pay $25 an hour just for a couple nights out. >> 25 is good. i'm paying 20 right now and i think it's huge -- >> you pay what the market will bear. >> it's good for workers, i guess. >> i sure is. thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. the dow and the s&p 500 losing some steam after that failed early rally attempt the nasdaq is making a late-day comeback the most important hour of trading starts right now welcome to "closing bell." the s&p tried to reclaim 3700. the bulls' plans were foiled by hawkish fed speak. we got some pronounced weakness in materials and energy. we're going to talk to rockefeller international chairman about the wild moves we're seeing in currencies and what that means for the emerging

markets trade and david rolfe says there are some tasty bargains in the tech space he's going to join us with his playbook let's get straight to the market dashboard with mike santoli. >> hopscotching around the closing low in the s&p 500, 3666, the intraday was 3636. it's being somewhat oversold on a short-term basis but these radical moves going on in currencies, in yields. not really allowing for a lot of traction at least not yet it's getting stretched pretty thin it's a little over three months ago, the average stock has made a new low, below the mid-june lows you also have important stocks like microsoft and alphabet as well as overall semis. i wouldn't be surprised if it had to plum a little bit lower before you get the snapback rally that everybody believes we

are due soon take a look at a sign of building capital market stress spread versus treasuries this goes back four years. obviously you have the covid spike in spreads and the complete obliteration of anything risky here you see it kind of climbing above those levels it should be relatively close to where we were earlier in the summer it's a little bit below, actually, a july high. the problem is, treasury yields have continued to march higher the yield level, once you put this spread on top of it, is getting to be a little bit tight. it's 5.65% or so in this particular index investment grade stuff, obviously high yield having it tougher. this here was late 2018, 2019. if you take it back to early 2016, there was a wider spread it's not at historic levels but it shows you along with what's happening with the dollar and with other currencies as well as global sovereign yields, that this is sort of tightening the

screws a little bit. >> a lot of discussion about corporates today, some mentioning, saying apple five years, trading near five at what point does this start to get a little silly given some corporate balance sheet strength >> if you looked at apple and said that's a narrow spread over treasuries the issue is, you bought those bonds when the yields were under 1% on paper you're taking a loss. so in aggregate, there's this tremendous, you know, unrealized loss in bonds that we've taken right here and it reduces the ability to sort of buy stuff. that's your capacity for taking risk is somewhat dictated by what your portfolio values and what you thought was safe. and it's keeping the market on their heels. >> stay with us. we want to have a discussion about the british pound today. amid this push from london for

tax cuts the dollar index trading at its highest level. chairman of rockefeller international joins us to talk about what's happening in the uk, how much of it is concentrated behind what some believe is a policy mistake and why is it getting extrapolated around the world >> i think that what policymakers around the world haven't fully internalized is that there's been a major regime shift. the policies that they thought that they could get away with, five or ten years ago, just don't work anymore unorthodox fiscal policy that you can blow out deficit, deficits don't matter, that entire era is over and i think what is happening in uk is just manifestation of that. the policymakers are making mistakes they don't realize that the error that they were used to is

over, therefore the sterling and the markets by extension around the world are stuck in this doom loop, as i call it >> do you think that's going to stay centered in advanced economies or do we start worrying about the pigs in emerging markets >> the fundamentals of many of those economies have improved because those countries went through the crisis, they've been able to clean up their balance sheet. but we're seeing spillover even the markets that were holding up well around the world such as india, indonesia, brazil, are showing signs of weakness this doom loop is extending everywhere induced by this unusual dollar strength and it's not as if people -- have great comfort in the dollar at present. it's just that being a factor which used to be so common in stocks versus bonds has moved to currencies where people think that apart from the dollar, there's nowhere to hide. they're selling currencies irrationally around the world and it's not just sterling which is on its knees because that's the most extreme case. we're seeing it extend everywhere over the last few

