and then you can work from there in terms of whether the overall economy can be resilient against that if powell says sorry, i think we can get unemployment up to 6% and still be hiking rates, obviously, that's not going to be taken well. >> no argument equals trading range. thank you. that's mike santoli. we'll see you tomorrow i'll see everybody back at the desk as well "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," rates keep surging ahead of the fed's big decision this week the ten-year hitting its highest level since 2011 former pimco chief economist paul mcculley will be along to tell us why he thinks the market needs to brace for a nasty fed and more powell pain plus, is the crypto winter about to get colder? bitcoin to a three-month lo and behold the bold car that bitcoin is far from bottoming and later, ford warning on costs and inventories after the bell here. moderna's manic monday and a bullish call on a sector that

has just been hammered this year i'm sarah eisen in for melissa lee. this is "fast money. with me tim seymour, karen finerman, steve grasso and brian kelly. maybe coming to grips that the fed is going to keep raising rates. stocks, after opening solidly in the red, finishing around session highs. it was a very strong final hour of trading the housing sector a snapshot of this delicate balancing act. rates keep rising, pushing mortgage rates to nearly 6.5%. but the home builders actually went higher today. key bank upgraded the sector, saying housing is due for a comeback after suffering mightily this year, and that history dating back to 1963 is the guide. so if housing can adjust to a higher rate environment, can the rest of the market as well the argument was interesting hello. >> welcome >> thank you very much >> it's good to be here. >> nice bangles reference. >> was that a bangles reference? they're having a terrible season

so far which is disappointing. >> and the bangles as well any way, you did that on purpose, didn't you? >> yeah. all about the bangles. >> that was funny. >> so for early pain was the key bank report on housing and there has been a lot of pain in housing. >> there has been a lot of pain. if you look at the relative valuations within the sector, first of all to each other, i think that's really the trade. if you look at pulte relative to lennar, pulte is the one you want to own. but if i look at where the housing stocks have done versus the s&p, they're actually flat to the s&p, which is almost yeomanlike oreowomb man like when you consider when going on like you're talking about performance to their targets they're seeing 22% upside. i bet if you pull analysts around the street, i don't like the interest rate sensitivity. part of the call needs to be really that we're starting to see some peak on mortgage rates. that to me would be an argument that at least i could begin to try to argue around, even though it with australia day when the

ten-yet to, i think close to 11-year highs, when we got above 350. >> what about you, karen >> i agree if rates have sort of maybe popped up, peaked, they ended up off their highs from today so if that's the case, then you can make a case for why the home builders should be doing well. try not to read too much what happened today i feel like positioning around the fed, i kind of feel like it's a game of dodge ball. a lot of people have their back against the wall because they dent want to get beaned by who knows what's coming. if you told me right now what exactly the fed would do and what their language would be, i wouldn't know how the market would react. >> we love that gym here tell me the headline >> and we're also coming off of a week where the s&p was down 5% on partly adjusting to a more hawkish fed. so grasso, i think you're in agreement. too early to get into housing, right, not knowing what the fed is going to do >> yeah, too early to get into housing. tim touched on the mortgage rates. 30-year -- 90% of all mortgages

are attracted to the 30-year mortgage rate. beginning of the year was at 3%. now it's about 6%. so i don't think -- that's the whole debate we're having. if that starts to flatten out, then you could possibly become constructive in housing. but we don't even know how deep or how long the recession is going to last. how can you buy housing if you don't know either? i think it's just starting to feel the pain. the pandemic really did a number for housing. people had second homes. they were working remotely but we're just starting to see supply of homes for sale up 27%. year-over-year, that is. prices are still 43% higher than prepandemic. so, yes, it's too early. and just remember, any recovery in the housing market always happens in a rising rate environment, not for this reason not for battling inflation it's because growth is exploding, and that's not what

