of demand and how it holds up as you take a look at the auto makers they have 28-days supply, well below normal averages but it is starting to build just a little bit, not to the point that we can say they've got plenty of supply it is starting to build just a little bit brian. >> maybe a little good news for buyers down the road phil lebeau, thank you very much that does it for the exchange. i'm join seema mody on "power lunch," oh, by the way, it starts right now >> yes, it does. thank you, brian "power lunch" begins now, i'm seema mody rattling everything from stocks to crypto. this hour we'll explain the fallout and have a list of defensive names that could work in this environment. and the housing trade, as rates rise, sentiments falling for the 9th month. we'll look at the beaten down builders, lenders and see if any

are now good-byes. to brian with a quick check on markets. brian. thank you very much. it's been kind of a choppy session with not a lot of big moves either way you can see the dow jones is down a whopping .06% why is anybody going to take a big position could happen tomorrow. either way the markets may be in a holding pattern ahead of the fed decision on wednesday. materials and industries are two of the best performing sectors if you want to call them that. health care and real estate among the worst. nothing is moving in that big of a way. the bond market pricing in the action the yield on the ten-year hitting 3.5% earlier in the session. the highest since april of 2011. two-year yield at the highest level since november of 2007, seema. >> big moves there with 48 hours until the fed's interest rate decision we're taking a look at how rising rates are impracting different corners of the economy my next guest says the central bank should hike rates by 125

basis points on wednesday to stay ahead of the market rather than follow it that's president of kamar global strategies this strategy making you highly unpopular on wall street recommending the fed raise rates by 125 basis points. tell us why. >> i am creating unpopularity for long-term popularity it is difficult for the markets if the rates rise by 1 1/4 percentage points but if the fed does that, they are going to be ahead of the market for the first time rather than be a simple follower, which the fed should not be. so jerome powell has repeatedly said inflation is going to be transitory, even when he changed his mind, it took several more months for the tightening to

begin. what i'm saying is doing 1.25 percentage points is going to do a lot in terms of helping credibility and that is very good for markets, equities and fixed income over the medium term. >> beyond the fed's 2% target, how much weakness in the labor market is the fed willing to tolerate we have seen unemployment rise from 3.5 to 3.7% how high will they allow it to go, 4, 4.5%, what are they expecting. >> i think 4.5% is fine in terms of acceptability for the fed, seema, given that the midterm elections are taking place this november, and we don't have the percentage of elections for another two years. so the political side of it is going to be relatively dor manhdormant, here is the problem, and ryan spoke earlier in the program about possible credit events if you have a major institution

that is about to fail as we saw in 1998, 2008, then typically the fed springs into action, gives up all of its anti-inflation message and switches over to flooding the market with liquidity and bailing institutions out that to me is the risk, seema, not the higher unemployment rate >> hey, sri, thank you very much for the shoutout do you think there's a risk of the credit the previous talked about commercial mortgage-backed securities, not as big as residential. it's not '07, '08, nobody is saying that. the reality is if you have half-filled skyscrapers in san francisco, and l.a. and portland, and new york and chicago, and a couple hundred billion in debt on them, that is not a small thing. >> it is not a small thing at all, and what we don't know, brian, is to what extent those events, even if they are not a 1998, even if it's not a 2007, what if the cascade, one on top

of the other, and you have two or three institutions which get hit with the domino effect that's something we do not know. i don't think the fed is aware of it either, and if that happens, that's when all the bets are -- you need to change your playbook right away if that happens, because the fed is not going to stick with the anti-inflation stance anymore. that's the problem with what i have with the fed today. it is easy to keep citing pall paul walker at every press conference at the beginning of my career, i watched the federal reserve building because the interest rates were so high there were construction building that were shipping bricks over to the federal reserve because there was no concession industry there is no way this chairman, this federal reserve is going to go to any of those lengths to

control inflation, and with having let inflation go to such a high level, brian, they have to do a lot more than what they have done so far >> let's hope history does not repeat itself. i didn't mean to cut you off, sri, i'm curious what the play book should be for investors, two days until a fed decision. last week was the worst for the s&p 500 since early june what type of strategy should investors use right now, get more growth stocks, more value, get more defensive, what's the play >> very timely question, seema i have been saying going back to last october that we are going to enter not just a recession. it's going to be a stag found flation both equities and fixed income are losers as they were the last time around 40 years ago and under those circumstances you get to go hide in cash

