tv Fast Money CNBC September 22, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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richard fisher talk about this being a risk off atmosphere. >> yeah. >> i mean when a former central banker talks about it you puts you to closer to the room where they make the decisions that create the environments that he talk about. >> it is not unintended. >> that is mike sants olie with his last word. we'll back be back here. mark fisher will join us too "fast money" is next. >> tech getting hit the hardest along with stocks so the spending party is over where do investors turn for profits now. plus a face-off on capitol hill. jamie dimon scoring off with rashida tlaib saying no way his bank will stop lending to big oil and why he believes doing so would be a road to hell. and then a big upgrade for eli lilly, the stock rocketing higher the obesity drug is a potential block bluster and could be the
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holy grail for weight loss and reporting that human saw and cvs are eyeing a company this is melissa lee, on the desk tonight. in the meantime we begin with another down day on wall street. nearly a quarter of the s&p 500 hitting fresh 52-week lows and in tech once again falling harder than the other major averages as rates keep marching higher the 2-year and the 10-year higher today with you one of the traders believes that today doesn't start on wall street or washington, and half a world away and he said the trigger began in japan because of the a currency intervention by their government something they have not done since 1998 who would say this the one and only b.k what is the thesis here? >> yeah. so, getting awoken at 4:00 a.m. to a currency intervention
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as the bank of japan came out and they decided to sell u.s. dollars and buy yen. and this is about 4:00 or 5:00 eastern time in the u.s. 4:00 or 5:00 a.m so mechanically, to do that what they need to do is sell treasury bonds and as they sell treasury bonds yields go higher and what we've seen is higher yields are really bad for stocks. particularly the nasdaq. and we saw all day the nasdaq basically leading on the way down even more particularly, when ten-year yields hit about 360, at about 9:15 this morning, he saw treasury yields sell off and the nasdaq yields sold off right before the open. so this all started because of the currency intervention. i suspect they'll likely be do doing more and and that will cause rates to go higher and now i have three major parties selling bond, which is the fed, the bank of japan and the people's bank of china and there is very few buyers
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so for equity, you don't think about occurrence or what is going on in japan. but you need to me aware that rates could be going higher despite what the fed does. >> so here is the question we're 37 now and before i open it up to the group, we could see the yield curve steepen at this point. so what happened, do you think, when yield curve steepens in a bad market and economy like we have now >> yeah, it is not great let's put it that way. and it is probably bad for the banks. we saw the banks really trade off today. but think about it right now the yield curve, and say 10-years go to 4.5 and you have a flat yield curve, the banks will not earn that spread or investors will not think they could earn that spread and the economy is weakening because now they have nothing to earn and they're going to start dealing with delinquencies and defaults. so to me ground zero for this is
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the banks and if you look at a long term of xlf or jp morgan, it is on the trend line so it is something to watch for sure. >> well i would take the other side of that, that banks are approximately for the 210 spread which they are not they are much, much shorter. so this kind of yield curve, this spike in the -- the very sharp slope in the front end of the yield curve is actually quite good for them. i think you'll see net interest income and margins much higher although b.k. did touch on if people think they're a 210 spread proxy. >> which is what they have said. >> and i think they are not. but i do have one other question though, relating back to the yen. do you see this as a george soros 1992 british pound kind of moment what is the magnitude of this -- of the floor they're trying to put under the yen?