we have here >> no. sort of the opposite b.k., diana olick mentioned today was the ninth read in a row, nine months now of weaker home build sent. certainly starting to feel the pain a lot of economists already say the sector is in recession could you be a buyer of any of these stocks on the idea that rates may be topping out >> no, no. >> because they're topping out or because you don't like housing? >> well, for both. one, i don't think rates are topping out. in a period where rates are going to be higher for longer. i think we have -- it's going to be very unusual if inflation actually moderates and then just levels off i think it's a far shot that they get to 2% i think we're more likely to have inflation for the next five years somewhere above 4% so number one, i think rates stay at these levels number two, if ilook at house price indexes, depending on which one you look at, you're still up 14 to 18% year-over-year how can you be at the bottom of

a cycle if prices are still up if you had told me hey, prices are down 18% and you had all these things and maybe work towards the end of the cycle, then yeah, maybe i'd be getting excited about it i think we're just in the first couple of innings of the housing downturn as opposed to the last couple >> so grasso, karen said some of it is funky positioning ahead of the fed. what do you tribute to today's late-day rally final hour, it was really straight up. one thing i thought, not to give myself too much credit, but i did have mike wilson of morgan stanley on the show who was -- -- >> did you get him bullish finally? if you did, big applause. >> he walked back his bearish call little bit. he still expecting the s&p to go down to 3,000, test that low and come up. he said i don't think we're going have a very deep recession. he said i think yields have topped out here. he just expects more pain in the stock market because it's not reflecting the recession and the fact that earnings are going to have to come down. i thought that was actually

sounded a little more bullish. >> yes so i think the reason why the market is rallying is all traders, what we keep doing is saying okay, we saw fed ex have a blowup last week so is that going to change powell's mind? so we keep grasping on this pivot. even though we know the pivot is not happening. so what we're looking for, should be realistic is say maybe we could have a pace pivot where he can say, okay, it's not going 75 to 100 basis points we're going cut that back 50 to 25 that should be the light at the end of the tunnel. but i think people are getting excited thinking powell is going the change his tone this week. >> even if he doesn't change his tone so now the market is pricing in. b.k., a 4.4 terminal rate and the end of the cycle pause in april of 2023 and i think the question, the question for the market is that in is that -- is that peacockishness, or is it going to have to get worse is that terminal rate

expectation going to come higher >> yeah, i think the biggest risk for the market which you're identifying is maybe the pivot never comes. everybody is expecting a pivot the rate market is expecting a pivot. every strategist is expecting a pivot. wilson, who has been spot-on in the market, he is saying hey, maybe rates have moderated here. so that means that the risk that is not priced in is that powell comes out and says listen, this is going to be a long fight. this is going to be a multi-year battle against interest rates. if he comes out and says that, and i don't think he will, but if he does come out and say that, then, yeah, i think you've got a problem. i think that's what the market hasn't priced in everything else, short of only a 50 basis point rise is also. you have to look at the risks are, a formal risk and probably the likely path that we are in a high inflation, high rate environment for multiple years >> and to equities, it's an interesting time, because in

terms of allocation, you've got less than 20% of the s&p with the dividend yield that's below the 2% even at the long end and what you're starting, though, to hear is some sense of where the long end of the curve can begin to price in a fed that's overshot, where you actually might start to see some positioning, especially for long duration type accounts, like insurance companies and pensions and what not but you mention the terminal rate on the april futures, which was at 448 today and that's really the peak of where we are that's moved 48 basis points in the last week and a half. >> the august cpi. >> hot cpi and the hot rhetoric to follow. i guess the sense i have is they still dent know this is coming at a time when the fed has also told you we don't really know. pivot i still believe means less hawkish. it doesn't have to mean pivot. it has to mean less hawkish. >> so finally, what do you do, karen? we don't know how hawkish they're going to get and what's in the market. what should investors do >> i think you ought to own things you feel comfortable