days >> mike, your thoughts on -- >> yeah, i mean, there's -- the market clearly is pressing the issue and forcing either policymakers or other markets to adjust to what's going on, and i don't know exactly how it -- it seems like it's a something's got to give kind of moment you can't have the dollar doing what it's doing and the yields doing what they're doing and have the fed feel as if it has as much runway as it was suggesting in terms of getting its short term rates to the target at the same time, the policies in the uk, clearly it should create a rethink of the bank of england. i don't know where the absolutely crisis point moment is where it has to break as opposed to just challenge this setup. but that's where we're headed. >> i'm curious, jp morgan has been relentlessly bullish on equities for a while and even again they come out today and say, don't extrapolate the fed

hawki hawkishness into the next six to nine months. they're likely to look much different and the probability of a dovish tilt increases and you're going to try to play growth names is that even on the horizon for you right now? >> you know, if you look at the big picture, what we're seeing is a classic bear market it's a road map that i laid out earlier this year that the average bear market, you see declines of 30% or so from peak to trough. i think there's been too much of these buys, all because markets are down, we keep looking for a bottom but in the bigger picture, it's a big regime shift that's happened we've gone from a regime of very accommodative monetary policy to where powell keeps telling us that we got to keep at it. to see these prices adjust is not such a surprise. the big picture here is that we're going through a garden variety bear market. the risk is that we get stuck in

a doom loop. all because people want to cut risk, they end up selling and that ends up to more selling that's the boom loop i'm concerned about and i have one policy suggestion here if i can say that, i think it's time for people -- it's time for policymakers around the world to consider a coordinated central bank intervention move to stem the currency markets i think rates are too low. they still have to go higher and it has to be tolerated what policymakers around the world need to consider is a coordinated central bank intervention move to stem the currency markets because that is what can extend this doom loop and cause something to break quite severely that's not to condone what's happening in the uk. i think that's a policy mistake, period generally when we see price action with currencies around the world selling off without any fundamental basis and people are just parking the money in dollar cash, that's the kind of

negative mind-set which needs to be broken. >> he did say today that we talk with our international counterparts a lot more than you might expect we'll see what the coming weeks bring. thank you. great to see you thanks to mike santoli as well. "the wall street journal" is reporting that nearly 90% of companies that went public last year are now trading below the ipo price. coming up next, the top venture capitalist will break down how it's demanding new listings and which names he's focused on in the pipeline you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. this is evolving from gym to global media company. this is connecting your people and content in one place. this is the system you built to transform your business. this is how. airtable. for 65 years, responsibility has been central to our client relationships and

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87% of companies that went public last year are trading below the ipo price. that's according to a new report from "the wall street journal" saying they're among the worst performers in this year's market drop but there are signs of life in the ipo market. we're expecting porsche to begin trading this week. joining us now rashawn williams. you've got great color on the mind-set of founders right now, how they're raising money, even that means a down round. >> yeah, it makes a lot of sense for founders to think outside of the public markets for a variety of reasons let me give you the top three. the valuations you're going to get in the private market are likely going to be higher than you would get in a public market i know companies used to go public after three to four years. if you think back to the amazon

and the google and apple days, three to four years of being private and being ipo, now it's 10 to 15 years they're willing to extend that even more to get the right price. the second reason is, m&a is a lot more attractive. much rather be acquired at my full valuation than to go public into a down valuation. and last but not least, but even the spac option makes more sense in some cases than actually going public at this particular time and the reason, you get a certainty of close, most ipos won't price, you get a favorable valuation with the spacs and you're getting that the multiples expand by the time the transaction closes for those three reasons, it actually makes more sense and we're hearing a lot of private company founders talk about that in their board meetings and as they plan their next 12 to 18 months. >> it seems like there's respect for the tool, as a tool, just as long as the projections are reasonable and responsible

