it. >> it has gain scariy and bearish. thank you, brenda. >> thank you for having me a quick final look at the markets right now. we are in the red. we will see what the fed has to say about all of this, whether mr. novogratz is correct on this meantime, we will get you answers tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. good tuesday morning welcome to stock on the street cramer is at 1 market in san francisco. premarket is a little soft coming off the late afternoon bounce on monday going to be a busy couple of days for central banks hot inflation data out of germany and japan. the fed waiting game futures are lower as they digest the corporate view on the macro. ford shares are going to be

down in the early going. they warn of extra $1 billion in supply chain costs it suffered during the third quarter and swan song. shuttering two tech-focused spacs after not finding anyone to acquire >> let's begin with the markets, though, and the fed, jim expectations we got sweden now with 100 basis points it will be a waiting game all around the world >> sweden playing catchup what's important, carl, is the two-year treasury which is flirting with 4. the previous guest was talking about saying nothing that was compelling but something that yields 4% in two years if you can boy something 98.07,

it is better than owning the average stock in the s&p >> you believe that right now? >> well, 4%, i think if you have new money you can beat that in yield, which you can in the oils i think it's a tough sell. that is one of the reasons i didn't trust yesterday's rally you need to see a piece of paper go back to 3.5 at 3.5, you would think, wow, i made a big mistake versus a typical yield on, say, verizon you know a lot of yields are from stocks that are big stocks are going down. and the difficult deposited is giving you a bigger yield. that's not the way you want to get more income. >> no, it is not yeah the appreciation of the yield is just incredible, the movement in that two-year in particular.

you know, jim, where do you go does this pull investors to the fixed income markets we pointed out a number of times, and it's important to do so it is important for people in stocks and bond funds as well given the mood and what that has done to the prices but does this yield, call it 4% on a two-year, and the three-and the ten-year well above half now. pull money that might otherwise end up in the equity markets >> the ten-year is not real value. if the fed keeps raising rates, you will lose money that piece of paper you can be wrong for days and then you'll be right and get your money back. this thing is relentless the run to 4 is probably the most punishing run i can recall for the two-year remember, you're talking about a piece of paper that was like your checking account.

now it's juicy when someone sits down with a financial adviser and says what should i buy, they say let's park it in the two-year and figure out what the fed is going to do say they take it to 75 basis points well, that piece of paper is going to go down in other words, the yield will go still higher. i think it's something to watch. it's just so competitive and i keep coming back to something i said yesterday to david, and david seemed a little quizzical about it i think the fed wants your portfolio lower, so you are not making as much money i think the fed wants you to go back to work >> that's interesting, jim microsoft with a little div hike here the percentage of the s&p yielding above the two-year now 16% of the s&p, the lowest since '06. jim, yesterday, jpmorgan who has been relentlessly bullish, better than expected earnings growth is reminding that equities represent an asset

class that offers protection against inflation. as long as these earnings hold in >> i like what lee cooper man said from goldman sachs forget the averages. there are good situations in the marketplace. one of the things he mentioned was the dramatic overweight in the oils some of the oils have changed their strategy they are just returning capital 13%, 14%, 15%. that makes sense to me what you just outlined, carl, is too glib and too positive. >> jim, one thing we have been talking about was your interview -- they are all related to your interviews friday was fedex monday you had home depot. and now you've got intuit. the last two failing to ratify the gloomy view from what fedex told you on friday let's take a listen to this. >> when we look at those elements now versus even prepandemic, they're quite healthy. they're healthy because unemployment is low

>> right >> cash balances have generally been strong for consumers along these times. now -- but inflation is real people are paying more for food, more for gas, for rent the reality is we do need to get this environment under control we just have to be very thoughtful in how we do it so we don't go from strong unemployment to have to high unemployment that is ultimately what impacts consumer spending. >> we're fortunate we have a slightly different consumer. you saw the consumer numbers were up, retail sales up last night. we have a resilient customer our customer tends to have strong income. they tend to be homeowners >> jim, do you think -- as the fedex interview gets more and more in the rear-view mirror, that it is less systemic >> look, i think the fedex -- i still believe 30% of the problems inflicted on fedex by

fed fedex. 70%. ted decker at home depot, the customers are pros, weighty, home homeowners i found it incredible that the small business person is still doing well everyone admits to inflation, including ted decker everybody. i know lumber goes up and down in the end, a lot of products they sell have gone up in price. david, here's what i see i think jay powell has someone listen to the interviews and comes back and says, you know what, there are so many people doing well and there'speople have jobs everyone wants to lower inflation. there was a time in these interviews where people said, look, i don't know what they're talking about with inflation now they say, look, i hope you can lower inflation and not have

as many layoffs. what they are saying is there will be layoffs if the fed goes too far even if the economy is strong that's what people are worried about. >> if they go too far the economy won't be strong because there will be layoffs. >> no doubt about it. i come back and say jay powell wants you to feel less secure. he wants to find the people who left the workforce i don't know where they are. >> i am still somewhat quizzical about this theme you have been sounding the last couple of days the idea that somebody who was working on an assembly line at an auto plant somehow has enough money that they have stayed out of the workforce and are now going to come back to the workforce? i'm not following this reasoning here, jim. >> i'm getting it from people like jim farley.

and we will talk about ford. a lot of hourly workers didn't come back. we're trying to figure out where they are jay powell said they're at home, they have a lot of savings and their home is paid for and they're sitting this one out i think two or three-year high ate his is too much. people don't have that much money. if you speak about where the hourly workers went, they keep saying they don't need to work how long can you not need to work before you say i do have to join the labor force and that is going to keep wage increases down >> yeah. they've got to make job hopping less economical. but i don't know if you saw amex yesterday, jim, hiring another 1,500 workers in tech mostly in the united states. and they've already hired nearly 4,000 this year. >> voracious hiring. and lots of -- it still remains

the strongest part of the economy. it was interesting when fedex spoke they said the reason packaging is doing so well is people keep going places we know this is the nine wedding per year blockage where we're not seeing the acquisitions we did. david, i think what's so interesting about amazon, how do they pick up more prime members? watching football on thursday night. again, it's not because there's more shopping. it's because there's more viewing. that does matter >> no doubt. it does. and it's an interesting conversation to have at some point as well about the power of sports, the importance of sports to the bumming, keeping people there, the increase in rights fees and what that will look like, and the success in the early days here, jim, of sports on streaming with the nfl. i know we want to get to ford, which we've been looking at, carl >> jim mentioned it.

