short of lng. >> all right we'll leave it there chuck lieberman, thank you enjoy the weekend. see you on the other side. it's going to be a big week ahead. what a rough week for stocks dow down 4%, the s&p near 5%, nasdaq about 5.5%. got that fed meeting looming hope you have a great weekend. i'll see you on the other side "fast money" begins now. on "fast," stocks limp to the finish of a bruising week. t the industrials, housing, not one sector spared. with the fed decision looming do investors need to brace for more pain red ink dominated the tape, apple proving the consumer is willing to spend a list of the shopping names holding newspaper this down market later our stock of the week. that's week with an "a." >> i get it. >> five days of trading, this

one stock has been drilled to the tune of almost 85ers the name and trade minutes away. i'm frank holland and this is "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site we are going clockwise, tim, jeff, and steve, he is right here we start with the market that are, well, fed up. the s&p 500 falling almost 5% this week. breaking through that key technical level of 3,900 yes, fedex had the worst and highest volume day, dropped more than 21% but a big decision on interest rates next week a lot to think about here. the selling was kind of across the board. companies experiencing brutal market cap losses this week. microsoft, alphabet, amazon, meta, fedex making that list so ahead of the meeting do investors need to brace for more rough days ahead or did today's finish with the markets well off the lows give you guys a little bit of hope? just a little bit? steve, over to you.

>> a brace a little more for volatility for september, october. i think we thought we would get a reprieve, a lighter cpi number we didn't get that fed? going to be aggressive, more hawkish than we thought. if that's the case then the market must go lower on that screen tech leads the market up and tech leads the market down i would say that we should brace for impact what i mean by impact is don't worry about the june low worry about the february 2020 level which is around 3,300. i think there is no reason why the market should be here and with headwinds it's more of a case to drop to that level. >> brace for impact, the impact 100 points on september 21st or 75 >> sorry the fed level, 75 and possibly 50 basis points. now the conversation is 75 basis points or 100 basis points so either one is going to be negative for the market. this is more negative than we

priced in. so i think the market ultimately goes lower. >> jeff, how are you seeing things a lot of people trying to get out of stocks. mega-cap tech stocks losing ng market cam where do we possibly see a recovery >> next week with the fed i think it's going to come down to the commentary i think 75 basis points is very, very likely. it's going to be about what powell says. thinking about what is likely to happen next, i think it's easy to fall into the trap of saying sentiment is negative, everybody is expecting a recession, we are in this bear market already, but i think the problem is looking at valuations right now it may not give you a a great sign of what they truly represent because i still think that that compressions and that goes book to fedex maybe this is a watershed moment maybe companies finally start talking about earnings in a way that is more consistent with the economic reality i think ultimately it's that earnings component that limits the upside i talked about this last week. even if earnings don't move for

2023, that's $243 a share expected 17 times multiple. that's still only 4,100 on the upside if that e come pretss, it makes it more difficult. >> the fed is trying to bring inflation under control, we have no idea where demand is. fedex last night i think we well flagged whether this was a company-specific story or cyclical story fedex is a company that behaves more cyclicly than they should but clearly we're waiting for the fed to kick in part of today's i think takeaways are this week's -- or this week's takeaways related to growth and credit. if you look at the dollar, pound hit multi-decade lows against the dollar it this week, credit is teetering a little bit, too talk about the clo market and we talk about high yield market on this desk. when you have a pull back in growth and that's what fedex

said, that's what jim cramer asked raj said, he said i think we are going into a recession. that's what this felt like, a week where not only were we affirming global growth has been slowing down, how about adobe? they lost 20 billion it was an acquisition that they announced but also a terrible guide by one of the companies that has been so cash flow accretive. i think this week we kind of moved down the progression of what's been going on. >> one thing d adobe, that was offense and defense. it was keeping figma away from salesforce and microsoft one thing back to fedex, you're in the camp that it's a macro problem, not a fedex problem >> i think both. i think fedex underperformed in terms of their gross margin so long they talked about global growth. they talked about europe they talked about asia they talked about also cost side this is where they have been terribly inefficient this draws a bright light on the

