infrastructure for companies to get patents approved so they're vital for the eco-system there, scott. they're in a net cash position they have 25% operating margins and again you have a very high quality company that is actually growing faster than the earnings multiple. >> i got to leave it there john, i appreciate it. i'll see you tomorrow. "fast money" is now. right now on "fast," the market reaching a key line in the sand the new low for the year the index close to a quarter lost since the start of the year so what are the key levels to watch right now. the chart master will show us and diana olick is here to explain why the number seven is not a lucky number for home buyers and later cathie woods on stand by and get ready tonight, we have some slow money for you. but traders give us their best

idea for a stock worth owning if you have five years to buy and hold i'm melissa lee and we're live at the nasdaq market site in the heart of times square. we begin with the markets falling below that bottom set in june the s&p midday dropping below the 3636 level falling deeper into bear market territory today a 52-week low. the pain coming to every corner of the market. the nasdaq just by posting a small gain now down more than 30% for the year the dow down close to 20% and the russell 2000 off nearly 26% and check this out, the microsoft and alphabet and amazon and apple have lost close to $2.5 trillion in mark cap since late december. each company dropping $500 million in value in less than a year. where are we right now, guy? >> you know, everybody calls me like delores downer and think

i'm negative bad -- actually today's action in terms of the vix, first time that we're 32.5. you see the violent swings something in our world we call negative gamma bad greek we call it when the higher the market goes, the more people short have to buy and the lower it goes the more they have to sell. and you saw that exactly today but the good sign is that means we're toward the end of something. it is going to exhaust itself. so although i do think there is down side in the market, i'll say 3400 is the level i any we're going to reach i think there is some opportunities to trade for the long side for the first time in a while. >> and you that way too, karen. >> and i texed sandy and melissa. if i look at the volatility index and i chart that versus the s&p, i mean a lot of times we'll see the vix gets into the 30s and sometimes spikes higher but a lot of times around 30 and if you look at of divergence

there, it is very wide i agree with guy i bought off xls and bought the tbt, i covered iwm and bought some spider calls. so i'm always long i'm always long. so this is definitely not fun. but i do feel like for the very short-term i think this is way oversold. >> so karen's pictures is a lot prettier than mine i have a greater tan 35 the market is a buy on the vix so we have these and we're talking about trading range and condition where's markets get oversold there is no question we're overceno oversold and that doesn't mean we can't sell off more. and the june low, which has been a champ over the last couple of days but the interesting stuff if what you want to continue glass half full, markets will not bottom until rates top and it depends on this part of the curve you want to talk

about. and they ground to an area where people are trying to get to terms even though the fed doesn't know that. rates came down a bit today on the short end and out to where we care about in terms wrf the fed may be going so that mega cap tech dynamic is worth talking about because apple is an out liar and to me because of how lil it sold off relative to that group but i'm sure we'll talk about that. >> are you glass shafl full, dan. >> the market will either rip 5% or collapse in a 5% straight line this week that is going to happen between now and friday we're at such a dicey level and something has to give here and when you think about the things that tim was talking about, everybody is focused on rates right now. everybody. they're less focused on the stock market, more focused on rates and that is the thing that to me most of us don't understand the dynamics of rates. they don't understand -- and me includes i've been in the market for 25

years and we pick up a little bit each year, but i guess the issue that i would say is that never in my 25 years have i seen a situation without a crisis right now with a macro really dictating so much of the micro here and that is one of the reasons why i think 5% would be avenue gift if you think to guy's point that we're going to go back to 3400 or possibly below because you're going to lighten up on some things that you finally have the opportunity to do so if you're a trader, you have the opportunity to leg into shorts when the vix comes in below 25 and so option premium will seem kind of reasonable here. but i'm also in the camp, we're just not done. if i think of the last two times that i remember that the s&p 500 got cut in half during a recession, obviously you have to go back to 2000 and 2002 and then the financial crisis of '07 and the lows of '09. we're down 25% the s&p was up 28% last year >> you're not saying we could