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>> well, so this is absolutely a moment that things could go nonlinear in currency and bond markets. there is no question about that. the bank of japan did not put a price, everybody thought it was 145, what they said it was all about the volatility so from my view that leaves it wide open for it to go higher and i think at the very least, this is the fuel and the catalyst for one of those moments like you saw that soros made off the british pound and you need to wall the rmb and the taiwan dollar all are now right on the edge of having one of the big linear nonparabolic moves. >> people are thinking i don't care about the yen and i don't know about currency but you do care about stocks and what your apple is doing and what your meta is doing et cetera, et cetera and the ten-year yield is where it is at when it comes to the direction of this trade. >> and listen, you could map this destruction in high growth high valuation tech going back to late last year when rates started coming off the map a
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little bit, right. and so the cost of capital, there is a whole host of things that have changed in how we value stocks so that is going on for more than a year here. a lot of stocks, dozens if not hundreds have been cut in half for all intents and purposes they're crashed and we talked about it a dozen of times over the last few months or so. we're waiting on a handful of stocks to correct in a day like today where stocks and tim nailed the semi trade and has over the last few weeks. they were not particularly good today, okay. and to me that is a leading indicator when i think about tech but what outperformed today? apple. we're waiting on a handful of names as it relates to tech. and the one thing about jp morgan, bk is 100% correct if you draw a line from the 2011 lows in jp morgan, that is the tempest in the teapot, the london wlal and you do it on a log basis we're very near a long-term support level and it
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also coincides the up trend with the gap from late 2020 when we had the vaccine news and it was off to the races so to me i find jp morgan under-performance all year has been saying something about where we are and if you think about it, that is great. that is net interest margins, think about all of the stuff in the capital markets that are just not doing particularly well here i think this stock is going to fill in that gap back towards 104 and that means it is growgrowin a long-term up trend and you could extrapolate that to as it related to capital and housing and markets and i don't think that is a great sign for the broader stock market. >> okay. i'm long i think that it will matter. but i think that -- as long as most people, not most, but the overwhelming majority of people still have jobs, right, that the consumer isn't gone. >> it is an overwhelming majority of people because we're going to see unemployment
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higher. >> absolutely. i think we are actually might see a white-collar unemployment reception as opposed to a blue-collar unemployment recession. right. i think that the amount of jobs that are still -- that blue-collar jobs that need to be filled is so much higher than the overhiring that was done in the white collar jobs. >> so is that worse for the economy. >> it depends on what you're look for is it worse for a walmart or i would say no is it worse for -- >> it might be better. >> for those, yes, it is worse i think we're going to be looking at a different kind of recession. >> it is a disaster for the economy. if we have a white-collar unemployment sort of thing, when you think about where all of the wages have come and this is one of the stickiest parts of inflation when you think about that, it is on the lower end and a lot of companies that are filling jobs or having a hard time filling jobs and pushing the wages up, that's great for low end workers.
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they have not gotten a wage increase in a very long time in america. but prior to -- >> that is not true. that is not true. >> it is true. the data suggested it is true. and so to me if you take out purchasing power for the higher end here, to me that is just a really bad scenario, especially at a time when you see housing roll over and where are most homes owned, in the upper strata i think that would be a very bad thing. >> i mean, if we are going to see the ten-year yield bk, go higher, because qt is just in its baby stages right now. we don't really know what the full impact is going to be >> right. >> we're already seeing mortgage rates, you know, up for seven straight weeks or some crazy stat like that this sort of talk of a white-collar recession, it is very provocative i think it is troubling. if you pair that with the damage that you will see in housing >> yeah, i couldn't agree more with the white-collar recession.
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it is what the fed has said they wanted i mean, when the stock market rallied, jay powell changed his speech to make sure the stock market went down recently neel kashkari was happy to see the stock market go down. this is what their saying. they're saying they want housing prices to go down. generally those are the type of things that are white-collar wealth effect. so 100%, if you anything you want to buy main street and sell wall street. >> and the fed is putting the u.s. in a danger zone. peter is a stascnbc contributor and i know you've been listening in on our conversation so what does the danger point look like from your vantage point. >> i'm okay with the destination wanting to take the fed fund rate and call it four-ish. the problem i have is the rapid and ferocious velocity at when ch they are tightening monet your a policy.
