as it has been for so many days. >> subsector within the nasdaq chip stocks, semiconductor names continued to be under pressure ceo of qualcomm talking about software economic headwinds. seems to be part of the story today. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" begins right now. have a good day. the fed hangover sending stocks lower once again. nasdaq feeling the most pain the dow has made a brit of an impressive comeback. most important hour of trading starts now welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for sara eisen. straight to the market dashboard. s&p 500 has been down as much as just about 1% at the day's lows. significant thing, look at year-to-date chart ed in the seesaw action after the fed decision we did break below this 3,800 level an area that some of the bulls hoped would kind of hold it was a range low for what

we've been into the past four months and now in an overshoot zone not far from the june lows that's the issue the messy action is happening in treasuries in fixed income stocks sloshing around, getting oversold maybe a little in the immediate down side but it's a bit delicate because the market is trichy along with bond yields rising all day take a look. a bit of silver lining talk around how negative sentiment has gotten certainly among retail investors a rare 60%-plus bearish read be on weekly aaii investor poll only happened four times in the past this poll's existed since 1987 these dots show exactly when that was twice in 1990. twice in '08-09. never just an isolated incident getting to 60% and the market bottoms but caps in the zone one near out the market higher each of the times. not significantly different. four instances and clearly not the most scientific poll but something to keep in mind.

one of the positives, eventually, could be that sentiment has become so negative talk a little more about the market trend where it might go from here. i mentioned with the s&p 500 falling below that support level, around 3815 in this latest round of selling. and saying a new level, should be on your radar bring in katie stockton from fair league strategies great to have you on you've expected this summer rally. got into mid-august. probably not be sustained and rolled over once again what are we starting now in terms of s&p 500 what do you think we have to visit? >> the latest down drop took the s&p 500, you mentioned, down below this 3815 support level. not a confirmed breakdown yet. requiring weekly poses below because it's such a long-term major level. unfortunately if that breakdown is confirmed the targeted support is just south of 3200. doesn't mean it gets there

quickly. there is some interim support jut north of 3500 and we think that's doable for this year, but thankfully, we are coming into today really, or today is showing a short-term oversold reading. part of what you cited aaii data, sentiment, a bit oversold a bit oversold, others and over the broad basis of market internal measures we saw oversold indications it collectively supports a minor bounce here. we think fleeting, but at least could stave off that breakdown a little longer and give folk as chance to sell at a better price. >> and i was going to say. if we do get a bit of relief and the market is able to bounce a bit, clearly you think that would not be something to bet on continuing you think something to sell into if you're scrutinizing the character of a rally like a lot of people did coming off the june low, what would you look for as a sign that momentum

was rebuilding to the up side? >> i think positive divergence is the easiest and most obvious thing that we'd look for meaning higher lows in our indicators as prices coming off a lower low. that would be a first step, of course really just a loss of downside momentum that looks meaningful while we had a short-term oversold condition, we don't have an intermediate term of intermission and the gauges we track are going the wrong way. long side down tern and intermediate down tern momentum. we think it will fleet and a process not an event we want to see divergences unfold overtime and we think it could take months. >> yeah. i suppose typical, after this kind of a long-term down trend now, the nasdaq, nasdaq 100 or composite have been leaders to the down side here we see major stocks this week.

microsoft, alphabet, under cut lows hit back in june. so clearly seems like there's head winds there is there a different story with the nasdaq or is it essentially the same story, but, i guess, more so? >> well, it is it is exhibiting down-side leadership coming from the mega caps we cited a couple weeks ago the breakdown in nvidia being a bad example for the rest of them and now we have google we have alphabet and microsoft meta already has broken down these breakdowns are becoming very widespread, the summertime lows unfortunately indicates the major indices are likely to do the same and unfortunately the high-growth stocks i think a lot of investors put hope into suggesting they perhaps found their bottom i think unfortunately they'll be surprised to the down side here with those likely to follow suit especially if we see heavyweight apple break down the level i'm watching on apple is around 150.

