i understand that, but -- >> we got to go. >> whether it's the right prescription now, i don't know >> jason, sorry for the slow start, but we got it in. good to have you on this morning. thanks >> thank you >> all right, folks, that does it for us today. we want to make sure you join us tomorrow and by the way, you've got "squawk on the street" coming up next they're going to carry you right there. see you later. ♪ thanks, becky. good monday morning, welcome to sq"squawk on the street," i'm cl quintanilla. cramer is at 1 market in san francisco. central bank meetings, including the fed, investor days, flash pmis, yields continue to climb, ten-year passes 3.5 and that's a fresh decade high. futures pointing to further losses following the worst week for stocks since june. >> treasury yields climbing,

ahead of the fed's moves this week ten year hit its highest level since 2011 and another bad weekend for crypto bitcoin tumbling more than 7% so far this month >> we begin with jim we mentioned investor days this week, jim, and that's sort of why you're in san francisco. >> yeah, look, i think that there are a lot of people trying to figure out when tech will stop going down. tech is really what's bleeding the worst. i think that tech is integral to a fed policy of actually frying to make one of our two assets go lower. i think the fed wants stocks worth less i think the fed wants our homes worth less i think the fed wants people to go back to work and the easiest way to make them go back to work is to make them need money and i think that's behind this >> wait. explain this to me you think what's behind this they're trying to make people lose money >> yeah. i actually believe at this point, they know that if they take rates up a lot, then you're

going to sell stocks, and you're going to buy treasuries. it's relentless. i think it can get to a level where it's silly, but we're just not at the silly level yet, david. i really do believe that i spent a lot of time thinking over the weekend, why did the markets go down every day? and i think a lot of it's because the fed doesn't care the fed just says, you know what we've got to make people hungrier, make people go back to work people haven't, and that's one of the reasons why we have ram p rampant inflation. >> the s&p lost last week, eighth time this year it has lost at least 3% in a week in the seven previous occasions, the following week was positive. >> four times. >> thank you you and i get the same research. >> pretty much thanks, jpmorgan but the average gain, jim, on those following weeks was about 4.5% i think someone pointed out largely fed weeks, though, which

have been definitely help. at least so far this year. i don't know your point about draining liquidity is a good one. and i noticed, for example, zillow today, august home sales down 0.3 that's the worst month on month in about a decade. so, there goes some housing value as well. >> look, i think that we're getting there. i mean, we got to get to the point where our house is worth less we got to get to the on it where our stock portfolio is worth less and we're getting there maybe in ten trading sessions. maybe september is the pain point. but when i listen to the guests this morning on "squawk box," nobody thinks they're going to stop here. i think they can stop raising rates when our homes go down in value, when our stock portfolios go down in value, and we have to go back to work, and carl, there are so many people that have not come back to work, and i still think people misunderstand, carl, how much covid has changed the equation it just doesn't come up enough i think jay powell is acutely aware that we got to get people

back to work simply because they just can't stay home anymore >> i want to make a quick clarification here, though you're talking about actually back to having a job as opposed to going back to the office. >> yes >> okay. >> having a job. >> i want to make sure because these days, back to work can mean getting back to the office, which is another topic i'm sure we'll hit on today. but you're talking about people who have left the workforce, getting them back into the workforce. >> yes i mean, david, where's their money coming from? i think they have had an unbelievable run in their portfolios i think everybody feels great about their house still. i was at home depot this week. there's no degradation people still want to spend a lot of money on their homes, but david, we have to accept the fact that people haven't come back to work, the rank and file, listen to phil lebeau this morning talking about problems in the auto business what stocks do i think are unaffected by this i think the -- unlike the autos, i don't think healthcare -- i

think healthcare's doing well. i think the baggnks don't mind t there's a lot of industrials where they're just short parts and last week, there were things that happened that i felt devastating. new corps, which had been this incredible engine, largest steel company, just saying, listen, flat out, we have less demand and then we have a lot of the semis saying, look, the nand and the basic building block saying, look, orders are down. and then, david, we have a whole other thing going on where it's like, you know, if you're on an assembly line, you haven't come back to work i don't know the psyche. i don't know the psyche. i'm desperate. i ask everybody out here, what is the psyche of a person who can just stay home and usually, i keep coming back and hearing, they have a lot of money. >> so, people who worked on assembly lines have a lot of s money? >> yes hourly workers have not come back >> you act -- david, i'm -- you are quizzical, and i don't blame

you. you're giving me pushback. but i think we'll hear it from the auto companies i'm seeing cruz today talk a lot of the major auto companies. people just haven't come back to work on the supply chain either. i think there are a lot of high-end semiconductor companies that simply can't produce what they have to produce i'm going to see nvidia this week i'm concerned about nvidia >> what's your concern about nvidia, jim? >> well, have you seen the way that bitcoin is trading? they still have this -- they're moving away. ethereum's new merger means that you do not need graphics cards that has been an unintended consequence for nvidia they make these great cards and those people have been the people who have been mining have been using them. you do not need their cards anymore to mine, and at the same time, they haven't been able to make the transition yet to being artificial intelligence, virtual reality, we're just not there yet. machine learning so, we got the high-tech stuff

not there yet until we see earnings, and we have the lower stuff being hurt by this ethereum transfer. david, i don't know how much you follow bitcoin, but bitcoin seems to be another thing that the fed is sick of >> yeah. we're going to talk a bit more about that >> you like that >> yeah. i like what? >> that the fed's sick of bitcoin. >> i don't know what the fed is sick of. >> just agree with me. >> i did read a lot, carl, this weekend about the merge, about the ethereum merge >> yes, yes. >> got a lot of play of course, the theme seemed to be, it's still not going to cure what's wrong with crypto, but it's obviously a good thing, certainly for energy use >> jim, to your larger point, the fed needs to drain more liquidity. clearly, 3,900 was pretty pivotal on friday. i think btig pointed out it's actually the level that's had the most volume over the last three years. but i assume now you're talking about revisiting june lows, right? >> i mean, we'll come near them.

>> 5.5% away >> for a lot of stocks look, if we got to get three breaks, got to get the chinese to get away from a covid policy that is unnecessary, they have to take the moderna. we have to have the ukrainians drive out the russians, and we have to have the fed saying, okay, we know that 4% on a two-year piece of paper is better than most stocks so people are going to sell their stocks, take them down, and at that point, we bottom. and maybe it means it's june but i do think we bottom i think that we -- if we get any one of those three, carl, we're going to regret that we sold, which is why you still have to stay the course. but you must be willing to take punishment you have to, carl. you can't just be out there and say, you know what buy, buy, buy. you have to say, punishment and then buy >> well, carl, jim, i mean, the cessation of the heostilities i ukraine, we'd be up on a lot of things very quickly. >> how can you sell? >> not that it's going to happen, unfortunately.

