it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." stocks in the whipsaw action following the rate hike and more volatility looks on tap with futures moving between gains and losses. the central bank digging in further on its fight against inflation. raising interest rates by another 75 basis points. stephen roach lays out why there is more tightening coming down the line. russians taking to the

streets. condemning vladimir putin's order to mobilize 300,000 troops for the war in ukraine as world leaders scramble to address the latest provocations. meta platforms reportedly slashing staff as facebook gets ahead of the growing economic headwinds. and your morning rbi and the i beli impact on the rate hikes and your money it is thursday, september 22nd, 2022 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan today let's kick off the numbers with the rate hike yesterday. stocks are mostpositive

it is modest however, what you are seeing is a dow implied higher by 45 points nasdaq up 43 checking on the bond market. yields in focus. we are seeing a tick to the up side to yesterday 3.54% for the 10-year treasury 2-year treasury is now 4.1%. we continue to see moves higher 2-year treasury which tends to track more closely to the fed interest rate picture. in the oil market, right now, the economic conditions of the world is the story crude prices are showing signs of life. up 1.25% $83.99 for wti brent crude futures, 9$98.70 in cryptocurrency. continued pressure we are still hovering just below

the $20,000 mark $19,199 is the last trade for bitcoin. ethereum prices continue to show near-term to medium-term down side after the software upgrade. the merge. down 3.5%. let's go worldwide as investors await another big rate decision from another central bank karen tso is in london with latest on the european market action it looks like a bit of a catch-up trade, karen. >> good morning, dom the domino effect here in reaction to the fed. we have moves in the swiss national bank. they moved by 75 points. taking it .50. norway moved the same 50 points as well today to 2.25% that would leave us shy from the

fed at this point. look at markets. we are seeing losses across the core markets the french markets down .50% banks are doing heavy lifting. gains of 1% for the sector that is the reaction of the move on rates we are battling the negative rates for a long time in europe. let's show you the foreign exchange markets that increased by 75 basis points and that swiss fraunc is lower. you can see a dollar gain on the swiss. we are allowing support for the action from the central bank hawkish moves. dollar/yen move. the interaction from the bank of japan on the back of the dovish

meeting by the central bank in the opposite view against other banks hawkish. it is staying loose. you see them step in the market. that is impacting at 1.42% dom. >> karen tso, thank you. let's dive into the rate hike and market reaction with greg hahn. chief investment officer at winthrop and alfred romero at impact analytics alfred, we'll start with you on the bigger picture move. we got what was expected the futures market priced in 84% chance of 75 basis points. take us through why the markets reacted the way they did if the economic narrative hasn't changed from jackson hole, wyoming? >> you are right the federal reserve ended up

doing what they were doing ahead of time. they were going to increase the rate by 75 it has to do with the change in posture and by telling us they will not only continue increasing the bond rate more, they will continue to do so until they see clear signs inflation is recedreceding. >> that is good, alfredo we are seeing what fedex period of times -- fed experts and what they thought would happen this year and that momementum takes over next year, greg if you have the interest rate tightening cycle in play and what can we expect from markets now if we know this is going to happen >> dom, higher interest rates

will mean a shift in valuation for equities and fixed income right now. we are seeing 10-year treasury at 5% and municipal bonds at 4.25%. you can invest you will see a shift in valuations we are in the period with commercial real estate with cap rates haven't adjusted higher like the liquid markets. it's been quiet. price discovery is problematic we will see a shift in credit quality. we would expect to see deterioration in credit and that will come through the clo. >> i'm very glad, greg, you brought that up. this is a re-pricing this is what traders and investors i've spoken to talked about. this is by no means panic. we lost a lot of ground in the

market it isn't like we flushed out 1,000 points in the dow or 2,000 points in the dow or risen on the other side it is the revaluation. we are down a percent. down another percent does that scream re-pricing to you? higher rates mean stock prices have to go lower because of risk free rates are so much better now? >> yes. i think you hit on it. this is a new monetary regime. monetary regimes last 15 years investors are used to the fed coming in and bailing out the market they've done it since the financial crisis in 2008 this is actually the fed trying to earn its credibility back by talking and saying we're in it for the long haul. expect rates to continue to move higher they are willing to push the economy into recession to do it. the amazing thing is that labor

market is so strong. we have a labor market strength not seen in 50 years to see what is about to happen with layoffs ford announced layoffs we will see shifts in business models to support it companies have to do to support margins and profitability to maintain valuations in a market that's shifting. it's natural market movement >> alfredo, the interesting point. the jobs market. we're seeing anecdotal moves for sure and in some places in the industrial complex in america or job cuts are coming or have happened it is crazy. the jobs market is still relatively strong by many measures and we've just seen through union contracts and everything else that wages keep rising the knock is they are not keeping up with inflation. so is this a scenario where we