with for me, i'm always long. i got on thing that i'm comfortable with that can withstand definitely some volatile markets, and that's okay one thing i want to add, they don't know what they're going to do they don't know what the inflation rate is going to be. we haven't seen qt really take effect this month i guess it's up to 90 we'll see. it's hard to make multiquarter guesses when the data, when it's so data dependent. >> you sound like a ceo on an earnings call. >> do i? >> the one you want the hear, pulls their guidance. >> yes, i'm the new guide. i always think they should pull their guidance. >> the next guest does not believe the market fully understands the consequences of rising rates paul mcculley, former chief economist, he now teaches at georgetown's mcdonough school of business paul, it's good to see you we've been having this debate about how far the fed goes hard to predict. what's your take >> i think it's a very

interesting debate, and i think it's the right terms of debate, which is what's the term rate going to be and how long are they going to stay there and the marketplace has moved a lot since jackson hole and also since this cpi data. you have a lot of nastiness already priced into the marketplace. and the issue really going forward is at what point will we see the fed stay that they're going slow this down what point are they going to start talking about the notion that we're going to reach a point and stay there for a while. i think that will be good news for stabilizing the fixed income market and the issue for the equity market is going to be whether or not it's going to be a softish landing or a recession. so i'm actually turning a little bit more constructive on the fixed income market. but i think the jury is still out on the equity market because

of this issue of how soft is soft versus hard >> well, powell said he wanted to see pain, or at least we're going see pain at jackson hole, right? when it comes to the economy we know we're not there yet, because the last cpi report showed firmer prices it was sort of surprising on a lot of goods areas, apparel and some of these other places where we expected to see it come down. the key question, paul, how fast does inflation come down from here >> that we don't know. i think it's going to come down pretty sharply on the good side. but we're in the process of this rotation on the consumer from goods to services. and services really reflect a lot of labor pressures on the inflation side so i think it's going to be a mixed bag that you'll see positive disinflation but the service side is going to be sticky it's a difficult sort of time for fed. and i think what chair powell is

going do on wednesday is see the market's ante, because the mark has become more hawkish. but at the same time, i don't think mr. powell is going to up the bet. so i think the fixed income market has it basically right. he will validate what the forward market has done. but i don't think he is going to up the bet on the hawkish side anymore, which could give the overall financial additions some momentary relief >> so paul, to pick up where you left off there, the fixed income market has it right, and the market is higher than the june lows equity market, but the rates are higher than where they were in june, in your mind, is that indicative of a market that is not pricing in headwinds? and i know that you've been

concerned with earnings in the future do you think that the market is not discounting the headwinds to earnings and do you think that rates and the equity market are not aligned and that's indicative of that >> i think there are little bit of tension between the two right now, because the fixed income market has taken mr. powell at his word that his commitment to bringing inflation down is unconditional, and i think the fixed income market says okay, sir, we get that i don't think the equity market is fully embraced it because even if you buy that fixed income market is about right on the terminal rate, to get really bullish on equities, you got to believe that earnings are going to hold up relative to expectations and mr. powell has not promised that in fact, vice chair lyle

brainerd commented recently about the notion there is room for profit margins to contract so in the two markets, have i more confidence that the fixed income market is aligned with where the fed is versus the equity market. it doesn't make me a screaming bear on equities from this level, but on a relative basis, i'm a whole lot more comfortable on the fixed income side than i am on the equities side. >> well, it's karen. thanks for being on. let's say the fed doesn't care where the market goes. in terms of the economy, how much pain in the economy are they willing to take before they maybe abandon their hawkish stance, even though inflation is not fully where they want it to be >> that's the real question. that is the real question. how much pain are they willing to take or put differently, how much for the job market are they willing to see the unemployment rate go up and job creation slow

down to perhaps, you know, less than 100,000 a month are they willing to take that and still maintain a hawkish stance which doesn't necessarily mean higher, but maintaining that plateau. and i'll have to say to myself that in the last couple of months, mr. powell has shown more tolerance for taking pain that i anticipated he would. and that's what i'm expecting him to say on wednesday is i said pain. i meant pain, and we're going to see pain and i think that's going to be reflected in the new summary of economic projections with a very soggy growth rate for next year, and probably a half year or more increase in the unemployment rate so i think the new scp is going to have a distinct stagflationary flavor to it at a