the billion dollar hit to increase supplier costs and parts shortages. they keep the full ebitda guide constant maybe it's timing with the number of cars they were able to get off the lot. >> i think it's very -- i don't want to see aoe theorial but they have 40,000, 50,000 of the best margin trucks and larger vehicles that they don't have the name plates for it it's not semiconductor it's absolutely not semiconductor. it's other parts that are not even tech. it's actually things like if you have a bronco, like my daughter has. you don't have the name bronco we are seeing bizarre shortages that are one-off the billion dollar charge is very similar to what the other auto companies are doing suppliers are basically making agreements with these different companies like ford. and there's a true up where you

end up having to pay the supplier more because of the price. my checks with ford are very interesting. not a single bit of decline in price. nothing. so, once again, you have wages going up people keep talking about the railroads and how much they had to give. you do not have parts coming down the only decline in inflation i've got was from a company i often talk about that you think doesn't exist which is dutch bros >> i watched some of your internet lost night with doug brose. >> we'll disclose we're buying it the incredible amount of money the franchise makes over a small format they do have some -- it's not as bad as job hopping

this is a gigantic chain that exists far north of tennessee. and i just don't think -- they were on the last time i spoke with them and, man, they were talking about inflation. they are not talking about runaway inflation, which is a godsend, but everybody else is talking about it >> this german ppi number is insane europe has some issues, that's for sure, jim. the spac king pulling back the decision to unwind two of the spacs. nike, tesla, paypal, etsy. 'lta about the eagles last night with jim after a break

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spac king unwinding two of his spacs. he brought many companies public through that vehicle one of the main forces behind sort of the broad embrace in the capital markets we saw some two years ago and the speculation that followed, as many of our viewers may know, given how often we've talked about it, you usually buy the shares of a spac that goes $10 per share. the spac or the sponsor has roughly two years to find a deal in which you get an opportunity as a shareholder to essentially

vote on or get a redemption if you vote in favor. if you don't find a deal, you get the money back you can ask for an extension at least for two of his spacs, he's not doing that. he is unwinding to not a big surprise of course because time is going by here if you look at the broader spacs, there are still -- this is the numbers shocking. 550 are still looking for a deal it is almost laughable the idea that they will be able to find one. 550. some are smaller they raised 100 million bucks. they might have a pipe that gets them to a larger number. still, the idea that they are going to be successful, highly unlikely in this current environment. 113 liquidations so far. we still have a pipeline of 164 that still want to come public they still want to come public

at $10 a share to give themselves two years to look for a deal we have 20 that will be liquidated in less than 30 days. in other words, they're coming to an end without finding a i deal we will see a lot more of that as you might expect given it is start anniversary or two-year anniversary for many that is a look at why, in part, you may not find a deal. and if you do, your shareholders may not love it. post back which looks at after the deal has closed, how has the stock performed. now, to be fair, many ipos of the same vintage have not performed well either. but you're down over 60% if you bought however, you are you are up big like mr. paul. the promotes that many of the sponsors get for a fraction of

the market value obviously that the investors are paying, you know, either class a, class b and the warrants here's a quick look, for example, at his spacs that he backed that are out there in the current market with we can take a look at some of them. virgin galactic. he sold out of most of that. open door down yesterday in part because things don't look like they are trending well in that business 16.28. clover health. sorry for the misspelling. 17 million shares for 20 ground. and sofi you can look at some of the charts for these look where they are. none are anywhere near 10. you can seeiso phi the best performer. that's still down some 40% from where it was he did appear at our conference in 2021. he has been one of the, as i've said, great promoters of his time you've got to give him that. a lot of other things, too this is what he had to say at

the time >> i'm going to get a lot of credit when things go up and blame when things go down. we have to take a step back and say we are one year in it will take years to play out so i would love for those same people to rewrite that article in three years and five years and see what it says >> what do you think it will say in three years or five years, jim? >> yeah. david, there was a fellow -- he was, i tangentially related to him, p.t. barnum there is a sucker born every minute people who buy the spacs are p.t. barnum. the fact that there are still 164 to do. the fact that there's 505 i'm not calling it fraud because

that is a technical term i'm just saying you have been fooled over and over again there will be spacs that make money. sometimes you hit. you have a five and a 6 and you hit a face card. for the most part, i'm going to say it, this is a rigged deal against people who watch the show >>, no the terms on many spacs have changed, certainly for those going public they are nowhere near where they were in this heavy period. they went and did deals, obviously open door. remember he talked about the benefits of open door. that said, if you were in one of these spacs, you went at 10 and went liquidated at 10, you're flat that is well better than the stock market >> look, i'm getting 4% when it comes to two year. just want to go back to the idea that this was just a terrible thing that happened to individual investors one of the things that happened

with the sec they do disclosure. they can't say, and don't do these. i know we did. you talked endlessly about the idea that these are terrible so easy to lose money in the s&p for a brand-new way to lose money. this is so cynical again, extremely ill-advisedfo anyone to take advantage of this there will be people who say, jim, did you not see the so-and-so made money there's always somebody that makes money. but this is like -- this was just perpetrated on individuals. i'm so angry about this. the arrogance of these people. i hope when they go to the supermarket people look and say i don't want anything to do with that person. literally jump the wire. there's only two people. i would go to an eight-person line in the supermarket. >> well, the money was sloshing around, jim.

people had nothing but time. hard to put us back in the frame of town. >> thank goodness for jay paul i really dislike the people who did this >> don't forget cnbc's alpha, meeting with policymakers and the best investors to register go to cnbc events.com/delivering-alpha. let's get to this opening bell in sev mut enines

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numbers especially out of germany overnight. some rapidly -- almost hastily scheduled refer endums in the donbas region of ukraine cramer's mad dash ahead of the opening bell in just a moment.

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all right. quick mad dash before we get to opening bell this stock -- or company has $170 billion market value but is down 30% for the year. we are talking jim, about -- >> nike. 28 times earnings. a great piece today. downgrading from buy to whole. you had a rally in nike. you keep getting the rallies then people who downgrade it why? china just can't be made up by the united states. and what tells me yesterday about why this was a phony rally, a stock like nike is up really big no reason whatsoever you need a reason. we didn't get it downgrade. >> guys, let's get the opening

bell here. and cnbc realtime exchange nuveen 35 years of listing clothes and funds at the nasdaq. sas analytics platform jim, watching the two-year getting close to 4%. and of course yesterday along with the 10-year hitting multiyear highs it will be a force of continued pressure. >> it is a proxy for what the fed is going to do as the two-year limes, the yield climbs to four, that is indicative of people feeling it is not going to stop at .75. and only if you buy that piece of paper now, you will not be the guy who just has it in cash. cash will trade higher

i think there's a lot of people who say why should i buy a single stock because maybe i'm going to get five i think this piece of paper has to stop going up in yield where we have an honest rally. it could happen, though, if the fed says, you know what, we're going to wait but until we see actual signs of inflation. other than commodity inflation, carl, i don't see the weakness that i want. >> a long list of lumber, copper, oil, gold, iron, freight. you're right about housing and wages. it's where we are. interesting to get the journal piece yesterday by tim pimerose. he said, look, i'm going to make this as plain as possible, we are not done yet. >> and we have been suffering in the equity markets ever since more or less i for get if it's three or four

weeks this friday. but, yeah, that was very clear it's interesting, of course, that he did choose to make himself even clearer in case we were missing the message, carl >> jim, you mentioned china and the hopes at least that mccal may start to loosen up the hong kong leader says he is looking for an orderly opening, maybe changing rules on hotel quarantine sands at the top today >> it has been abyss mal i listen to people come on the network and they are doing great. everything goes right for them god love them. we bought wynn i buy stocks, some of which go down how do they get everything right? how do people bat 1,000? >> nobody bats 1,000, jim. you know that. >> no. i hear them come on. they're betting 1,000.