you can hide in dollars remaining very strong. you can choose some commodities, and i have been a big proponent of globally diversified real estate where you go and hide the next two to five years and come out with a decent return a 60/40 portfolio between equities, and growth equities and value equities is not going to do it. >> creative strategies there we appreciate your time of sri-komar global strategies. >> he's basically right, blowing up the investor model. seema what you want to be is 70/30. he said no. >> that's why we bring him on a creative way of looking at the market. >> i don't know if he was listening to music we got to send sri a better headset. the next guest says the bigger unknown is how fast the rate of inflation will decline

and the mounting risk for earnings bring in carl farmer, portfolio manager with rockland trust. decline, let's hope. are you predicting a decline in inflation in the near term, carl. >> i wornt sauldn't say giant dedecline. >> it can't go much higher, the president made the point last night when they were asked by "60 minutes," it's not spiking up but inflation is everything because the fed is everything, and that's all we're talking about right now. what are your expectations for the fed, and what advice are you giving your clients right now? >> sure, absolutely. as you pointed out, interest rates may not decline. it's unlikely to see interest rates decline until inflation is under control. the most important point to remember and consider is in the last 50 years, the fed hasn't cut the funds rate while that late is lower than inflation cpi over 8%, we're not that close yet.

the biggest unknown, how fast the inflation rate can decline and to what level. know the impact is less, higher food and shelter prices may change the fed has work to do. >> the fed may have work to do, there's certain stocks you think can ride out this period of volatility you like nike, and it's one of the biggest movers on the dow right now. tell us the bull thesis here gl than >> thank you digital is in fact t24% of grand revenue. easier growth comparisons should see themselves going forward because the china shut downs and the supply issues anniversary coming up soon one thing to step back and realize is they have great relationships and strong endorsement deals with recognizable talent. the price is off more than 40%, and this sets up for a good entry point for a long-term investor. >> what are your thoughts about the dollar a lot of multinationals have this footprint overseas, getting

killed by the stronger dollar, which by the way, is at a 20-year high against the euro, a 24-year high against the yen how is that changing your forecast not just nike, but the tech sector the biggest names lost billions of dollars because of head winds. >> the movement has been fantastic. one thing again without predicting currency, in terms of trying to spot where the euro or dollar will head, a lot of the pain has been felt we're seeing some. you saw some of that in q2, and we should probably see more of that discussed certainly in q3 but you're right, it is a challenge, but i think a lot of some of what the multinationals have experienced should saturday turning around as we head into 2023, and we would like to take a long-term view of that. >> other names you like, visa and mastercard, those stocks haven't held up with the rest of the market. >> they actually held up better i guess during the selloff so far. they're not cheap but the cash to digital transition is accelerated during the pandemic and we have seen travel spending

continue to recover. kind of looking at the big picture, these are stable businesses that have continued innovation, which gives upside to the future. we like those here for the long-term. >> we'll looeave it there. v visa trading at $191 thank you for your time. thank you very much. >> on "power lunch "are beaten home buyers a buy. the analyst behind the report explains why the sector is about to turn. plus, bitcoin falling to its, get this, lowest levels in june we're going to discuss that. and before the break, a look at shares of fertilizer stocks. mosaic industries, some o. f th best performing stocks in the s&p 500. more "power lunch" after this.