talk to me about intracart you think there's the possibility for some value there, depending on how it comes in. >> this is one of my favorite names. we're investors in instacart it's a name i've been talking about for the last two years this is a name every public investor deserves to own and the reason that i believe that is, number one, if this ipo comes anywhere below $20 billion, it would be the steal of the year. you can look at the down round and where people are marking it. but a 50% discount, that's the steal of the year in my opinion. let's take a step back from the actual valuation from a total addressable market standpoint, to get a piece of real estate in an industry where software hasn't completely eaten up the industry yet, 90% of all groceries are still bought in person, that's like buying spotify, air b and n or docusign

at the ipo this is some of the best real estate and this is a name that public investors deserve to know. >> as for porsche, you think volkswagon is being clever in doing this ipo but is it going to have the same trajectory as ferrari? >> it's funny because i'm sure the bankers have been pitching to volkswagen for years, you need to spin off porsche for awhile look at where ferrari is trading, right in my view, porsche is no ferrari. if you look at how many are riding around in suburbia right now, it's not ferrari. they see where ford and gm is trading and they see where f ferrari. i'm personally not buying it but the reason they're doing is

actually as interesting as the -- everyone can see from all of the headlines relating to them how it's been very well publicized about all of the scandals they've been involved with and their push to e-vehicles and they want to do it now to take advantage of that multiple and also to shore up cash on the balance sheet. >> at least we've got a couple names to talk about after what was a pretty arid period great to see you thanks for the help today. we do have a news alert on bp we're going to turn to pippa stevens. >> we're getting reports that bp is halting production and evacuating staff in the u.s. gulf of mexico as hurricane ian barrels down we're watching the situation closely and we'll continue to keep you updated as we learn more >> pippa, thank you for that we are watching that development very closely. as for the markets, dow down 288 or so.

s&p down 30. atlanta fed president on the tape today with a message to investors. we'll tell you if the fed can generate a soft landing. check out some of today's top search tickers on cnbc.com ten-year yield is on top, followed by the two, the s&p, the dow and the pound. we'll be right back.

take a look at today's stealth mover. it's leslie's. the swimming pool supplies retailer will join the s&p 600 this week. it will replace gcp which is being acquired in a deal the stock had been sinking and it's still down around 40% on the year coming up, the nasdaq 100 is now down more than 30% on the year but our next guest says the bear market has created some great deals. we'll get to the tech volatility playbook after this short break.

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more weakness in the tech sector today the nasdaq is flirting with positive territory still off nearly 8% in september alone. our next guest says the bear market is serving up tasty bargains joining us wedgewood partner's

cio. you come out and say it that the fed share has at least already broken the stock market in your view. >> yeah, i think they've broken the stock market i think they've broken the bond market look what's going on in currency markets. jim grant has a great line and i've used it in a couple letters. the fed in the past couple of monetary cycles, as he says, the fed has been both the arsonist and the fireman and we're seeing the ramifications right now. hopefully they don't break the economy and they don't break corporate earnings growth. but that's yet to be scene but they've done enough damage in the stock market right now, that's for sure. >> it doesn't sound like you have a lot of faith that they won't push us into an earnings recession. >> yeah, i think that's the next shoe to drop the numbers aren't that bad right now. you look at global pmis from where they were a quarter ago and about half of them are

pointing to some trouble ahead it's always interesting when we -- when school is over with and we get back into the markets after september, this next earnings historically the third quarter earnings reports are our first look at the new year as well as an opportunity for corporate america to kitchen sink the rest of the year. if the weight of the evidence is a little bit more negative than what folks assume today, i think that the next round is going to be earnings cuts and another leg down in the stock market. >> with that in mind, why are you adding to names like meta, like paypal, you're obviously still very much a fan of faang and you say if you got good ideas, you should overweight them. >> yeah, that's our playbook that we've been doing now for over 30 years. we only own 20 stocks and our top ten, carl, typically represent about 60, 65% of our