we can all hope it will, that there will be some unexpected reversal by putin, but nonetheless, it is a risk if you're short >> i think it really is. i listened to president biden last night on "60 minutes," incredible hawk on taiwan. wow. but i don't think he's going to let ukraine lose that would -- carl, that isn't kind of a seminal interview. we had a president who said, russia, look out, and we had a president who said, china, you're nothing this is very, very strong stuff. it tends to be walked back but i do think that if i were russia, i'd be thinking, you know what? maybe this was a big mistake maybe our leader is out of touch. an if we get that, carl, and we're short nvidia, it's a loser >> certainly cathy wood's been doubling down, buying quite a bit last week. you mentioned the "60 minutes" interview and scott covered a lot of ground, the decision on whether to run in '24, the defense of taiwan, saying the pandemic is over, his own mental acuity and then of course

inflation where the president seemed to want to emphasize month on month growth. take a listen. >> let's put this in perspective. inflation rate month to month is just an inch hardly at all. >> you're not arguing that 8.3 is good news >> no, i'm not saying it is good news, but it was 8.2 before. immigrat i mean, i can make it sound like, my god, all of a sudden, it went to 8.2%. >> it's the highest inflation, mr. president, in 40 years >> i got that. but guess where we are we're in a position where for the last several months, it hasn't spiked, it has just barely -- it's been basically even >> that was sort of the message coming out of the print, jim, basically a tenth on growth over the past two months, but we like to frame things in year on year. >> look, it's great that the president says that's true, that it's flattened out it's flattened out in a completely unsustainable, horrendous level for the average person i don't think the president is going to say that, because

that's his core constituency but david, when i heard that, what i said was, okay, pal's got a lot of work to do because 8% may level off. he can't just level it off he's got to bring it down. the pain speech. okay, the pain speech is still very much in my mind that's why i came up with that housing thesis and the stock thesis where's the pain going to come from your savings it's going to come from your house going lower. those people will have to come to work. if they come to work, then we're going to see wages lower that's how you break the cycle, david. how do you break the cycle what's your wrap on the cycle break? >> yeah, david >> yeah, god, i know, i need a rap on that. i don't have one but i never do, jim. i allow you to rap for all of us that said, you're not talking about wages actually coming down, are you? or simply a diminution of wage inflation? >> i'm talking about the idea that people come back to work, and they have -- other people come back to work and they can't get their job. i have dutch bros today, and

david, you probably aren't aware, but they are -- they have hundreds of stores, and they sell things. they're now 70% cold brewed. but they find it very hard to keep people. and the reason why they find it hard to people is because of job hop. david, we must wreck job hop you've got to be worried about your job if you're worried about your job, you're not going to be demanding a raise. if you're not going to demand a raise and other people come back to work, then wages go lower and powell wins. david, powell will win but in order to win, your stock portfolio goes lower and that's what's happening. you come in this morning, it's like, the question is, all right, how much are you going to be down? how much i mean, let's say green bay loses, how much? i mean, that kind of thing no i mean, there's just -- i just -- it doesn't matter. i picked that because it's sunday night football, david i don't know if you caught that. >> the jpmorgan note this morning basically point out that the industries, jim, where you have had the lowest layoffs, the

fewest hiring freezes, have been food services, healthcare, education, hospitality, and those are the industries most associated with delinquency so it's going to take a while to create the household balance sheet pressure that you're looking for. >> right i mean, go back to what the president said he is willing to accept a huge amount of inflation. the federal reserve is not the federal reserve says the 40-year, which is, you know, stable at this price, is just not right for america. so, david, i know that you don't want to conclude anything, but how about this let me posit this. when you have a 4% yield on the two-year, is that better than the 4% you could get from a stock? >> yes >> yes yes? >> what do you mean, a 4% dividend yield from a stock? sure >> why

>> because the stock can go down >> darn it all you're good. >> yeah, i'm good. yeah, as i like to always say, carl, i have a very keen sense for the obvious, having worked all these years in this industry >> it paid off >> as a reporter every so often, it pays off. >> congratulations >> verizon's got a 6.5% yield, jim. you going to boyuy the stock >> verizon, hands down >> i got it. hands down >> hans wesberg. that's a stock joke. >> nothing gets by you you're amazing >> he's from philadelphia. >> yes, he is. >> we do have the uk close today as well as japan britain is saying a final good-bye to queen elizabeth ii steve is on the ground in london with the latest. good morning, steve. >> good morning to you, carl quite extraordinary events here in london and later on this afternoon, in windsor.

we are about two-thirds of the way through a day of the state funeral. we started off this morning where we saw the queen's coffin, which had been lying in state for four days, move from westminster hall in the palace of westminster behind me, move just a few hundred yards, 10:44 a.m. this morning, to westminster abbey, where the state funeral was conducted by the archbishop of canterbry. sermons included one from liz truss. that lasted around 55 minutes. thereafter, we saw this extraordinary sight of the queen's coffin being carried on the estate gun carriage pulled along by 142 naval officers all the way through white hall, up the mall, past buckingham palace and up to constitution hill. it's an enormous procession, commemoration of the queen's 70 years reigning in the united kingdom. the crowds in london were absolutely enormous, tens if not

hundreds of thousands of people. tens of thousands more remain in windsor, waiting for the arrival of the state hearse from which the queen's coffin was transferred earlier on today as well we understand this has become a global event and there are early estimates that around 4 billion people worldwide could have witnessed the queen's funeral so far today. at the moment, as i speak, the queen's coffin is being carried in the state hearse to windsor, which is approximately 21 miles west of where we are here in central london i say we're around two-thirds of the way through proceedings, because we have had the state uri funeral and what we're going to see next is another procession in windsor, where the king, plus the prince of wales, plus the duke of sussex, of course, prince harry, and other senior members of the royal family will follow the queen's coffin up the long walk to westminster castle and thereafter, there will be another service, a committee

service and a little bit later on, after that committal service n st. george's chapel, we will see a private family service t funeral of her majesty, of course, who's been our queen for 70 years well, that's it for now from here in london we'll be back after a very short break on "squawk on the street." - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs)

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other crypto cucurrencies also under pressure ahead of the fed rate hike decision i think 18,387 was the number people watched and we're starting to associate bitcoin with just a risk asset, right? as opposed to a payment mechanism or an inflation hedge. >> i mean, look, i think what happened is there's a lot of companies who said, by this point, we would all be trading boycott. we would all be trading things with bitcoin the only companies that have really defended bitcoin, the ones that continue to defend it, no one's using it that i know of, but the ads never stop this turned out, to me, to be 2000, 1999-2000. remember how in the march-april period of 2000, the bulls on the nasdaq kept coming in and trying to keep it up and then ultimately, they were just smashed? i mean, i don't know there are a couple people, david, who cannot let this thing come down. it is their life's work. they're dedicated. it's almost religious.

>> where are we, though? where are we, then are we in march-april or past that already that's an important distinction. >> oh, no, they're going to try again. >> i remember that time period well i mean, the nasdaq, for people, at the time, at least, peaked in march. i think march 10 of 2000, something like that. >> march 15. >> and to your point, then we kind of -- we came back down but then there was a bit of a rally, and then we got crushed. >> right this is april 14-17. this is where the rubber hits the road you have people, once again, saying, you know what? this is a great asset, and then you have other people saying, we can't let this down. we can't -- last week, i said there were people trying to manipulate this so it holds. well, that was probably right. by the way, here's something interesting. take two, all right? now, someone stole the code for, you know, for grand theft auto vi and there's talk about r ransomware there's the only place people

are saying, i'm going to use it for ransomware i can't think of anyone else who uses it in common currency except for the kidnappers. >> yeah, no, it's -- in fact, there's an ak out, rock star games, which is take two, we're going to get into this we'll take a look at the stock experienced an unauthorized third party illegally accessed and downloaded confidential information from its systems, including early development footage. current rock star games not affected they've taken steps to isolate and contain the incident and they're going to keep working on the game but yeah, take-two is down on that, jim. >> well, we know that the fed hates bitcoin. i know that firsthand. they hate bitcoin. they despise it. look out >> strong word, despise, jim we'll see, maybe he'll get asked about it on wednesday. still to come this morning, a cross-country edition of

cramer's mad dash. calls to get to. another upgrade of netflix today, upgrades of the home builders, including one double upgrade and more cuts on adobe we're back in a moment

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dash as we say cross-country and then we'll get to an opening bell as we start to -- a week on not a good note, at least if you're long. auto zone. >> okay, so, david, you've asked me, when we can stop, what would cause the market to bottom, which look at auto zone. auto zone reports a fantastic number, sales are up six they bought back $4 billion worth of stock what are they? they're a do-it-yourself auto company. they make it so you can keep your car longer because new cars cost so much this is a paradigm stock worth owning if you believe that the fed's not done and so, it's kind of a fed stock, so to speak, and i like it i like it a lot. >> you like it a lot okay >> yeah. i like it a lot. i like it. it's good. it's not bitcoin i'm not talking about bitcoin.