does trout say, hey, these guys are amazing. can they play for the mets, these people >> as you well know, jim, you know, we bring on lots of billionaire investors. but realm of them, their greatest strength is not in investing. it's in raising the money. bringing the money in and promoting. that is a very important component of having a successful career on wall street. >> i've got to start doing that. unfortunately my politics are public. >> yeah, they are. >> are you getting defensive here what >> no. no well, buying stocks like humana and drug stocks. i have stocks like wynn that were bad and i think -- a short wynn. i was long wynn. basically, david, i'm not in the promote business but if i were, holy cow. i could just say the only stock

i own is wynn, and i bought it yesterday. >> a lot of laggers today are research-specific. deutsche, paypal at susquehanna, warehouser, b&a. they are all downgrades and on the loser list >> this market is analysts way too bullish. western digital, every single day, has gotten worse. pay balance they have a division braintree that is basically lowering their gross margin. i think i just saw comp cast in that list, david i don't know if you just saw that >> yeah. jpmorgan on comcast is tough they reiterate the neutral at a 45 target, david they take q3 down from flat to

minus 10k. despite some of these better capital returns. household formation is a sticky issue. >> it is it is still sort of uneven coming out of the pandemic that's sort of a new low for our parent company stock is down, as you know, 32% plus the last 12 months -- excuse me. looking at the wrong name. yeah, down 33% year to date. you know, for comcast the challenges are obviously two-fold you've got this side of the business and challenges perhaps in the ad market and/or as well cable networks overall then the growth of dtc and how much you are going to spend. to carl's point and the focus of this research piece is how much competition is there for broadband. and is there competition from the likes of t-mobile and even verizon in terms of using their

5g service and creating an alternative delivered to the house wirelessly unclear. it seems to be eating away to a certain extent t-mobile one of the few outperformers amongst these connectivity companies but cam cast shares getting hit again, jim you talked about it a bit yesterday as you were going off on disney. we were sort of discussing comcast, which is -- has been a very poor performer so far >> i think you've got to come up with a new business. by the way, that's not something desperate. i remember during the period when i was watching you and it was incredible that deal came together and the deal, just remember, was considered to be almost impossible to do so, david, an acquisition that is not anti-competitive maybe even in, say, messaging with

tell co, that would work >> yeah. our company does have a history of course of doing deals the latest was the sky deal. comcast not able to pry fox away from disney. but did get sky. and there is always that possibility. you're right to mention anti-trust to a certain extent and a question to what you can do the old time warner cable deal was turned down. what would be allowed by the regulators in terms of getting larger in a horizontal sense and is there something to be done with the content assets in some way through a spin-off with another company to create scale in direct to consumer which isn't quite there yet. does the family want to maintain control in such a potential transaction. it's not clear we're near anything electronic arts was real real consideration of that deal. it did not get anywhere near the

finish line. but when you do talk about our parent company comcast you have to think about the possibility of deals the company was made on that ability to pry amazingly enough, at&t broadband out of the old at&t this is going back many years. we're talking about the michael armstrong years. that was a key deal. >> well, david, you know that if comcast could do something in fixed wireless, the justice department would lessen. they want more competitors it's clear to me if comcast would do something to have a competitor to t-mobile, verizon, and at&t, the government would love that. so let's not leave that off the table. the idea of a pro competitive acquisition, it could happen for comcast. >> by the way, both comcast and charter are competing vigorously

in the wireless market you see at the end the spectrum ads, for example that is potentially helping the consumer guys, good jumping off point for me in terms of talking antitrust. we have an important story which is namely that the government is lost the department of justice blocked united health care's ability to buy change health care they are in the information services, helping understand kind of billing and patient resources and a lot of different things the deal is going to happen. and of course, as you might expect, change health care stock is moving up judge said i don't see it. it was trying to block a vertical deal. and that has always proved to be difficult for the government think at&t and time warner you can see the reaction there the doj put a statement out a moment ago saying, we respectfully disagree with the court's decision and are reviewing the opinion closely to

evaluate next steps, protecting competition access to affordable health care is of the utmost importance to the antitrust division they could appeal. they could even, in fact, you know, seek an injunction from an appeals court, not allowing the deal to go forward the companies wait 10 days, see, most likely close in the face of a potential appeal any of other deals impacted. unh in a deal to buy a nursing care, uncg you have signify health/cvs deal people wondering about that as well would doj or the government try to block any of these deals? and even the amazon deals. irobot got a second request. unclear what the implications there are. maybe the vac consume goes around your house and sees

things, reports back to amazon maybe you need a new couch, the rug is not looking too good. 1 medical is another one jim, we talked a great deal about m&a being heightened regulatory scrutiny at the doj, ftc. but companies may be willing to go to court and, as is the case here, win. this ruling came a bit sooner than we anticipated. >> i have to admit i was surprised at this. i told you i felt antitrust could prevail. there are many judges who are very pro business. and you're right, david. they don't favor anything t that -- or linum at ftc said we have a history of antitrust

being active and the judiciary sometimes at odds so it was just a really good call how did it happen they drew someone in the judiciary who basically said, are you kidding me, come on. let's have mergers how many are pro merger do you think? >> it really does depend on the case too in this case people watching closely tell me the government's arguments and their opinion were flawed and were not, were not particularly effective because it was outside and this is the key for the doj. they are outside the traditional arguments that have been made in terms of anti competitive deals. when you argue against a competitive deal, it's not horizontal you're not taking market share and just putting it together we will have to see on a case-by-case basis but right now price may be more of an issue than regulatory.