are going to go into recession, but still not have material weakness in the jobs market shaping around that? >> well, i think the chairman said it yesterday. this is what we have is recession with growth. i think they abandoned the talk of self lending and they are more clear and they have caused pain on wall street and the papain is about to come for main street if they can keep it between 4.5% and 5%, that is upwards of 2 million jobs lost. that may be enough for the strength of the job market to stay afloat and keep recession at 4%. >>ing interesting moves by the central bank greg hahn and alfredo romero, thank you. let's get to silvana henao

with the latest headlines. >> the potential infusion into sam bankman-fried's financing earlier this year for ftx. negotiations are ongoing ftx has been on a buying spree credit suisse is weighing plans to split up the investment bank into three units. according to the financial times, the swiss lender hopes to sell units to avoid a damaging capital raise. the move would involve res resurrecting a bad deal. credit suisse is trying to emerge three years of bad deals. and the ftc is looking at

amazon's prime service and other subscription service and both ceo ass are looking to testify amazon must comply with the demand no later than october 7th. >> hesilvana henao, thank you and still to come, stephen roach is here and why he says a u.s. recession is looking more likely and world leaders increasingly condemning russia following the military ramp up in ukraine the moves still in play to curb moscowc moscow's growing aggression. and after 99 days, the pain at the pump is stopping. is this temporary or a sign of things to come a very busy hour sllti ahead

when "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." to a developing story and the ongoing war of words and war of everything with moscow and the west in the wake of vladimir putin's decision to initiate the first military mobilization since world war ii g76 ministers announcing they will pursue more sanctions against moscow following putin's

order. this development after biden condemning russia's moves at the u.n. general assembly yesterday. >> let us speak plexplainly. permanent member of th coucouncil invade its neighbor russia violated the tenents of the united nations carharter no more clear than the prohibition of the country's taking the territory by force. >> joining me now with what this could mean for investors and the next steps for the u.s. and allies is oliver weiman and daniel tannebaum you've gotten a lot of perspective over the years, dan,

with regard to how things shake out with situations like this. is the u.s. right now in a situation where they have to be more aggressive against russia and vladimir putin >> it is remarkable. we are coming up on seven months on the invasion. it was telegraphed for a while, but no one thought putin would do it. this is a challenge where the eu has tip of the spear it is in their backyard. the u.s. is working with the allies in europe the u.s. has to be measured in its response i think with every passing move that president putin moves galvanizing the west the round of sanctions -- there is more in the tank. there is isolation of russia. >> this is fairly consensus right now.

what's not consensus is other places in the world especially those in the middle east and east asia. i'm thinking about india and china. two of the biggest economies in the world that are still -- china may not be on the fence. they are aligning with putin right now, but showing signs of cracking in the relationship india is on the fence a little bit more how important is it to get everybody involved in condemning vladimir putin >> i think everyone has a role to play. maybe not get totally involved china is unique. you saw reporting that north korea is backing away on reports they were supporting russia. we had treasury officials travel to the middle east and india and turkey to put the countries on notice that you will be subject to sanctions we saw a handful of turkish banks pull out of the financial system i don't know if everyone needs

to be rowsing in the same direction. china is saying don't provide material economically from the military standpoint. >> dan, i work in business necessary. we necessary. news we focus these headlines on the impact of the economies and markets. the sense i get is wearing paying more attention and the marketing are skittish of interest rate policy and the fed than they are about bullets and missiles in the sensitive part of the world are we due for more volatility >> we saw movements with the

pipelines and gas flows a few months ago it has been made clear humanity will find energy and commodities outside russia once there began comfort and the beginning of the plan and ban of russian energy, it did begin to numb the market reaction you expected them to be shutout. let's remember, aeg related activity is not sanctioned russia could transact on the open market. there is still more room for businesses to wind down russsian activity we will be here for the long run. these sanctions are a slow bleed for the russian economy as we watch with further rounds of military support for ukraine and western sanctions against rush. >> dan tannebaum thank you very much. good to see you in the studio. still on deck for the show

