spends most of his time our ban farms or alaskan fisherifisheri. really interesting guy only 36, so he's really just getting started. with $22 billion, he's got a long runway. >> thank you appreciate it. such a pleasure to do this with you, brian sullivan. >> my pleasure. >> yeah, it is. "closing bell" begins right now. stocks clawing back from early losses but stalling near the flat line as a key week of trading gets under way the most important hour of trading starts now welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen take a look at where we stand in the market we've just gone positive on the dow and s&p 500. nasdaq was a little farther along there, up 0.10%. looking to reverse a little of last week's losses remember, we were down 5% on the s&p. what's working right now it's materials, industrials, consumer technology is also doing well, as you can see by the nasdaq

health care, real estate, energy, that's what's underperforming. the chart of the day is the ten-year treasury. this is going to be very much in focus ahead of the fed hitting its highest level earlier since 2011, touching about 3.5% as we await wednesday's fed decision coming up on the show today, morgan stanley's chief economic strategist mike wilson will join us and talk about why he thinks wall street's expectations are still too high. an extremely rare interview with the ceo of ralph lauren it is his first tv interview in the role he's been ceo almost five years. he'll join us on the back of the company's investor day for a closer look at the customer and the consumer stock is moving higher. senior market commentator mike santoli, ahead of the fed, kind of quiet. what are you watching? >> kind of quiet yields keeping the stock market in check equities sort of shook off the

standard post-expiration friday hangover tried to get traction. last week's decline did break down the s&p 500 chart to a degree, anyway this has been that little uptrend since june that did get broken unclear exactly whether it's on a quick line back to the june lows but that is what people are worried about. this is the minus 20% level, about 3850 from the highs. that -- you know, in the past that has actually been a little bit of a place where we did pause. in terms of valuation, everyone expecting the fed to keep the pressure on. the two-year note yield has been racing higher. it's going towards 4%. and there's a lot of talk that equities valuation adjustment has longer to go take a look at how it breaks down in terms of the forward pe of the overall market, is still in the 16.5 range. if you look at the models based on the two-year note yield, it should be lower. in theory, it should be more like 14 if not below that. if you break it apart, the nasdaq 100 is still very

expensive. 21 times forward that's not adjusted. it's still near pre-pandemic highs. the equal weighted s&p, it already is around 14 arguably the majority of stocks maybe have taken their medicine, even if the largest ones have not. who knows, sara, in a risk-off event if, in fact, you'll make those distinctionses that's the way it sets up. >> the other question is adjusting to what? we know this week 75-basis point hike, the biggy, is priced in already. the question is whether fed chair powell decides to get aggressive and prepare us for a higher terminal rate than 4%, which he hasn't done before. if so, then where market expectations go? >> he hasn't prepared us for that explicitly. the april fed funds future have 4.4% right now that doesn't mean stocks get that. >> still has a pause next april, right? >> that's where they pause the higher for longer has been the message. not necessarily how high the two-year note yield close to 4% captures what the market is up to. >> you think a lot of the

hawkishness -- >> for the bond market it's in there. >> mike, thank you we'll see you later for the market zone. morgan stanley's mike wilson reiterating his bearish call on earnings, saying investors may face a volatile path trying to clear the decks. joining us is mike wilson. you expect more pain for the stock market after a pretty brutal week last week? >> yeah. hi, sara it's good to see you i'm going to pick up where mike left off, which is i think his summary was quite good the average stock has taken a lot of pain. we've written about this, which is we think the average stock probably made its low some time this year, maybe in june, maybe before june, but the index is still overvalued that's where probably the majority of the pain will come as, you know, we get the final capitulation, which we think will be driven mostly by the growth i agree with mike's point of