portfolio. it's very focused. in past bear market, when the bottom would ultimately put in, typically our top ten names would represent 70, maybe 75% of our portfolio. bear market bottoms diversification has already failed everything is cheap. that's where you really have to swing a fat bat. when you look at the returns of paypal, meta, the others that we like in the tech sector, we're been adding to taiwan semi, paypal is down 29% meta is down 50%, even alphabet is down 30 but in the context of where we're at just right now, carl, in our 20-stock portfolio, we've been built a portfolio where our forward p/e is the same as the s&p 500. however, we're getting about 50%

more profitability in terms of return on equity and almost 60% more earnings growth versus the s&p 500. so when this thing turns, you know, we hopefully have some sprinters as well as some marathoners in the portfolio and that's been our long history i mean, we have to grin and bar it right now, no pun intended. >> do you think that return to a growth mentality, are you going to be people joining your club in '23 or are you patient enough to wait even beyond next year? >> i hope it's '23 and the growth trade has been pretty darn crowded. it's been down a lot i was looking at some -- i was looking at some market stats, in the last two weeks, almost every -- in the past ten trading days, we kept on seeing more and more new lows than over the nasdaq as well as at the new

york stock exchange. friday alone, on those two combined areas, 2300 new lows. that tells me that the selling isn't drying up and i think the fear factor is really becoming in the forefront of everybody's minds. in terms of that growth idea, if the fed breaks the economy, if the fed breaks corporate earnings growth, for those companies who can grow in that environment, they're probably going to maintain their multiple and i think a lot of them where the multiple is now, they're discounting a really bad 2023. so that's the way we're leaning. and we'll see how it plays out >> finally, you say you were busier early this name adding to names, you say, we'll buy our time and let the market give us offers that we can't refuse. is there an offer that you can't refuse right now >> we added quite a bit to paypal and we've been slowly adding to meta and we did that through the june

low. and then we've been pretty quiet since then but when i look at some of the damage in our portfolio, more and more names are popping up. i think the one that has really become attractive -- it's one of our larger holdings. we may not be able to do too much with it is alphabet and another one that we think is -- just an extraordinary company, one that a lot of growth managers don't own is taiwan semi. and the chip world doesn't exist without taiwan semi. and that's down 35%. i think the market will give us an opportunity >> david, great to see you as always a lot to think about >> appreciate it. let's take a look at where we stand in the markets. dow pretty tight range at least the last hour or so. the fed chair, as you know, warning last week that getting

inflation under control will not be painless. just how much pain is the bank willing to tolerate? we're going to talk about that next with paul mcculley. don't miss your chance to be in the room with some of the biggest names on wall street during our delivering alpha which returns on wednesday scan the qr code on the screen right now to register. we're back in a moment

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the fed's latest rate hike and we're getting fresh commentary this is raphael bostic reiterating the fed's focus on battling inflation >> now we're in a place where we know inflation has gone up rapidly and we've got to take that on board. and i think what you've seen is us doing just that, and i think there's still some more work to do in that front but no one should doubt our resolve to get inflation under control. >> joining us this afternoon, former pimco chief economist paul mcculley. i love your line about the fed chair coming out of jackson hole and it was rebuking the market for what you call the summer romance with the pivot idea. >> yeah, i think when we look at what's been going on in the market last month, we can literally date it back to a month ago today, the 26th of august, when essentially chair powell said you guys got too quick to the dance floor for the

soft landing, the pivot, and time to get back in the risk pool and essentially ever since the marketplace has been repining and taking down valuations on the equity side, taking up the terminal rate for the policy rate, keeping it there longer, dollar -- all of -- everything that's been going on for the last month was triggered by essentially the whole notion that chair powell put into the arena a month ago today which was higher for longer and that we will pivot in the fullness of time but it ain't anywhere close to being full yet and we want to hear the economy cry uncle, particularly the job market, and i think the markets have been rational for the last month. we got a telegram from the fed chair and be ready. >> speaking of crying uncle, i'm sure you've heard about some of