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welcome back to "power lunch" home building sentiment falling for the ninth straight month. as mortgage rates hit 6.42%. are rising rates wrecking the housing trade. we're breaking it down in three components, the home builders, mortgage lenders and residential leads. let's start with the builders, xhbtf, down 32% this year. the next guest upgraded today saying the sector, historically outperforms following early declines let's welcome ken zener.

why do you think these stocks can ride out higher rates? >> thank you well, our new thesis looked at past credit cycle input, and what we saw was the builders actually out performing, which is kind of counter intuitive what led us to that conclusion we looked at 19 cycles from 1963, and we actually saw home builders have fallen 41% similar to what they are, 28% versus the market the home builders begin to perform in line with the market, so it's very much a relative call to the market the idea of being early payin which they suffered can equal early gain usually in the cycle, which averaged about 14 months. >> so this is more about how the stocks have traded ahead of future rate hikes. which home builders do you think has the most pricing power in

this environment we heard from toll brothers a couple of weeks ago, warning of a shortage of homes. that of course has been the big story for over many years now. >> right, so, you know, adjectives, tight, oversupplied pricing power. we follow stocks historically, appreciation, which as you know, is being rolled over i think there's quite a bit more supply out there than people think. so we are quite cautious on fundamentals we are quite cautious on policy conditions however, market conditions, valuation, relative under performance really give us a lot of confidence that from a relative basis the builders can start out performing, and it's

been pretty pronounced and out perform the market from late '07 into february '09. we saw that in 1966. we saw that in 1974, and i don't know how long the cycle is going to be on the downside, but i do think we have reached that critical point of relative neutrality that leads to some out performances as you look down the line. >> if the fed goes with 75 or 100 basis points on wednesday, how do you expect home builders to respond >> you know, how we get to the fed moving to the two-year, if that's the, you know, litmus test we want to use. i think for more, you know, for mortgage rates, it's really important to think about the ten-year, which is different than the front end of the curve or title rip, real rates, inflation expectation, and mortgage premiums, right now, which, the mortgage premiums are roughly 100 basis points, you know, 260, 70 above their long-term average, so i think there are some cards that could

be, you know, potential offsets for what's obviously a very difficult fundamental environment that we looked back in our report from 1973. >> we'll leave it there. home builders are trading higher ken zener, thank you for joining us. let's pivot to mortgage lenders. shares of rocket and home point capital down 45% uwm holdings up more than 35 some are slightly higher today has been a rough year and who can blame it let's bring in b of a research analyst, in one of your notes, you note that mortgage volumes are likely to be materially lower. i don't think that's going to be breaking news to anybody, but how material is materially lower? absolutely thank you so much for having me. in terms of mortgage volumes, you know, we rely on the market indices, particularly the mortgage bankers association, fannie mae, freddie mac, we have looked at some of the estimates and in general, you know, last

year, they had estimates of 4.3 for the mortgage market. this year, closer to 2.4 trillion so far, and there's risk to the downside, i think, on those numbers too we're talking about $2 trillion total mortgage market size >> can every company that's public that you cover survive that, mahir? do some of these companies have to consolidate or go to zero >> we've certainly seen that we've certainly seen some con s solidation happening you're seeing real risk of, if you will, being priced in off of these types of -- off the kinds of scenarios you laid out. that said, you know, there are certainly companies like rocket out there which have a very strong liquidity position. they're certainly -- we think a lot of them will survive it's a matter of, you know, how long that's the real challenge is how long these kind of conditions last >> you know, there's going to be

long-term survivors, and if you're an investor in this space and you're thinking ten years out, a rough couple of years some companies may not make it you want to buy when things look the bleakest you can tell us if you think it is is rocket, dan gilbert's company, the one that wins >> they certainly have advantages, you know, we have brought it out in previous reports. we certainly think the challenges remain, and to be clear, have an under perform rating on them that said, we think that longer term they have real advantages on the technology side we also think they're doing interesting things where they're leveraging their technology with other players in the market. through the sales force partnership and the financial players. we think that can be interesting. we certainly like them as a low cost square in the space we like the direct to consumer model as mortgages get

digitized. we think they have some advantages all that said, i would come back to the short-term is, we were a little skeptical in the short-term. >> is this the bleakest it's going to be or is it going to get even bleaker i mean, rates are going up they're not coming down for a while. >> right and we think that -- and that's really the performance rating, what you mentioned rates going up we think there's a little bit of demand disruption, if you will, to come. we also think that the industry has started to rationalize, there's potentially room for further rationalization and cost cutting. you're going to see earnings pressured and margins pressured, and competitive is high in the industry, we don't get to a point of, you know, equilibrium where you start seeing some of the margins start improving. it's hard for us to say we're at the weakest point today. >> mahir, it's a pleasure to have you on. it's a tough space, we appreciate it. thank you. finally, residential stocks,