view that the bond market has priced most of what the fed is going to do. that's probably as far as you're going to be able to go in this cycle. but the stock market has not because, as you pointed out rightly, the multiple for the s&p 500 is probably two terms too high and that's before the earnings get cut there's more pain for the index, it's going to be idiosyncratic and i think the job of investors is to find those individual securities they want to underwrite through this slowdown that we're going to have, whether it's a recession or not. it's probably a majority of stocks there is opportunity we've been more defensively positioned, that's been working. we're focused on companies that have good earning stability, companies that have already lowered the bar on the earnings that have been more realistic. those are good to be thinking about and that's how we're approaching it. >> i think the question, mike, is what kind of recession we're looking at if the fed -- if the fed just engineers a recession to cool down inflation, but otherwise household balance sheets are in

good shape, corporate balance sheets are in good shape, the financial system is in good shape, isn't that somewhat shallow and benign ultimately for the economy and the market >> yeah, i think that's right. but remember, we still got to go through that, right? so if you're going to have a recession, we're sort of 50-50 on that recessionary outcome, that means earn beings have to come down by close to 20%. we don't think that's priced by any stretch. so we're going to get through that process and that revision sort of process. and then i actually agree with what you just said it's not going to be a long, drawn out recession in our view. that means 2023 could end up being a pretty good year the fourth quarter we think is going to be pretty tough. >> you don't think it's going to be a deep recession and you think bond yields may be peaking here both of those things might suggest the equity market would rebound or be a good time to buy. that's the part you don't agree with, though >> that's right. i think if the market was more

fairly valued, then i would say that's appropriate, but it's not. even if you're taking there's not much downside, it's hard to get upside our target for june of '23 is 3900 that's where we are today. as an investor you would like to see some upside if you take equity-like risks and that's why we'll get a lot more interested when we get down to the low 3,000s whether we get there or not, we want to see revisions come down. historically the market has never done well when the revisions are that bad. >> you think what's going to take us there is the earnings revisions to reflect the economic downturn, even though we may see lower treasury yields, we may see continued disinflation or all out deflation, all of which would ultimately be positive for companies. >> ultimately that's correct our job is to determine if it's a good risk/reward and take a swing and risk up here

on an index level, we think that's incorrect on the stock level, i think there is opportunity we've gone through, you know, quite a bear market already. and this is really a stock-picking game at this point. just understand that it's not -- it's not like a big -- like the majority of stocks, okay, is not -- are not going to work that's where the bull market is when majority stocks are working. at this time majority of stocks are going to be working. >> how do you find the winners am you said defensive is where you've been positioned what about tearing through the rebel where a lot of stocks are 50, 60, 70% from their highs, particularly in tech >> absolutely. and so what that really boils down to is we're looking for companies that have either lowered the bar. you've probably had two or three earnings revisions already that are significant, or you have situations where, you know, the business are more defendable and they continue that pricing power. they've got better control of costs. they've managed the situation better than others that's the operational eff

efficiency factor. that's what's been working what the markets are paying are companies that can basically protect the bottom line or they have pricing power in a way they don't have to worry about that because their top line growth remains superior it's harder. in this environment, it's not a majority of stocks it's a small minority of companies that are able to do that right now >> and within the defensive group, utilities are higher for the year consumer staples are almost. health care has been working really well, too of those, which looks best to you? >> from a sector standpoint, health care is probably top of the list for us because it absolutely is cheap and relatively cheap compared to its history and compared to the market that's still an attractive sector probably top of the list for us. second would be beverages within the -- within the staples environment because they have better pricing power and a better handle on correspondences. utilities is probably third in that regard. look, there are things that have been technology that probably look attractive. if i look at the three major sectors, software, hardware and semiconductors, you can't say at

