final trade, consumer staple, hershey. everyone loves chocolate >> all right thanks very much for the final trades let's do it for the "halftime report." the dow is down 211 points, bad, but not as bad as it was we were down 300 in the past hour we'll kick it off with "the exchange" with brian sullivan. we'll see you tomorrow. >> the markets are well in focus. here's what's ahead, stocks mostly sinking again, as we kick off historically what is the worst week of the year for the equity market. is there any side of a bounce anytime seen what do you buy against this backdrop three games their well positioned. plus the ceo of america's biggest energy-exporting port, joining us live on set with his

vi views all this week we're going in depth on the state of debt in america. today it is you, the consumer credit card balances hitting all-time highs credit card rates at the highest level in 20 years. what does it mean for you and the macro economy? we're going to break it all down we've got to start off, where it all ended last week. that's bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. we had this horrible week last year there was some thought we would go ahead a rebound we know it's rosh hashanah, so the volume is probably thinner >> the volume is instead thinner than usual we did try to rally modestly, but the buying power wasn't there. there's the dow jones industrial average which was positive earlier today, but unitedhealth weighed on there goldman sachs, to a lesser

extent some of the oil stocks. the s&p 500 was briefly below 3666 that's the only june low we have bounced a little bit from there, but the nasdaq was positive until just about noon eastern time now, what is we started move up rather aggressively take a look at big-cap tech. all of them were in positive territory. microsoft was positive briefly, and so was apple, but cisco is still fractionally positive, but some of the other ones like nvidia are on the negative side. transports, even before we moved up in the middle of the day, we saw new lows.

i would point out among the lows are reits. they compete for a yield against other bond-like investments, including treasuries and utilities. but they also act as proxies as demand, demand for apartments or office space, for example. these two factors come into play here both are negative for reits right now. no buyic interest. that's where we need a picking up a bottom. unfortunately they still don't have the nerve to do it. it's annoying since we're crazy overbought still, not enough. >> losing money? it is annoying well said. earlier today some tech stocks were up, but now the nasdaq was back down the s&p 500 has now lost 10% in

just 30 days you're probably asking, are we bottoming out and getting ready for any kind of a pop? maybe not, says your first guest today. david, we appreciate you coming on the market clearly, to bob's point, oversold in the short term, but i don't hear anybody screaming optimism. >> no, not yell. the dollar is still strengthening, very strong it's gaining again all of the currencies yields are rising, and the vix isn't. we still don't have a capitulation still going on in the markets, which tells me painfully we have more lows to go, more downside to have happen >> for how long and how much that's the magic eight ball question i think that's been said before.

i'm not the first one to say that, but you've been looking to is since june. those are common if you look across other market cycles, think of 68 to 70, 76 to 80, 80 to 82, we have a lot of time left. so this could go on for some time, but i think the chances of recession are far more likely now because of the fed and their keeping the tone the same. they're not changing so i think we're going to have more down side i would like to see that continue yes, we could get there quickly, but not without the vix, not without yields and not without the dollar i think there's going possibility more pain a little longer ahead look for the bottoming, maybe in the fourth quarter, maybe even into the first quarter. >> seasonally this stinks this is one of the worst months for the market heading into the yearend tends

to be better longer term, what are i advising, hold cash, build up money? or should we be dollar cost averaging right now. if i'm investing for ten years out, i don't know a lot. except is know the hokies are not going to win soon. >> the hokies and jazz don't have a lot of hope in their rebuilding, but the market is rebuilding too maybe there's a chance for dollar cost averaging, but i would probably wait, but i think you need to stay defensive short-term yields of great you can find munis out there, and wait a bit longer. i know that's getting recommended a lot from mire investment team to me, but from the standpoint of stocks, you need to stay defensive i like some names their overpicked or oversold, or lockheed mart, or aalgonquin up

in canada. but and then get in there, put your money to work i've been telling my own son, when should i get in the market, dad? probably about 3500, 3550. 3500, 3550 numbers were watching, david it's been a rough go got to ride it out david hart teak a knock at the jazz as well we took knocks at our own teams. thank you very much. you could be wrong about that one, by the way. you want to hear from heavyweights that's going to happen "delivers alpha" returns go to cnbc.com to register great panels by the way, nice coke tal tail party afterwards, and if you go, you'll get to meet great folks like me, hopefully the risk of a global session

for oil. wow our oil exports, europe would be in a far worse spot much of it comes off the chniers facility john strongbridge there at the largest energy port. no containers, just energy shawn, good to have you on set you have a giant presentation on the table. you're making me nervous now let's take about oil, gas and lng, how big of a deal is this for you? how big of a deal is it for texas and for america? >> well, first of all, brian, thanks for having me look, the energy export markets have been the boom for our port and certainly for texas and the united states.