minimum. long answer to your question, i think he is willing to take a fair amount of pain. >> that's a dot plop which is always more confusing than valuable sorry, just to put a bun on this we're not really seeing pain in the jobs market. >> yes. >> we can talk about recession or not it doesn't matter. if you have a job, and people are getting jobs right now, there are millions of job openings, unemployment claims have been down for the last five weeks. so if you're expecting pain for unemployment, we're not seeing it. >> you're absolutely right, sarah, and you and have i talked about it before. the job market has held up amazingly well and when chair powell is talking about pain to main street, it really is about jobs so if you're going to put some ambulance of risk on his rhetoric on wednesday, if he really wants to be nastier than i think he is going to be, he would point to the whole notion that we need to create some slack in the labor market, which means that he's willing to take

a fair amount of pain in the terms of a pretty long string of soggy employment reports, and not pivot, and not pivot. >> that's a lot of pain. pain is nasty. paul mcculley, thank you it's good to talk to you let's trade this b.k. >> yeah, well, i mean, i think you're right we really haven't seen that pain in the economy yet everybody seems to have a job. we haven't seen unemployment tick up. and this to me is the reason why you have this sticky employment. and not only, that we even look back last week with the rail workers were on strike, they got a pay raise. and that's happening globally. so that's why i think, you know, i think we have inflation for a listening period of time you're going to have margins compressed, which is where i would agree. listen, i think stocks probably go lower for the foreseeable future >> all right we're going to find out about crypto, next coming up, the crypto crush. bitcoin dropping today, hovering under $20,000.

but will it go even lower? chart master carter worth breaks down why he sees 15 k in the cards. plus, we're watching shares of ford dropping after hours the company announcing a warning related to supply chain and inflation details. don't go anywhere. "fast money" back in two where innovation keeps pace with imagination and the future arrives daily. viant is pioneering a new approach to media combining ai with human insight. creating new ways to reach customers and new standards of measurement, both on and offline. viant. built for the new open web. built for now. ♪ ♪ i was having relationship issues with my old bank. it was just take, take, take. so i moved to sofi checking and savings. get 2.00% interest,

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welcome back to "fast money. ford shares dropping after closing hours, the automaker warning about higher than expected costs for q 3 and supply chain challenges that will leave thousands of vehicles unfinished they still need the parts. phil lebeau to take us inside this morning they're reiterating guidance, but warning of some issues. >> full year guidance. but this the third quarter, we're seeing the stress in the supply chain coming and hurting ford in terms of what the company expects to make in the third quarter. the company is issuing new guidance it is for an adjusted ebitda of 1.4 to 1.7 they neff gave previous guidance, but the consensus was

for ford to report in the third quarter a profit of $2.98 billion. so this is coming in far below what analysts were expecting they're blaming this on a $1 billion increase in supplier costs. and that is basically the supply chain overall. and there are 40 to 45,000 vehicles that they have built, but they have not delivered. they would deliver these to the dealers who bought them if they had the parts. they expect to deliver them in the fourth quarter so as you take a look at shares of ford, the full-year profit guide remains in place the company expects to deliver the vehicles they expect to be able to absorb the increase in supplier cost and report a profit of 11.5 to $12.5 billion for the full year. they're not changing their full-year guidance but they are saying, look, right now, the supply chain is hurting the company. and this not unusual we've heard this from other automakers we've heard it in aerospace, manufacturing across the board bottom line is this. they are feeling the pinch at ford and what's interesting here,