the subsector level, that's where it gets more idiosyncratic. >> mike wilson, thank you. appreciate you joining us. the national association of manufacturers just releasing its third quarter outlook survey some key warnings around the supply chain, labor and inflation. ceo jake timmons will join us next to share the results. we've got a rally here the dow is up 86 points. looks like we're at the highs of the day. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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getting a nice little jump in the dow it's up 150 points mike wilson, morgan stanley, he walked back some of that negativity still said we could go down to 3,000 on the s&p but thinks yields are near the top. doesn't think it will be a deep recession, just that the indexes have more work to do to catch up with earnings and falling expectations again, home depot, nike, caterpillar, those are the leaders, the biggest contributor to the dow gains health care is under pressure. we'll talk about that a little later on in the show mow determine in that particular, a big loser. let's talk manufacturing inflation and supply chain issues are still top of mind for manufacturers, according to a new survey out this morning from the national association of manufacturers. the majority of respondents are also expecting a recession this year or next despite the tepid outlook, joe biden said in a "60 minutes" interview, manufacturing is making a comeback in the united

states joining us is jay timmons, ceo of the national association of manufacturers. do you agree with that >> it's good to be here. i actually am very pleased with many actions of the biden administration as well as congressional democrats and republicans in terms of adopting and enacting legislation to be helpful to manufacturing you think infrastructure investment, you think about the c.h.i.p.s. and science act, you think about the ocean shipping reform act those are all great things for manufacturing. here's the rub i just wish the president would kind of back away from his insistent that we increase the cost of doing business in the united states by raising taxes on manufacturers and other businesses that's not going to help us. and i think that you're seeing that reflecting in some of that data we released today >> i thought you were going to say, here's the rub, none of it is happening right now when we talk about a chip renaissance of manufacturing in this country, we're not talking about this year or next year we're talking several years down the road so, what is the state of mvrg in

america right now? >> well, but what you are doing, you're seeing our government is actually betting on the future of manufacturing that's a good thing. to your point, those are long-term investments, those are long-term strategies what we're seeing right now is we're seeing the benefits of tax reform that was adopted in 2017. you're seeing the regulatory certainty we saw over the last few years and that has really led to record investment and hiring and wage growth for manufacturers since 2018 however, there's some headwinds. you mentioned them right at the top of this story. you see supply chain shortages, you see workforce challenges we have 834,000 open jobs in manufacturing. you certainly see inflationary pressures, largely due to increased costs of energy. so, against all those headwinds, the good news, manufacturers,

three-quarters of them are still optimistic about the future of their business but they cite all those issues as potential problems in the future that's what you say about half worrying about a recession. >> here's a number that surprised me in your survey. 78%, more than that, of manufacturing leaders listed supply chain disruption as a primary business challenge only 10% believe improvement will occur by the end of the year i thought it was getting better faster and on a bigger scale >> it's getting better slowly. and, honestly, i hear anecdotally. i hear from -- i'm actually at the board of directors meeting right now. we have 250 of the nation's leading manufacturing ceos and executives that are here and i hear anecdotally that the supply chain freeze is starting to thaw a bit. but you have that issue, you have the workforce shortages, you have inflation, all three of those things feed into each

other. it's a vicious circle. as we start to break some of those down, you'll start to see improvements, i hope, in all three of those areas >> related question, jay you see inflation before we the consumer sees it, you're earlier in the supply chain. is it coming down? what's your prediction for the next few months? >> certainly seen it stabilize there's no question about that it was really rampant. think about this, we've pumped literally hundreds of billions -- well, we pumped trillions of dollars of debt into our economy over the last three years. of course, we didn't know what else to do it was the middle of the pandemic we said at the time, look, this is going to be inflationary. we need to prepare the american people i don't think our government did a good job of preparing the american people for what was coming the good new ises, i think the good news is, we're working our way out of that. the actions by the fed have helped temper inflation but we still have a long way to go, no question. >> i don't think anybody

predicted what would happen on the inflationary front. >> not to that extent. i will say that we -- in the manufacturing sector, we knew that much debt spending was certainly going to have an impact, an inflationary impact but you're right, we didn't see it coming to this degree. >> well, gooed to hear it's stabilizing at least thank you. keep us posted jay timmons, national association of manufacturers. let's get a quick check on the markets. 40 minutes left of trading the dow has taken a little jump here up 125, so is the s&p 500, up 0.50%. the nasdaq is in the lead, up a little more than 0.50% it's broad a lot of sectors are doing well. some of the best are tied to the economy like materials, consumer discretionary, industrials we have a rare interview with the ceo of ralph lauren, moving higher on the back of the company's investor day new targets for the next few days we'll get his read on the luxury consumer here and abroad check out shares of moderna.