get cut in half. >> we could. but it is going to take time but it is going to take time. >> that is wiping out every that we made for the pandemic. >> the last times that the s&p got cut in half interest rates were at zero now they've gone up precipitously in a short period of time we've ever seen arise like that. >> are you saying cut in half from the all-time high, not from a level -- which is not out of the realmof possibility given the environment that we find ourselves in a lot of people, and i'm not one of these people so please i'm big begging you, don't get on my on twitter, but there are people that i like that have used the krsh word. and i saw it when i was in sicily, not italy over the last couple of weeks. and dan is right it is going to move one way or another violently. but the point is when you start to see the direction, don't fade it so you see a market up a percent

and a half, chances are it will develop to the upside. that is environment we're in. >> and i think the message is patience i think we're all saying that. the market, part of the problem for traders is it hasn't been violent yet. it seems awful and it is awful because if you think about it we started this move in themiddle part of 2021 when we talk about high multiple tech, rick hietsman is on and if you look at markets overall, we're out of place here and back to the numbers on the s&p. in prepandemic levels we were at 3400-ish before we went into the sell-off that went no the stratosphere high. but that is a market that in february of 2020 has rallied 20% off lows into the last year and some of that was fired by the fed actually seeing rates collapse around the world and we started to ease in already so you could make an argument that those pre-pandemic levels at 3400 were inflated and make an argument that closer to your

proceed pandemic level is really around 3,000. >> that is one of the reason we've seen the vix so muted. we haven't seep that big woosh we've seen death by a thousand paper cuts in terms of moves lower. >> right this does sort of seem to be the range. dan's point, about 5% up or down, we could see both. right. that wouldn't be -- i mean it would be volatile. >> that is market we've had. plus 8% or 9%. >> i just hope the up is first. >> the way you're positioned let's get to the chart master. we're talking about levels so why not. carter braxton worth is here i know you've been listening to our conversation intently. what do you think. >> you're citing see levels. 3400 being the pre-pandemic high but before we look at charts the question is are we oversold and any oscillator one might use the answer might be yes.

but if anything the stock currency commodity index has not gone lower in three and a half months could it be over sold. by definition no if we're not gone lowner three and a half months, we haven't oversold my hufnch is we break and let's look at some charts. the here and now s&p i've cycled the lows does it crack? i'm in the crack camp. we're right at those lows. and here is the tell it is not the s&p, it is the constituents 58% of the constituents themselves are already below their june 16th low. and in fact consider this, if you look at the median performance of all stocks since june, the median stock is down.7% from the index is masking what is going on underneath the surface. look at the next chart it is long-term. several of you referred to the 3400 level that is the pre-pandemic level

and even tim said maybe that was inflated so the all country world index has gone down to the pre-covid high and i think the s&p follows suit so you're look at 7% and at that point we're down about 30 from the peak look at the same chart another way. head and shoulders, a big inverted cup and handle. and so it doesn't matter how you draw the lines, and the question is could we go a lot lower the final chart, you'll see it here next looks at the '09 low to where we are now. we've been ascending in this perfect channel for the better part of 15 years and we're just now to the midpoint we're breaking into the lower band how far we sink into the lower band is the question were we to get all the way to the bottom of the lower band that is also a number you just heard tim references about 3,000 and that is about where that comes into play. >> 3,000 is the lower band if that is the scenario, then

would most of the damage be done in the mega cap portion of the market >> well, typically what happens in a real wipeout, there are two areas that get hit the worst and think about why. things have done the worst people abandon them, what am i doing in this thing and it is terrible and then things that have held up very well people say i should get out of this i have to save my money. it is a bar bell the holdouts come and those that were always lagging really sink, the value that gets even cheaper. >> carter, it is tim i refer to the semis and if you look at that relative chart to the s&p, we're at critical levels for the last five years getting that market leadership now, has it broken through >> yeah, the semis an the index is below the june low. the transport and the industrials. semis have led almost every term