sarah, i've talked to people at ford these are not chip-related supplier problems. i can't say that enough. this is not because of having a shortage of chips. it's a shortage of parts across the board. and that speaks to the stress for tier 1 and tier 2 suppliers in the auto industry, which is not new. this has been known for several months i talked with somebody just a few months ago when i called them up, ford's warning, who the you think about this who isn't warning? the supply chain is breaking down in certain areas. not across the board. >> i thought it was getting better, phil >> no, it's not. it's not getting better. it's getting better in terms of chip supply. but in terms of the costs and the ability for all suppliers to ramp up their production to the level, whether it's ford or gm or anybody, it's tough for these smaller suppliers, and there are also some tier 1s. they cannot increase they don't have the manpower, the costs are going up, and in

many cases they cannot meet the demand for a variety of reasons. again, it's not across the board, but all you needed were a few here and there, and that's where you see the impact. >> billion cost. phil lebeau, thank you very much let's trade this now tim, you own ford. it's already 42% off the highs. >> i own ford. i own gm if you look at ford on one-year, it's outperformed the s&p by 30%, through good times and bad. we know they had a great run towards the end of last year if you confirm the numbers, 12 billion, you're at 4.2 times where the market cap is right now on 2 '22 numbers this is a company thats is run differently than it has been they're going to free cash flow generative they raise their number. we heard the end of the second quarter about 35,000 incomplete unfinished vehicles. so this doesn't really surprise me and i guess the dynamic is we see that they have pricing power. they're the clear number two in ev and at this valuation, i can sleep at night

i know it's not going to be easy here but again, i think these guys are running the company very differently than they have >> grasso? >> first of all, they all bounced off their june lows, all the car companies. we played a game would you rather, i would rather be in gm. i think they have a little more momentum on their side, sarah, as far as stock price. both names seem to be at a short-term declining they both just bounced but they failed off their recent highs after the june low so i'd probably stay clear until some of the supply chain glut or not glut resolves itself i'd stay out of the spacing and go with the evs. tesla seems to be outperforming right now. >> karen would rather jam too. coming up, crypto cold snap. bitcoin keeps falling, and the tech cams could be pointing to an even bigger drop ahead. the chart master here to lay out why 15 k could be in the cards detail misnext plus, staking off.

look at the airlines soaring into the green today should you be boarding this train? ha ha, we'll break it down very clever writers here you're watching "fast money" live from the market site in times square it's very dark this evineng. we'll be back. >> stormy.

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welcome back to "fast money. look at bitcoin briefly, dipping below 19,000 this morning, hitting its lowest level in about three months the cryptocurrency ended the day back above that level, but the chart master thinks it will not stay there for long. carter worth of worth charting here carter, where is bitcoin going >> well, we shall see, but it's certainly not for the faint of

heart. before looking at the charts, what wie do know topped the sam time the s&p topped last part, early part of this year. it bottomed almost the same day. its bottom one june 18th s&p was june 17th. yet all of the trading since the bottom feels like just a pause before moving lower. let's look at a chart at june and see if we can figure it out. so that's one way to draw the lines. we see that low on june 18th it moves as much as 40% off the low, s&p moving 20 but we're reapproaching that level sort of dangerously, just as certain stocks have if we pull that back further, it's a three-month chart the. >> is-month looks at it in more relief again, we're working into what you call the apex of that formation, which is to say you can't just sit here and go flat. you either come to life in a big way, or you break down we're in the latter camp we think it breaks down. looking at long-term charts, the key level, and everyone knows this is where we are in relation

to the trend line for the past two years, and also the 2017 high which you'll see that on the final chart. what this does is this shows where we are we're at support so to speak it's the 20,000 level plus-minus what we've been backing and feeling here since that june 18th low when we pierced below 20,000, reaching as low as 17. so the fight is on, whether this is going to make it, so to speak, going to survive this, and then head higher, or it's just simply the pause, having dropped 75% before it ultimately goes lower that's my thinking, that we break to the downside. >> got it. carter worth, thank you. let's trade it b.k., of course, over to you what do you think? >> yeah, listen, i'm sympathetic to what carter, first of all, he is the best chartist that i know. >> the chart master. >> the fundamentals. when you look at the fundamentals behind bitcoin, it wouldn't really get cheap until 15,000 and then super cheap like it was

