the dollar continues to get worse, there's part of your story, too joe? >> low-risk set-up in dollar general, ticker symbol dg. you could buy it against 225 >> quickly, enjenny? >> lamar advertising, 5.7% dividend yield super safe business, even with the rough economy. >> good stuff. i'll see you in overtime the exchange begins right now. >> scott, thank you very much, welcome, everybody, to "the exchange." i'm tyler mathisen and the markets are closing out a down week with another big drop history-making in some ways. we've got the dow dropp ping bl $30,000, below its june lows the dow and s&p are now both below their june lows or have done so in today's trade the s&p a little bit back up since that happened. some big-name firms cutting their market expectations. and it's not just stocks, as scott and the team were talking about there, oil falling, too,

below $80 a barrel for the first time since january, and that was before russia invaded ukraine. is $60 the next stop for oil and advice on how to survive higher rates three buys and a bail. we've got that, but we begin with the selling on the street and dom chu has some very, very nasty numbers. >> it's turmoil, but it's stabilized a little bit. you mentioned all of those superlatives i've got another one that you may not believe. first of all, we'll start with the numbers. dow industrials down 585 points at the lows of the session, we were down roughly 700-some points again, trying to find some stability, but still, it's 2% downside, similar percentage move for the s&p 500, now below 3,700, 3679 the last trade there, down 78 handles and the nasdaq composite down similar amount as well so all of these indices with the nasdaq composite down 228 are lower on the session tyler mentioned some of those lows, relatively speaking. the dow industrials now below

where it was in the june levels. so again, some traders call it a bear market. down about 20% but here's something that you may have missed. the dow industrials at 29491 at one point today, were at a level that was pretty much at where it was all the way back pre-pandemic in february of 2020 so think about it this way in the entirety of the pandemic lows and the recovery since then, we've lost it all. it's like we just erased the last two years the market is exactly where it was in february of 2020 before the pandemic even started. now take a look at some of the other areas. interest rates the two-year treasury note yield has been spiking, but it's the speed at which it's gone up. look at how far the ramp-up has been here. we'll go all the way back to 2007 to see when the yields were that high. it's that speed. watch those two-year note yields because of that, the selling

pressure has been everywhere, not just in stocks, but also, of course, in government bonds. it's in been in places like oil, in copper, in gold, it's been in wheat, it's been in bitcoin. everything is lower on the session so far on the commodity and cryptocurrency complex but it's not all doom and gloom. let's balance it out a little bit with some green on the screen today that's domino's pizza. analysts at bmo capital markets have upgraded this stock to an outperform or buy rating they think a lot of the bad news is priced in a positive bit of news for you on an otherwise bad day. back over to you >> domino's pizza from dom, thanks as investors search for clues to the market's next move, fed chair jay powell is giving them three simple words, read the dots steve liesman looking like he's ready for the weekend, but like michael corleone in the godfather, we keep pulling you back in. dots talk to me

>> a little bit of work left to do before the weekend, tyler but one of the most remarkable parts of that fed meeting this week, not only the fed sharply raising its forecast for the funds rate to 3.6%, but that fed share powell embraced that forecast he called it likely and a plausible path in the words of former pimco economist paul mcculley, he said powell is now hugging the dots three months ago, powell advised investors to take those dots with a grain of salt one reason for the change might be, widespread among fed officials on the path. most you can see there, that cluster in 2023 and 2022, only down 50 basis points compare that to the next year. and that may be gives powell more confidence now to speak for the committee than he normally does but there could be more going on luke crandle tells me, it feels like it's gone from an exercise in unfiltered transparency, that is, they were randomly given in, to a more curative communications tool. whatever it is, it looks to be

working. the peak funds rate now at 469 today, from may 2023 the two-year yield, also as you know, surging well above 420 it seems important now you've got to follow the dots. investors should also be aware that they can be wildly off. a year ago, the fed forecast the funds rate at 1.34%. we're likely to end the year north of 4%. >> it's really quite amazing how things have happened did you happen to kcatch jeremy siegel 19 last hour? he was channeling kjim cramer o rick santelli in his -- basically, an attack on the fed. >> the this idea that the fed is not paying attention to what's going on in the economy. you know it's out there. the trouble for the fed is it has its credibility on the line. i have a lot of sympathy for what jeremy said