even in '09 and '07. semi starts to stabilize i don't see that yet look at intel, it is just in free-fall. >> so, what are the relative safety areas, carter >> if there are any. >> the playbook, day one in business skool or page one of your first manual your first job from your first boss and you have utilities and health care. >> expensive >> but like apple, that might be holding up better than others. >> so you're going to stick with apple then all right. carter thanks. carter worth pick your safety play. pick your safety play. >> that is what we're doing? >> a new game. do we have a graphic. >> we don't nide a graphic i'm just asking a question. >> over what time period. >> in the ride to a 3200 let's say, what is gooding to hold up

we'll talk about this later but health care to me is still a place that you could be reasonable valuations across the space. that i don't think it will be impervious to a market sell-off. >> if we're waiting for rates to settle down, what is going to be that catalyst for rates to settle down. we've got craziness looking around the world if you look at 30-year guilt, we have levels not seen since 1998. what is going on in fixed income broadly is just unprecedented. >> yeah, and again, we keep hearing this expression by people who get the macro stuff better than we do that something is about to break. and if you look at what has gone on in the british tab, we've been talking about the euro, the 20 year the intervention there with the yen there are things going on where stock markets are a pawn and we're trying to find out individual names and really it comes down to mike

wilson who comes on the show for morgan stanley they're coming down year-over-year, i think 9% growth was expected and now consensus about 7.5% you tell me what right multiple is in a recessionary environment and we haven't hit the recession yet. and do you want put 14, 15 times and he has $2 -- or 212 in earnings for next year and you get below 3,200 and that is not far from guy's level so nothing is going in a straight line and the c word is a dangerous word especially this time of the year i don't think we go down there like that with a crash >> i didn't know >> no, you made me say it. i don't want to say it i don't want the headline to be that but it is one step forward, two steps back in bear markets like this. >> and the c word could be double c or c squared and constant currency and all we hear about is the dollar but in

constant currency terms what will they cut. we know the dollar has been a beast and is certainly a major head wind and i think that at some point becomes a tail wind the dollar is so overbought. it doesn't mean it couldn't go further with the deferentials in policy but i haven't heard talk of budget cuts as it relates to enterprise or software, that hasn't flows through any of the mega cap tech companies. forget about the dollar. how about constant currency, some of the companies the life blood of the move. apple has outperformed the s&p by 175% over the last five years. it is clearly been a major boost to the entire market place and i just don't think that's comps are things we could hold off. >> if a company like microsoft is taking a hard look at work force and telling employees not to travel and be careful with your expenses, when are we going to hear we're not buying as much technology, right. at some point that follows

logically that follows not saying it has to but logically it would. >> that makes perfect sense. but we come back to a couple of times about the big cap tech companies have never been expense sort of focused on expenses and so i feel like that is one area where they -- if they can't find -- >> google sounds like they are that is all they talk about. >> and facebook in some way are spending money but cutting back in other areas that is a driver but it is hard to think, oh, enterprise spent will be completely -- >> untouched. >> and the one piece of the puzzle that the fed hasn't solved for yet is unemployment and we know that they want that higher so if you're a software company that you sell seats and licenses to the seats. >> and if you have fewer heads. >> that is coming and these companies are in the forefront of reducing cost and head count over the last few months and i think you'll see the customers

do that as last piece of the puzzle. >> the stock close the at 255 and beelined to 242 and they're seeing we're not seeing a slow down and it went to 295 and everybody felt great about the quarter which we said was not particularly great now it the as 236 and it is actually trading at if exactly what the four of you were just talking about right now. we're going to see a slow down in enterprise. and that is good thing because that is the last piece of this puzzle but it is going to be painful getting there. >> at the level right now it is already incorporated a pull back in demand. >> yes. >> so therefore if we do hear it, it is a priced opportunity. >> i don't think it is priced in yet. >> and again it gets back to multiples on the s&p which are a function of where interest rates are. let's be clear, our discount rights are much higher levels. you got to almost 4% on the ten-year and you could do the math. but what is the e going to be there and as guy pointed out, we

haven't --are you telling me we're still in positive eps growth pointing to 23 over 22. i just, i'm not buying it. i'm just not buying it and that interest rate are that much higher look at the buying power of the rest of the world when the dollar is at 20 year highs that is the one part, what is the multiple you want to pay but what is the earnings profile we haven't gotten there. >> so we'll start to come up to earnings season soon i think we're in this market where things will trade down on bad earnings, even in this -- even if a competitor announced and with you down on that and then it will go down again and until we see this, you know, bad news finally doesn't move a stock any more that will be more of a bottom than just a trading bottom. >> right coming up, mortgage ma, the 30 year jumping over 7% as rates

ean for home prices. and it is not just the housing market how about tech stocks be impacted reich hietsman digs into what he sees next of the space that interview in moments. do not go anywhere "fast money" is back in two.