i don't want to in any way minimize, carl, the impact that the ftc and doj's aggressive stance happens >> given arm, atvi and figure ma could this be a record quarter for m&a. they got blocked i'm only halve joking, i think >> microsoft and activevision. you do have sony being very aggressive and pushing their case both here and he eu we'll have to see. each deal on its own merits. but companies may be willing to just say i'm going to go to court because i can win. >> and i have the time and the patience jim, on amazon really quick before we get to pasani. today morgan stanley reiterates the overweight

the nfl thursday night game, record number of new signups in a three-hour period. it's clearly all being done by the fact they have eyeballs in football >> a lot of people felt they paid 13 billion for nfl. that was a big overpay when i look at these numbers you would say, hey, we made it back in one game. pretty amazing really good. amazon is down, of course. s&p. everything is down it's like, all right, take everything down. we're dealing with a market where it is so binary. there's great news at amazon there's great news in microsoft with the div hike. people say, i don't care about that don't you know about the two-year most people selling don't know this thing is called the two-year they're like what's a two-year it's getting overdone. it's not there yet the fed can say something very negative but the idea that amazon stock is down is totally because of the two-year

that was a big win for amazon. david, you know that people in regular broadcast felt that amazon overpaid for that deal. >> yeah. i think it's a key issue obviously the nfl the most valued property. what do you do do you review with linear cable providers or do you consider going with the streamers in some way. streamers are able to incorporate sports, news to some extent it doesn't hold people in but it keeps them p. is it so robust the bundle unwinds so quickly? >> it really is incredible double-header games left night it's all about making people feel like i've got to sign up for, in this case, disney plus, the eagles game, espn. people can't get enough of pro

sports carl, the draw of professional sports, and football in particular, is amazing don't forget what's driving it, gambling the companies themselves don't seem to realize what they've got. it's a gold mine they don't seem to want to mine it >> the upsets and the comebacks don't hurt runs in for two scores, jim. last four games 100 for 131. it's an exciting game. they're putting points up. >> roseman he goes nothing better than winning a game and sipping foss for row to celebrate mezcal his wife is a partner with my wife lisa.

howie, relentlessly promoted >> really nice we are down, but we're still holding monday's lows. let's get to bob. >> jim's right the two-year is a proxy for what the fed is doing, and it's just killing us take a look at the s&p two days. this is another day, another failed rally 20 points at the close yesterday. boom all the way back down again here if you would have bought at the close yesterday, you're losing again. we have these failed rallies take a look at the sectors today. we had a great rally mosaic doing well. down again today tech, most big caps down you see not much outperforming health care, held up pockets of it, have held up, again, down today. let me just show you freeport. floundering around for a couple of months now. it went from $28 to $30 yesterday, freeport. and it's down just about a dollar today so there you get an idea of no

ability to put any kind of rallies together, essentially, just come right back down. the conundrum is very simple right now. we may have peak inflation, may or may not but we don't have peak hawk is ishness. it's not clear right now we don't know how long inflation will persist all this talk doesn't mean anything it keeps moving. the target keeps moving. we don't have enough to make a determination right now. i was very heartened, and kudos to jim for getting the right interviews in the wake of the apocalyptic comments talking to jim, consumers strong despite inflation, home depot ceo, our consumer, do it yourself, pro doing resilient. amex spoke last week and said

international spending was higher q3. i don't see anything close to the apocalyptic comments that fedex had. let's see what nike says nike will report next week on the 29th we did get the barclay's downgrade to 110 most continue to have a buy on nike look at this chart it's a disaster this year. in fact, it's the third worst performer in the dow it's down 35% this year. maybe intel was a worse performer this year in the dow salesforce probably was number two. nike was number three in terms of the worst performers this year there you go walgreens boots alliance we will see. cue doughs at least for barclay's for downgrading. on buybacks, we got numbers from s&p global, we had preliminary

numbers a couple weeks ago a little bit lower than first quarter because a lot of banks strangely did not do as much buy backs as people thought. $1 trillion for the 12-month record to june alphabet, microsoft, meta. even exxon was a pretty big buyback company last quarter carl, back to you. >> thank you very much, bob pisani. as we go to break, let's check out the bond report and see how treasuries are faring. two-year continues to flirt with 4. overall, dow is down a percent all s&p sectors are red. vix near 27. only 20 or so names on the s&p are in the green

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the number of sectors with some upside this morning, definitely limited we talked about some casinos on

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jim, what's on tonight >> i would like to interview the two-year they're not talking. i have nvidia, johnson & johnson, and marc benioff. if i can get the two-year to call me back, i'll drop them. >> we'll see you tonight, "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time. dow down 370 s&p 3854

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(vo) make it even smarter. we call this enterprise intelligence. good tuesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." got some weakness today. it remains to be seen if we revisit monday's lows. certainly the warning from ford about inflation doesn't help neither does the very hot ppi in germany and cpi in japan. >> that's where we're going to start. we are 30 minutes in the trading session. three big movers we're watching, starting with ford, getting

crushed. warning quarterly earnings would take a hit it is the latest industrial company to preannounce shows shares are down 10% right now. change health care is rallying after a federal judge ruled against the justice department's anti-trust group to $13 billion acquisition of that company. you can see change is up 7%. unitedhealth down 1.5%. finally, we will end with macy's announcing a new partnership with kylie jenner's namesame beauty brand, kylie, featuring a holiday collection rolling out next month macy's shares are down 1%. cnbc is out with a new fed survey marking down average 2022 outlook for the s&p, this for the sixth straight time. steve liesman has the details. steve? >> good morning, david the outlook for stocks amid expectations from sharp rate hikes from the fed are still

dark the more likely message the fed is going to hike and hold here, take a look here the end of 2022 looking at 3953. 2.5% higher than we are right now. under the circumstances that would not be a bad outcome 4310, that would be 12% higher not a bad outcome. again, you can see the markdowns continuing through 2022, maybe a little more level than they had been in the past the ten-year,.5 -- 3.55, ending 2333 these have been continuously ratcheted upward along with where the market has gone. here's the expectation, 75 basis point expected from the fed to be announced tomorrow. peak rate at 4.26, 40 basis points higher than it had been, peak rate reached in march 2023. now the idea of hike and hold is taking hold with the fed expected to stay at that peak

rate for as many as 11 months. recession probability around where it's been, 52% the only upside from all these continued downside revisions is that respondents are less likely to see stocks as overvalued although they don't rate them as cheap. we asked them relative to your outlook for the economy and earnings, where stocks, 31% say they're low -- sorry, 31% say they're about right. the high now 69%, now 50%. stocks see stocks more reasonably valued. we have risk/reward ratio we calculate which says what is the 10% upside or downside and we take the net of that and it's five months. it had been minus 14 that would be a sense things were more likely to come down. much depends on the fed gives