we have, for decades really had a our largest commodity export was aircraft and aircraft part not only in the last five years, it's energy. number one is petroleum, two crude oil, number three liquefied gas. >> i've been to cccheniere's facilities it's a major expansion can they getle natural gas -- do you have the ability to pipe enough into your facility, et cetera >> that's a great question it's the four ps -- it's production, pipelines, it's processing -- and it's ports

we are seeing increased production, more pipelines are being laid the challenge of late is getting that processing capacity cheniere has announced a phase three expansion, but those new molecules probably won't hit until 2024 or 23025. the headwinds will be the challenge. >> regulatory head winds, is purely political it's not just about fossil fuels, though, is it when you talk about the green, clean, whatever up to call it, energy transition, hydrogen, tesla is based in texas now. how much of that business are you going to get and how much do you have to adjust your model to get it? >> well, look, when you talk about the energy transition,

evolution, however you want to characterize it, it's the traditional energy companies that will play a front and center role in that type of transition they have all of the infrastructure, and all of the experience when you talk about hydrogen, for example, which seems to be what's percolating to the top of the next generation of clean energy fuels, hydrogen from hydrocarbons will be the primary source in the near term. texas not only has an abundance of fossil fuels, but also the largest producer of renewable energy, number one in wind, number two in solar. so taking full advantage of that infrastructure, we see the next leg up as being a large-scale hydrogen production hub not only for domestic production, but we will have enough to export to our allies and partners around the world. >> one thing to talk about ports and 350i7line, first off, giant ships are cool to look at, but

you have your pulse on the forefront of the economy you're more specialized with energy but from your perch, do you see impending economic doom for the united states? >> well, certainly if you're talking about crude oil, we will have a tight supply sit waiting. right now you look at the strategic petroleum reserve, it has less volume than commercial storage. that's the first time that's ever happened. so we will see some tight supply when you're seeing the rate pressure on crude, it's because of the strengthening dollar, but i do expect we will see higher crude prices in the medium term as we go to replenish those reserves when we talk about resiliency, texas is a resilient state tesla has announced their lithium battery plant near corpus christi

they will bring in the materials to build those batteries, so there's a resurgence of steel manufacturing, so we are seeing an economic resiliency in texas and certainly in our region. >> i should have just come to see you. i was in texas for a couple days, in dallas, not near you, but we're talking to everybody, whether we go to michigan, or new jersey, texas, nobody can find labor i have no idea where they went or what people are doing, but labor is, as you know, in extremely short supply are you able to find the people you need >> that's a great question, brian. we are seeing over 1,000 people to migrate from texas. many are coming from california. it's a much more favorable business climate certainly a more favorable tax climate. so when you talk about some of that labor, we absolutely think

that we'll be able to meet those demands. we're seeing a lot of foreign direct investment coming into the state as well. american dollars coming back to the united states, taking advantage of our hub is one sixth of what it is in terms of land and cost in europe. so i think you will see a major manufacturing resurgence our proximity to mexico, obviously one of our largest trades partners, makes it an ideal environment for some of these larger industrial investments. >> if you are a giant european manufacturer of an energy-intensive product, maybe a chemical, limb numb, maybe an automobile, i don't know how you're not looking at the united states right now they can't -- it's not just the high surprise, but it's the swings you can't run a business when you're paying one price one year and five times that price the next year. i think the united states and texas in particular may be a big beneficiary of some of the europe's problems. >> certainly is what the markets