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and while they want to talk about the lead and lag variables and it takes time for this to flow through, i think the speed at which their hiking is the biggest risk and i that i that we're beginning to feel the beginning of it. and from the hikes from here, i think that things start to really become precarious and more accidents to -- have the potential of taking place. >> so basically, just sort of piecing together you've been on the show many times, the fed is covering up its mistake with another policy mistake? two wrongs don't make a right at this point and it is going to be even worse in terms of the outcome? >> yes and but this is not going to be the first time just look at the greenspan response to the tech bubble cutting rates to 1% at the time was unprecedented. and then he left it there and then raised it all the way up to 5.25 that is in a measured pace but
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that was a sharp rise in interest rates on top of very over levered housing market. and the economy as a whole and as i said it before on the show, that has been very dependent on low interest rates and economic behavior has been very depentent on low interest rates and valuation on whether it is securities or paintings or cars, have been predicated on very low interest rates so, just again the repeating of this move is the biggest risk. >> peter, it is karen. thanks for being on. i love to read your commentary do you think that if you see another similar inflation number to what we just recently saw what would you advise the fed to do if we're still pretty hot >> i still think that the fed needs to slow down the rate. they could still continue on with their destination but the rate of the increases i think needs to slow. and hot inflation number, if it
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is driven by rents, well, that is looking at the rearview mirror because rental increases are slowing on a year-over-year basis. so the fed is going this way with the way they're viewing the biggest component of the cpi when reality it is moderating. so i don't think they should change their approach here the pace for sure they need to slow >> hey, peter, b.k i have a question outside of inflation. say your right, and i happen to agree that the pace they're raising is too much and creating events like we talked about at the top of the shore if it is overtightening, where is the unemployment rate some folks said it plight be 4.5% but if you look back in history with inflation at those rates, what volker had to do, he had 11% unemployment so where do you see the inflation rate in this and how
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does that impact the economy >> i think the unemployment rate goes north of 5. i was listening to what you were talking about before and i think that the biggest risk to markets is more of an earnings recession rather than an economic recession. and i say that because even if the unemployment rate will rise, maybe they don't accelerate from here they have very much embedded right now at this 4% to 6% range so i think there is more down side rink risk to the earnings story than there is to actual gdp. >> that is interesting peter, thank you for joining us. peter of bleakly appropriately named for his outlook. so an earnings recession and all of the sticky parts will stick and then there will be less demand on top of that for the product. >> and yeah and again we talked about this last night, we'll see that in some of the enterprise
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companies and i think apple and microsoft might do jay powell a huge favor by actually guiding down having investors kind of re-set their expectations for again those two stocks are $4 trillion in market cap and they are really holding up the value of the s&p 500. and i mean that because rather than piecing it out and seeing how things go, maybe set some very cautious expectations, let investors re-set if they are trying to hit the stock market, they actually now have to folks on a handful of stocks not just the monolith that is the stock market because to me we already went through this the top ten stocks have a much higher multiple than the other s&p 500 and that is the only way you'll get investors attention by the stock market as a whole. >> how do you think about the multiple, the biggest cap tech stocks out there relative to the overall market >> i mean, overvalued i guess is the simplest thing if you look back, where was the p.e. ratio at the lows in the
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80s. it was 7 i'm not saying we go back there. but even if we're lower from here, say we go to a p.e. of 12, you're talking about much lower prices if you're going to get rates above 4.5%, 5% or 6% that is the biggest concern here is that rates might be doing their own thing, and having knock on effects to the economy and i agree with dan and so you actually have to get the index low tore make people pay attention. >> we have an earnings alert here on costco shares extending the losses from today's losses despite beating revenue estimates for the quarter. courtney reagan is here to take us inside of the numbers. >> putting up another steady quarter. as you note, shares are down more than typical in response to the results. comparable sales grew 14% for this 16-week quarter up nearly 16% in just the united states if you exclude -- if you pull out that region
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e-commerce is up more than 7%. gas price inflation is responsible for about positive 3% of that total comp growth membership revenue grew 7.5% over last year and renewal rates hit all-time highs, more than 90% for worldwide renewal rates and higher in the u.s. and canada at 92.6% and on the call just now richard said there are no plans for a membership fee increase at this time. sam's club did just announce an increase gross margin excluding membership fees that was 10.2% operating margin 3.5%. both relatively in line with consensus and inventories of about 26%. some of that is likely inflation. going into the report, stifle jeffrey and bank of america among the firms with buyer ratings even with some of the higher evaluation, analysts point to the sustainability of the sales sh and the ablility to
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pass through inflation to the loyal customers. >> karen, how do you think of costco in an inflationary environment is it more immune than others. >> i think it is better able than others, the scale for one thing. and i mean, just execution is always flawless. i think that here, i know, that obviously that was a decent quarter. nothing to not like about it this is just the multiple is just too high. right. it is in the low 30s and it does deserve a premium multiple for sure. they've earned it year in and year out but at some point i guess the market just said i don't care if you're a lulu or costco, we can't pay a multiple like that. >> forward is 34. >> so we're talking about really consistent, you know, like double-digit earnings growth year-over-year, they have that imbedded membership comment which is great for margins, so on the revenue side we're seeing high single-digit risen growth
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so your point, what are we paying 30 times for. we have this conversation last night. i don't know they are subject to ape lot of the inflationary issues as it relates to wages and supply chains and all of that sort of stuff. so to me if we are going into a re session, we've been talking about it i have to assume that their results get worse from an earnings and a margin stand point. they might get a larger increase of the retail pie because as walmart told us a few weeks ago they're seeing a new customer trade down a little bit. but again, if we're talking about a stock market that needs to be rerated and there is a handful of stocks, this is a $200 billion market cap company that does a quarter of a trillion dollars in sales a year trading at 33 times this year and 30 times next, it is too expe expensive. >> what kind of consumer is a costco consumer? >> i mean, it is a big spectrum, from people just really wanting to save money, they want to buy in bulk, they want to do whatever they can, gas in particular, to people who think it is really fun.