if it is taken out i think that's where we're going to see that real sentiment shift. already the vix is poking above a minor resistance, and has room to 35. if we see apple break i think we'll see that level. >> now, bond yields obviously making new highs, multiyear, multidecade highs in some instances. where does that set up seems as if some of those moves have started to appear a little stretched? >> i would agree they do feel stretched, and yet looking at yields, looking at the dollar index, the momentum gauge is still do point to the upside both precautionary tales why respect momentum seen positive momentum, upside momentum behind both and really unrelenting if you will. ten-year treasury yields cleared that 3.25 level we're watching suggesting eventually they can reach 4% it may happen sooner than we would have expected with this upside we've seen more recently, and yet there are still some

signs of exhaustion there, here based primarily for us on the demark indicators suggesting we might get a couple weeks consolidation and day after day we come in and still momentum behind them. for now we're expecting that. >> for sure. 4% right ahead of us at 3.7 as we speak, katie. thank you. good to catch up. >> of course, you, too. all right. bank stocks are pulling back again today as recession fears trump rising rates, after the break, top-ranked bank an lit mike mayo lays out his latest thinking on the sector in light of the fed rate hike you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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a pop this afternoon after the company released earnings ahead of schedule. they had been slated for after the bell earnings per share coming in at 344 unrevenue of $23.2 billion stock up almost 3% now this, of course, after fedex warned weakened global demand. the ceo expecting a worldwide recession. shares down 25% this month a little bit of relief on that early earnings release. at a rising rate environment we usually see bank stocks rise. that's not the case think year the s&p bank index down about 15% for 2022, and more of the same today big banks down along with the broader market, but our next guest says bank earnings should finally be back to normal after

14 years joining us, wells fargo senior analyst mark mayo. good to have you here. the story's pretty clean and consistent right? higher net interest earnings without taking on more risk. should filter through right to the bottom line. market's not responding. overhang of i guess credit concerns where does that leave us, though when are you going to disprove the idea how can you? that a recession is not going to undercut earnings? i think when it comes to bank stocks the stock market has a cognitive disorder that disorder is recency bias. that from the global financial crisis, 15 years ago so first, when it comes to credit, not every recession is a credit crisis. if there tr big credit problems it's likely outside the banking industry if you're waiting to buy bank stocks for the big credit blowup like the global financial crisis or other recessions you're going to wait and wait and wait and wait you're going to, by that time,

the fed easing rates, and off to the races. the other recency bias is that the banking industry is going back to normal the last 14 years have been abnormal with zero interest rates most of the time the net interest margin, spread at banks, should be 40% higher if it went back to the level before the global financial crisis so we're just going back to normal, and we're going back to the days of what i like to call "363 banking." baits me borrowed at 3% led at 6% and on the golf course at 3:00 p.m. no more golfing at 3:00 p.m. for golfers but 3% fed funds where we are now are going back to normal and going back to normal means the biggest tail wind in modern banking history when it comes to main street banking revenues likely to see the third quarter and more of that in the fourth quarter and still more next year so when do you jump in the next three months are

tricky fed hikes, quantitative tightening, tighter capital standard for banks hopefully works out. could be a toxic mix in the short term looking out over the next year, banks one of the best performing industries out of all industry wis some of the best eps growth. by the way, if loan losses increased four times from the current level, we still think banks grow earnings next year. >> yeah. seems prommer. even if no credit brooff things on the mortgage and consumer side, corporate side, small business, how much of a cushion is there kind of answered that. does that mean that the stocks you should look at are the ones that are kind of the most traditional main street oriented how to navigate individual stocks >> yeah. we still feel there are main street banking tail winds and wall street banking head winds on the main street banking theme, i've been wrong this year, bank of america, but actually i think the stock market has been wrong.