>> there is the opening bell and the cnbc realtime exchange, at the big board, it's ralph lauren, celebrating its 25th listing anniversary at the nasdaq bsc, a provider of repair services for land, sea, and air transportation there's ralph at the balcony, jim. they do lift their fiscal 23 guide and their three-year outlook for revenue goes to the mid to high single digit investor days actually have been pretty good this year for some consumer names, starbucks, levi's, just a couple examples of that. >> again, there's this great anomaly. the fed wants rates lower. the individual companies are doing very well with the exception of some techs. they are doing remarkable things stock sells at ten times earnings, but you know what, carl people will not care until the tightening is done they'll just watch the thing go

lower, and you'll say to yourself, when can i buy it? the answer is, you can't buy it until the fed is done. but boy, are they doing well i think that's a great company >> until the fed is done or do you think people start buying when the pace of height -- tightening slows >> no, i think that if the fed did what's prudent, which is say, you know what we have just put through three bang-up rate increases, now we got to see what happens. then you buy ralph lauren, because ralph lauren is doing incredibly well, ten times earnings that's not sustainable it's not sustainable to have a terrific company at ten times earnings that is doing everything right with a good balance sheet. it's just not sustainable. so, carl, add ralph lauren to the list of a company you want to buy after the fed's spoken. >> it's kind of funny to sit here, look at the graph, and then look up and see him see ralph lauren right there while we're looking here that's a first >> he's an icon.

i mean, you think about the brand, what started in '69 or something like that. surviving after every fashion cycle over the decades i mean, it is kind of incredible, jim. >> they have a fantastic outfit in china i think of all the ceos that have come and gone in this company, this man is really terrific now, david, you're going to absolutely just love this. i know you are >> tell me >> he has adopted the metaverse. so if you go into the metaverse that mark zuckerberg has, you can go into a ralph lauren store and you can order and take a look at how you feel now, other -- he's an early adopter, david, an early adopter to the metaverse >> i didn't know that. >> yeah. >> i didn't know that. >> i try to stay abreast of things >> can you try on clothes in the metaverse? >> exactly >> see how they feel >> yes yes, the answer is, well, i don't know -- like, how you feel is somewhat subjective but i do think that if you want to go and you want to try on --

>> patty cake patty cake >> you want to try on 34 jeans, that is the place to do it >> got it. okay as we watch you and zuckerberg playing patty cake again >> well, yeah, his stock is going down 50 points as we play patty cake >> although, today, one of the rare names that's in the green >> up today? wait a second. >> up today, up today. meta is up about 0.5%. >> how long can -- it's up today? >> so far. so far >> off 146, but yeah >> early >> yeah, not exactly -- down 56% from year as you see in the upper right corner >> they call them the ravens you didn't get that at all, the ravens >> the ravens? i got it i think i got it i'm not up to speed on all the scores >> it was a good weekend >> lot of upsets >> my jets had a comeback, i

think. >> it was amazing. that was amazing >> some stats, like, since 2016, there was -- has not been a less expected -- >> yeah, amazonnext gen stat was their percentage of winning, jim, was the lowest in the history of next gen stats. >> well, i think why don't we talking about amazon for a second there's a note this morning that says before you decide that fedex is how -- why you should sell amazon, remember, fedex doesn't do any work with amazon, and both sides are proud of that, by the way and i think one of the things i think we have to think about is, amazon could be bottoming. and i say that because amazon web services, doing great, they're hiring amazon retail is pretty good amazon advertising, david, is incredibly strong. i think that this is a pandemic stock that is going to pass itself in the nonpandemic. >> interesting it's funny you mention advertising, because that also seems to be at least a bit of a catalyst behind netflix shares

i think it was mark on friday. oppenheimer upgrade today. some analysts, at least, jim, seem to be getting positive on the prospects for the ad tier at netflix. oppenheimer writing today, for example, and this is the idea, there's a larger opportunity to re-engage churn subscribers among 15% of u.s. churn subs, meaning those who have turned off, 43% would resubscribe at a lower price. so, this idea that you can, a, reduce churn, get back subscribers who actually already left the service in part because of price, and then have a robust advertising offering seems to at least be bringing some analysts back into the buyfold, so to speak, for netflix shares of which are up about 1% right now. >> but david, where's the read-through to disney plus? i mean, disney's stock, again, i think it's disney's balance sheet. i think it's without a dividend. i think it's a pitiful, helpful giant. there just isn't enough to make

you want to buy it, because people are concerned about what would happen in a downturn we're having a downturn. my trust owns it i feel a bit like mickey and minnie owning it they were not geniuses, by the way, david, and i say to myself, bob chapek has work to do. he has work to do still, which is incredible, because he's been working. >> wells today says, and i'm quoting here, media sentiment about as weak as we've seen it, streaming bad, linear bad, advertising bad. folks may own some disney where sentiment's gotten okay. own fox, maybe, on some cash, and to david's point, they are, quote, sniffing around netflix as the avon strategy gathers some strength, but no one wants to step in until subs improve on the back of a as longer slate. >> yeah. you know, and when it comes to disney, you're going to have the ad tier introduced in december and it's going to be margin neutral at least, potentially margin accretive, jim. so, you know, we'll see what the numbers end up looking like there. i would note, of course,

paramount shares are up. you had bob tell us on friday that the ad market doesn't look nearly as bad as seems to be reflected in these stock prices or sentiment out there but jim, you know, we'll see obviously, disney, below a $200 billion market value right now but still about $90 billion above netflix. it's not that long ago that i can recall when netflix had a market value that exceeded disney's by quite a bit. >> i think that one of the things that people have to recognize is that they don't know things. i don't know if bob chapek knows anything about fantasy i don't know if he knows the 50 million people who rely on espn fantasy. i don't know if he knows how important it is for the fourth quarter. i don't know how important it is -- does he know about gambling their best hope -- they should just go merge with draft kings or buy it. >> well, they're not going to do that you know that. but he did -- i mean, he did talk a lot about his thoughts for espn, shared more than he has so far and there's going to be a link

out to a site where they can make it frictionless i think they fully understand the opportunities, so that's why they're keeping espn, jim. >> david, if they fully understand it, the football season has started already it started we're on game three. if you really understand it, you do it during preseason what do you wait now you can't introduce it in the middle of the football season. >> i think these things take time to develop, and you're talking about a lot of different parties, third parties you got the leagues to deal with you've got the -- they're not going to become a betting site, disney, so you've got to deal with outside parties those things take time, jim. >> oh, well, they got a lot of time on their hands, right they got time to go to 90. they got time to go to 87. how about fixing the balance sheet, david what can they do to fix the balance sheet? got any ideas there? >> yeah, just keep generating cash flow and paying down debt that's what you do to fix the balance sheet. >> how are they doing that >> all right >> all right >> they're doing all right >> fine?