i mentioned sinking today. at the bottom of the s&p 500 now down 50% on the year a top analyst willoius jn to discuss what's behind that move. "closing bell" will be right back

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stealth mover. su in. sunopta, suggesting standing upside of nearly 60% analysts saying consumers are thirsting for those products because cow milk are rising faster than plant-based products they have been a big winner this year shares rallying more than 40%. retailer ralph lauren outlining sales growth outlook and investors are liking the new plan the stock is up almost 3%. the company's ceo joins us exclusively to discuss his new pricing strategy, targeting younger consumers and more

luxury retailer ralph lauren higher today, on a day the company presented a positive three-year outlook on investor day. joining us, ralph lauren ceo

patrice louvet >> it's great to be here. >> you're out with a new three-year plan, mid-teens margins, which i think a lot of analysts were excited about. a step up in sales what's giving you the confidence >> we had three key messages for investors. first, our reset is complete and we have built what i like to call a fortress foundation second, we have a clear game plan with diversified growth drivers. north america, women's wear, digital. and third, with early momentum under our belt, we are poised to accelerate growth and value creation the company has momentum our ambition, which we stated this morning to investors is to be the leading luxury lifestyle company in the world and across brand, product, go to market, we have immense runway in terms of growth opportunity. >> fortress, a little jamie dimon-esque, with the fortress,

but how much is based on the ability to increase prices, which has been key to your strategy >> aur is part of it but we're focused on three new key drivers. new consumer recruiting. we recruited 3 million new consumers, higher value, younger consumers. unit growth, select unit growth in specific categories and channels and then continued aur growth. aur has been an important driver of our performance over the past few years. i like to think of it as an outcome of morally elevated products, more elevated marketing, more elevated distribution as a result, we have the ability to then drive aur. what's been really exciting for us is we have driven aur 64% over the past four years, while achieving the highest ever value rating among consumers the consumer is seeing the value, that's why we're delivering the performance that we're delivering. >> i'm trying to figure out how much of it is just the fact that we are in an inflationary environment and people have

been -- consumers have been willing to pay more, especially for luxury items, where they're not as sensitive to inflation, and they're still -- this big tailwind from being locked down in covid and how much is the individual strategy that you've been implementing how do you think about that? >> i think about that in the following way -- we started our elevation journey a little more than four years ago. we are on, i believe, the correct number is 22 consecutive quarters of aur growth this is not -- >> higher pricing. >> exactly >> so, what are you seeing from the consumer right now any slowdown >> as you look around our key markets around the world -- no, we're not seeing a slowdown. actually we're seeing our consumer in the u.s., in asia, in europe, continues to be solid, continues to be engaging in our products, including our higher priced items. so, at this point, we're feeling good about our target consumer over the past four years, we've done a lot of work to elevate -- >> what does that mean

>> you do that both from the way you present your brand in communications our range of marketing has evolved dramatically from four years ago. engaging, including a younger consumer you do that from a product standpoint we've invested in new aur categories outerwear. now we're going to focus on home accessories and handbags and then you also do that by really resetting your distribution where we've done that most acutely is here in the u.s where we have now shifted the company towards really being -- 63% of the company is direct to consumer. >> i don't think people realize that they think of you as a department store brand. >> that's absolutely right we talked about that earlier this morning i think sometimes there are old take place of what ralph lauren used to be indeed, and in department stores we have completely pivoted from that our focus and future trajectory is dtc