as cheap as it was at the march 2020 lows until about 10,500 so there is a lot of room on the downside before you get some kind of -- >> how do you put -- >> based on address. based on address growth. based on address growth. >> what do you mean? >> we have a proprietary formula that tips us whether it's cheap or expensive that's what i'm talking than, because it's really just network effect if we look at that, and then we look at the macro environment, and carter was right to point out that it's correlated with the s&p 500 and the nasdaq, almost 70% of the time for almost the last year so really, until that breaks, you're basically looking at kind of a double levered etf on the nasdaq futures i think there is a lot of reasons why it should break. it just hasn't yet and so we have to wait until that point >> what about this -- what about these bitcoin short etfs, biti it's up 71% this year.

is that a safe way to go well, safe is maybe the wrong word >> well, yeah, i'm not sure i would say anything about bitcoin is safe. number two, the fact that we're even makes me think maybe were closer to the bottom than we all think so maybe it's a contrary indicator. the only problem i have with these type of things is that it's a levered inverse etf it's based on the cme futures, which are fine but if you're holding it as an equity position in an equity wrapper, you have issues with the role, and it doesn't always correlate with the performance what i would be worried if somebody tries to short bitcoin closer to the bottom than the top, even if they get the trade right because of these futures idiosyncratic problems, you might not actually make money on it they're not a great way to put the trade on. >> karen is waiting for a triple

inverse bitcoin etf. >> that's so my kind of thing. b.k., a question for you going back the what is cheap, and you touched on addresses that's the number of sort of new parties interested or holding a position in bitcoin? what exactly are you talking about? >> yeah. so it's addresses are like w wallets on the bitcoin network i think of them a twitter daily average user, facebook daily average user if you take daily average users and chart it over the price, it's almost an 80% correlation so bitcoin is all about the network effect any currency is about a network effect if you start to see addresses growing at a fast rate, that is adoption of the currency and if you see addresses falling, that is not adoption. that's the exact opposite. and right now, what we're seeing is addresses falling and sentiment falling at the same time one of those two needs to

reverse. >> so what's fair value in that model? >> well, so fair value, interestingly, is above 20,000 but it usually stays only at fair value for a little bit of period of time and you don't get much of an uptick from fair value you usually want to buy it when it's cheap. >> got it. all right, coming up we got to talk moderna because it dropped hard with some of the other vaccine makers today as president biden declares the pandemic over. what's the next move for this biotech trade? plus, some high energy option shares of one oil stock up nearly 20% since mid-july options traders are fueling up for even more games ahead. the name when "fast money" returns. get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back rightft ts. aerhi

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welcome back to "fast money. a buzz kill on moderna it was the worse s&p 500 performer today, down 7% the move coming a day after president biden said the pandemic is over he said it in an interview with "60 minutes. moderna not the only vax-related

stock to fall today. bion tech, novavax, pfizer all firmly in the red. j&j and merck also dragging down the dow. karen, a 7% plus drop for moderna on biden saying the pandemic is over does that make sense >> yes and no. if you have people that are just in it for the pandemic and they're like it's over, next trade, i guess it makes sense. to me, i haven't owned moderna it's a pretty expensive. i know pfizer was down today on the same news. i know b.k., on our midday call, you were extremely skeptical that that was the reason for it. but i like america as well, which is down today. i like bristol-myers, abbvie, lilly. in a market where valuations aren't so stretched. i'm there. >> on one hand we don't need president biden to tell us the pandemic is over everybody else has been saying that in our life but if you're in these stocks