all down 25% or more this year camden property trust, essex property, and mid america apartments have yields of 3%, versus 3.5% of the ten-year treasury yield let's bring in alexander, how would you size up the opportunity as the fed is expected to get more aggressive? >> well, thank you here at piper sandler, what we're looking at is continued fed rate action. one of your prior guests highlighted the point that in the early '80s when volker killed inflation, he was 600 above, and the fed is 600 points below. either the sun belt or suburban, camden and mid american which have a heavy presence through the smile states, d.c. down to florida across texas to the southwest. and then essex, while it's california and washington state,

seattle, it's 90% suburban they have been exiting the urban cores that have been hit with covid and the social unrest over the past few years, and essex had migrated to the lower cost suburban markets seeing strong demand in parts of california, and without the social pressures and more affordable reps >> as rates rise, do you expect the residential real estate trust to grow their dividend >> yes, i mean, if you look, and again, you've had a number of guests who have looked back in history at piper sandler, we have done the same thing, so we look back in the 70s at the last time we had stagflation, and what's interesting is people forget that in the early 70s recession, and late 70s recession, we had good job growth keep in minde shut off sort of like jurassic park, not meant to be turned off and turned back on with that, there's a backlog of not only manufacturing and supply products that people

want, but also jobs. people had a chance during the covid shut downs to reevaluate their jobs what happened is a lot of them decided to leave the gateway areas and move south into lower cost areas when you talk about the next ten years, the sun belt has for the past 20 years, has been outpacing the growth they have been seeing more economic growth, and they have also seen rents that are still affordable there under 2,000 a month. whereas coming from new york, i mean, 2,000 a month, parking spots are almost that much the affordability of the sunbelt can't be overstated and that's an important driver for earnings and dividend growth. >> and also underscores the need as an investor, to look at the geographical foot proint to figure out if it's a good buying opportunity. i was noticing that the single family residential are performing much better than

multifamily reits, why do you think that is? >> a key difference that viewers should remember, in the housing boom of 2000s, there were people buying homes who couldn't qualify for an apartment there are a lot of people who need a home but financially can't afford it. those of us who are homeowners there's always something breaking on a home it's an expensive endeavor >> and look, we just had our air-conditioning redone, and we asked the local pricing, not the fairfield county pricing so i mean, taking care of a home is very expensive, and there are a lot of people who renting is better that said, when you look at housing today, people have gone back to the basics, they're living where they want to live for their life if they need a home, they're choosing whether to own or buy based on the financial decision. that's a big difference from the 2000s, everyone viewed housing as a get rich quick scheme. >> it's a great point. we have to leave the conversation there i think a lot of homeowners can relate a lot of people like to rent they don't like to do all the

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thoughts on navigating supply change on cnbc, 3 eastern, watch or listen live on the cnbc app. welcome back to "power lunch" take a look at travel and hospitality stocks mostly higher today after president biden yesterday on "60 minutes" declared the pandemic was over airlines, casino names trading in positive territory. vaccine makers, moderna, biontech both down more than 8% at this hour those comments making moves in the market let's get to bertha coombs for a cnbc update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. queen elizabeth's coffin is now in the vault below st. george's chapel at the end of her committal

service before her coffin was lowered, the queen's crown, orb and scepter were removed king charles placed the banner on the coffin. the private burial is set to begin soon. an american who had been held hostage in afghanistan since 2020 is now free navy veteran mark freericks, his release came in exchange for a convicted taliban drug lord jailed in the u.s. secretary of state antony blinken says his freedom is the result of months of work by u.s. officials. and while puerto rico is still dealing with the flooding and blackouts from hurricane fiona, hurricanes in california are threatening mud slides there. the storm is helping contain wildfires across the state no growth was reported for the mosquito fire near sacramento. that allowed some evacuation orders to be lifted or

downgraded crazy weather out there. back to you. >> record heat, rain storms, extreme weather in california. >> extreme weather all the time. i grew up in california. we took out our yard in 1984 because it was so dry, the grass wouldn't grow. we put in green lava rocks don't fall on green lava rocks, they're very sharp. >> that sounds painful. >> i'm looking at this camera cool ahead the weight of rates on the market crypto falling to the lowest level in three months, why rating are hurting the currency as well. and we'll take a look at defensive names that can homld u in a rising rate environment defensive nas, l's gmeetet defensive. >> let's do it. >> don't tell me what to do. >> don't tell me what to do. we're back after this. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars.