>> yeah. it's fine. >> david, i know they don't wan to buy my theme park >> nobody's talking about a threat >> they have to make theme parks bigger and they have to understand the mind of the gambler. the mind and they don't nor do they understand fantasy, and the hold that fantasy has on our country. carl, fantasy, we had people in four, five leagues, easily pay for a little more feed and for gambling not having to go to draft kings from the espn site carl, why don't they realize they have a gold mine? do you know that bob eiger, in 2009, i told him this. it was kind of like carrie in the gymnasium scene. >> ouch. i think i'm more on david's side chapek last week seemed to indicate that the younger disney user is ready to bet, even if it's on a third party, and certainly ready to watch more adult content on a disney platform, hence the hulu strategy >> then why is it where it is? why is it where it is?

because it's -- >> asked and answered. asked and answered >> well, i just think that when i look at cable, no, i don't look at cable anymore. because i have to protect my eyesight >> you realize what we're on right now? just making sure >> i don't know. >> what's paid your salary for all these years? >> no, look, i think these stocks are cheap i just think they need to raise on debt. raison d'etre. any comments on our parent company since you're ready to throw around a lot of criticism? >> they generate a huge amount of cash. they pay a great yield stop it. you big meanie listen to me >> it could have been a lot worse. >> they do, jim. it generates a huge amount of cash >> i put it on the market because it's too cheap

how about the value? no stop laughing at me. >> guys, let's always -- that's painful. sorry, yeah. okay everybody out there, this is the only stock we're allowed to own. >> that's right. that's right >> some of us do >> let me get you on some home builders because they are leading today. upgrades of horton, toll, kbh, is that deserved in this rate environment? >> there are some stocks that seem absurd. kbh sells at 2.5 times next year's earnings. they do report this week i think the quarter's going to be okay. this is a bet that the fed is only going to do one more beyond this one and mortgage rates are not going to go to zseven, eight i like this call i would like it even more if the companies were in there buying back stock and saying, listen, our stocks are low

that's not really happened yet, but i like this call, if only because if you want to know about what's just been obliterated, obliterated, carl, it's the home builders they're just -- they're unbelievable they've caught fire. there's no fire department >> yeah. guys, wanted to come back to take >> two we talked about it earlier in the show another hack another seemingly, you know, damaging, potentially damaging hack they admitted as well in an 8-k that's filed a bit ago, rock star games recently experienced what they call a network intrusion in which an unauthorized third party illegally accessed and downloaded confidential information from its seasons, including early development footage for the next "grand theft auto." current rock star games, thekz, are unaffected and they are isolating and containing the incident may be related to that uber hack unclear exactly. but seems to be some young hacker out there who's doing

pretty well. by the way, on that note, i would move on to a company called nobefor, actually in the business of trying to get people who are employees to be aware of phishing, to be aware of security and get trained on that because 85% of all these intrusions occurs as a result of human error. somebody clicks on something they shouldn't i mentioned this company because it's got a bid from vista. the large private equity firm run by robert smith, of course, it's focused on software as a service, enterprise software companies. it has largely, for a lot of its history and certainly recently, been focused on buying companies that are in the private market, so, you're buying a private company, but lately, vista has been focused on the public markets, and that may be an important point for people to keep in mind this is not a large company but it is a sign, perhaps, that vista itself sees value in the public markets that is better or

at least cheaper than going after private market companies at this point. 97% of all enterprise software companies are private, so when you're focused on that as a firm that buys them, you're tending towards the private markets, but jim, i notice, you know, of late, we've been talking about vista and the public markets in this case, they're offering seesaw $24 a share for what they don't already own, 39% premium over the recent stock price. they have a significant holding here there are some others as well. kkr is an owner, but some have been selling we'll see what the company actually chooses to do here, founder-led company. and again, you know, the annual recurring revenues are what they focus on at vista. they like it they like the potential multiples that they may be able to get on these companies as long-term investors, jim, in the public markets, and i think that's an important thing -- distinction, because it could be pointing to signs of value maybe not now, but soon.

>> what a great -- it's a great point. look, i think that we're close to -- you have to go through these hikes. but there's so many stocks that are worth a lot more than they're selling for that if you can take the pain -- again, you got to take the pain but david, if private equity were to come in, and we know they have all sorts of money, what that says is really smart people don't care about the short-term and david, it also may mean that there's hope for, say, the goldman-sachs's, where there's some activity that they can rely on >> yes there is a little bit of activity certainly not in the go public area, carl as we know, we're at an historic low for ipo issuance >> 238 days without a tech ipo above $50 million as of today. that's longer than the great financial crisis, and it's longer than the dot com bust,

said in the ft today is that amazing? >> that is incredible. that does say, again, about the sentiment. people want -- i know there are a lot of companies that want to come public. i know there are a lot of companies who want to merge, but david, so many people are worried about antitrust that they don't put deals out there that would make so much sense. but at the bottom, don't some companies just have to say, we have to chance it with the ftc, with justice >> yes, and i think some will, and some are making those decisions, but you combine the regulatory framework right now and the concern about whether your deal may get blocked or challenged with negotiating a price on a market like this, and those are two things that make things very difficult in terms of what your buyer expects in value, and what your seller is willing to partwith. they're always uncertain, but right now, even more so and reflected in the market, carl. >> don't you want to buy here? >> you got a small bounce at the open >> you want to buy >> the dow opened down 263 let's get to bob pisani. >> the allow print was right at

the open the market's really worried that the fedex announcement is going to be the new normal for earnings i'm doubtful about that. take a look at the sectors, boupsing a bit today last week, healthcare held up pretty well, energy held up. guess what's down today? energy and healthcare. tech was really poor, industrials were poor, transports were poor, they're down slightly to flattish, so a reversal of the trend last week. in terms of the movers, fedex was at a two-year low on friday. that's bouncing a little bit some of the travel stocks like carnival have been up, royal caribbean is up, you go from 4.1% on a 30-year to 6.1%, that's about a thousand dollars a month on a 750,000 to $800,000 mortgage that is going to reduce home prices people are going to bid lower because they still want to get that house and that's how you do it bid lower. in terms of fedex, over the

weekend, is this the new normal? the big warnings i'm a little doubtful. they were very specific in what they said. they said, weakness in asia and service challenges in europe and remember, we had all these conferences i kept talking about in the last two weeks, i didn't hear any of this immense glommyness we had banking conferences, toll brothers was okay. i didn't hear this mass gloominess so i'm a little skeptical that we have to cut earnings for the quarter everybody was quoting michael. this was the quote of the weekend everyone's passing around for the s&p, nobody knows what to do. he said, nibble at 3,600, bite at 3,300, gorge at 3,000 we're at 3,850 now that's a long way down but you can see why. people think all of a sudden we have to reset the expectations we had this in may and june, remember everyone was reducing the numbers. here's where we are now. the four quarters going forward are all positive and a real earnings recession, all this goes negative down anywhere from

a little bit to 25%. they reduce them, the last quarter, they're still positive, maybe they have to go down a little bit more here, but so far, they are not cutting the estimates into negative territory. what has gotten cut is technology that's why the s&p has had such a hard time. just look at the s&p tech sector q3, we're up 5.8% and now we're down q4, up 8.6%, now at 1.4% that's going to go negative. guarantee you. so that's where the problem with the s&p is they are cutting the numbers in the technology sector and everybody says, well, are we going to challenge the new lows? if you look at the global market, we essentially are at new lows the s&p is doing a little bit better it's up 6% off the lows we hit on june 16th china's doing a little bit better but look around the rest of the world. we're essentially there, carl. europe, japan, korea, they're only about 1% off of 52-week lows so the important thing here is earnings expectations, still expected to come down. but not dramatically carl, back to you. >> bob, thank you for that, bob

pisani dow shaving its losses under 100 points as we go to break watch bonds today. two-year got to 396. ten-year gets almost to 352. both of those, of course, multi-year highs german boonz, by the way, on a ten hch year basis, break above the june high. even got oil off the lows to 83.50. back in a moment