we have pulled back our u.s. department store doors by two-thirds over the last four years. we reduced our off-price presence by 60%. clearly focus on digital, focus on dtc. >> do you think the market understands the story? it is still down 20% or so this year and has underperformed some of the other retailers. >> i think obviously the context is not particularly supported for the industry we're in right now. we will certainly continue to, one, educate the market on what our strategy is. two, continue to execute on the key elements that we committed to one of the messages i had for the investors this morning is if you look at our investor day four years ago and you compare to where we are today, the headline thought is promises made, promises kept. both from a brand elevation standpoint, profitability standpoint, consumer recruiting standpoint >> you also get dinged because you're very international, and europe is sort of a mess right

now in terms of -- i don't know if you're seeing that, but with the energy crisis, inflation and rising interest rates, and then china as well. you're exposed there and what's happening in china? >> yeah. we feel really good about our international business a little less than half of it. china specifically -- so, we're committed long term to this market it's only today, 5%, 6% of our business our business has been incredibly resilient through lockdowns. consumer coming right back, bouncing back as we reopen, continuing to engage in our digital site i feel really good about the momentum we have in china. and i'm excited about the future growth europe, you saw earnings released last quarter, a few weeks ago. >> surprisingly strong >> we were up constant currency 25% versus a year ago. of course, the context is volatile but we're focused on getting back successfully and staying focused on our core strategies, elevating the brand, reinforcing our core and expanding our go-to-market

footprint. >> how big of a role do stores play going forward every company, including yours, got a bigger chunk of e-commerce during covid when you think about the future, what does that balance look like >> stores still have a role to play remember this conversation that says retail is dead. >> yeah, malls are dead, stores are dead. >> exactly boring retailers, for sure, dead the consumer is looking for an experience, looking for service. and that's what we look to offer in our stores. i like the way ralph has developed initially our store concept. because it is not just a trading location we invite you into our home. and the idea is that you're coming into ralph lauren home. from that standpoint, stores will continue to represent an important part of our mix. i think we'll continue to see increased penetration of our digital business right now it's about 26% that will likely go to a third of the company, 30, 33%. fundamentally when you see how consumers are shopping today, we no longer silo by channels

and i would argue today, every single sale is a digital sale because to some extent there's been some work online prior to the sale happening, whether it's in the store or on our digital. >> what's happening, patrice, on inventories and supply chain because it's been all out of whack all over retail lately trying to figure out where it settles. >> yes we have done a lot of work on the supply chain diversi diversification, localization, platform when i mentioned to investors, i really believe our supply chain is a competitive advantage we have seen that through covid, the strength and agility of our supply chain there's a lot of conversation about inventory. we feel well positioned going into the holidays on inventory and, you know, the situation is improving from a sourcing standpoint in our supply chain lead times, reliability is improving. logistics is still complicated, but also progressively improving. so, i'm cautiously optimistic

that things will - >> you're optimistic on demand for holiday, it sounds like. you're not worried about a slowdown the market is worried about a slowdown. >> i understand that i can tell you from what we're seeing in our stores and sites, we're pleased. >> patrice louvet, thank you very much. don't wait another five years. we appreciate it last interview was ten years ago when he was leading gillette for procter & gamble take a look at where we stand in the markets. we have 23 minutes left of trading. look at the nasdaq, up 0.75% the dow is up 176. again, near session highs. remember, we're coming off a pretty ugly week where we were down 5% on the s&p president biden declaring the covid pandemic over. that's sending shares of the vaccine stocks hard. an analyst on whether it's at a buying opportunity moderna down 7.4%. you can listen to "closing