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yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones the stretak is over after 99 straight days of falling price, the nationwide average for gasoline ticked up

by a penny yesterday to $3.68. according to aaa well off the record of $5.02 in june the 14-week decline was the longest declining streak since to 15. today, prices are holding study at $3.68. many analysts believe gas is likely to rise than fall in the coming months. a recession would reduce fuel demanded and escalation in the war in ukraine or a major hurricane disrupting refineries along the gulf coast let's get insight from denton cinquegrana. denton, gasoline prices, i know because before i got to work today, i filled up in new jersey it was $3.29 a gallon.

that is well below where it was months ago take me through the thinking here why are prices headed higher from here? >> we've had a pretty run of bad electri luck of refineries we had a fire at a refinery in ohio we are getting into the maintenance season the margin gets thinner. we're still in a supply situation where supplies are lower than they should be. california is a tough spot right now. we are watching refining action right now. so far, a fine line, but for the time being, gas lines are getting tight. >> as an oil analyst, you are focused on the supply side of the economic equation as opposed to demand? >> a little bit of both.

we get data from stations. we see demand below a year ago on a weekly basis, it is choppy. we are running 4% or 5% below levels i think people are driving less so that could keep a lid on prices in the short-term, demanded has an impact. we are getting into the fall i think at 9:03 tonight begins fall we are getting to the season with less driving. >> also we talk about nuance and a little in the weeds. it does matter we talk about the refining aspect the switches during the year between certain blends one geared toward summer and one toward fall and winter i thought the summer one was the more expensive we should be going into the

fall/winter, it should be less expensive. is that the case >> it is the case. we have seen so much market volatility over the course of summer that the price had no choice but to move lower you know, to put that summer/winter blend in context think of baking a cake eggs, milk, flour. say in the summer, you need gluten free flour versus all purpose flour in the winter. that winter is cheaper is a factor again, we had so much market volatility in the summertime, it was difficult for the price to stay where it was. even with the speak of two days of prices moving higher, i don't think we're in a trend where prices will shoot back up to the $4.50 or $5 price we saw early in the summer. >> why are oil prices continuing to fall? i understand there is an economic narrative here. i understand central banks are

raising rates around the world that will take the heat off the commodities. can we expect a bottoming in oil prices soon or is this a down trend for a while if a global recession is at play >> i think we see a little bit more down side we see headlines by the biden administration interested in refilling the spr at $80 we see saudi arabia pleased with prices in the 90 plus area maybe we fall into a little bit of a range of $80 to 9$90. although supplies look to be tight on oil, you know, i think the big macro picture is overweighing that. the dollar is stronger than recent years it is an uniinverse core

legislation. that keeps a lid on prices >> denton, thank you. still on deck for the show former morganstanley chairman stephen roach talks about the interest rate hikes. and sign up for the most powerful event of the year delivering alpha on september 28th to new york city in person. go to deliveringalpha.com to register a slew of big mena speakers as you see right there. we'll be right back after this their uk port every year. hh don't just connect your business. (dock worker) right on time. (vo) make it even smarter. we call this enterprise intelligence. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated custom scans help you find new trading opportunities

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looks like we're feeling good. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities. the fed's latest rate hike decision fuelling volatility in the markets. futures following yesterday's action with whipsaw moves. stephen roach is standing by to break down the latest actions. meta platforms reducing head count as it faces mounting challenging amid tech slowdown and european regulators are going after amazon and microsoft and google with cloud computing. it is thursday, september 22nd right here on "worldwide

exchange." i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan let's get to your money at 5:30 a.m. eastern time. futures are pointing to modest gains at opening bell. dow implied higher by 90 points. now to the 75 basis point hike fed chairman jay powell indicating the central bank will keep hiking above the current level and projections show an increase of 1.25% over the central bank remaining two policy meetings this year. that is not off the table. let's talk more about this with stephen roach. former morgan stanley asia

chair. professor, this move was widely expected this is not enough to dampen the inflationary picture why is it now we need to focus more on the anticipated rate hikes? i thought we've done enough? >> dom, thanks again for having me on. we've done a lot this is, of course, the most aggressive three steps consecutive of monetary tightening since the early 1980s under paul volcker the nominal federal funds rate at 3.1% is still five percentage points below the year over year cpi inflation rate you can't control inflation with

a sharply negative real inflated rate you've got to be disciplined, focused and tedetermined to get the nominal fund rate above the cpi inflation rate everybody is hoping and jay powell has been notable for being the most hopeful that the cpi would fade spontaneously that has been a disappointing forecast you know, i would say the fed is, at best, halfway down. he will end up taking the federal funds rate well above 5% which is above its latest projection and possibly up to 6% to contain inflation >> stephen, this is interesting. we are showing a sequence of charts here that have been