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bros what elts? >> we have intuit, small/medium size business. and the cruz, the gm self-drive. we have to find out, because tech represents value. i just don't know how low value

is going to go. >> jim, it's a big week. good to have you out there we'll talk crm as we work through the next few days. >> it's fantastic. thank you. >> we'll see you still to come this morning, marriott's tony capuano on inflation, travel and returning to the office as the company opens its new headquarters today. dow down 77 and the s&p holding 3865

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the street." home builder sentiment in september fell three points. anything below 50 is negative. and that is the ninth straight month of declines and the lowest level since 2014 with the exception of a very brief drop and then rebound at the start of the pandemic now, sentiment was at 83 in january when interest rates were half of what they are now. that's what the builders are blaming. the average on the 30-year fixed fell in august and crossed back over 6% in the last two weeks, making an already pricey housing

market even less affordable. one in five builders reported dropping prices in september now, if the index of three components, current sales conditions dropped sales expectations in the next six months fell one point to 46 and buyer traffic fell on a three-month moving average, sentiment fell the most in the south and west where home building is usually most active. keybank upgraded three builders, hor horton, lennar and pulte as they are all three underperforming the s&p. >> thank you good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla and morgan brennan making her day back after maternity leave. >> glad to be back what did i miss? >> not too much. we missed a lot of coverage from

you. i'm looking forward to that as well >> oh, yes oh, yes. i did not come emptyhanded before i get to that, i want to give a little shout out to my family, given it is day one back from maternity leave i think we have pictures here. max is almost 4 months old he joins his sister who is 6, in first grade, and nico, who's 2 i love the matching pajamas. all of my. pictures on tv are matching pajamas. everybody is doing well. family's good. it's even better now to be back here >> yes, it's wonderful we look forward to some resumption of defense and space coverage, i hope, maybe. >> yes, you can. as i mentioned, i might have been busy coming into the weekend, i went to boseman, montana, caught up for a tv exclusive will tech billionaire and astronaut jared isaacman who is going back to space with spacex for an insider look at fighter jet training for this

newer crew, the all-civilian mission set to kick off, polaris dawn it's called got up close and personal with his own personal mig 29 fighter jet, which is the only operational one in the u.s we've got some of those sound bytes right here as well. >> reporter: this is the mig-29? >> it is. >> reporter: the only one in the u.s. >> it is. >> reporter: how did you get your hands on this >> super lucky so, paul allen, who assembled an incredible aircraft collection, imported this aircraft, restored it and it's probably the nicest mig-29 in the world. >> 38,000 pounds of thrust, fourth generation fighter jet, the soviet version basically an equivalent to f-15 or 16. we have an insider look at training for future astronauts we'll talk about the space economy and the broader economy, since isaacman is also the ceo and founder of shift for the payment processing company a bit later in the hour as well. >> the space business has

evolved. what i've missed is your take on defense sales to ukraine and what some of these missile systems, how important they are, how deserved they are. and then the crosscurrent of china. you have the chinese government sanctioning the heads of companies like raytheon. >> which is an unusual step to see individuals being sanctioned i think it's seen as largely symbolic you talk about a raytheon or a boeing, it's boeing defense that was sanctioned, the ceo there. these are companies with, you know, massive commercial portfolios that sell into china, too. you have to wonder what kind of commentary comes out of upcoming earnings around that and comments on taiwan from president biden. there's a lot to watch of course, we'll see if it affects markets. in the meantime, we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers we're watching this morning. autozone reporting earnings this morning, posted better than expected profit and revenue. the car parts retailer also

seeing same store sales rising 6.2% compared to a year ago. shares are up 1% plus, take two shares,ed video game maker addressing the report that a hacker er leaked a game and bitcoin is down sending shares of coinbase it's down more than 70% year-to-date >> meantime, stocks are lower today after the s&p and nasdaq saw their worst week since june. president biden not worried. morgan mentioned the interview on "60 minutes" where he talked about inflation month-on-month may not be as bad as it seems. >> let's put this in perspective. inflation month-on-month was up an inch, hardly at all. >> you're not arguing 8.3 is good news. >> no, not at all.

but it was 8.2 before. i can make it sound like all of a sudden, my god, it went to 8.2% >> it's the highest inflation rate, mr. president, in 40 years. >> i got that. but guess where we are, we're in a position for the last several months it hasn't spiked. it has just barely -- it's been basically even >> joining us with market outlook today, all springs global analyst, and phil at post 9. the president's point is the peak inflation narrative has traction would you agree? >> we would agree with that. the only problem, carl, is the fed's target is 2. when you have an 8 handle on inflation, fed put doesn't exist. a lot of people got teased into in the last cycle. if things got bad enough, the fed would pivot. last week was a microcosm of the entire year where investors were like, okay, maybe they don't

have to slam on the brakes and we get at hot core number that puts into place a terminal rate problem. we don't know where the fed is going to stop and that's why we're positioning defensively in portfolios. >> the conversation last week changed on that terminal rate. now we're hearing from some of your competitors on the street, 3.25, maybe 4.5. >> the good news is the market is priced to get to about 4.50 it went up by about 40 basis points last week that was a big jolt. that's why the s&p fell by 5%. the bad news for equity investors is everything you're taught, strong labor markets, good consumer, that is inflationary we're in this weird situation of actually rooting for the economy to slow down, to then make inflation come a lot closer to the fed's target carl, that's not happening any time soon. >> phil says we don't know exactly where the terminal rate will be. we don't know how long once we get there we'll stay there, which may be something else concerning markets i'm just wondering where are you looking in this market to

potentially find something that's worth investing in right now? >> well, it's a good point and it is really tough out there now. inflation is a real thing. i'm sitting in the midwest we certainly feel it here. but i think it is time for investors to start look around the corner we priced in a lot of bad news last week. i think what we'll see next week is what the market anticipates -- sorry, this week, 75 basis points. and then we will see what happens next it's likely that we'll start to see other things earnings estimates start to come down like ppi showing us the economy is slowing, inflation is starting to come off if those things happen, we could start to see the market price in something else but right now, i think the market's done the appropriate thing and priced in a tighter fed and one with interest rates going to above 4 >> phil, do you dip your toe into equities?