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we've got a news alert on uber surrounding that hack we told you about on friday >> that's right. uber is out with a new statement this afternoon providing a little more detail on that disruptive cyberattack they had last week. we all remember that that attack was sort of disruptive to internal operations. they said, though, they were able to keep all the uber services functioning throughout the cyberattack. today offering a little more detail, including what they know about who's behind the attack. uber saying, we believe that this attacker or attackers, plural, are affiliated with the hacking group called lapsus,

which has been increasingly active over the last year or so. that group is also allegedly potentially behind a hack of rock star games over the weekend involving the grand theft auto video franchise. we need more clarification on who did that and why in this case, uber telling us a little more about how this happens, saying the hacker here apparently bought credentials for a contractor of uber on the dark web credentials that had been stolen at some point and then were for sale on the dark web, purchasing those and then trying to access the system again and again and again. they did have two-factor awe then indication in place that contractor ultimately did accept the access code on their phone or their device and that let the hacker in. they say some data has been stolen here. they're working through all of it to figure out exactly what's been stolen and what the long-term implications are there. >> good to get any information sometimes we don't even know about these hacks. good to get the transparency, i

guess, so people can safeguard thank you. take a look at bitcoin falling today, dipping to lowest level in three months and bringing down crypto stocks as well it's coming off the lows, but it is still down 1%, even though the market is rallying up next, we'll discuss whether cryptocurrencies can bounce back for real. home builders rallying and vaccine makers plunging when we take you inside the market zone. another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking

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crucial trading day and diana olick along with everything we're seeing in health care. mike, back to you. nice comeback in the final hour of trading what's causing it. >> treasury yields were in off their highs from the morning the market did get some traction there. a monday after a friday options expiration, sometimes you get a little relief there. also, the general sense out there, we also had a late day rally on friday that folks are underpositioned in stocks. we had this nice slide into a fed meeting. squaring up means buying as opposed to selling i think all those things together probably account for it we're still knocking around thoos levels a lot of bulls were hoping we're going to hold even slightly higher i think it mostly says that people didn't have a huge urgency to sell. >> yields -- we made new highs, highest since 2011 on the

ten-year mike wilson says he thinks we're peaking in yields but the market has a long way to go down. if you think you're peaking on yields, that might make other people bullish for stocks. >> it's unclear if there would be this perfect sinking of yields peaking and equities bottoming. it could happen. a lot of folks are looking at the fact that real yields, inflation-adjusted yields, are quite positive right now in fact, about as positive as they've been in years. and that usually feeds into the idea that nominal yields, which we look at all day, might be peaking or at least have built in most of what the fed has to do i agree with you, it would probably be a bullish reflex for stocks even if it wasn't the one thing that touched off a new uptrend. >> well, speaking of rising rates, make it nine straight months now, declining home builder sentiment. confidence falling three points for the september read that was the lowest since 2014, not counting the pandemic spring of 2020. on a positive note, keybank did

double up saying early pain means early gain picking out pulte group, dr horton, how is that changing given market dynamics? are we flat out calling a housing recession? >> several have called it a housing recession. the builderss did it last week and reiterated it today. 10.9-month supply at the end of august it was 5 1/2 month supply in the end of august. the existing home market still has a lack of homes for sales. not only because homes aren't selling but sellers are afraid to put their houses on the market like the chart of the ten-year treasury, that's the one the 30-year fixed mortgage rate loosely falls. mortgage rates went over 6% last

week, hit 6.24% today. when you're facing that and a huge amount of supply on the builders' backlog, they're starting to say things like amenities, like buying down the mortgage rate, and, again, lowering prices. one quarter of builders in the report today reported they were lowering prices. that's difficult to do given their high cost for land, labor, materials. and i think you're for sure going to start to see that showing up in the earnings reports. we get a couple of those later this week. sara >> so, i'm wondering how much bad news is in these stocks. to the call, the wall street call, that early pain equals early gain, people want to bottom pick here because it's been one of the hardest hit sectors in the market. what are you hearing about what is in these prices at this point in terms of whether it's all baked in or we could see a few more shoes to drop here in housing? >> look, you see home builder stocks at incredible lows, off 40% from where they were year-to-date of course, you'll have bottom