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welcome back, 90 minutes left of the trading day. we've got stocks, bonds, commodities, crypto, what do you want, we got it all. they're all getting hit by the rates. let's begin with bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. they're not moving a lot i was saying, you're there, if i'm wrong, say sully, i love you, i know you do, but you're

wrong. is anybody going to take a massive position ahead of the federal reserve in the next couple of days. >> no, but we have decent volume the low print was at the open. everybody who wanted to sell sold right at the open, and we lifted after the open. 3869, we're basically flat on the day. we hit the lowest level since friday right at the open, so we held the recent low levels people watching technical, we're at the lowest level since mid july at this point i think it's important that we held in terms of movers, it's a hodgepodge of different groups the key one to watch is fedex here, the two-year low, transports at an 18-month low, that's bouncing, only modestly, and some of the other transports are bouncing the airlines are doing better. some of the materials, free port is having a good day, mosaic, and we mentioned earlier, an upgrade at keybanc seema was mentioning pharma and

biontech, president biden said the pandemic was over yesterday on "60 minutes," really, moderna, pfizer, biontech, which trades here all notably weaker on that. finally, you know, brian, you want a sense of how unhappy people are, may and june despair, the idea that because fedex made the terrible comments, earnings are going to fall apart right now, i would nibble at 3,600, bite at 3,300, and gorge at 3,000 we're at 3,800 andchange this gives an idea of how pessimistic the street is. there's a lot of people circling around the 3,200, 3,300 level as some kind of bottom here brian, back to you. >> you see those pharma stocks i think the president broke news last night when you say the pandemic is over he said it twice, and yet you're at the same time trying to get people to take a new vaccine, that's what happens to stocks. i think. >> exactly >> i think he broke some news to

a lot of people last night. now to the bond market rates were once again rising no surprise there. and the stats are eye popping. ten-year yield crossing 3 1/2%, that's highest level in eleven years. the two-year hitting another 15-year high and a few basis points shy of 4% wow, oil closing for the day a big inter-day turn around after hitting 82.10 per barrel this morning it dropped crude oil rebounding, back up at 85 bucks per barrel. a lot of forces at play. we had a huge spr release last week nearly a million barrels a day every day last week. i mean they have just been selling, selling, selling, from the spr. that's going to be coming to an end the first week of november is when it's scheduled to end. a lot of talk about the saudis and opec defending at 80 to $90 range. all right. now, let's talk about bitcoin.

all right, you heard people on the very fine network say for a long time bitcoin was supposed to be an inflation hedge it hasn't played out that way. bitcoin falling below 19,000 today. the lowest level in three months is it higher rates is it something else kate rooney knows. and she's here to tell us. kate, what's going on. can. >> reporter: bitcoin was created to be gold not the case as cryptocurrency has become more mainstream, sitting in portfolios as the ultimate risk asset and getting sold off the hardest, as wall street flews some of the riskier, high growth trades and with rates going up, it's all about the safe havens, physical gold, treasuries the u.s. dollar, and bitcoin has been trading in the opposite direction of those bitcoin versus the u.s. dollar, there has been a strong inverse correlation with the dollar at multi-decade highs, bitcoin

going in the opposite direction. analysts i'm talking to say global macro news is the only narrative right now that matters for crypto it is driving prices and out weighing any positive industry it's a great example, the erge we talked about it on crypto night, a highly anticipated software update, inve tstors, te cpi number which took the wind out of eithers rally, also example of the old concept tom lee's fund among those firms, bullish on crypto long-term, but they're recommending downside protection in the coming weeks with fed jitters going on that's usually done through options, tend to be the bearish bets there's an easier way to bet against crypto, bitcoin inverse etf, and doing well in the last couple of months, up about 15% or so in the past few months back to you, brian and seema.