at $32.50, bank of america, ban of america, bank of america. come back in a year and a half, good opportunity i forecast that benefiting from higher rates, and also derisked about as much as any bank for the last 15 years, since the global financial crisis. >> right looking at -- so it's a bit under a 3% yield you think that if the banks were able without limits to buy back as much stock as they could, this would be ideal. right? they are kind of earning plenty. have excess capital, yet can't quite directly get out there and buy shares much as they'd like >> right some regional banks still can buy back stocks. banks like pnc, regions, fifth third, regional banking we favor. you're right jpmorgan and citi bank can't and can't buy back that much stock. next year, though, with all of these earnings likely to happen in the second half of this year, they'll build up capital ratios

quickly and be back in the game. between now and first quarter of next year you need to be heavy in the banks we start picking away right now, know. >> and as outside of the very largest banks is m & a a theme at this point? >> well -- yes -- to a degree. i mean, as you see government has been putting the brakes on some banks consolidation, and in doing so, one of the biggest gifts around to brian moynihan of bank america and jame ip dimon at jpmorgan. deepens the u.s. banks u.s. bancorp investors waiting for the merger to be approved. pnc completed their deal doing quite well mergers still a thing, not as much in the current political environment. >> and i guess got to get through whatever kind of recession scare that is, and see how it goes. mike, thanks appreciate it. now check on the markets dow is up a little bit

up about 53 points s&p 500 now in losses. down about a quarter of a percent. still below that 3800 level. russell 2000, deep under performer off almost 2% on the day. up next, tell you why ftx and sam backman fried are looking to buy a new round of funding even as bitcoin meets new lows, speaking of bitcoin cutting its rate on block, on "bitcoin fixation." we'll talk to the analyst who made that call "closing bell" will be right back. you'll always remember buying your first car.

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sam bank. >> man: frooeds f atx kate rooney has more on the company and why it is looking for fresh funding right now. kate >> that's right. ftx in talks to raise up to a billion dollars in venture capital mining, three people familiar with the discussions. sources telling me this deal would keep the crypto company's

valuation at about thes 32 billion. what ftx was worth in january after its last funding round calling it a flat round. some saying a big win. and vc money at 85% discount shares of coinbase down 75% this year and bitcoin and cryptocurrency losings more than half of their value. flat rounds, mike, not the norm. at least in the past decade. not the valuation step-up companies or private investors are used to. ftx's prevention bankers softbank and sequoia among other names and the deal koss change in coming weeks or months. bottom line, money raised here will be used for more m & a. talked before about the crceo's role as a consolidator and looking gaining users in the u.s., not pure play crypto

companies. one to watch in the next couple weeks, a source close to that process telling me binance, another crypto exchange and ftx front-runners to buy voyager our bankruptcy disruption. back to you. >> interesting, kate you mentioned ftx a consolidator back stopping other players. whether it means kind of making sure counterparties are liquid and all the rest of it along the way. i wonder if that changes the assessment of what the new valuation might be what i mean by that, if now a bigger company bought a lot of other stuff relative to when it last raised money, is it apples to apples to say it's a flat ruined >> a flat round? >> taking on leverage here will the value of their books be the same and has that changed in the back end one down side of covering some of these private companies is you don't always have that transparency even if and when they announce this funding round. you likely won't get some of the details in terms of what the

deals look like that they do a block with block, voyager likely to come out in the next couple of weeks's a gi point and may not really be apples to apples what they're worth because the balance sheet could look so different. now a crypto holding company now in a way. >> exactly fascinating. especially if they want to go more direct to consumer as you say. see how it tracks, kate, thank you. ubs saying eli lilly's new weight-loss drug could be biggest ever and stock is rallying as a result the analyst behind that call joins us next. and you can listen to "closing bell" on the go by following the "closing bell" podcast on your favorite podcast app. don't forget, you can be in the room with some of the big of the names on wall street during cnbc's delivering alpha, which returns in-person next week. scan the qr code on the screen to register now.