the people on our air who are now chastising the fed for doing damage to stocks, doing damage to housing, doing damage to commodities. does that phase them at all or is this a classic hiking cycle, what we're in now, that kind of rhetoric >> i'm referring to jeremy's comments on friday which were, you know, fist on table. god bless jeremy we've all known him for a long, long period of time. and i think his vitriol may have been a little bit over the top but the fundamental analysis that he was making was not wrong. the fed started this year way behind the curve, if you will, that mythical curve. it caught it this summer and we as a market said, that's great, you've caught the curve, now we're going to move into a period of major tightening that's really data-dependent and

since this summer, that's not been the case. a lot of leading indicators -- and jeremy listed them -- are signaling that by our traditional models, the fed would say we need to slow this thing down we need to moderate our hawkishness and thefed hasn't done that. and i think, you know, there are a number of reasons and probably first and foremost is to demonstrate their resolve. i think it's a little bit intense, but i respect mr. powell for saying we're going to do it as a volker-esque type of quality to it, the rhetoric and so forth, that's the dominant thing they've been doing is to burnish their credibility, but there can be too much of a good thing and i think we're getting close to that. >> that's interesting. do you think the quality of their -- of the metrics on which they rely -- and that could be job openings, maybe it's core

cpi, whatever, are those valid tools or do you think they're in a sense reading without instruments in a way >> no, i think they're valid tools. the fed is always going to have a combination of traditional economic data and then forward-looking market data. that's probably where i would disagree with jeremy most. market data, market data, market data, and i think the fed needs to do that but they need to have their traditional metrics as well because they're operating not just for wall street, but for main street and essentially mr. powell wants a softening in the labor market that's really what he's looking for to essentially signal that it will be time for a pivot and our most recent job report was described by most of us in the arena as very close to goldilocks i think where the pain needs to happen to get the fed to say, enough is enough, is in the job

market and it is lagging a bit but not nearly as much as the inflation data and i think one of the clear things that's going to happen in the future is that chair powell will let the market know that the job data is going to be the bell-ringer for the pivot, not the inflation data because the market-based inflation data has already cried uncle. it's just a matter of the lagging data, particularly the core cpi as jeremy was pointing out has staggered twice on the laggard front. >> that's going to be an interesting period we're waiting for jobs friday to ratify it. paul, as always, our thanks. good to see you. thank you. >> my pleasure. don't miss a cnbc special report, the fed factor hosted by

brian sullivan that's coming up tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time after the break we're going to talk about how the ultra strong dollar is impacting big tech companies and what that might mean for earning season. mpg d why casino stocks are juinanmicron is falling when we take you inside the market zone. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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s&p 500 lower but off the worst levels of the day. still on track for a fifth session in the red and this five-day rout taking 6% off the benchmark index. i know you don't think this year has been easy, but it doesn't sound like you're worried given the defensive positioning, strong job market. >> yeah, no, you gave a great summary there. it doesn't mean that we're out of the woods yet obviously there's a lot of uncertainties on the table right now and especially after last week, hearing from the fed the fed remains in the driver's seat and because of that, the market is going to continue to be very reactionary to any data point that's going to move the market. anything around jobs, inflation. we're going to get pce later this week. those are going to be important data points for market participants to watch because the market is going to move quick on that. the action that we saw on friday and the action that we're seeing today really shows that investors in the market in

general are struggling to find their footing here they have mixed signals. some good, some bad. it's yet to be determined. i'm looking forward to the end of the fourth quarter. seasonally, it's typically a strong period and i think we're going to have more certainty at that point in time. >> moving out of the back half of september seasonality is perilous. that might help attitudes. the dollar index marching higher today. and that strength could present a big headwind for big tech. steve's been following that today. >> they have so much revenue exposure and we've already seen them starting earlier this year react to these foreign exchange headwinds and it's only getting worse. let's talk about what they're doing. on the apple front, they've been raising prices the apple 13 is more expensive

