to carry the thursday night games. >> well, tonight is the first of , it is going into tonight's game after a week of gains, it is up 5% over last year with the biggest opening weekend the nfl has seen since 2016.

now the question is, which streamer will snag the rights to end and-- nfl sunday ticket. will it be espn+, google, youtube. all of them are having talks with nfl. >> we think that sunday ticket is a package that is right for innovation. we think that digital will do that. whatever you see, i think you will see a much more digitally focused sunday ticket. >> looking dion amazon, they do not want espn to become the sports book that does not open the door for partnerships when disney does take the next step and allows gambling through espn+. >> thank you, , how are you feeling about these, what does this? >> all right, so my parents but

their credit card and amazon probably like four years. my dad likes football, do you think that he has any idea how to watch the streaming prime membership? this has the potential to be a disaster for people. >> the graphic, but not the only, >> a bunch of millennial's walking around watching it on their iphone. >> you can actually login to do this. digital format is nothing like they have ever seen. it is a watershed moment. i mean, i just think, you know, we see what the trend is in terms of the player salaries in the villages of the league and the need to actually monetize more aggressively than ever. why else do we watch, you know,

some of these sports, other than cnbc, of course, our parent network, on sunday. >> i think that the only reason that my house has cable was specifically because of sports. if that'll goes to streaming we would probably cut cable. i think that my parents and grandparents probably don't want to do that. >> oh, really? that is nice. >> they're going to figure it out. >> not tonight they want. >> know, there watching cnbc fast money. by the way, there is a button that usually says prime >> i have an apple tv, it is not as easy as people think. the mac all right. >> coming up, homebuilder hype,

some option bidders are betting on the shaky foundations, how they are applying that next, hd kanye west weighing in, but head to say about the retail landscape and his own clothing line. he talked to cnbc. we will have the details when we return.

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>> welcome back to fast money checkout, kb homes, the stock down, option traders making huge bets. this will not appreciate any time soon. my goal has got the action. >> yes, they treated us 16 times the average volume. the reason for that was a very large trade. what we saw was actually a substantial position in the january 20, 2024, out to january 2025. that represented a near 50% decline in the stock price net of the premium that they are spending on those. i would make the quick point that the company is double be rated, that is noninvestment grade. some of the debt is yielding over eight is double be rated, that is noninvestment grade. some of the debt is yielding over 8%. my suspicion is this is probably a hedge against a bond position. >> any feelings towards the home

builders? >> we were talking about where the interest rates are going. there is a supply issue, i'm waiting for my opportunities. >> mike, i will see you tomorrow, tomorrow is the full show. that is that by: 30. coming up, kanye west weighing in, the details when fast money returns. and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.

>> welcome back too fast money is a gold digger or a guru. he is exiting his partnership with easy and the gap, he also wants to end his deal with adidas. he says that. >> i signed on with them because they have, in the contract they said that they were going to build stores. it was very frustrating when they ignored this.

i put everything that i had. >> it looks like he was in a closet. putting that aside, basically, trading or fading, maybe it is a good move. mac gap said we are terminating. they are not trying to fight it, but we can see that later. there are a few products that are still to come out, those are going to be so hot. collectors items, whatever it is. >> i mean, they want to do the partnership. as talented as he is, as huge of the following as he has. do you where those? >> no.

>> the way that you asked that question, do you. >> he is a sneaker head. >> i'm a hard-core nike guy. >> what is the deal with gap? >> if anything, he definitely knows how to sell stuff. he is a fashion icon. the gap, right now, they are closing stores. if you are looking at the last profitable stores. this is probably not good and it is something that is not doing well for them. >> what is your take on the gap and where it is, and the alleged turnaround? >> i think that it is very difficult, remember how much of the stock went up? rmofink that this is bad in tes , i think any hit that they have in the holiday season

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reminder here, the ceo will be joining jim on mad money, a couple minutes away from that interview. what would you want to ask him? >> what happened. i am okay with him not giving guidance. i am really frustrated with this again and again. how can they have confidence in their plan for 2025? if you did not see this coming, i don't blame them, it is a difficult environment. >> yes. a credibility problem to say the least. final trade time, tim seymour. >> i think that the inventory issue is certainly much better. >> yeah. do not buy the dip here. >> improvement in the outlook, i like that call. we see 70%, march him is

actually one of the ones within the retailers. >> yeah, on amazon, really quickly, i mean like getting it on your tv. anybody can sit in their bed and watch the game on their laptop but that is not the "fa. meanwhile, "mad money" sitting down with the ceo of fedex that starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate, teach, and put everything into context, even the tough stuff. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. how can you have conviction in a market that seems bent o