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♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq we have a news alert bertha coombs has the story. >> hi. mike, saw shares halted actually for volatility cano is a value based care providing home health and primary care health for seniors and others in fact, we had the ceo on just

last month the "wall street journal" now reporting that humana is looking, perhaps, to acquire, at least in exploring a possible acquisition of cano health the ceo was on "closing bell" just last month and we were talking about signified health having been one of the companies that, amazon united health and cvs health were looking at, cvs health winning bidding on that cano shares you see there surging now 37% on that news this is a really hot area right now, mike, in health care. >> yeah. apparently so. kind of moving on to the next deal opportunities, bertha thank you very much. and cano health ceo, the same one, will be on the "exchange" tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. shares of eli lilly popping today after ubs upgraded its rating from buy to hold and raised its price target to $363 from $335. the rating change comes after a

key weight loss drug showed promise in a recent study and could become the biggest drug ever joining us now, ubs analyst colin bristo colin, thanks for joining us obviously there's been excitement certainly around this drug it's seemingly been in the market to some degree. what is your call based on in terms of where that can go revenue-wise and why do you think the market hasn't already figured it out >> i think a couple things to point out here right? so the drug launched for diabetes in may. to date the most successful launch in diabetes ever. we had, accidentally data after that, where this out-sized opportunity comes from and the drug showed best in class ever from a therapeutic in diabetes, and it's a headline data point the drug led to a 21% meme reduction in body weight, which, to put this in context with

bariatric surgery in the ballpark of 25%. so really this is a new paradigm of treatment, or could be, in obesity, and really potentially eli lilly will follow the drug by end of this year. took up estimates to $25 billion from $20 billion, which would give this drug accolade of being the, you know, the highest selling drug ever, and street consensus is coming in arounds $15 billion. we see this number at stale and as subsequently falling and the launch continues to execute we expect numbers to come up to eventually meet or exceed ours >> that $25 billion estimate what goes into that in terms of the number of patients and pricing and how long they take it for >> absolutely. yeah so the -- one point, a couple of things here. one, this is already approved in diabetes. >> yeah. >> if you look at the market this is operating in, the blib

one market around $16 billion in sales last year. by our estimate we think it can draw around $10 billion in diabetes alone leavings $15 billion for the other. and around 108 obese people in the u.s. 108 million. majority say 20 billion in peak saling in the u.s. alone you have to treat 1. million patients at the current price point. equates to less than 1.5% of the obese population we can argue, what is the true size of that treatment seeking compliant reimbursed population? even if it were 1/5, stillonly near a 7.5 shire of that population tget to your valuation. >> it is certainly about double the pe of comps like bristol myers or merck, whatever so you're saying that that's really justified

>> yes trading at low 30s multiple on 2023 ps. our price target 26 times malt poor on 40 ps. when you look at the growth profile of lily, double digits and 20% plus sustained top and bottom line growth largely driven by this asset so it definitely deserves a premium multiple we believe lily can do in excess by 2026. look at other comps generated, that sort of growth from a diversified revenue base that's sustainable, look to animal health comps trading at 30 to 40 times. >> yeah. certainly not too common to see that kind of growth at this point, colin thank you very much. appreciate you running through the call with us. >> thank you all right. here's where we stand in the markets. the dow still marginally positive up about 35 points the rest of the index still in

the red. s&p 500 down a third of 1% russell down a full 2% nasdaq still underperforming even though microsoft is up. blocking growth. shares of block falling after getting downgraded this morning. the analyst from that call joins us coming up. and celebrating our cnbc teammates and contributors here's former diane von furstenberg sandra compose. >> it's very important for me to be proud of my heritage and proud of who i am. we are uniquely strong and we need to be proud of that and showcase our strengths in the work place and at home from my own upbringing having to work with my father and learning how to understand about logistics and warehouse and production, i certainly have taken that and apply a lot of those leoneaedhrght my own career.