do you look at other assets given the fact we have yields at multidecade highs? >> in a 60/40 portfolio, every day i wake up and try to be a multi-asset index. we have 8% underweight however, credit, investment grade credit held up remarkably well last week day of, last time we were on the show we talked about cash. cash has gotten even better. there are places to sit and wait for the kind of inflation story to pan out morgan, not quite yet in equities because that margin story, that earnings story has yet to play out but we would not throw in the towel on diversification. it's the worst year ever for fixed income that helps sentiment when there are places to play defense. >> right now is a decent time to look at fixed income as an opportunity? clearly a 4% on the two-year, which is where we're close to, has got to be drawing in some investors. >> the yield curve is so inverted that in the front end of the curve, where you don't have to take that much interest

rate risk, you can find really nice opportunity for carry or yield. obviously, cash is the ultimate safe haven but also in short duration, short maturity, investment stuff makes sense. >> some people are pointing to the 12-month treasury minus the one-year inflation expectation i mean, real yields are high some would argue ridiculously high, at least at the short end. >> they are. and i don't think that bonds are an unattractive place to be. however, i wouldn't be selling equity for it. if you do, you have to be right twice. you have to sell right, which it might be a little too late, but then have you to be right coming back to the market and as you know, the market generally prices in positive before we get thepositive data and the positive news. so, i wouldn't exit equity for that i also do think there are companies out there that will wade through this volatile period in a pretty effective

way. if you look at where margins are and where earnings are, overall, i do think they are too high, but there are companies set up to really outperform here. in some cases i think we have some coiled springs waiting to pop, but it's going to take a more stable environment than we have right now >> maybe that explains the ton from conferences, which it wasn't as bad as some thought might be ann, phil, we'll see what happens tomorrow and wednesday. as we take a break, look at the road map red extrying to rebound from last week. >> we'll speak with the ceo of marriott and talk about the state of travel and the return to office. as the company opens its new headquarters later today and we've got a lot more from my interview with tech billionaire jared isaacman, including how he's preparing for his next space mission

>> it's a lot of planning that goes into a mission. but we want to use as much time leading up to it for training as possible using fighter aircraft is a great analog that's why nasa does it with dye environment so forces you to do that extra level of training cae ers beusthe'no reset button like there is in the similarity. . go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable, emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson.

- oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. news from the future: you're going to live through that about 10 more times! (laughs) no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - [narrator] yieldstreet: private market investing.

britain today is saying a

final good-bye to queen elizabeth ii steve sedgwick is in london with the latest >> reporter: good morning to you. britain and the world, i would suggest that, because apparently this is the world's largest television event potentially a worldwide audience, believe it or not, up to 4 billion team have tuned in to see what has been the most incredible day here in london. events have now moved on to win windsor. i'll explain about that in a few moments' time. we've already today seen three processions and a service, the state funeral of her majesty, queen elizabeth ii, who of course reigned for 70 years. a huge break with the past now, with the queen's passing this is a woman who met many, many u.s. presidents, 13 in total, including herbert hoover and every u.s. president during her reign, apart from lyndon johnson. the proceedings started very early on this morning. the gates and the doors to

westminster abbey opened at 8:00 a.m. and the huge set of mourners started walking in at that time. 2,000 in total, including, of course, u.s. president joe biden and his wife, dr. jill biden as well, joined by dignitaries from around the world, up to 800 heads of state and dignitaries were invited, including japanese emperor, the king of sweden and macron, several addresses, one from british prime minister, liz truss, who was the woman who got the royal assent for becoming prime minister just two days before the queen passed a week or so ago. i say events have moved on now from london. there was a huge procession out of westminster abbey, up the mile, the constitutional hill from there and then onto we wllington arch,

and the queen was transferred in her coffin with the royal standard on it in the hearse and went 21 miles to windsor windsor castle, one of the favorite places of the queen, much more her home than perhaps buckingham palace ever was i'm looking at live pictures of another procession, the third of the day with the state hearse being flanked by members of the guard's regiments. i can see members of the royal air force and royal navy flanking her in what's called the long walk, which is a long processional route along up to windsor castle, where we're going to see the final proceedings of the day just briefly, there there will be a committal service in 30 minutes' time and later on this evening there will be a final family private funeral where the queen will be buried it's been a momentous day here in united kingdom. back to you, carl. >> just remarkable, steve. as you say, the world truly celebrating her life that's our steve sedgwick in

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welcome back supply chain stocks trying to recover from friday. the ishares transport down double digits over the past month of trading but up 1.5% right now. the group led lower following fe fedex. one analyst got the message before the street. downgrading the stock two weeks ago. citi's christian wetherby joins us now let's talk about fedex is this company-specific, a canary in the coal mine for broader transports how do you look at it? >> we look at it that fedex is good at picking up these types of trends early relative to some of the other names we cover and some of the other industrials in the market we don't think the magnitude necessarily reflects what's going on in the market

i think the trends can be very much macro and could be read across to other companies. but i think the magnitude of the miss is probably something that's a little unique to fedex. >> given the fact we saw u.p.s. trade lower in sympathy on friday, and we do tend so see these two stocks move together in general when there's news for one of them, do you expect similar read-through to u.p.s. when we get earnings >> i think u.p.s. is a bit more resilient. i think they have more visibility into the network and has done a better job managing the cost side of the equation. they've been able to manipulate the network when they've seen volume fluctuations better than what we've seen from fedex we actually think they'll deliver numbers in line with people's expectations. we did get an opportunity to talk to the company right after the fedex preannouncement. they still were fairly comfortable with where -- with what they've told us about guidance remember, they just had a sell side event the week before fedex preannounced and reiterated all

of their back half guidance. our expectation is the ability to execute through the challenging periods is going to be highlighted in the next couple quarters of earnings results. >> chris, you know, fedex, back to that for a moment, had an activist, three new board members, a new ceo are they taking the steps you think they need to address some of these execution issues and what many say is a bloated cost structure? >> we're hopeful but we need to see more proof that it's actually happening obviously, this first -- you know, this first foray under the new ceo has been a little challenging in terms of the preannouncement and withdrawal of the guidance. we think there is some pressure building on management to begin to execute a little more effectively. they did outline back in june a number of cost actions they could take to pull forward to sort of help with that bloat in the cost structure you reference. i think it's going to take a little bit of time here. i'm not sure how much time they have, but i think it's going to take them more time. we would expect more in the second half of their fiscal

year, which is six to nine months out from where we are right now before we see the benefits of some of those actions they're taking >> okay. thank you for joining us today coming up after the break, we'll turn back to the market action the ten-year touching its highest level in more than a decade still sick circulating around 3.50 throughout hispanic heritage month we're celebrating our cnbc contributors here is javier gutierrez >> one thing i definitely have always talked about is the opportunity to do for others that's what i try to share with so many, especially young latinos and latinas. in their life and their careers, they can really make an impact and make a change. not only that, but they have that responsibility to do that, to use their voice, to use their platform it can happen in so many different ways you'll end up, you know, potentially end up running a

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the fed is in focus ahead of the big fmoc meeting joining us is former fed governor, larry meyer. appreciate the time. good to see you again. >> good to see you thanks for having me on ahead of such an anticipated meeting. >> it's interesting. a lot of commentary over the weekend. i know goldman thinks the median dot will start to approach 4.50. their general point is fmoc participants are not going to want to forecast any cuts after begging the bond market to stick with them back in august what do you think? >> well, we've been at 4.50 as a terminal rate for some time.