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>> b.k., is this a no touch for you. i'm channeling you and i think you would say i wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole but i do like the samples. >> now i don't have to say anything i love the sample in the aisles and i'm a member and i'm also a member of sam's club too normally, in this environment, i would say, hey, may this is a place to hide. but you've got the multiple and my biggest concern, the risk to this is not even margins, it is that we haven't seen any demand destruction which is what everybody is trying to look for. we haven't seen it out of ford this week. there is no demand destruction this is a good quarter they had earnings and sales year-over-year up even when you are inflation adjusted so my concern is at 30 times when demand starts to decline, this stock gets hit pretty hard. >> up next, shares of cano health an skrusive interview with the
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ceo is up next and plus dimon in the rough, defending fossil fuels befor congress but the move brought some representative rage the details when "fast money" returns. ♪♪ welcome to life in the new open web. where innovation keeps pace with imagination and the future arrives daily. viant is pioneering a new approach to media combining ai with human insight. creating new ways to reach customers and new standards of measurement, both on and offline. viant. built for the new open web. built for now.
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welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of health care provider cano health surging more than 30% on reports that humana and cvs are highing the company. joining frus the conference in san diego, contessa brewer with the ceo. contessa >> melissa, thank you very much. so you saw cano health shares close up 32% today on the news that humana is making or could make a bid for the company. marleau hernandez joins me now, the ceo. talk about where you stand with humana and where things are going. >> i think humana is a great partner. we've been working for many years and i'm not going to comment on the rumors. but we're really excited about our momentum, about value we're bringing to patients and committed to that long-term value creation. >> you now have nine states
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where your operating primary care centers, health care centers. >> that is right. >> and puerto rico talk about your model and why this is something that might be a good fit for a company like humana >> well there is so much interest because value based care is the present and the future it is also very scarce when you're meeting patients, where they want to be met, when providers, when payers, when you could get measurably better care at a lower cost, you need technology, you need infrastructure, you need the necessary management and processes and that gets developed throughout the years you see a lot of companies that are jumping in from retail, you got companies in from the other health care, because the growth and the demand is in the space and the sector >> we've seen a lot of other consolidation mergers and acquisitions amazon going to buy the parent
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of one medical announced this summer and cvs health to buy signify and that is a big play for home health care is humana the only company right now that is circling around you and looking at cano health as a potential great acquisition? >> well there is a lot of companies that are interested if the space for sure and the reason is what i just mentioned, i mean you get these conversions between retail, consumerism, you also have got, again, where patients are being met and that is at the primary care base. we don't have enough of it and at cano health, there is not too much others that are just in the space period but we're the only ones who have ever shown a mortality reduction among our patients or show a covid specific mortality we talked about it last year. and we're the only one that has bent the cost of care over time and that is what happens when you have a model that invests in primary care and prevention.