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last few years among the more active active investors. according to the article cite people familiar hoping the company will consider operational changes, capital allocation improvements potentially, selling the company outright, a very lucrative space for dealmaking in recent years freshpet shares down about 57% year to date and so we have reached out to sources close to jonna partners and reached out to freshpet for a comment and yet to hear back but will let you know once we do the share it's are currently halted at this point in time. >> all right down something like 75% from their high definitely bottom fishing effort here by jana it seems. thank you. and lenard shares higher after beating wall street earnings estimates up next, we discuss whether it's time to bet on the builders. that story, plus salesforce surging and block falling and we

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make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. cfr research chief investment strategist sam stovall is here to break down the trading day. and on block and ubs private wealth management's ally mccartney on the markets welcome to you all sam, start with you. don't fight the feds a pretty good maxim for six or eight months right here. we did get a little more ratcheting up of the anticipated hawkishness and what the fed will do. is it as simple as that?

has the market already absorbed that reality how do you say it playing from here >> i think investors aren't sure which way to turn. if you look to history and you know i'm a big historical fan, but realize that history might be a great guide but never gospel it's on the line i mean that, because we retraced 50% of this bear market move on april 12th, and history says that whenever we retrace that much we don't go down and set an even lower low ditto looking at washout of breadth in that june 16th period, but we're getting pretty close to possible setting a new low, and i think that the blame will likely go to the fed. >> sure. and you know, in a more long-term way, how are things getting set up right here? we are going to run into, if not now, soon, if we continue to decline. the market will get washed out again. you mentioned it was in june

running up into what's typically a bullish season's period. of course, not until late october or after, and we've been going down for eight, nine months, when market are down 20% year to date in september, actually more often than not are higher than that low at end of the year >> well i think we're probably setting ourselves up for some sort of a nice extended relief rally. you mentioned. october the most volatile month of the year. 36% more volatility than the average for the other 11 months of the year, but it's also typically a bottoming month in terms of market declines, and because this is also the beginning of a fourth quarter of the midterm election year heading into the first four months of the third year, again, history says that there have been out-sized advances not only in share price, also frequency of advance, which you really can't ignore. >> yeah.

certainly can't ignore, but maybe shouldn't be too early in trying to anticipate we'll see how things go. stick around meanwhile, expecting earnings in last hour slated to come out after the bell frank holland at the nasdaq with more. >> you see there, shares up after that surprise announcement i spoke to fedex they said the early announcement a result of a filing error not intentional in any way biggest surprise of this whole thing. revenue and eps basically pre-announced last week. the company also laying out plans for its cost-cutting measures as much as $2.7 billion. bulk of that coming from its express division including reducing flights for signature air delivery and parking planes, up to 5% cut from ground service. closing facilities, cutting delivery by 2025 looking to cut $4 billion parton an overall transformation plan. starting next year increasing rates, starting jang

7% hike for express and ground almost 7% to 8% for freight. basically trucking and the ceo saying fedex continues to focus on yield management revenue quality. shades of the better not bigger from u.p.s new ceo implementing that. look at the report you will see a lot of things put analysts to basically errors in operation by fedex as opposed to the macro pressure ceo pointed out last week on "mad money. revenues for spexpress flat revenue per package up 16% for express, revenue per package up 12% for ground you can see now shares actually moving higher after this surprising pre-announcement of earnings for fedex back to you. >> just a little relee on the stock given where it's come from sam, i ask you about the transports in general. they've not been friendly in terms of their message for the overall market here you have an example of a

stock down 40% harks a pretty bad macro outlook, announced cost cutting and market says, okay's make already taken its punishment where does that leave us >> possibly the situation. when you look at q3 earnings estimates the marketexpected a 10.5 increase for the 500 for q3 as of june 30th, but now that number is only 3.1%. whereas the industrials held up fairly well. where the transports are found with the airfreight being among the biggest subindustries in that sector. also, revenues remain fairly optimistic at about 16.9% growth we are seeing also positive numbers still for '22 as well as full-year 2023. >> yeah. frank, i want to get back to, also, to talk about salesforce a bright spot for the dow today. cloud saw unveiling plans

operating margins 25% for fiscal year 2026. 5% higher than its current fichkal year what about salesforce's revenue yot look >> really liked the outlook at well when cfo laid it out spelled out their guidance for revenue for fiscal year 2026 also going along with the margin guidance of $50 billion by fiscal year 2026 including $2 billion of impact from a stronger dollar popotentially. the stock popped after that. substantial increase from fiscal year 2023 guidance including fx head wind a big thing for salesforce and a lot of tech companies. dollar up more than 6% in q3 alone. in general, spoken to a lot of analysts that said look at the valuation of salesforce now. too cheap to ignore. back in january trading at 54 times forward earnings right now trading 28 times forward earnings