>> buy the rumor, sell the news, whatever it might be and i saw your fantastic interview. what was it like three hours long, i admit, i didn't watch the entire thing, with sam bankman fried, but it feels like there's some kind of backstop to bitcoin itself but sits at 19 and kind of holds that, i feel like there's some defense force out there, protecting the blind side in a football analogy. >> the interview is competing with the nfl on sunday you have an excuse for not watching the whole thing that's a great thing as more institutional money comes in, it's been seen as a bottom if bony goals low enough, there's thought that whales or larger investors would support the miss we have seen it languish it's really been between $19,023,000. bitcoin versus the other cryptocurrencies out there is seen as safe haven

if you look at it as a whole it's been a lot more steady than smaller coins. there is a downside protection built in that others have called out but not a lot of momentum to the upside which has been a big issue for bitcoin to regain that momentum not a lot of retail buyers, not a lot of positive momentum. >> bitcoin down 2%, but it is holding on to that $19,000 level. k kate, thank you kate rooney on the crypto beat. the big money behind one company that is using massive amounts of data to reduce waste. before the break, we're celebrating hispanic heritage month, featuring our colleagues and contributors here's andres garcia amaya. >> i came to the united states from colombia when i was 12 years old. my heritage had a huge impact in my success you don't have to look hard than the company that started zoey

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welcome to "power lunch," time for trash talk, foods, chemicals, they become climate or offenders from the methane to the fuel use to get them to landfills, how do you reduce your emission, senior climate correspondent, diana olick has that. >> one of the reason companies produce waste is because they don't know exactly what is in the products they are throwing up, what can be recycled and re-purposed. that's where a start up called smarter sorting comes in

>> we have a huge data set, over 456 data points on what products are, their physical and chemical attributes. >> smarter sorting uses that data to help retailers and brands increase sustainability and reduce waste while complying with increasing regulations on waste disposal. >> when you can use math and data to determine what a product is and if it's actually toxic, then you can handle it in a lighter footprint way through the supply chain and at the end of the life. >> whether it's food, chemicals, plastics, product packaging. >> will this blow up is that toxic. smarter sorting knows. >> it can identify every ingredient so it can inform a company specifically how to better dispose of it, recycle it, or perhaps in the case of food, donate it to a food bank albertson's, costco, and wegmans are all clients. it's one step toward if not zero waste, at least a reduced waste

future. >> by having all the data digitized, we're able to make informed decisions and speedy decisions, it's really proven efficiencies >> republic services is one of the largest environmental waste service companies in the u.s. and a partner with smarter sorting. >> by reducing the amount of waste we have to pick up, we're reducing our carbon footprint, fewer miles on the road, less materials in landfills. >> backers include regeneration vc, total funding just over $55 million. the company increases its data base of products daily, helping clients figure out the best and most environmentally friendly way to dispose of re-purpose their waste. without it, companies tend to take the cheapest alternative, to burn it, and that is of course the worst thing possible for the planet. >> wouldn't it be more expensive than throwing it out

>> to use smarter sorting, there's a cost, that's how they make money, if you compare that to the loading docks, having the manpower to sort through the products and have trucks idling and waiting, you have to weigh the costs against each other >> makes sense thank you m. still to come on "power lunch," finding the best defense, names that could protect your portfolio in a, you guessed it, rising rate environment. >> is that what we're in is that happening? >> did you write that? >> did you write that? >> we're back after this ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized.

based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

welcome back. market volatility and rising rates are front of mind ahead of this week's fed decision we're looking at some stocks our next guest calls defensive plays. berkshire hathaway, wells fargo and starbucks. that's what's on the plate let's welcome in bill stone, chief investment officer at glennview trust company. let's kick things off with berkshire hathaway why do you like this stock >> i mean, when we talk about defensive, you can't get much better than this i'm coming to you not far from fort knox and berkshire has a

fort knox balance sheet with buffett and moffett. insurance companies have this float, which is really the money that they get to invest while they're waiting to pay out claims and if yields are going up, they make more money on that float. i think the last thing is valuation. typically even berkshire it starts repurchasing shares somewhere between 1.2 and 1.3 times book value it's currently gotten back down to about 1.3 times book. so, i think there's some support here as well >> next up is wells fargo. a slightly more affordable stock than berkshire hathaway, bill. >> true. and not very beloved as much as berkshire is beloved, wells fargo probably doesn't bring those warm and fuzzies, but they have a great franchise. great deposit rate, they've had some regulatory issues that being said, while constrained, they've been working on the expense side.