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got a news alert on lyft steve has the story. >> yeah, lyft is pausing all u.s. hiring according to the new york hpost they say during the cpier that pausing higher through the end of the year. now this is for corporate employee not drivers but they are confirming they're pausing u.s.-based rolls through the end of the year. >> steve, thanks steve kovak with that update on lyft we're just talking about this. about these layoffs that have still yet to hit the numbers dan nathan >> i mean pausing is not laying off. so let's just say, there might be even in this nut thing where you see some attrition

but again, think that the story of the q4 guidance given the lack of visibility is cost reductions and the easiest place to do that right now is head count. >> tim >> i think hearing about some fiscal, whether it is not austerity, but what we've wanted to hear from the tech sector for a while now. so it doesn't change the demand out look for lyft. i don't think oh, boy when i hear that. this is a stock that i added to today. so to be clear and i'm going to talk about it later in the show in an exciting seg segment but i don't want to give too much away. >> i think you just did. >> so i'm just simply say -- >> but it is not lyft. >> i should just stop talking. but the bottom line here is sths a company that -- this is a company that has had a 50% move higher and a major pullback. the story has been about finding drivers. getting a hole into their business and seeing the asp stop dropping and that is something we've already started to see.

>> let's move on we'll hear much more about lyft later. >> that is so exciting. >> an exciting now segment bond yields surging this afternoon and mortgage rates are crossing into new territories. diana joins us now with the numbers. >> melissa, we are in the 7s the average rate on the 30-year fixes at 7.08% according to mortgage news daily. that is the first time it has been that high in almost 20 years. but what is striking is how fast it is risen. all the way from 3% in january and now more than doubling the last time that happened was in july of 1980. whether it shot up from from 12% to 18%. >> that took a year and a half it doubled from the mid-70s to 1981 but again a longer time horizon. so back in time from 1980 to '83, look at what happened to home sales they fell by half until rates pulled back in june of 1982. prices did not drop so much

because of rising rents. as for today, home sales are falling now as well. but really the story is prices pulling back so fast the s&p report out this morning shows prices in july still up over 14% from the year before and down from 18% gain in june and the biggest drop in the annual zban month to month in the history of the survey. they noted last week that prices fell from july to august which they usually do but they fell at 3 times the historical pace. so i think the big story here is prices, melissa. >> thank you, diana. not good news for housing. whether it be home builders or the real estate companies. >> mortgage originators. >> it is good news, bad news the good news is affordability is coming down but rates are twice what they were months ago. which is staggering. the conversation at beginning of the show about the absurdity of the bond market that people are starting to figure out now

so this will continue. affordability will continue to come in. rates will continue to grind higher i do don't know where it stops but it ain't stopping here. >> home depot or lowe's. >> the inventory now is probably very high cost inventory commodity prices -- >> they have to come down. >> and it is an accounting issue but the margins have to be getting squeezed so more bad news i'm long home depot and lowe's, it is not an ideal place to be right now. >> i think home depot and lowe's relative to a market multiple trades at a discount and home depot a a slight premium i think lowe's is the place you want to be in the commitment that they've made to their digital and loyalty and their professional business is interesting. but at some point the interest rate dynamic is there is ome so much home equity in your loan and those numbers also are resolving and repet every time you move higher.