look at the whole macro picture. totally different than fedex for salesforce cloud spending resilient even seeing recession talk saw the stock market hit lows in june cloud spending dipped a little bit then popped right back up and stayed consistent in july and august 26% higher year over yaoer in august salesforce macro trends going in the right way supporting their revenue story and guidance and the idea of cloud-in option. >> yeah. something more than 15% annualized revenue can they hit it? see if 28 times earnings reads as cheap to lots of investors. frank, naunk. kp holm and lamar topping earnings estimates in recent quarters rising rates putting a chill on demand lennar reporting drops in third quarter. kb holmes orders dropped by 50%. home builders hit hard average rate on 30-year fixed more ratch climbing over 6%.

highest level since 2008 a tough call a lot of cyclicals look really, really cheap on current earnings but the fed is explicitly looking to have a housing market retrenchment already under way and haven't seen mortgage rates like this in a long time even as house prices have gone up where does that leave you? >> leeaves us unexcited in the home-building area you mentioned. mortgage rates are highest since 2008 so that is a head wind we think is going to keep pressure on the group. certainly maybe because you have very low inventories that could be a benefit, but in general our feeling is that while last year we had much of the earnings decline and, therefore, this year it won't be as bad the other area, such as household furnishings and appliances we think will see double digit declines in 2022. >> all right yeah

certainly a rapid turnabout in all of those product areas meantime, block down again today. it's its fifth session of losses in a row and now down nearly 20% for the month. zulu down grading to neutral this morning analysts warning slower user growth and preoccupation with bitcoin is one example of broader mismanagement. analysts made that call, joining us now dan, great to catch up with you here you also talk about some user fatigue when it comes to core products for block of course, former square what does that mean? does it mean user growth is not as rapid as it was before? does it mean that they're finding other services to use? either consumers or vendors? >> great question. thanks for having me on. so first thing, like, the issue with block or with square is that they already tapped 75% of the low income users right? 47 million user in the u.s. and how many more users can you get from here? the second issue is those users are not transacting as much or

not transacting, not increasing transaction as much as we want inflows into the cash-out aren't as, the monetization, don't think pricing, kind of flattish. talking about fatigue, you don't get that next boom for that next step in the stock, or in the cash engagement you need for that to work that's kind of the fatigue we're talking about. >> and in terms of the bitcoin story line obviously, leader jack dorsey of block is a vocal backer of bitcoin and a very big picture way. has the company using resources in that direction. how does that either distract management or how does it color the overall story? what should they otherwise be paying more attention to >> a great question. look, he's a visionary obviously he built this. amazing. we still say there's enormous potential. think about the holy grail on square, connecting the three ecosystems point of sale, cashout and after

pay, buy now pay later we are hearing that, he spends a lot of time with bitcoin very focused on bitcoin. when you don't have him fully engaged and fully in there doing everything you need to connect the ecosystem no one else is there with the vision. that's a worry too distracted right now and causing lack of innovation or too slow innovation. product launches not as fast everything that can accumulate to slower than expected growth that's our call today. >> now, the stock already, just about down 80% off its record high not an earning sport where do you think the stock should get to? >> i mean, bears of the bears think go down to 30. we have $57 price target above where it's traded. the economy -- by the way, really important none of our call is based on the economy. the economy actually takes it, turns it south, and that

consumer is going to weaken dramatically even more down side in a weaker economy, because of the low-end consumer spending power. >> yeah. fair point mostly, i guess, about kind of crowded payments that they pay thanks appreciate the time. let's get another checken ot market with the s&p tracking for third down day in a row. it is making a bit of a comeback here late in the session nerve der get too messy to the down side. at least not yet managing director at ubs private wealth management and joins us now. ally, take us inside the conversations you're having now. hearing a lot of folks say, hey, look, bond yields all of a sudden are paying you a little bit to stay safe on the other hand, are we not in the business of looking to buy equities when they're down you know, 23% off their highs? how's the risk/reward set up >> look, yesterday was a tough day. it was a tough day, because the three questions that investors had of the fed were answered they were answered in sort of a