they also, in terms of large cap banks, are one with some of the highest leverage to higher yields we talked about -- this was partially talking about yields, their earnings generally -- one of the larger ones to benefit from the higher yields. >> starbucks with a new ceo coming in. >> i'm going to say this is kind of the defensive by offense. a lot of what's kind of bedevilled starbucks has been china. china's really one of their big growth engines with all of the covid shutdowns there, that's crimped their growth over there. that eventually will end i would have hoped it ended before, obviously, and i'm sure they did as well but eventually that will come through and it's unrelated to our interest rates even that aside, they've got the new ceo, as you mentioned, that's going to be starting. they're investing in what is the new business, which is all people taking away coffee, not

sitting at starbucks drinking it and also just more efficiency to get you in and out of there quicker to make it, in reality, they don't have to have as many workers. it's a growth engine the last thing i'll mention, they have had no problem passing along price increases, and that's important. >> a quick thought on the broader markets here seeing an intraday reversal in the dow. we're down about 60 points do you think this is some nervousness ahead of the fed decision or is there more to it? >> i think one of the good things is a full 75 basis points is priced into the fed i personally don't think they go beyond that. so, we've kind of digested, what i'll argue, is a lot of the bad news from the inflation side you know, plus we were pushing -- we're close to 20% off the highs now. it's been at least a decent bounce always been a buying opportunity. at least in the short run we might at least get a little bounce here. >> bill, thank you

dow down 30 points bill stone up next, a rare interview with billionaire family office manager sam waltman. m think it's lucas sais no longer with us he died a long time ago. ♪ ♪

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- yieldstreet presents: alternative investing matchinwith kal penn andption. older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs) - oh, it's no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet. they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - ooh. i think some of my gray hairs just reversed. - yeah. you're welcome. - [narrator] become an investor today. yieldstreet: private market investing. welcome back for many investors making money is not enough you want to do good with that

money, like family offices which don't have to promise investors a certain return one young billionaire, the second youngest person under 40 after mark zuckerberg. >> a recent survey found half of family offices will reinvest and being driven by the next generation of investors. lukas walton, the grandson of sam walton, has built billeders vision, over $4 billion in capital. most family offices make money on one side and give it away on the other. lukas walton has decided to tie it all together to fund solutions, the food supply, clean oceans and the energy transition >> what we're doing here is challenging. i just start with that every day. we're trying to tie together cultures from hilanthropy, fro

impact investment and from -- and venture capitalists, right, not to mention public pashgts and equity managers. that's three different cultures right there. >> challenging but successful. he was an early investor in sweetgreen and beyond meat his bc fund is now in the top qu quaurtile of returns today builders vision announcing $1 billion in their charitable foundation is now 90% invested in impact investments. that's about five times the average for a typical endowment. you can read the entire interview on cnbc pro. this is the first time lukas walton has given an in-depth interview. it's certainly worth checking out on cnbc pro. guys >> what was it like? what was he like personally? >> really humble you know, he grew up -- went to college in colorado, studied environmental science. he wears tevas and jeans

spends most of his time our ban farms or alaskan fisherifisheri. really interesting guy only 36, so he's really just getting started. with $22 billion, he's got a long runway. >> thank you appreciate it. such a pleasure to do this with you, brian sullivan. >> my pleasure. >> yeah, it is. "closing bell" begins right now. stocks clawing back from early losses but stalling near the flat line as a key week of trading gets under way the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen take a look at where we stand in the market we've just gone positive on the dow and s&p 500. nasdaq was a little farther along there, up 0.10%. looking to reverse a little of last week's losses remember, we were down 5% on the s&p. what's working right now it's materials, industrials, consumer technology is also doing well, as you can see b