we have barry stern llick on. the trouble is, it's got to show up in the numbers and it's got to show up in the consumer prize index. i don't think the fed. i can take into account what it's hearing from ceos, but it's got to be driven by the data and unfortunately, it's a bit of maybe an unvoidable accident in the sense that the data will be late we'll see -- you remember, tyler, i offered chair powell the opportunity to say that it's possible that they would pause, and he said, yeah, maybe, but now is not the time. they still have a lot of work to do i think, tyler bhmaybe, at a 4% range, they might be able to pause and look around before heading to 4.6, but if they do not get help or show slack, i think they might be headed to that 4.6 range >> thank you very much, steve lie liesman.

the yield on the ten-year now hitting its highest level in more than a decade rick santelli is at the cme with more on the move in rates and currencies and rick, when i said that siegel was potentially channeling his inner rick santelli, i said it with all due affection to you, because he was as passionate as i have ever seen him, as you so often are. >> it just -- it blows my mind that central banks have done everything in their power over the last several decades to try to mitigate the true feeling of pain we should have all been inflicted with and yet, here we get three helpings and what's more, there's no common sense here congratulations to dr. siegel. i completely agree with everything he said, when you can't even press a little common sense into strategies being dominated by central banks, that govern everyone person in the planet steve said it best

steve said, you've got to hug the dots you've got the follow the dots yet the dots are highly inaccurate it's like the blind leading the blind, i'm sorry all right, ten-year, let's look at ten-year, let's standardize the charts let's make this easy for viewers. we'll look at several ten-year yields over ten years. look at our ten-year over a ten-year chart see how the right side is way higher than the left it's been more than ten years. let's look at bund yields, almost exactly ten years guilt years, way more than ten years. here's something interesting with guilt years i love dom, he's as smooth as silk, dom chu. he was talking about, our two-year has accelerated consider this the guilt was on august 5th, tyler, it was at 1.8. 180, okay? it is currently over double that in less than two months? that's what i call wild. i couldn't even use the ten-year for the next three charts, so i

said, let's do 30-year charts. here's a 30-year chart on the dollar index here's a 30-year chart on the dollar yen here's a 30-year chart on the pound versus the dollar. these are big moves and we're all paying the price, because central banks didn't have the courage to do the right thing. they tried to make it easy, they tried to manipulate markets, and you could only squeeze a water balloon so long before it pops out somewhere else and right now our ip tina, rest in peace, there's no alternative anybody who has left their money in stocks realize s tina is dead >> so talk us through what -- because i think people often need to be reminded. how important the rise in strength in the dollar is. and what it will mean to the u.s. economy and to u.s. consumers. >> you know, the foreign exchange market is the only way

that investors and their money could get at real-risk areas if you're managing interest rates, how do you get the relevance back through interest rate differentials. by devaluing the currency, because you've managed your interest rates, like the japanese have. and what's the payoff here well, those of us that live within the borders of the u.s. are going to find that everything that comes in, we're going to get a little better deal than everybody else because our dollar is strong the problem is everybody has pointed out over the last several days, because we're the best business channel there is, is there's a large segment many bring up the s&p. 30% of the s&p is overseas financial activity when the dollar is strong, that is going to suffer so the s&p side, that international investment will go down but at the end of the day, i'm sorry, i believe in home field advantage. i believe that people in this country are getting some benefits to the strong dollars the problem is is that the fed, so dominated by what it's doing,

just can't even look and see that the global recession is going to make many of the issues they're most afraid of much less fearful here, much more fearful outside the u.s. >> rick santelli, thanks very much we appreciate your insights, as always in times of economic uncertainty, investors typically turn todefensive stocks, but our next guest says the time for that play has come and gone. so where is he finding value this far into this bear market let's bring in our friend, andrew slimmen, managing director and senior portfolio manager at morgan stanley investment management. andrew, welcome. good to see you. you've heard a lot of conversation here so far at the top of this broadcast. let me get your overall reaction to what's happening in the markets today, and what steve and rick and dom chu have said at the top of the broadcast. [ inaudible ] -- damaging effects of a tightening fed,