looking for recurring revenue stream of the booster shots and the argued the booster shots and the federal government changes its posture around how it's going to push that out, maybe then it's material >> maybe you shouldn't be trading stocks either. these things are down for $500 to 125 come on. these are the headlines that grinds my gears, right it purports to give you new information. there is no new information here if you're the one that sold the stock today on the news, you're probably the last one to do it on this news i don't know you got to have a new catalyst to get these things going. i just find these headlines to be useless. >> i'll say real quick on moderna, this company is almost $20 billion of cash on their balance sheet with a 55 billion market cap you do the math. they could spend it on anything. they're a biotech company. but it's not expensive in terms of an asset multiple in terms of the spike vax and some telephone numbers we've just gotten from them, highly cash creative. i'm not jumping into moderna, but this is a company to me there is a free cash flow element to their business right

now as long as they stay away from some bad acquisition. >> i'm so glad you mentioned this michael yee, who nailed this call, hasn't bought into the hype around moderna and the recurring vaccines, he said when it gets below 40 billion market cap, it's about 50 right now, then it starts to look interesting because they do have other projects in the pipeline related to flu and even cancer which has proven itself. american airlines leading the names in the green southwest, united, jetblue and delta all getting a lift of 2 to 4% yet the jets etf still down 25% from a year ago. can the run continue, steve? >> yes, so now we're switching from people wanting experiential vacations coming out of the pandemic to corporate travel returning. and if you see those experiential people getting back on planes because they no longer have to worry about testing. but that has been the story for

the last couple of weeks i think this is more about maybe a knee-jerk reaction to the headline but i'm focused more on international travel returning, corporate travel returning oil is lower that's a tailwind for these -- for the airlines i would play it with ual and i would play it with delta i don't like the domestic airlines in this environment i think that the catch-up or the real outperforming trade are those international plays. >> and also business, you said, which is coming back, which could be a catalyst, and people have been waiting for it but it's coming at a time where we're now worried about the recession and businesses are starting to cut or maybe pause hiring and that sort of thing. >> i think the things you worry more about with the airlines as business comes back online, are the airlines going to throw too much capacity at this. and historically, this has been the problem with investing in airlines wolf research had an interesting note some time last week where they talked about the prisoner's dilemma in the airline space what's good for one isn't good for the group. the airlines that have raised capacity aggressively

historically, their multiple has expanded they've been rewarded in the market but again, airlines raising capacity into a lower demand environment overall would be scary. you mentioned will the good news around the jets continue who knows. >> are you a jets fan? >> no. giants that's why i brought it up >> you know where i stand. when we come back, we are looking at some energy options one name on a tear these last few months and traders are hoping that this run is just getting started. we'll share the details next look at that chart and throughout hispanic heritage month, we are celebrating our cnbc teammates and contributors here is the ceo of the hispanic association on corporate responsibility >> we know that corporate america has a lot of work to do to make sure that we are fully inclusive of latinos, particularly on corporate

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welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of schlumberger it is continuing to climb today, adding to its rally over the past few months. the stock is up more than 24% since mid-july and options traders could be betting this name pumps even higher got to be a pop. got to be a pun. mike khouw with the action what do you see? >> schlumberger traded nearly four times their average daily call volume today. that high number the result of activity on the 46 strike calls

expiring in october. those expire on october 21st, which i point out because that's probably when we're going to be expecting this company to report their third quarter earnings over 55,000 of those traded for about 31 cents buyers of those calls will be making quite a bullish bet given the stock's 39 price as of today's close. right now those premiums are also suggesting pretty big moves in general if you happen to own the stock or are thinking about it, maybe call spreads would be a better way to play it in my view. >> got it. let's trade it. >> been long for a long time we refer to schlumberger as a technology company they're the most innovative company. they just deal with code nine, they have an enterprise data system utilized by the company this is cash flow accretive. i talk about this all the time for the gas and oil sec sector there is only one way which drilling activity has to go. and i think these companies are doing it a little different.