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but again, there is lots to work with there. >> so you're saving money on the at -- on the acute care? >> that is right and it is not rocket science. >> and i have to ask you, because you went public in 2020. -- put money on your board with trujillo who is the leader of the latitude conference where we are now. what role have your ooinvestors pushed to make a sale and they have very large shareholders. >> they have been very specific in their letters and they've praised the performance. where we stand in terms of the industry an the long-term tail winds. our board -- >> but this is your baby cano health do you want to sell it. >> it is listen, we're a public company
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when we stepped into the public realm, we knew that we're on sale every day by definition as a public company. and it is about that long-term value creation and we're kmitsed to that mission and the vision of the company. >> marlow hernandez, thank you we'll be looking for the news to break here melissa. >> thank you very much contessa brewer karen, your in cvs so i'm w wondering what you think of a potential deal here. >> i don't know if the ftc would look at amazon and cvs but clearly the landscape is changing rapidly and there is a land grab. and he was trying to dodge the question but i think without really wanting to dodge the question i read they're for sale, it is a heated battle for multiple parties it sounds like humana has the inside track because of their relationship maybe they'll keep him on if he's -- when you have that shareholder base and they're not saying a thing, at the moment i
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feel like they're comfortable with what is happening >> right >> it is interesting, the ceo he just mentioned technology is part of the this component and when you think about a company like cvs, i just have a long conversation with the ceo of a company calledford x sidewalk labs and they're using ai to sut software together with a physical presence like with doctors and stuff like that. all of that is coming and i think that is a next wave of innovation that is the in the private markets. mark bennyoff is an investor in a company like that. there is a lot of interesting stuch going on in health tech. it is interesting to see if the big companies will make a big move to kind of really come into the modern age and use some of this tech that is working in other industries. >> you're making this point that this is a company that went public via spac during the heyday and here we are even with this
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huge pop, it is trading below that $10 mark. you have to wonder about all of the other spacs that have gone public at the height of the spac boom that are trading below that spak spac price and maybe this the fate of a lot of them as well >> well it is extraordinary, right. that you have -- it sounds from the interview that there are multiple parties that are interested in this company and yet you still can't get up to the level that it went public at that sells a lot about what that spac bubble was like and so i think maybe this is the one that actually makes it out but as we know, sadly, most of them havenot >> the rest of them would kill to be where cano is right now. >> 8 and change. >> and it could go higher. >> and the after hours is up 6.7% here is what is coming up in next. >> congress concern, jamie dimon feeling the heat on capitol hill
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as fossil fuel funding come news focus. why one lawmaker was calling for an ask the exodus. and shares of eli lilly getting a boost as an analyst gives it a big thumbs up. so is this pharma stock the right medicine for your portfolio? you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. so, you're 45. that's the perfect age to see some old friends, explore new worlds, and to start screening for colon cancer. yep. with colon cancer rising in adults under 50, the american cancer society recommends starting to screen earlier, at age 45. i'm cologuard, a noninvasive way to screen at home, on your schedule. and i find 92% of colon cancers. i'm for people 45+ at average risk for colon cancer,
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that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity welcome back to "fast money. the ceos of america's biggest banks finish up the second day of testimony on capitol hill one of the more compelling exchanges happened yesterday went rashida tlaib and jamie dimon. representative tlaib wanted to know if in an effort to combat
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climate change the ceos would commit to stop lending money to gas and oil companies. >> does your bank have a policy against lending new oil and gas products mr. dimon? >> absolutely not. and that would be the road to hell for america >> yeah. that is fine sir, you know what everybody who has student loans has a bank account with your bank should probably take out their account and close their account. in fact, that you're not oven there to help relieve many of the folks that are in debt extreme debt because of student loan debt and you're out there criticizing it >> so, is this whole esg discussion gone too far. here is the former ceo of black rock and founder of roomy. tariq, great to get your take on this esg started out with many good intentions the conversation has gone very far at this point to the point where we have this congress woman challenging jamie dimon saying you should stop funding
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oil and gas investments. what is your take on where we are right now with esg >> well, i would say, i don't know that what she said is constituting esg i think she means well in the sense trshe's trying to address climate change they need to take enough pain from a marketing and p.r. perspective that it is greater than the profit on that lending book and then that takes a long time and number two even if they did get to that point, they'll sell that business to someone else there is a lot of other banks out there. the shadow banking is over $100 trillion so we're moving stuff around but i don't think it changes the emissions profile. >> how do you think what has gone on with energy prices and energy as an investment finally a winning investment here in esg investing? do you think that challenge this is movement in any way >> on some level, yes. but the challenge about esg as practice so far is it is
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generally market marketing is nonbinding marketing and a bunch of products that kind of rearrange things that already exist like publicly traded shares because you could segment the product to green people and in fact, it is such successful marketing we're seeing right now doing the own version. anti-esg funds it reminds me of starbucks and black rifle coffee with a machine gun on this logo it is -- it is issues getting polarized and people will try to buy the ones that aligns with their values and that is what is going on with esg. it is just a status quo presented differently. >> mr. fancy, which i wanted to say because it is just a good name do you think that the pendulum seems to me is just starting to swing of pushback against esg, what we think of as esg investing. do you think we're going to see the pendulum continue to swing