want any market wants certainly when you talk about some of the more nefarious sources of energy that europe has depended upon, to transition to more u.s. energy, that is really going to bring some stability in the medium term. but absolutely, if you're going to make those large-scale investments, and it is an energy-intensive business, you want the investments near. >> this is a topic we brought up last week, and maybe i don't want to comment on t there have been eight refinery fires around the world in last weeks -- indiana, ohio, one in argentina. maybe just a complete coincidence. what can we do to achieve the fill security to these facilities >> the department of homeland security recognizes refineries as critical -- >> you know what i'm talking about. >> we absolutely have to do

everything we can, and at the port of corpus christi, we take all of those facilities, their security with absolute seriousness. the port itself provides public safety we have our own police force we have fire protection. we work with the federal agencies, but there is certainly more to be done. as we continue to grow in prominence in the world stage from an energy standpoint, we do become perhaps a target, and we have to do more at the federal level to make sure we're protected. >> making sure it's physically protected as well, cybertoo. sean strawbridge, thank you for being here a lot of cars and containers coming in. thank you very much. a check on these markets we are not quite -- you know what we are at session lows dom said down 300 was l.o.d., as he call it, the dow is now off 350.

nasdaq holding up a bit better, but the nasdaq was in the green a bit earlier today. volume is lighter, rosh hashanah, so a lot of people just are not at their desks today, but the selling volume, rolling on now, the ten-year yield, the ten-year treasury note yielding -- the yields have been the story they were at the highs of the session as well. we are seeing stocks and equities come down rough start to the week, which as we noted is historically the worst week of the year for the equity markets on deck, the u.s. dollar has not been weak. it's surging and hits a lot of stocks jeff has some names he thinking can wing before that we're kicking off a new series this week, looking at the state of debt in america. we're starting with you, the consumer credit card rates are near record highs, what does that mean for delinquencies, defaults, your money, we'll dig

into the debt dilemma. here's a quick look of shares at planet fitness, getting appear upgrade to a strong buy. maybe it's a play on fitness raymond james, the firm saying they're positive on the low-cost business model and the balance sheet, maybe people are sick of working out in their pavement and going back to the gym. we are back after this

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welcome back do now underestimate the impact of rising interest rates according to the new york federal reserve, total household death is more than $16.1 trillion a lot of that is housing, but it also includes a whopping $890 billion in credit card debt, much of it is on a variable rate, which means it will go up as rates go up, and it has been. listen to this, according to bankrate, the current apr assistants at 18.1%, that is the highest since 1995 and with red-hot inflation making many essentials more expensive than ever already, what does it mean? ted rossman, senior industrial

analyst at bankrate, welcome to cnbc i won't hold you to a specific number, but of that credit card debt, how much is zero percent or paid off, and how much of it is at risk of shocking the heck out of consumers with a big jump of their american payment. >> it says among active credit card accounts, 54% of them carry debt from month to month the other 46% are paid in full that's actually close to a record number paying in full the all-time record is 46% there's this tale of two cities thing that goes on in the credit card world we have some people in a use the card, get the rewards, life it great, but then there's the other half more or less that are carrying expensive debt. as you noted, the typically person's credit card now charges three percentage points more than at the start of the year.

>> the numbers themselves are scary, like a home payment, don't we have to look at this, ted as not as the absolute number, but as the ability to service that debt? in other words, sort of debt service as a percentages of income, wages have gone up that's the good news so is it fair to say that right now, this is -- not for everybody, but sort of the medians, manageable, for now >> yes, i think that's an important point. if we like at this inns like delinquency in -- they have tucked up a bit. they were artificially low in 2020 and 2021, but yeah, we look at delinquency, faults, debt-to-income ratio, all of these are more positive. but the individual household level, credit card debt can be a big deal if you're paying minimum

payments on 18%, you could drag a $5 houses balance out in 16 years. broadly speaking, credit is flowing, originations have been at record highs last year and this year as well. the big picture is more positive, i think. >> so the one reason i wanted to have you on, it's not about right now, right we try to talk about the future. if you go back to, look at the st. louis fed, dead service as a percentage of household income was at 13% before the financial crisis it's now under 10, but that's up off its -- to your point, all-time lows. i'm not worried about right now. as rates keep going up, we could get back to that 10%, 12%, 13% level, which historically has not been good. >> i think your point is well taken also about leading versus lagging indicators maybe we're citing more of a lagging