which has leading to continued p\e compression. and with the two-year north of 4%, that's a very attractive alternative to stocks and stock yields and that's going to continue to compress the stock market, at least for a while until we get some relief in interest rates, wherever that comes. >> you say that the time for investing in so-called defensive stocks consumer staples, health care, and most notably energy, that the kind for those kind of plays is passed. why do you say that. >> the time to buy defensive is before you have a bear market, not when you're down 22% in a bear market. and down 22% really masks the damage that we have seen in stocks because the top ten stocks are only down 11% that means the other 490, there are just so many good quality

companies that are down that have a little more cylicality to their business than defensives i'm not aub the next 12 days, but over the next 12 months, it's highly likely you'll find good-quality companies that are down that magnitude, you'll have a good return over the next 12 months given the damage they've already experienced. so the damage they spleernsed, i want to come back to energy in just a minute. but what you're arguing for here are exactly companies that have a cyclical component to them so that as the economy may turn, eventually, they will lead the way out and three of those companies are our age, the former restoration hardware, home depot, and bb financial, which is a silicon valley bank why those three? what are the standout qualities

that unite them >> sure, i've been in this business a long time and i've made the most money buying fear and selling greed. and fear and also finding companies that have been market leaders and generated excellent returns over time, but have fallen out of favor temporarily. their valuations have come down to very low levels maybe even cut guidance so expectations are lower and then assessing whether their problems are structural or cyclical and if in fact, at some point the next year, the fed begins to ease up on what they're doing, these stocks are down so much and their p\es are so low that they have a chance for actually p\e expansion. and i think the risk next year

is that earnings guidance could for the market overall could be too high, and that will come down, but p\es from many stocks have a chance to lift. not for the s&p overall, but for many stocks welcome it could lift if the fed takes their foot off the break, because they're trading barely above single digits >> let's have a final word on energy you said you like to buy fear and sell greed i guess you would put energy in the category of greed. those stocks as a group are up about 50% this year. not so -- not doing so well lately we've had oil going down, down, down so, sell energy. >> yeah. >> so, don't forget, the energy futures curve went negative a year and a half ago. there was a glut of oil. everyone -- these stocks were doomed and the yields were very high now they've done their best. and tyler, you know as well as i

do, it ain't where it's been, it's where it's going. it seems to me is fed is either going to do two things one, they're going to engineer a slowdown or they're going to engineer a recession and either of those outcomes is not very good for energy prices, and it's the best-performing group. so i think you're in the late inning of owning the stock i would rather go into something that's down a lot, that offers a lot of upside, and hope to god i'm not too late into a group that's done very, very well. i think the risk/reward in some of these consumer areas is far better than in energy that's done very well, because where will we be a year from now and i think it's more likely consumer stocks will be higher than energy stocks >> a very clearly stated case. andrew, always good to see you been a wile. glad to have you back.

coming up, they say 80 is the now 60, speaking of energy, or at least for oil it may be. up next, we'll look at where crude prices go from here as they fall from their lowest level since january, down below 80 a barrel. plus, with rates hitting multi-year highs, buying financials should be a no-brainer we've got a special financials addition of three buys and a bail ahead and as we head to the break, meantime, let's get a quick check on the markets the dow well off the lows o720 points down, but still half of a thousand points lower right now. there you see the s&p 500, nasdaq, and russell down below 30,000

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>> welcome back to the schaing, everybody. global recession fears plunging crude below $80 a barrel there you see it at $79.16 investors fearing that the market will suffer from demand destruction as central banks around the world continue to raise rates. our next guest says lower demand doesn't necessarily mean lower prices joining us now, francisco blanche, he is head of global

commodity and derivative search for b of a securities. francisco, welcome back. good to have you with us i take it you see a looming sort of balance in supply and demand that will keep prices roughly where they are today, in the $80 a barrel area, or am i misunderstanding >> we are more on the constructive side when it comes to energy, because we see three factors that could push prices higher first, we think at some point over the next two, three, four months, china will start reopening its economy, as we've seen already in hong kong. and that's going to lead to a big surge in domestic demand for international air travel demand within asia. and globally, it's going to drive that consumption up. so we expect asia to essentially deliver almost 90% of growth in