tomorrow could be a green light for equities i think the more likely message, morgan, is hike and hold morgan >> okay. steve, stick around. stocks are falling ahead of another likely rate hike from the fed. warning signs might be going too far. here's guggenheim partner scott minerd talking his outlook. >> they're going to push it until something breaks i think the break will probably come through, you know, equity prices but could come in another place. it could come in the emerging markets. you know, eventually this will end in tears >> here to discuss michael yoshicani. could this end in tears? >> yeah, i suppose so. that's kind of a dramatic way to say that it's going to be a tough time, but i think that the fed is doing the right thing at this point i'm a little less optimistic that we're going to be able to

avoid a recession. i just saw steve's report at 52%. we think there's a probability high probability of recession and we think that's why the interest rate spikes we're seeing right now by the federal reserve may start to slow down in the fourth quarter, first quarter, because i think the economy will soften pretty significantly. >> is it fair to say you're in the hike and hold camp >> i am in the hike and hold camp, yeah i'm not only in the hike and hold camp, if the federal reserve continues to tighten the way they have, i'm of the hike, hold and maybe even cut in the first half of next year if we start to have a recession. even if they cut a quarter point, i think that would be a green light for stocks the fed is positing their hiking pattern. >> steve, how likely, if we do go into a recessionings especially if inflation is not necessarily coming down in a dramatic way, at least not yet, how likely would it be to see the fed not only hit the pause button but reverse course? what would it take at this

point? >> you know, i think the pause button is more more likely the fed wants to get rid of inflation. i don't think it wants to go down this path and then go halfway. you'll note several fed officials have brought up the analog of the '70s where the fed did hike and then started to hold and cut and then inflation came back and had to do it all over again i don't think the fed wants to go through that. listen, morgan, there's an interesting question that has a lot to do with spelling, right i think when minerd was talking about breaking the economy, he was talking about b-r-a-k-e the economy and i think what powell is breake with b-r-a-k-e i think they can do that without breaking the economy, so to speak. it's a question, and i think the fed is going to keep going until inflation gets down to at least on a path to where it wants to go

i'm pegging a rate of 3.75 to 4% i think the fed could potentially hold there if it starts getting better news on inflation. >> that's certainly not as high as some forecasts. i'm reminded of what goldman said yesterday, talking about what they expect out of the meeting. some fmoc participants will likely see forecasting cuts as counterproductive while -- after pleading with bond market in august do you really expect dots to expect more than, say, one cut in '23 >> no, i don't think -- let me be clear i'm not talking about the fed -- as steve mentioned, a pause or even maybe just language that would suggest they might pause or cut a little bit, i think, perhaps could be in the cards if recession happens. i think people really sometimes lose track of the fact that rates are still basically pretty low on an historic basis we're basically going back to

normalcy here. we're not going back to some crazy 1970s oil shock inflation. so, i think the fed, even if we go to 4, it sounds dramatic to where it has been but it's not crazy. stocks historically, if you look at the numbers, as long as the rate begins to ease, companies can do okay. if we have high -- if we have high employment rates, the economy can still recover. again, this narrative that we're really headed towards disaster, i think, it really, in my view, overblown. this is just a return to normal interest rate policy >> steve, there's this nuanced point that is starting to emerge on our air it really circles back to the report you just gave us as well. i realize it's not part of the fed's dual mandate but you could argue is contributes to it does the fed need to get asset

prices back in line with fundamentals if yes, that raises the question of what that means for stocks. >> so, i think to a large extent the fed does what it can to ignore the stock market. i know that may sound weird to people, but i don't think the fed has a feel for why the market is where it's at at any one moment i think what the fed does is focus on the bond and interest rate markets those are the primary conduits of its policy. the stock market's going to more or less fall where it may. you know, you hear people on our air saying the fed doesn't want the market to go up. i don't think that's true. i think the fed has this sort of neutral attitude towards the market with the stock market for a lot of crazy reasons that are difficult for most human being to understand, especially a market so driven by computers and algorithms and going to do what it's going to do. whereas the bond market seems to have much better correlation to what the fed is doing and is

much more important for the fed to price it in would the fed be concerned if the market was a lot higher, yes. would it be concerned if it was a lot lower, yes, especially if it created systemic issues between a certain range, i think the fed is neutral with the idea that the market is going to do what it's going to do and not try to guide it too specifically >> all right gentlemen, thanks for the conversation our own steve liesman and mike yoshikami. here's our road map for the rest of the hour, including bitcoin under pressure again that's not stopping michael sailor from buying more. we have those details. and winding down two spacs after they failed to find deals. we'll check in on the overall slump in spacs. a lot more on the big two-day fed meeting. former phiy llfed president is with us as "squawk on the street" continues after a short

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we still have a problem with covid. we're still doing a lot of work on it, but the pandemic is over. if you notice, no one is wearing masks. everyone seems to be in pretty good shape. >> that was president biden on "60 minutes" over the weekend. vaccines and therapeutic stocks not taking kindly to the

president's comments some of the group's biggest losers yesterday have made triple digit gains since the pandemic began as the covid pandemic turns endemic, where do these stocks fit in your portfolio? joining us with the outlook, oppenheimer hartaj singh thank you for being on with us the reaction we saw in the stocks yesterday warranted >> absolutely, morgan. thank you for having me. you know, there's a real distinct possibility if the overall tam, total accessible market for vaccine sales is probably going to decrease without the government it will be more competitive with pricing pressure, and also vaccine fatigue in the majority of the population. i think that reaction is probably warranted for the near term outlook of vaccines. >> we talk about triple digit gains. moderna comes to mind. today new york city announcing it will end covid vaccines for

the private sector as well as student/athletes does this stock have farther to fall from here given it did see such a strong run-up >> yeah. you know, morgan, really moderna is sort of the classic of tension stop it's the tension between near-term expectations on covid-19 sales franchise versus being the leader in mrna vaccines going forward there was an antibody leader, regeneron now, these companies solving very complex diseases with therapeutic modalities. moderna will do that they're in the lead manufacturing, you know, pre-clinical, clinical development, fantastic team. in the near term, though, by that i mean 6 to probably 18 months, there is this tension from the expectation of covid-19 sales where everybody is very, very focused on. and i think that could put pressure on the stock. however, if you're a believer in

mrna therapeutics as being a fairly large sale of therapeutic sales, five, ten years from now, you know then you could keep owning moderna and even buy some on extreme dips. >> i wonder, to your point, as revenues from the vaccines start to abate, and they have to continue to spend a lot of money on these future opportunities, is there going to be a period of time where it's just all on the com to a certain extent and, therefore, perhaps the stock is not going to react well? >> you actually hit on our key concern going forward. it's less on the revenues. we've been modeling that for a year now i think it's well understood they're going to decrease, probably 50% by next year and more after that. the real concern is around earnings they're spending so much