indicator. you could say the same thing about the job market now, not as high as inflation has been, so it gets back to the kind of disconnection with what people are doing and how they feel about it. i would say right now the credit card mark is coming into this from a period of strength. the main industry theme i'm hearing from banks is normalization, as in back to, let's say 2019 levels of delinquencies and defaults not as low as they have been, but nothing worrisome that would indicate a credit crisis, though it all bears watching. >> i know there's limits on adjustable rate mortgages, they can only rise by most cases 2% in a year. credit cards cap out just under 30 that means if 18.1 is the average. there could be a lot of people

at 25%, and a bunch of people at 5% like, we could keep going up here >> yes, that's right yeah, there is not a national cap on credit card rates credit unions have a cap of 18%, but for banking, one of the ways they get around these usesry laws, if they set up in states like delaware, south dakota, you're right we do see a lot of people being charged 25% or even 30%. the 18% we've been citing, that's the average midpoint of the range. if you have expensive credit card debt, get that zero balance transfer card or maybe a low-ray personal loan, because they rates are very high. >> they are very high, closing in on an all-time high ted rossman, thank you appreciate it. well, you can't talk about debt county talking about the federal reserve. so that's what we're going to do be sure to tune into a cnbc special, "the fed factor

i will be hosting it i will be joined by a panel of experts to look how the federal reserve and rates are impacting your money our guests include the owner of a small family-rub bakery in massachusetts, who is worried that rising rates and energy costs may put her and her son out of business. we're going to talk about the heart of small business as well tonight, 6:00 p.m. eastern. still ahead from crypto to meme stocks, and now bond, how the new generation is doing something you probably never thought they would as we head to break. amazon is set to snap a four-day losing streak. they announced their second prime day sale of the year, october 11th and 12th, the first time amazon has held two prime day events in a year they're on pace for their worst year since 2008.

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the two-year has been the story. remember, the two-year is like a fortune teller, kind of tells you where the federal reserve is going to go. it kind of goes to where the two-year is. if you want to know where the terminal rate might be, that's it 4.32%. keep in mind the two-years was like half of 1% a year ago or something like that. the highest level, all 11 s&p sectors are moving lower, no surprise the higher different-paying sectors are taking the biggest hit. it's not all doom and gloom. got to show you some stocks that are on the up side shares of gen generac is higher. there's a lot of concerns, as we

move more toward electrification, can our grid, 75 years old in many places, withstand that along with increased storms tiler has the update. >> at this hour, border crossings, thousands of russians are waiting in line, stretching for miles to flee their country and avoid getting sent to fight in the war against ukraine wait times reportedly hitting 48 hours to hit georgia many fear russia will close its borders to men of military age to halt that exodus. a man who killed three fellow students when he was 14 years old, will have to spend his life in prison he said he would live at home and continue medical health treatment. the kentucky parole board voted unanimously to deny that request. and a federal appeals judge

has struck down california's ban on privately run immigration detention centers. private prison operator geo group had sued over the ban, backed by the biden administration on the news, getting ready for hurricane ian to hit florida. how residents are protecting their homes and preparing to get out of the harm's way. that's tonight at 7:00 eastern hurricane ian, that's my son's name, he lives in florida. >> best to your son andsh else that's in florida. tyler, thank you. three ways to play the rising dollar, and this one already down 30% this year, the name and what may make it immune to the swings of the greenback that's coming up. through hout hispanic hersage moment, today we're celebrating. today it's the woman at the helm of this show she runs "the exchange," "power lunch," she's my good friend and