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further? >> i think so. i mean it is hard to escape the fact that it is now entered the sort of u.s. political discourse. which tends to look like wwf wrestling from the '90s. it is not clear that -- and even in that discussion, it is not clear that anyone is really talking about what happened in banking. the congresswoman doesn't understand the market system well enough to know that if jp morgan doesn't do it, someone else possibly will that is how the market system is designed to operate. but i think jp morgan and the leaders in the financial services industry has done a disservice by not saying that. if you stop us doing it, someone else will do it and you need a systemic resolution and that will require the government and i think esg is unfortunately markar aiding as business's answer to destroying public faith and every year and sustain increases and increase as long side carbon emission and inequality the idea that esg was it was
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supposed to be good for the planet and good for asset managers spoiler alert, only one of those has happened so far and it is not the first two. >> tariq, it is great to get your take on this. lope to have you back. tariq fancy. roomy. not to mention not funding fossil fuels, b.k., is terrible when it comes to energy security of the united states i mean, there is -- if we've learned one thing out of russia's invasion into ukraine and what going on in europe, you need a portfolio of energy resources. >> precisely and i would love it if somebody in the government, congress or whatever from both sides would have a rational discussion and say hey we want to bet away from fossil fuels whether it is climate change or you like the idea of smelling corn chips coming out of your tailpipe. i don't care but here is the path to it let's not cut off our oil supply and put itself at risk let's have that path and whatever it is, have a clear
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path and let's fund that but instead we get this in fighting and we end up here today. >> i think it is a very important to underscore what tariq said and that is it is only good for the asset managers, having been you know, the cio of sustaining investment at block rock. that is telling and that you should understand what you're buying and what you're buying into. >> and i think that is a big -- there is a silver lining of this whole discussion and i think the way you framed it is pretty good it is gone off the rails on both sides. within oun side we have people that don't believe in climate change and people demonizing a bank that is trying to do a whole heck of a lot of things and they don't want to be in the middle of a political argument here and when you think about investors and i think that is what the congress person was trying to get at, if you care about those sort of issues, speak with your wallet and this
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is the movement of the esg movement and it is gone off the rails and your point about this, i think it is become apparent especially if you live in europe, but energy as a point of national security, that is something that probably it doesn't trump climate issues but it does kind of -- we should be very focused on finding some stuff like b.k. just said where we could have intelligent conversations an figure it out. >> coming up, eli lilly getting some love. why this could be the right prescription for your portfolio. and plus shares of block getting rocked after a name change and the drop as options traders piling in. more on that when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money. and look who is here on set. bonawyn has made it, ladies and gentlemen. >> nice to see you. >> in the traffic, it is the best two weeks so kwwe'll get it on with it. i'm glad you made it here safely. >> eli lilly, upgrading to a buy saying it could be the biggest drug ever, the best-selling drug in history for weight. one of our traders said this could be the holy grail for
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weight loss. karen, you loved everything about this call. >> yes, i did. i loved everything about this call i am long eli lilly and nova nordis this is not a hidden secret, right. the appetite is supposed to be a gigantic drug, either as a diabetes drug, and as a weight loss drug under a different name same thing basically so what the basis of the piece was, this will drive lilly and that the revenue guidance should be much higher than where it is right now. $25 billion is what they were thinking and so if they put a big multiple on it i will say they do put a big multiple on it to get to that pretty high number i don't know if it will get there but i think this is the kind of thing where you buy the rumor and we're not going to see the drug widespread until next year but i mean, it is an amazing product. when you think about 21% average
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body weight loss, that is enormous with very few side effects and very positive diabetes reversals. >> right >> that is staggering. plus they have some other drugs, alzheimer's, i don't count that in the story but this drug is the holy grail. and so i think buying it in front of the release and maybe selling it on the release, but we'll see that early next year. >> the analysts makes point that the alzheimer's drug while it could be promising is not at all within the model and it would be sort of like a kicker down the road if it actually was effective. bonawyn, what do you think of lilly? >> there is no argument in terms of the valuation it is expensive. but when you start to drill down into the numbers, if you look at $25 billion, you look at 20% net margins and shares outstanding and that gets you about $5 a share before slapping the multiple on there. and if you look at penetration that they would need in order to achieve these numbers, they're
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predicating their guidance on a 1% to 5% penetration in terms of obesity cases. so while it is aggressive from a valuation standpoint, the underlying assumptions are making a compelling case. >> coming up, getting blocks shares sinking as analysts lose interest in the move as options traders piling in. we have the details next. and throughout hispanic heritage month we're celebrating our contributors here is the ceo of project verity. >> it is very important to be proud of my heritage and proud of who i am. we are uniquely strong and we need to be proud of that and show case our strengths. in the workplace and at home from my own upbringing, having to work in my father's business and learning how to understand about logistics and warehouse and production, i have taken that and applied a lot of those onlenethughout my own career
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to go beyond ordinary etfs. and strengthen client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. you'll always remember buying your first car.