2023, in terms of global -- incremental global consumption second element here is really around substitution. we've had very high natural gas prices in europe we have record-high thermal coal prices and we believe there'll be substitution into oil, because, again, when coal is trading over $100 barrel an oil, and residual fuel is trading in the 60s, actually, that means that oil is a lot cheaper in power generation than just generally across the board, compared to other fuels. the third element here is russia russia, there's some oil price cap coming and we believe there's a risk that russia will already supply in response to the price gap that the u.s. and europe are trying to impose on them, to essentially try to curb the amount of revenue that goes into russia. and they've already played that game in gas and could very well play it in oil, too. >> i like your three-legged stool here, number one, china and asia will come back.

that will be bolster demand. number two, there'll be substitution away from gnat gas and coal and away from oil and three, that russia may reduce supply in response to pricing. let's take one at a time let's stipulate that china comes back but let's also remember that it may well be that the rest of the world is in a serious recession. so does one cancel out the other? >> well, again, the downside risks i was going to add are obviously a recession on the demand side. and the second up with is an iran deal, although that looks less likely now, after both european and u.s. diplomats have essentially argued that iran doesn't seem very willing to move forward so, really, your key downside risk is recession, tyler and, look, under historical demand contractions, we've seen

recession to the tune of half a million to a million barrels a day contractions, in developed markets. that's about between half a percent and 1% of the market that is around 100 million barrels a day. and today, russian is not more or less producing 11 million barrels a day. so if we were to see supply drop by 2 to 3 million barrels a day from the current levels, we could burden off that. and on the demand side from china, we think demand probably expands. remember, this year, 2022 is the first year in 20 years where chinese oil demand has actually contracted and it contracted by 2.5% this year so it's kind of a unique year. and we think that going into '23, we'll see demand above the levels of last year. and that alone is quite a bit of demand >> let's transition to point number two that was the idea that as natural gas and coal prices stay high, there will be a

substitution effect and that oil will then become the swing fuel for power generation my question is, how easy is it to do that kind of substitution? in other words, are there still plenty of facilities that can generate power using oil as opposed to, gnat gas or coal >> there's two points made there. obviously, a lot of the oil generation has been shut down over the last 30 years, but in truth, there is power generation in different parts of the planet, and it's not just the european substitution game, because europe gas prices are so high, you're trying to draw gas from target or japan or india or south korea or elsewhere or brazil and that is going to force the institution not just in europe, but worldwide.

that's where we think the number will be north of a million barrels per day or 1% of the market the international agency has put that number closer to half a million barrels a day. so everyone is trying to work out, half a million or a mi million, but there is a substitution issue there and there is an article that the -- the banks themselves in europe are preparing for contingencies. and i think something is not just the banks, it's every company in europe is preparing for that eventuality >> very interesting. driving up demand for diesel-fired generators. >> thank you for taking my questions and i appreciate your insights today we'll have you back soon >> thank you >> francisco blanch of b of a. commodities and derivatives research chip stocks are on pace for their worst week since july. the biggest names that might be poised for a rebound and as we head to a break, heat

map with chevron and boeing, the worst performers right now 11 dow stocks hitting new 52-week lows, including micr microsoft, visa, 3m, nike a lot of red the schaing is back after this.

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we've taken that out, but we're back above it now, down 2.25%. and nasdaq is down 2.25% everything in a bear market. megacap names dragging the market lower today alphabet, amazon, tesla, all of them lower and by up to a 4, almost 5% in the case of tesla. tesla among the worst performers in the nasdaq right now. fedex is lower after announcing a 7% increase in shipping rates and plans to cut another $4 billion in annual costs. remember, shares had their worst day ever last week there you see that worst day ever, as you come right in there. and here, the ekg continues to wobble a little bit lower. a profit warning last week is what sent it off the cliff there a week or so ago costco is down despite an earnings beat. operating margins came in slightly below consensus and the

company said it had no immediate plans to raise its membership prices there you see a falloff in costco look at that, wow, over the two days, i guess it's a two-day measure there, down 18% right now. my goodness. so speaking of costco, it's holding up even though the group is on pace for its third straight negative quarters, there are standouts in the class this year and dom chu has the names in sectornomics. >> a third straight negative quarter, perhaps, but also the third best-performing sector so far in '22, despite the fact it's down 10% on a year-to-date basis, that's better than the 23% that the s&p 500 is currently down right now if you look at the overall picture, it is about the relative performance of those economic staples if you take a look at the leaders and what's been happening and what's been driving that trade, take a look at some of these over here