and the pain around that is not yet bitten. >> is there a silver lining to this i know people say what is the silver lining to 7%. i'm going to pay 7% on a mortgage it is working. what the fed is doing is working. it is throwing grit into the housing market those are one of the things that are sticky if we see this work then maybe the fed has less to to. >> could i get in here for a second. >> yeah, of course >> if it works, if it also works that unemployment goes up and tim just mentioned these adjustable rate mortgages, you just think about the loss of disposable income. this has echoed of 2007 and '08. it was a different thing that was on the balance sheets of a lot of the banks. but if you think about the consumer that kept this economy afloat, we're on the precipice of them having much less purchasing power than they have in decades. >> what do they call that thing that people go to on the

weekends before -- >> brunch. >> brunch. and you love -- you're a brunch person you probably order a beautiful omelet and the presentation is extraordinary. but what has to happen to get to that omelet? mel? >> three mimosas. >> no. you have to crack a few eggs and that is the part we're going through now. >> so we're heading to brunch. it is just cracking the eggs. >> i crack extraordinarily well. there is an art to it. one handed don't get any shells. >> can you separate? >> that is a tough one there is a device for that where you goat theolk. >> you think think about some egg whites. >> i don't know what that means. >> there is more "fast money" to come here is what is coming up next. >> announcer: terrible, that is the word from the next guest who said the tough times won't laugh. the space where he sees great companies emerging plus canaly's car care

the tesla bull praising the ev maker yet again. and she has a revved up out look for the space. the details ahead. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site 'rba rhtft te. wee ckig aerhis. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

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deploying more money rick heitzman, it is great to see you. >> great being back on set. >> it is good to have you on set in person. in terms of rising rates how does that play into how you deploy money and how you value companies right now? >> it is really effecting everything in the last 25 years i've been doing this you haven't seen a more tumultuous time. there is no ipos on the road or testing the waters and now that will continue to decrease until rates settle if there is no ipos, there is no liquidity and then there is not much capital to invest. >> so you have money to de play and i'm wondering in terms of private market valuations in companies that you will invest in, how are valuations holding up because on the one hand you hear about companies, they don't have access to capital, they need the money desperately. and then examples like a fig ma

which is a huge premium. >> fig ma is an aberration but we're seeing a market close for public financing and large on the m&a side. the large public tech companies are afraid to buy folks both for regulatory reasons and also they're unsure of their own valuation. so in the world where the valuations are moving all around there is not the stocking horse of an ipo saying i'm going to take this company public if you don't buy me today try it and there is not much going on and the lack of liquidity is cutting off that oxygen for emerging companies. >> and so you have this capital deployed and the history is these tumultuous times there is mega trends that come out of them. if you go back and think in the wake of the financial crisis there was a convergence of mobile and social and prbroadba, what are the trends you're focused on right now

>> this is a great time to start a company. you're seeing more talent come together you're seeing a more reasonable culture of thrift being built in companies built out of recessions so we're excited we signed two term sheets in the last week. at companies of very normalized valuations so the mega trends is an ongoing march on the enterprise side of ai, artificial intelligence and machine learning that trend is going to play in over the next cycle because it is also a return on investment cost cutting analysis. on the consumer side we're seeing growth in games and even a disruption in major categories like health care with companies like roman and financial services with companies like extra. >> and you mentioned rates being a factor but it is not the absolute rate. that makes a difference. but it is the volatility around it but there is no signs that this is ending, we're almost two year news a ridiculously absurd volatile bond market and i don't see it abating any time soon. >> it is not and until it abates you don't get to normal rules of road.

whether it is the m&a or the financial side, it is a function of having some rules of the road and how high are interest rates are going to go and people feel comfortable valuing new ipos, either wise their focused on all of the money they laost on last year's ipos. >> it sounds like it is hard to think about valuations on the public market side and so i'm wonder when you see people make the case of it is time to get in on an x, y and z company, is it just too earl dwri because of the volatility out there. >> it depends on how long your time horizon is. wee pride on taking the longest view in the room and having a ultra long time horizon. if year at the early stages, it is it the great time to get in because it is five to ten years before we get liquidity. if you're a growth investor, it is a difficult time because you don't know if that is six months