matching the data points you talked about one was looking at the core consumer price index fuel and food prices what it shows is this leveling out and rolling over the conventional wisdom is a lag in terms of affect when it columcome to monetary policy some say 6 to 12 months down the line when you think the fed fund rate has to go to 5% or beyond in the coming months or quarters, when will we see that actually play out? it could be 2024 or 2025 is that the thinking >> well, first of all, dom, i understand the point you are making on judging the federal funds rate to the core cpi i am old enough to remember my experience when i first got out of grad school working at the

fed under arthur burns when we didn't have a core cpi. he made us construct the first cpi on the staff. we kept taking things out that were transitory. that was the first mistake burns had us take out the oil and then food because of banishing anchovies. we took out cars and jewelry you name it, we took it out. the fed was forever behind the curve. i'm suspicious of the idea that the core is the absolute best way to gauge the stance of the fed. i prefer to look at the headline cpi. that keeps the fed erring on the side of being wary of this temporary inflation projection that misled them from the start

under jay powell >> now, stephen, one of the things the fed has that many other central banks don't have, the fed has a dual mandate right now, the employment picture -- there's no doubt there's stress in the environment right now. we are still seeing people have to pay more money and employers pay more money for workers we are still seeing, you know, people -- the unemployment rate at near cycle lows at this point right now. the whole idea of recession in the past has been a recession when you lose your job it is a depression when you lose yours. is the job market right now something that the fed feels it has the latitude to play with? i use that tongue-in-cheek because that is pervasively the worst problem? >> absolutely.

there is a dual mandate. there is one thing dealing with inflation and the record lows of unemployment in the u.s. labor market give them greater discretion to focus on the second aspect of the mandate they let get away from them. they have to move against inflation and they have to do it despite what is obviously going to be political flack from many members of the congress, some of whom i saw on the airwaves last night, sounding a warning that the fed cannot allow the unemployment rate to rise at all. >> professor, we have a few moments left here. one simple question. is america in a recession right now or not >> no, we're not in a recession right now, but we are headed toward recession we need an aggressive further

rate hike by the central bank and that with the lag will take the u.s. economy into recession probably in 2023 >> all right professor stephen roach. thank you. >> thank you let's get a check on the morning top stories. here is silvana henao. >> dom, meta platforms is quietly reducing staffing levels as part of the cost cutting push according to the wall street journal, meta is planning to cut expenses by 10% in the coming months in part by cutting jobs. the journal says meta is reorganizing departments and giving affected employees a limited window to apply for other roles within the company the paper adds the move is part of strategy to handle struggling growth and competition. and uk regulators are opening a probe into amazon,

microsoft and google accounting for more than 80% of the revenue. regulators expect a final report on thematter within the next year. gm says it will close reservations for the electric hummer and the suv version of the vehicle. more than 90,000 vehicles have been reserved. gm's decision follows ford after hitting 200,000 units. dom. >> silvana henao, thank you. coming up on the show. more on the fed rate hike decision with the morning rbi and what it means for your money and what you pay on uryo loans "worldwide exchange" is back after this

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so, no matter what happens you can build the bonds that mean the most to you. pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for something random but interesting. we send it out to brian sullivan for the rbi. >> the rbi is about interest rates and borrowing costs. we talked about national debt the other day. now let's talk about your borrowing costs. our crack team at cnbc put together a painful look at how far costs have risen 30-year mortgage rate is now 6% and probably going higher. helocs are higher at 6.5%. credit cards are spiking

1.5% on average in six months. you want to buy a car? prices for new and used cars are high, but borrowing costs are going up edmunds is reporting you may pay 10% for a used car alone i had to double check it it is all because the fed funds rate surged from 0.2% to 2.3%. what might this mean to you? let's put it in perspective. a 30-year fixed rate on a house is $1,700. wallet hub says the rise in rates increases the cost of credit card by $15.5 billion this year and go up another $5 billion with the hike yesterday. the average rate on the credit

card is 18%. the highest since 1996 all at a time when credit card debt is more than $900 billion thankfully wage gains may help manage the higher costs. if you wonder why we focus on the fed and rates here on cnbc, this is why. it impacts everything. of course, if you have debt. it may hit the entire american economy. time will tell random and important all right. thank you, brian sullivan. by the way, wallet hub says that all the rate hikes from the fed from march until now is going to have credit card users paying $21 billion more in interest payments it is random but interesting. stocks seeing whipsaw trading on the back of the t interest rate hikes.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's look at futures. we lost a little bit of steam in the last hour. we are mixed dow jones industrial average implied higher 35 points s&p lower down 2 points. nasdaq down 18 not a lot, but moves to the down side yesterday let's dive into the futures with the dow jones industrial average specifically especially given the fed interest rate decision maybe no surprise at 2:00 eastern time here is where the volatility happened with the fed announcement the crazy part is the dow futures. we saw before the announcement,