lamb western, archer midland, general mills among some of those up double digits around 17 to 20% more some of those names. if you're taking a look at some of the other ones that are currently in play right now, those are the ones that are becoming interesting here. if you look at the picture for that, it becomes the laggards in estee lauder, down 38% year-to-date tyson foods, down 20%. and walgreens, boots alliance down 37% as well they are also among those that could have the most potential upside, because they've fallen by so much we could see some moves higher there if analysts are correct on those. keep an eye on those consumer staples stocks they have been outperformers we'll see if they continue in a possible economic scenario >> i want to correct myself, because i don't want there to be confusion on costco. it is down not 19%, but 19 points, and that is about a 4% decline. so 19 points, not 19%.

i misread it, i apologize. bertha coombs has the cnbc news update >> hi, tyler thanks very much here's what's happening at this hour the investigation into possible sex trafficking crimes involving congressman matt gaetz will likely end without charges according to the "washington post." prosecutors in the case are not recommending charges against the florida republican the investigation began in 2020 and centered on gaetz' alleged relationship with a 17-year-old girl years earlier gaetz has denied any wrongdoing. the death toll continues to rise after a boat carrying migrants from lebanon sank off the coast of syria at least 77 have been reported dead and officials fear the number will rise thousands have been trying to flee lebanon as the economic crisis worsens in that country and so-called elections are underway in russian-occupied regions of ukraine the referendums ask people if they want to join russia and has already been condemned as a sham by kyiv and its western allies

they say russia will manipulate the results, whatever they are, and use it as a pretext to annex parts of ukraine tonight on "the news," more on the voeting underway in those parts of ukraine and the latest on hurricane fiona's path as it barrels towards canada tyler, back over to you. >> thank you very much, bertha coombs still ahead right here on "the exchange," rates are set to keep rising, so how do you play it a special three buys and a bail financials edition coming your way, including why you should avoid the stock, down almost 10% in a month we'll tell you which one it is and a quick look at the airline stocks today, all falling hard as global growth fears take hold. american airlines, united, they are the biggest laggards you're looking at a 5% decline for united, delta is also lower byetr an%. bteth 4

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what a busy day this is. welcome back, everybody. as the fed continues to hike interest rates, so are banks the prime rate now back to levels not seen since 2008

higher rates usually seen as a bullish sign for financials. they can make more on the spread, as the saying goes but before you go out and dive in, remember, not all financials are created the same so where are the buys and what's one name to stay away from joining us now, sabrina sanchez has three bias and a bail for us number one stock is bank of america. the shares, gena, off significantly this week. off about 8%, despite wednesday's fed hike but this is your high interest rate sensitivity play. explain that and what's going on here >> yeah. when i say high interest rate sensitivity, i really mean that they have the right kind of sensitivity. because, remember, as you said, banks make money on the spread they pay at the short end, they make money at the long end and so as the short end is rising, some banks are getting squeezed in that net interest margin but a big chunk of bank of america's deposits are actually

in very, very low-paying deposits in their wealth management unit. so they are not suffering that net interest rate squeeze. and their net interest margins expanded, you know, 18% over the first six months and are probably going to be able to hold on to those dpgain. >> so there's one call, one big vote, one cheer for bank of america. let's move on to the second one. pnc bank, also lower by about 8% this week. you call this one your strong regional pick. pnc is a regional that's punching up into to being a big sort of national-scale player. >> you are absolutely right. with the purchase of pvba's u.s. network, they're basically like the national main street bank. but they're still a main street bank and they're making consumer loans. at this time in the market, there would be a lot of people that would say, oh, the economic cycle is really rough. you're going to have a hard time with consumer lending, but the household balance sheet is actually really, really still quite good

in fact, debt levels, even though they rose a little bit during the pandemic, are still at all-time lows and so with a really healthy balance sheet, pnc is making some really profitable and very well underwritten consumer loans and i think they're going to do really well. >> you mentioned pvba, it is your next pick spanish bank, final buy, consumer centric, as countries around the world look to shore up their economies what's got you intrigued about this one, apart from the fact that they sold something to pnc? >> well, it's a bigger play, actually it's one of the few ways you can get access to latin america. latin america has actually been doing extraordinarily well this year it's one of the few markets that's actually still up and it is, you know, it's enjoying, obviously, what's happening with oil, but it also has the benefit that as we start to pull back from offshore into china, we're probably going to