this year the total op-ed spend will be more than vertex that's a significant spend if vaccine sales start decreasing rapidly, you could have one or two years going back to negative earnings, which is bad in itself, but there's also -- there's a lot of funds all over the world, as you know, carl and morgan, that cannot own companies that are not break even so, it just adds to the pressure on the stock from the earnings perspective. you're absolutely right. >> we talked about pull forwards in demand and e-commerce and shipping and maybe vaccines are the ultimate case study on that front. i do wonder, ben sail made some comments about the possibility of maybe seeing some demand in china if they were to adjust policy dramatically, maybe having a facility in japan how seriously did the street

take that? >> you know, the stock, you know, sort of registered it. we had a couple of clients, you know, ask us about it. but most people shrugged it off because right now the -- what people are trying to get their hands around, this is going to be a one-off, you know, just like 2021 and 2022 sales are likely to be a one-off that is probably not a long-term benefit. if there's organic, ongoing sales, that's a benefit. the flip side is i'm not a macro analyst but we have to remember the current political climate with concerns around, you know, technology transfer to other countries, you know, specifically china you know, that might make things long-term agreements difficult for companies like moderna or pfizer and biontech, but let's wait and see. >> that's a good point moving past the pandemic, looking at your coverage universe, what would you be buying right now >> look, if you like momentums that are growth stocks, we love

regeneron, highest price target on the street. this is a stalwart in therapeutics their eye drug just showed it could probably have legs through the end of this decade, even with generics coming on board. if you like cheap stocks with good dividend yield in pharma, you should own gilead. i know they've had a tough seven years. a lot of people, including myself, have been wrong on picking when the stock would start working. we were at a medical conference in paris, france the oncology is doing well they have the hiv franchise, will have more competition through the end of the decade. they have the best yield in biopharma. i think depending on your likes and dislikes, you could have one or the other i would own both. >> some names for our viewers to check out. hartaj, thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. still to come this morning, we'll talk about the ongoing bitcoin volatility, down 20% in

the last two months. back below 19k today. paypal is under pressure cut to neutral, price target 100. they cite margin pressure among other factors as the stock is metw to the 50-day for the first ti in o months more ahead stay with us

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exceeding expectations for the month of august. diana olick has the numbers. >> it was a nice surprise to the upside on starts the bulk of the gain was in multi-family single family was up just over 3% from july to august this may be why. take a look at what happened to the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage after bumping over 6% in june it came down and really dropped in august, nearly hitting 5%. d.r. horton noted that they saw a start. mortgage applications to buy a newly built home actually jumped 17% from july to august.

that's unusual this number is not seasonally adjusted and usually falls in august so, the builders clearly responded. but rates began to rise again by mid-august and that's likely why we saw the disappointing single family permit numbers, which are an indication of future construction, down 3% for the month and down 15% year over year that's the lowest since june 2020, the initial pandemic panic before the big rise in construction in the builder sentiment number we got yesterday which moved further into negative territory, builders pointed to this bump up in rates by the way, the 30-year fixed is now not just back over 6% but well over 6% and likely headed even higher today given the rise in the ten-year yield which mortgage rates loosely follow. we'll get releases tomorrow from kb home and lennar and should get color on where this volatile housing market is headed. let's get a check on crypto, specifically bitcoin, which is

stuck below 20k. it's actually around 18.6 right now. continuing to fall it's now down more than 5% this month on top of big losses for the year that said, there are still some bulls on the street. michael sailor's microstrategy is buying the dip, acquiring an additional 301 bitcoins for around $6 million in cash. between august 2nd and november 19th that's an average price of $19,851 per coin the late summer buying a drop in the bucket for company's bitcoin holding. microstrategy holds around 30,000 coins average purchase price of just a little over 30k per coin of course, this is a company, guys, we've been following pretty closely there have been a lot of changes there as well, as i believe sailor was co-founder and ceo is now chairman and stepped aside, right? >> it hasn't diminished his belief in bitcoin whatsoever he comes on and is one of its

main proponents. amazed how well followed he is when we bring him on, too. >> yes we don't even talk software anymore. it's all about the bitcoin strategy i like to turn to you on the ether stuff, since that's your beat now. >> is it >> this is a joke. he has a very wry sense of humor. i was all over that merge. i wrote the code for that merge. you know that carl it went very well. we're all very happy about it. >> you kept that under wraps. >> yeah. the planet is happy, too, because there's going to be a lot less energy usage as a result of the merge in ether hasn't meant much for the actual underlying coin. >> i think there's also an expectation you're going to see potentially some bugs and hiccups that need to be worked out, too, plus macro pressure is having an impact on cryptocurrencies overall. quick note as we head to

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welcome back i'm kristina partsinevelos here's your cnbc news update at this hour. russian controlled parts of four regions in ukraine will vote to join russia. if successful, the referendums would pave the way for russia to annex about 15% of ukraine. in new york debates have started at the united nations general assembly the head of the u.n. given a stark warning of the urgent challenges facing them >> rough seas, a winter of

global discontent is on the horizon. the cost of living crisis is raging, inequalities are exploding and our planet is burning. we have a duty to act. and we are gridlocked in co-loss so will global dysfunction and in the caribbean, fiona has strengthed to category 3 hurricane. it's nearing the turks and caicos with winds up to 115 miles per hour and is on track to become a cat 4 hurt before approaching bermuda on friday. morgan, welcome back and back to you. >> thank you, kristina hopefully that is not what happens. about an hour into trading let's get a check on the markets. we have all the major averages trading lower. the ten-year hitting fresh highs more than a decade back as stocks fall ahead of the big fmoc meeting kicking off today mike santoli is here to help us break down the action. michael, it does seem like

yields are yielding the action today. >> yes they're setting the agenda still. it seems that the bond market is very much captured the message of the fed and pricing it in in a sense, getting ahead or attempting to get ahead of the fed. we'll get the fed's outlook tomorrow in addition to what it did at this meeting. bond market now saying short-term rates peaking at 4.4% early next year. it's feeling as if the stock market wants this meeting to offer a glimpse of what the ultimate destination is with rates. we only have three months left in the year. 2022 can be the year when we took all the medicine. that seems to be where equities want to get to maybe that's going to be the case i don't necessarily see it as requiring the stock market to go down a whole lot more to build in what the fed wants to get done the issue is, and what hangs over the whole market is, investors fear that the fed has told us they're going to error on the side of erroring, which means they're going to error on