or six years so you're able to get liquid >> great to speak with you thank you for coming by. rick heitzman of first mark. that gets at problem that investors have particularly growth investors. the higher multiple areas of the market, about a price do you pay for that at in point, karen? >> less for sure >> yeah, less for sure >> right. >> but what is the right time and the multiple. >> that is such a good question. i think that is what will the market bear. you used to be able to do a deck together and never do a down round but that dynamic has changed dramatically. >> i would say rick mentioned the fig ma and you get opportunities from dislocation i bet guy has been talking about this company for years but that move in adobe is extraordinary i think it is over done. and software companies are totoft tough. and then companies like sfoe flake that have made money and these are the places you want to be picking over. >> adobe, the run-up in

earnings, the last one has been dramatic dan flagged this a few times over the years but to tim's point it is an extraordinarily important company. valuation still not where it needs to be. getting a lot closer which is a good thing. all of this as painful as it is, it is a necessary evil >> coming up, kathy's car call, the ark invest doubling down on her favorite ev stock. where she sees the space heading next and the lxdef, hitting a low how their playing it straight ahead. "fast money" is back after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. check out the lxd, the corporate bond etf hitting a fresh 52-week low. this is a worrisome sign for the health of the credit market. they were one of the most active names in the options market. mike khouw has the action on this >> it was the fourth busiest etf actually, only following spy and iwm. it traded 34 times it is average daily put volume and the average contract were

the october 30 puts -- 90 puts excuse me. trading for about 50 cents and included in that was 140 of the 90, 80 put spreads and they're future weakness and lxd is touching levels we haven't seen since the credit crisis. >> you've been watching this karen. >> i've been short this a long time a lot of this move is oshs rates and the credit part is starting to tick up if you look at hyg, there is still plenty of credit room to move >> and yet that hyg not to far off the pandemic lows. but the high yield interest rate moves are more extraordinary when you consider the businesses and their inability and the bigger growth headwinds and if you look at high jeyield and go look this up online high yield oes, we're getting back 520

spread over and this is back near the wides near the june lows and they're higher, conceivably the spreads should get higher than that. >> credit has been a concern again that is one of the final shoes to drop. and we're not there yet. but lxd, we've been pointing it out, who is the guy from pennsylvania that comes on a good looking guy >> the general. >> general >> he has a nice office too. >> it is stark. >> it is decorated now. >> it has flowers he stole from the lobby. mike, thank you. mike khouw, tune into "options action" at 5:30 p.m. friday eastern time and what cathie wood has to say about the next steps in the ev rate and throughout hispanic heritage month we're celebrating. here is one of our cnbc executive producers. >> being a hispanic migrant has shaped everything i've gone to

get where i am now my parents boarded a plate from argentina with two daughter and two suitcases to give us opportunities we may not have had otherwise. it was bold and occourageous if my mom could be a doctor in a new language and there is nothing i can't do and i don't give up and i never shy away especially from challenges embrace your story and use it to drive you.

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of tesla topping the tape today. closing up 2.5% higher getting a boost after cathie wood doubled down on her rosie out look for the stock here is what she said to say on "squawk box" this morning. >> we're pretty excited about the next five years. i think this year there will be almost 8 million evs sold around the world. we think that goes to 60 million in five years and we think tesla is in the driver's seat.

>> so what do you think of these levels, dan? at one point you were short. >> still it is not fun. i mean, listen, i'll just say this about as gently as i can she's been wrong about dozens of stocks like horribly wrong. so this one, i just -- again, you know where i stand on this one. i just don't know why you would listen to that and buy the stock. look at chart. we know that the s&p and nasdaq are down 15% in the last few weeks and this thing barely budges. >> and in our mega cap to start the show, this fell off the top because it is the six. >> largest company in the world. but outside of apple it is the other standout it is down 33% but in this environment based upon the multiple, the dynamic about where the ev world is going why i wouldn't want to own it. there is no question about where the world is on ev ford is making a -- they're a very distant second. but that market share, that leadership is very much in the price.