be near-shoring to latin america. there's lots of good reasons to like latin america right now, and bbva is really exposed to that market, particularly in mexico, which is a neighbor to the u.s. there's a really strong play, the international is a dicey play right now, but this is one area that you may want to figure out how to get exposure to and this is one way. >> we've got one bail and it is wells fargo. it is all about mortgages, right? >> all about mortgages you know, when interest rates are falling, people continually pay to keep refinancing to get into that lower and lower mortgage but the problem is that when interest rates are rising, people don't necessarily want to refinance into a higher interest rate loan. so they'll keep the interest rates they have. they have no -- they have no interest rate sensitivity, so they get no benefit for the higher interest rates, because they're not making more money. everybody stays locked up in what they have, no fee income. it really blunts what would normally be a good play on banks. they're just too locked up to -- >> have they said they want to kind of be less a player in the

mortgage business? have they been saying that >> you know, they have, but the reality is that it's still a huge part of their business. and so they can say that, but they're going to have to grow the rest of their bank in order to deal with that. >> yeah, yeah. well, we spoke with a bank executive i think it was yesterday from valley national he said the refinancing business just dead, it's gone why would you, right gena, always great to see you. >> why would you gena, thanks >> thank you, tyler. >> coming up, saying, should -- saying should investors start saying bye-bye tina? with stocks continuing to slide, yield hunters are finally finding alternatives why you might want to consider adding corporate bonds to your portfolio. we'll talk about that and more in a moment.

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investors on the hunt for yield are looking to some unfamiliar places in this

environment. and that includes corporate bonds, which suddenly look attractive, after hitting their lowest levels in more than a decade and bob pisani joins us with the details hi, bob? >> and tyler, corporate bonds are really starting to look very attractive you know, for years, the mantra was tina, you know, tina, there is no alternative to stocks. that's not the case anymore. prices for large corporate bond etfs, look at this, lqd, it's at the lowest level since 2010, essentially. many are now starting to take notice of the steadily rising yields of large-cap koermss with, particularly in the two to five-year maturity range yesterday, for example, apple's five-year bonds at a 4.3% yield. and when you get into the high-yield territory, that would be ford and macy these are five-year bonds. i spoke with trade web they're an electronic trading platform they told me they have seen a pickup in retail interest in

corporate bonds recently investors are saying, these are yields i haven't seen since before 2008. this might be interesting to put in my investment portfolio and while treasury yields are also up, you can get a 3.9% yield on a five-year treasury note, the corporate yield curve is not inverted, as treasuries are. so the corporate yield curve is a little more normal it's more upward-sloping and you can get a little more yield the further out you go but not too much so just take a look at apple's ten-year bond yields, for example. 4.4% there that's not much more than 4.3% for the five year. and that may cause a lot of investors to wonder, why should they buy a ten-year, when they can get roughly the same yield for a five-year. that's true for a grade bonds, but there are some notable differences. for example, macy's, i see 9% on their ten-year that's versus roughly 7% for their five-year. you have to take a lot more risk, but you can get more yield

in junk bonds, the further out you go tyler? >> thank you very much, bob pisani up next, the dow and the s&p, both falling below their june lows today, but according to one strategist, the nasdaq is the weakest of the major averages and is poised to retest its 2020 lows, as rates continue to climb. we will check the charts and get the tech name to buy on the dips and now more than ever, you want to hear from the investing heavyweights at cnbc's delivering alpha conference. it returns in person on wednesday, september 28th. go to cnbcevents.com to register "the exchange" returns aer th isft