companies not doing this we will talk about those companies delivering and delivering free cash flow. fedex is not one of them. >> we are looking at the brute at losses here you looked at me like you had something to say fedex problem or macro problem >> i do think it's both. the macro problem is creating the company specific problems because demand is falling. we account have rallies. we have had them this year, bear market rallies are the norm, not the exception. watch a couple of things tim mentioned t you have to watch credit that's the tell all year you have had rallies but by and large credit has continued to deteriorate and broad leadership what is leading during those rallies? we talked about banks performing okay but looking at them relative to a sector like utilities they continued to make new lows watch the leadership complexion of market rallies. that's really important. pay attention to credit. that will be a very good tell in terms of the staying power.

>> why we have had those rallies, those rallies have all been fed-based this is not something that we even have control over or the fed has no control over this so everything is it going to be negative or positive going forward with the fed >> i'll answer it. it's rhetorical. negative so that means that the market is going to trade lower if the market is led around because the percentage based on the s&p with tech stocks and those are the names that will get hit the harders. >> quadruple witching day was that a factor? obviously, the expiration of a lot of derivatives as opposed to fedex spooking a lot of people? ments i think it's always a factor it's always a factor with volumes versus directionality. so you have to look at where the people are set up or traders are set up with options related. so how much do they have for sale this is no -- we all know what was coming down the pike on this so it was half and half, if i can play it that way.

>> all right the s&p wrapped its worst week in two months. where do we go the chart master says he is still a seller carter back to you. >> charter, i never have gotten carting. it's all good. so anyway, what we have here is it the s&p and sort of the happy thing is, it has lent itself to technicals beautifully we know on the way up has failed at the trend line over and over and over and on the way down it's done same thing in fact, down here it's done the same thing so it's not dcf and not peg ratio and it's simple only a chart sign that is the reality. we just broke down all right. let's go forward and let's see what the next one looks like and what we're going to try to do is drill down on this moment. we have this precise minor up

trend line we have broken if you look at this formation, we have all the elements of that minor head and shoulders top really ultimately i think we complete this and get down to the low of 3636, june 16, about 5, 6%. now, the question is in -- do we go low center there is a possibility of going lower a final chart and figure it out together this is an all data from the '09 low. if you will connect your financial crisis low with your covid low, we've lived this entire channel until we blew out through the top when the excesses of last year, and now we are simply at the middle point. do we get down into here do we get down into the middle or lower part of the bottom? i think we do. 3,300 is about where that comes into play and why not? >> how about the overshoot a guy i respect and he actually

talked about the 35th anniversary. '87 crash and a couple of deteammate points looking that could take you to 3,000, a 3020 on the s&p could that be an overshoot >> you know, absolutely. if you look at that last chart, just as we overshot through the top of the channel right here, you can overshoot to the downside but before we get to 32 or 3,000, i think 33, and then i have -- tell you something, very big clients talmid-to-low 2,000. >> wow thanks we will see you in a few minutes. let's trade this jeff, again, you made a face when we got to the key technical levels was there something that caught you? >> i'm always making faces half the time they don't mean anything. >> what happens if that's just his face >> exactly those levels are something we have been looking at, right? the minor upward trend line and

3,900, closed below. problematic. we are being so negative a little bit of sunshine here on a friday. >> please. >> and this is practical advice in dealing with real investment committees i chair one for non-profit we are talking about putting cash to work you are for more likely to regret putting cash to work when the market is up 20% versus down 20%. so keep that in mind of course the market can continue to drop i think it will. but it doesn't mean that putting money to work now is the wrong decision for the vast majority of investors watching the show. >> on average the markets move up 10% annually since the beginning of markets the truth is i'm negative for the next two months. i think that midterm elections are going to be a catalyst for the market to rally in the last two months of the year i think we could see of these lower levels that really test everyone's moral fiber. >> all right really quick, tim, you are saying they are going to rally you are forecasting gridlock that creates that rally?