we saw it move by 400 points an after the announcement, down to where we are here. at the lows of the session, dow futures were 900 points below where they were before the announcement this is a lot of volatility. taking a look at the vix the gauge of how stock market volatility manifests on the s&p. this is now a cboe volatility index at 27 or 28. this is elis elevated compared norms. well lower during the pandemic market volatility in the spring of 2020. what does it mean? joining me now is amy wu silverman, managing director at rbc. amy, we turn to you because you

are an options expert. when yyou look at the vix, it shows relative volatility to other points in time this is not a volatile time in of the markets compared to the last few years >> good morning. you know, as you said, a vix with a 27 handle is quite high if you pulled that chart back 5 years or 10 years or 20 years, that vix is floating around 20 when you have a pandemic situation and nobody knew what would happen with the vix 80 in history was short. to float above the 20 levels high i will tell you what is interesting since yesterday. after the powell speech, vix drops.

the fact that we continued to move higher is a little different and more sysimilar to how stocks evolved during jackson hole >> interesting you bring up jackson hole it was the kickoff of the volatility fall season there are seasonal aspects october 10th and then we set up maybe for a year-end rally and posting thanksgiving into the new year is that how you see things playing out this time around >> i do. i think in some ways investors have been mired because of the pandemic, dom. i think we are moving out of the pandemic era into that back to nort normal volatility playbook if you look at september and october, vix picks up. then you hit thanksgiving and christmas and volatility slows down right now, what we are looking for which is critical is another

earning season and companies potentially provide foreign guidance into next year. that is important. you have the floating tail risk with the escalation with russia and ukraine. we don't know how to price events like that >> if options are poor at pricing that aspect of it, there has to be places they are better at pricing, right? maybe one of those things is risk free rates going higher the way they are it is in seeing economic projections play out the way they are it is maybe individual stock stories playing out the way they do in this volatility regime, is there a strategy you can put in place to protect yourself or profit from that volatility? >> we think so you know, the interesting thing about options is create

structures to buy and sell that can help you you have to identify the regime is first dom, one thing we have been saying is you have to be tactical right now volatility still expensive you want to be holding shorter term trades ahead of the events. ahead of a major macro catalyst. as we approach earnings, you can start hedging some of the names. you are seeing that pick p up for the options in the single names. that likely continues in earnings season. on the macro level, if you carry the hedges, you move through the spread selling. that helps cheapen costs as you look to specific events that you can help play out. >> just to put it in layman's terms. with elevated volatility, buying that protection for the up and

down side is expensive, but you can cheapen it by selling an expensive option along with it as part of the structure where are you seeing more of the activity playing out where are the profitable trades right now? >> it will surprise you because of how uncertain the environment is a lot of what we're seeing right now, even as the vix picks up as more volatility sellers come in. we had a drawdown as we headed into march, but it was orderly then slowly trended down and slowly trended up. that allowed investors to sell volatility andcollect yield an perhaps use it to fund other elements of the market they are concerned about. one aspect we talked about is a market out performance relative to other sectors if you are going to sell calls, collect yield. use the premium to fund other

aspects of market where you expect a down move should there be anne escalation in russia or ukraine. >> amy wu silverman, thank you very much. that's it for us on "worldwide exchange. markets trying to stay stable. the dow implied higher by 50 points right now "squawbok x" picks up coverage next we'll see you tomorrow tish por aw ely orch ate nearly 600,000 vehicles passing through their uk port every year. don't just connect your business. (dock worker) right on time. (vo) make it even smarter. we call this enterprise intelligence. when tired, achy feet make your whole body want to stop, it's dr. scholl's time. our insoles are designed with unique massaging gel waves, for all-day comfort and energy. find your relief in store or online. pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month

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good morning market whipsaw stocks swinging as investors weigh another big rate hike from the fed. jay powell is not the only central banker making headlines. the swiss bringing rates out of negative territory japan supporting the yen for the

first time in years. and head back to capitol hill for another grilling. it is thursday, september 22nd, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is on assignment at a conference in california he'll be joining us later this morning. in the meantime, here we go. the first day after the big fed decision and hawkish talk coming from jay powell. you see right now after a huge decline yesterday, another 550 points for the dow we are indicated up by 58. s&p fu