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. welcome back to the exchange, everybody. markets on pace for another losing week and we could -- could we see a repeat now of the 2020 lows? our next guest says some charts are pointing a yes answer to that answer. let's bring in market strategist at bell curve trading. good to have you with us let's start with the nasdaq 100 which you say is ominously retesting the midpoint of its march 2020 lows. we've taken out the june lows. we're going back now to more

than two years ago >> yeah, the bottom line, tyler, is the path of least resistance is still lower here. when you try to answer the most important question across all the global financial markets, where is this bear market going to end, the key trend that you need to focus on is the rally off the march 2020 lows. when we look at that relative to the nasdaq 100, we're still in a lot of trouble we're below the midrange and now we're testing the last line of support which comes in from 11,000 to 10,300, that needs to hold or otherwise you're talking about a march 2020 rally which would take the nasdaq 100 down to 7,000 that's not a base case we think the market at least at this point will sold between 11,000 and 10,300 but that's not a trivial probability. >> let's move on to the s&p 500. what are you seeing there in

terms of its sort of positioning? >> sure. i mean, the s&p 500 has more down sides as well at a minimum, we're going to test 3500 which is the march 2020 midrange. i think you might get a short-term bump here, anywhere from 3600 to 3650. that's the objective off the mid-august highs but i think minimally, we test 3500 and that is just a place where i would cover shorts and bearish positions. in terms of being a long-term accumulator, we want to buy somewhere around 3300. >> and, again, that is -- is that your base case or is that that nontrivial probability? >> no. the base case is that we should at least test 3500 which is the midrange off the march 2020 lows that's a place where we want to cover shorts and bearish positions. if you say to me right now e

when would i look to be an aggressive buyer, i would probably look a little bit lower. somewhere around 3300. when you look across the board, even is dow which has been the best performer on the way down, which is typically the case, because it was slower on the way up, i still think the dow could get down 28,000, 27,500. we're still not at a point where i think you want to be aggressive on the buy side. >> there you see -- there you see the dow off the march 2020 lows, but you see it coming to that midpoint that you -- that you point to and you think it could go 28,000, 27,500. today we're below 30,000 >> right yeah, i mean, again, the dow was the slowest on the way up. on the way down, it's given up the least amount of ground and that's typically the way it happens. when i look at the dow right now, i think we should definitely test the midrange off the march 2020 lows, 28,000,

27,500 that's probably the first place where i think it makes sense to take a look at it on the long side when you look across the board, tyler, you know, we're not at the end of this thing yet. i still think there's more downside. >> doesn't feel like we're near the end of it yet. i agree with that. always good to see you, sir. >> take care. still ahead, it's another tough day for the chip stocks folks. why things could get even worse. what a cherry note and a quick look at the bitcoin right now. trading below 19,000 lowest level since june 19th earlier today. this is the dollar bitcoin slumping

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chip stocks are getting close to their 52-week lows we have the names getting hit the hardest. >> tyler, we are getting so close to that yearly bottom, not just one, but several names. you have lam, amd, western digital. all of those stocks are literally less than 1% off their 52-week lows and those constituents dragging down the -- the smh is on the way to its fifth week down. we're starting to see weakness in cloud that's weighing on chips you have higher rates that hamper growth names. but an inventory correction is also a big factor for these stock drops. supply disruptions that we had over the last two years or so have resulted in inventory accumulation so companies are reducing their orders and that's

pushing analysts to trim their estimates. morgan stanley trimmed their amd numbers, lower the price target to $95 they say the pc market is going to be even worse than predicted and the positive, though, they are bullish on global foundries. it's down almost 4% today, but they say it is the only pure play u.s. foundry, think of it like a manufacturing hub with long-term commitments from customers. and sticking with that demand story and more specifically demand weakness, goldman sachs reducing estimates for micron and western digital to reflect demand weakness for memory chips. they cut back in august and they said in this note today, quote, we clearly did not cut enough. and that's, tyler, where we stand right now. a theme relevant to all of tech, all of the nasdaq have estimates come down enough to reflect the current and near-term weakness that could endue >> well, we will see

if they didn't cut enough, tcall into question the weakness. >> that it's going to be worse according to a lot of the notes we've been reading. >> christina, great to see you thanks. that does it for the exchange you know what, i'm going to join seema mody for power lunch which starts right now tyler, thank you welcome to "power lunch. a sell-off on wall street. the dow breaking below 30,000. now down more than 20% since its january high this hour, a top strategist tells us what she's watching and what she's buying. we'll discuss the threat of the stronger dollar, whether an earnings recession is ahead and why opportunity can be found in some of the biggest laggards that we've seen this week. a check on where we stand. two hours left in trade. >> the end of trade couldn't come soon enough if you're long the market the dow and the s&p 500 dipping below their june closing lows. the dow on track for its lowest clos