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welcome back the surging dollar it might be great news if you're planning a trip to europe or the uk doing sales around the world or a smaller player here in america, with no international exposure what does it meaning and cnbc contributor i've got to imagine, jeff, welcome. good to go here, sully >> you want to look for companies that probably don't

have an international exposure, a name like a cleveland lives? >> we're trying to find shelter. rear wee reverberations across the globe. whether it's the yen last week, this currency war is here, sully. if you look at the mid caps, mdy is where you did allocate towards. if you want to dig down underneath 9 hood, i'm looking for p.e. ratios that are attractive. a name you like, la-z-boy. >> it's the only american company that i respect

they didn't change their name. this could have become active man, but they stayed la-z-boy. are you worried about a consumer >> it's a little more than $600. i think there's an opportunity for this to move higher. household debt is still okay do we have to avoid many almost

every major it's again good for travel, but balance for selling stuff. it's remarkable to see, this is the second misstep, sully. chair powell will have a hard time walking it back, but maybe this week think soften the stance but all these currencies, there will be some form of revenue indication, but i think another name is cleveland cliffs that's a commodity name that's beat up.

if you're moving your portfolio now, it could be a little too late as we saw interest rates moving higher, here we are trying -- i think we're alternate peak inflation in june, peak yields, and it has a trajectory of still moving higher you notice what i was? tom brady is a winner, but they tom brady will probably pay five

more -- you wouldn'ter how long he can last. cleveland coffees, and active man, aka la-z-boy. jeff, thank you very much. >> thank you, sully. coming up, the yield on the ten-year note, more than 20% in just september alone are bonds no longer boring of course to some advisers, they're not, you might shot as who is now interested in buying earies that story with kate rooney is coming up next - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs) - oh, it's no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet.

they vet investments that don't ride the stock market rollercoaster. - ooh. i think some of my gray hairs just reversed. - yeah. you're welcome. - [narrator] become an investor today. yieldstreet: private market investing.

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story, sharon, young people and bonds? they don't go together. >> it's hard to believe, brian over the years millennial have mostly invested in stock and crypto so now some younger investors are exploring bonds. it's important to understand a credit risk as well as its duration, the price sensitivity, and they can be a bit complex to less experienced investors, but still kristin o'keefe merrick says it's a good time to consider a range of -- from investment grade and he-yield to treasuries >> treasury bonds are obviously backed by the united states government so there's very, very very low default risks on those so it's kind of a very low-risk play to generate almost 4% >> now, that may be pretty attractive right now, one of the top reasons millennial have been bailing on their investments is fear of losing money

they have been more likely than any other generation to sell their investments over the past year, nearly half, 49% sold all or some of that are investment from august 2021, to august 2022 meanwhile, only 21% of again-x, g-z, and 16% of boomers sold stocks at that time. consider adding bonds as a tactical play for the next year or two, a temporary bond as a placeholder for cash, not as a replacement fob equities and not a long-term investment. >> i can go on my cell phone and buy a stock while ordering mcdonald's bonds are different. if our audience wants to buy bonds, what do they do how do they do it? >> one way to do it is work with a financial adviser. if you want to do it our your own, though, a couple places are brokerages that don't have

commission fees, or if you want to have a custom built port joel using wealth front or betterment may be another way to go there are ways to it, a range of them, but working with a financial adviser, you know me, i always think that's a great way to go. if you want to do it on your own, there's options as well sharon, thank you. all right, coming up, the bears were out in force last week, what a record amount of protection buys and the options market reveals about where stocks may be headed some numbers you've got to hear. stocks down once again we're back right after this.

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with the s&p 500 puts the volume rash dwroe also spiking to an all-time high as rate hikes touched off a wave of volatility is it just a hedge or indicate

more pain ahead? let's bring in chris murphy from susquehanna. these numbers are gigantic the number of people seemingly betting against the market on friday is massive. do we know if they're betting against the market or are they using it as hedge for long position >> yeah, i mean, that's all true last week was the second highest weekly put volume of all time. 110 million. only below june of this year but one thing to keep in mind, it's not all the tail hedges, you know, the panic-type hedges. we are seeing so much rolling of positions. what that means is investors have their hedges on and they get a move like we had for the s&p where it goes down 10% in two weeks, and then they're rolling those hedges those hedges might be put spreads. all of a sudden if you're rolling a put spread, that's a lot of options contracts that's why we get to those massive numbers. so, obviously, a lot of hedging

going on, but not every trade is a purely bearish bet we're seeing a lot of monetizing of monpositions, rolling positis of the top nine most active put volume months, they've all happened in 2022 we have to keep in mind, options are just a bigger part of the marketplace right now. whenever there's panic like there is right now, selloffs like there is right now, we're going to set new records >> yeah, i was looking, i think it was bank of america gosh, i hope i'm not wrong it was a sentiment survey, max bullish, max bearish like a speedometer, these arrow things it was at 0.0. it was like gpa in animal house. couldn't get any more awful. isn't that when you're looking for entry points, right? max fear, max panic, that's when you want to buy longer, i think.