however, we do think that in 2024, 2025 there will be cuts because we're going to grow -- the unemployment rate will rise quite a bit. there's a danger of falling into a full recession. >> what's your sense of the progress they've made so far financial conditions are maybe even tighter right now than they were back in june. we just got some pretty bearish housing data we know what the stock market's done i mean, it's -- we continue to see robustemployment and jobless claims that are suppressed >> yes, that's true. the labor market stands out. if you look at growth, it slowed down as you would expect a low trend will see rising unemployment rate. we have this divergence for the labor market, which is a little hard to explain, but certainly i believe the labor market will adjust to growth and slow down into next year >> so, larry, it's morgan. >> go ahead. >> so, then what matters more to

the fed now, is it the inflation data, which we know is lagging, especially when you're talking about things like housing data and cpi numbers and cpe and whatnot, or is it the labor market and the readings we're getting there? >> it's all about inflation, whether it's wages or prices that's the priority. unacceptable 40-year high, that's all that matters right now. and if the economy slips into growth recession, fine if that's what it takes, a mild recession if necessary, whatever it takes, got to get that down to 2%. >> what point then, if we are looking at more recession, maybe the hard narrative landing as opposed to soft landing, when do the doves start speaking out >> at this point i wouldn't see a hard landing a mild recession is an unemployment rate maybe approaching 5% from 3.7% today a hard landing would be more

like 6% or 7%. now, i don't see a hard landing. i don't think many do. but it's always a risk now, as we go along, the notion of the dual mandate and the view within the fed that you need to go slower or you need to stop, that will be more of an issue. you could have the sense, we're quite aways from that. we haven't seen this persistent inflation even begin to decline. nobody is thinking about that right now. >> when do you expect we're going to start to see this persistent inflation decline do you have a sense as to when we're going to get consistently lower numbers? >> well, at the beginning of the year i would have said the second half. now i'll say the first half of next year. we should see a meaningful decline in inflation and it's very complicated. because it depends on how much this inflation is due to the demand forces and how much the

supply constraints if the latter, it's going to come down kind of on its own that's what my forecast, and i think that's what forecast implies with the fmoc. if it's all demand, could have a deep recession >> larry, we're talking about the fed, but we have a number of central banks this week that are expected to raise rates and we're seeing this crescendo tightening the world over. what does that mean for the incredible strength we've seen in the dollar recently >> well, the fed is out front. we have a stronger economy we started to raise rates faster we're further along. the dollar has appreciated a lot. and what that means is, it's good for u.s. inflation, bad for inflation abroad but it's what it is. each central bank makes decisions on its own

>> we're going to find out from a bunch of them. almost a dozen this week alone larry, thank you larry meyer talking fed ahead of the meeting later this week. thank you. >> thank you after the break, a lot more of my interview with tech billionaire and astronaut jared isaacman on his upcoming spacex mission as well as his thoughts on the broader economy >> the fact you're seeing the pace of spending, especially among big tech companies slow, you're starting to see some layoffs, i mean, canary in the coal mine for a broader recession from your standpoint >> well, i mean, i certainly think it's one of the indications, right i mean, if you just look at the last six months, it was, you know, some of the big tech names were slowing the pace of hiring, they're doing a hiring freeze. now we're doing some layoffs yeah, i think that's an indication for the organizations that were sillbacay operating in a grow at all costs.

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reliable and secure for your business. welcome back to "squawk on the street." the space industry, despite the

stark space selloff, is still forging ahead. jared isaacman is partnering again with spacex. this time for the polaris program comprised of three human spaceflights that starts with po polaris dawn it will include the first commercial spacewalk and highest earth orbit ever attempted i caught up with isaacman in boseman, montana, where the crew has been training by flying fighter jets take a listen. >> i didn't think i was going to space again. it felt so fortunate to be part of that experience coming back from inspiration 4, seeing the direction spacex is going with starship, having an opportunity to participate in a real developmental program where you're either testing technology and techniques that haven't been done in 50 years or something that hasn't been done at all was pretty exciting. you know, we came up with some great objectives for the polaris program and continue good work with st. jude. >> the polaris program it three

missions hopefully it culminates in the first crewed flight. talk me through the arc of what you plan to do on each of these missions. >> just starting with the first one, polaris dawn, which is what we're getting ready for for early next year. and basically we have three objectives on that mission one, we'll go to the highest earth orbit ever flown farther away from earth since someone walked on the moon 50 years ago. that's pretty cool besides just being a really interesting view and altitude, we'll gain a lot from radiation expossession you're, really close to the radiation belt. that informs two things. one, vehicle design. aivonics, and if we are going to get to mars and back, we would like to be healthy maybe find ways to develop countermeasures to better protect crew on a journey that hopefully a lot of people will be able to undertake when starship comes online.

two, we'll do an eva we'll do a spacewalk we'll vent it down the capsule and exit the vehicle the reason for that, when we get back to the moon and eventually get to mars, we'll probably want to leave the safety of our vehicle or habitat and get work on the surface of the planet we need to be able to make space suits not one at a time, that costs hundreds of millions we need to mass produce lots of space suits for the number of people we hope to some day send to mars. and gain operations that will help with future missions. third, we'll communicate over a starlincoln city lags. instead of those that were 40 years old. when we get to mars and send a video message home, you can do that keep that good connection back to earth so, that's one of our three objectives along with about 40 science and research experiments over five days. >> how did the polaris program come to be is this your baby?

is it a partnership with spacex? >> it's a partnership with spacex two crew members are spacex engineers. very talented employees. anna is our mission specialist and our medical officer, so she was a biomedical controller at nasa she's a lead mission director. if you saw apollo 13, she's the ed harris in the room. you can imagine what she would gain from going to space and being able to bring that to mission control. and sara gillis was the lead astronaut trainer for spacex she trained myself and the inspiration 4 crew she's trained every astronaut crew that's gone to space on the dragon you can the benefit of having a lead astronaut go to space that can train hopefully hundreds of thousands of people in the future spacex is contributing talent to it, creating lots of investments for space suits, life support changes and eva. polaris is contributing equally into it.

the actual objectives of our mission were jointly formed with elon shortly after the inspiration 4 mission. >> when i hear investments and contribution, how much is a mission costing? >> we don't get into that. everybody knows space is expensive. when polaris is done and starship, which could be the 737 -- couldn't have timed that better >> i was going to say, and not one of your planes. >> that's what we want that's what we want starship to be star base texas is not building one starship they are building hundreds of starships and you could potentially put hundreds in each of them. the goal is to open space to many and bring down costs considerably because it's a fully reusable launch vehicle. >> would it be fair to say through the poraris program you're building out with spacex a private astronaut corps? >> i think what we're doing is

continuing where we began with inspiration 4 to expand access to space to everyone and have lots of commercial astronauts. and i think we made a good amount of progress in a short amount of time it wasn't more than two years ago that the only way to get to space from the u.s. was through russia now we have crew four up there right now, crew five coming up you're about to have the third commercial astronaut mission coming up with polaris dawn. a lot of progress. >> what do you think of this from a market standpoint spacex, mass evaluation. i think most highly valued we've seen private companies not immune to market. is that a risk to the entire narrative? >> one, i think the amount of investments that's going into this space industry is fantastic. i mean, if -- i mean, we know so little about what's out there. we are literally a speck of

dust the fact we can get resources, especially private resources so we're not burning the taxpayer and having good private investment and make these strides, i think that's generally a good thing if we look at the landscape, there's probably some things that will have a tougher journey right now. i think suborbital is always going to be challenging because in a suborbital spaceflight, you can't put satellites in space, you know, so it kind of limits some of the utility. you have to depend on point-to-point travel. it's a tough leap to get there if you can put mass into orbit, that is a service that is only going to grow in demand over time no question about it so, i think those that are kind of prioritizing and focused on that is good i'm not surprised spacex has, you know, the highest valuation of a private company you know, throughout my more than two decade career in technology, if somebody has some ground breaking development, there is always somebody right behind you know, apple comes out with