feeders in there looking at it, is there further down to go? that depends on the builder earnings we have coming up how much the losses are, how much those stocks continue to fall if you're talking about having the pain now and the gain later, there's definitely pain now. you talk about a bottom in this market i don't think we're at the bottom yet because we're looking at home price declines when you see this kind of demand falling out of the market, people are saying they've never seen this kind of volatility in housing in 40 years, it's just hard to make that kind of pick >> right pulte group trading at three and a half times next year's earnings bitcoin is under pressure, trying to recover from the slide that began over the weekend. it did briefly touch a three-month low early this morning and recovered a bit. as you can see along with stocks kay rooney joins us. what are they saying is the biggest mris driver for crypto ether had a terrible week with all of the excitement about the merge. >> that's a great example of this macro news really driving prices bitcoin has been playing this role of an extreme risk asset

for a lot of investors it's one side effect of crypto becoming more mainstream as a result, some of the global macro news is driving the narrative. analysts i'm talking to say it's the only thing that matters right now. things like the fed, rising interest rates, that's really outweighing any positive industry news and the merge was a really good example of that. it was highly anticipated stock upgrade for ethereum seen as great news for the industry but came as the same day as that cpi number that took the wind out of ether's rally. a lot of analysts are looking at the u.s. dollar for a leading indicator of what's going to happen with bitcoin. we've seen a strong inverse correlation there. really tends to be what's driving crypto analysts out there that's bullish long term but say it's going to be volatile in the near term get some downside protection they're talking about getting options. it's driving a lot of the option

activity and it seems a lot of trader are looking to hedge their positions at this point. >> kate rooney, thanks mike, as far as crypto is concerned, has the air come out of it? if you look at some crypto-related equities, their valuations obviously one of the poster children of this past leg of the bull market that people thought had to relax. >> for sure. obviously, a ton of air has come out of it. i don't know it's gotten down to some clearing price where it's actually now about real believers and users on one side and, you know, the miners and the early adopters on the other and somehow there's some tangible value level that's been reached. don't think that's what this is at all i think most of the activity, if you look at a volume-weighted level of excitement in this asset class, it was a year and a half ago and it was based mostly on price momentum. i don't know how much has to unwind it's underperforming the nasdaq 100 which it had been in lock-d

step there's a lot of activity going on i'm not sure it's something you can really believe in unless it is -- i mean, why should the fed matter to this if it was as promised, you know, this kind of new monetary infrastructure that was being built? >> we kind of moved on there even the bitcoin believers isn't talking about the inflation hedge so much or saying the market is sniffing out fed hikes which will put pressure on inflation early. clearly there's some liquidity benefit from the fed policy. moderna, the worst performer on the s&p 500. health care stocks overall are dragging the market after president biden said the pandemic was over in a "60 minute" interview. let's break these down michael, is that why moderna and other vaccine makers are down so much >> great to be here with you, sara two things going on, as we talked about previously, you know, the market is going to have to accept that the biggest wave of covid injections are

behind us. you know, certainly the u.s. and other countries are going to want to move forward and, therefore, the demand and promotion of these vaccines is going to continue to wane. certainly i think wall street's care about vaccine sales is going to start to melt out of the stock. we talk about air coming out of a stock. i would say that has to more fully come out of the moderna stock prices second is interesting, too, is next year biden is talking about, you know, going to a commercial market and the government not paying for these vaccines as well another sign that the focus on paying for all this in the pandemic is moving behind us >> i have to give you a chance to do a victory lap. this has been your case, even on days when moderna was running higher, people were so excited about the recurring revenue of multiple boosters and targeted boosters like omicron. you've been on hold forever and have a $170 price target, we're now at $127. are you going to take it lower from here? >> look, what i will tell you is