and apps, the app store is getting a price increase, as much as 20% for the base level app price. over on meta, also raising prices they've raised about $100 on the vr headsets and the cfo warning last earnings that they could see 6% revenue hit to the reality labs division, that's where the metaverse is, due to foreign exchange that could take a 6% hit in revenue this quarter microsoft, same thing here strong dollar shaved 6 cents off of eps during that last earnings report and the cfo warning more pain ahead throughout the rest of the calendar year, but it should ease off a little bit into the first half of 2023 and we're going to listen to those earnings coming up in a couple of weeks to see if microsoft can hold on to its pricing power as it faces headwinds amazon and alphabet, a little less dire-sounding and not

giving as many specifics but amazon did say that operating income is protected while revenue is expected to take a hit we're just weeks away from all of these mega cap companies reporting their earnings and we'll get more commentary from the executives about how they're dealing with these headwinds. >> lindsay, there's this feeling on the street that, oh, the market is interested in fx-neutral metrics, it's treated as a one-off if that were the case, why are these companies obviously trying to work on pricing to fight the headwind >> yeah, i mean, there's definitely an impact that the dollar can have on margins as you know, the tech sector has one of the highest margins in the whole s&p 500 industry -- or index. that's about 30% so they certainly have room to handle a little bit more

pressure from a currency headwind here. but i will say that tech -- as i look at the third quarter for the rest of the year, they're expected to have double-digit revenue growth largely due to some of those pricing actions that were just outlined there. companies love to point out fx when it's hurting them they don't talk about it too much when it's benefitting them. but this is a period of time where i think we're going to hear moreabout it. i don't know that it's necessarily going to impact the stocks because they've been beaten down quite a bit because of higher interest rates, the fed's action and the dollar, it's not a new phenomenon that it's rising. but companies have been dealing with this for more than a year now, the rising dollar. >> yeah, certainly treasuries are used to that steve, appreciate that very much great idea we'll see how it affects the coming quarter narrative. we mentioned casino stocks and they're on a roll today. rare bright spot for the s&p as

china looks ready now to ease some of the travel restrictions. contessa brewer has been watching that. we wonder if this is a beginning of a new rebound for vegas >> you know that the casinos are hoping so. but it remains to be seen where these restrictions keep easing down to allow international visitors for now, they're enjoying the lift mgm up fractionally. look at las vegas sands, up almost 12% wynn resorts up 12%. melco up 20% the macao government will resume issuing visas electronically it makes it easier for the neighboring visitors to travel to macao and there will be the gradual resumption of group tours. the top government tourism official predicts as many as

40,000 daily visitors next month. still well off prepandemic levels of 113,000 visitors per day, according to official tallies. but this is a real improvement on tourism this year which has been down 86% from 2019. jeffries has just upgraded wynn and las vegas sands to a buy and increased the price target but, of course, there's still a lot of headwinds here. they have a surprise competitor, and you have also these questions about whether covid restrictions will still follow that zero-infection policy >> contessa, appreciate that lindsay, i wonder what you make of this theme. trying to read china industrial policy has been confounding this year >> yeah, you know what, this is a positive news story for these companies, especially like a wynn and a las vegas sands it gives some clarity to what is a very complex story the news does benefit these

companies and i think what investors need to think about is this is a longer-term trajectory it will be positive for these companies, a win in las vegas sands with over 70% of the revenue coming from the region so i think it's a positive story. but i don't think we're going to get to prepandemic levels before 2024 so i think it's still a long road ahead to your point >> contessa, appreciate that it was a big story in action today. chip stocks are falling again today. down for a fifth session in a row. one notable underperformer has been micron which has been cut in half since january. they're set to report earnings on thursday. our next guest is set on a rebound but growing cautious matt bryson just cut his target on the stock to 65 from 85 it's great to see you. there's been discussion about what's happened with pricing and how much they may actually cut in their spending. is that sort of behind your