>> they're all up here today but schlumberger not as many as others. >> it's underperformed halliburton, and i think it's best of breed. >> for more "options action," tune in to the full show that is friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. coming up, luxury update shares of ralph lauren jumping in today's session after the company laid out some big revenue targets. what the ceo told us about the company's growth plan, next, when "fast money" comes right back

welcome back here is a sneak peek at the cramer cam i love this. jim is talking with the ceo of intuit you can catch the full exclusive interview at top of the hour on a special "mad money." he is live in san francisco. it's a cramer cam -- >> you've never seen the cramer cam before >> it's been a while >> this is great stuff. >> very cool you've made it when there is a cam. shares of ralph lauren up 3% today after the luxury retailer outlined strong financial targets. i spoke with investor patrice luve about the direction of the

business listen >> we have done a lot of work on our supply chain diversification, localization, platforming, digitization. so much so, and i mentioned this to investors earlier today, i really believe our supply chain is a competitive advantage we've seen that through covid, both the strength and agility of our supply chain there is a lot of question about inventory. we feel like we're well-positioned going into the holidays on inventory. >> so is ralph lauren the latest sign of strength in luxury retail, karen? i was very excited to talk to you about this because the stock has underperformed he said there is no slowdown in the business anywhere, even in china very bullish he said they have 5% of revenues they don't have an inventory problem like others. >> first of all, good for getting him to talk. >> i've been working on it for five years. >> mission accomplished. there is a lot of great things to hear. and yet it doesn't translate into a valuation that is anywhere close to that you know, it's in some ways it's

a luxury company in other ways, a lot of their revenue is on some lower margin stuff. but i mean, the middle p/e 6, 7 multiple seems unusually low. capri has a similar problem. i don't understand why and then the luxury con gglomert story of a capri or ralph lauren isn't translating at all they've come out of the pandemic well this was a pretty bullish investor day i don't know what's going to make these multiples trade up. but i'm long capri it's similar to this and a little similar is tapestry they all trade this way. i'm not sure when the market will believe that this cash flow is enduring. >> i don't know. grasso, is the global recession area concerns finally taking a toll on the luxury consumer, even though the ceos aren't talking about it >> no. it's actually not taking a toll on it. the problem is what you -- the way you led into that question

everyone thinks if we're going into a global recession or a slowdown, the first thing to get hit is going to be luxury. and that's the -- that's the opposite of what actually happens. luxury always outperforms. so when you look at rl, judging on their guidance, it implies that 35% eps in the next two years. the next two years so if you look at that historically, the stock trades at 12 to 15 times eps. and you come up with a price of over $400, stock closed below $100 so if you want to put it away for yourself, and you're looking for a much more to the upside, i'm long capri as well i bought capri as a high teenager it's $45 or so so i agree with karen. what i'm looking for is a higher blended multiple there as well but i'd be a buyer of luxury i'd be a buyer of rl

i'm holding my capri >> bk? you're nodding >> well, listen, i think the one thing that's interesting both about ralph lauren and ford actually is both of those ceos are saying nothing about a destruction in demand. yet we have a federal reserve that is trying to solve a supply chain problem with a demand destruction. so if you actually believe the fed is going to accomplish their goal and get demand destruction, then this is probably not a great buy, or capri, or frankly many things. but i think that's the one thing that the market might be missing here is that you haven't had the demand destruction yet >> no. the luxury consumer is holding up remarkably well luxury a cmecs osarthe spots. up next, your final trades when we come right back on "fast we come right back on "fast money. ♪♪ welcome to life in the new open web.

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it is time for the final trade. let's go around the horn grasso >> stem, st-t-e-ms-t-e-m. i've been long this a long time. it's really starting to outperform stay with it >> b.k.? >> for me, it's uranium.

uranium etf. ura, one piece of the energy crisis puzzle. >> tim >> sarah, thank you for joining us you're a hazy shade of winter. ford motor company >> nice bang s reference. for me, on the heels of that slb io action," th my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. wel welcome to a very special west coast edition of "mad money. other people want to make friends. i want to make you money my job is to entertain and teach you 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. we want to see the future.