and i think that is part of where they got that multiple and in the environment of long duration stocks, tesla to me is the poster child of that >> are we too harsh in judging cathie wood? she's wrong, yes the returns on her funds are terrible the timing of it is wrong. and maybe longer term, it will play out. >> the critics of cathie wood. >> and there have been money. >> yes. >> have been cervic. >> i haven't heard that word before. >> it is a good word and and it doesn't mean their wrong. it is almost impossible to be in wrong as these names as she is doesn't mean she's not brilliant or wouldn't come back again. but for last 18 months, coinciding with michael bury's call to short everything cathie wood and tesla when he was spot on it is been miserable >> i mean, it is unfortunate

obviously the timing of interest rate moves is -- that is the underlying sort of ballast for the entire portfolio of don't make money yet, but we'll be gigantic in the future so i mean, the tide is really -- it is going against her. she's always about how could you be short innovation and then i always think, okay, but is there a price at which innovation is not -- it too expensive. for me that was a long time ago. >> right coming up, everyone loves fast money but what will slow money so don't let the name fool you traders have some hot long-term investment picks those names are next "fast money" is back right after this the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes,

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>> i wonder what tim is going to say. >> i have no idea. >> i'm excited to hear >> people have been hanging on i think ratings just waiting for this segment and it is a new segment. so it is slow money. >> hopefully it goes slowly. >> so let's continue the lyft story. >> just a thumbnail. >> let's give some ground to some other people. the next five years are the reason why you own lyft because it is a global leader in transportation it is not just ride share, it is bikes and scooters and the partnerships and the driver issues an the asps i'm not worried about. the growth rate of 25% over the next five years an the operational leverage in this model, this is absolutely, this is it doesn't matter that it is down 70%, it is well positioned for the future and i think a lot of noise out of covid will be in the rear view mirror >> wow >> down whatever percentage from

highs is meaningless for this particular exercise it is where it is here and where it will be in five years so karen what is your slow money play. >> my slow money play is an etf. it is the xlv, which at top of the show guy was in agreement with that. a lot of reasons the valuation is atrackive right here and the balance sheets are in great shape. you have a nondiscretionary demand for the products and for a lot of great yields so so i think this is a good place to hideout. i'm here. >> that is a karen name. but i didn't read the instructions on the email and i didn't realize it was today. >> what do you mean? >> i think you have to mind the gap. i think you'll have better opportunities to buy any of these things and i'll you'll google here, alphabet, and they're expected to be up. earnings this year expected to be down. so expectations have already come down. next year expected to be 12% earnings growth, and 13% sales growth 68% gross margin and 10% in cash

and here is the thing guys there is a gap there is going to be a realization that the 2023 numbers are not going to be what consensus is right now you'll have an opportunity to buy a stock like this better and when you get that gap it is not a one quarter, it is going to take two quarters to work out. so the stock trading at 97 and the consensus target is 143 and there is 48 buys and three holds and no sells sentiment hasn't shifted yet so you'll have an opportunity to buy google and then buy it in the 80s and hold it for five years. >> when i was in college, i took a final exam my senior year. >> and you didn't read the instructions. >> and i didn't read the instructions and i was so excited when i read the first part and i know this and i started to write and i handed it in and then a professor called me in later and said you didn't read the instructions but i did such a great job, that is what dan just did that is exactly what dan just did. i didn't get a good grade. do you want a grade dan. >> a "c". >> i wish i got a "c" in that

class. i say this all time, gandhi could be president and defense spending will go higher lockheed martin that is where you want to be in this game. >> all right a c that is not great inflation. >> you give it a "a". >> if you answer the wrong question on an exam. >> it was nuanced. >> awanyy. we have final trades up next

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>> announcer: final trade is sponsored by interactive brokers. the professionals gateway to the world's markets. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn, tim. >> this is an environment for slow money it is also an environment for j&j. it is the eight largest company in the world and is very defensive and will continue to be. >> karen. >> i'm not a market timer but every once in a while it seems like things are out of whack and over done to the down side i bought some spider calls. >> dan >> i suck at that. i try to do it not well, market timing i'm a little yerl i that the yields will come in but that is my take today.

>> and the image in the rearview mirror, it is the atlanta, braves, tim, amgn. >> thank you for watching "fast money," it is someone having everything here on set we'll see yo my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. some people want to make friend, some people want to make money my job is to entertain, teach you what is becoming a big market call me or tweet me