an iphone. we're going to see a samsung or galaxy six months behind, right? spacex landed the first rocket on a ship in 2015. seven years ago. have done it more than 100 times. have really pioneered reusable technology no one has even done it once that just speaks a little bit to how incredible that organization it is, how much change is taking place there and they fully deserve that valuation because they are going to open up space for everyone >> yeah, so that was the space portion of our interview a little, dare i say, suborbital snack talk but we did also talk a little bit about the economy because shift 4 processes so many transactions across hotels and gaming and entertainment and restaurants and key consumer discretionary aspects of the economy. he said so far the data is not suggesting the slowdown, given

the pent-up demand we saw this summer and back to school with the beginning of fall. there's an expectation, in speaking to him, especially when you see fedex coming out and preannouncing last week, that a slowdown is coming that concerns him. >> back to space, though, you don't -- you don't have to talk about the economy. this is -- spacex is so interesting. >> i mean, we think the fed and the economy is exciting here at cnbc, right? >> we do but in the context of what you were talking about, what gets my attention, morgan, is talking about spacex, talking about the opportunity for what is one of the largest private companies in the world in terms of at least its value. i heard star base and starships. >> star base is in texas, in south texas on the water that is where -- it is essentially a city that you speak to the folks that are going back and forth there on a regular basis. that gets larger by the month. >> brownsville, right? >> it's that area. and it gets larger by the month. this is where musk, who i also,

it's my understanding, is personally involved in the development of starship and creating this mega, mega rocket to eventually take people to mars for colonization. this mission, polaris dawn -- not dawn, the third mission in the polaris program is expected to be that first crewed flight of starship. so, they're moving pretty quickly. >> i heard him say hundreds of starships eventually that's the idea. >> they're building. this is one of the things folks in the space industry are waiting and watching so closely and investors in spacex, private investors, is the first orbital flight of starship hopefully before the end of the year we see it make orbit. potentially. >> it will be fascinating to see -- when we talk about capex pressure, this is the ultimate capex and how that holds up in an environment where the fed wants to see money that's sloshing around get put away

>> yeah. in the meantime, something we've talked about as well, which is starlink, and the fact they are starting to forge these partners with companies like t-mobile for connectivity, which we've known was coming but it finally -- >> that was announced a few weeks ago. that's right good to have morgan back actually we learn so much after the break, don't miss it, we'll have an interview with the ceo of marriott. we'll talk about everything from, you know, consumer spending, of course, return to office they're unveiling a new headquarters later today we're back in two.

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marriott opening a new headquarters today, as companies call employees back to the office the facility will be home to corporate workers that support the chain's over 8,000 hotels. hotel bookings still remain down a bit compared to 2019 levels. marriott's ceo tony capuano joins us now good to have you with us let's start with the new headquarters you're also embracing a hybrid work model i'm wondering from an investment perspective, what you're

spending on the headquarters, is it worth it given people won't be coming in every day >> we think it is. remember, about 90% of our global workforce works on property so, they don't have the option of necessarily working remotely. and we want to try to harmonize our above property headquarters with our colleagues in the har u above property with the field. there's lots of activity behind me, the building has been filling up since we started moving in about a month ago and the ability to clollaborate in person, and the ability to work on special projects in support of the field are really facilitating the new building. >> obviously the business itself relies on business travelers coming back to a certain extent in key business districts. what are you seeing there in terms of trends? we had the journal reporting today saying we're back to 50% of 2020 levels what are you seeing on the ground particularly in your

hotels that do service a lot of business customers >> on a global basis, in the second quarter, every market except asia pacific had recovered to pre-pandemic levels of revenue per available room. if you look at july, the most recent full month data, the global rev par was up, and in the u.s. and canada, our largest market we were up about 3% leisure demand has led the recovery leisure is meaningfully ahead of where we were in '19 as of july, group demand as recovered on a global basis. business travel is not back to '19 but we've seen steady month over month improvement over the first half of this year. >> few expect it's going to get back to '19 levels perhaps ever. i'm curious.

do you think so? business people will travel, clearly, but not as often as they may have once done because of the opportunity to be able to connect with people virtually. so what are your expectations longer term for what that looks like, tony >> i don't believe overall lodging demand has been permanently impacted by the pandemic i do think, increasingly, it'll be a little difficult to tell you with precision exactly why someone is traveling i think that's good for our business this notion of blended trip purpose seems to be real it seems to have legs. and we think it'll endure after the pandemic so more and more travelers have learned they can conduct business from almost anywhere. and as a result they're combining business travel with leisure travel and we're not interrogating them at check in to say, exactly how many days are you on business travel, how many are leisure so it may be a little tougher to

tell you with precision. but as we've seen over the last couple of quarters, overall lodging demand is roaring back. >> but, tony, are these levels sustainable? we've been talking about inflation, the travel industry has not been immune to it and we know there was pent up demand. does it continue like this or does it begin to slow down at some point >> we have the luxury of marketing and pricing our inventory every day. so we watch demand patterns in real time. and as you rightly point out, there are plenty of headwinds that we're evaluating. whether that be the inflationary environment, increasing interest rates, political instability in eastern europe but so far we've not seen any measurable impact on our forward bookings why? i think a combination of a few trims. number one, in many markets, certainly here in the u.s., you have strong household balance sheets the labor market continues to be strong

there was already a move afoot from a psychological basis away from investing in hard goods towards investing in experiences. and finally, as you point out, i don't think we've gotten close to the bottom of the pool of pent up demand created by the pandemic so we are not naive to the potential headwinds of the impact you describe we're just not seeing it yet in the data. >> finally, tony, labor. again, another big question mark for this economy what are you seeing in terms of your ability to actually fill all the positions open at the various hotels >> through the first half of the year we've already hired 30 or 40,000 new marriott associates just here in the u.s at any one time, tvacant positions are at about 7,000 open positions, which is not measurably more than they were prepandemic. i think the only difference right now is they are more heavily concentrated in the leisure markets, which recovered

more quickly so that creates some challenges for us but we're seeing appling applic volume tick up month over month. >> thank you congratulations on the new headquarters, 6,600 square foot outdoor covered space, 11,000 square feet child care center. people really bringing their kids to work >> they sure are come pay us a visit we'll show you. >> appreciate it >> thanks, david. >> you're welcome. coming up on "techcheck," netflix getting an upgrade, stocks at about a one month high we'll talk to the alanyst behind the call as the dow and s&p go green. don't go anywhere.

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the street" i'm dominic chu. stocks have turned higher, real estate and health care the biggest laggards keeping an eye on the drug and pharma companies tied to covid vaccines and treatments.

shares of names like pfizer and merck also down. some traders are attributing the weakness to president biden's remarks on 60 minutes last night that there were problems with covid but the pandemic is over >> dominic chu i'll take it. as dom mentioned major averages are trading higher now we'll have more of my interview with jared isaacman, specifically an inside look at the fighter jet training itself. that's going to be on tonight on the news with shepard smith. >> good to have you back, morgan i did miss space coverage. i was like, is this stuff happening, we're not covering it. >> we mentioned star link earlier but the partnership announced with global star and apple as well. so there are activities afoot. >> although now i feel like i know what's going on again. as morgan said we started

off looking like we were going to trade a lot lower but we've reversed in the first, let's call it, hour plus of trading here you can see the s&p now up and the nasdaq as well following along a bit. nvidia still down 54% for the year but up 1.5% for the session. that does it for us on "squawk on the street," "techcheck" starts now good monday morning welcome to "techcheck" i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt and deirdre bosa today is now the time to double down on growth as tech slumps companies are cutting costs. we'll talk to a ceo who said they should do the opposite. oppenheimer saying now is the time to buy netflix. and the latest company hit by a cyber attack, take-two shares are down this morning. starting wit