thesis as well >> yeah. so certainly both -- pricing have come down considerably throughout the quarter, but particularly in the september time frame that certainly is what caused me to lower my estimates when looking forward, why is this a bottom typically we tend to see bottoms from micron when it gets close to book value. also when we start to see the companies cutting their capex, cutting their future production. we see supply and demand start to match again and that's what we're starting to see right now. >> how do you explain to viewers the timeline of when some of these channels may begin to clear out? >> yeah, it's -- it's hard until you start to see it. some of the dynamics like lower pricing causing members to increase content, so putting ram

in a phone, those shifts, they tend to happen with new models and so you'll see it early next year or middle of next year. they tend to catch people by surprise there's a shift going on from 4 to 5 that takes some capacity offline. but it's not always easy to tell exactly how these dynamics play out. and then the other piece is when pricing goes down, it makes less and less sense for micron's customers to take more inventory. when times are bad, it's even worse for the memory companies because their customers are lower on inventory levels, you can always buy a chip cheaper a few months out when pricing starts to bottom, you see that reverse and that seems to catch everyone by

surprise that's something i'm looking forward is when pricing starts to bottom. the memory makers tend to get a little bit of a benefit because customers start to normalize inventories. >> right meanwhile, as we snake our way through some of the cycles are there huge swings happening between players? >> there aren't huge swings, but there are swings micron was viewed as having the worse or among the worst technology that's really changed over the last few years micron has the lowest cost of dram production right now. they're transitioning. they put out a great nan bit they may not have the cheapest bit, but if they don't, they're close. they're not where it was five

years ago, ten years, when it was the worst-placed competitor in the field if anything, it's a leader technologically. that's one of the reasons that i still like it here great insight. i wonder how you generally are thinking about semis right here in this space. >> yeah, i think when you think about semis, the sentiment is significantly dour right now and everyone knows the worries, it's consume demand, whether it's for smartphones or pcs, other electronics. it's pricing like we just talked about here and it's the inventory issue and so it's hard for anybody to find positive -- glimmers of light, i guess, at this point in time but -- and the concern really is, is that the slowdown is going to expand into other sectors like auto or industrial. and so people are having a hard time nibbling even at these very low levels

vaneck is down these are beaten up stocks the question is, where do we go from here? when do inventories start clearing when does pricing get better like you guest just said, i think it's all going to really come to fruition. >> it's a difficult -- i don't know how you do it, matt good to see you. thanks so much. >> lindsay, a couple minutes left in the trading session. your thoughts about how we're rebounding this week or not in light of the last four losses last week. >> yeah, i mean, it's only monday so we have a handful of days to go through and we have some key data points like i mentioned earlier to look forward to i think the market really is looking for direction on what the fed is going to do we've seen the stock market react very sharply we've seen the bond market react

very sharply i think at the end of the day while these are really very, very serious risks when it comes to inflation, interest rates, even geopolitical risks, i think at the end of the day the consumer is still on solid footing. corporations also have very solid balance sheets going into earning season here and we do have seasonality that could work out in our favor and could align very well with a reduction of inflation into the end of the year i don't think the story is over yet. i think we're going to see a lot of mixed data coming out over the weeks ahead and i think earning season, as much as i would love to hang my hat on it, is something that can save the day. that's going to be ignored until we get the macro picture figured out. >> we're going to be working on thematics for q-3 earnings to your point of consumer strength relative to the rest of the economy, it's no surprise that consumer discretionary is going to be the only sector green. and names like costco, amazon

and walmart. we're going to watch to see what degree the consumer can prop up what is otherwise weakness in the broad economy. thank you very much. as we see the dow closing down about a percent, 326 we're keeping an eye on hurricane ian and the effects on the energy complex let's get over to mike santoli in the overtime. welcome to overtime. i'm mike santoli you just heard the bells but we're just getting started in a few minutes i'll speak with he henry mcvey. he'll talk about potential upside in the markets. but we begin with our talk of the tape the sell-off refusing to let off. stocks pulling back again today as yields push higher and the dollar continues to climb. the s&p 500 taking out june's closing low with a 1%