the side of doing more damage to the economy than may be necessary. that's where we are. we're off balance with that as earnings seeming like they're coming off a peak, even as the s&p 500 is already 20% off its own peak. >> yeah. one of the things we talk about in the past is whether there are comparisons to other times in history. a lot of iners havest i've spoken to are comparing this to 1999-2000. how do you see it based on the data you're looking at and combing through every day? >> it seems as if the first part of what we went through in the early part of 2022 was a bit of a post-2000 peak rationalization. you kind of swept awayall that froth that had built up in the kind of internet-related e-commerce disrupter bubble that we went through. but it doesn't really match up to me in the sense of what the fed's up to, where inflation sits because the fed actually started cutting in 2000. they were kind of hiking into

it i see a lot of resemblances in the sense that the underlying real economy did not have it as bad as the financial economy did in the aftermath of the 2000 peak it was a recession unemployment went up but it was not a particularly bruising one. it was really a corporate recession and a markets recession more than it was a main street one. >> meanwhile, this morning goldman takes notes of some of the shots across the bow we got from fedex and from ge, and today it's ford. and wondering whether or not we're beginning to see maybe a little later than we thought, but a break in corporates. >> no doubt we are i think it only comes as a partial surprise to the market that's the tricky part it's not so much that, oh, estimates are not going to be met or we have to revise down the forecast i think everyone's pretty much on board with that again, the average stock, i think 40% of all large cap stocks are down from a prepandemic peak, not even 2022.

a lot of this is in the market at least in the level of the average stock. i still see a top-heavy market in terms of the valuation excess is apple at 24. why can't it trade at 19 times forward earnings i'm not saying it will, but if it does, the index will feel it. nothing says it shouldn't go back to that level >> thanks. we'll watch that, obviously. the fmoc begins their two-day meeting today ahead of wednesday's anticipated rate hikes. the central bank is hoping to stave off a recession. leon cooperman told "squawk" is imminent. >> i'm assuming the fed qt, the strong dollar, the price of oil will produce a recession and when recession hits in 2023 -- i've been very steadfast saying no recession this year 2023 recession, the marker will head to a lower level than is presently. >> former philadelphia fed president charles plosser is with us to talk about today and

tomorrow good morning to you. >> good morning to you, carl. >> we just had a discussion about recession worries, corporate warnings obviously, asset values and stocks and even housing month on month. is this something you think the fed is privately applauding? >> well, no, i don't think they're applauding it but i think they recognize the necessity. they said this many times, the necessity of the economy slowing if they're going to get a handle on inflation and i think the fed has been -- jay powell has been steadfast, at least since august, about the importance of the fed regaining its grip on inflation. that's good news i'm glad to hear that. and other fmoc members have been saying the same thing. i wonder sometimes where that commitment was a year and a half ago when it was present, but it wasn't i think they're steadfast.

i don't think they're concerned about a slowing of the economy at this point. will they escape a recession that's hard to tell yet. >> they've gotten beaten up. obviously, there's the whole transitory era, i guess you could call it, being late to acknowledge that even sort of discussions about why they continue to buy mbs even as housing was rocketing. how much blame do you think -- not that it's the most important thing, but how much blame do you think they do deserve, at least in the rearview mirror now >> well, i think the fed deserves its fair share of blame for this inflation episode obviously, it was helped along by a very staunchy fiscal policy the war came in later, ukraine came in later to affect oil prices and other things. look, the fed ultimately has to take the heat for this it's their mandate it's their most important

mandate. and they are responsible and they need -- now seem to be willing to fess up to some of that responsibility. although some of them still in the back of their mind all hopes this goes away without them having to act very much more i think that's reasonable thinking, but -- wishful thinking, but that may be where some people are right now. >> charles, i know we've been talking about this for at least a year now maybe even longer. the idea of the risk of stagflation but how real is that now that you have a fed hiking, you have increasing, growing calls and concerns, at least from wall street around recession and inflation is still stubbornly high, at least for now? >> look, this economy is still a long way from recession at this point. we're not there. and i think that, yes, there's always some worry about some slowdown, or maybe it will just be some kind of slowdown without

a recession. i don't know the answer to that yet. the fed can get lucky. but i think the balance of risk, and the fed often talks about balance of risk, the balance of risk here is not a recession the balance of risk is the failure of fed to get -- of the fed to get a grip on inflation that's where the biggest risk is and that will be borne out, i believe, if the fed fails to follow through on its aggressive language it's been giving the last few months. if the fed only -- only did 50 this meeting, it would be an unmitigating disaster. it would undermine their credibility and everything they've been saying for the last few months so, my prediction is they'll do 75 basis points. i wouldn't be surprised if they did 100. i would be okay with that. but i don't think that's the most likely outcome. so, i think the risk here is the

fed doesn't do enough. that is what's going to create the challenge for even a greater recession if inflation gets out of hand, more out of hand, i should say >> excellent points, charles >> then the pain's going to be really much greater. >> certainly we have decades in the not too far distant past that would corroborate that. we'll see what happens tomorrow. appreciate it very much. charles plosser. >> thank you, carl. want to continue to just bring people up to date on the latest in musk versus twitter. of course, things grind along. we're less than a month away from the beginning of the trial in delaware, which is scheduled to begin on the 17th of october. got a notice from the court as we've expected, of course, elon musk will be deposed sounds like he'll have a couple of busy days ahead of him next week on the 26th and 27th, perhaps even going into the

28th he'll be deposed upon oral examination and it will -- looks like it will be in person. trying to confirm that as well, in delaware, at the offices of potter anderson. someone pointed to that deposition well, he's not going to want to be deposed it's elon musk, he doesn't care about being deposed. bring it on. probably not going to be spending a lot of time in factories at spacex or tesla next week. >> maybe not and i have a feeling we'll -- you'll be covering this very closely. >> we are. you know, there's a lot going on in the court every day in terms of chancellor mccormick. she seems to be getting frustrated with musk's lawyers ultimately this deposition will be an important moment and then we head closer and closer to the trial itself again still scheduled to begin on october 17th and to last five full days. as we head to break, check out the biggest laggards on the

s&p, which is down 1.3% right now. it's industrial and materials names for the most part. it's names like ford and general motors, iron mountain, west rock. we are celebrating our cnbc teammates and contributors >> i was born and raised along the border in the texas rio grande valley and i'm blessed to come from a working class mexican american family. when times got tough no matter how far away we went for college or work. one of my sisters told me, there's beauty in the struggle and it's not always easy, but our challenges shape us. it's important to remember where you come from because no matter where you go or who you meet, you represent your people and you represent your people and your culture wherever you goabl.