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and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. welcome back to "fast money. talk about a square peg in a round hole shares of payment company block for formerly known as square dropped after an analyst downgrade
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citing user fatigue and inflows and make something moves in the name mike khouw has the action. >> we saw about one times the average daily put volume in block. that was a result of a large put spread, the november 57.5, 50 put spread traded. the trader bought those 57.5 on monday and realized a profit and their taking that and some more to bet the stock could be down as much as 19% by november expiration. >> thank you mike. for more "options action" tune in tomorrow at 5:30. ratings coming in hot for the nfl first game so the py--py labylais next when "fast money" returns good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help!
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sold that people would show up >> so my parents putz their credit card in amazon probably like four years ago so my dad really likes football so ease going to watch this thursday night game do you think he has any idea how to watch his streaming prime membership like this is -- this has the potential to be a disaster >> from tv to streaming to betting it seems like -- >> what do we call that? fast fire. >> kind of. >> it wasn't a call on the stock. >> it could be a disaster. >> but i just think from the nfl viewing experience, here is good news, six years younger, that is an audience that likes to watch things on your phone i love watching nfl football on an 85 inch screen. >> and you could do that and stre stream too. >> and you look at the monday and sunday night games, you feel like it is not that -- >> i can't drive but i can
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stream that is the good news. if you look at their prime membership additions on the back of this, that is what the crutch of this is and whether or not you would watch it or not, i don't think they care. if you're signing up for the service, paying for the service, ultimately that is where the dollars make sense. >> content is king, right, b.k that is one reason to watch anything, whether it be on streaming or liniar tv >> at least watch anything live these days that is one of the things that most people -- the only thing pa people watch live. and to bonawyn's point, this is a advertising platform all they want to do is get more users to advertise to you. so it doesn't matter if you watch the game or not. and i'm sorry, dan, that your parents have problems but their still going to get ads on what to buy on amazon >> oh, the demise of linear tv i mean, yeah >> yeah. >> i remember when that was just either cbs sports and then it was fox for a while and then now it is hard to find things that
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are streaming. >> right >> where it is streaming. >> so you're in dan's camp in terms of it is hafrd to find things and the audience won't show up in big numbers >> i guess -- yes, they will be fragmented but i just think that the linear tv lock, that was a money machine. sports if they're not going to have as much. t. it is going to be harder to ge >> yes >> more expensive. >> up next, final trades
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time for the final trade brian kelly. >> for me rates going higher you buy tvt. >> bonawyn. >> i would say long volatility of 20 to 30 was the range when you thought soft landing was a possibility and you might increase that rate. >> by the way, it tooks how long to get here? >> two hours. >> wow karen? >> yeah. from that interview with contessa, i think they're for sale cano health. and when you have a lot of giant companies going after a relatively small company, i think you could get some good upside from here. >> probably like three miles or something, the distance. >> do you want to give up and
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walk. >> 3.3 >> dan >> what is this call time? is it 4:45. >> it was 45 minutes earlier. >> last night it was govt and i'm probably a sleofelr [ inaudible ]. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcomed to "mad money" and welcome to a special san francisco edition of cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but to -- call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet yes @jimcramer. we love coming out her
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