i've had a lot dialogue with investors who say i wish we could get past the covid, pull the covid hoopla out of the stock and at some point trade with hopes of a pipeline and all of the other things that they have, which they hosted in r&d day and analyst day a week ago we did put out a note saying there's a lot of stuff coming. we need to get past covid. i think we have to get past the winter where we'll find out there's not that many jabs going on as we turn to 2023, you start looking at the stock price around $100, $115, which is cash of $20 billion and a little -- $10, $20 billion of covid in there. i think there's more that could come out of the stock. however, at some point people are going to pay an interest to everything coming on rsv data, flu data, cancer data next year. we're getting close. >> $40 billion, you want to see

it get to $40 billion market cap and then you'll be interested, is that right? >> below $40 billion, i can see value there. >> got it. michael yee, thank you very much, on moderna. another upgrade for netflix, oppenheimer giving outperform rating, $320 target on suspected launch of ad-supported tier. betting netflix can charge premium prices for some of its biggest shows. listen. >> netflix canning a gate a very large amount of audience over a few-day period when they launch a new show, like a "stranger thing" or "ozark." you get a premium there. we think netflix has the ability to move around the timing of new releases for the biggest advertisers around product launches we think that's not something people are talking about yet, but will be over time. >> mike it's been a delayed reaction from the street on this ad tier. it seems to get more exciting with every little whisper that comes out around it.

how does this change the wall street view around netflix and how does it factor into valuation? >> i think you're getting a little bit more clarity, or at least clues about how exactly they're approaching the ad business, the partners they're going to have, and obviously they're talking to the street to some degree on their expectations i don't know that we know yet exactly what the ongoing demand is going to be i don't think anyone has any doubt it's going to be a great initial sell, a lot of advertisers will want to experiment to it, how many will trade down to the ad tier, what it means for net revenue changes. but it seems like the stock has built a bit of a base above the recent lows. it's certainly in a better position than most of the competitors that are subscale going from where they are to being no ads but having a vast user base, you know, to adding ads. it seems more additive than others trying to build scale it's either this or disney, but it's a long way up to where it fell apart and this price target

is interesting at 325. that's the level of the last leg down in that crash move from april. it would basically be getting back to that level, which is still vastly below the highs of just a few months earlier. >> look at the gap and the disney outperformance. didn't realize it was that stark. crude oil is higher today. just hit $85 a barrel. the dollar is a little weaker. treasury yields, while higher, off the highs of the day just about two minutes in the trading day. what do you see in internals right now as we head into the close? >> they're pretty sturdy, sara they improved throughout the day. looking like three to one positive to negative volume. it's basically still there on the new york stock exchange. at least nasdaq had been a little weaker. definitely firming up. small caps outperforming often that's what happens. take a look at financials or banks specifically on a month-to-date basis. well outperforming the s&p that's just opened up recently maybe they're finally latching onto the short-term yield

improvement. also value in general has had a decent comeback against growth in the last several weeks. that's manifested there as well. volatility index, it's probably not going to buckle too much ahead of the fed in a couple of days but it's in this no man's land going side ways in the mid-20s. still showing it's concerned, it's september, not too far off the lows but no panic in these stats just yet, sara. >> but i just want to point out microsoft because it joined the 52-week low list which is interesting and surprising, trading at the lowest level since may. >> microsoft and alphabet have been catching down to a lot of the weaker nasdaq stocks. >> and the index feels pain on some of these bigger stocks. thank you. as we head into the close, take a look, we're up 200 points now on the dow jones industrial average, the high of the day we continue to see improvement throughout the final hour. nike is doing well it's adding a lot of points to the dow.

the benefactor most sectors going to end up positive here. materials, industrials and discretionary are the highest performers health care lags nasdaq closing up 0.75%. that's it for me now over to "overtime" with scott wapner sara, thanks very much welcome to "overtime." you just heard the bells we're just getting started at post 9 on the new york wall street i will speak to one investor who says he found time in this volatility. the talk of the tape, whether stocks are setting up for into and out of the fed meeting. was today the start of it? sounds crazy given how negative everyone seems to be these days. one well-known cnbc contributor says it could, in fact, be the case