>> gridlock in the last two months i think the next two months are going to be a little bit tense and we could see that 3,300 level on the s&p >> i go back to where positioning is and where you actually see sentiment now it's terrible. you look at consumer confidence. slightly better than expected. still well below the covid lows on university of michigan confidence i just think that the market is prepared on some level i think this move thats been seemingly almost in slow motion when you consider the things we have been assessing over the last 18 months i think you have to be patient as an investor this isn't going to happen overnight. you have been given enormous trading opportunities. you had nine or more plus or ninis 8 or 9% moves in the s&p this year. w i think we are, as jeff said, in a place there are stories to be brought out there, companies we will give in a little bit, also ones you can sleep on i could own google, apple here i choose not to be but i think there is a place

where a lot of investors want to know what they can start adding. >> that might be true in tech. a lot of those big tech companies, cloud, we're talking about software names down 50%, 80% from the highs are those the groups you are talking about all of a sudden they are not as expensive, they are a little bit more attractive >> we talked about this yesterday when he talked about adobe. the multiples are tough to justify. companies that had cyclicality and are hitting some headwinds, we haven't heard the pull back in cloud that's the one thing i'd be most worried about with microsoft and google who have a lot of exposure there google at 17, 18 times the peg ratio, one or less, that's a company that's priced pretty attractively and i think you can own it. our twist on the chart of the week and retail stocks positioned to overcome a down market first, new york's flagship apple

store, steve. >> no signs of any recession fears here on apple's big launch day. tee dee tails when "fast money" comes back ♪♪ ♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. ever wonder what everyone's doing on their phones? they're investing with merrill. think miss allen is texting for backup? no she's totally in charge. of her portfolio and daniel g. she's building a greener future and he's... running a pretend restaurant. and phil? phil has questions, but none of them are about his portfolio. digital tools so impressive,

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. and welcome back to "fast money. new iphone 14s failing to push

apple into positive territory. shares falling on today's in-store debut off more than 4% this week but lots of folks lined up to get the new phone. steve kovac was there when the doors opened in the apple store manhattan. got to ask you, what was the vibe in the store today and did you buy one? >> reporter: i didn't buy one today, frank but plenty of people are here and willing to buy one we have been watching the lines kind of ebb and flow all day yes, people are in line and kind of the chattering around here, even people walking by me are urias, why are people lining up for this thing around we headed towards a recession? but i have been talking to people in line and they are excited to buy it. they wanted to be here day one and they wanted to see tim cook. he was here when the doors opened at 8:00 a.m. >> wow all right. so, steve, which new iphone models are selling the best? i have an iphone negative one, man.

i got to upgrade. >> reporter: the data is showing that the pro model is the more expensive one, are selling out faster than the regular models and that's good news for apple because, one, this launch is a week earlier than normal, and two, those higher prices for the iphone boost the iphone revenue. cook reminded us last quarter we will see modest revenue growth for apple this quarter and to round out the fiscal year. this is probably why they chose to do it a week early to really end the quarter on a high note and meet the targets that cook said. >> do you have any preferences there are different ones, different cameras and stuff. do you have a personal preference >> reporter: i like the bigger one, that max size more screen, more battery life i'm out and about all the time as much battery life as i could get, it's worth to getting that extra chunky phone. >> thanks. steve kovac, appreciate it we got to trade it any real thoughts here that an iphone 14 was going to juice

this stock and the environment, the macro environment as the fedex's ye said? >> the good news is a lot of people felt they kept the esps flat there is strength the last week and apple going into the downdraft because the sense was that the data coming out on the 14 was decent. the multiple, we talk about the market, jeff talks about the e compression, apple trading probably eight or nine turns above the s&p on a forward basis. i don't think they can hold it. >> jeff, you need a new phone. >> i do. i was saying - >> amongst other things. >> i don't know if my purchase is enough to hold up that e component. i was looking at the chart it traded in that really tight upward channel from fall of 2020, retested the bottom end and now it's back down so technically i don't think the setup is particularly good and i am worried about the demand side of the things. it comes back to the fed, right? what does the fed need to see? weakness in the labor market