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four shares are sliding after the company warned quarterly earnings would take a hit. our phil lebeau has more on that today. hey, hil >> hey, carl, this has really hit the auto stocks, both the automakers as well as the suppliers. here's the news from ford. came out after the bell yesterday. the company saying it expects to earn just 1.4 to $1.7 billion in the third quarter for some point of reference here, the consensus before this warning was for them to earn almost $3 billion. here are the two problems. supplier costs coming in $1 billion better or higher than expected and they have 40 to 45,000 vehicles that they planned on delivering in the third quarter. they're built but they're going to be held why? because they do not have all of the parts and components needed. they do expect to sell or deliver those vehicles to the dealers in the fourth quarter. the parts shortages, we should point out, are not chip-related. that's one reason why you see

the auto supplier stocks under pressure today as you take a look at shares of ford, the company is reaffirming its full year profit guidance of making between 11.5 and $12.5 billion. so, you might be saying to yourself, well, should the stock be down almost 10% brings up the question, how much confidence do you have not only in ford but all of the automakers to be able to meet the targets that have been set out there? not just the automakers but also the auto suppliers that's why when you take a look at shares of gm, toyota, they're also under pressure. really almost every auto stock is under pressure right now. keep in mind, we are seeing inventories still way below where they should be just 28, 29-day supply when, in fact, they usually would be in a normal market at 65 or 70-day supply back to you. >> okay. we're going to continue to watch this space closely phil lebeau, thank you. quick note as we head to break, cnbc is delivering alpha

investor summit returns in person september 28th. meet with economic leaders, policymakers and the world's best investors to register go to cnbc.com or point your phone at the qr code on the screen. we'll be back. we're near session lows for major averages

welcome back to "squawk on the street." beyond meat's coo making headlines for biting into something other than his product. our kate rogers hathe latest >> that's right, c.o.o. doug ramsey was arrested over the weekend for allegedly biting a man's nose after an altercation following a college football game in arkansas he was charged for terroristic threatening and third degree battery. now, beyond meat did not respond to requests for comment from cnbc nor has ramsey. he joined the company in december, coming from three decades at tyson foods over seeing poultry and its mcdonald's business. beyond touted his experience as they were about to lean into

partnerships with yum brands and mcdonald's and pepsi while it's had several product announcements and tests including beyond fried chicken with kfc and the mcplant burger, it hasn't announced any permanent items so far, which is something analysts were really looking out. for company also lowered revenue guidance and announced layoffs of about 4% of its workforce the stock is down about 70% this year back over to you >> kate, certainly a story the company doesn't need right now kate rogers on beyond meat today. let's get over to dom chu. >> good morning, carl. stocks are lower, very much so, to start the day, with every single sector as you can see behind me in negative territory. now, the consumer and tech sectors are relative outperforms on the day, and if you want to look at that consumer discretionary sector in particular, there are bright spots in a sea of red. you have some of those casino stocks trying to hold on to

gains this morning, especially those with significant exposure to the macao region in china the moves really come as local media reports that the chinese government is studying strategies to further support tourism in that gambling hub of macao, so you can see big moves higher, about 4% to 6% for the big guys now back to you. >> dom, see you in a bit coming up, a big show on "tech check. tony shue talking everything from inflation to the stock, down over 70% in the last full year of trading. in the meantime, "squawk on the street" is back in a moment.

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you know a cappuccino is for the morning and an espresso is for the afternoon. you know how to answer "sparking or still" in over 12 different languages. you'll try anything that's not currently alive... unless of course it's highly recommended. the delta skymiles® american express card. if you travel, you know. welcome back corporate board diversity has seen a big jump over the last two years and bertha coombs has more >> for the first time ever, every company in the s&p 500 now has a racially or ethnically diverse board member luis marconi is one we spoke to, not on a board of an s&p 500

company, named to the board of american outdoor brands just last june after 25 years at hormel, where he helped develop new markets. since the pandemic, the outdoor firm has seen its customer base become increasingly diverse, and that's why they wanted to tap the avid fisherman and diver in part because of that expertise he had with the latino and south american markets >> you draw from the experiences of being exposed business cases in different geographies or cultures that will trigger some ideas that perhaps your competitors are not seeing >> that is one of the things that is prompting a lot of companies to look outside of their usual groups over the last three years especially, the push for more representation on boards has now resulted in nearly 1 in 4 directors on s&p 500 boards being of racially or ethnically diverse -- a racially or ethnically diverse group

but despite the rapid growth in the hispanic population overall in the country, the percentage of hispanic board members who now make up about fi5% of s&p directors, it remains disproportionately lower compared to population size. especially when you compare it to black and asian representation >> all diversity gains are important and significant. and we need more of it but latinos from all of the perspectives have still been the least tapped when you look at who are the new directors being appointed. >> luis marconi's appointment to american outdoor brands rely stands out because when you look at fortune 1,000 firms, only about 1 in 3 actually has a latino board member. part of that stems from the small number still in the c suite, so while the numbers are growing, there's still a long

way to go in groups like latino ko corporate directors association trying to build up that pipeline >> bierthbertha, thank you. >> the so-called spac king, a frequent guest here, is unwinding two of his many spasp. he has brought many of them public and most of them have done deals, but in this case, as our viewers may know having followed this sector, roughly two years after they go public, they have to do a deal within that timeframe or get an extension or return the money. in this case, he has chosen to return the money at roughly what would be $10 a share so in fact, for many of those investors probably better than they did in the stock market during that period of course, you're taking a look at our cnbc post spac index, deals done by spacs and how they

performed since then to be fair, i also want to show you the ipo etf, because it does put in some perspective, that ipos from similar vintages have not performed much better than have many of the spacs, but when you look at the numbers of what's still out there looking for deals, it is truly stunning. 550 spacs are still looking for transactions it's almost laughable to think that what percentage of them will be successful in finding them 113 have been liquidated 164 are still looking to come public and then we have another 20 that will probably be liquidated as they get closer and closer to that two-year deadline >> just going back to the companies that he was involved in bringing public, you can see those trading lower today. open door particularly lower because that is a company that is facing some issues as we're seeing the slowdown in housing very similar to what we saw with zillow not long ago. but obviously, i have been following this closely myself

given the fact virgin galactic was one of those tent pole names that went public in this up until a couple years ago unusual style. we have seen that company come off 90% since the highs of early 2021 >> yes, he was able to get out and make a lot of money. 10.5 million shares, he only paid about $17,000 for them. that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street. "tech check" starts now. >> good monday morning i'm carl with deirdre and jon fortt, who is live in las vegas. more on that in a moment nvidia is kicking off their developer conference as we speak. shares more than 60% off the 52-week high can the company boost that falling stock price? we'll bring you the highlights throughout the hour. plus, a check on iphone demand and what it might mean for apple shares the company planning some price hikes and dealing with some camera bugs. we'll get details on that. inflation, of course, top of mind for investors ahead of the fed decision tomorrow.