negative way right? how, when, what? how high are we going? when are we going to get there and what is going to make you pivot? the reaction was, therefore, sort of a puking out of risk in an environment there was very little risk on to begin with bofa asset manager survey come in historical high for bearishness and cash on sidelines. that's what you're seeing. you're seeing that to the point you just made on the equity and fixed income side. we are in a very strange environment going back to history, which i know sam was talking about, and i think a lot of us use as sort of a relative benchmark setter for our investment decisions 2% of the time in 12-month rolling periods stocks and bonds have been down at the same time. the bad news, we're in that 2% of the time. good u.s. in, relative normalcy, 98% in front of us seems to not be on either equity

or bond side a lot of urgency right now. just like some stocks we just talked about fedex, block, so much negativity priced in that any prize to the upside, whether we see that in economic data, cpi, the energy crisis that could be a great time to get into the market, but you have to have your time horizon you have to be able to differentiate the shorp-term murkiness from the long-term opportunity. >> yeah. some level seems like a fairly linear process we've been going through this year. a highly valued market yields went up valuations came down now we're all maybe waiting to see how much earnings have to come down in this economy slowdown or stall or downturn whatever we're in right now. on the other hand, macrostresses building the velocity of the move in global yields. almost seems if all we're

dealing with is corporate fundamentals and discount rate, it's okay. all of a sudden we have to be on alert for some kind of macro accident, that seems to be a different story? >> yeah. look, and you pointed a lot of them out, that they're even more macro challenges micro challenges hire bolic moves in markets whether it's the dollar, whether it's interest rates we've never seen before'seven isolated all of this together means that the level and the appetite of willingness to take risk is really, really low, but to the point you made earlier you actually have fixed income yields you can buy a six-month treasury and you can pocket that yield. you can start to think about really building a portfolio on a fixed income so not only do we have an amazing amount of overwhelming uncertainty out there, but we also are starting to have opportunities we haven't seen in a while, and this gets talked

about a lot, but i really don't think people understand it or give it as much power as it should there are 15 years behind us of free money at virtually zero interest rates, and investors that have only experienced that kind of economy, which really has very few repercussions on either the macro or micro side, or professionals who might live through it. >> yeah. for sure there's -- it's definitely been a bit of a title shift, and expectations and conditions. look, the '90s tech bubble happened with yields at 5% and 6% and people managed to take rings. people have a different equation in their rheads right now for that all that means. thank you. sam, one other point maybe worth making by the time the recession is here and now obvious adeclared stocks have often done the work to the down side how does that tend to top it >> absolutely right.

the market tends to top out about seven months before the recession hits, and then it bottoms about five months before the recession ends, and usually the nber national bureau's economic research, doesn't tell us we're in recession until eight months into the recession so as a result, usually when the nber tells us we're in recession that is typically a good buying senate, because from a timing m matchup perspective, much of the news already factored in. >> talking lagging indicators, employment or something else that may be one. haven't talked about that yet. sam, appreciate the time today. as we head towards the close, market has sort of narrowed its earlier losses a little bit, but not terribly much s&p 500 on track to be down three quarters of 1% the dow slipping below the flat

line down to about 82 points nasdaq continues to be the under performer here market breadth you see there 3-1 declining to advancing u.s. dollar index making new multidecade highs. that's been a macro pressure point as well as a volatility index. fixed a little higher into the share nap does it for "closing bell." now it's scott wapner in "overtime. thank you very much. welcome to "overtime." you just heard the bells just getting started at the new york stock exchange and a biddy hour ahead stock move and everything else as always that you need to know right now. we begin, though, with our talk of the take. a risk-off atmosphere what former dallas fed richard fischer told me we are in now, and likely to stay that way. our first guest, he ay glees doubled down on his crash call for stocks britain in canter's around johnson