they have not seen that so people are still buying and credit card debt continues to rise maybe that's fueling the consumption. i don't know if it's sustainable. >> apple is the market, the market is apple. the way the market goes, apple is going to follow that. it's not enough to have a good news with apple and a bad news for the overall market apple is just going to go the same way as the overmarket. >> we are in a situation maybe pre-recessionary any other consumer stocks you are eying that could ride out the storm? >> i have to go with mcdonald's. what has been the major source of inflation food, energy if you want to feed a family -- i have a family of six i'm always out with my kids. i am guilty of going through the drive-through and for 18 bucks i'm feeding my family. >> guilty of what, man >> of not cooking a home cooked meal like our moms kooktd rkt i have been in the back seat of

your ukraine force baseball gear and mcdonald's bags. >> any other consumer picks? >> this was my boring is beautiful stock the other night. when we are talking about ex poke you're to the consumer we want defense and auto zone i think is that. if you go back the last number of recessions the outperform to the broad market, the spending is less discretionary. that's a big part of it. tim, you talk about the dollar as well. 90% of sales are u.s. based. it ins slates the company for some of the stuff going object globally so i think you can stick with this one. >> companies returning cash, a colgate, palmolive, you want to get capital back, that's where you should be. chasing staples. >> all right coming up on "fast money," a real fixer-upper, dropping 8% since monday our twist on the chart of the week next. later on "options action," profits in a down market how options can help you go long when everything else is falling short. you are watching "fast money" in

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welcome back to "fast money. it's friday. time for our chart of the week we are keeping it very lit l literal today. our chart of the week, weak with an a's since monday shares fallen close to 8%. i want to come to you, what do you think? is the housing trade still going on here or is this stock, well, headed for some downturns with possible recession and inflation? >> i like to point out home depot is resilient because it is the place you fix up your home the problem is the home equity

loan is a part of that as well the pro business is more cyclical i love home depot. trade is expensive i feel like the trade goes to home depot you can buy it lowerism think you will get it lower. this is another one of these stocks that on a forward basis 17 times, 18 times, not crazy, certainly a slight premium to the market i think you will get this closer to 250 and below that there is a couple other key levels. >> you have a bunch of kids. a lot of fixer-upper situations going on where are you at with this >> i agree with tim i hi the home equity is the side that people aren't looking at rates are going up across the board. i don't think this is where you want to be putting your money. i do agree request that level back to february 2020, it looks like that's the level. 20 240. >> the one surprising thing about this stock and made the argument with azo, it outperforms during recessions. you see the underperformance leading into that economic intraction so - >> where were rates during the other recessions

>> absolutely. that's part of it. but it tends to move before housing bottoms. i am not saying this is the time to buy. >> around the horn, tim, if not home depot, is there another name in the general pspace you like >> i talk about rh this is also one that i don't think you have to own here but a company that in nine times earnings given you plenty of warning they are going to be nonpromotional, have been able to hold on to a lot of march here, but tough environment. i don't need to own it tomorrow. >> name, no thesis >> dhi it's cheap a march of safety there. >> no touch? >> no touch? >> i don't want to be in this area i don't think the market has bottomed and these stocks are rate sensitive now. >> the ceo of home depot is coming up on "mad money" next hour i think cramer took a tour of a warehouse or something. >> final trade around the horn, traveling light without being in the environment, 8.5 dividend pay

yield and ult company with cash flow. >> tlt am. extend the maturity in the cash flow get the veyield and price appreciation going forward. >> the electric vehicle space. up 50% in the last three months. tesla up 30% fisker only up 13% that's the catch of trade. >> that's it for us on mad -- i'm saying "mad money," "fast money. don't go anywhere. "options action"s coming up. carter is getting his carting business going stay with us ♪♪ welcome to life in the new open web. where innovation keeps pace with imagination and the future arrives daily. viant is pioneering a new approach to media combining ai with human insight. creating new ways to reach customers and new standards of measurement, both on and offline. viant. built for the new open web.

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. it's friday. that means it's time for "options action. the markets losing 5% across the board, fourth losing week in five a comeback rally looks like a bear market bounce looking for shelter. we charted an under the radar bond port in the storm and continue our consumer conversation with the top of the hour looking for deals to snatch up now in walmart, uber and las vegas sands. i'm frank holland. joining me carter, mike, and special appearance b