>> i definitely agree with you you can talk about the sentiment indicators, the vix finally inverted today these are all traditional, typical capitulation indicators. they worked for 20 years the only issue we have right now is the fed hasn't been this hawkish for over 40 years. we like to look at all those indicators and we do think they're signs to buy we were expecting, we might see a little bounce this week, you know, but if, you know, everybody is kind of expecting a bounce and just waiting on the sidelines to sell it, are we really going to get a bounce i'm not sure all those indicators are there the only difference right now is the fed. >> and so what, what's the next major thing? are we just going to sit back and wait for another month to the november 1 first and october meeting? i don't want to wait through october, waiting on the fed. >> seasonality could be helpful. the last three months of the

year always the best, on average. if you look back long term, particularly in a midterm election year, you can look at that the setup we have right now is interest rates are going higher and the market is grinding lower. you know, we're not having as much panic as we'd like to see to really be a bottom, unless the strong dollar breaks something. >> we're finding it. chris murphy, susquehanna, great stuff. on deck, all those easy auto leases may be a thing of the past il une wh atph'sp xtitth busy da? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.

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welcome back want to get one more thing before we go today and that the growing lack of car and truck leases automobile makers scaling back on those programs as rates rise and car supplies still remain tight. phil lebeau joining us with that story. phil >> brian, are you a lease guy or a buy guy? >> buy guy cash only.

no debt, never >> there you go. if you're a lease person, and one out of every four vehicles sold every month typically were leased vehicles. but that's change canned dramatically in fact, the percentage of vehicles on a monthly basis that are sold or actually a lease is part of the sales, it's down to 17%. in short, the automakers and auto dealers have cut back leasing by about 30% in the last year three things are driving this. one, the lower production because of the chip shortage are, the supply chain issues that means there's a tighter inventory at dealerships and rising rates have also had people say, wait a second, does it make more sense to try to lease and find something to lease or do i just go taught and bite the bullet and pay for a new vehicle or a used vehicle? look at the monthly payments and how much they've changed in the last year. this is according to edmunds leasing has gone up to an average monthly payment of $581. still cheaper than buying but not much better -- or not much more expensive than buying used, which has some people saying,

why don't i just go ahead and buy used take a look at auto dealer stocks and what dealers have noticed is fewer people are bringing back a leased vehicle and looking to roll into another lease. instead, they're saying, well, how much will it cost to buy out the lease on this vehicle? then buying it because of the residual values, a lot of people are saying, i'm just going to hang onto this or turn around and go down the sdpreet sell it to somebody else because the value of a used vehicle is so great right now. >> why used prices are come down a little bit, a little bit, phil, but nothing on the market. >> i don't buy into that too much. >> i don't either. >> that's the wholesale market that's the wholesale data. >> the auto auction. >> go out and talk to dealers -- yeah you go and talk to dealers what the retail prices are doing, they haven't changed a whole lot. it's going to take some time before we see that there's still so much demand out there in the market. >> just go down the pennsylvania turnpike and you pass the mannheim autoauction on your right if you're heading south.

car lot looks full i don't know what's going on i'm going to drive that 2010 jeep wrangler until it croaks, my friend. i'm going to keep going with it. it's got rollup windows, six miles to the gallon. phil lebeau, appreciate it. that does it for us on "the exchange," i'll see you at 6:00 p.m. for the fed factor special. in the meantime, "power lunch" starts right now rollup windows, my son wouldn't know what to do with them welcome to "power lunch" along with contessa brewer, i'm tyler mathisen what tina to tara, there are reasonable alternatives. you just need to know where in the bond market to look to find the biggest rewards with the least amount of risk we'll show you where they are. and the popular buy the dip trade. remember how that worked over the last few years it's backfiring now but it's not stopping investors fro